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国防军工行业投资策略周报:持续深化国防和军队改革,看好板块高质量发展趋势
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 09:02
Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 持续深化国防和军队改革,看好板块高质量发展趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 持续深化国防和军队改革,看好板块中长期高质量发展趋势。8 月 8 日,据新华社,国资委、发改委联合印发《关于规范中央企业采购管 理工作的指导意见》,提出要建立健全中央企业采购管理体系,全面 推动中央企业采购管理规范化、精益化、协同化、智慧化发展。8 月 9 日,据人民日报,张又侠发表署名文章《持续深化国防和军队改革(学 习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神)》,强调要改进武器装备采购制度, 建立军品设计回报机制,构建武器装备现代化管理体系。 ⚫ 商业航天、大飞机、低空经济进展加速,看好新域新质作为第二增长 极提高并延长板块增长中枢。商业航天方面,据我们的太空公众号, 8 月 6 日我国成功发射千帆极轨 01 组卫星。大飞机方面,据"大飞 机"公众号,8 月 5 日东航 C919 开始执飞"京陕快线"。低空经济方 面,8 月 5 日,据央广网,目前重庆已签约低空领域项目 22 个,协议 投资 240 亿元人民币,目标打造"引领全国的低空消费首创之城"。 8 月 8 日,据上海 ...
公用事业行业深度跟踪:新型电力系统促进消纳,火电三重期待或再共振
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 09:02
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 新型电力系统促进消纳,火电三重期待或再共振 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 关注:中广核电力+华电国际电力股份+浙能电力+申能股份+华润电力+ 广州发展+长江电力+福能股份 ⚫ 九大行动构建新型电力系统,重视调节电源价值+电网建设+绿电消纳。 近期三部门印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案(2024—2027 年)》, 通过开展九大行动提升电网对清洁能源的接纳、配置和调控能力。我们 建议仍围绕调节电源价值、电网建设、绿电经济性三大电改方向理解行 动思路。(1)调节电源方面:发挥煤电的电力供应保障作用、建设共享 储能电站、探索新型储能技术,促进绿电消纳;(2)电网建设方面:提 升电网稳定性、高质量发展配电网、加强智慧化调度体系建设,并且提 升用户绿电需求侧协同能力;(3)绿电经济性方面:旨在提升消纳率, 上周政策聚焦绿电环境价值。近期电改逐步加速,我们认为三方面政策 大概率齐头并进,我们建议更多关注辅助服务电价和煤电联动等政策逐 步落地和推广,促进火电盈利稳定。 ⚫ 进口煤价持续回落,火电 ...
银行投资观察:拥挤的人民币套利即将终结
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 05:31
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | | [Table_Title] 银行行业 | [Table_Gr a ...
拉卡拉:提费增厚毛利,延续高位派息
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 04:31
[Table_Title] 拉卡拉(300773.SZ) 提费增厚毛利,延续高位派息 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报。24 年半年度公司实现营收 29.8 亿元, yoy+0.45%,归母净利 4.2 亿元,yoy-18.0%,主要受去年同期投资收 益较高的因素影响。扣非的归母净利润 4.1 亿元,yoy+45.9%。扣非净 利润维持增长主要受益于(1)支付交易量保持在较高水平,形成规模 效应,上半年公司支付交易金额达 2.15 万亿元,较高的交易规模使得 公司在收入和经营成本上更具优势,为实现较好的效益奠定坚实基础。 (2)扫码支付增长较快,扫码交易金额占比提高。上半年公司实现扫 码交易金额 6,738 亿元,同比增长 28%,扫码金额占整体比重自去年 同期 23%提升至 31%。(3)毛利率和净费率水平有所提升。上半年, 公司支付整体净费率水平同比提高了 1 个基点,数字支付业务毛利率 30.20%同比提升 2.7 个百分点。 ⚫ 支付业务整体较为稳健。24H1 公司银行卡交易金额为 1.48 万亿元, 受行业整体下行影响,同比减少 15%,但降幅低于行业水平 ...
东方财富:自营业务高增稳定业绩,佣金费率阶段性承压
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 03:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.26 CNY per share, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2024 [5][40]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.945 billion CNY for H1 2024, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.056 billion CNY, down 4% year-on-year [10][40]. - The company's self-operated business showed significant growth, with self-operated income increasing by 48% year-on-year to 1.283 billion CNY, driven by a shift towards bonds and financial products [31][40]. - The brokerage business continues to gain market share, with a market share of 4.56% in stock trading, up 0.14 percentage points from H1 2023, despite a decline in trading volume [16][40]. - The company is enhancing its research and development capabilities, particularly in AI, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [38][40]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.945 billion CNY, down 14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.056 billion CNY, down 4% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 2.489 billion CNY, a 15.4% decline year-on-year, but a 1.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [10][12]. Brokerage Business - The average daily market turnover in H1 2024 was 863 billion CNY, down 9.2% year-on-year. The company's stock trading volume was 9.21 trillion CNY, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with a brokerage income of 1.852 billion CNY, down 2.7% [16][18]. Fund Distribution - The company reported fund sales of 8.514 trillion CNY in H1 2024, an increase of 4% year-on-year, with non-money market fund sales slightly declining by 1% [20][21]. Margin Financing - The margin financing balance decreased by 7% year-on-year, with net interest income from margin financing at 1.12 billion CNY, down 5.8% year-on-year [26][40]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated income reached 1.283 billion CNY in H1 2024, up 48% year-on-year, with financial investment assets totaling 101.45 billion CNY, a 25% increase year-on-year [31][40]. R&D and AI Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its R&D capabilities, particularly in AI, with R&D expenses of 556 million CNY in H1 2024, representing 11.2% of total revenue, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous year [38][40].
建筑行业周报:民爆行业并购、矿服一体化节奏提速,继续关注基建资金及实物工作量情况
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 03:34
[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|建筑装饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑行业周报 民爆行业并购、矿服一体化节奏提速,继续关注 基建资金及实物工作量情况 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 民爆行业并购、矿服一体化节奏提速,头部公司市占率有望逐渐提升。 根据《"十四五"民用爆炸物品行业安全发展规划》,行业整合的目标 是将生产企业数量减少至 50 家以内,且前十家企业的行业生产总值占 比超过 60%。根据中国爆破器材行业协会统计,产量看,24H1,全国 工业炸药/工业雷管产量下降。产值看,各地区呈现显著分化态势,其 中内蒙古、四川分别为 10.17%/ 10.28%,占比最高;青海、西藏增速 最快,增速达 53.94%/ 101.67%。整体来看,民爆行业在整合与区域 增长中展现出发展的双重特征,头部企业的产能优势和部分地区的快 速增长共同推动了行业的积极态势。此外,2023 年,中国能建民爆矿 服子公司易普力等头部企业展现出高产能利用率,其中易普力工业炸 药产能利用率达到 89.97%,电子雷管产能利用率为 79.36%。 ⚫ 资金追踪:专项债发行周同比增长,城投债发行周同比 ...
中国船舶:从追赶到领军,20年深度回首
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 03:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) with a target price of 47.0 yuan per share, based on a 4x PB valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - CSIC has transitioned from a follower to a leader in the global shipbuilding industry, benefiting from favorable conditions during the 2003-2008 upcycle, internal improvements during the 2009-2020 downcycle, and a resurgence in the 2021-2024 upcycle [1] - The current upcycle is more sustainable and certain than the previous one, driven by aging and environmental regulations, constrained supply, and improved profitability [1] - CSIC is expected to benefit from both profitability and restructuring, with low-cost ship deliveries nearing completion and a potential increase in efficiency and scale post-asset integration [1] Historical Performance and Industry Cycles - During the 2003-2008 upcycle, CSIC capitalized on China's WTO accession, low steel prices, and labor cost advantages to expand its global market share [1][10] - The 2009-2020 downcycle saw CSIC focus on R&D, diversify its order structure, and maintain stable per capita output despite industry challenges [1][12] - The current upcycle, starting in 2021, is marked by a resurgence in container ship orders and a supply-demand imbalance, with CSIC leading the recovery [1][40] Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle is driven by aging and environmental regulations, with demand expected to be more sustained compared to the previous cycle, which was driven by trade growth [1][46] - Supply constraints are more pronounced in the current cycle, with limited capacity expansion and a concentration of market share among leading shipyards [1][51] - CSIC's market share has risen significantly, supported by lower costs, improved delivery capabilities, and enhanced competitiveness in high-end ship types [1][55] Profitability and Valuation - CSIC's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with gross margins for new orders nearing historical highs due to rising ship prices and falling steel prices [1][58] - The report forecasts CSIC's net profit to reach 5.16 billion yuan in 2024, 7.66 billion yuan in 2025, and 10.68 billion yuan in 2026, driven by higher ship prices and improved efficiency [1][71] - A 4x PB valuation is applied, reflecting CSIC's historical valuation range and the current recovery phase, with a target price of 47.0 yuan per share [1][74] Future Outlook - CSIC is expected to benefit from the delivery of high-value ships and the integration of group assets, which will enhance efficiency and profitability [1][62] - The shipbuilding industry is entering a new phase of sustained profitability, with CSIC well-positioned to capitalize on the upcycle and lead the global market [1][71]
互联网传媒行业投资策略周报:《黑神话:悟空》即将上线,关注游戏新品供给
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 03:32
Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 《黑神话:悟空》即将上线,关注游戏新品供给 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 本周(8月5日-8月9日)中信传媒板块下跌0.88%,跑赢上证综指0.60 个百分点。本周(8月5日-8月9日)A股传媒板块行情有所回调,但从 细分板块来看,游戏、影视、教育板块部分个股有一定反弹,主要由 于受8月3日国务院印发的《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》的 持续影响,网络游戏、影视、教培等改善型消费内容被列入政策扶持 范围;另一方面,重点产品《黑神话:悟空》即将发售,游戏市场供 给端发力,对市场信心有一定提振。 ⚫ 互联网:二季度预览来看,整体宏观承压,广告和消费相关业态受去 年高基数影响有压力,腾讯控股、哔哩哔哩和快手广告受流量和效率 驱动业绩较有韧性。 ⚫ 游戏:本周游戏板块有所反弹。展望来看,根据IT之家,行业重点产 品《黑神话:悟空》8月8日发布上线前的最后一支预告片,该游戏即 将于8月20日上线,有望提振国内市场对3A游戏信心,建议关注产品 销量情况。 ⚫ AI:OpenAI管理层变动,关注海外头部模 ...
香港与海外市场晨讯
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 02:57
专业、专心、专为您 指数概览 2024年8月12日 资讯服务类投资顾问团队 联系人:古欣怡 电话:020-66995384 香港市场 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|----------|-----------------| | | 收市价 | 涨跌 | | 恒生指数 | 17090.23 | 198.40(1.17%) | | 中企指数 | 3554.56 | 31.38(0.89%) | | 国企指数 | 6017.85 | 76.38(1.29%) | | AH 股溢价指数 | 147.65 | -1.03(-0.69%) | | | 海外市场 | | | 道琼斯 | 38497.54 | 51.05(0.13%) | | 纳斯达克 | 16745.30 | 85.28(0.51%) | | 标准普尔 | 5344.16 | 24.85(0.47%) | | 伦敦富时 | 8168.10 | 23.13(0.28%) | | 法兰克福 DAX | 17722.88 | 42.48(0.24%) | | 巴黎 CAC | 7269.71 | 22.26(0.31% ...
农林牧渔行业投资策略周报:本周猪价再创新高,母猪产能恢复偏缓
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-12 01:33
[TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 本周猪价再创新高,母猪产能恢复偏缓 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点: 畜禽养殖:据搜猪网,8月9日,全国瘦肉型生猪出栏均价20.87元/公斤, 环比上周上涨5.14%,同比上涨21.83%。前期产能去化效应显现,本周 猪价再创新高,估算自繁自养利润接近600元/头。据饲料工业协会数据, 上半年猪饲料产量同比下滑7.3%,其中仔猪料同比下降13.5%。仔猪料 或侧面反映新生仔猪数量下滑较明显,按6个月生猪生长期推算,下半 年供给收缩或继续延续。近期原材料价格震荡下行,利好养殖成本下降, 生猪企业有望充分受益猪价上行与成本下行之间"剪刀差"扩大,整体 盈利水平有望超出市场预期。当前行业资产负债率整体处于高位,预计 后续产能恢复速度或较为缓慢,据Mysteel数据,7月能繁母猪存栏量环 比增长约1.1%。当前板块估值再次回落至相对低位,大型养殖企业重 点推荐温氏股份、牧原股份,关注新希望,中小养殖企业建议关注唐人 神、天康生物、华统股份以及川渝生猪龙头企业。白羽鸡方面,伴随消 费旺季逐步到来,据Wind,本周商品代鸡苗和毛鸡价格继续反弹,分别 环比上涨0.6%、0 ...