Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Supply pressure is rising as the output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbs. The weekly output of float glass last week was 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.63% (-0.05). - Downstream demand is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The number of downstream deep - processing factory order days on July 15 was 9.3 days (-0.2). However, the speculative demand has increased due to the rising market, and the apparent demand for glass has increased month - on - month. The weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000). - The inventory of glass factories decreased last week driven by speculative demand. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000). - The cost of glass decreased last week, while the profit increased. - The domestic anti - involution sentiment is high, and the bullish sentiment is strong, pushing the market to continue rising. There is strong supply pressure in the future. Short - term speculative demand drives the inventory reduction of glass factories. It is recommended to focus on short - term long ideas, and pay attention to the glass index operating range of 1090 - 1200 - 1250. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - The maintenance of soda ash plants has ended, and the production of soda ash is gradually recovering. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600). - The production of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined and will continue to decline, leading to a downward expectation for the demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons. - The inventory of soda ash plants rebounded from a high level last week. With the recovery of supply and the implementation of photovoltaic production cuts, the inventory accumulation trend of soda ash plants is difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500). - According to Steel Union, the cost of soda ash increased slightly last week, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240. - The supply of soda ash is gradually recovering, while the production of glass has significantly weakened, putting pressure on the demand side. There is strong inventory accumulation pressure in the long term. Currently, the macro - sentiment has a large impact on the market. It is advisable to wait and see for now. After the sentiment fades, pay attention to the idea of shorting on rallies. The operating range of the soda ash index is 1220 - 1350. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbed, with the weekly output of float glass last week at 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate at 75.63% (-0.05) [11][13]. Demand - Speculative demand drove the apparent demand to increase month - on - month, while the number of deep - processing order days decreased month - on - month. On July 15, the number of downstream deep - processing factory order days was 9.3 days (-0.2), and downstream demand was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The rising market drove up speculative demand, and the weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000) [15][17]. Inventory - Short - term speculative demand rebounded, driving the inventory reduction of glass factories. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises last week was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000) [19][20]. Cost and Profit - The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1442 yuan/ton (-1); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1004 yuan/ton (-7); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1053 yuan/ton (-27). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 178.9 yuan/ton (+4.21); using coal - made gas as fuel was 121.83 yuan/ton (+13.05); using petroleum coke as fuel was - 4.76 yuan/ton (+45.71) [29][31][35]. Basis and Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the glass 01 basis was - 125, the glass 05 basis was - 200, and the glass 09 basis was - 41. The basis had a weak driving force on the market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 84, and the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 75. There were no calendar spread opportunities [40][44]. Soda Ash Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants ended, and the production of soda ash gradually recovered. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600) [51][53]. Demand - The production of photovoltaic glass significantly declined, putting pressure on the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons, and the apparent demand for soda ash last week was 691000 tons (+36000), including 364200 tons of heavy soda ash apparent demand (+31500) and 326800 tons of light soda ash apparent demand (+4500) [55][58][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants increased month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation trend was difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500) [64][66]. Profit and Cost - The cost increased slightly, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240 [71][72]. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of July 18, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 59, the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 100, and the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis had a weak driving force, and it was advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 49, and the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 41. There were no calendar spread opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 100, the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 66, and the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 135. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea [79][83][88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed table of the basis rate statistics for various futures on July 22, 2025, including the basis rate, change from the previous day, monthly basis, and contract prices for different commodities across multiple sectors such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.41%, down 0.04% from the previous day, with a current month basis of 325 and a spot price of 79,555 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.25% from the previous day, current month basis is 110, and spot price is 20,890 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is 0.15%, up 0.06% from the previous day, current month basis is 70, and spot price is 22,820 [4]. - Tin (SN): Basis rate is 0.61%, up 0.01% from the previous day, current month basis is 1630, and spot price is 267,200 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 0.95%, down 0.09% from the previous day, current month basis is 1160, and spot price is 122,850 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Basis rate is 4.28%, down 1.73% from the previous day, current month basis is 415, and spot price is 9500 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Basis rate is - 4.14%, down 0.04% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2880, and spot price is 68,020 [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.60%, down 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2.32, and spot price is 777.00 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.49%, up 0.18% from the previous day, current month basis is - 16, and spot price is 9226 [4]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 5.41%, up 3.12% from the previous day, current month basis is - 27.7, and spot price is 484.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 4.30%, down 0.72% from the previous day, current month basis is 126, and spot price is 3050 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 5.41%, up 0.90% from the previous day, current month basis is 198, and spot price is 3855 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is 2.30%, up 1.65% from the previous day, current month basis is 82, and spot price is 3685 [4]. - LPG (PG): Basis rate is 10.14%, down 0.84% from the previous day, current month basis is 464, and spot price is 4498 [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: Basis rate is - 5.69%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 239, and spot price is 3960 [4]. - Bean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 5.83%, down 0.40% from the previous day, current month basis is - 179, and spot price is 2890 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is - 3.19%, up 0.19% from the previous day, current month basis is - 87, and spot price is 2640 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 0.00%, down 0.26% from the previous day, current month basis is 0, and spot price is 2320 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 16, and spot price is 2680 [4]. - Apple (AP): Basis rate is - 1.55%, down 0.50% from the previous day, current month basis is - 123, and spot price is 7800 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is - 12.54%, down 1.00% from the previous day, current month basis is - 456, and spot price is 3180 [4]. - Live Pigs (LH): Basis rate is 0.24%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is not clear, and spot price is 14,400 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 9.90%, up 1.22% from the previous day, current month basis is 1404, and spot price is 15,589 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 4.81%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 281, and spot price is 6120 [4]. Others - Rebar (RB): Basis rate is 3.29%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is 106, and spot price is 3330 [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.06%, down 0.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 36, and spot price is 3430 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.64%, unchanged from the previous day, current month basis is 36.5, and spot price is 821.5 [4]. - Coke: Basis rate is - 7.93%, down 0.20% from the previous day, current month basis is - 127.1, and spot price is 1476 [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): Basis rate is 9.34%, down 9.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 94.0, and spot price is 1100.0 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 6.32%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is - 358, and spot price is 5310 [4]. - Manganese Ore (SM): Basis rate is - 1.08%, down 1.87% from the previous day, current month basis is - 64, and spot price is 5850 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is - 0.43%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is - 25, and spot price is 12,850 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 6.71% from the previous day, current month basis is 7, and spot price is 1180 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is 0.89%, down 0.80% from the previous day, current month basis is 22, and spot price is 2433 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.47%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 65, and spot price is 4475 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is 0.21%, down 0.34% from the previous day, current month basis is 10, and spot price is 4790 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 3.23%, down 1.15% from the previous day, current month basis is 229, and spot price is 7320 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is 0.91%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 137, and spot price is 7560 [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): Basis rate is 3.39%, down 0.97% from the previous day, current month basis is 218, and spot price is 6650 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is - 0.55%, down 1.02% from the previous day, current month basis is - 40, and spot price is 7250 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 5.61%, down 3.87% from the previous day, current month basis is 287, and spot price is 5405 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 0.30%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 45, and spot price is 14,850 [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 1.31%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 167, and spot price is 12,917 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 0.77%, up 0.05% from the previous day, current month basis is - 10, and spot price is 1285 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is 1.55%, down 2.18% from the previous day, current month basis is 28, and spot price is 1840 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 11.78%, down 0.89% from the previous day, current month basis is 629, and spot price is 5963 [4]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.51%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 11.0, and spot price is 4085.6 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is 0.04%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 1.2, and spot price is 2772.2 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 1.75%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 54.7, and spot price is 6161.3 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views Coke - Coke's third round of price cuts has been implemented, with another round expected. Due to profit decline and environmental inspections, coke production has decreased. With the off - season of steel demand, iron - water production will continue to decline, weakening coke demand. All inventory levels of coke decreased last week. Considering cost factors, a bullish view on pullbacks is recommended, with the coke index expected to range between 1300 - 1410 [2]. Coking Coal - Environmental inspections in the "Sanxi" region have led to a five - week decline in coal mine production and a significant drop in coal washery output, providing some support to the market. In the long - term, coking coal demand is under pressure as iron - water production declines. Upstream inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. A bullish view on pullbacks is recommended, with the coking coal index expected to range between 740 - 840 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Coke's third - round price cut has been implemented, and another cut is expected. Due to profit decline and environmental inspections in some areas, coke production has decreased. As of June 13, the daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.04 million tons (-1.48), and that of 247 steel - mill coking plants was 47.24 million tons (-0.06), with a total output of 112.28 million tons (-1.54) [15]. Profit - After the third - round price cut, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises was -46 yuan/ton (-27) as of June 13 [19]. Demand - Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. With the off - season of steel demand, iron - water production will maintain a downward trend, weakening coke demand. As of June 13, the daily iron - water production was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [23]. Inventory - Traders actively reduced inventory. Last week, all inventory levels of coke decreased. As of June 13, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 125.71 million tons (-1.3), that of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the total inventory of four major ports was 203.09 million tons (-11.06), with a total coke inventory of 971.64 million tons (-15.32) [27]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel - mill coking plants increased slightly to 11.62 days (+0.04) as of June 13 [31]. Coke Basis - As of June 13, the warehouse - folded unit price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1304 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was -63, the May contract was -78, and the September contract was -46, indicating weak basis drivers [34]. Coke Calendar Spread - As of June 13, the September - January contract spread was -17, and the January - May contract spread was -15 [38]. Coking Coal Supply - Recently, there have been significant disturbances in the coking coal supply. In June, due to safety production month and stricter environmental inspections in the "Sanxi" region, some coal washeries stopped production and coal mine shipments were suspended. As of June 13, the daily output of 523 sample coal mines was 187.77 million tons (-2.11), with an operating rate of 83.71% (-0.94); the daily output of coal washeries was 47.79 tons (-3.67), with an operating rate of 57.36% (-3.23) [43]. Mongolian Coal Clearance - The clearance volume of Mongolian coal increased month - on - month [45]. Demand - Due to the decline in coking enterprise profits and coke production, coking coal demand support is weakening. In the long - term, coking coal demand will weaken as iron - water production declines. As of June 13, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 669.53 million tons (-21.32), with available days of 9.65 days (-0.13), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 69.38 million tons (-1.26); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), with available days of 12.32 days (+0.06), and the converted daily consumption was 62.82 million tons (-0.06), with a total daily consumption of 132.2 million tons (-1.31) [50]. Coal Washery Inventory - As of June 13, the raw coal inventory of coal washeries was 336.13 million tons (+8.72), and the clean coal inventory was 251.47 million tons (+6.41) [54]. Inventory - Upstream coking coal inventory is at a high level. The inventory of coking enterprises decreased, while that of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased slightly. As of June 13, the total port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 798.07 million tons (-20.85); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample coal mines was 486.04 million tons (+5.31) [61]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of coking enterprises decreased to 9.65 days (-0.31), while that of 247 steel enterprises increased slightly to 12.32 days (+0.06) as of June 13 [61]. Coking Coal Basis - As of June 13, the warehouse - folded unit price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was 793 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was 5, the May contract was -20, and the September contract was 18 [64]. Coking Coal Calendar Spread - As of June 13, the September - January contract spread was -13.5, and the January - May contract spread was -24, with no calendar - spread trading opportunities [68].

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - Copper (CU): Spot price is 79,500, with a month - to - month basis rate of 0.44%. The settlement price of the current - month contract is 78,300, and the price change compared to yesterday is 795 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Spot price is 20,630, basis rate is 1.18%. The price change compared to yesterday is 455, and the current - month contract price is 20,390 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Spot price is 22,000, basis rate is 0.92%. The price change compared to yesterday is 200, and the current - month contract price is 21,520 [4]. - Lead (PB): Spot price is 16,920, basis rate is - 1.00%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 165, and the current - month contract price is 16,925 [4]. - Tin (SN): Spot price is 265,300, basis rate is 0.29%. The price change compared to yesterday is 770, and the current - month contract price is 264,280 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Spot price is 120,725, basis rate is 0.88%. The price change compared to yesterday is 755, and the current - month contract price is 119,970 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Spot price is 8,700, basis rate is 11.95%. The price change compared to yesterday is 795, and the current - month contract price is 7,355 [4]. - Iron Ore: Spot price is 863, basis rate is 8.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 23, and the current - month contract price is 704.5 [4]. - Coke: Spot price is 1,392.5, basis rate is - 4.90%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 67.2, and the current - month contract price is 1,371 [4]. - Coking Coal: Spot price is 980, basis rate is 23.19%. The price change compared to yesterday is 184.5, and the current - month contract price is 795.5 [4]. - Power Coal (ZC): Spot price is 801.4, basis rate is - 23.01%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 184.4, and the current - month contract price is 617 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Spot price is 5,292, basis rate is - 1.85%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 202, and the current - month contract price is 5,090 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Spot price is 5,622, basis rate is - 2.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is 266, and the current - month contract price is 5,584 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Spot price is 12,750, basis rate is 4.76%. The price change compared to yesterday is 145, and the current - month contract price is 12,530 [4]. - Glass (FG): Spot price is 1,130, basis rate is 15.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 89, and the current - month contract price is 980 [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Products - Soybean (A): Spot price is 4,242, basis rate is - 6.65%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 170, and the current - month contract price is 4,130 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Spot price is 3,073, basis rate is - 6.40%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 223, and the current - month contract price is 2,850 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Spot price is 2,671, basis rate is - 4.90%. The price change compared to yesterday is 159, and the current - month contract price is 2,374 [4]. - Soybean Oil (Y): Spot price is 8,300, basis rate is 4.27%. The price change compared to yesterday is 724, and the current - month contract price is 7,960 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): Spot price is 9,650, basis rate is 1.53%. The price change compared to yesterday is 466, and the current - month contract price is 9,374 [4]. - Peanut (PK): Spot price is 9,400, basis rate is 13.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 1,306, and the current - month contract price is 8,296 [4]. - Palm Oil (P): Spot price is 8,790, basis rate is - 0.59%. The price change compared to yesterday is 532, and the current - month contract price is 8,372 [4]. - Corn (C): Spot price is 2,391, basis rate is 0.89%. The price change compared to yesterday is 68, and the current - month contract price is 2,312 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Spot price is 2,781, basis rate is 0.52%. The price change compared to yesterday is 20, and the current - month contract price is 2,720 [4]. - Apples (AP): Spot price is 7,800, basis rate is 2.50%. The price change compared to yesterday is 177, and the current - month contract price is 7,610 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Spot price is 5,666, basis rate is 27.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 1,069, and the current - month contract price is 3,660 [4]. - Live Pigs: Spot price is 14,250, basis rate is 3.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is 670, and the current - month contract price is 13,780 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Spot price is 13,530, basis rate is 9.53%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 1290, and the current - month contract price is 14,820 [4]. Group 3: Chemicals - Methanol (MA): Spot price is 2,630, basis rate is 2.20%. The price change compared to yesterday is 166, and the current - month contract price is 2,464 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Spot price is 4,455, basis rate is 0.10%. The price change compared to yesterday is 81, and the current - month contract price is 4,323 [4]. - PTA: Spot price is 5,000, basis rate is 4.91%. The price change compared to yesterday is 234, and the current - month contract price is 4,766 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Spot price is 7,370, basis rate is 3.32%. The price change compared to yesterday is 237, and the current - month contract price is 7,059 [4]. - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF): Spot price is 6,530, basis rate is 0.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 94, and the current - month contract price is 6,442 [4]. - Plastic: Spot price is 7,350, basis rate is 0.16%. The price change compared to yesterday is 12, and the current - month contract price is 7,338 [4]. - PVC (V): Spot price is 5,405, basis rate is 11.21%. The price change compared to yesterday is 486, and the current - month contract price is 4,860 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Spot price is 14,825, basis rate is - 0.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 925, and the current - month contract price is 13,900 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Spot price is 12,315, basis rate is 1.28%. The price change compared to yesterday is 420, and the current - month contract price is 12,055 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Spot price is 1,214, basis rate is 3.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is 40, and the current - month contract price is 1,174 [4]. - Urea (UR): Spot price is 1,750, basis rate is 1.57%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 175, and the current - month contract price is 1,723 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Spot price is 6,133, basis rate is - 0.71%. The price change compared to yesterday is 16.28, and the current - month contract price is 5,232 [4]. Group 4: Energy and Others - Crude Oil (SC): Spot price is 524.6, basis rate is - 6.05%. The price change compared to yesterday is 3.3, and the current - month contract price is 505.5 [4]. - Fuel Oil: Spot price is 3,497, basis rate is 0.33%. The price change compared to yesterday is 221, and the current - month contract price is 3,079 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Spot price is 3,800, basis rate is 3.63%. The price change compared to yesterday is 301, and the current - month contract price is 3,499 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Spot price is 3,946, basis rate is 1.85%. The price change compared to yesterday is 117, and the current - month contract price is 3,260 [4]. - LPG (PG): Spot price is 4,698, basis rate is 6.82%. The price change compared to yesterday is 488, and the current - month contract price is 4,275 [4]. Group 5: Financial Index - CSI 300 (IF): Spot price is 3,873.8, basis rate is 0.10%. The price change compared to yesterday is 4.0, and the current - month contract price is 3,869.8 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Spot price is 2,685.0, basis rate is 0.25%. The price change compared to yesterday is 6.6, and the current - month contract price is 2,637.6 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Spot price is 5,767.8, basis rate is 0.01%. The price change compared to yesterday is 11.6, and the current - month contract price is 5,582.0 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View The report presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on May 27, 2025, including details such as trading codes, prices of different contracts, spot prices, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day. This data can be used by investors to analyze the market conditions and potential investment opportunities of different commodities futures [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU)**: The spot price is 78,590, the basis rate is 0.15%, and the price of the next - month contract is 77,910 with a change of 320 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Aluminum (AL)**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,350, the basis rate is 0.97%, and the price of the next - month contract is 20,155 with a change of - 0.05% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Zinc (ZN)**: The spot price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,570, the basis rate is 1.69%, and the price of the next - month contract is 22,195 with a change of - 0.15% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Lead (PB)**: The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,835, the basis rate is - 0.98%, and the price of the next - month contract is 16,840 with a change of - 160 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 264,640, the basis rate is - 0.02%, and the price of the next - month contract is 264,500 with a change of - 50 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Nickel (NI)**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 123,210, the basis rate is 1.06%, and the price of the next - month contract is 122,850 with a change of 940 compared to the previous day [4]. Industrial Metals and Minerals - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM Huayue Tongyang 553 silicon is 8,800, the basis rate is 11.40%, and the price of the next - month contract is 7,720 with a change of 875 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price of domestic 99.5% carbonate lithium is 60,400, the basis rate is 3.43%, and the price of the next - month contract is 61,420 with a change of 1,01% compared to the previous day [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU)**: The spot price of AuT + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 779.22, the basis rate is - 5.36%, and the price of the next - month contract is 777.30 with a change of - 3.44 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Silver (AG)**: The spot price of Ag(T + D) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 8,299, the basis rate is - 0.50%, and the price of the next - month contract is 8,280 with a change of - 41 compared to the previous day [4]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar (RB)**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,140, the basis rate is 4.53%, and the price of the next - month contract is 3,020 with a change of 120 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC)**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3,220, the basis rate is 2.61%, and the price of the next - month contract is 3,161 with a change of 82 compared to the previous day [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil (SC)**: The spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim is 455.0, the basis rate is - 1.63%, and the price of the next - month contract is 452.2 with a change of - 2.8 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Fuel Oil (FU)**: The spot price of bonded marine fuel oil 380CST in Zhoushan is 3,57, the basis rate is 5.13%, and the price of the next - month contract is 3,193 with a change of - 3.04 compared to the previous day [4]. - **LPG (PG)**: The spot price in Guangzhou is 4,798, the basis rate is 18.12%, and the price of the next - month contract is 4,091 with a change of - 0.61% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Methanol (MA)**: The spot price in East China is 2,293, the basis rate is 3.87%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,239 with a change of - 0.77% compared to the previous day [4]. - **PTA (TA)**: The spot price in East China is 4,905, the basis rate is 3.83%, and the price of the next - month contract is 4,598 with a change of 0.14% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The market price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S is 7,430, the basis rate is 7.23%, and the price of the next - month contract is 6,896 with a change of 0.29% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Styrene (EB)**: The spot price in East China is 7,825, the basis rate is 8.76%, and the price of the next - month contract is 7,005 with a change of 3.90% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Short - Fiber (PF)**: The price of Fangxiang semi - glossy natural white 1.56 * 38mm polyester staple fiber is 6,560, the basis rate is 2.02%, and the price of the next - month contract is 6,402 with a change of 0.01% compared to the previous day [4]. - **PVC**: The spot price of the calcium - carbide method in East China is 5,405, the basis rate is 11.10%, and the price of the next - month contract is 5,100 with a change of - 0.25% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Rubber (RU)**: The spot price of Thai - made rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,285, the basis rate is - 0.69%, and the price of the next - month contract is 14,300 with a change of - 860 compared to the previous day [4]. - **20 Standard Rubber (NR)**: The spot price of Thai 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 12,771, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the price of the next - month contract is 12,410 with a change of - 0.51% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Soda Ash (SA)**: The market price in Shache and Chongqing is 1,289, the basis rate is 2.79%, and the price of the next - month contract is 1,237 with a change of 1 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Urea (UR)**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1,850, the basis rate is 1.87%, and the price of the next - month contract is 1,737 with a change of - 1.03% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Pulp (SP)**: The spot price of bleached softwood pulp (Silver Star, Chile) is 6,248, the basis rate is 15.65%, and the price of the next - month contract is 5,300 with a change of 948 compared to the previous day [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin is 4,087, the basis rate is - 3.3%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,950 with a change of - 152 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,002, the basis rate is - 3.7%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,709 with a change of - 100 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,349, the basis rate is 0.01%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,332 with a change of - 96 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Vegetable Oils and Fats**: - **First - Grade Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Zhangjiagang is 8,120, the basis rate is 5.40%, and the price of the next - month contract is 7,682 with a change of 590 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,610, the basis rate is 2.43%, and the price of the next - month contract is 9,026 with a change of 228 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Peanut Oil**: The spot price of Baisha peanuts (45% oil content, 9% water content) in Changtu is 8,800, the basis rate is 6.64%, and the price of the next - month contract is 8,252 with a change of 548 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,520, the basis rate is 7.12%, and the price of the next - month contract is 7,954 with a change of - 0.30% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Grains**: - **Corn**: The spot price of second - grade national standard corn at Bayuquan Port is 2,344, the basis rate is 0.09%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,320 with a change of - 24 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory price in Changchun is 2,723, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,690 with a change of - 33 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pigs**: The spot price of external ternary pigs in Henan is 14,430, the basis rate is 6.10%, and the price of the next - month contract is 13,00 with a change of 130 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The spot price of the cotton price index 328 in Xinjiang is 13,445, the basis rate is 0.19%, and the price of the next - month contract is 13,385 with a change of 1221 compared to the previous day [4]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of daily - consumption sugar in Liuzhou is 6,200, the basis rate is 6.26%, and the price of the next - month contract is 5,653 with a change of - 0.04% compared to the previous day [4]. Stock Index Futures - **CSI 300 (IF)**: The spot price is 3,860.1, the basis rate is - 0.18%, and the price of the next - month contract is 3,831.2 with a change of 28.9 compared to the previous day [4]. - **SSE 50 (IH)**: The spot price is 2,699.4, the basis rate is 0.56%, and the price of the next - month contract is 2,646.2 with a change of 47.2 compared to the previous day [4]. - **CSI 500 (IC)**: The spot price is 5,669.5, the basis rate is - 0.30%, and the price of the next - month contract is 5,400.0 with a change of 74.9 compared to the previous day [4].

1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式： 基差率－ (现货价格-主力合约价格) /主力合约价格。基基率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今。 2.数据来源： Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带"报价为周更数据； 带"报价现货与基准交割品有差别。 迈科期货基差统计表 备注 ※有色金属期货价格为结算价,其他期货价格为收盘价。 Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkgh.com | 交易代码 基差率 | 名称 | | | 较昨日增减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 当月合约 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.40% | 詞 | CU | 1.10% | | 852 | 1305 | 1725 | 77580 | 77130 | 76710 | 78435 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | 铝 | | AL | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, asphalt production increased slightly, and terminal demand recovered seasonally. Some refineries fulfilled contracts at the end of the month, boosting overall shipments. However, demand recovery was slow amidst increased production, leading to inventory accumulation. With rising and stabilizing temperatures in the north and the absence of the rainy season in the south, road construction conditions have improved, and demand is expected to continue rising under the catch - up construction expectations in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan. Currently, the asphalt crack spread is at a high level, with limited upside potential. It may fluctuate under the continuous rebound of crude oil. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference support for BU2506 is 3000, and the pressure is 3600 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Profit**: The asphalt crack spread decreased. The profit of independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased, while that of major refineries increased. The production profit of asphalt decreased [4][6][8]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of both independent and major refineries slightly decreased. However, the stable production of Xinjiang Tianze, Qilu Petrochemical, CNOOC Sichuan, and Yunnan Petrochemical, along with the resumption of asphalt production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Henan Fengli, increased the overall capacity utilization and production [4][8][19]. - **Production**: As of the 16th, the Longzhong petroleum asphalt operating rate was 28.7%, a 4% increase from the previous period. The large - sample production was 492,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton (2.7%) increase [19]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume increased, mainly in Shandong. The shipment volume of 54 samples reached 367,100 tons, a 14.6% increase. Shandong's shipment volume increased significantly due to the resumption of asphalt production at Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and the fulfillment of contracts by some refineries. In contrast, the shipment volume in the Northeast decreased significantly due to the impact of falling international oil prices on downstream purchasing enthusiasm [19]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rates of downstream rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes remained flat at 23.33%, 20%, and 32% respectively. Currently, the operating rates of various modified asphalts have basically returned to seasonal levels but are still relatively low compared to historical periods. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt plants was 6.4%, a 1.1% increase. The resumption of work in the modified asphalt industry accelerated intermittently, especially in the north where good weather boosted production enthusiasm, while the south showed a slow increase [33]. Inventory - The weekly factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory all increased. As of the 14th, the inventory of 54 Longzhong asphalt factories was 917,000 tons, a 0.8% (7500 - ton) increase. Except for Shandong, inventories increased in all regions, with the largest increase in the Northeast due to slow downstream demand. The inventory of 76 social warehouses was 1.393 million tons, a 1.2% (16,000 - ton) increase, mainly in Central China due to concentrated stocking by some traders [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust. Policy changes are frequent, and risks should be controlled. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7500 - 7800 for soybean oil, 7900 - 8200 for palm oil, and 9100 - 9400 for rapeseed oil [40] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: High - frequency data shows a 4% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 15 days of April. With more rainfall in the next 1 - 2 weeks in southern Malaysia, April production is expected to reach the 5 - year average. In March, production was 1.39 million tons, up 16.76% month - on - month, and the end - of - March inventory was 1.56 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level [6][9] - **Export**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased 7.05% month - on - month. India's import profit has improved, and it may increase palm oil purchases, which eases the short - term inventory build - up pressure [11][15] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 348,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from the previous week. Spot prices weakened, with a weekly decline of 170 - 270 yuan, and the basis also decreased slightly [19][23] Soybean Oil - **International Market**: CBOT soybeans and Brazilian soybean premiums show an inverse relationship. Brazilian farmers' active sales and the new soybean harvest in Argentina suppress the increase in premiums, limiting the performance of domestic soybean - related products [28] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil port inventory was about 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons from the previous week. The factory operating rate recovered to nearly 40% but was still low. This week's factory soybean oil sales volume was 278,700 tons, an increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week [31][33] Rapeseed Oil - **Inventory and Sales**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 645,000 tons, and coastal inventory was 127,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. Terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased slightly. This week's average transaction price was 9,349 yuan, down 49 yuan from last week [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Cost side: Affected by Trump's tariff exemption news, risk assets in the macro - level have stabilized temporarily, but related negotiations are at a stalemate, and market sentiment is cautious. The fundamentals of crude oil have limited marginal changes, with overall expectations slightly improved and support still existing [6]. - Supply side: Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate decreased. Over the weekend, PTA plants such as Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua restarted. Without new maintenance plans, the PTA operating rate is expected to rise this week [8]. - Production profit: Last week, the PTA production profit declined. Before the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases and there are no obvious positive signs on the demand side, the PTA production profit is unlikely to recover significantly [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the total PTA inventory continued to decline, but the available days of in - factory inventory increased. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester and the warehouse receipt inventory both decreased [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester operating rate remained high, but the average available days of inventory increased, and the average production profit decreased [8]. - Overall logic: The cost - side support from crude oil remains. In terms of PTA supply and demand, supply decreased and demand remained high last week. The fundamentals are good, and the total inventory is continuously decreasing, but the pessimistic sentiment caused by tariffs has led to a decline in PTA processing fees. In the later stage, if there is no new maintenance for the restarted PTA plants last week, the operating rate will rise this week. Although the polyester on the demand side is at a seasonal high in operating rate, under the pressure of high inventory, insufficient orders, and compressed profits, the high operating rate is difficult to maintain in the long term. If the PTA operating rate continues to increase, supply and demand may turn weak. However, considering the cost - side support, the short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate. The view is to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the short - term PTA price, with the reference range for the main contract being 4200 - 4500 [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - PTA futures price: Last week, the PTA price fluctuated narrowly and rose, with the highest price reaching 4398 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4218 yuan/ton [15]. - PTA futures trading volume and open interest: Last week, the PTA futures trading volume decreased from 2.1226 million lots to 1.3233 million lots, and the open interest increased from 1.5443 million lots to 1.6102 million lots [20]. Supply - PTA weekly operating rate: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.99% to 76.74%, and the output decreased from 1.3617 million tons to 1.3385 million tons [28]. - PTA restart and maintenance plans: Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua plants restarted over the weekend. Without new maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase this week. There are also multiple plants with maintenance and restart schedules, such as Hainan Yisheng, Sichuan Energy Investment, etc. [32]. Profit - PTA processing fee: Last week, the PTA spot processing fee decreased from 393.4 yuan/ton to 322.89 yuan/ton, and the average disk processing fee decreased from 392.63 yuan/ton to 338.43 yuan/ton [38]. Inventory - PTA total inventory: The PTA total inventory continued to decline, from 2.7843 million tons to 2.5549 million tons. The available days of in - factory inventory increased from 4.32 days to 4.36 days, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories decreased from 760,600 tons to 701,200 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 810,900 tons to 695,100 tons [47]. Demand - Polyester operating rate and output: Last week, the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased from 91.31% to 91.09%, and the output increased from 1.5506 million tons to 1.5588 million tons [53]. - Polyester inventory and production profit: The average polyester inventory increased from 15.56 days to 16.16 days, and the average production profit decreased from 53.02 yuan/ton to - 8.02 yuan/ton [60].

www.mkqh.com 宏观仍有风险，关注北美种植期天气 投研服务中心 2025.4.14 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 近端弱预期，宏观仍有扰动 近端弱预期，宏观仍有扰动 -国际方面： 上周美方关税政策震荡反复，对其他国家关税延迟，CBOT大豆回升。但关税政策仍极大 影响中方进口美豆意愿。全球大豆贸易流向继续重塑，显著推涨巴西大豆升贴水，抬升 国内进口大豆成本。从美豆进口季节性规律来看，远月09合约受影响更大。在新作美豆 播种面积减少的情况下，种植期天气将加大盘面波动性。但需注意巴西大豆本年度产量 增加，出口窗口的拉长或将熨平三季度美豆紧缺影响。同时关注未来中美贸易关系是否 会有缓和。 -国内供需： 当前为巴西大豆上市高峰期，进口大豆将逐步进入压榨环节，近月供应相对充足。目前 部分区域进口大豆通关速度较慢，油厂开机率下滑。关税提振市场情绪，下游买兴增加， 油厂豆粕去库。 -结论及观点： USDA4月供需报告维持此前预估，关注5月新作供需格局预估 | | | | | 全球和主要国家新作大豆供需平衡表(百万吨) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...