21 世纪关键技术 " 关注科技未来发展趋势，研究 21 世纪前沿科技关键技术的需求，和影响。将不定期推荐和 发布世界范围重要关键技术研究进展和未来趋势研究。 国防部首席技术官埃米尔·迈克尔14个"关键技术领域"清单缩减至仅剩两个月后将领导对这些 CTA 进行研究 的六位官员。 这六人均拥有国防部庞大技术体系的相关经验。其中四人曾在空军服役，空军历来是技术意识最强的军种。 他们三人此前已是负责管理原有14个技术援助机构（CTA）之一的"首席主管"，其余四人则从国防部各部门 选拔而出。 卡梅伦·斯坦利 目前身兼两职，既是五角大楼首席数字与人工智能官（CDAO），也是应用人工智能高级官 员（AAI）。他刚刚就任该职位。斯坦利毕业于美国空军学院，他的资料显示，他曾在国防部和业界之间辗 转，先后在博思艾伦咨询公司、亚马逊网络服务公司、南方司令部以及开创性的军事人工智能团队"Maven项 目"任职。在特朗普第一届政府中，他曾为负责情报与安全事务的副部长监督人工智能发展的工作。 加里·沃拉 是生物制造领域的高级官员，生物制造是生物技术的一个分支，旨在用生物来源的酶取代传统的 化学工程。过去，他担任海军首席生物技术科学家。 ...

"21世纪关键技术"关注科技未来发展趋势，研究21世纪前沿科技关键技术的需求，和影响。将不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要关键技 术研究进展和未来趋势研究。 前言：在上一篇文章中，我们发表了 《大自然规律不允许！德国物理学家指出量子计算可能永远无法成功》， 在本篇将进一步介绍美 国国防高级研究计划局 DARPA 验证量子计算真实性的举措。为验证量子计算的可靠性做出的工作。 美国国防高级研究计划局正在通过一项雄心勃勃的验证计划重新定义全球量子计算竞赛的规则。该机构的量子基准测试计划已将11家 来自美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的企业推进到第二阶段，这些公司必须证明他们能够在2033年前开发出"效益超过成本"的实用级量子计 算机。这一严格的筛选机制标志着量子技术发展从科学探索转向工程验证的关键转折点。 DARPA的量子基准测试计划设定了一个明确且具有挑战性的目标：到2033年实现量子计算的实际商业和军事价值。该计划项目经理乔 ·阿尔特彼得明确表示，他们的"开场立场是怀疑主义"，旨在通过科学严谨性来终结量子计算领域的过度炒作。这种制度化的怀疑态度 反映了美国政府对新兴技术泡沫的警惕，以及对确保联邦投资获得实际回报的坚持。 进入第 ...

视频发布的时间点意味深长，正当主流舆论继续炒作量子计算的光明前景之际，一位拥有170万YouTube订阅 者、曾在Nature和《新科学家》发表多篇文章的资深科学传播者，却对这项承载了人类技术梦想的领域投出 了怀疑的目光。这不是耸人听闻的标题党，而是源于对物理学基础的严肃思考。 未经验证的边界：量子力学在大尺度上的失效之谜 任何有实际意义的大规模量子计算机都需要建立和控制一个超大规模、深度纠缠的量子系统。然而，这正好 处于量子力学尚未被验证过的边界区间。 我们已知的事实是：当物体变得更大时，量子效应会消失。但关键问题是，我们至今不明白这究竟为什么会 发生。量子计算所依赖的物理基础并非建立在已被充分验证的量子力学适用范围之内，而是基于将理论向大 规模、多体、高度纠缠状态进行外推的前提。这就像在没有充分检验地基的情况下，就开始动工建造高楼大 厦。 支持这一观点的不是边缘人物。数学家兼计算机科学家Gil Kalai长期论证，量子计算机必然存在不可避免的 噪声，这将彻底阻止它们获得相对于传统计算机的真正优势。物理学教授Robert Alicki也持类似立场，他指 出如果现实地建模噪声，量子计算机中的纠错将变成不可能。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in the global AI market, particularly highlighting the rise of China's DeepSeek R1 model and its implications for the dominance of U.S. AI models [2][4][15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of August 2025, U.S. large language models (LLMs) accounted for approximately 93% of global website traffic, indicating a strong market presence despite competition from China [4] - From April 2024 to May 2025, the monthly traffic for major LLM platforms surged from 2.4 billion to 8.2 billion visits, with U.S. companies capturing most of this growth [4] - Following the release of DeepSeek R1, China's LLM website traffic increased by 460%, raising its global market share from 3% to 13% [4][5] Group 2: User Behavior and Market Opportunities - The growth of Chinese models did not come at the expense of U.S. models; instead, it opened new market segments, suggesting that the global AI market is not yet saturated [5] - Despite a temporary decline in DeepSeek's market share stabilizing around 6%, this represents a significant qualitative leap, indicating that brand loyalty is minimal in the AI sector [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The increase in market share for Chinese models is negatively correlated with the GDP per capita of countries, suggesting that regions with closer political and economic ties to China are more receptive to its AI technologies [6] - By 2025, Chinese models captured over 20% market share in 11 countries and over 10% in 30 countries, while growth in NATO and U.S. ally nations was minimal [6] Group 4: Factors Influencing User Choice - Traditional explanations for the global expansion of Chinese tech, such as price competition and state-led promotion, were challenged by the report, which found these factors not to be decisive in user choice [8][9] - Despite significant price advantages for Chinese models, the majority of users access services for free, diminishing the impact of pricing on consumer decisions [9] - Language support, once a stronghold for U.S. models, has been rapidly matched by Chinese models, with DeepSeek supporting over 100 languages [10] Group 5: Performance and Switching Costs - The report identifies performance thresholds and zero switching costs as critical factors enabling DeepSeek R1 to disrupt the U.S. market dominance [12][13] - The ease of switching between AI models means that user loyalty is fragile, and performance improvements can lead to rapid shifts in market share [13] Group 6: Business Model Differences - U.S. companies typically follow a venture capital model focused on profitability, while Chinese firms view AI as a public utility, allowing for sustained low pricing and free services [13][14] - This difference in approach may provide Chinese companies with a competitive edge in the long-term AI market [14] Group 7: Future Outlook - The report warns that the current U.S. market dominance should not be taken for granted, as competition will become increasingly volatile, with innovation being the key to maintaining market share [15][16] - The global AI market is fracturing along geopolitical lines, with alternative technology ecosystems emerging in the Global South, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [16]

核心论点：Dario 认为"强大AI"（相当于"数据中心里的天才之国"——5000万个超越诺奖得主的超级智能体）可能在1-2年内到来。他将风险分为五大类： 1.自主性风险：AI会否产生自主意图并试图控制世界？ 2.破坏性滥用：恐怖分子能否利用AI制造大规模毁灭？ 3.权力滥用：独裁者能否用AI建立全球统治？ 4.经济颠覆：AI是否会引发大规模失业和财富极端集中？ "21 世纪关键技术 " 关注科技未来发展趋势，研究 21 世纪前沿科技关键技术的需求，和影响。将不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要关键技术研究进展和未来趋势 研究。 作者介绍： Dario Amodei （达里奥 · 阿莫迪） ， Anthropic 首席执行官， 意大利裔美国人， AI 安全领域的顶尖研究者和企业家。毕业于普林斯顿 大学，曾担任 OpenAI 研究副总裁，主导了 GPT-2 和 GPT-3 等大型语言模型的开发。 2021 年，他与妹妹 Daniela Amodei 等人离开 OpenAI ，联合 创立了 Anthropic—— 一家专注于 AI 安全的公益公司，推出了 Claude 系列大语言模型。与马斯克的激进和奥特曼的理想主义不同 ...

全球知名科技市场情报公司CB Insights近期发布了《2026年技术趋势研究报告》,这份102页的综合性分析揭示了从企业运营到国家基础设施,从医 疗健康到物理世界的深刻技术变革。报告基于CB Insights的预测性情报系统,整合了对1300多家独角兽公司、1500多个技术市场以及数千家初创企 业的跟踪数据,勾勒出技术创新正在重塑全球经济的关键路径。 这份报告的核心价值在于,它不仅仅停留在趋势预测层面,而是通过Mosaic评分、商业成熟度指标、招聘动态等多维度数据,揭示哪些技术正在从实 验室走向商业化,哪些市场正在经历拐点时刻。与去年的预测相比,CB Insights在2025年的14个趋势预测中,有11个得到了市场验证,证明了其分析方 法的有效性。 企业运营进入自主化时代 人工智能代理的投资回报率正在成为企业面临的移动目标。CB Insights对59位企业高管的调查显示,63%的企业将生产力提升作为首要衡量指 标,58%关注时间节省和成本削减,但对收入影响的量化仍然困难重重。一位年收入10亿美元的媒体娱乐公司信息安全总监坦言,衡量AI代理的投资 回报率似乎是所有这些工具的主要问题。 这种测量困境为新一 ...

在经历了围绕生成式人工智能的数年（Generative AI）的狂热喧嚣后，全球科技产业正站稳了一个关键的十字路口。根据德勤（Deloitte）最新发布的 《2026科技、传媒和电信行业预测》报告，2026年将引发人工智能从"令人惊叹"的实验阶段转向"务实"德勤预测，随着AI规模化应用的持续推进，其理想 与现实之间的差距将明显缩小，但不会完全消失：未来的进展将更多地来自于基础能力的夯实与跨行业的深度整合，而非依赖于发布的新模型 。 这份重量级报告详细剖析了从计算基础设施、软件服务模式到物理世界机器人及数字媒体形态的深刻变革。报告指出，科技、传媒和电信（TMT）行业 剧烈增长的重要性已超越了芯片和代码本身，它们正成为其他所有行业实现增长、效率和创新的根本驱动力 。 从"主动炫技"到"被动服务"：AI与SaaS的范式转移 在德勤的预测中，一个显着的趋势是生成式AI使用方式的根本性转变。虽然ChatGPT等独立AI应用关注了当前的媒体头条，但德勤敏锐地指出，未来的主 战场出现"椅子式AI"。德勤预测，到2026年及以后，使用内嵌于现有主流应用（如搜索引擎、办公软件）中的生成式AI的用户数量，将超过使用独立生成 式A ...

在过去十年里，全球科技行业的叙事主轴几乎完全被"指数级增长"所垄断。摩尔定律的惯性、云计算的无限弹性以及风险资本对规模的狂热追逐，共同构 建了一个仿佛资源无限、边界无穷的扩张时代。然而，随着未来学家伊恩·可汗（Ian Khan）及其研究机构最新发布的《2026年50大科技趋势前瞻报告》 （The Top 50 Technology Trends Report 2026）正式出炉，这种单一维度的增长神话正在宣告终结。这份详尽的报告为全球企业高管、政策制定者及技术领 袖描绘了一幅截然不同的未来图景：2026年将标志着科技行业正式进入"约束时代"。在这个新阶段，技术的价值不再取决于其在实验室里的参数突破，而 在于其在严苛的物理资源限制、合规围栏以及社会信任底线之上，能否实现可持续的商业落地。 这份报告不仅是对未来12至36个月技术风向的预测，更是一份关于"清醒"的战略宣言。报告核心观点指出，AI与自动化系统不再受限于人类的想象力，而 是开始受制于能源供应、监管边界及劳动力适应能力等"硬约束"。如果说过去十年的主题是关于"可能性"的探索，那么未来三年则是关于"可行性"的角 逐。 物理现实的回归：算力瓶颈与能源战略的博 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative potential of Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) technology, highlighting its rapid market growth and the shift of market focus from the West to the Asia-Pacific region, as detailed in the Barnes Reports' analysis of the BCI market by 2026 [2][3]. Market Overview - BCI technology enables direct communication between the brain and external devices, impacting various sectors from medical rehabilitation to gaming and entertainment [3]. - The global BCI device market is projected to reach $3.468 billion by 2026, with a steep growth trajectory from $1.5 billion in 2020, particularly a 15.4% year-on-year increase from 2025 to 2026 [3]. - By 2032, the market is expected to expand to $8.25 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.2% from 2027 to 2032 [3]. Semiconductor Industry Implications - The BCI market is categorized within the semiconductor industry, indicating a shift in focus towards low-power, high-throughput data processing chips, which are becoming a competitive battleground in the semiconductor sector [4]. Regional Market Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to dominate the BCI market by 2026, with a projected market size of $1.59 billion, accounting for approximately 52.2% of the global market [5]. - North America is expected to contribute $737 million (24.1%), while Europe will account for $506 million (16.6%) [5]. - China's BCI market is forecasted to reach $1.053 billion (approximately 7.445 billion RMB) by 2026, nearly double that of the U.S. market [6]. Cost Structure Analysis - The BCI industry is characterized by high operational costs, with projected annual salary expenditures of $1.595 billion in 2026, representing nearly 46% of total expenses [8]. - Total operational costs, including R&D, materials, and marketing, are expected to reach $2.6 billion, indicating significant profitability pressures for companies in this sector [8]. Market Drivers and Challenges - Key drivers for BCI market growth include advancements in technology, increased capital investment, and the rising demand for remote healthcare solutions in the post-pandemic era [10]. - Challenges include high development costs, technical limitations in signal acquisition, and ethical concerns regarding data privacy and security [10][11]. Global Economic Insights - The report provides insights into the geopolitical aspects of BCI technology, emphasizing the competitive landscape among major economies [12]. - The methodology used in the report combines historical trends and economic models to ensure data credibility, highlighting the importance of market potential as a reflection of product shipment value [13]. Conclusion - The BCI market is positioned for significant growth, with the potential to reshape the semiconductor industry and healthcare landscape, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the paradoxical state of the world in 2025, highlighting unprecedented economic uncertainty alongside rapid technological advancements in areas like space exploration, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology [2][3]. Group 1: Technological Opportunities and Governance - The Dubai Future Foundation's report identifies 14 urgent global opportunities from a selection of 48 transformative opportunities, aiming to bridge divides in an increasingly fragmented international order [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for a new governance framework in both space exploration and genetic editing, proposing the establishment of Space Development Goals (SpDGs) and a Global Gene Charter to address emerging risks and ethical concerns [4][5][6]. Group 2: Economic and Financial Innovations - The report critiques the existing international financial system and proposes the creation of a Global Mutual Fund to address the funding gap for climate change, estimated to exceed $230 trillion by 2050 [7]. - It advocates for a dynamic assessment system that transcends traditional classifications of developed and developing countries, promoting a more nuanced understanding of capabilities in addressing global challenges [8]. Group 3: Decentralized Innovation and Global Trade - The report highlights the significance of frugal innovation from the Global South, suggesting that these resource-efficient solutions can offer valuable insights for developed nations facing economic pressures [9]. - It proposes a decentralized global innovation network to facilitate the participation of small and medium enterprises in global value chains, enhancing economic resilience [9]. Group 4: Digital Infrastructure and Long-term Strategies - The report introduces the concept of Public AI, advocating for AI capabilities to be treated as public infrastructure to ensure inclusivity and accessibility [10]. - It suggests a "Make It 100" plan, proposing a long-term framework for planetary development goals that align with intergenerational responsibilities in addressing climate change [11]. Group 5: Redefining Happiness and Global Cooperation - The report calls for a shift from GDP-oriented growth to a well-being-oriented approach, emphasizing community connection and collective goals as essential for addressing social fragmentation and mental health crises [12]. - It positions the report as a diplomatic tool for global leaders, encouraging collaborative future planning to navigate current geopolitical tensions [13].