Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, the overall revenue growth rate for A-shares was -0.91%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points from Q2[6] - The net profit growth rate for A-shares was -0.52%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points from Q2[6] - Non-financial and non-petroleum sectors saw a revenue decline of -1.59% in Q3, down 0.65 percentage points from Q2, and a net profit decline of -7.42%, down 0.99 percentage points from Q2[6] Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector experienced a revenue growth rate of 15.7% and a net profit growth rate of 41.2% in Q3[15] - The real estate sector faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 23.2% and a net profit decline of 148.3% year-on-year, although it showed a 19.5% increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter[15] - The consumer sector, particularly in home appliances and automobiles, showed revenue growth rates of 4.1% and 5.4%, respectively, but faced quarter-on-quarter declines[16] ROE and PB-ROE Trends - The overall ROE for A-shares in Q3 was 8.14%, up 0.12 percentage points from Q2, while the ROE for non-financial sectors was 7.15%, down 0.13 percentage points[12] - The PB-ROE ratio for the non-bank financial sector improved, with ROE percentile rising to 28.5%, an increase of 23.7 percentage points from Q2[22] - The PB values across all sectors improved in Q3 compared to Q2, indicating a recovery in valuations[19] Investment Insights - Industries with both PB and ROE at low levels may present investment opportunities as they show potential for improvement[17] - Caution is advised in sectors where PB has rapidly increased without corresponding ROE growth, indicating potential overvaluation risks[18] - The consumer sector, particularly agriculture, saw a significant ROE percentile increase to 57.1%, up 37.6 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment[27]

中泰证券研究所 专业｜领先｜深度｜诚信 ｜证券研究报告｜ 出版三季报总结：主业平稳，稳中前行 2024 . 1 1 . 0 7 中泰证券·传媒互联网研究团队 康雅雯 S0740515080001 李昱喆 S0740524090002 资料来源：各公司公告 Wind 中泰证券研究所（备注：股价与市值数据截至2024年11月06日） 2 核心观点 出版观点总结： 2024Q1-Q3出版行业营收1,030.6亿元，同比减少2.0%；归母净利润93.6亿元，同比减少27.1%。2024Q3营收319.5亿元，同比减少6.9%；归母净利润22.0亿元，同比减少36.7%。营收 及利润在税收政策变化带来所得税费用增加叠加教材教辅征订节奏偏慢、一般图书消费复苏偏弱情况下有所承压。其中，央企出版集团经营端面临一定挑战，费用率稳定；地方国企 出版集团经营整体平稳，稳控费用支出，分红金额稳中有升；民营出版公司业绩继续分化，费用率波动较大。出版市场景气度后续有望随着步入Q4图书促销活动密集期带动图书销售 量上升，逐步回暖。 我们持续看好出版公司运用国有背书、账上现金优势，加大对外并购以及资本运作力度，提高资金使用效率。同时，出版公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The gaming industry is gradually recovering, but business adjustments have impacted revenue release [1] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to structural adjustments in its digital marketing segment and fluctuations in gaming recharge flow [1] - The company's flagship fishing game product has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to positively influence future revenue [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 3,915 - 2023A: 4,307 (10% YoY growth) - 2024E: 3,978 (-8% YoY) - 2025E: 4,324 (9% YoY) - 2026E: 4,612 (7% YoY) [1] - **Net Profit (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 349 - 2023A: 562 (61% YoY growth) - 2024E: 618 (10% YoY growth) - 2025E: 705 (14% YoY growth) - 2026E: 753 (7% YoY growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (CNY)**: - 2023A: 1.36 - 2024E: 1.50 - 2025E: 1.71 - 2026E: 1.83 [2] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 17% - 2024E: 16% - 2025E: 16% - 2026E: 14% [1] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - 2023A: 19.7 - 2024E: 17.6 - 2025E: 15.4 - 2026E: 14.4 [1] - **Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)**: - 2023A: 3.4 - 2024E: 2.9 - 2025E: 2.5 - 2026E: 2.2 [1] Market Performance - The company's stock price has been affected by adjustments in the digital marketing sector and fluctuations in gaming revenue, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue [1] - The company aims to focus on higher-margin businesses in its marketing segment, which is expected to improve profitability in the future [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing high growth in orders and performance, with a significant recovery in the consumer electronics sector driving sales of its flagship product, the drilling and milling machine [1][2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, contributing to revenue growth [1] - The introduction of high-end five-axis CNC machines is gaining traction, with several models achieving mass sales, indicating a growing revenue stream from this segment [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 4,527 - 2023A: 3,529 - 2024E: 4,652 - 2025E: 5,856 - 2026E: 7,272 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -22% - 2024E: 32% - 2025E: 26% - 2026E: 24% [1] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 335 - 2023A: 194 - 2024E: 376 - 2025E: 514 - 2026E: 686 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -42% - 2024E: 94% - 2025E: 36% - 2026E: 33% [1] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2022A: 0.20 - 2023A: 0.12 - 2024E: 0.23 - 2025E: 0.31 - 2026E: 0.41 [1] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as a leader in the drilling and milling machine market, with a strong market share in the consumer electronics sector [1] - The flagship drilling machine is utilized for precision machining of mobile phones, tablets, and metal structural components, competing effectively with international leaders [1] - The company has established strong relationships with major domestic electronics manufacturers, enhancing its market position [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth driven by several factors, including increased demand for titanium alloy mobile phone frames, ongoing recovery in the consumer electronics sector, and rising mobile phone sales [1] - The five-axis high-end machine segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with increasing brand recognition and customer acceptance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 386 million in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 92% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 210 million, up 154% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 990 million, a 91% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 520 million, reflecting a 170% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company’s product, Wei Yi Mei, has surpassed one million units sold since its launch, and it has established a presence in over 3,000 medical beauty terminals as of the first half of 2024 [1]. - The collagen sector remains highly prosperous, with stable pricing and a declaration from the company to not authorize online platforms or social media for sales, suggesting expected price stability [1]. - The company has received its first overseas medical device registration certificate for its subcutaneous filler in Vietnam, marking a significant step in its international expansion [4]. - The company has formed a strategic partnership with L'Oréal to incorporate recombinant human collagen into its products, further enhancing its international market presence [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 1.412 billion for 2024, 1.977 billion for 2025, and 2.570 billion for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 81%, 40%, and 30% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 701 million in 2024, 1.013 billion in 2025, and 1.304 billion in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 134%, 44%, and 29% respectively [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 93.6%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.3 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The company’s overall net profit margin reached 54.6%, remaining stable compared to Q2 while improving by 13% year-over-year [3]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the high-demand collagen market, with a strong product pipeline and ongoing research and development efforts [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of new product registrations and market expansions as potential catalysts for future growth [4].

周大生（002867.SZ） 饰品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 06 日 金价抑制需求，基本面短期承压 ——周大生 2024Q3 业绩点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The rapid increase in gold prices has significantly suppressed the demand for gold jewelry, leading to short-term pressure on the company's performance. However, the company has achieved store expansion against the trend, demonstrating the unique brand appeal. The long-term logic of the industry has changed, but the current valuation level remains low, indicating continued investment value [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 4,417 - 2023A: 5,900 - 2024E: 6,295 - 2025E: 6,886 - 2026E: 7,608 - Year-on-Year Growth Rate: - 2023A: 34% - 2024E: 7% - 2025E: 9% - 2026E: 10% [2] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 199 - 2023A: 333 - 2024E: 360 - 2025E: 416 - 2026E: 464 - Year-on-Year Growth Rate: - 2023A: 67% - 2024E: 8% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 11% [2] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2022A: 0.22 - 2023A: 0.38 - 2024E: 0.41 - 2025E: 0.47 - 2026E: 0.52 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its store count despite a weak market environment, indicating strong brand attraction for franchisees. The key investment logic lies in channel expansion, which is expected to remain unchanged. As consumer spending recovers, the combination of increased single-store profits and store growth is anticipated to yield significant profit elasticity [2][3]

珀莱雅（603605.SH） 化妆品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 06 日 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 分析师：张前 执业证书编号：S0740524080002 Email：zhangqian08@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------------|-----------| | | | | 基本状况 | | | 总股本 (百万股) | 396.25 | | 流通股本(百万股 ) | 395.41 | | 市价(元 ) | 97.24 | | 市值(百万元 ) | 38,531.11 | | 流通市值 (百万元) | 38,449.18 | 相关报告 1、《24H1 业绩超预期，强品牌驱动 持续高增长》2024-09-09 深耕大单品策略，未来增长可期。 ①大单品源力面霜 2.0 首次将 XVII 型重组胶 原蛋白应用其中，进一步巩固了品牌在基底膜修护抗初老领域的专业性；红宝 石精华 3.0 将中国美妆领域首款专利环肽新原料与专研双 A 组合结合，实现进 阶抗皱。②针对油皮上新"净源 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a positive trend in RevPAR during the National Day holiday, indicating a recovery in performance [1] - The opening structure of the company continues to optimize, with a focus on enhancing the proportion of standard brands [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in the upcoming quarters, driven by the recovery of business travel demand [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenue of 5,089 million in 2022, with a projected increase to 7,809 million in 2024 and 8,939 million in 2026 [1] - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rise from -582 million in 2022 to 850 million in 2024 and 1,061 million in 2026 [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to improve from -0.52 in 2022 to 0.76 in 2024 and 0.95 in 2026 [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is expected to recover from -5% in 2022 to 7% in 2024 and 8% in 2026 [1] Operational Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 21.6 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 3.7 billion, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] - The hotel management business saw a year-on-year growth of 8% in Q3, while the scenic area business declined by 9% [1] Store Opening and Structure - The company opened a total of 385 new stores in the first three quarters, with a net increase of 273 stores [1] - The proportion of standard brand hotels has increased, contributing positively to revenue [1] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - **Operating Cash Flow**: The operating cash flow is projected to be 2,158 million in 2024, increasing to 2,444 million in 2026 [4] - **Debt Ratios**: The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.7, indicating a stable financial structure [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights that passive and northbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector during Q3 2024, with passive funds surpassing northbound funds for the first time, becoming the dominant pricing power in the market [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Bank Stock Holdings Changes - Passive funds accounted for a substantial portion of the inflow, with inflows of 620.99 million, while active and northbound funds had inflows of 13.87 million and 135.07 million respectively, representing 4.83%, 0.11%, and 1.05% of the total trading volume in Q3 [2] - The proportion of institutional holdings in bank stocks, ranked from highest to lowest, is as follows: passive funds (1.94%) > northbound funds (1.91%) > active funds (0.52%) [2] Active Funds - Active funds increased their holdings in bank stocks, with a rise of 0.09 percentage points to 2.93%, marking three consecutive quarters of increases, and a narrowing low allocation gap of 8.70% compared to Q2 [2] - Notable increases in holdings were observed in quality city and rural commercial banks, with Jiangsu, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Chongqing showing increases of 0.76, 0.33, 0.30, and 0.27 percentage points respectively [2] - Major net inflows into active funds were recorded for Jiangsu, Bank of China, and Ningbo, with inflows of 10.99 million, 9.11 million, and 4.14 million respectively [2] Passive Funds - Passive funds significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector, with total holdings reaching 1671.7 million, a 59.1% increase from Q2, representing 1.94% of the total market capitalization of listed banks [2] - The growth in passive fund holdings was driven by a substantial increase in ETF sizes, with a total growth of 1.03 trillion, including a 456.1 billion increase in the CSI 300 index, leading to significant inflows into banks with high weights in this index, such as Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and major state-owned banks [2] - The largest inflows in Q3 2024 were seen in China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Bank of Communications, and Agricultural Bank, with inflows of 122.97 million, 73.34 million, 55.81 million, 43.37 million, and 40.50 million respectively [2] Northbound Funds - Northbound funds continued to increase their holdings in the banking sector, with total holdings reaching 1646.4 million, a 7.34% increase from Q2 [2] - The proportion of northbound funds in the total market capitalization of listed banks decreased slightly by 4 basis points to 1.91% [2] - Major inflows from northbound funds were observed in China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, ICBC, and Pudong Development Bank, with inflows of 27.25 million, 16.05 million, 15.58 million, and 15.49 million respectively [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality city and rural commercial banks with debt repayment benefits, particularly those with strong fundamentals and low valuations [2] - If economic expectations continue to improve, core assets within the banking sector are recommended [2] - In a scenario of weak economic recovery with debt repayment benefits, high dividend yield stocks, particularly large banks, are advised [2]