Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 48.2%, below the expected 49% and the previous month's 48.7%, indicating a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario [4] - The output index for November is at 51.4%, a recovery of 3.2 percentage points from October, returning to the expansion zone [4] - New orders index for November is at 47.4%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month, while new export orders are at 46.2%, indicating contraction [4] - The employment index is at 44%, down 2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in employment [4] - The price index is at 58.5%, showing upward pressure on prices despite a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Doubao launched the Doubao Mobile Assistant, demonstrating AI Agent applications with Nubia smartphones, which significantly ease users' daily tasks [7] - The collaboration smartphone priced at 3499 yuan quickly sold out, indicating strong market interest despite some performance issues in complex tasks [7] - The emergence of this application model alleviates investor concerns about an AI investment bubble, suggesting a positive outlook for the AI sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the revenue models and demand trends for independent energy storage stations vary across eight provinces, with investment returns generally exceeding 8%, and some reaching 10%-15% [10] - The investment logic in the energy storage sector is shifting from relying on subsidies to identifying system bottlenecks [10] - The high prosperity of the energy storage industry is expected to first manifest in rapid installation growth, followed by intense competition in the equipment sector [10] Consumer Group - Macau's GGR recovery rate for November reached 92.2%, the highest in 2023, indicating strong high-end demand and reinforcing growth logic in the sector [12] - The performance of the luxury goods sector is expected to improve, supported by positive trends in international tourism and high hotel occupancy rates [12] - The e-commerce sector saw a significant increase, with Ruoyuchen's self-owned brand sales surging 35 times year-on-year, validating the success of its brand incubation strategy [13]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 1 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 事件： 11 月非制造业 PMI 指数为 49.5%，较上月回落 0.6 个百分点，是 2023 年以来首次 回落至收缩区间。其中，服务业为 49.5%，较上月回落 0.7 个百分点；而建筑业 为 49.6%，较上月回升 0.5 个百分点，连续 4 个月处于 50%以下的收缩区间。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7%，较 10 月回落 0.3 百分点，也是 2023 年以来首次 回落至收缩区间。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 4 页 晨会纪要 11 月 30 日 9 点半国家统计局公布 11 月 PMI 数据。 评论： 11月中国制造业PMI为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。其中，大型企业为49.3%， 较上月回落 0.6 个百分点；中型企业为 48.9%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分点；小型 企业为 ...

Macro Economic Overview - In the first ten months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, although it fell by 1.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months, marking the second-highest point in a year [5] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 7.7% in the first ten months, down 2.2 percentage points from the first nine months [5] - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the 21.6% growth in September, with manufacturing profits declining by 10.6% [5] Industry Performance - The profit growth rates varied across industries, with upstream sectors showing divergence, downstream sectors performing poorly, and midstream sectors faring better [6] - Industries with higher year-on-year growth rates in the first ten months included non-ferrous metals, transportation equipment manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing, while coal, steel, and textile industries lagged behind [6] - Specific profit growth rates for various industries in October compared to September and the first ten months are detailed in the report [7] Consumer and Economic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to increase residents' income and consumption rates, indicating a shift in policy focus towards enhancing consumer spending rather than fixed asset investment [9] - Recent policy changes, such as extending maternity leave and increasing marriage leave, are expected to boost consumer spending, presenting investment opportunities in consumer-related sectors in the coming years [9] Technological Developments - A meeting on the construction of a space data center revealed plans to build a large-scale data center system in low Earth orbit, with significant technological advancements expected between 2025 and 2035 [10] - The commercial space sector is anticipated to gain attention as applications continue to expand, particularly in the context of AI and energy shortages [10] Company-Specific Developments - Jerry Holdings recently signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets for data centers in North America, valued at over 100 million USD, indicating strong demand for gas turbines as a solution to power shortages [11] - The company has established a solid technical foundation in gas turbines and has collaborated with Siemens, suggesting a positive outlook for the gas turbine supply chain [11]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The A-share communication equipment industry index saw a significant increase, with a peak rise of over 8%, primarily driven by the surge in stock prices of optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang. This increase is attributed to reports of Google placing a large number of urgent orders for optical modules in the supply chain, particularly focusing on 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules [2] - Dell's Q3 FY2026 earnings call indicated a notable acceleration in AI growth, with a record backlog of $18.4 billion and a continuous increase in project reserves over the next five quarters, suggesting robust demand growth in the industry [2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are expected to create a favorable market environment, with an 85% probability of interest rate cuts, which could support a sustained rebound in the A-share market [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Sanya City launched the sixth phase of duty-free consumption vouchers on November 19, 2025, which will run until December 31, 2025. The vouchers offer discounts ranging from "6000 minus 300" to "50000 minus 4000," aimed at stimulating consumer spending among eligible travelers and residents [6] - Historical data indicates that duty-free consumption vouchers have a significant leverage effect, often leading to multiple times increase in consumption and a notable rise in average transaction value. The vouchers can be combined with in-store promotions, further enhancing consumer spending potential [6] - The issuance of consumption vouchers and the resulting increase in foot traffic are expected to strengthen the price rebound logic post-price hikes, making local retail and service enterprises in Hainan well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6]

Macro Economic Group - The report indicates that the US PPI remained stable in September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 0.1%, slightly below the expected 0.2% [5] - Retail sales in the US showed a disappointing performance in September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The report highlights a "K-shaped" recovery in consumer spending, with a decline in auto sales attributed to the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, alongside a soft job market and low consumer confidence [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating to "Sell," lowering the lithium price forecast for the second half of 2026 by 14% to $9,500 per ton due to weak downstream market feedback and slowing inventory replenishment [12] - The report predicts a 12% shortfall in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [12] - The report remains optimistic about mid-term lithium demand and price stability, citing a projected 46% growth in energy storage battery demand in 2026 [12] Consumer Group - Bilibili reported Q3 total revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 786 million yuan [14][15] - The company achieved a GAAP operating profit of 354 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 66.7 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [15] - Advertising revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 2.57 billion yuan, becoming the core growth engine for the company, while gaming revenue declined by 17% to 1.51 billion yuan due to high base effects from the previous year [15]

证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 行业龙头上调业绩指引，户外行业景气度不减 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1页共 4页 户外品牌龙头亚玛芬体育与昂跑 2025 年以来业绩表现亮眼，均多次上调财年 业绩指引。亚玛芬体育凭借"多品牌、跨区域、DTC 驱动"战略，2Q25 及 3Q25 调整后毛利率与 EBIT 率均超市场预期，收入指引持续上调，萨洛蒙、始祖鸟 等核心品牌及亚太、中国区域增速尤为突出；昂跑 3Q25 亚太地区净销售额增 速高达 109.2%。龙头企业的高增长与盈利扩张，印证了户外行业的高景气度。 国内户外市场正处于高速成长期，2019-2024 年高性能户外服饰市场 CAGR 达 13.8%，2025 年前三季度线上增速持续优于服装大盘。尽管中国户外运动参与 人数超 4 亿，但参与率仍低于欧美成熟市场，增长潜力充足。行业竞争格局 分散，高端市场由国际品牌主导，专业国产品牌凭借功能优势、高性价比或 渠道创新在中端市场突围， ...

Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal disagreement regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with notable dissenting votes from board members [3][4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 71%, up from less than 40% previously, following comments from key Federal Reserve officials [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - The power density of AI servers is advancing from 30kW to 100kW, leading to a consensus in the industry that the power supply architecture will evolve towards 800V high-voltage direct current [7] - There is a significant expectation gap regarding the pace and technical path of this transition, with 2025 identified as a "verification year" [7] - Traditional manufacturers face challenges from cross-industry competition, as the core technology of SST has shifted from traditional electromagnetic induction to power electronics, creating substantial technical barriers [7] - Investment recommendations focus on structural increments within the supply chain, advising to avoid negatively impacted traditional AC segments and to concentrate on three key benefiting areas: busbars, cabinet-level energy storage, and power modules [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Changxin Memory has launched its latest DDR5 memory series with speeds reaching 8000Mbps, a 25% improvement over the current market mainstream of 6400Mbps [9] - The introduction of 24Gb high-capacity chips surpasses the standard 16Gb capacity, indicating that domestic memory manufacturers are catching up with the latest DDR product technology [9] - The anticipated demand from AI is expected to boost the market for equipment and materials related to semiconductor wafer sales, particularly in memory [9] Consumer Group - Richemont Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a 14% year-on-year revenue growth, significantly higher than the 6% growth in Q1 FY26 [11][12] - The jewelry business, particularly brands like Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier, saw a 17% year-on-year increase, driving the overall revenue growth [11] - The recovery in sales across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, which collectively grew by 7%, indicates a clear improvement in momentum [11][12] Strategy and Allocation Group - The volatility in overseas markets may be nearing its end, with recent fluctuations in global risk assets, particularly in the stock and commodity markets [14] - Domestic markets are still in a phase of adjustment, with significant declines observed, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, indicating that short-term market adjustments are not yet over [15]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, major US stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.56%, and Nasdaq down 2.15%. AI-related tech stocks, including AMD and Oracle, saw significant drops, indicating a potential correction in the market [2] - The demand for AI computing power in the US is expected to face limitations due to electricity constraints and inherent flaws in LLM models, suggesting that the current high valuations of related stocks may not be sustainable [2] - The smartphone market in China showed signs of recovery, with a total shipment of 27.93 million units in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. 5G smartphones accounted for 24.11 million units, reflecting an 8.0% growth [3] - The Chinese government is considering new supportive policies for the real estate sector, including interest subsidies for new personal housing loans and increased tax deductions for homebuyers, which could alleviate financial pressure on consumers and stimulate economic growth [4] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - The lithium battery industry in China shows a high market concentration, with CR6 and CR10 indicating stable competition among leading firms. The positive scale effects of top companies are evident [7] - The cathode materials sector remains fragmented due to diverse technology routes and application scenarios, while the separator materials sector has the highest concentration with a CR10 of 94% [7] - The development of sodium batteries is gaining momentum, with predictions that by 2035, the ratio of lithium iron phosphate batteries to sodium batteries will be 4:6. The company plans to establish a production capacity of 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate by next year [8] Group 3: Consumer Sector - LVMH reported significant recovery in Q3 2025, particularly in the Chinese market, where local consumption shifted from negative to mid-single-digit growth. The trend of consumption returning to Hong Kong and mainland China is becoming established [10] - The innovative retail strategies employed by brands like LV have led to impressive terminal performance, with flagship stores in Shanghai achieving high foot traffic and sales [10] - The luxury goods sector is showing signs of warming, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [10]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Nvidia reported third-quarter operating results with revenue of $57.006 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, exceeding analyst expectations of $55.19 billion. The gross margin was 73.4%, down 1.2 percentage points from the same period last year, and net profit was $31.91 billion, up 65% year-on-year. Notably, data center revenue for the third quarter was $51.2 billion, also surpassing analyst expectations of $49.34 billion. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $63.7 billion to $66.3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.98 billion. Given Nvidia's performance and outlook, the storage industry is highlighted as a key area of focus due to significant price increases and transparent market pricing, making it a promising investment opportunity [2][3]. Group 2: Securities Industry - CICC announced a major asset restructuring plan, intending to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, with a suspension period not exceeding 25 trading days. The transfer of shares of three major AMCs to a subsidiary of CIC has occurred, necessitating the integration of numerous financial licenses to comply with regulations. This move is part of a broader trend towards consolidation in the securities industry, which is expected to enhance the investment outlook for the sector. Currently, the overall pricing of securities firms is weaker than the peak in September last year, presenting significant upside potential as the A-share market recovers [3]. Group 3: Passive Components - Fenghua Advanced Technology, a leading domestic passive components manufacturer, has announced price increases for various products ranging from 5% to 30%. Despite the stock price of passive components lagging behind the broader electronics sector, the performance of these companies continues to reach new highs each quarter, indicating strong valuation attractiveness. The market for passive components is primarily dominated by manufacturers from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, suggesting substantial growth potential and long-term investment value in this sector [4]. Group 4: Advanced Manufacturing - Perovskite solar cells are recognized for their significant advantages in laboratory efficiency and theoretical efficiency limits compared to crystalline silicon, making them a promising next-generation photovoltaic technology. Since 2025, several quasi-GW perovskite production lines have commenced operations, indicating an acceleration in industrialization. The market for perovskite modules is expected to reach approximately 20 billion yuan by 2030. However, most perovskite companies are relatively small, and their profit models are not yet stable, which could lead to market volatility. In contrast, equipment manufacturers typically see profit realization earlier than module manufacturers, making the equipment sector a more favorable risk-reward investment opportunity [7]. Group 5: Consumer Sector - Amer Sports reported a third-quarter performance that exceeded expectations, with revenue growing 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion and adjusted net profit surging 161% to $185 million. The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 23%-24%, reflecting the high demand in the global high-end outdoor sports market and the effectiveness of its strategic execution. Key growth drivers include a multi-brand strategy, with significant contributions from the Arc'teryx brand and Salomon's outdoor business, which saw growth rates of 31% and 36%, respectively [10][11].

Group 1: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of RMB 113.1 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, with a gross margin of 22.9%, marking a historical high [2] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, also a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 80.9% [2] - The revenue from the smartphone and AIoT segment was RMB 84.1 billion, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, while the global smartphone shipment declined by 0.5% [2] - Revenue from the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment was RMB 29 billion, showing a significant growth of 199.2%, accounting for 25.6% of total revenue, and achieving operational profitability for the first time with a profit of RMB 700 million [2] - Overall, Xiaomi outperformed the industry in growth across its mobile, home appliance, and automotive sectors, despite uncertainties due to the weak domestic economy [2] Group 2: Baidu - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 was RMB 31.2 billion, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with core revenue also down by 7% to RMB 24.7 billion [3] - Operating loss was RMB 15.1 billion, but after excluding long-term asset impairment, operating profit was RMB 1.1 billion [3] - Despite the overall poor performance, Baidu's AI new business revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 10 billion, with intelligent cloud infrastructure revenue at RMB 4.2 billion, up 33% [3] - AI high-performance computing subscription revenue surged by 128%, and the autonomous driving service "萝卜快跑" saw orders reach 3.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 212% [3] - The rapid growth of AI applications in both the US and domestic internet companies indicates a strong long-term investment value in the AI sector [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - The demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries is driving significant increases in production plans for leading companies in 2026, with CATL's annual production guidance exceeding 1.1 TWh, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [6] - EVE Energy has raised its 2026 energy storage battery shipment target to over 100 GWh, nearly doubling the expected shipments for 2025 [6] - Guoxuan High-Tech is expected to achieve a production growth rate of 45%, while Zhongxin Innovation aims for nearly 60% growth [6] - The steady growth in domestic power battery demand and the explosive growth in the energy storage sector are activating the entire industry chain, leading to price increases in upstream raw materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [6] - The high prosperity of the lithium battery-related industry is supported by multiple factors, including the transition to renewable energy, policy support, and technological advancements [6] Group 4: Leap Motor - Leap Motor achieved revenue of RMB 19.45 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, and turned a profit with a net profit of RMB 150 million [7] - The company's explosive growth is attributed to three main drivers: increased self-research and vertical integration in the supply chain, optimization of product structure with high-margin models, and expansion into overseas markets [7] - The management anticipates a significant profit increase in Q4 due to year-end tail effects and expected carbon credit income of RMB 500 million [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The mini-program gaming sector has transitioned from explosive growth to a phase of high-quality steady growth, with market revenue expected to reach RMB 39.836 billion in 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year [9] - In the first half of 2025, revenue continued to show high prosperity, reaching RMB 23.276 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.2% [9] - The commercialization structure is continuously optimizing, with a significant cost advantage for mini-program games on iOS due to a reduced commission rate of 15% compared to the traditional 30% for apps [9] - This policy is expected to accelerate the trend of "App to Mini" and improve developer profit margins, further expanding growth opportunities in the industry [9]