研究报告 鸡蛋周报 "旺季不旺"困局难破，蛋价持续探底之路 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周鸡蛋期货盘面破位下行，主力 2510 合约创下上市以来新 低，截至上周五收盘，JD2510 合约报 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.07%， 成交量 526,351 手，持仓 434,281 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 上周鸡蛋市场延续弱势，主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.19 元/斤，虽 环比小幅上涨 5.63%，但仍处于历史同期低位，呈现"旺季不旺" 特征。周内短暂补库带动价格试探性反弹，但受新开产蛋鸡持续 增加及终端需求疲软影响，"供强需弱"矛盾依然突出，现货价 格最终承压阴跌。养殖持续亏损严重打击行业信心，补栏意愿低 迷，鸡苗均价环比下跌 2.29%至 2.99 元/羽，种蛋利用率仅约 50%。 同时淘汰鸡价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (also known as Foxconn) reported disappointing performance in Q2 2023, with expectations for Q3 indicating a decline in communications product shipments, primarily due to earlier inventory buildup to avoid U.S. tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Q2 Performance and Q3 Outlook - In Q2 2023, Hon Hai's performance was below expectations, with a forecast for Q3 indicating a seasonal decline in communications products, which are primarily related to iPhone assembly [1] - Analysts noted that this decline is unusual and may be attributed to Apple's strategy of pulling forward orders in the first half of the year to mitigate tariff risks [1] - Typically, September marks the launch of new iPhone models, which boosts revenue for Hon Hai and other manufacturers; however, the current outlook suggests a "weak peak season" for Q3 [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition and Impact - As of Q2 2023, Hon Hai's revenue composition was as follows: information products accounted for 13%, consumer electronics for 7%, and communications products for 60%, with other businesses making up 20% [1] - Given the significant revenue share of communications products, a decline in this segment is expected to lead to an overall revenue decrease for Q3, contradicting the typical seasonal growth [1] - The usual revenue recognition from new iPhone launches in September is anticipated to be less impactful this year due to the cautious outlook on overall iPhone demand [2]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing significant price drops, with CMA's price cuts triggering a more than 5% decline in European shipping rates during trading hours [1] - There are concerns about the upcoming peak season not meeting expectations, raising questions about potential unforeseen challenges, referred to as "black swans" [1] Group 1 - CMA's price reductions have led to a notable impact on the market dynamics, particularly affecting European shipping lines [1] - The expectation for a robust peak season is being questioned, indicating a potential mismatch between supply and demand [1] - The term "black swan" suggests that unexpected events may be looming, which could further complicate market conditions [1]