Macroeconomic Group - In October, China's general public finance revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% for January to October, marking four consecutive months of recovery [5] - General public finance expenditure increased by 2.0% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5] - Tax revenue for January to October saw a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, with the highest growth in securities stamp duty at 88.1%, although it decreased by 15.3 percentage points from the previous month [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - In October 2025, sales of various types of forklifts reached 114,250 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with domestic sales at 70,388 units, up 16.2% [8] - For January to October, a total of 1,220,656 forklifts were sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, with domestic sales increasing by 13.4% [8] - The forklift industry is experiencing significant acceleration in both domestic and export sales, indicating strong investment value in the current market environment [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Rongbai Technology signed a cooperation agreement with CATL, becoming the primary supplier of sodium-ion battery anode materials, securing at least 60% of the total procurement volume [11] - The sodium-ion battery industry is transitioning from demonstration applications to systematic industrialization, with new production capacities exceeding 20GWh being established [11] - The sodium battery sector is expected to enter a period of explosive growth in the coming years, creating a competitive landscape alongside lithium batteries [11] Consumer Group - The EU may initiate anti-dumping investigations within two weeks, which could impact the industry in the short term but may benefit leading companies in the long term [13] - Leading companies like Ninebot and Ecovacs have a low revenue share from lawn mower robots, positioning them well against low-priced competitors [13] - The global penetration rate for lawn mower robots is expected to rise rapidly, with significant growth potential driven by technological advancements and the trend towards lithium battery integration [14]

Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from September, while the market expectation was 5.5% [4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to October was 6.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from January to September [4] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, marking the lowest level since June 2020, and significantly below the market expectation of -0.7% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods in October nominally grew by 2.9%, continuing a decline for five consecutive months, and was below the market expectation of 2.7% [5] Industry Insights - Huawei is set to release a breakthrough technology in the AI field on November 21, which could increase the utilization rate of GPU and NPU resources from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70%, significantly enhancing hardware potential [9] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons in 2025, with supply capacity at over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential surplus [10] - The sales of new energy heavy trucks in October reached 20,290 units, a year-on-year increase of 144%, indicating strong market demand [12] - The pet health products industry is expected to see a surge in demand due to the aging pet population, with a shift from preventive to essential health care products [14] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index volatility increased by 3.9% last week, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid concerns over AI tech stocks and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [16] - The domestic market is experiencing a "high-low cut" sentiment, with consumer indices rising while high P/E indices are declining, indicating a shift in investor focus [16] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced minor fluctuations last week, with short-term yields rising slightly due to unstable funding conditions, while the overall economic data released was weak but within market expectations [18]

Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from September, while the market expectation was 5.5% [4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to October was 6.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from January to September [4] - The fixed asset investment year-on-year growth rate from January to October was -1.7%, marking the lowest level since June 2020, and significantly below the WIND expectation of -0.7% [4] - The retail sales of consumer goods in October nominally grew by 2.9%, continuing a decline for five consecutive months, and was lower than the WIND expectation of 2.7% [5] Industry Insights - Huawei is set to release a breakthrough technology in the AI field on November 21, which could increase the utilization rate of GPU and NPU resources from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70%, significantly enhancing hardware potential [9] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons in 2025, with supply capacity at over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential price increase if demand grows beyond 30% in 2026 [10] - The sales of new energy heavy trucks in October reached 20,290 units, a year-on-year increase of 144%, indicating strong market demand [12] - The pet health products industry is expected to see increased demand due to the aging pet population, with a shift from preventive to essential health products as pet owners prioritize their pets' health [14] Market Strategy and Configuration - The SP500 index volatility increased by 3.9% last week, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid concerns over AI tech stocks and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [16] - The domestic market is experiencing a "high-low cut" sentiment, with consumer indices rising while high P/E indices fell, indicating a shift in market dynamics [16] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced minor fluctuations last week, with short-term yields rising slightly due to unstable funding, while the overall economic data released was weak but within market expectations [18]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 10 月银行信贷增量为 2200 亿元，Wind 预期为 4600 亿元，前值为 1.29 万亿。与 去年同期相比，同比减 2800 亿元，其中居民减 5204 亿元：中长期减 1800 亿元， 短期减 3356 亿元；企业增 2200 亿元：中长期减 1400 亿元，短期持平，票据增 3312 亿元，非银减 164 亿元。 10 月银行存款增量为 6100 亿元，前值为 2.21 万亿元。与去年同期相比，同比增 加 100 亿元，其中居民减 7700 亿元，企业减 3553 亿元，非银增 7700 亿元，财政 存款增 1248 亿元。 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、销售不及预期等变 化，而不如预期的可能。 分析师：刘笑瑜 事件： 11 月 14 日 17 点中国人民银行公布 10 月中国金融数据。 评论： 从存量上看， 10 月 M2 同比为 8.2%，Wind 预期为 8.0%，前值（9 月）为 8.4%； M1 同比为 6 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Cisco raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue outlook to over $61 billion, exceeding previous guidance by approximately $1 billion and surpassing Wall Street analysts' expectations. The expected earnings per share, excluding certain items, is projected at $4.14, higher than the analysts' average estimate of $4.05. This growth is primarily driven by increased demand for AI in secure networking [2] - AMD's CFO also raised long-term revenue growth expectations due to AI business demand, forecasting an overall revenue growth rate of approximately 35% over the next 3-5 years, with AI chip business growth potentially reaching 80% annually. The acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in the U.S. is confirmed, and domestic AI industry chain stocks may benefit from this news after recent price corrections [2] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - In October, China's battery sales reached 166.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%. Among these, power battery sales were 124.3 GWh, up 56.6%, while other battery sales were 41.7 GWh, increasing by 35.7%. The domestic power battery installation volume in October was 84.1 GWh, a 42.1% year-on-year growth, with ternary battery installations at 16.5 GWh (up 35.8%) and lithium iron phosphate battery installations at 67.5 GWh (up 43.7%). Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 80.3% of the total, maintaining a dominant position. The overall strength in production, sales, and installation in October suggests that November and December will likely be peak periods for the industry chain, with high demand in energy storage also driving power installations [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - According to data from the online retail analysis platform Star Map, the total e-commerce sales during the 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival reached 1,695 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. However, due to the extended promotional period of 28 days this year compared to 19 days last year, the adjusted year-on-year growth appears modest, indicating lower enthusiasm than in 2024. Overall, the domestic consumption growth rate is likely to remain low due to the diminishing effects of policies like trade-in programs [8]

Industry Overview - Taiwan's NOR Flash storage manufacturer Winbond indicated a 50% increase in NOR Flash usage due to the rising demand from AI servers transitioning from HBM3E to HBM4, with plans to raise NOR Flash prices by up to 30% in Q1 next year [3] - The AIOT sector is experiencing rapid growth, as evidenced by the performance of major domestic listed companies, indicating a clear upward trend in storage demand over the next two years [3] Advanced Manufacturing - CATL has made significant supply chain moves, including a framework agreement with Jiangyuan Technology to secure a minimum capacity of 626,000 tons and strategic investments in Tianhua New Energy to ensure lithium salt supply [7] - In October, battery production increased by 22.4% month-on-month, with utilization rates nearing 90%. CATL reported a saturated energy storage capacity with a production of approximately 180 GWh in Q3, maintaining a utilization rate above 90% [7] - The asset expenditure growth for CATL and other companies in the sector indicates a strong commitment to expanding capacity and innovation, suggesting a new cycle of prosperity for lithium batteries and related industries [7] Consumer Sector - On Running reported a Q2 net sales of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a 32% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 61.5% [9] - The company adjusted its full-year sales guidance to 2.91 billion Swiss francs, expecting a growth of at least 31% year-on-year [9] - Brooks, a professional running brand, achieved a 17% sales growth in Q3, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, supported by strong overseas market expansion [9] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are expected to continue their upward trend, with silver showing stronger rebounds than gold due to easing market liquidity and a decline in the US dollar index [11][12] - The increasing proportion of gold reserves held by global central banks and the net inflow of funds into physical gold ETFs reflect growing concerns over dollar credit and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - Silver's recent strong performance is attributed to its relatively low gold-silver ratio and low COMEX exchange inventories, suggesting continued strength in the silver market [12]

Macroeconomic Analysis - In October, China's CPI year-on-year was 0.2%, exceeding expectations of -0.1% and up from -0.3% in September. Core CPI rose to 1.2%, the highest since October 2023, from 1.0% in the previous month [4] - October's PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of recovery, with expectations at -2.3% [5] Industry Insights - The fund industry is seeing regulatory changes with the draft guidelines for theme investment funds, which may lead to a reallocation of investments towards underperforming sectors like chemicals and consumer goods [8] - TSMC reported October revenue of NT$367.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, although it is the lowest growth rate since February 2024. The demand for AI chips remains strong, with expected Q4 revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of approximately 35% [8] Advanced Manufacturing - The cost pressures for lithium carbonate production are increasing due to a required payment of 177 million yuan for mining rights and a rise in resource tax rates. This could lead to a cost increase of 1,500 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate [11] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Anjuke Foods and Angel Yeast experiencing significant sales growth. The restaurant supply chain is also improving, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector [13] - The Hainan duty-free market is rebounding strongly, with sales in the first week of November up 34.86% year-on-year, driven by new policies that expand product categories and customer eligibility [14]

Macroeconomic Group - In October, China's export growth rate decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in RMB terms, down from 8.4% in September, while import growth was 1.4%, down from 7.5% [4] - The trade surplus for October was $90.1 billion, lower than the expected $113.7 billion and slightly down from $90.4 billion in September [4] - The decline in export growth is attributed to several factors, including fewer working days, a high base from last year, weakening manufacturing PMI in major Western economies, and increased tariffs from the U.S. [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - SanDisk has significantly raised the contract prices for NAND flash memory by up to 50% in November, marking the third price increase this year [10] - The demand for AI computing power is strong, suggesting that the current round of storage price increases may persist for a longer duration [10] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Tianqi Lithium announced long-term supply agreements with two battery companies, covering approximately 40% of their electrolyte demand for the next three years, totaling 1.595 million tons [13] - This move is aimed at mitigating price volatility risks of upstream raw materials, indicating potential price pressures for key upstream materials in 2026 [13] Consumer Group - The packaging paper market is experiencing a price increase trend, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying Paper raising prices by 30 to 150 RMB per ton [15] - The market average price for boxboard and corrugated paper has risen by 40 RMB per ton, driven by strong demand during the Double Eleven shopping festival [15][16] - The pulp market is seeing a decrease in both inventory and prices, alleviating cost pressures for paper manufacturers [16]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Huahong Semiconductor reported Q3 2025 revenue of $635.2 million, meeting expectations with a year-on-year growth of 20.7%, achieving a historical high [4] - Gross margin was 13.5%, exceeding guidance and increasing by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by an increase in average selling price (ASP) [4] - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin range of 12%-14%, indicating a continued improvement trend in the semiconductor industry [4] Group 2: Biotechnology Industry - BeiGene reported Q3 2025 revenue of 10.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, with a net profit of 689 million yuan compared to a loss of approximately 900 million yuan in the same period last year [4] - The significant growth was mainly driven by sales of self-developed products such as Baiyueze and licensed products, with Baiyueze achieving global revenue of $1 billion, a 51% year-on-year increase [4] - The company raised its 2025 revenue forecast lower limit from 35.8 billion yuan to 36.2 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin in the high range of 80%-90%, indicating the increasing realization of domestic innovative drug R&D capabilities in overseas markets [4] Group 3: Automotive Industry - In October, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.387 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with the new energy vehicle (NEV) market retailing 1.4 million units, up 17% year-on-year [7] - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 58.7%, with all growth in passenger cars coming from NEVs as fuel vehicles continued to decline [7] - The average price of NEVs in September was 158,000 yuan, down 8% year-on-year, indicating a potential weak price trend despite strong volume in November and December [7] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The production of industrial robots reached 595,000 units, and service robots reached 13.5 million sets in the first three quarters, exceeding the total production for 2024 [7] - The revenue of the national robotics industry grew by 29.5% year-on-year, driven by automation in manufacturing and multi-scenario applications [7] - With supportive policies like the "Guidance on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots," the robotics industry is expected to maintain structural high prosperity, particularly for companies with system integration and software capabilities [7] Group 5: Entertainment Industry - Damai Entertainment announced a profit forecast for the first half of the fiscal year, expecting net profit to exceed 500 million yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 48%, significantly surpassing market expectations [9] - The core driver of this performance was the explosive growth of the Alibaba IP business, particularly from new IPs like Chiikawa, which significantly boosted related business revenue and profits [9] - There is a growing market expectation that the reopening of Korean group performances in China will become a core catalyst for growth in Damai's ticketing business next year [9]

Macro Economic Group - The US October Services PMI is reported at 52.4%, exceeding expectations of 50.8% and up from September's 50%. New orders increased to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, marking a one-year high. The price index rose to 70%, up 0.6 percentage points, the highest in three years. The employment index is at 48.2%, showing a slight recovery but remaining in contraction for the fifth consecutive month [4] - The ADP employment data for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 30,000 and adjusting September's figure from a decrease of 32,000 to an increase of 29,000. This brings a two-month total increase of 103,000 jobs, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December [4] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate on November 5 is reported at 119,000 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 78.7%. This price surge is driven by explosive demand from the new energy and storage industries, coupled with cautious supply-side capacity expansion. The effective domestic production capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2024 is estimated at 370,000 tons per year, with major players holding over 66% market share [11] Consumer Group - Sanrio's latest financial report indicates a 141.7% year-on-year increase in its China merchandise business for Q2 2025, attributed to the expansion of new and pop-up stores, as well as the popularity of IPs like Kuromi and Cinnamoroll. This reflects a successful multi-IP strategy, transitioning from single licensing to a dual-driven model of licensing and retail, supporting a high growth expectation of 50%-70% for the coming year [13][14] - Alibaba Pictures, as the core operator for Sanrio in China, benefits from exclusive licensing rights for 26 character figures, which is expected to drive growth in licensing and retail business. Guangbo Co., as a licensed distributor for Sanrio's cultural and food products, is also anticipated to see profit growth from new IP releases [13][14]