Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve cautiously lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with internal disagreements on future policy paths, highlighting tensions between fiscal and monetary authorities [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly urged the Federal Reserve to implement significant rate cuts by year-end, indicating a divergence in policy approaches [1] - Domestic liquidity remains loose, with the LPR stable and the central bank injecting over 260 billion yuan, but the real estate sector continues to drag down the economy and aluminum consumption [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum prices show a divergence, with LME aluminum prices increasing by $73/ton (2.80%) while domestic Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 65 yuan/ton (0.32%) [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing structural demand differentiation, with weak demand in construction profiles but slight recovery in cables and plates, leading to inventory accumulation despite the traditional peak season [3][7] - The domestic alumina market is characterized by oversupply and price pressure, with spot prices down 205 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and futures prices down 140 yuan/ton to 2868 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Real Estate and Consumption Trends - Real estate development investment in China decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with residential investment down 11.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector [5] - New housing sales area fell by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down 7.3%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5] - The real estate development climate index stands at 93.05, indicating a contraction in the sector's health [5] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between acknowledging labor market weaknesses and inflation risks, while China's macroeconomic policy remains accommodative [6] - The aluminum market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with upward price potential constrained by oversupply and macroeconomic pressures, while seasonal demand and policy stimuli may provide some support [7] - Market participants are advised to focus on inventory trends and actual consumption levels, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies to manage risks [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a "peak season with weak performance" situation, facing a prominent contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand." The egg price has reached a low level in recent years, and the futures market has been declining to correct the premium. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the lower limit. The main 2510 contract hit a record low. As of the close on Friday, the JD2510 contract was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 lots and an open interest of 434,281 lots [4][13]. (2) Spot Price - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 3.19 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%, but still at a low level in the same period of history. The market showed a pattern of "weak reality," with the core contradiction of "loose supply and weak demand" remaining unresolved. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to relieve the current supply - demand pressure [17]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 2.99 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.57%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%. Since February, the industry has been in deep losses, which has severely dampened the confidence of the breeding side, and the willingness to replenish chicks is poor [21]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.22 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The price decline continued. Due to the pessimistic expectation of the future market, most farmers chose to cull old hens, while some farmers had a wait - and - see attitude [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was about 1.292 billion. It is expected that the number of newly - laid hens in August will be greater than the number of old hen slaughter, and the in - laying hen inventory will continue to increase, increasing the production capacity pressure [30]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The average daily shipping volume in the main producing areas was 6,066.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.94%. The logistics efficiency in the egg - producing areas decreased this week, and the egg price rose and then fell. The market bearish sentiment spread, and the inflow of cold - stored eggs into the market affected the fresh egg sales [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 513,100, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. The average slaughter age was 502 days, unchanged from the previous month. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous losses of farmers and the weakening of confidence in the peak season [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the main selling areas rebounded slightly last week, but the increase in arrival volume did not effectively translate into consumption power, and the market remained weak [45]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: According to statistics, the total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.4307 million, a month - on - month increase of 44.26%. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous low egg price, which severely dampened the breeding confidence, and farmers' culling willingness increased significantly [48]. (3) Inventory - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.87 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.13 days. The egg inventory increased month - on - month, mainly due to the increase in supply from newly - laid hens and the weak terminal demand [52]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 35.85%. The price of corn and soybean meal showed different trends last week [56]. 3. Market Outlook - In August, the laying hen inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the egg price reached a low level in recent years. The futures market continued to decline to correct the premium. Although it has entered the seasonal peak season, the terminal demand boost is far lower than expected, showing a prominent "peak season with weak performance" feature. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [57]. 4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price is high. - **Arbitrage**: Gradually take profit on previous arbitrage orders. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][58].

Core Insights - The egg market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices despite being in the demand peak season, with the main futures contract JD2509 hitting a year-low of 3010 yuan per 500 kg [1] - The core reasons for the price drop are supply-demand imbalance and pessimistic market sentiment [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply levels are high, with the laying hen population reaching 1.3557 billion, a 1.19% increase month-on-month and a 6.197% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in six years [4] - The demand for eggs is slow to start, leading to a situation where the peak season is not performing as expected, causing pressure on producers [3][4] - The ongoing low prices have persisted below the cost line for nearly four months, discouraging producers from replenishing their flocks and increasing the willingness to cull older hens [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current losses in egg production, the extent and duration of the loss cycle are not severe, leading producers to maintain some optimism about future prices [5] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to boost demand, but current market sentiment remains cautious, with traders reluctant to stock up [5] - There is an expectation that prices may rise after September, but the high supply levels and existing inventory will limit the extent of any price increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (also known as Foxconn) reported disappointing performance in Q2 2023, with expectations for Q3 indicating a decline in communications product shipments, primarily due to earlier inventory buildup to avoid U.S. tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Q2 Performance and Q3 Outlook - In Q2 2023, Hon Hai's performance was below expectations, with a forecast for Q3 indicating a seasonal decline in communications products, which are primarily related to iPhone assembly [1] - Analysts noted that this decline is unusual and may be attributed to Apple's strategy of pulling forward orders in the first half of the year to mitigate tariff risks [1] - Typically, September marks the launch of new iPhone models, which boosts revenue for Hon Hai and other manufacturers; however, the current outlook suggests a "weak peak season" for Q3 [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition and Impact - As of Q2 2023, Hon Hai's revenue composition was as follows: information products accounted for 13%, consumer electronics for 7%, and communications products for 60%, with other businesses making up 20% [1] - Given the significant revenue share of communications products, a decline in this segment is expected to lead to an overall revenue decrease for Q3, contradicting the typical seasonal growth [1] - The usual revenue recognition from new iPhone launches in September is anticipated to be less impactful this year due to the cautious outlook on overall iPhone demand [2]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing significant price drops, with CMA's price cuts triggering a more than 5% decline in European shipping rates during trading hours [1] - There are concerns about the upcoming peak season not meeting expectations, raising questions about potential unforeseen challenges, referred to as "black swans" [1] Group 1 - CMA's price reductions have led to a notable impact on the market dynamics, particularly affecting European shipping lines [1] - The expectation for a robust peak season is being questioned, indicating a potential mismatch between supply and demand [1] - The term "black swan" suggests that unexpected events may be looming, which could further complicate market conditions [1]