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投资咨询证号：Z0017203 Email：puzl@zxqh.net 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 量化诊断 策略概述 投资要点 风险提示 美国通胀和就业扰动、国内实体经济恢复不及预期、地缘军事冲突风险 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|---------------------|-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 大类 资产 | 品种 | 策略 观点 | 核心逻辑 | | | 上证 50/沪深300 | 震荡 | 美国3月零售销售数据持续强劲，市场进一步推迟降息预期实际，美债利 | | | 中证 1000/ 中证 500 | 震荡调整 | 率和美元指数持续走强，金融条件收紧，风险资产价格纷纷承压，外资风 | | 权益 | 成长 | 震荡调整 | ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. March CPI year-on-year growth recorded at 3.5%, with core CPI at 3.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[46] - U.S. Treasury yields increased significantly, with the 2-year yield rising from 4.8% to 5.1% and the 10-year yield from 4.36% to 4.49%, reflecting reduced recession fears[50] - China's economic data for March showed weakness, attributed to high base effects from last year and ongoing risks in the real estate sector, impacting consumer and business confidence[5] Market Performance - Major asset performance last week: Gold led gains, while A-shares experienced the largest decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.62%[9] - The stock market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with cyclical stocks likely outperforming growth stocks in the near term[55] Investment Strategy - Suggested strategy includes buying risk assets (stocks) during sharp declines and shorting safe-haven assets (government bonds) during rebounds[6] - For commodities, a narrow range of fluctuations is anticipated, with recommendations to buy agricultural products and non-ferrous metals on dips, while shorting related industrial products during rebounds[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include U.S. inflation and employment disturbances, slower-than-expected recovery of the domestic economy, and geopolitical military conflict risks[7] Monetary Supply and Demand - Last week, the central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 40 billion yuan, indicating a neutral monetary supply[19] - Total bond issuance reached 20,124.4 billion yuan, with a net demand of 3,568.3 billion yuan, reflecting sustained high demand for financing[22] Real Estate Market - As of April 11, the weekly transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 161.6 million square meters, a seasonal decline from 261.3 million square meters, remaining at a near seven-year low[31]

上周国债发行2400亿，到期2602.3亿，货币净需求202.3亿;地方债发行1788.4亿，到期0亿，货币净需求 1788.4亿;其他债发行5382.9亿，到期7152亿，货币净需求1769.1亿;债市总发行9571.4亿，到期9754.3亿， 货币净需求182.9亿，货币需求春节期间下降，系国债融资和企业债务融资需求减少。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 (10000) (5000) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 债市发行与到期（亿元） 债市净融资（右） 债市总发行 债市总到期 (4000) (3000) (2000) (1000) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 国债发行与到期（亿元） 国债净融资（右） 国债发行 国债到期 数据来源：同花顺iFind ，正信期货 货币供需分析-资金价格 DR007、R001、SHIBOR隔夜分别变化-11.7bp、2.1bp、17.3bp至1.85%、 ...

Economic Overview - The US February PCE inflation data met expectations, showing resilience despite a divergence from CPI, prompting the Fed to signal a potential rate cut in June due to financial risks[2] - Domestic policies post-two sessions aim to stabilize the economy, attracting foreign investment and enhancing capital market governance, which supports a recovery in Q2[2] Market Trends - The stock-bond risk premium recorded at 3.84%, rebounding by 0.01% from last month, indicating a high level of foreign investment attractiveness[5] - The average daily subway ridership in 28 major cities reached 79.27 million, up 6.9% year-on-year, reflecting sustained economic activity in the service sector[9] Asset Performance - Major asset performance over the past month: Gold led gains, while commodities generally declined, with fuel oil showing the strongest performance[12][13] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 7.2 basis points, indicating a steepening yield curve driven by expectations of monetary easing and low financing demand[17] Real Estate Insights - As of March 28, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 3.056 million square meters, showing a seasonal rebound but down 13.4% compared to the same week in 2019[76] - High-frequency sales in the real estate sector are improving, particularly in first-tier cities, following further policy easing[76] Commodity Analysis - Manufacturing capacity utilization rates show divergence, with a 0.83% decrease in steel mills but a significant 23.3% rebound in cement production, indicating mixed demand dynamics[41] - Commodity prices are expected to experience volatility, with agricultural products and non-ferrous metals anticipated to rebound after recent declines[51] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adjust positions by going long on risk assets (stocks) and short on safe-haven assets (government bonds) in anticipation of structural opportunities[11] - Caution is advised regarding potential adjustments in asset prices due to unexpected economic data, particularly in the US stock market and commodities with financial attributes[11]

投资咨询证号：Z0017203 Email：puzl@zxqh.net 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目 录 CONTENTS 4 量化诊断 策略概述 投资要点 风险提示 美国通胀和就业扰动、国内实体经济恢复不及预期、中东巴以冲突和红海危机扩散 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------------------|-------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 大类 资产 | 品种 | 策略 观点 | 核心逻辑 | | | 上证50/沪深 300 | 震荡筑底 | 美国1月 CPI和PPI 双双强于预期，彻底浇灭市场乐观降息预期，美债利率 | | | 中证 1000/中证500 | 震荡筑底 | 反弹新高，风险资产价格高位承压，外资风险溢价指数高位大幅回落，国 | | 权益 | 成长 | 震荡筑底 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - US January CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, dampening market optimism for interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields to new highs[3] - Core PCE inflation in the US has entered an optimistic range under high interest rate constraints, indicating a potential shallow recession or soft landing for the US economy[3] - China's social financing and credit data showed strong performance in January, with consumption during the Spring Festival holiday expected to improve marginally[3] Group 2: Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks led gains, while gold prices declined, reflecting a mixed performance across major asset classes[5] - The stock-bond risk premium recorded at 4.13%, down 0.3% from last week, indicating a high level of external capital risk premium[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 27 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to economic data and interest rate expectations[64] Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to adjust allocations towards risk assets (stocks) and short positions on safe-haven assets (government bonds) in the current market environment[3] - For commodities, a strategy of buying dips in non-ferrous and chemical-related industrial products is suggested, while shorting infrastructure-related black industrial products during rebounds[3] - The strategy for precious metals suggests buying gold and silver on pullbacks, anticipating a stabilization phase[3]

Economic Overview - In January, the US CPI recorded 3.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.9%, while the core CPI was at 3.9%, above the expected 3.7%[48] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in March has dropped to 10%, with the earliest anticipated cut now in June, reducing the total expected cuts for the year to four, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 1%[51] Market Performance - Major asset performance last week showed A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading gains, while gold prices declined[5] - The stock-bond risk premium recorded 4.13%, down 0.3% from the previous week, indicating a high level of risk aversion in the market[10] Monetary Policy and Supply - The central bank's OMO reverse repos amounted to 1.316 trillion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 417 billion CNY, indicating a seasonal tightening of monetary supply[12] - MLF injections in January totaled 995 billion CNY, with a net injection of 216 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decrease in overall monetary supply[12] Domestic Economic Indicators - The real estate market showed a significant decline in transaction volumes, with new home sales in 30 major cities dropping to 149.5 million square meters, a decrease of 30% from the previous week[33] - Manufacturing capacity utilization rates have shown seasonal declines, with a notable drop in the chemical industry, indicating a synchronized decrease in both domestic and external demand[39] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adjust risk asset allocations (stocks) and consider shorting safe-haven assets (government bonds) as the market stabilizes[3] - In commodities, a mixed outlook is suggested, with a focus on increasing positions in non-ferrous and chemical-related industrial products while shorting infrastructure-related black industrial products[3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US January CPI recorded 3.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.9%, while the core CPI was 3.9%, above the expected 3.7%[28] - The US PPI also outperformed expectations, leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields and pressure on risk asset prices[8] - China's January social financing and credit data showed strong performance, indicating potential marginal improvement in the economy[8] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic stock markets have rebounded, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading gains, while gold prices have declined[9] - The risk premium for equities over bonds recorded 4.13%, down 0.3% from the previous week, indicating a decrease in risk appetite[38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 27 basis points, reflecting rising inflation expectations and a tightening financial condition[58] Group 3: Policy and Strategy - The upcoming release of the US Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting minutes is anticipated to provide guidance on interest rate expectations amid strong economic data[8] - There is a focus on whether China will lower the LPR loan rate this week to stimulate the economy further[68] - The report suggests a strategy of reallocating risk assets (stocks) and shorting safe-haven assets (government bonds) in the current market environment[31]