Core Insights - The collagen market is experiencing a downturn, with major brands like Kefu Mei and Juzhi Biotech showing a decline in growth and sales performance [1][5][6] - The market is undergoing a transformation, moving from a focus on consumer beauty products to medical applications, as companies adapt to changing consumer demands and competitive pressures [9][12][13] Market Performance - Kefu Mei's GMV on Douyin dropped to 0.5-0.75 billion yuan from over 1 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - Juzhi Biotech's stock price has fallen by 55.18% since reaching a peak of 85.14 HKD on May 20, 2023 [6][7] - The overall sales performance of collagen brands during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival was disappointing compared to previous years [5] Strategic Shifts - Juzhi Biotech is expanding into the B2B market by obtaining medical device registration for a collagen-based product, indicating a strategic shift towards medical applications [7][12] - Companies are increasingly focusing on technological advancements and clinical applications rather than just marketing and branding [10][13] Industry Trends - The collagen industry is moving away from purely cosmetic applications towards medical uses, with a focus on proving efficacy through clinical trials and regulatory approvals [9][12][13] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies needing to demonstrate the scientific validity of their products to gain market share [12][13] Innovation and Development - Huaxi Biotech is actively pursuing new patents related to collagen, indicating ongoing investment in research and development [10][11] - Companies like Furuida and Mianmei are also advancing in the medical device space, with new certifications and product developments aimed at surgical applications [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The collagen market is experiencing a downturn, with major brands like 可复美 and 巨子生物 showing significant declines in sales and market presence, indicating a shift from a previously thriving segment to a more cautious phase of industry consolidation and strategic realignment [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The overall performance of the collagen segment during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival was disappointing, with notable brands struggling to maintain their previous sales figures [3]. - Data from Citibank indicates that 巨子生物's products faced reduced price attractiveness due to stricter promotional strategies, leading to a decline in sales [4]. - 可复美's GMV on Douyin dropped to between 0.5 and 0.75 billion yuan, down from over 1 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a significant contraction in market demand [4]. - The brand's ranking on Douyin's beauty list fell from the top 10 to the 20th position, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences [4]. Strategic Shifts - Major players like 巨子生物 and 锦波生物 are expanding their business boundaries, moving from consumer markets to B2B opportunities, indicating a strategic pivot in response to market changes [5][6]. - 锦波生物's revenue and net profit growth rates hit a five-year low, with its market capitalization dropping from over 500 billion yuan to 267 billion yuan [5]. - 巨子生物's stock price has seen a decline of 55.18% since reaching a peak in May, reflecting investor concerns over slowing growth and product controversies [5]. Technological Advancements - The collagen market is transitioning from a focus on cosmetic applications to medical uses, with companies investing in R&D to meet regulatory standards for medical devices [7][8]. - 华熙生物 is actively pursuing new patents related to recombinant collagen, indicating a shift towards more scientifically validated products [7][8]. - The competition is now centered around material science and clinical validation, with companies needing to demonstrate the efficacy of their products to gain market share [9]. Industry Dynamics - The narrative surrounding collagen is evolving from a marketing-driven approach to one focused on scientific and clinical validation, with companies needing to establish robust production and quality control systems [9]. - The market is no longer driven by brand recognition alone; the ability to provide clinically proven, stable, and scalable products is becoming the new competitive edge [9].

Core Viewpoint - The collagen market is experiencing a downturn, with major brands like Kefu Mei and Juzhi Biotech showing declining sales and growth rates, indicating a shift from a previously booming market to a more cautious phase [1][3][5]. Market Performance - The overall performance of the collagen sector during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival was disappointing, with Kefu Mei's GMV on Douyin dropping to 0.5-0.75 billion yuan, down from over 1 billion yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - Juzhi Biotech's stock price has fallen by 55.18% since reaching a peak of 85.14 HKD on May 20, 2023, reflecting the company's struggles with slowing growth and ingredient controversies [5][6]. Strategic Shifts - Major players are beginning to cross market boundaries, with Juzhi Biotech expanding into B-end business and Kefu Mei attempting to adapt to changing market dynamics [6][7]. - The market is witnessing a transition from a focus on consumer products to medical applications, as companies aim to leverage technological advancements and regulatory clarity [7][10]. Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards a more scientific and clinical approach, with companies like Huaxi Biotech and Furuida actively pursuing medical device certifications and focusing on the development of injectable collagen products [8][9][10]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from brand recognition and channel dominance to a focus on material science and clinical validation, emphasizing the importance of proving product efficacy [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 31% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by new product launches and the multi-faceted empowerment from Yangshengtang [4][5] - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 879 million, 1.217 billion, and 1.56 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31, 22, and 17 times based on the closing price on November 7, 2025 [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.296 billion RMB (yoy +31%) and a net profit of 568 million RMB (yoy +9%) [7] - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to the increase in sales of medical devices and functional skincare products, with a notable rise in the sales of A-type recombinant human collagen products [7] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 1.904 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.98% [6][8] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high at around 90% for the coming years, indicating strong profitability [8] Product and Market Development - The company launched the new HiveCOL collagen product in July 2025, which is anticipated to drive growth in the medical aesthetics sector [7] - The company is actively expanding its market presence through online promotions and collaborations with both international and domestic brands, enhancing its sales channels [7] - The company has received regulatory approval for its recombinant type III human collagen freeze-dried fibers, which have broad application prospects in various medical fields [7]

Core Insights - The commercialization of Jinbo Bio (832982.BJ) remains a significant issue as the company faces industry-wide challenges despite maintaining revenue growth [1][12] - The third-quarter report indicates a revenue of 1.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.10%, and a net profit of 568 million yuan, up 9.29% [1] - The overall growth rate has noticeably slowed compared to previous years, reflecting a broader trend among collagen companies [1][12] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Jinbo Bio reported revenue growth of 62.51%, net profit growth of 66.25%, and a 70.92% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items [3] - By Q2, these figures dropped significantly, with revenue growth at 30.44%, net profit growth at 7.36%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 6.96% [4] - The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 13.36%, but net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 16.72%, and cash flow net amount decreased by 8.05% [6] Product and Market Dynamics - The performance fluctuations are attributed to changes in product contributions, particularly the decline in revenue from Wei Yimei, the only approved Class III recombinant collagen injection in China, which generated 645 million yuan in revenue, a 34.7% increase but a significant drop in growth rate [7] - Conversely, the functional skincare segment has emerged, achieving 121 million yuan in revenue, a 152.39% increase compared to the previous year, although its contribution to overall performance remains limited [8] Stock Market Performance - Jinbo Bio's stock price experienced significant volatility, peaking at 577.50 yuan per share on May 21, with a market capitalization exceeding 50 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 180% increase for the year [9] - However, by October 31, the stock price had fallen to 251.28 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 28.91 billion yuan, representing a decline of over 20 billion yuan from its peak [10] Strategic Adjustments - Jinbo Bio possesses a strong advantage in raw materials and technology, particularly with its recombinant human collagen technology, which has been validated through regulatory approvals [14] - The company has historically focused on B2B pharmaceutical and medical device development, neglecting brand building and channel expansion in the consumer market [15] - Recently, Jinbo Bio has begun to pivot towards the consumer market, with initiatives including collaborations with key opinion leaders and participation in e-commerce platforms, indicating a strategic shift to enhance brand recognition and market presence [15]

Core Viewpoint - The commercialization of Jinbo Biotechnology (832982.BJ) remains a significant issue as the company faces industry-wide challenges, with growth rates slowing down despite maintaining revenue and profit increases [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinbo Biotechnology achieved revenue of 1.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 568 million yuan, up 9.29% [1]. - The company's revenue growth has significantly slowed compared to previous years, with the first quarter of 2025 showing growth rates above 60%, while the second quarter saw a drop to 30.44% for revenue and 7.36% for net profit [3]. - By the third quarter, revenue growth was only 13.36%, and the net profit decreased by 16.72%, indicating a decline in cash flow as well [3]. Market Dynamics - The collagen protein industry is experiencing a collective slowdown, with major players like Jinbo and Juzhi Biotechnology facing similar issues of declining growth rates and shrinking profit margins [1]. - Jinbo's stock price has also shown significant volatility, peaking at 577.50 yuan per share in May, with a market cap exceeding 50 billion yuan, but later dropping to 251.28 yuan per share by October, resulting in a market cap decline of over 20 billion yuan [4][6]. Strategic Adjustments - Jinbo Biotechnology has a strong technical advantage in the collagen protein sector, particularly with its unique recombinant human collagen products, but has lagged behind competitors like Juzhi in revenue and brand recognition [8][9]. - The company has historically focused on B2B sales in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, neglecting consumer market branding and channel development [9]. - In response to market dynamics, Jinbo has begun to pivot towards the consumer market, engaging in collaborations with influencers and launching brand campaigns to enhance its market presence [10].

Core Viewpoint - The commercialization of Jinbo Biotechnology (832982.BJ) remains a significant issue as the company faces industry-wide challenges, with growth rates slowing down despite maintaining revenue and profit increases [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 568 million yuan, up 9.29% [2]. - The company's revenue growth has significantly slowed compared to previous years, with the first half of 2024 showing the lowest growth rates in nearly five years [3]. - In Q3 2024, revenue grew by 13.36%, but the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 16.72%, and net cash flow fell by 8.05% year-on-year [3]. Product Performance - The performance of the company's flagship product, Wei Yimei, which is the only approved Class III recombinant collagen injection in China, is declining, contributing 645 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, a growth rate drop of over 70 percentage points [4]. - Conversely, the functional skincare product segment is emerging, generating 121 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 152.39%, although its contribution to overall performance remains limited due to its smaller scale [4]. Market Dynamics - The company's stock price has experienced significant volatility, peaking at 577.50 yuan per share with a market cap exceeding 50 billion yuan, but later falling to 251.28 yuan per share and a market cap of 28.91 billion yuan, reflecting market re-evaluation of its growth logic [6][5]. - The industry is witnessing a collective slowdown, with competitors like Huaxi Biotechnology and Juzi Biotechnology also facing challenges, indicating a broader adjustment phase in the collagen market [2]. Strategic Adjustments - Jinbo Biotechnology possesses significant advantages in raw materials and technology, particularly with its recombinant human collagen technology, which has been validated through regulatory approvals [7]. - The company has historically focused on B2B pharmaceutical and medical device development, neglecting brand building and channel expansion in the consumer market [8]. - Recently, the company has begun to shift its strategy towards the consumer market, with initiatives such as collaborating with key opinion leaders and launching brand promotional campaigns [9]. - The ability to balance capital expectations with industry realities while establishing a consumer brand matrix will be crucial for the company's future growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - Jinbo Bio's revenue and net profit growth have slowed down following the challenge to its exclusive status in the "medical device three certificates" market, with the company reporting a significant decline in net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jinbo Bio reported revenue of 1.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%, and a net profit of 568 million yuan, up 9.29% year-on-year [2]. - In the third quarter of 2025, revenue was 437 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.36%, while net profit decreased by 16.24% to 176 million yuan, marking the first quarterly net profit decline since the company's listing [2]. - The company's stock price fell by 7.07% to 245.5 yuan per share as of October 30, 2025, nearly a 50% drop since May of the same year [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - Wei Yimei, a key product of Jinbo Bio, has consistently contributed over 80% to the company's revenue, with its core component being recombinant humanized collagen, which is a Class III medical device approved by the National Medical Products Administration [3]. - Jinbo Bio held three "medical device three certificates" for recombinant collagen products, which have been crucial for its high growth, with revenue increasing from 102 million yuan in the first half of 2021 to 859 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 69.9% [3]. - The exclusive market position of Jinbo Bio has been challenged by the recent approval of a "medical device three certificate" for a competing product from Juzi Bio, marking the entry of additional players into the recombinant collagen market [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - Other leading medical aesthetic companies are also applying for "medical device three certificates" in the recombinant collagen sector, including Chuangjian Medical and Huaxi Bio, indicating increasing competition [4]. - Jinbo Bio's management stated that the company still possesses three certificates as technical support and maintains advantages in technology accumulation and product matrix in the recombinant collagen implant market [4]. Business Segmentation - Jinbo Bio's revenue growth is attributed to both medical devices and functional skincare products, with the latter seeing a significant increase of 152% in revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The contribution of medical devices to Jinbo Bio's revenue decreased from 88% in the first half of 2024 to 82.5% in the first half of 2025, while the share of functional skincare products rose from 8% to 14% [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in Japan and China [3][4]. - It identifies eight key sectors that are capitalizing on changing consumer behaviors and preferences, presenting significant business opportunities [5]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a dramatic revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][8]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has surged. Brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are witnessing strong sales in pet food and healthcare products [12][13][15]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China as well [16][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased sales of sugar-free beverages and functional drinks in both Japan and China [20][21]. Group 2: Emerging Consumer Trends - **Beauty Economy**: Despite economic constraints, spending on beauty products like collagen supplements remains high, with brands like Wei Yi Mei achieving significant market valuations [23][24][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, such as Snow Peak in Japan, are thriving as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic challenges [29][31]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands like Labubu and Rio are tapping into consumers' emotional needs, providing affordable luxuries that enhance well-being [34][35][36]. - **Lazy Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is rising as younger generations prioritize time-saving solutions [40][42][44]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The article suggests that businesses should focus on understanding consumer needs and adapting to market changes rather than relying solely on data-driven decisions. This approach is exemplified by successful Japanese brands that emphasize real consumer interactions and product quality [51][53][55].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the first injectable recombinant collagen product by the company marks a significant milestone in its product matrix, which now includes aesthetic injection products, post-surgery repair dressings, and functional skincare [1] Group 1: Product Approval and Market Potential - The newly approved recombinant type I α1 collagen lyophilized fiber is intended for facial dermal tissue filling to correct dynamic wrinkles, including frown lines, forehead lines, and crow's feet [1] - The Chinese aesthetic injection market is projected to reach CNY 147 billion by 2027, with the injectable collagen segment expected to grow to CNY 16.8 billion, indicating high growth potential [2] - Currently, there are four approved facial injectable recombinant collagen products in China, including the company's product and others from Jinbo Biotech [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Channel Advantages - The company's product competes with Jinbo Biotech's offerings, which also target the dermal layer for wrinkle filling, suggesting future competition in eye and facial anti-aging scenarios [2] - The company has a strong channel advantage through its established brand recognition and deep distribution network in the aesthetic market, which is expected to enhance the market potential of the new injectable products [2] Group 3: Future Product Pipeline - The company has two additional injectable collagen products in the approval stage, with expected approval timelines in December 2024 and August 2025, which will further enrich its aesthetic product matrix [3] - These upcoming products will cover a range of anti-aging scenarios from dynamic wrinkle improvement to overall skin texture enhancement [3] Group 4: Financial Outlook and Ratings - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 58.35, despite a projected decline in online sales for its brand, which may affect overall revenue growth [4] - The company's revenue growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 12%, with a long-term CAGR for its brand's revenue growth revised from 26% to 14.5% [4]