机构：国海证券 1）高品质第三方平台稀缺性凸显，商流变革机遇期有望持续受益：其一，对于即时零售平台而言，核 心诉求为保障服务质量及管控运营成本，顺丰同城具有强大的品牌及资源背书，通过顺丰同城专业第三 方平台保障运力有助于平台平衡服务质量与管理成本；其二，对于商家而言，随着越来越多商家倾向于 加强自身获客渠道，而非依赖中心化平台，顺丰同城的中立第三方的属性有助于拓展全场景客户，在即 时零售行业快速增长背景下或将显著受益。 2）背靠顺丰控股集团，资源协同助力业务开拓：a.同城配送业务方面，与集团生态系统参与者进行战 略合作，为客户打造"仓储+转运+同城即时配送"的一体化供应链解决方案，有助于公司扩大客户覆盖 面并增加客户忠诚度。b.最后一公里配送业务方面，2025年顺丰控股业务量维持较高增长，公司有望获 得更多最后一公里配送订单。2025年6月，公司上修与集团2025年至2026年最后一公里配送服务关联交 易年度上限。 3）持续强化科技能力，赋能效率提升：AI方面，公司积极推进AI基础模型能力多场景应用，推进运营 数字化和AI决策智能化，无人物流方面，公司积极通过低空经济、无人驾驶等前沿技术，增强全链路 履约能力 ...

价值50亿的红包正在向你涌来！ 春节倒计时，大厂红包大战的氛围越来越浓。文心、元宝、千问、豆包，这些在科技圈耳熟能详的AI产品，正试图借助一年一度的春节流量洪峰从极客玩具 升级成大众工具。 熟悉的红包营销手段，却有着截然不同的运营目标：AI的全民化破圈。 当大洋彼岸的OpenAI用GPT-5重塑一切，当Google的Gemini悄然融入数十亿用户的搜索框时，中国的科技大厂们坐不住了。这场被称为"首届AI春节红包 大战"的混战背后，是2025年中国互联网关于AI的集体焦虑，或者说，FOMO（Fear of Missing Out，害怕错过）情绪的集中爆发。 无需多言，红包大战一定会成为AI技术普及的催化剂。十一年前的春节，微信红包引爆移动支付，让全球用户跑步进入无现金支付时代。但现在，一个问题 却不容回避：当前AI产品成熟度到了移动支付当时的状态吗？如果没有，声势浩大的AI红包大战，还能复刻当年移动支付大战的成功叙事吗？ AI红包大战能否复刻移动支付大战？ 回望移动互联网时代那几场经典的红包战役，移动支付、网约车、短视频、外卖都有一个共同特征：加速的是成熟度极高的应用级产品。比如2014年红包 大战爆发时，扫码 ...

下面是个人理解，不一定对。无论是2B还是2C，AI的核心一定是应用，因为这才能让用户付费，所以 最终软件和互联网应用的利润一定远高于芯片。 原因是市场发现即便像谷歌这样的AI大模型第一股，也需要有大笔的资本开支，软件公司从轻模式变成了重 模式。 从价值投资的角度来看，轻模式当然远胜于重模式，因为轻模式是可以随便止损的，重模式则不能犯 错。 比如你今年花了1000亿美元来买硬件做AI，如果一旦发现技术路线错误，那这1000亿美元就白砸了， 都是沉没成本。 巴菲特最讨厌的就是重模式，无论你今年赚了多少钱，都要投入到新一轮军备竞赛里面。五年过去，十 年过去，现金流没变多，只多了一堆不断折旧的资产。 传统上来说，芯片属于重模式，软件和互联网服务属于轻模式，所以后者估值高很多。但目前软件公司 也投入重金甚至负债做AI，那估值模式就要向制造业看齐了。 反过来说，如果软件和互联网应用都赚不到钱，那肯定也没人去买芯片。从商业逻辑看，前者是甲方， 后者是乙方，甲方肯定握有主导权。 虽然目前看是甲方求着乙方买货，但工业社会长期看缺的不是供给而是需求，供给迟早会跟上，到时候 还是甲方爸爸说了算。 但目前的情况则是，软件的生态出现了 ...

机构：国信证券 研究员：曾光/张鲁 事项： 不同于AI 软件，AI 冲刺营侧重于软件与实际教学场景的结合，以提分为产品目标，AI 冲刺营教学效果 近两年已持续验证。2024 年第一届天立启鸣达人AI 冲刺营中，36 名学生中有31 人实现提分，平均实 现提分36 分；而2025 年对将近1000 名学生的最新试点显示，平均已实现提分48 分。同时，2025 年彝 良天立学校AI 冲刺营班级一名学生获清华录取、两名学生获北大录取，创造县域117 年办学史上最优 成绩，AI冲刺营教学效果近两年已持续得到验证。目前来看升学率仍是家长择校时的重要参考指标， 借助AI 冲刺营若能帮助成绩暂时落后的学生提分，一方面能直接作为产品创造收入，另一方面预计能 有效提高学校的平均分和整体升学率，对公司自营学校、托管学校快速建设口碑存在重要意义。 目前公司AI 冲刺营业务仅覆盖其服务学生人数1.3%，后续覆盖率提升空间巨大。随公司AI 冲刺营教学 效果多次验证、塑造口碑，且考虑公司集团校内教学场景的极高准入门槛，我们看好冲刺营项目中期在 集团校内覆盖率提升至10%；同时考虑到截至2025 财年末，集团已向18 所学校提供托管服务， ...

2025 年营业收入同比+11.1%至53.66 亿元，归母净利润同比增长15.5%至4.14 亿元。 关注要点 3C钛材业务前景广阔，有望成为公司重要盈利增长引擎。自苹果公司在IPhone系列首次采用航空级钛合 金边框以来，钛合金在消费电子领域渗透率持续上升，需求前景广阔。公司目前已具备使用绿色"返回 料"生产 TA1/TA10 等多种钛合金牌号的能力，为国内外多家知名消费电子生产商供应边框、中框材 料，是国内3C钛材龙头供应商。公司前瞻布局钛合金粉末产线，为其在3C钛材长期竞争优势夯实基 础。伴随消费电子对钛合金需求回升，我们预期26/27 年3C高端钛材销量同比增速分别为183%/24%。 粉末冶金平台化技术进入收获期，我们预测三大应用场景打造第二成长曲线：1）布局核聚变核心部件 专用材料高硼不锈钢和RAFM低活性钢，前者已实现小批量试产，公司或将长期受益于全球核聚变实验 装置建设浪潮。2）粉末冶金一体化压铸模具可显著延长模具使用寿命，公司有望借此切入新能源汽车 供应链；产品具备差异化优势，未来或持续放量。3）公司采用国内独有冶炼技术攻克高氮合金材料的 氮含量控制等难题；高氮钢已经实现高端轴承、行星滚柱 ...

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index showed a slight increase, closing at 27,274 points with a gain of 0.31%, but trading volume continued to decline, raising concerns about market sustainability [1] - Investors exhibit a clear divergence in sentiment post-Lunar New Year, with bullish investors optimistic about reaching 28,500 points, while bearish investors worry about the sustainability of the current upward trend due to shrinking trading volume [1] - Technical analysis indicates a sell signal predominates, with a sell-to-buy signal ratio of 10:3, and key support at 26,700 points, with a potential drop to 26,100 points if breached [2] Group 2: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi Group's stock price rebounded significantly, closing at 37.1 HKD, with intraday prices nearing the upper Bollinger Band, and trading volume increased [8] - To reach the target of 40 HKD, Xiaomi must break through two key resistance levels: 38.8 HKD and 39.7 HKD [8] - Some investors opted for put options as the stock price rose, indicating concerns about potential short-term pullbacks [9] Group 3: BYD Company - BYD's stock price performed well, reaching 99.15 HKD, with investors focused on whether it can stabilize above the 100 HKD mark and challenge the 110 HKD target [15] - Technical signals are neutral, with key resistance at 103.1 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards 110 HKD [15] - Investors are favoring long-dated call options with a strike price of around 106 HKD, which have a favorable selection in the market [16] Group 4: Ping An Insurance - Ping An's stock price has been fluctuating within a narrow range, closing at 72.5 HKD, with trading volume hitting a recent low [22] - There is a growing bearish sentiment, with some investors believing the stock needs to drop to 69 HKD before a new upward trend can begin [22] - The key support level is at 70.1 HKD, and if breached, the stock may drop to 67.5 HKD, with a sell signal dominating the market [22] Group 5: CNOOC Services - CNOOC Services' stock price reached a new high of 9.57 HKD, but trading volume slightly decreased, indicating a divergence between price and volume [28] - Despite the price breakout, technical signals remain bearish, suggesting caution regarding short-term optimism [28] - The key resistance level is at 9.83 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to a rise above 10 HKD [28] Group 6: Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group's stock price has been hovering at low levels, closing at 446.2 HKD, with expectations for upcoming Spring Festival travel data [35] - The stock is near the lower Bollinger Band, with a slight buy signal prevailing, but the key support level is at 431 HKD, below which a drop to 395 HKD is likely [35] - Investors are advised to wait for stabilization before considering bottom-fishing strategies, with some opting for call options with a strike price of 400 HKD [35]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively rose by midday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.18%. Over 2,700 stocks in the two markets increased, with a total trading volume of 1.33 trillion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - The film and cinema sector experienced a significant decline, dropping 3.05% by midday, with stocks like Huayi Brothers, Hengdian Film, and Bona Film hitting the daily limit down. Other sectors such as grain economy, tax refund stores, community group buying, gaming, short drama interactive games, broadcasting, tourism concepts, and hotel tourism also followed suit with declines exceeding 1% [3]. - The electric grid equipment sector showed strong performance, with companies like Siyi Electric and Sifang Co. reaching new highs, and several stocks including Wangbian Electric, Shun Sodium, and Senyuan Electric hitting the daily limit up. The non-ferrous metals sector was also active, with Xianglu Tungsten gaining three boards in five days and Zhangyuan Tungsten achieving two consecutive boards [3]. - The CPO concept saw renewed strength, with Tianfu Communication rising over 10% to set a new historical high. The gas turbine sector experienced a surge, with Yingliu Co. and Changbao Co. hitting the daily limit up [3]. Price Movements - On February 12, Zhipu announced a structural adjustment to the pricing system of the GLM Coding Plan, with an overall price increase of over 30%. By 2025, China's transformer export value is expected to reach a record 64.6 billion yuan, marking a nearly 36% increase from the previous year [3]. - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide continues to rise, reaching 800,000 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 9.9% and a month-on-month increase of 28.8% [3].

机构：国盛证券 研究员：李宏科/程子怡 圣贝拉是全球领先的家庭护理品牌集团。1）核心业务涵盖高端月子中心、家庭护理服务和女性健康食 品，并已率先拓展至新加坡、美国等全球核心城市。2）截至2025 上半年全球门店达113 家，品牌包括 定位超高端的"圣贝拉"、关注女性心理健康的"艾屿"以及主打年轻市场的"小贝拉"，全面覆盖高净值至 中产客户群体。3）公司25H1 营收4.50 亿元，同比增长25.64%，经调整净利润0.39 亿元，同比增长 126%。2024 年总营收7.99 亿元，同比增长42.64%；其中主业月子中心营收6.78 亿元，占总收入 85.0%，2022-2024 年CAGR 达29.05%，24 年主业毛利率31.8%；家庭护理服务与食品业务亦分别以 CAGR 40.61%和32.34%的高速扩张。 风险提示：宏观经济波动及行业需求变化风险；行业竞争加剧及新生儿数量下行风险；海外及新业务拓 展不及预期风险。 未来，公司将在持续开店、延长产业链条、发展AI 方面开拓业务。1）继续扩展中国及海外月子中心版 图。计划至2030 年内地门店数接近翻倍，并扩张到全球核心国际城市。2）同时积极拓展产后修 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shuangliang Energy surged after announcing it received orders related to SpaceX, but the company later clarified that these orders represent a minimal revenue impact, leading to regulatory warnings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1][4][10]. Group 1: Company Announcement and Market Reaction - Shuangliang Energy announced it secured three overseas orders for the SpaceX Starship launch base, which significantly boosted its stock price, reaching a closing price of 10.71 yuan and a total market value of 20.068 billion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of over 46% [1][3]. - The company stated that the orders were a continuation of previous cooperation, reflecting high trust from overseas clients in its products [3]. Group 2: Revenue Impact and Clarification - The total value of the three orders is approximately 13.923 million yuan, accounting for only 0.11% of the company's audited revenue for 2024, indicating no significant impact on operational performance [4][10]. - Shuangliang Energy clarified that it is not a direct partner with SpaceX but an indirect supplier for a project related to international industrial gas companies [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to Shuangliang Energy and its then-secretary of the board, Yang Likang, for failing to provide accurate and complete information regarding the orders, which could mislead investors [8][12]. - The exchange emphasized the need for companies to disclose information about "commercial space" orders carefully, considering the high market interest in this sector [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Performance Outlook - The company is expected to report a net loss of between 780 million yuan and 1.06 billion yuan for the year, following a loss of 2.134 billion yuan in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of significant losses [13][14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kidswant (301078.SZ), currently has no business layout related to short dramas, and its AI products are still in the early development stage, contributing a small proportion to the company's overall performance, thus not significantly impacting its financial results [1] Group 1 - The company has stated that it does not have any short drama-related business initiatives at this time [1] - The AI products of the company are in the initial development phase and represent a minor share of the overall business [1] - The current status of AI products does not have a major impact on the company's financial performance [1]