Macro Economic Group - The August CPI in the US was reported at 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and up from 2.7% in July; the seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI increased by 0.4%, above the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.2% [3] - The August PPI year-on-year rose by 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, contrary to the expected increase of 0.3% [4] - Following the CPI announcement, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on approximately 1,400 products, including automobiles and toys, from countries without free trade agreements, which may reduce export growth from China [7] - The stock price of Sandisk surged by 16%, with a seven-day increase exceeding 68%, indicating a positive outlook for the global storage industry driven by rising AI demand [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Shandong Province announced the results of its first competitive bidding for renewable energy prices, with wind power priced at 0.319 yuan/kWh and photovoltaic at 0.225 yuan/kWh, marking a significant decrease from previous benchmark prices [9] - The Chinese government is addressing over $1 trillion in unpaid bills to private sectors, which could improve liquidity in various industries, including infrastructure and transportation [9] Consumer Group - The summer box office in 2025 reached 11.965 billion yuan, a 2.77% increase year-on-year, with total attendance rising to 321 million, a 12.75% increase [11] - The average ticket price decreased to 37.2 yuan, down 3.6 yuan from the previous year, reflecting promotional activities and a drop in minimum pricing [11] - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" became the summer box office champion, contributing significantly to the overall market performance, which saw a strong rebound in the latter half of the summer [12]

Macroeconomic Analysis - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, against an expectation of -0.2%, while the previous month was 0.0%. The core CPI rose by 0.9%, the highest since February 2024, compared to 0.8% in July [3][4] - The food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables rising by 8.5% and eggs by 1.5%. However, fresh fruit prices fell by 2.8%, and pork prices decreased by 0.5% [3][4] - The PPI in August was -2.9% year-on-year, ending a downward trend since February, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% [4] Industry Insights - Oracle's first-quarter earnings report revealed a remaining performance obligation of $455 billion, with projected revenue growth for its cloud infrastructure business significantly exceeding market expectations. However, the majority of AI orders are still supported by major U.S. tech companies, indicating limited immediate commercial benefits from AI advancements [8] - Recent discussions in the U.S. government regarding strict restrictions on drug imports from China may impact the pharmaceutical sector, particularly concerning experimental drugs for various diseases. This could lead to a potential adjustment phase for innovative drugs in the market [9] Advanced Manufacturing - A recent procurement bid for energy storage equipment in Shandong revealed a price range of 0.527–0.539 yuan/Wh. The total investment cost, including additional components, is estimated to be around 0.86-1.14 yuan/Wh [11] - The break-even price for energy storage projects varies based on usage frequency, with a dynamic payback period potentially reduced to 5-6 years if auxiliary service income is included [11] Consumer Sector - Vipshop's Q2 2025 financial report showed revenue of 25.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%. However, the company maintained a gross margin of 23.5%, indicating effective cost control measures [13][14] - The GMV increased by 1.7% to 51.4 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth in five quarters, with SVIP active users growing by 15% year-on-year [14] - Vipshop's TTM P/E ratio is approximately 9 times, suggesting significant valuation recovery potential compared to the average in the e-commerce sector [14]

Industry Overview - Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. is set to resume operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits progressing smoothly, indicating a potential recovery in production capacity [2] - The recent anti-involution policies in China are expected to impact market-driven sectors more than government-led ones, suggesting that the actual pace of capacity clearance in related industries may be slower than market expectations, leading to potential price declines [2] - The overall sentiment in the new energy vehicle market is weak, with retail sales in August showing a year-on-year growth of only 7.5%, the slowest in 18 months, and a significant drop in export volume [6] Company Specifics - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. has established its third phase in Wuhan with a registered capital of 20.72 billion yuan, indicating the commencement of expansion plans, although the scale is smaller compared to the second phase [3] - Miniso's mid-year report shows total revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with the second quarter revenue reaching 4.97 billion yuan, up 23.1%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The growth in Miniso's revenue is driven by increased overseas market contributions, with the U.S. market growing by 80%, and the TOPTOY brand seeing a revenue increase of 73% [9] - Despite revenue growth, Miniso's profit faced pressure, with a net profit of 906 million yuan in the first half, down 23.1%, primarily due to losses from investments in Yonghui Superstores [9]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 9 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号： S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 9 月 7 日上午 11 点中国海关总署公布 8 月中国外贸数据。 评论： 以人民币计，中国 8 月出口同比增速为 4.8%，前值（7 月）为 8.0%；进口增速为 1.7%，前值为 4.8%。以美元计，中国 8 月出口同比增速为 4.4%，Wind 预期为 5.9%， 前值为 7.2%；进口增速为 1.3%，Wind 预期为 3.3%，前值为 4.1%；8 月贸易顺差为 1023 亿美元，Wind 预期为 1003 亿美元，前值为 982 亿美元。 按前五大贸易伙伴排序分类，以美元计算出口增速，对东盟出口从 7 月 16.6%回升 至 8 月 22.5%；对欧盟出口从 7 月 9.2%回升至 8 月 10.4%；对美出口从 7 月-21.7% 回落至 8 月-33.1%；对韩国出口从 7 月 4.6%回落至 8 月-1. ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable industry outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [21]. Core Viewpoints - The sodium-ion battery industry is experiencing high demand, with global shipments reaching 3.7 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 259.0%. The total expected shipments for 2025 are projected to exceed 23.1 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 542.7% [4][5]. - The explosive growth of new energy storage is a significant driver for the sustained high demand for sodium-ion batteries. China's new energy storage capacity is expected to grow from 2.45 GW in 2021 to 43.79 GW in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 161.46% [11]. - The penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries is anticipated to rise sharply, from 0.4% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025, and is expected to reach 8.5% by 2030 [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Demand - The sodium-ion battery industry is maintaining high demand, with a compound annual growth rate of 195.2% from 2021 to 2024. The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in shipments, indicating robust market growth [5][18]. 2. New Energy Storage Growth - New energy storage has seen explosive growth, with global capacity increasing from 10.20 GW in 2021 to 74.10 GW in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 93.67%. This growth is crucial for the sodium-ion battery market [11]. 3. Company Expansion Plans - Several companies in the sodium-ion battery sector have announced expansion and investment plans, including Huayang Co. and Weike Technology, which are increasing production capacity and investing in new projects [17][18]. 4. Price Competitiveness - The price advantage of sodium-ion batteries is expected to improve, with projections indicating that costs could drop to around 0.3 CNY/Wh in the next 1-2 years, potentially matching or undercutting lithium iron phosphate batteries [18].

Macro Economic Group - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected increase of 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up from 73,000 to 79,000 [4] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, matching expectations, while the labor force participation rate was 62.2%, slightly below the expected 62.3% [4] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.7% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations, but the previous month's figure was revised down from 3.9% [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - In August 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units (up 14.8%) and exports at 8,838 units (up 11.1%) [8] - Sales of various loaders reached 9,440 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales at 4,774 units (up 18.3%) and exports at 4,666 units (up 8.69%) [8] - The average working hours for major construction machinery in August were 78.4 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.45%, indicating a potential decline in future sales growth [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide weakened, while prices of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and other metal salts increased [11] - The cost gap between lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries may widen, with lithium iron phosphate battery costs expected to decrease due to falling lithium carbonate prices [11] - The decline in costs for energy storage systems, particularly lithium iron phosphate batteries, is expected to catalyze large-scale deployment in storage projects [11] Consumer Group - Pinduoduo's total revenue for Q2 2025 was 103.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, while net profit was 30.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [13] - The main site advertising revenue was 55.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, although growth has slowed compared to the previous quarter [13] - The management indicated that the current profit level is not sustainable, with significant strategic investments expected to pressure short-term performance [13] Bond Research Group - The bond market experienced fluctuations influenced by the stock market, with rates gradually declining early in the week before a slight increase later [16] - The central bank's supportive measures and expectations of restarting government bond purchases indicate limited risk in the bond market [16] - The main challenges in the bond market are related to risk preference shifts and the impact of deposit migration [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a robust profit growth in H1 2025, with operating revenue of 1.83 billion yuan (YoY +20.20%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 490 million yuan (YoY +21.41%) [1]. - The company has significantly improved its ranking in debt underwriting, completing 70 debt financing projects with a total underwriting amount of 25.274 billion yuan (YoY +296.64%), moving up 29 places to rank 26 in the industry [3]. - The asset management business has seen a total of 66.325 billion yuan in funds under management, an increase of 23.65% from the end of 2024, while public fund management has decreased by 5.72% to 596.15 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported net income from various business lines: brokerage at 230 million yuan (YoY +47%), investment banking at 140 million yuan (YoY +38%), asset management at 440 million yuan (YoY -6%), credit at 60 million yuan (YoY +22%), and proprietary trading at 690 million yuan (YoY +22%) [1]. Asset Management and Investment Banking - The company is focusing on ESG and FOF advantages in its asset management sector, with a notable increase in public fund management [2]. - The company has successfully filed for one IPO project on the Beijing Stock Exchange and has two projects under review as of H1 2025 [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.23 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.26 yuan respectively, with a target price of 8.74 yuan based on a P/B ratio of 2.2x for 2025 [3].

Group 1: Industry Overview - Huawei has launched a new foldable smartphone with a starting price of 17,999 yuan, which is 2,000 yuan lower than the first generation. The new model supports downloading PC applications and includes upgrades in chips and imaging [3] - In the first eight months of this year, the sales of foldable smartphones in China reached approximately 5.88 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%, with a penetration rate of about 3.2% [3] - The State Council has issued an opinion to enhance the potential of sports consumption, aiming to cultivate influential sports enterprises and events by 2030, with the total scale of the sports industry expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - In August, domestic lithium carbonate production reached a new high of over 85,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 39% [6] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased, with an average price of 74,700 yuan, down 800 yuan from the previous trading day and 5,800 yuan from a week ago. This price decline may slightly impact the short-term outlook for sodium batteries [6] - Global shipments of sodium batteries are projected to reach 3.6 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 260%, and are expected to reach 23.1 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 542% [6] Group 3: Company Performance - Nongfu Spring reported a mid-year revenue of 25.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit of 7.622 billion yuan, up 22.1%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by about 5 percentage points [8] - The gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 60.3%, primarily due to the decline in costs of PET materials, cartons, and sugar. The gross margin is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year [8] - The tea beverage segment has become the largest revenue contributor, generating 10.089 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, driven by new product launches [9]

Group 1: Paper Industry - Major paper manufacturers such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper have announced price increases for certain products in early September, following over two rounds of price hikes since August [4] - The price of domestic pulp has declined since reaching a three-year high in February, with July prices falling below the average for the entire year of 2024, indicating a potential turning point for the paper industry as costs decrease and selling prices increase [4] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - The application of new energy technologies in military equipment, such as hybrid tanks and electric sanitation vehicles, has significantly enhanced performance in terms of power, endurance, and stealth, while reducing reliance on traditional fuels [6] - In August, China's production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials increased by approximately 8.84% month-on-month and 50% year-on-year, with an industry operating rate of 62%, indicating a robust demand for both power and energy storage orders [6] - The establishment of EVE Energy's solid-state battery production base in Chengdu marks a milestone in the solid-state battery sector, with the new battery achieving an energy density of 300Wh/kg, potentially accelerating large-scale production and improving industry prospects [7] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Anta Sports reported a revenue of 38.544 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with net profit rising by 14.5% to 7.031 billion yuan, indicating strong performance that exceeded market expectations [9] - The main brand of Anta achieved a revenue of 16.95 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, while the FILA brand saw an 8.6% increase to 14.18 billion yuan, and other brands experienced a significant growth of 61.1% to 7.41 billion yuan [10] - Anta's global expansion strategy is showing results, with Southeast Asia revenues nearly doubling and new store openings in North America and the Middle East, including a flagship store in Beverly Hills [10]

Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 48.7, remaining below the 50% threshold for six consecutive months, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [3][4] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, marking the first expansion since the beginning of the year, while the production index fell to 47.8, indicating a return to contraction [3][4] - Employment index remains low at 43.8, the second lowest level since June 2020, while the supplier delivery index improved to 51.3, indicating a return to expansion [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Gold prices reached a historical high, with COMEX gold futures for December rising by 2.42% to $3601.00 per ounce, indicating strong demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7] - The domestic energy storage industry is experiencing a significant boost due to the acceleration of market-oriented electricity pricing, with potential annual profits for a 100MW/200MWh storage station reaching 20 million yuan, doubling from 2023 [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.3 million units in August, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with a cumulative total of 8.93 million units for the first eight months, up 34% year-on-year [9] - The new energy heavy truck sector saw a remarkable growth of 169% year-on-year in August, with major companies reporting significant sales increases [9] - The introduction of flying cars in California marks a new trend in the automotive industry, with a prototype already in trial operation and 3,300 pre-orders received [9] Consumption Group - iQIYI reported total revenue of 6.63 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, primarily due to reduced content supply and a decrease in advertising revenue [13] - The application of AI technology has improved advertising click-through rates by 20%, and the company has a reserve of 15,000 short dramas, indicating potential for future growth [13] - International membership revenue has grown by 35% year-on-year, with significant increases in markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia [13]