1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No core view is presented in the report. It mainly provides a base difference statistics table for various commodities. 3. Summary According to the Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.51%, a decrease of - 0.26% from yesterday, with a current spot price of 102,575 [3]. - Aluminum: The main contract base difference rate is - 1.12%, a decrease of - 0.82% from yesterday, and the spot price is 24,190 [3]. - Zinc: The main contract base difference rate is 1.54%, an increase of 1.62% from yesterday, and the spot price is 25,410 [3]. - Lead: The main contract base difference rate is - 1.31%, a decrease of - 0.22% from yesterday, and the spot price is 17,325 [3]. - Tin: The main contract base difference rate is - 1.62%, a decrease of - 3.04% from yesterday, and the spot price is 426,000 [3]. - Nickel: The main contract base difference rate is 1.92%, a decrease of - 1.95% from yesterday, and the spot price is 150,050 [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract base difference rate is 6.32%, a decrease of - 0.12% from yesterday, and the spot price is 9,250 [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract base difference rate is 2,732%, an increase of 2.08% from yesterday, and the spot price is 116,750 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.12%, an increase of 0.17% from yesterday, and the spot price is 1,033.92 [3]. - Silver: The main contract base difference rate is 0.08%, an increase of 0.08% from yesterday, and the spot price is 22,684 [3]. Ferrous Metals and Related Products - Rebar: The main contract base difference rate is 3.48%, a decrease of - 0.57% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,270 [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.51%, an increase of 1.18% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,290 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract base difference rate is 7.49%, an increase of 1.05% from yesterday, and the spot price is 873.9 [3]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke's main contract base difference rate is - 7.45%, a decrease of - 0.35% from yesterday, and the spot price is 1,615; coking coal's main contract base difference rate is - 7.16%, an increase of 0.70% from yesterday, and the spot price is 1,102.5 [3]. - Steam Coal: The main contract base difference rate is - 11.90%, unchanged from yesterday, and the spot price is 706.0 [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract base difference rate is - 5.35%, an increase of 1.33% from yesterday, and the spot price is 5,310 [3]. - Manganese Silicon: The main contract base difference rate is - 1.70%, an increase of 0.83% from yesterday, and the spot price is 5,770 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.10%, a decrease of - 0.28% from yesterday, and the spot price is 14,400 [3]. - Glass: The main contract base difference rate is - 6.08%, an increase of 0.86% from yesterday, and the spot price is 1,020 [3]. Grains, Oils and Oilseeds - Soybeans: The main contract base difference rate is - 7.69%, a decrease of - 0.21% from yesterday, and the spot price is 4,000 [3]. - Soybean Meal: The main contract base difference rate is 12.77%, an increase of 0.45% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,090 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The main contract base difference rate is 8.19%, a decrease of - 0.59% from yesterday, and the spot price is 2,470 [3]. - Edible Oils: The main contract base difference rate of first - grade soybean oil is 7.08%, an increase of 0.20% from yesterday, and the spot price is 8,500; the main contract base difference rate of rapeseed oil is 8.74%, a decrease of - 0.21% from yesterday, and the spot price is 9,600 [3]. - Peanuts: The main contract base difference rate is 16.13%, an increase of 0.12% from yesterday, and the spot price is 9,100 [3]. - Palm Oil: The main contract base difference rate is 0.84%, a decrease of - 0.33% from yesterday, and the spot price is 8,650 [3]. - Corn: The main contract base difference rate is 1.53%, a decrease of - 1.25% from yesterday, and the spot price is 2,330 [3]. - Corn Starch: The main contract base difference rate is 0.19%, a decrease of - 0.87% from yesterday, and the spot price is 2,570 [3]. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apples: The main contract base difference rate is - 12.82%, an increase of 1.11% from yesterday, and the spot price is 8,220 [3]. - Eggs: The main contract base difference rate is 14.16%, a decrease of - 2.24% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,500 [3]. - Pigs: The main contract base difference rate is 9.21%, an increase of 0.96% from yesterday, and the spot price is 13,050 [3]. - Cotton: The main contract base difference rate is 8.84%, an increase of 1.01% from yesterday, and the spot price is 15,972 [3]. Soft Commodities - Sugar: The main contract base difference rate is 2.08%, an increase of 0.37% from yesterday, and the spot price is 5,390 [3]. Chemicals - Methanol: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.35%, unchanged from yesterday, and the spot price is 2,265 [3]. - Ethanol: The main contract base difference rate is - 3.72%, an increase of 0.08% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,675 [3]. - PTA: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.95%, a decrease of - 0.05% from yesterday, and the spot price is 5,000 [3]. - Polypropylene: The main contract base difference rate is 3.91%, a decrease of - 0.03% from yesterday, and the spot price is 6,520 [3]. - Styrene: The main contract base difference rate is 1.86%, an increase of 0.19% from yesterday, and the spot price is 7,235 [3]. - Short - fiber: The main contract base difference rate is 2.28%, an increase of 1.20% from yesterday, and the spot price is 6,540 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract base difference rate is 4.94%, an increase of 1.86% from yesterday, and the spot price is 7,120 [3]. - PVC: The main contract base difference rate is - 3.66%, an increase of 0.20% from yesterday, and the spot price is 4,690 [3]. - Rubber: The main contract base difference rate is - 2.16%, a decrease of - 0.24% from yesterday, and the spot price is 15,650 [3]. - 20 - grade Rubber: The main contract base difference rate is 4.16%, an increase of 0.48% from yesterday, and the spot price is 13,385 [3]. - Soda Ash: The main contract base difference rate is - 4.19%, an increase of 0.72% from yesterday, and the spot price is 1,143 [3]. - Urea: The main contract base difference rate is - 2.28%, an increase of 1.25% from yesterday, and the spot price is 1,760 [3]. - Pulp: The main contract base difference rate is 2.37%, an increase of 1.08% from yesterday, and the spot price is 5,565 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The main contract base difference rate is - 4.87%, an increase of 0.10% from yesterday, and the spot price is 423.2 [3]. - Fuel Oil: The main contract base difference rate is 3.79%, a decrease of - 0.03% from yesterday, and the spot price is 2,684 [3]. - Asphalt: The main contract base difference rate is - 2.12%, an increase of 0.03% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,100 [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The main contract base difference rate is 0.60%, an increase of 1.90% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,106 [3]. - LPG: The main contract base difference rate is 19.25%, a decrease of - 0.23% from yesterday, and the spot price is 5,048 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300: The main contract base difference rate is 0.10%, an increase of 0.06% from yesterday, and the spot price is 4,751.4 [3]. - SSE 50: The main contract base difference rate is - 0.08%, a decrease of - 0.02% from yesterday, and the spot price is 3,105.6 [3]. - CSI 500: The main contract base difference rate is 0.20%, a decrease of - 0.16% from yesterday, and the spot price is 8,223.3 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content provided 3. Summary by Categories Metals - Copper: The spot price is 103,235, the主力基差率 is 0.47%, and the change from yesterday is 255 [3] - Aluminum: The spot price is 24,630, the主力基差率 is -1.00%, and the change from yesterday is -180 [3] - Zinc: The spot price is 24,115, the主力基差率 is 0.46%, and the change from yesterday is not provided [3] - Lead: The spot price is 17,490, the主力基差率 is -0.98%, and the change from yesterday is -170 [3] - Tin: The spot price is 368,550, the主力基差率 is 1.16%, and the change from yesterday is not provided [3] - Nickel: The spot price is 146,850, the主力基差率 is 3.72%, and the change from yesterday is not provided [3] - Industrial Silicon: The spot price is 9,250, the主力基差率 is 5.35%, and the change from yesterday is not provided [3] - Gold: The spot price is 1031.26, the主力基差率 is -0.41%, and the change from yesterday is -6.78 [3] - Silver: The spot price is 20,957, the主力基差率 is -0.35%, and the change from yesterday is -52 [3] Black Industry - Rebar: The spot price is 3,330, the主力基差率 is 5.21%, and the change from yesterday is 197 [3] - Hot Rolled Coil: The spot price is 3,330, the主力基差率 is -1.24%, and the change from yesterday is -30 [3] - Iron Ore: The spot price is 873.9, the主力基差率 is 6.25%, and the change from yesterday is 6.6 [3] - Coke: The spot price is 1,844.0, the主力基差率 is -7.63%, and the change from yesterday is -209.0 [3] - Coking Coal: The spot price is 1,310.5, the主力基差率 is -10.95%, and the change from yesterday is -135.5 [3] - Power Coal: The spot price is 801.4, the主力基差率 is -12.5%, and the change from yesterday is -97.4 [3] - Silicon Iron: The spot price is 5,736, the主力基差率 is -6.81%, and the change from yesterday is -186 [3] - Manganese Silicon: The spot price is 5,942, the主力基差率 is -2.70%, and the change from yesterday is -228 [3] - Stainless Steel: The spot price is 14,125, the主力基差率 is 0.32%, and the change from yesterday is -22 [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean: The spot price is 4,356, the主力基差率 is -8.17%, and the change from yesterday is -356 [3] - Soybean Meal: The spot price is 3,100, the主力基差率 is 11.11%, and the change from yesterday is 214 [3] - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price is 2,770, the主力基差率 is 7.73%, and the change from yesterday is -260 [3] - Edible Oil: - Soybean Oil: The spot price is 8,490, the主力基差率 is 6.20%, and the change from yesterday is 626 [3] - Palm Oil: The spot price is 8,650, the主力基差率 is -0.85%, and the change from yesterday is -74 [3] - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price is 9,700, the主力基差率 is 8.02%, and the change from yesterday is 720 [3] - Peanut: The spot price is 9,380, the主力基差率 is 16.93%, and the change from yesterday is 920 [3] - Corn: The spot price is 2,325, the主力基差率 is 1.53%, and the change from yesterday is 46 [3] - Corn Starch: The spot price is 2,626, the主力基差率 is -1.22%, and the change from yesterday is -26 [3] - Apple: The spot price is 9,978, the主力基差率 is -11.2%, and the change from yesterday is -1428 [3] - Egg: The spot price is 3,962, the主力基差率 is 12.58%, and the change from yesterday is -562 [3] - Live Pig: The spot price is 12,900, the主力基差率 is 9.93%, and the change from yesterday is -830 [3] - Cotton: The spot price is 15,857, the主力基差率 is -0.13%, and the change from yesterday is 1147 [3] - Sugar: The spot price is 5,390, the主力基差率 is 1.99%, and the change from yesterday is 74 [3] Chemicals - Ethanol: The spot price is 3,984, the主力基差率 is -3.99%, and the change from yesterday is 60 [3] - PTA: The spot price is 5,142, the主力基差率 is -0.82%, and the change from yesterday is 6 [3] - Polypropylene: The spot price is 6,607, the主力基差率 is -0.74%, and the change from yesterday is 243 [3] - Styrene: The spot price is 7,183, the主力基差率 is 1.36%, and the change from yesterday is 30 [3] - Short - fiber: The spot price is 6,564, the主力基差率 is 1.20%, and the change from yesterday is 16 [3] - Plastic: The spot price is 6,772, the主力基差率 is -0.21%, and the change from yesterday is 344 [3] - PVC: The spot price is 4,940, the主力基差率 is -5.67%, and the change from yesterday is -390 [3] - Rubber: The spot price is 16,130, the主力基差率 is -2.67%, and the change from yesterday is -430 [3] - 20 -号胶: The spot price is 13,195, the主力基差率 is 2.94%, and the change from yesterday is 198 [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price is 1,302, the主力基差率 is -4.04%, and the change from yesterday is -50 [3] - Urea: The spot price is 1,783, the主力基差率 is -0.89%, and the change from yesterday is 48 [3] - Pulp: The spot price is 5,578, the主力基差率 is 1.59%, and the change from yesterday is 88 [3] Energy - Crude Oil: The spot price is 445.7, the主力基差率 is -6.43%, and the change from yesterday is -36.3 [3] - Fuel Oil: The spot price is 2,602, the主力基差率 is 1.56%, and the change from yesterday is 137 [3] - Asphalt: The spot price is 3,162, the主力基差率 is -2.44%, and the change from yesterday is -82 [3] - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The spot price is 3,050, the主力基差率 is -1.46%, and the change from yesterday is -106 [3] - LPG: The spot price is 4,908, the主力基差率 is 0.69%, and the change from yesterday is 630 [3] Index - CSI 300: The spot price is 4,789.9, the主力基差率 is 0.01%, and the change from yesterday is 0.5 [3] - SSE 50: The spot price is 3,143.7, the主力基差率 is 0.11%, and the change from yesterday is 1.9 [3] - CSI 500: The spot price is 8,273.8, the主力基差率 is -0.08%, and the change from yesterday is -24.7 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report mainly presents a futures basis statistics table on January 9, 2026, including various futures varieties such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, industrial products, agricultural products, and financial futures, showing their main contract basis rates, changes compared to the previous day, current - month basis, next - month basis, etc [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): Main contract basis rate is 0.21%, up 0.86% from yesterday, spot price is 102,085 [3] - Aluminum (AL): Main contract basis rate is 0.04%, up 1.23% from yesterday, spot price is 24,000 [3] - Zinc (ZN): Main contract basis rate is 0.52%, up 0.54% from yesterday, spot price is 24,170 [3] - Lead (PB): Main contract basis rate is - 1.26%, down 0.04% from yesterday, spot price is 17,300 [3] - Tin (SN): Main contract basis rate is 0.63%, up 0.69% from yesterday, spot price is 355,050 [3] - Nickel (NI): Main contract basis rate is 4.30%, up 1.01% from yesterday, spot price is 149,050 [3] - Industrial Silicon: Main contract basis rate is 5.96%, up 2.49% from yesterday, spot price is 9,250 [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold (AU): Main contract basis rate is - 0.21%, down 0.24% from yesterday, spot price is 995.86 [3] - Silver (AG): Main contract basis rate is - 0.61%, down 1.00% from yesterday, spot price is 18,338 [3] 3.3 Industrial Products - Rebar (RB): Main contract basis rate is 5.43%, up 0.63% from yesterday, spot price is 3,340 [3] - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): Main contract basis rate is - 1.12%, down 0.76% from yesterday, spot price is 3,280 [3] - Iron Ore: Main contract basis rate is 7.90%, up 3.93% from yesterday, spot price is 877.2 [3] - Coke: Spot price is 1,615, with relevant basis data [3] - Coking Coal: Spot price is 1,097.5, with relevant basis data [3] - Steam Coal (ZC): Main contract basis rate is - 12.65%, up 0.37% from yesterday, spot price is 700 [3] - Ferrosilicon: Main contract basis rate is - 3.49, up 4.70% from yesterday, spot price is 5,470 [3] - Ferromanganese: Spot price and relevant basis data are provided [3] - Glass (FG): Main contract basis rate is - 12.30%, down 0.27% from yesterday, spot price is 1,020 [3] 3.4 Agricultural Products - Soybean: Main contract basis rate is - 8.82%, up 0.35% from yesterday, spot price is 4,000 [3] - Soybean Meal: Spot price is 3,110, with relevant basis data [3] - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Main contract basis rate is 7.72%, up 1.06% from yesterday, spot price is 2,540 [3] - Soybean Oil (Y): Main contract basis rate is 6.87%, up 0.56% from yesterday, spot price is 8,490 [3] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): Main contract basis rate is 8.31%, down 0.54% from yesterday, spot price is 9,700 [3] - Peanut (PK): Main contract basis rate is 15.59%, up 0.37% from yesterday, spot price is 9,300 [3] - Palm Oil: Main contract basis rate is 0.09%, unchanged from yesterday, spot price is 8,620 [3] - Corn (C): Main contract basis rate is 1.94%, down 0.82% from yesterday, spot price is 2,310 [3] - Corn Starch (CS): Main contract basis rate is 0.94%, down 0.32% from yesterday, spot price is 2,570 [3] - Apple (AP): Main contract basis rate is - 10.2%, up 0.49% from yesterday, spot price is 8,220 [3] - Egg (JD): Main contract basis rate is 9.67%, up 0.07% from yesterday, spot price is 3,300 [3] - Live Pig (LH): Main contract basis rate is 10.07%, down 0.24% from yesterday, spot price is 12,900 [3] 3.5 Soft Commodities - Cotton (CF): Main contract basis rate is 8.49%, up 3.51% from yesterday, spot price is 15,992 [3] - Sugar: Spot price is 5,390, with relevant basis data [3] 3.6 Chemicals - Methanol (MA): Main contract basis rate is 0.85%, down 1.05% from yesterday, spot price is 2,250 [3] - Ethanol (EG): Main contract basis rate is - 3.93, with relevant basis data [3] - PTA: Main contract basis rate is - 0.51%, up 0.27% from yesterday, spot price is 5,060 [3] - Styrene (EB): Main contract basis rate is 1.51%, up 0.82% from yesterday, spot price is 6,910 [3] - Short - fiber (PF): Main contract basis rate is 1.51%, up 1.27% from yesterday, spot price is 6,570 [3] - Plastic: Main contract basis rate is 2.60%, up 2.47% from yesterday, spot price is 6,800 [3] - PVC (V): Main contract basis rate is - 4.38, up 1.09% from yesterday, spot price is 4,690 [3] - Rubber (RU): Main contract basis rate is - 1.679, up 0.98% from yesterday, spot price is 15,850 [3] - 20 - grade Rubber (NR): Main contract basis rate is 2.61%, up 0.06% from yesterday, spot price is 13,406 [3] - Soda Ash (SA): Main contract basis rate is - 3.23%, down 0.08% from yesterday, spot price is 1,199 [3] - Urea (UR): Main contract basis rate is - 1.46%, up 0.77% from yesterday, spot price is 1,750 [3] - Pulp (SP): Main contract basis rate is 1.47%, up 1.67% from yesterday, spot price is 2,585 [3] 3.7 Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): Main contract basis rate is - 6.42%, down 0.57% from yesterday, spot price is 389.5 [3] - Fuel Oil (FU): Main contract basis rate is 5.10%, down 3.85 from yesterday, spot price is 2,583 [3] - Asphalt (BU): Main contract basis rate is - 1.989, up 0.87% from yesterday, spot price is 3,070 [3] - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Main contract basis rate is - 0.71%, down 3.45 from yesterday, spot price is 2,908 [3] 3.8 Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): Main contract basis rate is 0.41%, down 0.09% from yesterday, spot price is 4,737.7 [3] - SSE 50 (IH): Main contract basis rate is - 0.01%, down 0.05% from yesterday, spot price is 3,122.1 [3] - CSI 500 (IC): Main contract basis rate is 1.03%, up 0.10% from yesterday, spot price is 7,894.5 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on January 8, 2026, including the main contract basis rate, its change compared to the previous day, the basis of the current month, the next month, and the month after the next, as well as the contract prices and spot prices of different varieties [3]. 3. Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper's main contract basis rate is - 0.65%, a decrease of 1.01% from the previous day; aluminum's is - 1.19%, down 0.50%; zinc's is - 0.02%, down 0.87%; tin's is - 0.06%, down 0.11%; nickel's is 3.29%, down 1.59%; industrial silicon's is 3.47%, down 0.64%; lithium carbonate's is 17.50%, down 3.27 [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's main contract basis rate is 0.03%, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day; silver's is 0.39%, an increase of 0.17% [3]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Steel products like rebar have a main contract basis rate of 4.80%, down 0.31%; hot - rolled coil's is - 0.36%, up 0.65%; iron ore's is 3.96%, down 2.14; coke's is - 9.48, down 3.43; coking coal's is - 5.7%, down 7.67; power coal's is - 1303%, up 0.37% [3]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Soybean oil's main contract basis rate is 6.31%, down 0.62%; rapeseed oil's is 8.85%, up 0.42%; peanut's is 15.21%, down 1.38%; palm oil's is 0.09%, down 0.73% [3]. - **Grains**: Corn's main contract basis rate is 2.76%, down 1.20%; corn starch's is 1.26%, down 1.50% [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Apple's main contract basis rate is - 10.78%, up 0.29%; egg's is 9.60%, up 2.93%; live pig's is 10.31%, up 0.66%; cotton's is 4.98%, down 0.78% [3]. Chemicals - **General Chemicals**: Methanol's main contract basis rate is 1.90%, up 1.26%; ethylene glycol's is - 3.84, down 0.25%; PTA's is - 0.78%, up 0.39%; polypropylene's is 4.84%, down 1.03%; styrene's is 0.69%, down 0.25%; polyester staple fiber's is 0.24%, down 0.34% [3]. - **Plastics and Rubbers**: Plastic's main contract basis rate is 0.12%, down 0.65%; PVC's is - 5.41, up 0.20%; natural rubber's is - 2.66, down 0.17%; 20 - number rubber's is 2.55%, down 0.18% [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Soda ash's main contract basis rate is - 3.15%, up 0.21%; urea's is - 2.23%, down 0.66%; pulp's is - 0.20%, up 0.73% [3]. Energy - **Fossil Fuels**: Crude oil's main contract basis rate is - 5.86, up 0.74%; fuel oil's is 8.95%, up 1.97%; asphalt's is - 2.85, down 0.49%; low - sulfur fuel oil's is 2.73%, up 3.60%; LPG's is 14.98%, up 0.19% [3]. Stock Index Futures - The main contract basis rate of CSI 300 is 0.50%, an increase of 0.23%; SSE 50's is 0.04%, an increase of 0.14%; CSI 500's is 0.93%, an increase of 0.57% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by international trade policies and supply - demand dynamics. The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure, and the domestic soybean and bean -粕 markets are in a state of high inventory and structural shortage expectations. The protein -粕 market will oscillate, with the bean -粕 05 contract ranging from 2700 - 2870 [6]. - The rapeseed -粕 market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly disturbed by news related to imported rapeseed supply. Rapeseed -粕 mainly follows the protein -粕 market trend, with potential for a stronger performance but also risks of mood reversal. The 05 contract is expected to be in the range of 2300 - 2450 [45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean and Bean -粕 Market 3.1.1 International Situation - China maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, and commercial purchases are still difficult. The progress of China's soybean purchases from the US is slower than expected, and the optimistic sentiment for exports is cooling. The focus of the January USDA report is whether US soybean exports will be adjusted downward, which could lead to an increase in the stock - to - consumption ratio. The CBOT soybean futures are oscillating downward [6]. - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, and harvesting has begun in some areas. There is no weather premium on the futures, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, and the spot supply of bean -粕 from oil mills is still relatively abundant. Downstream feed enterprises have high inventories and limited demand, with average pick - up. Oil mill bean -粕 inventories continue to accumulate and remain at a high level [6]. - In the first quarter, the forward supply gap of imported soybeans in China has been partially repaired, but the soybean purchase plan from the US needs to be observed. The expectation of tightened customs policies for arriving ships has caused temporary supply concerns, but given the high inventories of soybeans and bean -粕, there is a risk of a reversal in market sentiment [6]. 3.1.3 Price and Cost - The USDA's December report predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production will be 422.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year; the demand for soybean crushing will be 365.24 million tons, an increase of 7.04 million tons; and the export volume will be 187 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons. The final inventory will be 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons. The supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly [8]. - The price of imported soybeans is affected by the futures price, premium, and shipping costs. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the inverse relationship between the futures price and the premium [17]. 3.1.4 Purchase and Inventory - As of December 30, the purchase progress for the December 2025 shipment was 100%, 99.33% for January 2026, 82.82% for February 2026, and 77.47% for March 2026 [27]. - As of December 26, the oil mill bean -粕 inventory was 116.75 million tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous month and a 47.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The physical inventory of bean -粕 in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, a 13.54% increase from the end of the previous month and an 11.97% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. 3.1.5 Oil Mill Operations - In December 2025, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 9.0675 million tons, a 0.55% increase from the previous month and a 9.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The annual soybean crushing volume in 2025 was 101.728 million tons, a 6.35% increase compared to the previous year [31]. 3.2 Rapeseed -粕 Market 3.2.1 International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures oscillated at a low level. Trading was light before the New Year's Day holiday. The futures declined slightly due to the pressure of a bumper rapeseed harvest during the week and were supported by the rise in the vegetable oil market on the weekend. The settlement price of the main rapeseed futures contract on the weekend was 603.9 Canadian dollars, a 7.6 - Canadian - dollar decrease from the previous week, a 1.2% decline, and a 20.1 - Canadian - dollar decrease compared to the previous year, a 3.2% decline [45]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Canada's insistence on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has led to no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. There are basically no new purchase orders for Canadian rapeseed, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed -粕 in oil mills are at a low level. Rapeseed crushing plants are mostly shut down. As the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed -粕 in feed decreases, and market trading volume is limited, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [45]. - China is actively seeking alternative imports of rapeseed -粕 from multiple sources, and relevant news will have a significant impact on the futures [45]. 3.2.3 Policy Impact - The preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed maintains a 75.8% deposit for exporters, closing the window for importing Canadian rapeseed. This will significantly increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed, reducing import willingness, tightening the domestic rapeseed industry supply chain, and changing the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the rapeseed -粕 market [46]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - As of the first week, the rapeseed crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed -粕 production was 0 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed -粕 in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and there was no trading in the rapeseed -粕 market [61][64]. - As of the first week, the oil mill rapeseed -粕 inventory was 0 tons, the granular rapeseed -粕 inventory was 16.7 million tons, and the consumption was 0.8 million tons [69]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The bean -粕 05 contract basis was 296 yuan/ton, compared to 311 yuan/ton the previous week. The bean -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 101 yuan/ton, compared to - 106 yuan/ton the previous week [39]. - The rapeseed -粕 05 contract basis was 119 yuan/ton, compared to 93 yuan/ton the previous week. The rapeseed -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 47 yuan/ton, compared to - 59 yuan/ton the previous week [75]. - The soybean oil - to - bean -粕 ratio was 2.85, compared to 2.82 the previous week. The spread between the main contracts of bean -粕 and rapeseed -粕 was 393 yuan/ton, compared to 399 yuan/ton the previous week [82].

Report Title - Glass and soda ash cost support moves down, and the futures market fluctuates at the bottom [1] Report Date - December 29, 2025 [1] Glass Core View - **Attention Events**: Glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot price [5] - **Supply**: Last week, float glass production was 1.084 million tons (-0.19), and the national float glass operating rate was 73.89% (-0.1). One production line was cold - repaired last week, and glass production decreased month - on - month. Weakening profits and high inventory may lead to cold - repair expectations [6][15]. - **Demand**: On December 15, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 9.7 days (-0.4), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 21.6159 million weight boxes (+228,000). Year - end demand weakened, real estate was weak, and downstream orders were still weak year - on - year. There is seasonal year - end restocking demand [6][19]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes (+650,000); Hubei factory inventory was 5.81 million weight boxes (+265,000); Shahe factory inventory was 4.3176 million weight boxes (+431,200); Shahe trader inventory was 4.2 million weight boxes (-240,000). Mid - and downstream restocking slowed, mid - stream inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased [6][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, glass cost was stable with a slight increase, and profit declined. The weekly average cost of float glass with natural gas as fuel was 1,344 yuan/ton (+0); with coal - made gas as fuel was 1,030 yuan/ton (+4); with petroleum coke as fuel was 1,070 yuan/ton (+0) [34]. - **Conclusion and View**: Glass demand drives the futures market down. High upstream inventory exerts downward pressure. Rising warehouse receipts may also pressure the market. With weakening coal prices, glass cost is expected to decline. Adopt a fluctuating view, with the glass index operating in the range of 960 - 1,040 [6]. Soda Ash Core View - **Attention Events**: Alkali factory maintenance, alkali factory inventory accumulation, and glass production [7] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 711,900 tons (-9,500), including light soda ash production of 326,300 tons (-4,800) and heavy soda ash production of 385,600 tons (-4,700). Weakening prices increase alkali factory maintenance willingness, and long - term supply pressure is high due to new capacity. Short - term production is under pressure [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 243,015 tons (-0.08), and the weekly apparent demand for soda ash was 772,700 tons (+56,300). Photovoltaic and float glass production decreased, and float glass cold - repair expectations increased, pressuring soda ash demand. Heavy soda ash demand is expected to weaken, while light soda ash demand is relatively stable [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons (-60,800), including light soda ash inventory of 735,500 tons (+7,900) and heavy soda ash inventory of 703,000 tons (-68,700). Short - term inventory accumulation pressure has eased, but long - term supply increase expectations require caution [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: According to Steel Union, last week, soda ash cost declined, and profit increased. The current cost support for light soda ash by the joint - alkali method in East China is around 1,210 yuan [7]. - **Conclusion and View**: Adopt a fluctuating view, with the soda ash index operating in the range of 1,100 - 1,190. Pay attention to cost support, and with weakening coal prices, soda ash cost is expected to decline [7]. Glass Price - As of December 26, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1,010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Central China, it was 1,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream market glass price is weak [11]. Soda Ash Price - As of December 26, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,141 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The mainstream market light soda ash price is weak, while the heavy soda ash price fluctuates strongly [47]. Glass and Soda Ash Basis and Spread - **Glass**: As of December 26, the glass 01 basis was - 47, a week - on - week decrease of 36; the glass 5 - 9 contract spread was - 103, a week - on - week decrease of 6. The glass spot price weakened, and the basis and spread both weakened [42]. - **Soda Ash**: As of December 26, the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 59, a week - on - week decrease of 13; the soda ash 5 - 9 contract spread was - 58, a week - on - week increase of 2. The soda ash spot price was strong, the basis weakened, and the spread strengthened [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Treat with an oscillating and slightly bullish mindset, with the glass index reference range of 1010 - 1150 [6] - Soda Ash: Adopt a bearish approach when the price is high, with the soda ash index reference range of 1100 - 1250 [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The supply has weakened, and attention should be paid to whether it can drive mid - and downstream replenishment, which may support the glass price in the short term [6]. - Soda Ash: The willingness of soda ash plants to conduct maintenance has increased, leading to a short - term decline in supply. However, there is still a long - term production capacity investment pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of December 31, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the end of November; in Central China, it was 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the end of November. The mainstream market glass prices are running weakly [12]. Supply - Currently, the glass price is falling, the glass factory profit is weakening, and the inventory is high, leading to continuous cold repairs. The current daily melting volume of glass factories is 151,500 tons. The supply - demand pattern has improved due to the weakening supply, which may support the price [18]. Demand - In real estate, in November 2025, the completed area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6363 million square meters; the sales area was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6805 million square meters. The year - end real estate completion has improved slightly, but the sales are poor, and the completion may be better than the previous period but worse than the same period last year [22]. - In the automotive industry, in November 2025, the automobile production was 3.5316 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.1729 million vehicles; the sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.1069 million vehicles, which supports the glass demand [26]. - The year - end rush - to - work demand has weakened month - on - month, the sales pressure in the north is obvious, and the glass demand is difficult to have a large upward space due to the weak real estate. The downstream deep - processing order days are still weak year - on - year, and the glass apparent demand is at a low level in the same period over the years [30]. Inventory - In December, although the demand was poor, the inventory pressure of glass factories was relieved and the inventory decreased due to the decline in supply. The inventory of mid - stream traders is at a high level, and the subsequent replenishment strength may be limited [34]. Profit and Cost - The costs of glass produced with natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke have declined, and the glass spot price has weakened. The profits of the three production methods have fluctuated. The profit of glass produced with natural gas decreased from - 227.27 yuan/ton to - 186.4 yuan/ton; with coal, from 4.5 yuan/ton to - 21.88 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, from - 31.48 yuan/ton to - 7.21 yuan/ton [38]. Basis - As of December 31, the glass 05 basis was - 87, a decrease of 16 compared to the end of November; the glass 5 - 9 contract spread was - 104, a decrease of 51 compared to the end of November. The spot price has weakened more, the basis has weakened, and the month - spread has weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market has a pessimistic view on the near - term contracts [42]. Soda Ash Price - As of December 31, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the end of November; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the end of November. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are running weakly [48]. Supply - The spot price of soda ash has weakened, and the willingness of soda ash plants to conduct maintenance has increased. The soda ash production in December decreased. There will be new production capacity put into operation in the first quarter of this year, so there is a large long - term supply pressure. Currently, the price is low, and the plants are in a loss state, so the short - term production is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly production of soda ash in January will fluctuate around 700,000 tons [52]. Demand - In December, the production of photovoltaic glass was stable, while the production of float glass decreased month - on - month. Currently, the profit of glass factories is poor, and there is an expectation of cold repairs for float glass in January, which puts pressure on the soda ash demand. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to weaken, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable [58]. Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of soda ash was 253 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84 tons; the export volume was 189,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,100 tons. The domestic soda ash supply - demand is loose, and exports will help relieve the inventory pressure of domestic soda ash plants [62]. Inventory - In December, the inventory of soda ash plants decreased month - on - month. Although there is still an expectation of glass production reduction, considering the price decline, the soda ash production will continue to run weakly and stably. It is expected that the inventory of soda ash plants will decline slightly in January, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of soda ash plants [65]. Cost - In December, the cost of soda ash was running weakly. The supply concentration of soda ash plants is high, and they have strong bargaining power. The cost support of the light soda ash co - production method in East China is around 1200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the cost support [69]. Profit - The price of soda ash is weak, and the cost is running weakly. The profits of soda ash plants fluctuate. In North China, using the ammonia - soda process, the gross profit of light soda ash decreased from - 38.5 yuan/ton to - 57.4 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash decreased from - 118.5 yuan/ton to - 137.4 yuan/ton. In East China, using the co - production method, the gross profit of light soda ash increased from - 140 yuan/ton to - 28.5 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash increased from - 220 yuan/ton to - 88.5 yuan/ton [72]. Month - spread - As of December 31, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 87, a decrease of 20 compared to the end of November; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 65, an increase of 3 compared to the end of November. The spot price is running weakly, the basis has weakened, and the month - spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market has a pessimistic view on the near - term contracts [76].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For coke, it should be treated with a volatile mindset, with the coke index ranging from 1530 - 1750. The supply is expected to be weakly stable in January, demand will improve month - on - month, and steel mills' winter storage replenishment may support prices [6][7]. - For coking coal, it should also be treated with a volatile mindset, with the coking coal index ranging from 990 - 1170. The domestic coal mine supply is expected to be weakly stable in January, and the demand may pick up slightly with the resumption of steel mills' production, but the recovery space is limited. Attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - **Price**: In December, the four rounds of coke price cuts were successively implemented, and the spot price was under pressure and fluctuated downward. As of December 31, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1450 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of November. The FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke was weakly running, at 218 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared with the end of November [15]. - **Supply**: Currently, coke enterprises' profits are negative, production enthusiasm has declined, and coke production has decreased. Steel mills' coke production has increased. In January, affected by environmental protection restrictions and with profits remaining slightly in the red, coke production is expected to be weakly stable [28]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand continued to be weak in December, steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate declined, and iron - making production decreased significantly, putting pressure on coke demand. In January, some steel mills are expected to resume production, and iron - making production is expected to increase slightly, so the demand side will improve month - on - month [31]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, coke exports were 717,800 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons month - on - month; imports were 7.5 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons month - on - month. The current import and export volume is at the median level of the same period [35]. - **Inventory**: In December, steel mills' inventory increased, and coke enterprises continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory with little pressure. In January, steel mills are expected to replenish inventory, and coke enterprises may face inventory accumulation pressure. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and the total coke inventory is at the median level of the same period. Steel mills' winter storage replenishment may support coke prices [39]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the basis of the May contract was - 99, an increase of 38 compared with the end of November; the spread between the May - September contracts was - 75.5, a decrease of 9 compared with the end of November. The basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [43]. Coking Coal - **Price**: As of December 31, the self - pick - up price of Meng 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared with the end of November. The prices of main coking coal and blending coking coal were both weakly running [48]. - **Supply**: In December, coal mine supply was at a low level in the same period over the years. After the New Year's Day holiday, coal mine supply is expected to recover, but due to weak spot prices and poor demand, production in January is expected to remain low. After New Year's Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered and is currently at a high level. Australian coal import profit has turned negative, and imports are expected to decline [53][70]. - **Demand**: In December, after the fourth round of coke price cuts, coke enterprises' profits turned from positive to negative, and their demand for coking coal weakened. In January, with the expected resumption of steel mills' production, coking coal demand may pick up, but the recovery space is limited due to the off - season of steel demand [57]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, coking coal imports were 10.73 million tons, an increase of 138,200 tons month - on - month; exports were 133,500 tons, an increase of 132,000 tons month - on - month. Current import profit is acceptable, and imports are at a relatively high level [61]. - **Inventory**: Coke enterprises' and steel mills' inventories are expected to increase due to winter storage replenishment. Coke enterprises' inventory is at a low level, and steel mills' inventory is at the median level in the same period over the years. Coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a high level. Port inventory has increased and is at the median level in the same period. The total coking coal inventory has increased [80]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the basis of the May contract was - 18, a decrease of 34 compared with the end of November; the spread between the May - September contracts was - 72, a decrease of 3 compared with the end of November. The basis and spread both weakened. The different months of coking coal show a contango structure [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic and international oil markets have been under pressure recently, maintaining a weak and volatile pattern. The core drivers are the supply pressure and weak demand in the international market. South American soybean production areas have favorable weather, and expectations of a bumper harvest continue to suppress market sentiment. The decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the support for the biodiesel theme, and post - holiday terminal procurement has slowed down, leading to light market trading. Against this backdrop, palm oil has become the leading decliner due to inventory pressure, while soybean oil has shown relative resistance as some domestic oil mills have shut down, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [2]. - Overall, the oil sector lacks effective positive factors. Under the dual influence of macro and fundamental factors, its center of gravity is shifting downward. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7700 - 8000 for soybean oil, 8300 - 8600 for palm oil, and 8900 - 9200 for rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last month, the domestic oil futures market showed a weak and volatile pattern. Affected by factors such as seasonal production increases in international palm oil production areas, ample supply of related vegetable oils, and the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment was bearish. Although there was a temporary restocking demand on the domestic consumption side, which supported prices to some extent, there was insufficient upward momentum. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with palm oil showing a relatively significant decline due to external market influence. The oil sector continued its adjustment trend under the loose supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.829 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%, higher than the market's expected seasonal flat or slight increase. The high inventory level will continue to limit the rebound space of palm oil prices. As of the end of November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 2.51 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 10.8% [10]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 9.3%. Weak exports were mainly due to sufficient inventories and low procurement willingness in major importing countries and intensified competition from Indonesia. However, in December, according to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 28.4% month - on - month [14][18]. - **Import and Arrival**: As of December 31, there were a total of 10 palm oil purchase vessels, with 6 vessels for January shipment and the rest for December - January. There were no new cancelations. The arrival volume at the end of the year was sufficient. Import profits were mostly in deep inversion, which suppressed new procurement by traders [21]. - **Domestic Inventory and Trading**: As of the end of December 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 205,700 tons. The total trading volume of palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 13,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 590.9 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [25]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the palm oil futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis in each region declined significantly. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 89.01% month - on - month, and the spot spread decreased by 79.78% month - on - month [29]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **International Soybean Situation**: The US government shutdown caused the USDA to miss the October report. The November report after the shutdown was cautious in adjusting the yield forecast, and the December report did not adjust the balance sheet as usual. The USDA's January production - determining report will be crucial for the 2025/2026 US soybean production and supply - demand situation. Last month, US soybean export sales were generally lackluster, and the market's focus has shifted to the planting intentions and weather of the new US soybean season [32][36]. - **Import Premium**: Last month, the international soybean premium quotes showed a divergent trend. The premium of US soybeans (US Gulf) was stable and slightly stronger, while that of South American soybeans (Brazil/Argentina) was generally under pressure [39]. - **Domestic Inventory and Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.089 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,500 tons. Some oil mills shut down due to a shortage of soybeans, causing the soybean oil inventory to gradually decline [43]. - **Spot Basis and Trading**: In December, the domestic soybean oil spot price was in a weak and volatile trend. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The spot basis was stable and slightly weak. The total trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic oil mills increased compared to the previous month [47]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Trade Situation**: China is actively diversifying its sources of rapeseed imports. The trade between China and Canada regarding rapeseed is in a state of uncertainty, with potential trade - related risks [51]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December, the total rapeseed oil inventory in major regions was 285,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The basis was strong, and the market is expected to show a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term [55].