Macroeconomic Overview - In July, China's CPI was 0.0% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected -0.1%, while the previous month's CPI was 0.1% [4] - Core CPI rose to 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since February 2024, compared to 0.7% in June [4] - July's PPI was -3.6% year-on-year, matching the lowest since July 2023, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2% [5] Industry Insights - The construction machinery sector showed strong performance, with excavator sales reaching 17,138 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [8] - Domestic excavator sales were 7,306 units, up 17.2%, while exports were 9,832 units, increasing by 31.9% [8] - The engineering machinery market is expected to benefit from significant national infrastructure projects, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8] Semiconductor Sector - Texas Instruments (TI) announced a substantial price increase on over 60,000 products, with price hikes ranging from 10% to over 30% [8] - This price increase reflects a recovery in the industrial control market, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the domestic analog chip industry [9] Automotive Industry - In July, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [11] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were 987,000 units, up 12.0% year-on-year, but down 11.2% month-on-month [11] - The export of NEVs in June was 256,000 units, a 92% increase, indicating a shift towards international markets for growth [11] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 8.56 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [13] - The net profit for the same period was 1.11 billion yuan, up 45.4%, indicating strong performance in the consumer market [13] - The company is focusing on strategic expansion and upgrading sales channels to enhance market presence [13]

Macro Economic Group - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding the Wind forecast of 5.9% and the previous month's growth of 5.8% [5] - Imports grew by 4.1%, significantly higher than the Wind forecast of 0.3% and the previous month's growth of 1.1% [5] - The trade surplus for July was $98.2 billion, lower than the expected $101.5 billion and the previous month's $114.8 billion [5] - Cumulatively, from January to July, China's total trade volume in USD terms grew by 2.4%, a 0.6 percentage point increase from the first half of the year [5] - Exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, grew by 13.5%, while exports to the US decreased by 12.6% [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - SMIC reported Q2 sales of $2.209 billion, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 15.8% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.4% [9] - Hua Hong Semiconductor's Q2 revenue was $566 million, exceeding the guidance midpoint, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3% and a gross margin of 10.9% [9] - Both companies exceeded performance expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry's continued growth [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - XPeng's new P7 model pre-sold over 10,000 units in just 6 minutes and 37 seconds, showcasing strong market demand [12] - The P7 features advanced technology such as an 800V architecture and 5C battery, reflecting the maturity of China's EV supply chain [12] - The strong consumer interest in the P7 indicates significant market potential for disruptive products in the mainstream price range of 200,000 to 300,000 RMB [12] Consumer Group - Unified Central Control reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a 10.6% increase from 15.449 billion RMB in H1 2024 [16] - The net profit attributable to equity holders rose by 33.2% to 1.287 billion RMB, driven by increased sales and improved gross margin [16] - The gross margin increased to 34.3%, benefiting from enhanced production capacity and a decline in raw material prices [16]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. President Trump announced a potential 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, but the overall impact on China's semiconductor industry is expected to be minimal due to the relatively small proportion of semiconductor trade in China's total exports [2] - In the semiconductor cleaning equipment sector, the company holds a global market share of 8.0%, ranking fourth globally, and a market share of over 30% in China, ranking second [3] - The company also has a global market share of 8.2% in the semiconductor plating equipment sector, ranking third globally, indicating strong competitive positioning in a market with weak domestic competition [3] Group 2: Oil and Gas Equipment Services - The company reported a revenue of 6.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with a net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, up 14% [4] - New orders in the oil and gas equipment and engineering services sector reached 9.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.65%, indicating strong demand and growth potential [4] - The company’s backlog of orders stood at 12.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.76%, suggesting sustained performance in the oil and gas sector [4] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Industry - Li Auto's stock fell by 5.3% following a 39.74% year-on-year decline in vehicle deliveries in July, raising concerns about its market position [7] - The competitive landscape for electric vehicles is intensifying, with a shift from product definition to deeper technological capabilities becoming crucial for survival [7] - The luxury six-seat SUV market is experiencing a downturn, diminishing Li Auto's competitive advantage in this segment [7] Group 4: Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Market - Lithium iron phosphate materials accounted for 84% of the installed capacity in power batteries in the first half of 2025, with total production reaching approximately 583 GWh, a 70.6% year-on-year increase [8] - The demand for energy storage is expected to remain strong due to seasonal sales peaks and supportive government policies, indicating a positive outlook for the lithium iron phosphate sector [8] - The potential emergence of sodium-ion batteries could pose a cost competition to lithium iron phosphate in sensitive markets [8] Group 5: Gaming Industry - The domestic gaming market achieved a sales revenue of 168 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.08%, marking a historical high [10] - The user base for gaming reached 679 million, also a historical high, driven by the performance of new releases and the growth of e-sports and mini-program games [10] - Self-developed games generated a domestic revenue of 140.45 billion yuan, up 19.29% year-on-year, indicating robust market conditions [10]

Industry Overview - The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that global semiconductor sales reached $179.7 billion in Q2 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8%. This growth is primarily driven by sales increases in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets, with expectations for continued annual growth in the second half of the year [3] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) reported that the global logic semiconductor market grew by 37% in the first half of the year, while memory semiconductors increased by 20%, sensors by 16%, and analog and micro devices saw a modest growth of 4%. Overall, the demand for chips, particularly driven by AI, has led to rapid growth across the sector [3] - The announcement of potential tariffs on the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries by former President Trump is expected to impact Taiwan and South Korea's foundries the most, likely leading to a trend of domestic production in the semiconductor industry, which could benefit domestic foundries [3] Company Performance - Zhongke Shuguang reported a total revenue of 5.854 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 731 million yuan, up 29.89%, with a 59.66% increase in net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [3] - Haiguang Information's half-year report showed a revenue of 5.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.21%, and a net profit of 1.201 billion yuan, up 40.78%. This performance indicates a sustained increase in domestic AI demand, particularly for high-performance computing CPUs [3] Automotive Sector - Huawei's luxury car model, the Zun Jie S800, achieved over 10,000 pre-orders within 67 days of its launch. This model is positioned as a D+ class flagship sedan with a wheelbase of 3,370 mm, showcasing strong appeal in the high-end automotive market and marking a significant breakthrough for Chinese brands in the luxury car segment [6] - The user demographic for the Zun Jie S800 primarily consists of male private business owners aged 40-50, with 50% of buyers being repeat customers who already own luxury brands like Rolls-Royce and Maybach. This reflects a growing recognition and support for high-end domestic brands among Chinese consumers [6] - The Zun Jie S800 emphasizes a shift in brand value, where technological luxury surpasses traditional luxury, supported by advanced smart driving experiences, intelligent cockpit features, and leading battery technology [6] Energy Storage Sector - Peak Energy launched the world's largest grid-scale sodium iron phosphate (NFPP) battery system, with a storage capacity exceeding 3 MWh, serving nine independent power suppliers and utility customers. The company claims that sodium-ion batteries outperform lithium iron phosphate batteries in high-temperature environments [7] - The introduction of this battery system is expected to enhance the market outlook for sodium-ion battery storage, diversifying technology routes and reducing risks associated with reliance on a single technology [7] - The system's performance in high-temperature conditions provides a clear pathway for the commercialization of sodium batteries, potentially boosting confidence in the industry's growth [7] Consumer Electronics - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 49.34 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a net profit of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.0%. However, Q2 revenue declined by 2.6% year-on-year to 24.5 billion yuan, with net profit down 8.3% [9] - The air conditioning segment generated 23.69 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a 4.1% increase, although central air conditioning faced pressure due to a sluggish real estate market. Conversely, home air conditioning sales grew by 14.1% to 13.04 billion yuan, benefiting from national subsidy policies [9] - The washing machine segment saw a revenue increase of 37.6% due to technological upgrades and innovative applications, contributing to overall growth in the home appliance sector [9]

Group 1: Company Performance - Haowei Group, formerly known as Weier Co., expects H1 2025 revenue between 1,372.21 million to 1,402.21 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.49% to 15.97%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 190.60 million to 204.60 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.43% to 49.67%. The growth is attributed to the continued penetration of image sensor products in automotive intelligent driving and other application markets, with Q2 revenue reaching a historical high [2] - ChipLink Integrated achieved H1 2025 revenue of 3.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Q2 revenue was 1.76 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year. Despite being in a capacity ramp-up phase, the company reported a gross margin of 3.5% for H1, with expectations of turning positive from June 2024. The overall demand in the domestic chip foundry market appears strong [3] - Rongbai Technology reported H1 2025 revenue of 6.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.28%, with a net profit of -68.39 million yuan, down 765.45% year-on-year. The decline is primarily due to volatile raw material prices and increased R&D expenses, which rose by 22.44% year-on-year. The three-element material industry is currently at a cyclical low, characterized by low product prices and high inventory levels [6] Group 2: Industry Trends - The domestic CIS chip companies, including Haowei Group, are performing well, indicating a rapid progress in domestic substitution. Despite Sony's CIS revenue being several times that of Haowei Group, the outlook for the domestic CIS industry remains positive [2] - The domestic chip foundry market is showing good overall prosperity, with expectations for strong performance from companies like SMIC in the future [3] - The three-element lithium battery material industry is experiencing a downturn, with signs of industry consolidation as companies with poor cost control and tight cash flow are likely to be accelerated out of the market. Phosphate lithium is gaining market share due to its cost advantages, while three-element lithium is losing growth momentum [6]

Macro Economic Group - In July, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US increased by 73,000, the lowest level in nine months, with a downward revision of the previous two months' figures totaling a decrease of 258,000 jobs [2][4] - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor force participation rate was 62.2%, slightly down from the previous month [2][4] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year in July, slightly above expectations, indicating ongoing wage pressures in the labor market [2][4] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Xiangfenghua, a company specializing in lithium battery anode materials, reported a revenue of 688 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of 2.95 million yuan, down 107.7% [12] - The decline in revenue is attributed to oversupply in the market and intensified competition, leading to a drop in product prices [12] - The overall capacity utilization in the lithium battery anode materials industry is around 60%, indicating severe structural overcapacity and heightened competition [12] Automotive Industry Group - Major automotive companies such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen reported significant declines in their half-year performance, with Mercedes-Benz's sales revenue dropping by 8.6% to 72.6 billion euros [13] - The performance decline is attributed to US tariffs and fierce competition in the Chinese market, highlighting a shift in market dynamics where Chinese automakers are increasingly competitive [13] - New energy vehicle manufacturers like XPeng and Leap Motor reported substantial sales growth, with XPeng delivering 36,717 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229% [14] Consumer Electronics Group - XGIMI Technology expects a significant improvement in its half-year performance, with projected revenue of 1.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, and a net profit of 88.66 million yuan, up 2062.33% [16] - The growth is driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, alongside successful product launches and expansion into overseas markets [16] - The company is also diversifying its business by entering the vehicle-mounted and commercial sectors, supporting its growth strategy [16]

Macro Economic Group - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] - The production index for July was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while new orders fell to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction [4] - The inventory index for finished products was 47.4%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points, suggesting worsening supply-demand dynamics in the manufacturing sector [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - The U.S. President's letter to major pharmaceutical companies demands a reduction in drug prices to match overseas levels, which may negatively impact domestic innovative drug valuations if Chinese prices are referenced [8] - The National Internet Information Office's inquiry into NVIDIA regarding security risks of H20 chips is expected to strengthen domestic AI chip development, with global AI application demand growing rapidly [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - CATL reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, driven by a 16.80% growth in the power battery system segment [11] - The market penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 50.4% in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing demand for power and storage batteries [12] - CATL's solid-state battery production is expected to begin in small scale by 2027, with significant implications for future market valuations based on technological advancements [12] Consumer Group - Bailong Chuangyuan reported a revenue of 650 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.29%, with a net profit growth of 42.68% [14] - The growth is attributed to the ramp-up of new production projects, including soluble dietary fiber and crystallized sugar, which have improved product margins [15] - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food raw material is expected to boost demand for functional sweeteners, positioning Bailong Chuangyuan favorably in the market [16]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 31 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 事件一： 证书编号： S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 7 月 31 日（星期四）2 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025 年第五次议息会 议。 点评一： 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布了 2025 年的第五份利率决议。其中显示，有投票 权的 12 位 FOMC 委员中 9 人赞成、2 人反对、1 人缺席未投票（美联储理事库格勒） 通过，美联储决定将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25%—4.50%不变，这是美联储自 去年 9 月开启降息周期以来再次暂停降息，符合市场预期。这是 1993 年以来首次 出现有 2 位美联储理事在利率决议中投反对票，2 位投反对票的委员分别是负责美 联储监管事务的副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒，此 2 人均为特朗普任命，反映其对美联储 的施压正在产生影响，因为以前鲍曼是著名的鹰派，而沃勒则是想竞争下一任美联 储主席。 本次声明与 6 月相比，比 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The mature process chip foundry industry remains robust, with World Advanced reporting Q2 2025 revenue of 11.699 billion, a 5.7% year-on-year increase, and operating profit of 1.896 billion, up 10% [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 28.04%, and the operating margin was 16.2%, both higher than the previous year's figures of 26.01% and 15.58% respectively [2] - The demand for semiconductors in communications, industrial, and automotive sectors is recovering, with wafer shipments expected to increase by 3-5% quarter-on-quarter and average selling prices by 0-2% [2] Group 2: AI Chip Demand - Due to strong demand in the Chinese market, NVIDIA has placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips with TSMC, moving away from solely relying on existing inventory of 600,000 to 700,000 chips [3] - The EU plans to purchase 40 billion euros worth of AI chips as part of a trade agreement with the US, indicating a positive outlook for global AI chip demand [3] - The domestic AI industry chain, including optical communication and PCB sectors, is expected to maintain a favorable market condition [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - The establishment of China Changan Automobile Group on July 29, with a registered capital of 20 billion and total assets of 308.7 billion, signals a policy boost for the smart connected new energy vehicle industry [5] - The new group aims to enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese automotive brands and is expected to create synergies and efficiency improvements in the market [5] - The formation of three major state-owned automotive groups will likely increase competition and resource concentration among leading companies, potentially accelerating the industry's evolution [5] Group 4: Consumer Sector Performance - Laopuyuan Gold anticipates a revenue of 12-12.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241%-255%, and a net profit of 2.23-2.28 billion yuan, up 279%-288% [7] - The expected net profit margin for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 17.8%-19.0%, an increase from 16.7% in the same period of 2024, driven by the expansion of direct sales channels and rising gold prices [7] - The company is actively expanding its store locations in high-end shopping centers and plans to optimize existing stores, which is expected to contribute significantly to performance in the second half of the year [7]

Group 1: Electronic Materials Industry - In the first half of 2025, China's copper-clad laminate imports amounted to 19,788 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the first half of 2024, with an average import price of $34.01 per kilogram, up 28.44% year-on-year. Exports were 44,283 tons, down 12.18%, with an average export price of $7.56 per kilogram, up 20.21% year-on-year. The price increases for imports and exports in the first half of 2025 exceeded those during the pandemic period from 2019 to 2022, indicating a high level of prosperity in the copper-clad laminate and PCB industries. The demand for AI is rapidly increasing across various sectors, and the performance iteration of AI servers is advancing quickly, leading to a positive outlook for the PCB and copper-clad laminate industries [1] Group 2: Smartphone Market - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone shipments totaled 67.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 4%. Huawei's shipments reached 12.2 million units, up 15%, while Xiaomi shipped 10.4 million units, a 3% increase. Apple benefited from significant price reductions, selling 10.1 million units, a 4% increase. Other brands generally experienced negative growth. The first half of the year focused on inventory digestion, but with a notable year-on-year increase in smartphone production in July, new model releases, and ongoing consumer subsidies, the market is expected to maintain positive growth in the latter half of the year. Imaging technology remains a key highlight for smartphone upgrades, supporting optimism for related sub-industries [2] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - A recent program by Dongche Di and CCTV tested 36 vehicle models, with Tesla's Model 3 and Model X achieving first and second place, respectively. Tesla's performance in China was noted to be exceptional despite the lack of local training data. On July 26, Tesla showcased its intelligent driving plans at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, indicating further developments in China. This testing underscores Tesla's leading position in intelligent driving technology, suggesting that top software and algorithms can surpass hardware capabilities. This trend may force other automakers to invest more in data, model training, and software optimization, accelerating industry consolidation and marginalizing companies lacking core software capabilities [5][6] Group 4: Automotive Market - In June 2025, China accounted for 36% of the global automotive market, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year. Global automotive sales reached 8.06 million units, a 3% year-on-year increase and a 2% increase from May. Chinese brands like BYD, Geely, and Chery ranked 6th, 9th, and 10th globally, respectively. The era of fuel vehicles defined by Europe, America, and Japan is ending, giving way to a new era led by China in the fields of new energy and intelligence, which will significantly reshape the fate of automakers and impact global economic, technological, and trade dynamics [6] Group 5: Education Sector - Xueda Education reported an expected net profit of 228 to 259 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% to 60%, with a median growth rate of 51%. The revenue growth was driven by both increased enrollment and price hikes. The company plans to expand its network from over 240 to more than 300 locations, covering over 100 cities, with a teaching staff exceeding 4,000. The second quarter typically sees a peak in course consumption, and combined with increased average transaction prices, this has led to significant revenue growth. The implementation of a new cash subsidy policy for families with children under three years old is expected to further support the education sector [9][10]