[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-11-24 SFC CE No. BNU965 021-38003625 [T相关研究： able_DocReport] 银行投资观察 20241117:暂 2024-11-17 时较弱的流动性与银行投资 思路切换窗口 银行行业:财政发行加速不影 2024-11-17 响年底前货币宽松——银行 资负跟踪 20241117 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20241124 人民币小幅升值，中美利差收窄 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本期观察区间：2024/11/16-2024/11/22，数据来源于 Wind、同花顺。 汇率走势：人民币小幅升值。根据同花顺，本期末 SDR 兑人民币汇率 为 9.47，人民币较上期末升值 0.33%，其中美元、欧元、日元、英镑 兑离岸人民币汇率较上期末分别变动+0.3%、-1.1%、+0.2%、-0.6%。 中美利差：中美利差小幅收窄。根据同花顺，本期末 10Y 中美国债利 差（中国-美国）为-2.3%，较上期末上升 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the utility industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The Guangdong electricity trading plan has been released, emphasizing three factors: electricity volume, electricity price, and cost transmission. The market scale is set to expand significantly, with the annual trading scale limit for the generation side increasing by 60 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 2024 [1][37] - The report suggests a more market-oriented approach in Guangdong's electricity pricing, reflecting both fixed and variable costs, and indicates a positive outlook on electricity price agreements due to stable coal prices and tight supply-demand dynamics [1][38] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on supply-demand dynamics rather than being overly pessimistic about electricity volume and price agreements, suggesting that the thermal power sector is transitioning to more stable profit margins [1][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Review - The Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau has issued a notice regarding electricity market trading for 2025, which includes an increase in market scale and improvements in the spot market operation mechanism [1][37][38] Section 2: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows that domestic and international coal prices have stabilized, while coastal power plant loads have decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [1][8] - Natural gas prices have significantly dropped, with recent weeks showing signs of stabilization [1][9] Section 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Several companies in the utility sector are highlighted with "Buy" ratings, including China Power, Huadian International, and others, with reasonable values projected for their stocks [3] Section 4: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the interconnection of four main lines of focus within the electricity sector: electricity price expectations, capital operations, and the performance of undervalued green and hydropower sectors [1][38] Section 5: Stock Performance Tracking - The report notes that the electricity index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index by approximately 21% since late September [1][38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [4] Core Insights - The "stabilize real estate" and "local debt" policies have significantly improved expectations for the sector, with further policy support anticipated. Despite facing short-term challenges, the construction materials industry is expected to gradually stabilize, with opportunities emerging as various segments reach their bottom [29][36] - The retail construction materials sector shows strong resilience supported by demand for second-hand and existing home renovations, while leading cyclical material companies continue to generate excess profits at the bottom of the cycle. Focus is recommended on growth-oriented, high-valuation elasticity consumer building materials, cement and glass leaders with bottom-line improvements, and opportunities in structural growth sectors like pharmaceutical glass [29][36] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transaction data indicates a rebound in October due to policy catalysts, but a marginal decline in November. New home transaction volume in 50 cities shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 26.3% for 2024, with a slight recovery in November [29][30] - Second-hand home transactions in 13 cities show a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.5% for 2024, with significant growth in October and November [29][30] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector benefits from stable long-term demand and increasing industry concentration. Leading companies are expected to have substantial growth potential despite the current downturn in new construction starts [41] - Key companies to watch include SanKeTree, Rabbit Baby, North New Materials, Weixing New Materials, China Liansu, Dongfang Yuhong, and East Peng Holdings, with additional attention on Jianlang Hardware and others [41] 3. Cement - Cement prices have seen a slight increase, with expectations of a fluctuating trend moving forward. The average national cement price is reported at 429 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 56 RMB/ton [29] - The industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with a positive outlook for companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [41] 4. Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with electronic yarn prices remaining stable. The average price for 2400tex winding direct yarn is 3608 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2] - Float glass prices have weakened, with an average price of 1453 RMB/ton, down 26.9% year-on-year. However, demand remains stable, and leading glass companies are currently undervalued [2][41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing deepening of investment-side reforms in the capital market, with a focus on the accelerated mergers of leading securities firms. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is reported at 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 21.8% decrease month-on-month. The margin balance stands at 1,845.17 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.06% [2][22] - In the insurance sector, the introduction of standardized claims regulations is expected to enhance public perception of insurance, supporting long-term growth. The gradual rollout of growth-stabilizing policies is likely to benefit long-term interest rates and equity markets, maintaining a high profit growth rate for the year [2][26] - The report suggests focusing on stocks in the securities and insurance sectors, highlighting companies such as Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Pacific Insurance [2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - As of November 22, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,267.19 points, down 1.91%, while the Shenzhen Component Index is at 10,438.72 points, down 2.89% [19] 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The insurance sector is experiencing a recovery phase, benefiting from strong demand for savings products. The long-term interest rates are low, and the asset side of insurance is awaiting marginal changes. The introduction of unified service standards for claims is expected to improve public sentiment towards insurance [22][26] (b) Securities - The capital market is advancing steadily, with significant reforms and mergers among leading securities firms. The report highlights the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which is progressing rapidly, with a shareholder meeting scheduled for December [27][32] 3. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations and financial metrics for key companies in the sector, recommending a "Buy" rating for several firms, including China Ping An, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance, among others [11][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Base metals are expected to see demand expectations stabilize, with prices anticipated to fluctuate. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are decreasing, and domestic fiscal policies are gradually being implemented to support domestic demand recovery. Industrial metal supply remains weak, and high costs for electrolytic aluminum are expected to lead to price fluctuations in industrial metals. Attention is drawn to the results of the 2025 copper TC long-term contract negotiations. Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum (A+H), Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, China Aluminum (A+H), Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [1][2] - In the steel sector, supply and demand are recovering, with steel prices slightly declining and profitability continuing to decrease. On the supply side, blast furnace operations have increased, but steel mill profitability is declining, with significant constraints on pig iron supply. Demand is expected to recover in the short term, with a focus on the implementation of macroeconomic policies. Cost pressures are likely to weaken profitability, suppressing raw material procurement demand. The supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable in the short term, with steel prices fluctuating. Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Nonferrous Metals Industry - From November 18 to November 22, the Shenwan Industrial Metal Index fell by 2.33% to 1808.41 points, while the Precious Metal Index rose by 2.41% to 14798.49 points. The Small Metal Index increased by 0.63% to 16775.14 points, and the New Metal Materials Index rose by 3.47% to 6606.18 points [26] 2. Metal Prices - Base metals prices showed mixed trends: LME copper rose by 0.02% to $8,972.50 per ton, LME aluminum fell by 1% to $2,630 per ton, LME lead increased by 3.43% to $2,018 per ton, LME zinc rose by 0.63% to $2,972 per ton, LME tin increased by 1.47% to $28,950 per ton, and LME nickel rose by 2.20% to $15,815 per ton. SHFE copper fell by 0.14% to ¥73,760 per ton, SHFE aluminum decreased by 1.73% to ¥20,420 per ton, and SHFE lead rose by 1.28% to ¥16,975 per ton [46][49] 3. Macroeconomic Overview - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic policies on the metal industry, emphasizing the importance of government measures to stabilize economic growth and their potential effects on metal demand and pricing [1][2]

金融工程|量化投资专题 2024 年 11 月 25 日 证券研究报告 基于相似度的因子研究 多因子 Alpha 系列报告之(五十三) 报告摘要: 图:SIM corr 因子分组收益统计 数据来源:中证指数,广发证券发展研究中心 识别风险,发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 28 分析师: 张钰东 SAC 执证号: S0260522070006 0755-23487806 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 安宁宁 SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 SFC CE No. BNW179 0755-23948352 anningning@gf.com.cn 张钰东并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 ● 研究背景:金融市场存在羊群效应,即股票之间存在一定领先滞后效应, 当某只股票收益率较高时,会吸引投资者的关注,而这种关注会溢出到 具有相似特征的股票上,即若相似股票在上一期获得较高收益时,预期 该股票本期可获得高收益。通过挖掘股票之间的相似性信息,可以捕捉 潜在的投资机会。 O 相似度刻画基本逻辑:结合近期学术成果,本报告从财务、市场特征等 指标相 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the US-listed (TCOM) and Hong Kong-listed (09961 HK) shares of Trip com Group [5] Core Views - Trip com Group reported strong 3Q24 results with net revenue of RMB 15 9 billion (+16% YoY +32% QoQ) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 6 billion (+22% YoY) [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0 3 percentage points YoY to 82 4% in 3Q24 [2] - Outbound travel recovery led the industry with overseas hotel and flight bookings reaching 120% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [3] - International OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 60% YoY with APAC bookings up more than 70% [3] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 6 8 billion in 3Q24 [2] - Transportation revenue increased 5% YoY to RMB 5 7 billion in 3Q24 [2] - Package tour revenue rose 17% YoY to RMB 1 6 billion in 3Q24 [2] - Corporate travel revenue grew 11% YoY to RMB 656 million in 3Q24 [2] Financial Projections - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to grow 32% 21% and 16% in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively reaching RMB 24 2 billion by 2026 [3] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 7% from 2024 to 2026 reaching RMB 69 6 billion in 2026 [4] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns in 2025 potentially combining share buybacks with dividends [3] Valuation - The report assigns a 16X PE multiple for 2025 valuing the US-listed shares at $67 44/ADS and HK-listed shares at HK$524 87/share [3] Key Financial Metrics - ROE is projected to improve from 11 4% in 2024 to 12 0% in 2025-2026 [10] - Net margin is expected to remain stable at around 31 5% from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The company's cash position is forecasted to grow from RMB 43 4 billion in 2024 to RMB 76 5 billion in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 5.27 CNY per share, based on a projected PB of 1.5 times for 2024 [5][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 143.73 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.31 billion CNY, up 223.80% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is optimizing its LCD product structure while increasing its OLED shipment volume. It maintains the global leading position in the shipment of large-size LCD products (≥85") and has made significant progress in flexible OLED products [3][10]. - The subsidiary, BOE Energy, is set to be listed on the New Third Board, which is expected to enhance the company's market competitiveness in the energy IoT sector and attract more investors [3][10]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.12, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY per share for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. The BPS for 2024 is estimated at 3.51 CNY per share [19]. - Revenue growth rates for the display device business are expected to be 14%, 12%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding gross margins of 14%, 15%, and 16% [15][19]. - The IoT innovation business is anticipated to grow at rates of 11%, 10%, and 10% over the same period, maintaining a gross margin of 10% [16][19]. Business Segments - In the display device segment, the company continues to solidify its leading position in semiconductor displays, focusing on high-quality products across various applications, including mobile devices and TVs [10][15]. - The IoT innovation business is expanding its global footprint, with significant projects underway in Vietnam and various smart solutions being implemented in financial and industrial sectors [16][19]. - The sensor and solution segment is seeing breakthroughs in market expansion and product development, particularly in medical imaging and automotive applications [17][19]. - The MLED segment is enhancing its competitive edge through high-quality product offerings in outdoor and commercial display markets [18][19].

Industry Rating - The industry rating is **Buy** [1] Core Views - The CITIC Media sector fell by 1.54% this week (Nov 18-22), outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.36 percentage points [5] - The A-share media sector experienced volatility, with significant gains mid-week due to strong performance of US-listed AI+marketing stocks, boosting expectations for domestic counterparts [5] - Internet: Focus on valuation re-rating of sector leaders like Tencent and Meituan, which have stable competitive landscapes and robust fundamentals [6] - Gaming: The sector is recommended due to potential earnings elasticity from product pipelines in 2025, with key companies like Perfect World, Century Huatong, and 37 Interactive Entertainment highlighted [6] - Publishing: Despite Q3 earnings declines due to tax policy changes and retail book consumption downturns, education publishing is expected to maintain steady growth with high dividend potential [6] - Film: A supply inflection point is expected in 2025, with several major films scheduled for release during the New Year and Spring Festival periods [6] - Marketing: Macroeconomic recovery is expected to boost advertiser confidence, with companies like Focus Media and BlueFocus recommended [6] - State-owned enterprise reform: Companies like New Media Group and Huashi Media are highlighted for their potential in state-owned enterprise reform and market value management [6] Sector Performance - The media sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 34% year-to-date [7] Key Company Updates - **Meituan-W**: Strong performance in local commerce, with food delivery and new businesses showing resilience and efficiency improvements [36] - **Tencent Holdings**: Steady growth in gaming and advertising, with strong performance in domestic and overseas games [37] - **Baidu**: Short-term ad performance impacted by product restructuring, but AI-driven cloud services are accelerating growth [38] - **Kuaishou-W**: Q3 revenue of RMB 31.1 billion, with robust growth in advertising and e-commerce GMV [41] - **Bilibili**: Q3 revenue of RMB 7.3 billion, driven by strong gaming performance, with a focus on high-margin businesses like advertising and gaming [42] - **37 Interactive Entertainment**: Stable game operations with a rich pipeline of new games, and a strong commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [43] - **Focus Media**: Q3 growth driven by FMCG and internet advertisers, with overseas expansion expected to contribute to future growth [46] Market Data - **Film Market**: Weekly box office (Nov 17-23) reached RMB 288 million, up 6.76% week-on-week, with *Shengquan Zaiwo* leading at RMB 67.81 million [50] - **TV Drama Market**: *Yongye Xinghe* topped the broadcast index with an average score of 86.5 [59] - **Variety Show Market**: *Zai Jian Airen Season 4* led with an average broadcast index of 83.0 [64] - **Gaming**: *Honor of Kings* remained the top-grossing game on the App Store [67] VC/PE Investments - **Magma Math**: Raised $40 million in Series A funding for K12 education [71] - **Zhonglianhezhong**: Secured RMB 50 million in Series A funding for education informatization [71] - **Paite Fresh**: Raised tens of millions in angel funding for pet services [71] - **Roboflow**: Secured $40 million in Series B funding for video/live streaming [71]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $21.66 per share, compared to the current price of $14.06 [4]. Core Insights - The company is the world's first eVTOL enterprise to obtain all three necessary certifications (TC, AC, PC), leading the commercialization process in the industry. The EH216 series and VT series form the core product matrix, providing solutions for various applications such as urban air mobility and aerial media [2][39]. - The low-altitude economy is set to take off, with eVTOL expected to become a primary aircraft in this sector. The domestic eVTOL market is projected to reach a scale of 379.5 billion yuan by 2030 [2]. - The company holds significant first-mover advantages due to its certifications and superior product resources. It has a substantial backlog of domestic and international orders, supported by strong initial production capacity [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 434 million, 815 million, and 1.217 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to narrow from losses to a profit of 80 million yuan by 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the urban air mobility sector, having been founded in 2014 and achieving significant milestones, including the launch of the world's first passenger-grade autonomous flying vehicle in 2016 and its listing on NASDAQ in 2019 [39][43]. Low Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with government support and clear airspace divisions facilitating the development of various applications, including logistics, tourism, and emergency services [104][105]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a revenue increase of 165% in 2023, returning to a growth trajectory after a downturn during the pandemic. The net loss has been narrowing, indicating improving financial health [82][86]. Product and Market Position - The company has a diverse product lineup covering various scenarios, including passenger transport, logistics, and emergency response. The EH216 series and VT-30 are pivotal in capturing market share in urban air mobility [65][86].