Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Software International (00354 HK) with a target price of HKD 5 31 [1] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of RMB 7 926 billion (YoY -6 2%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 286 million (YoY -18 6%) due to reduced demand from core clients [1][2] - Gross margin decreased by 0 6 percentage points YoY to 23 1% while sales expenses increased by 1 2% to RMB 426 million [1][2] - Cloud and intelligent business revenue grew by 2 0% YoY to RMB 3 368 billion accounting for 42 5% of total revenue [1][2] - The company is advancing its "1+3" strategic layout focusing on cloud intelligence AIGC HarmonyOS and AIoT applications and enterprise digital transformation services [1][3] - In AIGC the company is developing model factory services and collaborating with leading clients in finance energy and healthcare sectors [3] - In the HarmonyOS ecosystem the company is building an independent IoT platform and expanding into industries like military energy and transportation [3] - The company is strengthening its position in the ERP market targeting state-owned enterprises and leveraging Huawei Cloud partnerships [4][5] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2024 but recover with steady growth in 2025-2026 [1][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 676 million in 2024 and RMB 759 million in 2025 [1][5] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2025 is estimated at 13 5x and 12 0x respectively [5] Business Segments - Core business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 4 558 billion (YoY -11 5%) while cloud and intelligent business revenue reached RMB 3 368 billion (YoY +2 0%) [2][5] - The top five clients contributed 60 0% of total service revenue and the top ten clients contributed 68 8% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening its collaboration with Huawei becoming a comprehensive partner in Huawei Cloud and leading in capability certifications [5] - It is expanding internationally with R&D and delivery centers in Thailand Japan Singapore Saudi Arabia and the UAE [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mingyuan Cloud with a target price of HKD 2.65 per share [1] Core Views - Mingyuan Cloud's 24H1 revenue decreased by 5.5% YoY to RMB 720 million, with a net loss of RMB 115 million and an adjusted net loss of RMB 17 million [1][2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points YoY to 80.2% [2] - Cloud services revenue declined by 3.6% YoY to RMB 610 million, accounting for 88.5% of total revenue [1][2] - The company has a strong cash position with RMB 4.36 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and no bank financing [2] Business Segments Cloud Services - Customer Relationship Management (CRM) revenue decreased by 6.0% YoY to RMB 440 million, with a 9.1% decline in the number of sales offices [2] - Project Construction revenue increased by 4.9% YoY to RMB 60 million, driven by higher ARPU [3] - Asset Management & Operations revenue grew by 30.5% YoY to RMB 46 million, with a customer retention rate of 94% [3] - Tianji PaaS platform revenue decreased by 12.0% YoY to RMB 62 million, but the platform has been fully adapted for domestic use and integrated with AI capabilities [4] ERP Solutions - Localized deployment software and services revenue declined by 15.1% YoY to RMB 108 million, reflecting cautious IT spending by private residential developers [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on deepening relationships with high-quality state-owned enterprise (SOE) clients and leveraging AI to upgrade products [5] - Mingyuan Cloud is expanding internationally, with initial breakthroughs in Southeast Asia and plans to establish local teams in Malaysia and Hong Kong [5] - The company is implementing cost-saving measures and improving operational efficiency [5] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 1.59 billion, RMB 1.593 billion, and RMB 1.629 billion, respectively [6] - Adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024 and continue to improve in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to increase as SaaS revenue grows, with further optimization of expense ratios [6] Valuation - The report values Mingyuan Cloud at 3x PS for 2024, based on comparable SaaS companies such as Adobe, Salesforce, Kingdee, and Glodon [6] - The target price of HKD 2.65 per share reflects the company's improving business structure and strong cash position [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.0%, PPOP growth of 22.8%, and net profit growth of 19.6% for the first half of 2024, with performance driven by scale growth, non-interest income, and a decrease in the cost-to-income ratio [2]. - The net interest margin for the first half of 2024 was 2.79%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous quarter, primarily due to a decline in the yield on interest-earning assets [2]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 52.9%, largely driven by investment gains from trading clients, which rose by 95.96% year-on-year [2]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 35.18%, down 5.85 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in employee expenses [2]. Performance Metrics - The company’s loan growth rate was 11.3% year-on-year, showing a decline compared to previous periods, with retail loan growth being particularly weak [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of the end of Q2 2024, while the overdue loan ratio increased to 1.54%, up 32 basis points from the previous year [2]. - The provision coverage ratio was 538.81%, slightly down from the previous quarter, indicating a solid overall asset quality and risk absorption capacity [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profit growth rates of 17.36% and 13.36% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with EPS projected at 1.41 and 1.59 CNY per share [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 4.91X for 2024 and 4.33X for 2025, with a PB ratio of 0.68X for 2024 and 0.59X for 2025 [2]. - The report sets a reasonable value of 10.91 CNY per share for the company, suggesting a PB valuation of approximately 1.1X for 2024 [2].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Process - **Factor Name**: Order Size and Duration Factors **Construction Idea**: The factors are constructed by simultaneously analyzing the "size" and "duration" dimensions of stock orders, leveraging Level 2 tick data to identify patterns in large and long-duration orders that may indicate informed trading activity[6][21][22] **Construction Process**: 1. Define "large orders" and "long orders" as those exceeding the mean plus N standard deviations of order size or duration, respectively, based on Gaussian distribution assumptions[22][23] 2. Combine "buy order ID" and "sell order ID" attributes to analyze both buying and selling perspectives[21][22] 3. Construct 16 base factors by combining "large/small" and "long/short" dimensions for both buy and sell orders (e.g., BB_LB_BS_LS for "large buy, long buy, large sell, long sell")[21][22] 4. Apply three standard deviation thresholds (1.0, 1.5, 2.0) and five trading time windows (full day, first 15 minutes, first 30 minutes, last 30 minutes, last 15 minutes) to create 240 factors[23][24] **Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture independent dimensions of order size and duration, as evidenced by low correlation coefficients (-0.19 to 0.19) between size and duration factors[16][19][22] Factor Backtesting Results - **240 Factors**: Over 50 factors achieved RankIC averages above 8%, with 18 factors exceeding 10% during the 2021-2023 backtesting period[24][27][28] Selected Order Factor Portfolio Construction - **Portfolio Construction**: 1. Select top-K stocks based on factor values (e.g., Top-30, Top-50) 2. Buy at t+1 average price and sell at t+21 average price, with 20-day rebalancing and 0.3% transaction fees[56][98] **Evaluation**: The selected portfolios demonstrated strong performance across multiple market segments, achieving significant excess returns compared to benchmark indices[56][98][99] Portfolio Backtesting Results **All Market Segment** - RankIC average: 13.3%, win rate: 78.3% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 31.33%, max drawdown 15.39%, Sharpe ratio 1.86[56][60][98] **Entrepreneurial Board Segment** - RankIC average: 13.7%, win rate: 83.4% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 27.66%, max drawdown 25.45%, Sharpe ratio 1.30[61][65][98] **CSI 300 Segment** - RankIC average: 10.5%, win rate: 64.6% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 10.62%, max drawdown 12.24%, Sharpe ratio 0.70[67][69][98] **CSI 500 Segment** - RankIC average: 11.1%, win rate: 63.9% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 8.79%, max drawdown 14.56%, Sharpe ratio 0.45[72][74][98] **CSI 800 Segment** - RankIC average: 11.3%, win rate: 65.6% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 6.86%, max drawdown 13.96%, Sharpe ratio 0.34[77][78][98] **CSI 1000 Segment** - RankIC average: 10.7%, win rate: 67.4% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 15.39%, max drawdown 16.68%, Sharpe ratio 0.84[83][85][98] **CNI 2000 Segment** - RankIC average: 12.7%, win rate: 76.5% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 25.00%, max drawdown 17.50%, Sharpe ratio 1.44[90][95][98]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.81 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 18.31 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady revenue growth of 2.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 300 million CNY. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 27.47 million CNY, which is an 18.6% increase in losses compared to the previous year [1][9]. - The company's gross margin improved to 48.03%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the same period last year, attributed to enhanced product maturity and reduced project costs [1][9]. - The company is focusing on internal management improvements, leading to a decrease in expense ratios across sales, management, and R&D [1][10]. - Significant advancements have been made in specialized electronic medical records and disease prevention capabilities, particularly through collaborations with subsidiaries [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary 2024H1 Key Financial Data - Revenue: 300 million CNY, up 2.9% year-on-year - Net Profit: -27.47 million CNY, loss increased by 18.6% year-on-year - Gross Margin: 48.03%, up 2.51 percentage points year-on-year [5][9]. Expense Ratios - Sales Expenses: 49.25 million CNY, down 4.0% year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 16.4% - Management Expenses: 48.71 million CNY, down 6.2% year-on-year, with a management expense ratio of 16.2% - R&D Expenses: 76.17 million CNY, down 19.8% year-on-year, with a R&D expense ratio of 25.4% [6][10]. Profit Forecast - Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 72 million CNY, 103 million CNY, and 121 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.52 CNY, 0.75 CNY, and 0.88 CNY [1][14]. Revenue Breakdown - Self-developed software revenue is expected to grow at 12.0% in 2024, 13.0% in 2025, and 13.0% in 2026 - Software development and technical services are projected to grow at 15.0% in 2024, 17.0% in 2025, and 17.0% in 2026 - External software and hardware sales are expected to grow at 10.0% in 2024, 12.0% in 2025, and 12.0% in 2026 [14][19]. Valuation - The company is assigned a reasonable valuation multiple of 40 times PE for 2024, leading to a target price of 20.81 CNY per share, based on comparisons with similar companies in the industry [1][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report focuses on the changes in the Douyin channel for snacks, highlighting a shift from low-price strategies to prioritizing GMV growth. The snack sales on Douyin have transitioned to a "price increase model" in Q2 2024, with significant growth driven by product cards and an increase in the importance of shelf space [1][12][18] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points in July, with a mixed performance across sub-sectors. The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with PE and PB ratios at the 9th and 12th percentiles since 2010, respectively [1][2][7] - The report recommends leading companies with strong cash flow stability, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, and growth-oriented companies like Yanjing Beer and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2] Monthly Focus: Changes in Douyin Channel - Overview: The focus has shifted from low pricing to prioritizing shelf space. Douyin's GMV growth has slowed, leading to a strategic adjustment to prioritize GMV growth over price competitiveness. In Q2 2024, the snack sector's sales have shown a significant increase in average price [1][12][18] - Structure: There has been an increase in supply, with the CR3 market share rising from 3.6% in April 2023 to 6.7% in July 2024, indicating a growing concentration among leading brands [1][25] - Brand Performance: Three Squirrels and Salted Fish have shown strong performance, consistently outperforming the market. Their growth strategies focus on filling product gaps and expanding self-operated channels [1][29][31] Market Review - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market in July, with snacks and liquor experiencing declines while beverages and food processing saw gains. Northbound capital outflow from the sector amounted to 5.8 billion yuan in July [1][2][7] - Valuation metrics indicate that the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with PE and PB ratios at 9% and 12% percentiles since 2010, respectively [1][2][7] Fundamental Tracking - The report notes a recovery in the price of Moutai, while demand for mass-market products remains weak. The average price of Moutai has stabilized around 2,350-2,400 yuan per bottle as of late July [1][7][10] - The overall market for mass-market products has shown weak performance, with significant declines in production growth rates for beer, dairy, and beverages in July [1][7][10]

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 阿 里 巴 巴 FY25Q1 点评：云和 AI 驱动增长，多业务亏损收窄 盈利预测：（本文表中年份为财年） 证券研究报告 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 06/24 08/24 阿里巴巴 标普500 SFC CE No. AOB364 SW(09988.HK):FY24Q4 点 SW(09988.HK):FY24Q3 前 [Table_PageText] 阿里巴巴|季报点评 孟 鑫 ：资深分析师，重庆大学技术经济及管理硕士，曾任职于国盛证券、西南证券，2023 年加入广发证券发展研究中心。 买入： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 10%以上。 增持： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 5%-15%。 [Table_I 重要mportant 声明Notices] 本报告署名研究人员、联系人（以下均简称"研究人员"）针对本报告中相关公司或证券的研究分析内容，在此声明：（1）本报告的全部 分析结论、研究观点均精确反映研究人员于本 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 13.6 CNY per share based on a PE valuation of 18x for the estimated EPS of 0.76 CNY in 2024 [4][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a 36.7% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 230 million CNY in H1 2024, despite a 16.14% decrease in operating revenue to 2.638 billion CNY [1][2]. - The company's equity scale has expanded, with domestic equity reaching 25.77 billion CNY as of H1 2024, up from 21.25 billion CNY at the end of 2023, contributing to a total margin of 34.59 billion CNY, a 20% increase year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the acceleration of futures product updates and growth in financial futures trading volume, indicating a positive industry outlook [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.638 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.14% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million CNY, an increase of 36.7% [1]. - The adjusted net profit also saw a 41.9% increase, indicating strong underlying performance despite revenue challenges [1]. Business Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its equity scale, with domestic equity growing to 25.77 billion CNY and total margin reaching 34.59 billion CNY, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [1]. - The report notes the stability of overseas financial services, with a presence in major international cities, enhancing the company's global trading capabilities [1]. Market Trends - The report discusses the rapid update of futures products and an increase in trading volume for financial futures, suggesting a favorable market environment for the company's operations [1]. - The company is actively exploring innovative products in the OTC derivatives market, which could provide new risk management tools for the market [1].

证券研究报告 [公司评级 Table_Invest] 增持 当前价格 23.50 元 合理价值 30.01 元 前次评级 增持 报告日期 2024-08-19 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 图南股份（300855.SZ）:23 2024-04-26 年业绩稳增，看好航发及外 贸弹性 [Table_Title] 图南股份（300855.SZ） 24H1 业绩稳健增长，下游航发及民品需求景气可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司公告 24 年半年报，2024 年上半年公司实现营收 7.31 亿 元，同比增长 6.07%；实现归母净利润 1.91 亿元，同比增长 7.11%； 实现扣非归母净利润 1.92 亿元，同比增长 11.38%。 ⚫ 24H1 业绩稳健增长，下游航发及民品景气可期。公司 24H1、24Q2 营 业收入同比增速分别为 6.07%、6.41%；归母净利润同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hangcha Group (603298.SH) with a current price of 17.24 CNY and a reasonable value of 24.0 CNY per share [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion CNY in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.74%. The operating revenue increased by 29.29% [1]. - The net profit margin reached 12.53%, up by 1.53 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly net profit margin of 15.28%, an increase of 3.01 percentage points [1]. - The company is expanding its international presence, establishing Hangcha Europe Leasing Co., Ltd. in France to enhance global sales and leasing networks, with over 300 overseas dealers covering more than 200 countries [1]. - The demand for lithium battery products is expected to grow, with the company benefiting from its competitive advantages in the electric forklift market [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 16.272 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 12.9%. The EBITDA was 2.040 billion CNY, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.720 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 74.2% [2][3]. - The forecast for 2024 estimates operating revenue to reach 18.557 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 14.0%, and a net profit of 2.095 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 21.8% [2][3]. - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 2.449 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.883 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][2]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of lithium battery adoption in forklifts, with a market share increase expected due to the demand for larger and lithium-powered vehicles [1]. - The report highlights that the company has a competitive edge in the internal combustion forklift market, which is anticipated to enhance its performance further [1]. Analyst Team - The report is prepared by a team of analysts from GF Securities, including chief analysts and senior analysts with expertise in mechanical engineering and finance [4].