Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [3][7]. Core Insights - The company's high-end product series has driven profit margin improvements, but future profit growth may be limited. The company reported a revenue of 10.09 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while the infant formula industry experienced a double-digit decline. Gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 67.9% due to product structure optimization and the continued growth of high-end series [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.1632 HKD per share, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a payout ratio of 72% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, corresponding to a net profit margin of 18.9%. Operating profit was 3.06 billion RMB, with an operating profit margin of 30.3%, up nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 20.8 billion RMB for 2024E, 22.2 billion RMB for 2025E, and 23.3 billion RMB for 2026E, with expected growth rates of 6.5%, 6.5%, and 5.0% respectively [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The growth drivers for the company include increasing consumer confidence in domestic infant formula quality, the release of new national standards raising industry entry barriers, and the growth of the high-end market segment [2]. - The company has been removing low-end product lines and focusing on high-end and ultra-high-end series, which has contributed to the significant increase in gross margin [2]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 4.00 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times the 2025 earnings, reflecting a conservative outlook due to ongoing industry pressures and limited profit growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company, but it indicates that the company is currently "unrated" with a target price of 1.95, suggesting a potential downside of 2.7% from the current price of 2.00 [6]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 1.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and adjusted EBITDA of 574 million RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting total revenue between 7.8 billion and 8.0 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% to 7.9% [1]. - The AI-driven base IDC business showed significant growth, with revenue of 400 million RMB in Q2, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4%, contributing 20% to total revenue [2]. - The company has increased its full-year capital expenditure guidance from 3.7-4.2 billion RMB to 5.0-5.5 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.7% to 53.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Q2 Performance Overview - Revenue for Q2 2024 was 1,994 million RMB, a 9.4% increase year-on-year and a 5.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was 574 million RMB, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.8% [4]. - The net profit for Q2 2024 was 72 million RMB, a significant recovery from a net loss of 2,423 million RMB in Q4 2023 [4]. IDC Business Growth - The base IDC business achieved revenue of 400 million RMB in Q2 2024, with a total capacity of 332 MW, and a utilization rate of 75.9% [2]. - The company signed two large orders for its Ulanqab data center, totaling 235 MW, primarily driven by AI computing demand [2]. Future Growth Potential - The company has a high pre-signing rate of 85.5% for its ongoing projects, which is expected to provide stable revenue support in the future [2]. - The company holds 120 MW of near-term reserves and 408 MW of long-term reserves, supporting short-term capacity expansion and long-term business growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 39.29, indicating a potential upside of 35.3% from the current price of HKD 29.05 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The MONA series is expected to lead sales into a second growth curve, with the M03 model anticipated to have a highly competitive final price and superior energy consumption and in-car systems compared to peers [1]. - The company is projected to improve sales and revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 by 6-9% and 12-23% respectively, driven by the M03 and the upcoming P7+ model [1][2]. - The M03 is expected to maintain sales momentum through a two-phase launch strategy, with the entry-level version priced competitively at approximately RMB 120,000 to 125,000 [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 40,224 million, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1%, and for 2025E at RMB 51,918 million, reflecting a growth of 29.1% [3][6]. - The gross profit for 2024E is forecasted to be RMB 5,099 million, with a gross margin of 12.7%, improving from 8.8% in 2023 [3][6]. - The net loss is expected to narrow to RMB 4,974 million in 2024E, compared to RMB 10,376 million in 2023 [3][6]. Sales and Delivery Expectations - The company anticipates delivering 20,000 vehicles in September, with expectations that over 10,000 units of the M03 will be delivered in the same month [1][2]. - The M03 model is designed to attract younger consumers, particularly female users, with its stylish appearance and customizable options [1]. Competitive Positioning - The M03 is positioned competitively against similar models, with a projected price of RMB 150,000, compared to competitors like the Qin L120KM and Tesla Model 3, which are priced significantly higher [7]. - The report highlights the advantages of the MONA series in terms of in-car technology and autonomous driving capabilities, which are expected to further enhance the company's market position [2][7].

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the overall market, with a projected 8% year-on-year growth in e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the third quarter, driven by increased consumer frequency and supply chain expansion [2][8]. - Major platforms are expected to see a recovery in growth rates in the third quarter, with Alibaba's GMV and CMR projected to grow by 8% and 3% respectively, while JD.com is expected to maintain revenue growth above the retail sales growth rate [1][2]. - Pinduoduo is anticipated to continue gaining market share, while Alibaba focuses on the impact of new advertising products and technology service fees on monetization rates [2]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for physical e-commerce retail sales was 8.1%, up from 6.4% in the second quarter. Categories such as communication equipment and sports/entertainment goods returned to double-digit growth [1][7]. - The postal bureau predicts a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for July, driven by the low average order value trend in e-commerce [1][8]. Company Performance - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall reported a high single-digit growth in GMV, with a 1% increase in CMR, affected by the lower monetization rate from new business models [1]. - JD.com's revenue met expectations, with a decline in revenue from electrical appliances due to high base effects, while non-electrical categories maintained double-digit growth [1]. - Pinduoduo is focusing on GMV growth, while Douyin e-commerce is shifting its operational goals back to GMV from price competitiveness [1]. Valuation Overview - Pinduoduo (PDD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 213.0, currently trading at 145.1, indicating a potential upside of 46.8% [5]. - Alibaba (BABA US) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 111.0, currently at 79.5, suggesting a potential upside of 39.6% [5]. - JD.com (JD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 41.0, currently at 27.0, indicating a potential upside of 51.9% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD US [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that JD US's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 291.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%. The adjusted net profit rose by 69% year-on-year to RMB 14.5 billion, exceeding market expectations by 47% [5][6]. - The target price for JD US has been raised from USD 40 to USD 41, indicating a potential upside of 51.9% from the current price [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2024 revenue breakdown: - Product revenue: RMB 233.9 billion, with a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase and 0% year-on-year change. - Service revenue: RMB 57.5 billion, a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase and 6% year-on-year increase [9]. - Gross margin improved by 137 basis points year-on-year, driven by enhanced supply chain capabilities and reduced subsidies [5][6]. - Adjusted operating profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards by 13%, with an expected adjusted net profit growth of over 20% year-on-year [6]. - The report anticipates continued improvements in profit margins due to enhanced supply chain capabilities [6]. - The company aims to balance market share, profit growth, user experience, and stable shareholder returns [6]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E: RMB 1,139.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [7]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 42.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [7]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 is expected to be 7 times, with a PEG ratio of 0.3 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $111 or HKD 107 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of GMV growth certainty in the upcoming quarter, driven by improved monetization strategies and stable market share [1][8]. - The company is expected to see continuous optimization in profit performance across various business segments over the next 1-2 years [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue for FY2023 was RMB 868,687 million, with a projected increase to RMB 941,168 million in FY2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [3]. - Net profit for FY2023 was RMB 141,379 million, expected to rise to RMB 157,479 million in FY2024, indicating a 12.2% growth [3]. - The adjusted EBITA for the first quarter of FY2025 is projected to be RMB 48.8 billion, with a profit margin of 43% [25]. Business Segment Performance - Taobao's GMV experienced a high single-digit growth year-on-year, with a 1% increase in CMR, although this was partially offset by a decline in monetization rates due to the rise of lower-commercialization new business models [4][8]. - International business revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, driven by the performance of AliExpress and key market expansions, despite an increase in losses due to higher investments in cross-border business [4][9]. - Cloud revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, supported by strong growth in public cloud and AI-related products, with paid users of Alibaba Cloud's AI platform increasing by over 200% quarter-on-quarter [4][26]. - Local services revenue grew by 12%, benefiting from increased orders on Ele.me and Gaode, with significant improvements in loss margins [4][27]. - Cainiao's revenue rose by 16%, primarily due to increased investment in cross-border logistics fulfillment services [10][28].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of JD Logistics (2618 HK) to "Buy" [5][6][16] Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a significant improvement in profits for Q2 2024, with a notable increase in gross margin, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. The revenue growth is expected to be in line with current forecasts, and the company's valuation remains below the industry average [5][6] - The target price has been raised to HKD 11.3 based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2024, indicating a potential upside of 45.2% from the current price [5][16] Revenue and Profit Summary - For Q2 2024, total revenue reached RMB 44.2 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit soaring to RMB 2.5 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year, achieving a net profit margin of 5.6%, the highest since the company went public [5][7][11] - The gross profit margin improved by 3.6 percentage points, primarily due to a reduction in outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue [5][8] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been slightly adjusted to reflect an 8% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been increased by 16%, resulting in a profit margin of 2.8% [5][12] - The company aims to continue optimizing its network structure and enhancing technological capabilities to achieve steady profit growth [5][12] Financial Performance Metrics - The report highlights that JD Logistics' current price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2024, which is below the industry average, reinforcing the rationale for the upgraded rating and target price [5][12][18] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue of RMB 180.6 billion for 2024, with a gross profit of RMB 16.8 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.3 billion [18][19]

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 8 月 12 日 电池行业月报 海外放缓扩产步调；中国电池产销保持增长，但库存压力犹存 中国动力电池产销保持增长，但1-7 月产装率达2.1。根据中国汽车动力电 池产业创新联盟公众号，产量：7月，我国电池总产量为91.8 GWh，同比/ 环比分别+33.1%/+8.6%：1-7 月，累计产量为 521.8 GWh，同比+36.2%：销 量：7 月，我国电池销量为 86.3 GWh，同比/环比分别+49.9%/-6.4%。1-7 月，电池累计销量为 488.9 GWh，同比+41.9%。其中，动力电池当月销量 为 62.2 GWh，同比+19.0%；1-7 月累计销量为 380.3 GWh，同比+25.3%。 装车量：7 月，我国动力电池装车量 41.6 GWh，同比/环比分别+29.0%/- 2.9%。1-7 月，我国动力电池累计装车量 244.9 GWh，同比+32.8%。整体来 看，2024 年 1-7 月我国动力电池产装率达 2.13，高于 2022/2023 年的 1.84/1.91，动力电池库存压力仍然较大。 磷酸铁锂电池增速强势，7 月全国装车量占比达 72. ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2024 年 8 月 13 日 汽车行业 1H24 海外电池装车增速放缓，但中国电池企业海外市占率进一步提升 全球电池装车量增速放缓，中国电池企业海外市场份额显著提升。根据 SNE Research 数据，1H24 全球（除中国外）电池装车量达 165.3 GWh，同 比+13.1%（对比2023年同比增速44%），我们认为增速下滑主要因为期内 海外电动车销量增速放缓至+8.2%（对比 2023 年的+32%）。但中国电池企 业市场份额提升明显，1H24 前十大电池装车企业中，有四家中国企业， 包括宁德时代/比亚迪/中创新航/孚能科技，期内合计装车量57.4 GWh（同 比+28.7%），市场份额提升 4.4 个百分点至 34.8%。 海外市场，日系和韩系电池厂商市场份额下滑。1）韩国电池企业整体市 场份额同比下降 1.8 个百分点。1H24，LG Energy Solution/SK on/Samsung SDI 合计电池装车量为 77.4 GWh（同比+8.9%），市场份额同比下降 1.8 个 百分点至 46.9%。其中，Samsung SDI 期内同比增长 17. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The company's online business remains stable, and copyright operations have exceeded expectations, with a focus on the incremental contributions from short dramas and derivative products [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28%, which is better than the market expectation of 13% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 700 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing market expectations by 7% [1]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in overall revenue for the year, primarily due to a robust core paid platform and increased third-party platform collaborations offsetting the contraction in Tencent's channel [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2022: 7,626 million RMB, 2023: 7,012 million RMB, 2024E: 7,804 million RMB, 2025E: 7,995 million RMB, 2026E: 8,334 million RMB, with a projected growth rate of 11.3% for 2024 [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is set at 1.4 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 25% compared to 2023 [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 51% for 2024, with operational profit margins improving to 12% by 2025 [8][11]. Business Segments - The online business segment showed a slight decline of 2% year-on-year, with self-operated channels maintaining a steady MAU of 105 million and 8.8 million paid users [1][7]. - Copyright operations saw a significant increase of 73% year-on-year, driven by the release of major series and the expansion of core IP licensing [1][7]. - New business areas, including short dramas and derivative products, are expected to contribute positively, with the IP card game generating a GMV of 100 million RMB in the first half of the year [1][2]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 29 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 14.4% from the current price of 25.35 HKD [1][9]. - The report slightly raises the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 by 1% to 1.4 billion RMB, based on a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2023 to 2025 [2][8].