证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 4 月 16 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 三角防务发布公告称，公司与某重要客户签订了《产品订货合同》，合同总金额为 8.75 亿元(含税)，占公司最近一个会计年度未经审计营业收入的 47.90%。合同标的 为公司批产航空类锻件，合同履行期限为 2025 年 4 月起，具体根据客户下发交货计 划执行。2022 年 11 月公司也发布过"签订日常经营重大合同的公告"，当时的合同 总金额为 5.3 亿元，因此本次合同金额较上次合同增长较大。由于三角防务主要配 套西飞，而且西飞运 20B 飞机明显已经正式量产。运 20B 换装大涵道比发动机后， 将拥有更大的运载能力、航程和经济性，对比美军 C17 运输机数百架的部署总量， 运 20B 大概率会有较大的年产量，因此看 ...

中国西电公布了2024年年报和2025年一季度季报。2024年全年公司营业收入221.75 亿元，同比增长 5.59%。归母净利润 10.54 亿元，同比增长 17.5%，扣非净利润 9.97 亿元，同比增长 55.5%。全年毛利率 20.75%，同比提升 2.70 个百分点。从产业结构 看，变压器收入 44.68 亿元，同比增长 21.6%。高压开关收入 40.81 亿元，同比增长 25.07%。电容器收入 2.76 亿元，同比增长 26.9%。2025 年一季度公司营业收入 52.45 亿元，同比增长 11.27%。归母净利润 2.95 亿元，同比增长 42.10%，扣非净利润 9.97 亿元，同比增长 55.5%。总体看公司 2024 年和今年一季度业绩增长趋势，与前段时 间部分电力设备公司如保变电气、宝光股份、许继电气、平高电气、西高院等公布 的业绩变动趋势一致，总体体现了电力设备行业的高景气度。目前中美关税战的前 提下，中国对美出口的集装箱量已经开始快速下滑，推测国内出台对冲政策的概率 较高。目前在固定资产投资领域，电网设备投资会是一个难得还能有较好投资效益、 且能大规模投入的领域，因此我们看好今年 ...

事件： 分析师：李怀军 证券研究报告 4 月 13 日 17 点中国人民银行公布 3 月中国金融数据 证书编号：S1080510120001 评论： 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济： 点评报告 2025 年 4 月 14 日 从存量上看， 3 月 M2 同比为 7%，与预期相同，前值（2 月）为 7%；M1 同比 为 1.6%，预期为 0.3%，前值为 0.1%；M1 与 M2 之差为-5.4%，较上月回升 1.5 个百分点，表明资金流动速度有所回升。3 月社融同比为 8.4%，预期为 8.2%， 前值为 8.2%；社融与 M2 之差为 1.4%%，较前值回升 0.2 个百分点，表现资金 需求增速高于资金供给。 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 4 页 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 从增量上看，3 月社融增量为 5.89 万亿元，预期为 4.73 万亿元，前值为 2.24 万亿元。与去年同期相比，同比增 1.05 万亿元；其中政府债券增 1.02 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 4 月 11 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济： 事件一： 分析师：李怀军 4 月 10 日早 9 点半国家统计局公布 3 月中国物价数据 证书编号：S1080510120001 评论一： 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 中国 3 月 CPI 同比为-0.1%，与预期相同，前值（2 月）为-0.7%；核心 CPI 同比为 0.5%，前值为-0.1%。3 月 CPI 环比为-0.4%，前值为-0.2%；核心 CPI 环比为 0.0%，前值为-0.2%。 分析师：郭强 3 月食品环比为-1.4%，前值为-0.5%。由于天气转暖，部分鲜活食品集中上 市，食品供应充足，鲜菜、猪肉、鸡蛋和鲜果价格分别下降 5.1%、4.4%、 3.1%和 1.6%，合计影响 CPI 环比下降约 0.22 个百分点。 3 月非食品环比为-0.2%，前值为-0.1%。3 月各分项中，生活用品及服务环 比上涨 1.3%，其中家用器具上涨 2.8%；衣着包括服装和鞋类，环比皆上涨 0.7%；其它用品和服务环比 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 4 月 10 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 国家税务总局发布《关于推广境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"服务措施的公 告》,将政策从试点城市向全国推广。"即买即退"的最大特点是允许境外旅客在 购物时直接领取退税款，无需等待离境后再办理。在中美关税战升级的情况下， 该政策大概率可以吸引较多美国客户来华从事代购业务，从而有利于免税和大型 商贸企业的业绩增长。 在 4 月 8 日美方将此前宣布的对中国输美产品加征 34%所谓"对等关税"，进一步 提高 50%至 84%后，国务院关税税则委员会 4 月 9 日发布公告自 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起，原产于美国的所有进口商品的加征关税税率，中美关税战进一步升级。在 这种情况下，国内石英砂行业将明显受益与对美进口替代，利好国内以石英股份、 菲利华等为代表的石英企业的业绩改善。2024 年中国高纯石英砂的进口量约 12-14 万吨，其中，半导体级砂占进口量的 70%，光伏内层砂占 30%。美国优尼科公司是 全球高纯石英砂的主要供应商。 分析师：郭强 4 月 9 日乘联会发布 3 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 4 月 9 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 芯动联科，主要从事军用惯性导航 MEMS 器件，公布 2025 年一季度业绩预告，预 计 2025 年第一季度实现营业收入在 8,600 万元至 8,900 万元之间，同比增长 283~296%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润在 4,100~4,600 万元之间，扭亏为 盈。业绩增长主要原因是公司产品获得不同领域客户的认可，订单继续保持快速 增长。目前公司在手订单充足，产品按计划在一季度顺利实现交付，使得一季度 营业收入同比大幅增长。铖昌科技，主要从事军用和卫星相控阵雷达 TR 芯片业务， 公布 2025 年一季度业绩预告，预计 2025 年第一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的 净利润在 2,700 万元–3,450 万元，同比增长 281.17%-331.49%； ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, driven by a recovery in market conditions and increased sales profits, with a projected net profit for Guangsheng Nonferrous of 40 to 50 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year [3] - The agricultural chemicals sector is also showing signs of recovery, with Limin Co. forecasting a net profit of 100 to 120 million yuan in Q1 2025, a substantial increase from a loss of 8.49 million yuan in the same period last year, attributed to rising product prices and a favorable market environment [3] - Tiande Yu expects a revenue increase of 60.52% year-on-year, with net profit reaching approximately 70.57 million yuan in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of new products and markets, particularly in display driver chips and electronic price tag chips [4] Industry Analysis - The home appliance export sector faces significant challenges due to the recent implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff and additional tariffs that could raise the average tariff rate to around 80% for Chinese white goods exported to the U.S., creating a substantial impact on trade dynamics [6][7] - Companies with diversified production capacities and lower exposure to the U.S. market, such as TCL and Hisense, are better positioned to withstand tariff pressures due to localized production strategies [7] - Smaller enterprises that rely heavily on exports to the U.S. and lack overseas operations are likely to face severe cost pressures and may struggle to remain competitive, potentially leading to reduced orders and financial difficulties [8]

Macroeconomic Overview - In March, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US increased by 228,000, exceeding the expected increase of 135,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 151,000 to 117,000 [2][3] - The unemployment rate in March was 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1% [2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly higher than the expected 62.4% [2] Employment Data - The government sector added 19,000 jobs in March, with the previous month's figure revised down from 11,000 to 1,000 [3] - Private non-farm employment rose by 209,000, surpassing the expected increase of 127,000, with previous figures revised down from 140,000 to 116,000 [3] - Within private non-farm employment, the goods-producing sector added 12,000 jobs, while the service sector saw an increase of 197,000 jobs [3] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are mixed, with probabilities for maintaining rates unchanged at 56.7% and for a 25 basis point cut at 43.3% [4] - Following the non-farm payroll report, the likelihood of maintaining rates unchanged decreased from 60.1% to 56.7% [4] Agricultural Chemicals Industry - Li Er Chemical expects a net profit of 145 million to 155 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.08% to 223.98%, driven by rising prices of chlorinated pyridine products [8] - The agricultural chemicals industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices of major products like glyphosate increasing by 10-15% [8] Consumer Sector Insights - During the Qingming Festival, approximately 790 million people traveled, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [10] - In Shanghai, tourist numbers reached 7.0027 million, a 5.45% increase year-on-year, indicating a trend of sustained recovery in domestic consumption [10] - The average hotel occupancy rate in Shanghai rose by 6 percentage points, further supporting the positive outlook for the domestic consumption sector [10]

Macroeconomic Overview - The report highlights the announcement by President Trump regarding the implementation of a 10% baseline tariff on all countries, effective April 5, 2025, with higher tariffs for specific countries, including 34% on China and 46% on Vietnam [3][4][6] - The potential impact on global trade is significant, with concerns that retaliatory measures from other countries could exacerbate the situation, particularly affecting China's re-export trade [4][6] - The report anticipates increased monetary and fiscal policy support within China to bolster domestic demand, including expectations for interest rate cuts and expanded fiscal spending [4] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - The report discusses the implications of the high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries, noting that these tariffs are unsustainable for producers and will likely lead to increased costs for U.S. importers and consumers [6] - It emphasizes that the U.S. will face significant economic and inflationary pressures due to these tariffs, as the production systems cannot be established quickly [6] Semiconductor Materials - The company Nanda Optoelectronics reported a revenue of 2.352 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.08%, significantly outpacing the previous year's growth of 8% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 271 million yuan, up 28.15%, with a notable 53.19% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items [7] - Demand for semiconductor materials has rebounded, with precursor materials seeing a 70.3% increase, and the gross margin improved by 8.7 percentage points to 48.6% [7] Consumer Sector - The company Kuaijishan achieved total revenue of 1.631 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, with net profit rising 17.74% [9][10] - The report attributes Kuaijishan's success to a clear growth strategy, including a focus on high-end products, which now account for 48% of revenue, and a 31.29% increase in sales for these products [10] - The company has successfully expanded its market presence beyond traditional regions, achieving over 50% revenue growth in other domestic markets, aided by a national strategy and digital sales channels [10][11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the global display panel industry, with Sanli Pu's revenue reaching 2.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.25% [3] - The report indicates a significant growth in the sales of new energy vehicles, with Leap Motor's March sales increasing by 155% year-on-year, and Xiaopeng Motors achieving a 268% increase [3] - Midea Group reported a total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, with net profit increasing by 14.3% [6] Display Panel Industry - Sanli Pu's fourth-quarter revenue was 716 million yuan, up 35.51% year-on-year, driven by the recovery in the global display panel industry and the increase in OLED product volume [3] - The average operating rate of the LCD industry has been rising since November last year, maintaining above 80% this year [3] - LCD TV panel prices have been increasing since January 2025, with a 2% rise in the price of 65-inch panels compared to Q3 2024 [3] New Energy Vehicle Market - The overall sales of new energy vehicle companies showed rapid growth in March, with several second-tier brands outperforming first-tier brands [3] - BYD's March sales reached 377,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, while cumulative sales for the first three months reached 1 million units, up 59.8% [3] - The competitive landscape among automotive brands is expected to change significantly, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [3] Home Appliance Industry - Midea Group's overseas revenue grew by 12%, with overseas sales accounting for over 40% of total revenue in 2024 [6] - Compared to peers, Midea's growth is more pronounced, with Haier's revenue growing by 4.3% and Xiaomi's IoT and consumer products revenue increasing by 30% [7] - Midea's R&D expenditure reached 16.2 billion yuan in 2024, up 11.3%, indicating a focus on innovation to maintain competitiveness [8]