证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 14 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 正在中东访问的特朗普透露，美国正在考虑一项允许阿联酋进口超过 100 万颗先进 英伟达公司芯片的协议，这一数量远远超出了拜登时代人工智能芯片法规的限制。 从现在到 2027 年，阿联酋每年可以进口 50 万颗市场上最先进的芯片。其中五分之 一将留给阿布扎比人工智能公司 G42，其余的将留给在阿联酋建设数据中心的美国 公司。同时 AMD 与沙特人工智能公司 Humain 达成 100 亿美元的战略合作，双方将投 资高达 100 亿美元，在未来 5 年内部署 500 兆瓦的人工智能算力。同时昨天新闻有 传美国将取消拜登时代人工智能芯片法规的限制，因此我们看好 AI 基础设施的需求 景气度持续。 胜宏科技公告，公司及子公司 2025 年度拟使用合计不超过人民币 30 亿元用于固定 资产、无形资产购买，投资范围包括新厂房及工程建设、设备购置 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 5 月 13 日 4 月重卡销量重回正增长 电动化或成竞争关键 核心观点： 第一创业证券研究所 风险提示： 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 6 页 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 根据第一商用车网披露的数据，2025 年 4 月份我国重卡市场共计销售 9 万辆 左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），同比增长约 9.4%。相对于一季度重 卡总计销量约 26.5 万辆，同比减少约 2.7%的情况，4 月份重卡销量的增长表 现较好。说明 3 月 18 日交通运输部、国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于实 施老旧营运货车报废更新的通知》发布后，对重卡销售的正面刺激已开始。 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 根据第一商用车网数据，4 月份新能源重卡终端销量预计在 1.25 万-1.3 万辆， 同比增长超过 1.7 倍，创造了该细分领域 4 月销量的新高，行业渗透率在 20% 左右。4 月份天然气重卡月销量降至 2 万辆以下，同比降幅超过 35%，渗透率 在 26-27%左右。从 2023 年开始，新能源重卡销量 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [24]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the heavy truck market in China saw sales of approximately 90,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 9.4%. This growth is attributed to the positive impact of the policy issued on March 18 regarding the scrapping and updating of old operational trucks [4][5]. - The sales of new energy heavy trucks reached between 12,500 and 13,000 units in April, marking a year-on-year increase of over 170%, with an industry penetration rate of around 20%. This rapid growth in new energy heavy trucks suggests that electrification is becoming a key competitive factor in the industry [10][11]. - The implementation of the policy for scrapping old operational trucks is expected to accelerate heavy truck sales growth, as the actual rollout of the policy may lag behind its announcement [15]. - Economic indicators for the first quarter of 2025 show improvements, with fixed asset investment reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. This includes a 5.8% growth in infrastructure investment, which is beneficial for heavy truck sales [19]. Summary by Sections 1. April Heavy Truck Sales Recovery - In April 2025, heavy truck sales in China rebounded to approximately 90,000 units, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, contrasting with a 2.7% decline in the first quarter [4][5][6]. 2. New Energy Heavy Truck Growth - New energy heavy truck sales in April are estimated at 12,500 to 13,000 units, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 170% and a penetration rate of about 20% [10][11]. 3. Policy Implementation and Sales Growth - The rollout of the old truck scrapping policy is expected to take time, which may lead to a delayed reflection of its effects on heavy truck sales in April [15]. 4. Economic Data Supporting Heavy Truck Demand - The first quarter of 2025 showed a 4.2% increase in fixed asset investment, with significant growth in sectors like agriculture and water management, which are likely to boost heavy truck demand [19].

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Samsung has finalized new pricing with major clients, planning to increase DDR4 prices by approximately 20% and DDR5 prices by about 5% [3] - In April, the price of PC DDR4 8Gb increased by 22.22% month-on-month in the international market [3] - Domestic storage module companies are expected to see performance improvements similar to the first half of 2024 due to the price hikes from original manufacturers [3] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Battery Industry - In April, China's total exports of power and other batteries reached 22.3 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% but a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [3] - From January to April, cumulative exports reached 83.9 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 83.2%, accounting for 20.8% of cumulative sales in the first four months [3] - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to improve due to sustained high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales and increasing overseas demand [3] Group 3: Coffee Industry - Luckin Coffee reported Q1 2025 revenue of 8.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, with operating profit reaching 740 million yuan and an operating margin of 8.3% [6] - The number of monthly active customers reached 74.27 million, a year-on-year increase of 24%, indicating improved customer engagement [6] - The rising cost of coffee beans, currently at historical highs, may pressure future gross margins as the company begins to implement inventory replenishment plans [6]

Group 1: Company Performance - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2,247.2 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8%, but below the previous guidance [3] - For Q2 2025, SMIC's revenue guidance indicates a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4% to 6%, with gross margin expected to be between 18% and 20%, down from 22.5% in Q1 [3] - The lower-than-expected performance in Q1 and the negative guidance for Q2 are attributed to internal production issues leading to a decrease in yield, although the company believes these issues are one-time events that can be resolved in Q2 and Q3 [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The 137th Canton Fair attracted 288,900 overseas buyers from 219 countries and regions, marking a 17.3% increase compared to the previous session, setting a new record [3] - Intentional export transactions at the fair reached $25.44 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, indicating resilience in China's foreign trade despite potential impacts from the US tariff war [3] - In April 2025, retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.791 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while cumulative retail sales for the year reached 6.918 million units, up 9% year-on-year [4] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in April 2025 were 922,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a penetration rate of 52.3% [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The recent India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the effectiveness of Chinese military equipment, with Pakistan's air force achieving significant success against Indian aircraft, primarily using Chinese-made J-10CE and JF-17 fighter jets [3][4]. - The cost-effectiveness of Chinese military equipment is evident, as the average procurement price for Pakistan's J-10CE is approximately $76 million, significantly lower than India's Rafale fighter jets, which average around $288 million each [12]. - The global military expenditure is projected to reach $2.72 trillion in 2024, marking a 9.4% increase from 2023, with global arms exports exceeding $111.6 billion, reflecting a growing market for military equipment [12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: India-Pakistan Conflict - On May 7, 2025, India launched an operation against Pakistan, resulting in Pakistan's air force claiming to have shot down six Indian aircraft, including three Rafale jets [3][4]. - The effectiveness of Chinese military equipment in this conflict demonstrates its operational capabilities, which are competitive with Western and Russian systems [10]. Section 2: Comparison of Military Equipment - The performance comparison of advanced fighter jets shows that the J-10CE has superior radar detection capabilities and missile range compared to Indian and older U.S. models [11]. - Pakistan's air force is increasingly equipped with Chinese technology, including 36 J-10CE jets and 161 JF-17 jets, enhancing its combat capabilities [11]. Section 3: Global Military Market Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in global military spending and arms exports, with China's share of the global arms export market being less than 3% [12][14]. - The ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive demand for Chinese military equipment in various regions, particularly in the Middle East [15].

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Market - In Germany, Tesla's sales in April decreased by 45.9% year-on-year, with a 60.4% decline from January to April 2025 [2] - In contrast, BYD's sales in Germany surged over 8 times in April, reaching 1,566 units, with total sales increasing nearly 5 times to 2,791 units since the beginning of the year [2] - Tesla's new car sales in the UK dropped by 62% in April, marking the lowest level in over two years [2] - The easing of EU restrictions on importing Chinese electric vehicles, coupled with rapid technological advancements in domestic new energy vehicles, is expected to boost the export growth of local automotive brands [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The recent reduction in production of DDR4 and LPDDR4X by storage manufacturers has led to a tight supply of certain DDR and LPDDR4X resources in the spot market [3] - Following a period of price decline, DDR5 prices have increased by over 10% from their low point at the beginning of the year, while DDR4 prices have risen by approximately 5% [3] - The ongoing rapid deployment of AI is anticipated to enhance the industry outlook for domestic storage-related companies [3] Group 3: Sportswear Industry - In 2024, the sports footwear and apparel retail sector achieved revenue of 141.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with net profit reaching 21.49 billion yuan, up 35.1% [5] - The industry is showing signs of steady recovery, with improvements in key financial metrics such as gross margin and net margin, while maintaining healthy inventory levels [5] - There is a significant structural differentiation in growth momentum, with leading companies like Anta showing a notable profit increase, while other brands are experiencing a contraction in store numbers [5] - The upstream OEM sector for sportswear has also seen a significant recovery, with revenue of 119.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, and net profit of 15.03 billion yuan, up 36.9% [5] - The industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity in 2025, with a focus on leading companies that target high-growth segments and emphasize product innovation [6]

Group 1: Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing - The European Commission announced on April 28 that it will impose additional tariffs of up to 66.7% on aerial work platforms imported from China, affecting companies like Hunan Xibang Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., Zoomlion Intelligent Aerial Work Machinery Co., Ltd., and Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co., Ltd. [2] - The new tariffs will range from 20.6% to 66.7%, significantly impacting the profitability of the industry, especially for companies heavily reliant on exports to Europe and the US [2]. Group 2: Consumer Sector - BeiYinMei reported total revenue of 2.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, and a net profit of 103 million yuan, up 116.92%. The growth was attributed to a decrease in sales expenses and better control of credit impairment losses [7]. - The company’s main business, infant formula, grew by only 7%, indicating a gap in market share compared to leading competitors. However, recent financial improvements and favorable government policies on childbirth subsidies are expected to boost demand for infant formula [7]. - The domestic market is seeing a clear trend of replacing imported brands due to rising costs from US-China tariff uncertainties, presenting new opportunities for BeiYinMei [7]. Group 3: Alcohol Industry - Companies like Fenjiu, ShuiJingFang, and JinShiYuan reported single-digit growth in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, aligning with the overall development trend of the liquor industry [8]. - The financial ratios of publicly listed liquor companies indicate a negative growth in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, reflecting insufficient growth momentum and ongoing adjustments within the industry [8].

Macroeconomic Overview - In March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 1509.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a profit growth of 2.6% in March alone [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year profit increase of 7.6% for the first three months, rebounding by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous two months [3] - The profit margin for operating income was 4.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous two months, while the asset-liability ratio stood at 57.7% [3] Industry Performance - The industries with the highest year-on-year profit growth in March included railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals and textiles [3] - Conversely, industries such as coal mining, furniture manufacturing, and textile and apparel faced significant declines in profit [3] - Specific profit growth rates for various industries in March are detailed in the report, highlighting significant variances across sectors [4] Automotive Sector Insights - The retail volume of passenger vehicles in April is estimated to be around 1.75 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, slightly faster than the 14.3% growth in March [6] - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to reach 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, although this is lower than the 41.9% growth seen in March [6] - The overall discount rate in the domestic passenger car market is approximately 23.7%, indicating a slight recovery from the end of March [6] Nuclear Power Industry Developments - The State Council approved five new nuclear power projects, totaling 10 new units, with an estimated total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan [8] - The investment intensity for each third-generation nuclear power unit is approximately 20 billion yuan, indicating a significant commitment to nuclear energy development [8] - The continuous approval of nuclear power units over the past four years is expected to sustain the industry's growth and investment opportunities [8] Consumer Sector Analysis - New Hope's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 103.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27.3%, while net profit increased by 90.1% [10] - The liquor industry, represented by Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, is experiencing a slowdown, with revenue and profit growth rates in the single digits [10] - Gree Electric achieved a revenue of 190.04 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 7.3%, but net profit grew by 10.9%, indicating a positive trend in the first quarter of 2025 [10]

Group 1: Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing - The largest global analog chip sales company, TI, reported Q1 2025 revenue of $4.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding the guidance range of $3.74-4.06 billion set in Q4 2024 [2] - Gross margin was 56.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, but better than previous guidance. For Q2 2025, revenue guidance is set at $4.17-4.53 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 19% at the midpoint [2] - Demand in the downstream industrial sector saw a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in orders after seven consecutive quarters of decline, signaling a recovery across all areas and regions of the industrial market [2] - In the automotive sector, Q1 orders showed low single-digit growth, while the personal electronics sector experienced a 5% decline in orders. TI noted that inventory destocking in the analog sector is largely complete, with demand recovery trends also reflected in the latest earnings calls of competitors ADI and Renesas [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Yangjie Technology reported a 2024 revenue of 6.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with a gross margin of 38.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.28 billion yuan, a 40.3% increase [3] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 450 million yuan, up 72.1% [3] - The revenue growth was driven by increased demand in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic inverter, and industrial control sectors, alongside the ramp-up of new products like IGBT and SiC devices [3] - IGBT revenue for 2024 reached 1.28 billion yuan, a 75% increase, indicating strong competitiveness in new product development [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Ruoyu Chen achieved a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.26%, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, up 94.58%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 574 million yuan, a 54.16% increase, with net profit growing 113.88% [5] - The self-owned brand business generated 500 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 90% increase, accounting for 28% of total revenue. Brand management business revenue also reached 500 million yuan, growing over 200% [5] - Growth was driven by the introduction of new brands and the performance of existing brands across all channels, with significant growth in self-operated GMV on platforms like Douyin [5] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, rising nearly 10 percentage points since the beginning of the year, reflecting effective product structure optimization and cost control [5]