黄仁勋在会面中还向特朗普秀出图表，说明关税对提高美国自产芯片会造成反效果，试图为业者解套。 特朗普不久后宣布，在美设厂芯片业者可免除100%半导体进口关税。 美国总统特朗普允许英伟达H20芯片销陆，尽管销售额15%需上缴政府，引起各界议论，但当中英伟达 执行长黄仁勋的角色尤其让人无法忽略。特朗普的第一任期与先前拜登政府都以国安为由，避免向大陆 出售高科技组件；特朗普改变心意，可能与黄仁勋的游说本领有关。 美媒报导指出，特朗普约一周前在白宫会晤黄仁勋，要求H20在陆销售额的20%上缴联邦政府，以取得 出口许可，但科技幕僚们事前完全不知情。特朗普告诉黄仁勋："如果我同意放行，你必须给我回 报。"黄仁勋在中国市场与空手而回两者间做选择，他提出15%的税率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (also known as Foxconn) reported disappointing performance in Q2 2023, with expectations for Q3 indicating a decline in communications product shipments, primarily due to earlier inventory buildup to avoid U.S. tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Q2 Performance and Q3 Outlook - In Q2 2023, Hon Hai's performance was below expectations, with a forecast for Q3 indicating a seasonal decline in communications products, which are primarily related to iPhone assembly [1] - Analysts noted that this decline is unusual and may be attributed to Apple's strategy of pulling forward orders in the first half of the year to mitigate tariff risks [1] - Typically, September marks the launch of new iPhone models, which boosts revenue for Hon Hai and other manufacturers; however, the current outlook suggests a "weak peak season" for Q3 [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition and Impact - As of Q2 2023, Hon Hai's revenue composition was as follows: information products accounted for 13%, consumer electronics for 7%, and communications products for 60%, with other businesses making up 20% [1] - Given the significant revenue share of communications products, a decline in this segment is expected to lead to an overall revenue decrease for Q3, contradicting the typical seasonal growth [1] - The usual revenue recognition from new iPhone launches in September is anticipated to be less impactful this year due to the cautious outlook on overall iPhone demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in profits, reaching a five-quarter low, and expressed concerns about the demand for AI accelerator projects from North American IDM clients, leading to a forecast of relatively flat revenue performance for the remainder of the year [1][2] Financial Performance - The company announced a net profit of 1.323 billion TWD for Q2, marking a 9.5% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 16.5% decrease year-over-year, with earnings per share at 16.4 TWD [1] - For the first half of the year, consolidated revenue was 19.626 billion TWD, down 18.4% year-over-year, with a net profit of 2.787 billion TWD, a slight decrease of 1% year-over-year, and earnings per share at 34.49 TWD [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates starting revenue from 2nm process projects and expects significant growth from 3nm process AI chips, which are projected to begin mass production in Q1 of next year [1][2] - Despite the current challenges, multiple 3nm process projects are expected to launch in the second half of the year, along with the initiation of 2nm process projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) has revised its forecast for Taiwan's semiconductor output to over NT$6.4 trillion for this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 22%, primarily driven by strong growth in foundry services, with TSMC playing a pivotal role in this growth [1] Group 1: Current Year Performance - TSIA initially revised the semiconductor output forecast in May to NT$6.3 trillion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with foundry services showing a leading growth rate of 23.8% [1] - The latest revision indicates a projected output of NT$6.4 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.2% [1] - For Q3, the semiconductor output is expected to reach NT$1.67 trillion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%, with IC manufacturing expected to grow by 7.3% [1] Group 2: Q2 Performance Analysis - In Q2, IC manufacturing output surpassed NT$1 trillion, reaching NT$1.06 trillion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.4%, marking the best performance [1] - IC packaging output was NT$115.5 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, while IC testing output was NT$55.8 billion, also growing by 8.2% [1] - IC design output was NT$359.5 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.7%, indicating the weakest performance among the sectors [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Looking ahead to 2025, the output of Taiwan's IC manufacturing sector is projected to reach NT$4.36 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, which is above the industry average, primarily driven by foundry services [2]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's advanced process expansion is driving a surge in demand for precision drilling equipment for printed circuit boards (PCBs), benefiting major domestic PCB equipment manufacturers such as Dongtai, Takizawa, End, Daliang, and Zhisheng [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Dongtai Group has actively entered the AI server equipment manufacturing sector, with its PCB drilling machines being utilized by major AI server manufacturers [1] - In the past 20 years, Dongtai has sold nearly 200,000 PCB devices, integrating into the supply chain of major PCB manufacturers, with AI servo boards being significant clients [1] - Dongtai's PCB drilling machines are fully booked for shipments from July to October, with an order backlog of approximately 3 billion [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Dongtai anticipates that the demand for PCBs used in AI servers will continue to drive customer purchasing intentions, expected to last until the first half of 2026 [1] - Daliang reports full capacity in the second half of the year, with orders extending into next year, projecting an optimistic operational growth of 80% to 90% compared to last year [1]

Group 1 - Norway's sovereign fund has significantly increased its investments in Taiwan's optical communication sector, particularly in companies like Guangsheng (光圣) and Lianya (联亚), with shareholding ratios growing by over 50% [1] - Guangsheng's shareholding ratio rose from 1.17% to 3.27%, while Lianya's increased from 3.16% to 4.86%, making Lianya one of the top two holdings in Taiwan stocks for the fund [1] - The fund has also newly added positions in three other optical communication stocks: Borowei (波若威), Shangquan (上诠), and Huaxingguang (华星光), with respective shareholding ratios of 0.59%, 1.41%, and 1.29% [1] Group 2 - The transition from NVIDIA's H100 to GB300 AI server platforms is expected to drive a new data transmission revolution, leading to increased demand for optical communication as traditional copper wires become obsolete [2] - Silicon photonics is anticipated to become mainstream in the AI era, attracting significant investments from global sovereign funds [2]

Group 1 - The core outlook of the company indicates a short-term weakness but long-term growth potential, with expectations of significant revenue increases from 3nm AI chips starting in Q1 next year [1] - Demand for 5nm AI accelerator projects from North American IDM customers is currently not ideal, but the company anticipates revenue from 2nm projects to begin soon [1] - The company expects stable quarterly revenue performance until the end of this year, with multiple 3nm projects set to launch in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The company is optimistic about the gross margin improvement due to increased NRE income and price support from major suppliers [1] - In the automotive sector, progress has been made in ADAS chips, with significant orders expected to contribute to revenue as one of the top three sources next year [1] - The company expresses confidence that the gross margin in 2026 will at least match or exceed that of 2024, despite anticipated increases in production volume next year [1] Group 3 - The company highlights a strong and sustainable outlook for its key customer until 2029, driven by the mass production of 3nm projects and interest in next-generation chip projects [2] - Although specific details regarding next-generation chip collaborations were not disclosed, the company has a more optimistic view on 2nm projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASUS is optimistic about the development of its AI server business, forecasting mass production of the GB300 model by the end of the current quarter and has secured large orders from several international cloud service providers [1][2] Group 1: Financial Outlook - ASUS's CFO predicts a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter increase in PC business revenue for the current quarter, while component and server business performance is expected to remain flat compared to the previous quarter [1] - The company anticipates that the revenue distribution between the first and second halves of the year will be approximately 55:45 or 52:48, with third-quarter revenue expected to grow, driven by high-end gaming products and the upcoming Xbox release [1] - Excluding the impacts of tariffs and exchange rates, ASUS is confident in achieving a 4-5% operating margin target for the full year [1] Group 2: AI Server Business - The revenue contribution from AI server business reached double digits in Q1, increasing to 15% in Q2 with the successful mass production of the GB200 model, and is expected to continue growing with the GB300 model's production starting at the end of Q3 [1][2] - ASUS has made significant breakthroughs in acquiring large orders from major cloud service providers in both the Asia-Pacific region and Europe and the US [2] Group 3: PC Business Performance - The growth in ASUS's PC business during the first half of the year was primarily driven by the gaming and commercial markets, with gaming revenue increasing by 40% and commercial PC revenue rising by 45% year-over-year [2] - The company expects continued strength in gaming-related business in the second half of the year, particularly with the launch of the ROG Xbox Ally series in collaboration with Microsoft [2] - ASUS is optimistic about the momentum in AI PCs and plans to introduce a wider range of models at various price points in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is implementing a new revenue model by extracting 15% from companies' revenues in exchange for lifting export restrictions on advanced computer chips to China, which could lead to significant financial implications for companies like NVIDIA and AMD [2][3][4] - NVIDIA could potentially generate over $20 billion in revenue from selling 1.5 million H20 chips to China, resulting in a $3 billion payment to the U.S. Treasury, while AMD may contribute around $1 billion based on its revenue from the Chinese market [2] - This model of revenue sharing could extend beyond chip manufacturers, affecting various sectors as federal agencies might adopt similar practices, leading to a shift in how companies interact with regulatory bodies [3][4] Group 2 - The 15% revenue sharing could reduce gross margins for companies like NVIDIA and AMD by 5 to 15 percentage points, impacting their financial performance and stock valuations [3] - Larger companies may be able to absorb these costs, but smaller enterprises could struggle, potentially stifling competition and innovation in the industry [4] - The precedent set by the U.S. could encourage other countries to implement similar fees, creating a global trend of protectionist measures that could further complicate international trade dynamics [5][6]

合理看待季节性波动 "在半年末、年末等重要时点，经济金融数据经常会因各种原因波动加大，同时数据也会受到暂时 性的外生冲击因素扰动。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，我国6月、7月信贷数据波动，与金融 机构上半年报表披露和实体企业结算窗口期有很大关系。 一方面，6月临近金融机构半年报披露，部分机构会出现短期调整信贷投放节奏、拉高数据的情 况。另一方面，6月是企业半年期经营结算的重要时间窗口，大量企业面临货款回收、债务偿还、资金 清算等刚性需求，这种阶段性的资金流动高峰也会反映在信贷数据上。 温彬表示，7月是明显的信贷小月，以往每年7月制造业、建筑业PMI平均水平分别比6月低1.2个、 1.1个百分点。同时，部分银行工作人员倾向于将半年末前后的信贷投放前置到6月完成，也对7月贷款 读数带来一定扰动。"观察贷款数据不能只看当月增量或环比变化，还应从贷款的累计增量、余额增速 等维度综合分析。"温彬说，从余额增速看，7月末贷款余额同比增长6.9%，仍明显高于名义经济增 速，反映了一段时间以来信贷对实体经济的支持力度是稳固的。 "考虑到今年地方政府债券置换对贷款数据影响较大，还原相关影响后，7月人民币贷款增速仍明显 高 ...