Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自导科 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | 0.21% | 0.86% | 215 | 115 | 165 | 101870 | 101970 | 101920 | 102085 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | | 指 | AL | 0.04% | 1.23% | 10 | -15 | -60 | 23990 | 24015 | 24060 | 24000 | SMM A00铝 | | | 锌 | ZN | 0.52% | 0.54% | 125 | 80 | 40 | 24045 | 24090 | 24130 | 2417 ...

※有色金属期货价格为结算价,其他期货价格为收盘价。 Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 2026年01月08日9:00 备注: 1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式: 主力基差率=（现货价格-主力合约价格）/主力合约价格。基差率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今, 2.数据来源：Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带*报价为周更数据;带**报价现货与基准交割品有差别, | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自合公 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | -0.65% | -1.01% | -680 | -800 | -790 | 104090 | 104210 | 104200 | 103410 | ...

投研服务中心 2026.1 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 国内供应仍显宽松 国内供应仍显宽松，等待报告 指引 www.mkqh.com 国内供应仍显宽松 - 国际方面： 目前中方对美豆仍保持13%进口关税，商业性采购仍难以展开。中方对美豆采购进度不如预期，出口 乐观情绪逐渐降温。1月USDA报告看点在于美豆出口量是否会相应下调，进而令库消比回升。CBOT 大豆盘面震荡回落。巴西大豆播种工作进入尾声，部分地区已开启收割，盘面暂无天气升水，丰产预 期维持。 - 国内供需： 国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足。下游饲料企业库存较高需求有限，提货一般。油 厂豆粕继续累库，库存仍在高位。一季度国内进口大豆远期供应缺口部分修复，需观察美豆采购计划。 海关收紧到港政策的预期引发阶段性供应担忧，但在大豆、豆粕库存高位的情况下，盘面情绪易有回 落风险。 - 结论及观点： 南美大豆即将上市，CBOT大豆盘面承压震荡回落。盘面交易重心仍在国际大豆贸易流向，关注美豆 出口进度能否支撑CBOT大豆。国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足，但一季度进口大 豆存在结构性紧缺预期。蛋白粕市场震荡运行，豆粕05 ...

www.mkqh.com 玻璃纯碱成本支撑下移，盘面底部震荡运行 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 投研服务中心 -- 符佳敏 2025.12.29 Maike 迈科期货 @2019 Maike Futures 玻璃核心观点 - 关注事件:玻璃产量、玻璃厂库存、玻璃现货价格。 - 供应: 上周浮法玻璃产量108.4万吨 (-0.19) , 全国浮法玻璃开工率73.89% (-0.1)。 - 需求: 12月15日下游深加工厂订单天数9.7天（-0.4）, 上周浮法玻璃周度表 需2161.59万重量箱（+22.8）。 - 库存: 上周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5862.3万重箱（+6.5）; 湖北厂内 库存581万車量箱（+26.5）: 沙河厂内库存431.76万重量箱（+43.12）: 沙 河贸易商库存420万重量箱（-24）。 - 成本与利润：上周玻璃成本稳中有升，利润下滑。 - 结论及观点：供应端,上周一条产线冷修,玻璃产量环比下滑。当前玻璃厂利 润走弱,叠加玻璃厂库存偏高,可能引发后续玻璃厂冷修预期,后续重点关注 玻璃供应情况。需求端，年底赶 ...

www.mkqh.com 玻璃供需格局好转，碱厂检修意愿增加 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 投研服务中心——符佳敏 2026.01.06 Maike 迈科期货 @2019 Maike Futures 玻璃 供需格局好转，关注中下游补库情况 - 供应端, 当前玻璃价格下行, 玻璃厂利润走弱, 叠加玻璃厂库存偏高, 引发玻 璃厂不断冷修，当前玻璃厂日熔量为15.15万吨，后续重点关注玻璃供应情况。 在供应走弱情况下，玻璃供需格局有所好转，这可能对价格有一定支撑。需求 端,年底赶工需求环比走弱,北方地区销售压力明显,厂家降价销售。地产依 旧弱势运行导致玻璃需求难有较大向上空间，下游深加工订单天数同比依旧较 弱，玻璃表需处于历年同期偏低水平。库存端，12月份需求虽然较差，但在 供应下行情况下,玻璃厂库存压力有所缓解,库存去化;中游贸易商库存处于 高位水平，后续补库力度可能有限。当前玻璃供应走弱，关注是否能带动中下 游补库,这可能对玻璃价格短期有一定支撑。 - 结论:玻璃震荡偏多思路对待，注意控制风险。玻璃指数参考1010-1150。 检修意愿增加短期 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For coke, it should be treated with a volatile mindset, with the coke index ranging from 1530 - 1750. The supply is expected to be weakly stable in January, demand will improve month - on - month, and steel mills' winter storage replenishment may support prices [6][7]. - For coking coal, it should also be treated with a volatile mindset, with the coking coal index ranging from 990 - 1170. The domestic coal mine supply is expected to be weakly stable in January, and the demand may pick up slightly with the resumption of steel mills' production, but the recovery space is limited. Attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - **Price**: In December, the four rounds of coke price cuts were successively implemented, and the spot price was under pressure and fluctuated downward. As of December 31, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1450 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of November. The FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke was weakly running, at 218 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared with the end of November [15]. - **Supply**: Currently, coke enterprises' profits are negative, production enthusiasm has declined, and coke production has decreased. Steel mills' coke production has increased. In January, affected by environmental protection restrictions and with profits remaining slightly in the red, coke production is expected to be weakly stable [28]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand continued to be weak in December, steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate declined, and iron - making production decreased significantly, putting pressure on coke demand. In January, some steel mills are expected to resume production, and iron - making production is expected to increase slightly, so the demand side will improve month - on - month [31]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, coke exports were 717,800 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons month - on - month; imports were 7.5 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons month - on - month. The current import and export volume is at the median level of the same period [35]. - **Inventory**: In December, steel mills' inventory increased, and coke enterprises continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory with little pressure. In January, steel mills are expected to replenish inventory, and coke enterprises may face inventory accumulation pressure. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and the total coke inventory is at the median level of the same period. Steel mills' winter storage replenishment may support coke prices [39]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the basis of the May contract was - 99, an increase of 38 compared with the end of November; the spread between the May - September contracts was - 75.5, a decrease of 9 compared with the end of November. The basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [43]. Coking Coal - **Price**: As of December 31, the self - pick - up price of Meng 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared with the end of November. The prices of main coking coal and blending coking coal were both weakly running [48]. - **Supply**: In December, coal mine supply was at a low level in the same period over the years. After the New Year's Day holiday, coal mine supply is expected to recover, but due to weak spot prices and poor demand, production in January is expected to remain low. After New Year's Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered and is currently at a high level. Australian coal import profit has turned negative, and imports are expected to decline [53][70]. - **Demand**: In December, after the fourth round of coke price cuts, coke enterprises' profits turned from positive to negative, and their demand for coking coal weakened. In January, with the expected resumption of steel mills' production, coking coal demand may pick up, but the recovery space is limited due to the off - season of steel demand [57]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, coking coal imports were 10.73 million tons, an increase of 138,200 tons month - on - month; exports were 133,500 tons, an increase of 132,000 tons month - on - month. Current import profit is acceptable, and imports are at a relatively high level [61]. - **Inventory**: Coke enterprises' and steel mills' inventories are expected to increase due to winter storage replenishment. Coke enterprises' inventory is at a low level, and steel mills' inventory is at the median level in the same period over the years. Coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a high level. Port inventory has increased and is at the median level in the same period. The total coking coal inventory has increased [80]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the basis of the May contract was - 18, a decrease of 34 compared with the end of November; the spread between the May - September contracts was - 72, a decrease of 3 compared with the end of November. The basis and spread both weakened. The different months of coking coal show a contango structure [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61

www.mkqh.com 马棕继续累库，油脂反弹乏力 投研服务中心 2026.1 @2026 Maike Futures 核心观点 - 近期国内外油脂市场整体承压，维持震荡偏弱格局。其核心驱动在于国际市场的供应压力与疲 软需求：一方面，南美大豆产区天气良好，丰产预期持续压制市场情绪；另一方面，国际原油 价格回调削弱了生柴题材支撑，叠加节后终端采购放缓，市场交投清淡。在此背景下，棕榈油 因库存压力成为领跌品种，而豆油则因国内部分油厂停机、供应阶段性收紧，表现相对抗跌。 - 结论：整体来看，油脂板块缺乏有效利多，在宏观与基本面双重影响下重心下移，主力参考豆 油7700-8000，棕榈油8300-8600，菜籽油8900-9200。 - 风险因素：宏观风险，贸易摩擦，产区天气，产地政策等。 行情回顾：12月整体呈现震荡走弱格局 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 2024/12/09 2025/02/09 2025/04/09 2025/06/09 2025/08/09 2025/10/09 2025/12/09 国内三大油脂期价走势 DCE：棕榈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the base - rate statistics of various futures and spot commodities on December 26, 2025, including base - rate changes, monthly basis differences, contract prices, and spot prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.56%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous day. The spot price is 94,760 (SMM 1 electrolytic copper) [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract base - rate is - 0.86%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price is 21,980 (SMM A00 aluminum) [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract base - rate is 0.33%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price is 23,080 (SMM 0 zinc ingot) [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract base - rate is - 0.96%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The spot price is 17,100 (SMM 1 lead ingot) [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract base - rate is - 0.36%, an increase of 0.68% from the previous day. The spot price is 332,750 (SMM 1 tin) [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract base - rate is 1.83%, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous day. The spot price is 127,400 (SMM 1 electrolytic nickel) [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract base - rate is 5.29%, an increase of 0.30% from the previous day. The spot price is 9,250 (SMM annual flux 253 silicon) [3]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The main contract base - rate is - 3.2%, an increase of 14.15% from the previous day. The spot price is 116,750 (Steel Union's high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate) [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.57%, an increase of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,003.01 (AuT + D: Shanghai Gold Exchange) [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract base - rate is 0.10%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous day. The spot price is 17,414 (Ag(T + D): Shanghai Gold Exchange) [3]. Black Industry - Rebar (RB): The main contract base - rate is 5.21%, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,290 (HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai) [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): The main contract base - rate is 0.30%, an increase of 1.07% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,290 (Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai) [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract base - rate is 6.92%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day. The spot price is 832.4 (PB powder: 61%: Qingdao) [3]. - Coke: The main contract base - rate is - 8.28%, an increase of 0.37% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,595 (Metallurgical coke: quasi - first - class) [3]. - Coking Coal and Steam Coal (JM, ZC): The main contract base - rates are - 0.58% and 14.3% respectively. The spot prices are 1,117.5 (Main coking coal: clean coal: Mongolian No. 5) and 689.0 (Shanxi Q500: Qinhuangdao) [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SE): The main contract base - rate is - 7.41%, a decrease of 0.59% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,270 (FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia) [3]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): The main contract base - rate is - 1.30%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,770 (FeMn68Si18: Hebei) [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract base - rate is 0.46%, an increase of 0.65% from the previous day. The spot price is 13,050 (304/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi) [3]. - Glass (FG): The main contract base - rate is - 3.5%, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,010 (North China 5mm float glass market price) [3]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean: The main contract base - rate is - 4.4%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,940 (Domestic third - grade soybean: Harbin) [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract base - rate is 9.42%, a decrease of 1.65% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,020 (Ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang) [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM) and Rapeseed Oil (V): The main contract base - rates are 7.57% and 6.72% respectively. The spot prices are 2,530 (Ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong) and 8,320 (First - grade soybean oil: Zhangjiagang) [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract base - rate is 16.98%, an increase of 0.26% from the previous day. The spot price is 9,300 (Baisha peanuts: 45% oil content, 9% water content, Changtu) [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract base - rate is - 0.61%, a decrease of 0.40% from the previous day. The spot price is 8,490 (24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong) [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract base - rate is 4.61%, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,290 (National - standard first - grade corn at Huangpu Port) [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract base - rate is 3.46%, an increase of 0.41% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,570 (Factory - delivered price of corn starch: Changchun) [3]. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apple (AP): The main contract base - rate is - 6.50%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 8,600 (Average of Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan Red Fuji apples) [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract base - rate is - 1.56%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,900 (Eggs: Hebei Cangzhou) [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract base - rate is 2.97%, an increase of 0.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 11,800 (One - yuan live pigs from Henan) [3]. Soft Commodities - Cotton (CF): The main contract base - rate is 7.18%, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous day. The spot price is 15,279 (Cotton price index 328: Xinjiang) [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract base - rate is 2.87%, a decrease of 0.14% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,420 (White sugar: Liuzhou) [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract base - rate is 0.14%, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price is 2,165 (Methanol: East China) [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract base - rate is - 4.4%, an increase of 0.13% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,650 (Ethanol: East China) [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract base - rate is - 1.40%, an increase of 0.06% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,080 (PTA: East China) [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract base - rate is 8.52%, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,800 (Market price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S) [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract base - rate is 0.26%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous day. The spot price is 11111 (Styrene: East China) [3]. - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF): The main contract base - rate is 0.00%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,540 (Yifangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm) [3]. - Plastic: The main contract base - rate is 0.16%, an increase of 1.84% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,400 (Market price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042) [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract base - rate is - 5.40%, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,500 (East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream price) [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract base - rate is - 3.3%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous day. The spot price is 15,200 (Thai - produced: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [3]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): The main contract base - rate is 3.77%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous day. The spot price is 13,174 (Thai 20 standard rubber: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract base - rate is - 4.1%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,135 (Shahe heavy - quality market price) [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract base - rate is - 1.72%, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,710 (Small - particle urea: Henan) [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract base - rate is - 1.41%, an increase of 0.28% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,525 (Bleached softwood pulp: Silver Star: Chile) [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract base - rate is - 8.5%, an increase of 0.45% from the previous day. The spot price is 406.6 (Chinese Shengli: Pacific Rim) [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract base - rate is 6.42%, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,649 (Bonded marine fuel oil 380CST: Zhoushan) [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract base - rate is - 2.50%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,920 (Heavy - traffic asphalt: market price: Shandong) [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.21%, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,010 (Marine fuel oil 0.5% low - sulfur: Singapore) [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract base - rate is 11.09%, an increase of 1.39% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,528 (Market price: Guangzhou) [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract base - rate is 0.69%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,642.5 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract base - rate is - 0.04%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,032.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract base - rate is 1.23%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The spot price is 7,410.7 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are further relaxed. The coking coal and coke markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices running weakly. The mid - to long - term strategy is to adopt a bearish approach on rallies. The coke index is expected to operate in the range of 1500 - 1650, and the coking coal index in the range of 950 - 1030 - 1110 [6][8] - An important meeting will be held in mid - December, which may change market expectations and sentiment Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, raw material prices continue to decline, and coke enterprises still have positive profits, with high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the resumption of production of some overhauled coke enterprises, the coke production of coke enterprises and steel mills has increased month - on - month. As of December 5, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 64.53 tons (+0.77), and that of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 46.62 tons (+0.3), with a total output of 111.15 tons (+1.07) [7][15] Profit - After the first round of coke price cuts, the coking profit has narrowed. As of December 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 30 yuan/ton (-16) [6][19] Demand - Terminal demand is poor, steel spot prices are under pressure, steel mills' profits are poor, and the willingness to overhaul is strong. The molten iron output has declined month - on - month. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the molten iron output is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the daily average molten iron output was 232.3 tons (-2.38); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 828.95 tons (-26.76); the profitability rate of steel mills was 36.36% (+1.3); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.08% (-0.9); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.16% (-0.93) [7][23] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has increased month - on - month, and there may be some inventory accumulation pressure in the future; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month; the total coke inventory has decreased month - on - month. As of December 5, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 76.44 tons (+4.68); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 625.25 tons (-0.27); the total inventory of four major ports was 181.3 tons (-6.1), and the total coke inventory was 882.99 tons (-1.69) [7][27] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills' sample coking plants were 11.29 days (+0) [30] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1594 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 9, a decrease of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 149, an increase of 7.5 compared with last week. After the coke price cut, the spot price has fallen more, so the basis has weakened. The far - month contracts are more affected by the coking coal futures, so the spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [34] Coking Coal Supply - Some coal mines in the main production areas have resumed production. Near the end of the year, some coal mines are close to completing their production plans, and the production rhythm may slow down, resulting in a month - on - month decline in domestic coal mine supply. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal will arrive at ports successively in December, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market. As of December 5, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 190.42 tons (-0.92), with an operating rate of 85.59% (-0.42); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 27.12 tons (+0.54), with an operating rate of 36.53% (+0.21) [8][41] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased month - on - month and is at a high level [43] Demand - The coke production has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption of coking coal has increased. However, the molten iron output is still in a downward channel, and the medium - to long - term demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 857.43 tons (-3.5), with available days of 12.68 days (-0.16), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 67.62 tons (-3.5); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03), with available days of 12.88 days (-0.13), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 61.98 tons (+0.39); the total daily consumption was 129.6 tons (+0.99) [8][48] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory levels of coke enterprises and steel mills are at the median level in the same period over the years. The coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month, and there may be an inventory accumulation expectation in the future; the port inventory has increased month - on - month and is at the median level in the same period over the years. The total coking coal inventory has increased. As of December 5, the total port inventory was 296.5 tons (+2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1009.2 tons (-1.1); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 247.01 tons (+23.09); the total coking coal inventory was 2350.98 tons (+20.96) [8][55] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants were 12.68 days (-0.16); and those for 247 steel enterprises were 12.88 days (-0.13) [55] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1168 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 112, an increase of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 84, an increase of 1 compared with last week. Both the spot and futures prices of coking coal have weakened. The expected arrival of seaborne coal and the continuous weakening of demand have led to a larger decline in the futures market, so the basis has strengthened, and the spread has slightly strengthened. The coking coal contracts in different months show a contango structure, indicating that the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [59]