[Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 券商股权整合更进一步，建议关注行业估值修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 8 月 21 日晚，（1）国信证券发布停牌公告，拟以发行 A 股股份的方 式购买万和证券控制权（万和证券第一大股东为深圳市资本运营集团 有限公司，控股 53.0892%），公司预计在不超过 10 个交易日的时间 内披露本次交易方案；（2）天风证券公告拟向控股股东湖北宏泰集团 定增不超过 40 亿元；（3）东莞控股公告与东莞金控组成联合体以 22.72 亿元联合受让东莞证券 20%股权，估值约 1.25xPB。 ⚫ 国信证券并购万和证券有助于深化股东及区域赋能，提升自身资产及 业务规模。据 2023 年年报，万和证券共有 8 位股东，前 6 位股东均 是深圳国资委实控，合计控股 95.33%，股权结构简单。万和证券 2023 年营收 5 亿元、归母净利润 0.59 亿元，净资产 54.47 亿元，2023 年 净资产/净利润分别排名证券行业第 84 名/第 99 名。考虑国信证券前 三个月 PB 均值约为 1.05x，若以发行股份形式全资购买万和股权， 估值对价适中。国信证券作为 ...

[Table_Title] 游戏行业 三轮底部行情回顾与启示：业绩铸就反弹基础，新趋势催生估值空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 游戏板块处于估值底部，行业收入具备长期增长潜力。申万游戏板块 目前点位已经接近 2022 年 10 月的行业底部位置，头部公司一致预期 下的 PE 估值也处于 2018 年以来历史较低水平。我们认为底部的估值 反映了市场对 A 股游戏行业长期增长的悲观预期。而我们对全球游戏 行业历史收入的复盘显示，即使不考虑移动端渗透率大幅提升带动的 玩家数量提升，以 PC 及主机为代表的核心游戏市场仍然保持了长期 的增长趋势，市场无需对行业的长期增长过度担忧。 ⚫ 回顾 2018 年以来游戏板块三轮筑底及反弹过程，我们认为板块的反 弹有两条主线，一条是技术层面推动行业外延的扩张，使得板块估值 提升，提供了上涨的推动力，包括 19 年"云游戏"、21 年"元宇宙" 以及 23 年"生成式 AI"。技术进步推动游戏市场空间进一步打开，提 升板块估值，推动了行业底部的反弹。第二条主线则是业绩的兑现度， 业绩的兑现影响了行业反弹的持续性与高度。例如 2019 及 2023 年， 板块业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both Hong Kong and US stocks [2]. Core Views - The company reported a slight profit exceeding expectations, with a continuous optimization of its customer structure [2]. - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.69 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 5.03 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [3]. - The company completed a business volume of 15.623 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.73 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 2.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.81 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [3]. - The adjusted profit per ticket increased slightly by 0.7% to 0.33 RMB, while the core revenue per ticket remained stable at 1.24 RMB, despite a 12% decline in the industry average [4]. Strategic Insights - The company is actively exploring a new balance between market share and profit margin amidst ongoing price competition in the industry [4]. - The revenue from direct customer business grew by 26.2% year-on-year, indicating a focus on high-quality development strategies [4]. - The company announced a dividend of 0.35 USD per share, highlighting its commitment to synchronizing dividends with growth [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.73 RMB, 14.89 RMB, and 17.42 RMB, respectively [5]. - The company is assigned a 15x price-to-earnings (PE) valuation for 2024, leading to a target price of 208.57 HKD per share and 26.73 USD per share for Hong Kong and US stocks, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 110.60 CNY per share, reflecting a reasonable PE of 30 times for 2024 [4][13]. Core Insights - The company continues to demonstrate high growth, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024. Revenue reached 11.69 billion CNY, up 34.0% year-on-year, while net profit was 840 million CNY, up 38.1% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company has made substantial progress in international markets, particularly in Europe and India, with expectations for significant contributions to performance starting in 2026 [2][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of the company's gross margin, which improved in Q2 2024, driven by factors such as low-cost inventory procurement and scale effects [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary 2024 H1 Financial Data - Revenue: 11.69 billion CNY, up 34.0% YoY - Net Profit: 840 million CNY, up 38.1% YoY - Non-recurring Net Profit: 790 million CNY, up 49.7% YoY [7][10]. 2024 Q2 Financial Data - Revenue: 6.04 billion CNY, up 27.5% YoY - Net Profit: 450 million CNY, up 64.0% YoY - Non-recurring Net Profit: 420 million CNY, up 77.3% YoY [8][10]. Margin Analysis - Q1 2024 Gross Margin: 19.3% - Q2 2024 Gross Margin: 21.3%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points [2][10]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.046 billion CNY, 2.651 billion CNY, and 3.759 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong order backlog and successful business expansion, which are expected to drive future growth [13][14].

[Table_Title] 晶盛机电（300316.SZ） 业绩低于预期，材料业务盈利能力回落 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 业绩低于预期，主要系材料毛利率下滑影响。公司发布 2024 年中报， 24H1 公司实现收入 101.5 亿元，同比+20.7%；归母净利润 20.96 亿 元，同比-4.97%；扣非归母净利润 20.94 亿元，同比+1.02%。单 Q2 来看，收入实现 56.4 亿元，同比+17.3%；归母净利润 10.3 亿元，同 比-22.2%；扣非归母净利润 9.92 亿元，同比-17.2%。Q2 整体毛利率 31.8%，行业贝塔的下行已开始从订单传导至业绩。 ⚫ 坩埚价格显著回落，净利率下降至 42%。业绩低于预期主要系材料毛 利率快速下降，24H1 材料毛利率 40.15%，同比下降 14.5pct。根据公 司中报，上半年宁夏鑫晶收入 16.6 亿元，同比+22.1%，净利润 6.9 亿 元，同比+1.5%。由于石英砂供需紧张的格局解除，当前坩埚价格已显 著回落，坩埚净利率 42%，同比下滑 8pct，但仍维持在相对较高水平。 ⚫ 设备毛利率稳中略降，合同负债开始下降。 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 绿色转型聚焦价格机制，重视固废中报业绩趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 建议关注：（1）固废：瀚蓝环境、光大环境、海螺创业、三峰环境； （2）水务：北控水务集团、洪城环境等；（3）设备类：景津装备、聚 光科技、美埃科技等；（4）再生资源：赛恩斯、朗坤环境等。 ⚫ 加快绿色转型，其中垃圾焚烧、水务价格机制理顺为重点。本周中共中 央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》，提出 2030 年 15 万节能环保产业规模的目标。本次政策涉及细分行业、建 设方向等内容众多，其中"完善绿色转型价格政策"是我们认为的环保 政策要点：（1）固废，推动生活垃圾收费方式改革（历史垃圾收费比例 低、征收困难。可参考深圳，通过附加水价征收的方式征收）；（2）水 务，完善居民阶梯水价等。水务、固废板块历史回款依旧可控，未来价 格机制的理顺下回款保障度进一步提高，重点关注历史回款健康，具 备分红提高的固废、水务公司。 ⚫ 重视中报业绩兑现：固废公司回款、涨价亮点频出。本周已有部分公司 发布中报业绩，其中 ...

Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|商贸零售 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 批零社服行业 7 月社零同增 2.7%，必选表现优于可选 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 2024 年 7 月社零同比增长 2.7%。据国家统计局，2024 年 7 月我国社 零总额 3.78 万亿元/YOY+2.7%，增速较 6 月提升 0.7pct。其中，除汽 车以外的消费品零售总额 3.40 万亿元/YOY+3.6%。分地区看，乡村社 零增速高于城镇，7 月城镇社零总额 3.27 万亿元/YOY+2.4%，乡村社 零总额 0.51 万亿元/YOY+4.6%。分类型看，7 月商品零售 3.34 万亿 元/YOY+2.7%，餐饮收入 0.44 万亿元/YOY+3.0%，增速较 6 月分别 增长 1.2pct、下滑 2.4pct。 ⚫ 分品类看，可选消费品有所承压。粮油食品/饮料零售额 7 月同比增速 分别为+9.9%（增速环降 0.9pct）、+6.1%（增速环升 4.4pct），烟酒零 售额 7 月同比增速-0.1%（增速环降 5.3pct）。可选消费品中，化妆品 和金银珠宝零售额 7 月同比 ...

[Table_Title] 九丰能源（605090.SH） 能服+特气加速成长，稳定分红兼顾成长 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 优化船舶非经常性收益增加，24H1 业绩同比+55.2%。2024 年上半年 实现营业收入 112.67 亿元（同比+2.0%），归母净利润 11.06 亿元（同 比+55.2%），其中 Q1 同比+6.3%、Q2 同比+139.9%。营收方面，清 洁能源业务收入稳定，能服和特种气体业务增长趋势良好，贡献营收增 量。归母净利同比增加 3.93 亿元，主要系二季度处置 1 艘 LNG 运输 船，获利 3.36 亿元计入非经常性收益，上半年扣非归母净利润 7.88 亿 元（同比+1.8%）。24H1 实现经营性现金流 12.20 亿元（同比+72.0%）。 ⚫ 能服+特气加速成长、三大业务稳步向前。清洁能源业务稳中求升，上 半年公司 LNG、LPG 业务销气量提升，海气+陆气"双气源保障下，顺 价能力稳定。能源服务业务 24H1 营收同比+132%，毛利率提升至 26%（23 年约 21%），能源作业聚焦辅助排采和回收，24H1 回收处理 作业量约 18 万吨；能源物流 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Recent market dynamics show a slight decline in domestic thermal coal prices, while international high-calorie coal prices remain strong. The dual coke prices continue to show weakness. As of August 16, the CCI 5500 kcal coal price is reported at 842 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week. The annual long-term contract price for 5500 kcal coal at ports is 699 RMB/ton, down 1 RMB/ton [2][9][36] - The mid-term support for coal prices is expected to come from several factors: (1) no significant positive growth in domestic supply; (2) clear support from seasonal demand in the second half of the year; (3) recent inventory levels are decreasing compared to last year [2][38] Market Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with prices in major production areas also decreasing. For instance, Shanxi region prices fell by 6 RMB/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi decreased by 4-10 RMB/ton and 5 RMB/ton, respectively [9][22] - Internationally, the FOB price for 5500 kcal thermal coal from Newcastle, Australia is reported at 87.25 USD/ton, down 0.3% from the previous week [9] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate as of August 14 is 86.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. Coal inventory at 100 sample coal mines is 314,000 tons, up 0.4% week-on-week [13][21] Industry Perspective - The coal industry index has increased by 2.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.5 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.8%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.3 percentage points [35] - The report highlights that while thermal coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, they are supported by seasonal demand and low inventory levels. The overall expectation is for coal prices to improve as inventory pressures ease and macroeconomic expectations become more favorable [2][38] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. China Shenhua (A, H) and Shaanxi Coal & Chemical Industry for stable dividends 2. China Coal Energy (A, H) and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (A, H) for low valuations and long-term growth potential 3. Pingmei Shenma Energy, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others for mid-term benefits from demand recovery and production restoration [3]

回购微量操作，长债利率波 动加大 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 春江水已暖 ——银行投资观察 20240818 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块表现方面：本期（2024/8/12-2024/8/16），Wind 全 A 下跌 0.05%， 银行板块整体（中信一级行业）上涨 2.7%，排在所有行业第 1 位，跑 赢万得全A。国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行变动幅度分别为 4.30%、 2.32%、1.51%、1.81%。恒生综合指数上涨 1.6%，H 股银行涨幅 3.7%， 跑赢恒生综合指数，跑赢 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：Wind 数据显示 A 股银行普遍上涨，涨幅靠前为交通银 行上涨 5.60%、邮储银行上涨 4.86%。H 股银行涨幅靠前为交通银行 上涨 6.70%、工商银行上涨 5.24%，跌幅前三为渤海银行下跌 2.17%、 江西银行下跌 1.64%、郑州银行下跌 1.33%。 北向资金方面：Wind 数据显示银行业北向资金持股占比为 2.32%，较 上期末增持 2.8bp，板块获增最高为瑞丰银行。 银行转债方面：Win ...