Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Cost side: Affected by Trump's tariff exemption news, risk assets in the macro - level have stabilized temporarily, but related negotiations are at a stalemate, and market sentiment is cautious. The fundamentals of crude oil have limited marginal changes, with overall expectations slightly improved and support still existing [6]. - Supply side: Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate decreased. Over the weekend, PTA plants such as Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua restarted. Without new maintenance plans, the PTA operating rate is expected to rise this week [8]. - Production profit: Last week, the PTA production profit declined. Before the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases and there are no obvious positive signs on the demand side, the PTA production profit is unlikely to recover significantly [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the total PTA inventory continued to decline, but the available days of in - factory inventory increased. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester and the warehouse receipt inventory both decreased [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester operating rate remained high, but the average available days of inventory increased, and the average production profit decreased [8]. - Overall logic: The cost - side support from crude oil remains. In terms of PTA supply and demand, supply decreased and demand remained high last week. The fundamentals are good, and the total inventory is continuously decreasing, but the pessimistic sentiment caused by tariffs has led to a decline in PTA processing fees. In the later stage, if there is no new maintenance for the restarted PTA plants last week, the operating rate will rise this week. Although the polyester on the demand side is at a seasonal high in operating rate, under the pressure of high inventory, insufficient orders, and compressed profits, the high operating rate is difficult to maintain in the long term. If the PTA operating rate continues to increase, supply and demand may turn weak. However, considering the cost - side support, the short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate. The view is to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the short - term PTA price, with the reference range for the main contract being 4200 - 4500 [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - PTA futures price: Last week, the PTA price fluctuated narrowly and rose, with the highest price reaching 4398 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4218 yuan/ton [15]. - PTA futures trading volume and open interest: Last week, the PTA futures trading volume decreased from 2.1226 million lots to 1.3233 million lots, and the open interest increased from 1.5443 million lots to 1.6102 million lots [20]. Supply - PTA weekly operating rate: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.99% to 76.74%, and the output decreased from 1.3617 million tons to 1.3385 million tons [28]. - PTA restart and maintenance plans: Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua plants restarted over the weekend. Without new maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase this week. There are also multiple plants with maintenance and restart schedules, such as Hainan Yisheng, Sichuan Energy Investment, etc. [32]. Profit - PTA processing fee: Last week, the PTA spot processing fee decreased from 393.4 yuan/ton to 322.89 yuan/ton, and the average disk processing fee decreased from 392.63 yuan/ton to 338.43 yuan/ton [38]. Inventory - PTA total inventory: The PTA total inventory continued to decline, from 2.7843 million tons to 2.5549 million tons. The available days of in - factory inventory increased from 4.32 days to 4.36 days, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories decreased from 760,600 tons to 701,200 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 810,900 tons to 695,100 tons [47]. Demand - Polyester operating rate and output: Last week, the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased from 91.31% to 91.09%, and the output increased from 1.5506 million tons to 1.5588 million tons [53]. - Polyester inventory and production profit: The average polyester inventory increased from 15.56 days to 16.16 days, and the average production profit decreased from 53.02 yuan/ton to - 8.02 yuan/ton [60].

www.mkqh.com 宏观仍有风险，关注北美种植期天气 投研服务中心 2025.4.14 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 近端弱预期，宏观仍有扰动 近端弱预期，宏观仍有扰动 -国际方面： 上周美方关税政策震荡反复，对其他国家关税延迟，CBOT大豆回升。但关税政策仍极大 影响中方进口美豆意愿。全球大豆贸易流向继续重塑，显著推涨巴西大豆升贴水，抬升 国内进口大豆成本。从美豆进口季节性规律来看，远月09合约受影响更大。在新作美豆 播种面积减少的情况下，种植期天气将加大盘面波动性。但需注意巴西大豆本年度产量 增加，出口窗口的拉长或将熨平三季度美豆紧缺影响。同时关注未来中美贸易关系是否 会有缓和。 -国内供需： 当前为巴西大豆上市高峰期，进口大豆将逐步进入压榨环节，近月供应相对充足。目前 部分区域进口大豆通关速度较慢，油厂开机率下滑。关税提振市场情绪，下游买兴增加， 油厂豆粕去库。 -结论及观点： USDA4月供需报告维持此前预估，关注5月新作供需格局预估 | | | | | 全球和主要国家新作大豆供需平衡表(百万吨) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

玻璃厂库存去化，纯碱产量高位碱厂累库 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 迈科期货投研服务中心 2025.04.07 Maike 迈科期货 www.mkqh.com @2019 Maike Futures 玻璃：下游深加工恢复较慢，玻璃厂库存去化 供应：短中期内玻璃产量变化不大，上周玻璃产量环比小幅回升。上周浮法玻璃产量110.88万吨（+0.05），全国浮法玻璃 开工率75.42%（-0.24）。 需求：3月31日下游深加工厂订单天数8.2天（+0.2），浮法玻璃周度表需2461.45万重量箱（+161.7），下游需求恢复缓 慢。中长期看，房地产竣工下行对玻璃需求有压制，但需关注二手房成交好转或将带来超预期的需求支撑。短期需警惕盘面 下行或将带动投机需求走弱。 库存：玻璃产销好转，玻璃厂库存去化。湖北地区玻璃厂库存去化。上周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6575.7万重箱（一 125.5）。上周湖北厂内库存580万重量箱（-55.4）。 成本与利润：玻璃成本环比下滑，价格略有上升，上周利润环比回升。 结论及观点：美国对华关税政策带动市场情绪悲观，风险 ...