1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Since October, precious metal prices have shown a trend of first rising sharply and then falling sharply, with a recent slight stabilization. Geopolitical factors initially boosted the safe - haven sentiment, but then the easing of Sino - US trade relations and other factors led to a sharp decline. The recent Fed rate cut and the end of the balance - sheet reduction have helped prices stabilize. Due to the US government shutdown and Powell's hawkish remarks, the December rate - cut path is uncertain, and precious metals continue to be in an adjustment state [3]. - Last month, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased. Gold and silver ETF funds had strong inflows but slightly reduced recently. Global gold demand and reserves are growing, with investment demand being the main driving force, and central bank gold purchases remain high, so the investment demand for precious metals will remain strong [3]. - The US government shutdown continues, and the release of economic data is postponed. Trump's pressure and the upcoming announcement of Fed candidates raise concerns. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and the new gold tax policy may attract funds into the futures market. In the long - term, precious metals are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on Shanghai gold and silver in the long - term, and in the short - term, buy in batches when prices stabilize. In the medium - term, it is advisable to hold long positions or go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices in various markets have shown different degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market increased by 4.87%, and the spot price of silver increased by 6.03%. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, with gold inventories down 4.69% and silver inventories down 9.01%. The total positions and speculative net long positions of both metals also increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Since October, the domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios first rose and then fell. Geopolitical factors initially boosted precious metal prices, and the price fluctuation of silver was greater than that of gold, pushing up the gold - silver ratio. In late October, the ratio gradually declined, and silver still has room for a supplementary increase [8]. - **Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The price difference of gold between domestic and foreign markets decreased compared with last month, while that of silver increased. Since October, the prices of precious metals in domestic and foreign markets have shown a trend of sharp rise followed by a sharp fall, and recently, the prices have slightly stabilized [9]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Dollar Index**: In October, the US dollar index fluctuated in the range of 98 - 99. The US government shutdown and the banking credit crisis have weakened the US dollar index, limiting its upside space [11]. - **US Treasury Yield**: In October, the real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries first fell and then rose, and recently declined slightly, remaining at a low level. The high debt scale and the government shutdown have increased the demand for US Treasuries, driving down the real yields [13]. - **US Key Economic Data**: - **Inflation Data**: In August, the US core PCE increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year. In September, the CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected. The PPI in August was 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and - 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a reduction in production - side inflation pressure [19][22][23]. - **PMI**: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, lower than expected, and the service PMI was 50, also lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service industries [28]. - **Retail and Food Data**: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.63% month - on - month, higher than expected, mainly driven by online sales, clothing, and sports goods [28]. - **Employment Data**: In September, ADP employment decreased by 32,000, and in August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. Due to the government shutdown, the release of employment data has been postponed [31]. - **Fed's Actions**: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's speech was hawkish. The December rate - cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut has fallen to 60% - 70%. The Fed will stop the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. The new gold tax policy may attract funds into the futures market [34]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US government shutdown has lasted for more than a month, affecting economic data release and increasing concerns about US fiscal stability. The cease - fire expectation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Sino - US trade friction have repeatedly affected the safe - haven sentiment, causing large fluctuations in precious metal prices [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: Due to the US government shutdown, CFTC data has not been updated since September 23, 2025. CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 52,400 lots to 266,700 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 5,800 lots to 52,300 lots [38]. - **ETF Positions**: As of October 31, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 26 tons to 1,039.20 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 495 tons to 15,189.82 tons. In October, the holdings of gold and silver ETFs first rose and then fell [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventories decreased by 4.69% to 38.168 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventories decreased by 9.01% to 482.4387 million ounces. The decrease in silver inventories has alleviated the shortage of London silver spot inventories [41]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In October 2025, the global gold reserve decreased slightly, while China's gold reserve increased. In the third quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year, with investment demand as the main driving force. The global silver market is expected to be in a shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, and silver has room for a supplementary increase in the long - term [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, precious metals are expected to continue to adjust due to the combination of factors such as the Fed's rate cut, geopolitical uncertainties, and the US government shutdown. In the long - term, precious metals are expected to be stronger, supported by central bank gold purchases and the new gold tax policy. It is recommended to hold long positions or go long on dips [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the egg industry is neutral, with supply, demand, profit, price - volume, and strategy all rated as neutral [4] Report's Core View - This month, the price of culled hens in sample breeding enterprises dropped significantly, the decline in the age of culled hens slowed down, the price of chicks decreased slightly, and the price difference between large and small eggs first decreased and then increased [4] - Due to weather factors, storage is convenient, the breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices, while the trading side has sufficient inventory, and both buyers and sellers are highly watchful, causing egg prices to fluctuate [4] - Seasonal patterns suggest that in winter, falling prices are supported by stockpiling, and rising prices are constrained by supply, so egg prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [4] - Recently, the price difference between large and small eggs has widened, possibly due to the breeding side accelerating the elimination of old laying hens, reducing the production capacity of large eggs, and an increase in newly - opened laying hens, mostly imported chicken breeds [4] - This month, the sales volume in major sales areas and the shipment volume in major production areas first rose and then fell, and the inventories in the circulation and production links fluctuated slightly, higher than the average of the past four years [4] - Downstream demand is stable, traders mostly purchase as they sell, inventory changes little, and they generally follow the market, with low enthusiasm for active inventory building, replenishment [4] - This month, the breeding profit fluctuated slightly and is currently near the break - even line, with the profit level at the lowest in the same period of the past four years [4] - This month, the egg basis decreased slightly, the near - month futures contracts are at par, and the far - month contracts are at a slight premium [4] - Currently, the price difference between near - and far - term egg futures is rising in a volatile manner and is at a historically low level [4] - From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional positions in the main egg futures contract is decreasing [4] - Based on the culled hen leading index, egg prices may continue to decline until March next year. It is recommended to sell short on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Volume Analysis - Analyzes the main production area price vs. main sales area price, egg basis of each futures contract, price difference between each futures contract, and the net institutional positions in futures [5][8][12][16] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culled hen situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [21][25][27][29] Demand Analysis - Includes the shipment volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [31][34][36] Profit Analysis - Focuses on the breeding cost and breeding profit [39][41]

Report Title - Zhengzhou Sugar Expected to Move in a Range Amid International Supply Surplus and Short - term Cost Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the expectation of supply surplus has widened, with bearish factors dominant. International sugar prices have continuously broken through support levels and are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Domestically, the new cane sugar season has officially started, with good supply expectations. The import volume has declined, and the impact of international supply has weakened. In the short - term, it is expected to move in a range, with attention on the 5500 resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory Main Views - Internationally, the supply surplus expectation has expanded, and international sugar prices are under pressure. In October, the first half of Brazil's central - southern region produced 2484000 tons of sugar, a 1.25% year - on - year increase. Institutions expect increased sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season. Domestically, import data has declined, and Zhengzhou sugar is moving in a range. New domestic sugar has not been launched yet, and imported sugar still dominates the supply. In October, the forecasted arrival of imported sugar was 174500 tons, a month - on - month decline. The new sugar - cane season is expected to have good supply, and attention should be paid to the sugar yield and subsequent weather [6]. Market Review - In October, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract continuously broke through support levels and declined, while the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained a weak and fluctuating pattern [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Foreign**: Brazil's sugar production in September and the first half of October increased significantly year - on - year, with a high sugar - making ratio. In September, both the export volume and price of sugar decreased. India and Thailand are expected to have high yields in the 25/26 season due to good weather conditions, and their exportable volumes are expected to increase [10]. - **Supply - Domestic**: As of the end of September 2025, the 24/25 season produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, a 12% year - on - year increase. The 25/26 season is expected to produce 11.7 million tons of sugar, a slight year - on - year increase [10][29]. - **Inventory - Domestic**: As of the end of September, the new industrial sugar inventory was 765000 tons, a 114.2% year - on - year increase. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 442100 tons and 204700 tons respectively [10]. - **Spot - Domestic**: In October, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of October 31, the spot quotes in Liuzhou, Kunming, and Nanning were 5730 yuan/ton, 5710 yuan/ton, and 5730 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot index price of white sugar was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [10][38]. - **Import and Profit - Domestic**: In September, China imported 550000 tons of sugar, and the forecasted arrival of imported sugar in October was 174500 tons. In October, the import price of sugar declined, and the profit from out - of - quota imports increased, making the imported sugar market more competitive [10]. - **Demand - Domestic**: The consumption side is relatively stable. The industrial sugar consumption in 2025 is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54000 tons from the previous year [10][47]. Spread Tracking - The report mentions various sugar contract spreads such as 91 spread, 15 spread, 59 spread, and the basis spreads of 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [49][51][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Bullish [3] - Strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise in spot pig prices is driven by the imbalance of inventory structure, not a fundamental change in the supply - demand fundamentals. The overall supply of the market remains loose, and the rebound of pig prices is limited. The growth rate of pig supply is still high, while the demand is not strong enough. It is recommended to short the January contract on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [3]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - 1.1 Pig Spot Price: The report shows the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, with data from Wind [5][6][7]. - 1.2 Pig Basis: It presents the basis of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [9][10][11]. - 1.3 Pig Price Spread: The report shows the price spreads of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [13][15]. - 1.4 Futures Institutional Net Positions: It shows the long - to - short ratios of institutional positions in the January and March pig futures contracts, with data from Wind [17][18][19]. Supply Analysis - 2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows is presented, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [21][23]. - 2.2 Piglet Supply: It shows the Henan piglet - to - pig price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, with data from MySteel [25]. - 2.3 Pig Slaughter: The average weight of commercial pigs sold by sample enterprises and the slaughter structure are shown, with data from MySteel [28][30]. - 2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread: The daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price spread are presented, with data from MySteel [31][32][33]. Demand Analysis - 3.1 Pig Slaughter: The daily slaughter rate of key pig slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of slaughter gross profit are shown, with data from MySteel [34][35][36]. - 3.2 Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the frozen product storage rate, are presented [37][38]. - 3.3 Substitutes: The seasonal charts of the price ratios between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are shown, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [40][41][42]. Profit Analysis - 4.1 Breeding Profit: The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets are presented, as well as the seasonal chart of self - breeding and self - raising profits [43][44]. - 4.2 Pig - to - Grain Price Ratio: The pig - to - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart are shown [45][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the trends of oilseeds and oils diverged. CBOT soybeans broke through upward, while oils broke through downward. The overall trend of oils was weak due to the resonance of the industry and external factors, and the rapeseed-palm oil spread broke through. The market sentiment was boosted by the strong demand for soybean crushing in the US and China's resumption of purchasing US soybeans, causing CBOT soybeans to break through the previous 15 - and - a - half - month oscillation range and stand above the 1100 mark. However, the continued shutdown of the US government and the possible delay in the announcement of the biodiesel bill suppressed CBOT soybean oil to break through the key support of 50. The supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil was slightly bearish, and the situation of Indonesian palm oil supply - demand was expected to ease. The BMD crude palm oil was under pressure and broke through [7]. - Considering the bearish Southeast Asian supply - demand data and B50 news, and the expected lack of positive progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, along with China's resumption of importing US soybeans boosting the US market sentiment, the divergence in the origin markets intensified and was transmitted to the domestic market. Rapeseed and palm oils broke through downward. In the short term, the overall trend of oils will continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for now and await the October origin monthly reports [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans found support at the 1000 mark again and then broke through upward, standing above the 1100 mark. Both domestic and international palm oils and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke through downward, while domestic and international soybean oils oscillated weakly [10]. b. Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: China resumed purchasing US soybeans. In September, the US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, the fourth - highest on record. In August, the consumption of soybean oil in the biodiesel sector was 1.041 billion pounds. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans exceeded 30%, and the premium at the end of October dropped from a high level [13]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5 - 6%, and exports increased by 4 - 5%. The reference price of crude palm oil in November was 4262.23 Malaysian ringgit per ton. It is expected that the production of Indonesian palm oil will increase by 10% in 2025, and the production in the first 8 months increased by 13%. The reference price of crude palm oil in November was 963.75 US dollars per ton. In September, India imported 829,000 tons of palm oil and 503,000 tons of soybean oil [13]. - **Import and Crushing**: In September, China imported 1.2869 billion tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 8.618 billion tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The import of palm oil in September was 150,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 1.74 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The import of soybean oil in September was 70,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 270,000 tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The import of rapeseed oil in September was 160,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 1.6 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. Due to the long holiday in October, the soybean crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the soybean inventory in oil mills continued to accumulate. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was almost exhausted, the crushing operation rate declined, and the weekly crushing volume remained below 20,000 tons [13]. - **Inventory**: In October, the soybean oil inventory was stable at around 1.25 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline for 6 months to around 560,000 tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the high point at the beginning of May; the palm oil inventory rose above 600,000 tons again after a brief decline. The total inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, compared with 1.97 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - **Spot Prices**: In October, the spot prices of oils first rose and then fell. Rapeseed and palm oils dropped significantly compared with before the holiday. As of October 31, the price of soybean oil was 8383 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.42% from the previous month; the price of palm oil was 8780 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.94% from the previous month; the price of rapeseed oil was 9868 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month [13]. - **Demand**: The overall spot trading volume of oils in October was average. The trading volume of soybean oil in October was 251,500 tons, compared with 338,600 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of palm oil was 23,715 tons, compared with 34,592 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous month [13]. c. Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text for detailed summary.

原油：宏观和地缘反复，国际油价先抑后扬 正信期货原油月报 20251103 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：10月预防式降息25个基点，鲍威尔发言偏鹰。CME"美联储观察" ：12月降息25个基点的概率为74.7%，利率不变 的概率为25.3%。到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为57.7%，利率不变的概率为16.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为25.6%。 Ø 供应端：地缘上，10月俄乌战场两极反转，上半月美国总统特朗普声称将在布达佩斯和俄罗斯进行会谈，地缘溢价大幅回落 ，但月底却又宣布取消美俄峰会，并加大对俄罗斯的制裁，同时欧盟也落地了对俄罗斯的第十九轮制裁，地缘在月内出现了极 限反转。最新消息印度石油公司高管称绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油。美国方面，10月24日当周原油产量增加1.5万桶至 1364.4万桶/日。欧佩克方面，欧佩克+八个国家决定在12月份将石油产量配额 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for supply, demand, profit, and price - volume aspects of eggs are all neutral [4] Report's Core View - This month, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises dropped significantly, the decline in the age of culled chickens slowed down, the price of chicken chicks decreased slightly, and the price difference between large and small eggs first decreased and then increased [4] - Due to weather factors, storage is convenient. The breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices, while the trading side has sufficient inventory. Both buyers and sellers are highly wait - and - see, resulting in an oscillating egg price pattern. Seasonal rules suggest that in winter, when prices fall, stockpiling provides a bottom, and when prices rise, supply acts as a restraint. Egg prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase [4] - Recently, the price difference between large and small eggs has strengthened. This may be because the breeding side is accelerating the culling of older laying hens, leading to a decline in large - egg production capacity. Meanwhile, the number of newly opened laying hens, mostly imported chicken breeds, is increasing, and this trend is expected to continue in November [4] - This month, the sales volume in major sales areas and the shipping volume in major production areas first rose and then fell. The inventory in the circulation and production links fluctuated slightly and was higher than the average of the past four years [4] - Downstream demand is stable. Traders mostly purchase as they sell, with little change in inventory. They generally follow the market and have low enthusiasm for active inventory building, stocking, and replenishment [4] - This month, the breeding profit fluctuated slightly and is currently near the break - even line, with the profit level being the lowest in the same period of the past four years [4] - This month, the egg basis decreased slightly. Currently, the near - term futures contracts are at par, and the far - term contracts are at a slight premium. The price difference between near - and far - term egg futures is oscillating upwards and is at a historically low level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional positions in the main egg futures contract is decreasing [4] - Based on the culled chicken leading index, egg prices may continue to decline until March next year. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Volume Analysis - Sub - items include the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices, egg basis for each futures contract, price difference between each egg futures contract, and the long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in the December and January egg futures contracts [6][9][13][18] Supply Analysis - Sub - items include egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culled chicken price, age and出栏量 of culled chickens, price and sales volume of commercial - generation egg chicks, and prices of large and small eggs and their seasonal price difference chart [21][24][26][28] Demand Analysis - Sub - items include sales volume in major sales areas, shipping volume in major production areas, inventory in production and circulation links, and seasonal charts of the price ratio between eggs and pork, and eggs and vegetables [30][33][35] Profit Analysis - Sub - items include the cost of raising a single catty of eggs, the average price of egg - laying hen feed, the egg - to - feed price ratio and expected profit, and the comprehensive breeding profit of egg - laying hens [38][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In October, at the macro - level, there were strong expectations for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the Sino - US trade conflict eased. At the industrial level, steel data was better than expected, achieving production increase and inventory reduction, and the spot trading of coking coal and coke was good. The main contracts of coking coal and coke maintained a strong trend, with a significant upward shift in the center of gravity. As of October 31, coke 01 rose 7.99% to close at 1777, and coking coal 01 rose 12.22% to close at 1286 [6]. - Looking forward to November, at the macro - level, major events are basically settled, and expectations will weaken. At the industrial level, as it returns to the off - season fundamentals, with the compression of steel mill profits, it is feared that hot metal production will not be able to remain at a high level. Be vigilant about the short - term callback risk of coking coal and coke, but the callback space is expected to be limited under supply - side constraints. In the long term, under the expectations of anti - involution and strict coal mine safety supervision, maintain a bullish view on coking coal and coke. Strategically, wait for the callback to buy on the long side for single - sided trading; pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive spread for arbitrage [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Coke Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In October, coke prices were strong, and in November, pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. Two rounds of price increases were implemented in October, and the third round has started. For example, the Jiexiu quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price increased from 1280 yuan/ton last month to 1380 yuan/ton this month [4][13]. - The freight rates for coke transportation showed mixed trends. For example, the freight from Xiaoyi to Rizhao remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton, while the freight from Jiexiu to Fengnan increased by 5 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton [17]. 1.2 Supply - In October, coking plant operations declined, and the supply side tightened. Some coking plants were restricted by environmental protection and maintenance, and a few reduced production slightly due to losses. As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coking enterprises' full - sample was 73.44%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points from the previous month, and the daily average coke output was 64.59 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons from the previous month [27]. 1.3 Demand - Hot metal production declined slightly but remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. However, as the downstream enters the off - season in November, with the compression of steel mill profits, it is difficult for hot metal production to remain at a high level. As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.36 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from the previous month [35]. - Speculative sentiment improved, export profits declined slightly, and the spot trading volume of building materials was lower than the same period in previous years [38]. 1.4 Inventory - Steel mills reduced inventory, ports increased inventory, and coking enterprises' inventory reduction was not obvious, resulting in a decrease in the total inventory. As of October 31, the total coke inventory was 900.02 tons, a decrease of 20.39 tons from the previous month [41]. 1.5 Profit - The improvement in coke per - ton profit was not obvious, and the coke futures profit weakened. As of October 31, the per - ton profit of 30 independent coking enterprises' samples was - 32 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan from the previous month, and the coke 01 futures profit decreased by 54 yuan/ton to 105.2 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [51]. 1.6 Valuation - Coke 01's premium widened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated. As of October 31, the coke 01 basis was - 88.13, a decrease of 46.5 from the previous month, and the coke 1 - 5 spread was - 139.5, an increase of 4 from the previous month [55]. 2. Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In October, coking coal prices were strong, and in November, pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. The spot prices of coking coal increased. For example, the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong increased from 1270 yuan/ton last month to 1520 yuan/ton this month [4][61]. 2.2 Supply - In October, there were many accidents in domestic coal mines, and the supply side was tight. The safety inspections in coal - producing areas were frequent, and the production of some coal mines was restricted. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal fluctuated greatly in October, and the import of coking coal from January to September decreased year - on - year [4]. 2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished inventory, upstream enterprises reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of October 31, the total coking coal inventory was 2587.90 tons, an increase of 5.58 tons from the previous month [77]. 2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 01 had a slight premium, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened slightly. As of October 31, the coking coal 01 basis was - 61, a decrease of 122 from the previous month, and the coking coal 1 - 5 spread was - 68, an increase of 18 from the previous month [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, it may be a policy vacuum period, and the probability of rebar prices being affected by the macro - economy will weaken, possibly returning to the off - season fundamentals. One should actively pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on the rebound. For iron ore, considering the potential increase in supply, one can still pay attention to shorting opportunities above 800 and hold positions lightly in the long - term [2]. - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting rebar and hot - rolled coil on the rebound. Arbitrage: Continue to pay attention to the operation opportunity of shorting rebar 01 and going long on iron ore 01. For futures - spot operations, industrial customers are advised to actively pay attention to the positive spread operation opportunity of hot - rolled coil and the hedging opportunity of establishing short positions on the rebound in November [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil 1. Price - In October, the overall price of rebar showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The rebar 01 contract on the disk rose 34 to 3106, and the spot price of Shanghai rebar was (3230, + 20). The hot - rolled coil disk price rose 55 to 3108, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil was (3310, + 0). The spot price of finished products fluctuated and rose, and was weaker than the disk price [9]. 2. Supply - In October, the blast furnace start - up rate of rebar showed a trend of first being stable and then falling. The daily average molten iron output decreased by 20,000 tons to 2363,600 tons per day. The short - process supply of rebar became loose, and the long - process production increased synchronously. By the end of October, the average start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.86%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The short - process steel mills increased production significantly in October. As of October 31, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1259 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 305,300 tons. The monthly average output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2317 million tons, an increase of 172,300 tons compared with the same period in 2024, and the fluctuation range was reduced to 28,500 tons [12][18][21]. 3. Demand - In terms of building materials demand, in October, the funds in place at construction sites improved. Both speculative and terminal demands were normally released, and the demand recovery accelerated, especially in late October. For hot - rolled coils, in October, the PMI weakened again, with the demand sub - items declining. The domestic industrial material demand was under obvious pressure [24][27]. 4. Profit - In October, coke prices increased by 2 rounds and the third round was still under negotiation, causing the long - process profit to decline significantly. As of October 30, the loss of East China rebar was 50 - 80 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was 70 - 100 yuan. The short - process loss was still obvious, but it narrowed due to the increase in finished product prices [31]. 5. Inventory - As of October 30, the total inventory of rebar in 139 steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 128,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170,100 tons. The social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 125,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.4824 million tons. The total inventory of rebar increased slightly in October. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 300,000 tons month - on - month, and the factory inventory decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month [34][37]. 6. Basis - In October, the rebar basis showed a trend of narrowing. The basis at the end of September was 128, and on October 30, it was 94, narrowing by 34 in the month. For hot - rolled coils, the basis changed from 57 to - 8 and became negative again. The current premium of the two varieties is low, and the space for the basis to continue narrowing is limited [40]. 7. Inter - period - In October, the inversion of the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 56 to - 64, with the degree of inversion deepening significantly. The main reason for the un - repaired inversion was the approaching off - season, which made the near - month contract weaker [43]. 8. Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the disk widened significantly, from 181 to 212, and the spot spread first narrowed and then widened, remaining at 100. The spread between the disk and the spot changed synchronously. It is expected that the spread will show a fluctuating downward trend when the demand for building materials weakens and the price of hot - rolled coils declines, and one can pay attention to the opportunity of lightly shorting the spread [46]. II. Iron Ore 1. Price - In October, the iron ore price showed a trend of first falling and then rising. After the cost of Simandou was announced, the market started to trade the rebound of iron ore driven by the strengthening of finished products. The 01 contract rose 19.5 to 800, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 23 to 800 yuan/ton [50]. 2. Supply - In October, the weekly average global iron ore shipment volume was 33.021 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.08 million tons. The cumulative global iron ore shipment volume increased by 22.14 million tons year - on - year. The weekly average arrival volume was 26.70125 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 900,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 million tons. The cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 12.22 million tons year - on - year [53][56][59]. 3. Demand - Rigid demand: In October, the blast furnace start - up rate first remained stable and then declined, and the overall demand decreased slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 20,000 tons to 236.36 tons per day. Speculative demand: The average daily spot trading volume of major Chinese ports by traders was 1.104 million tons per day, with a month - on - month increase of 64,000 tons [62][66]. 4. Inventory - Port inventory: In October, the iron ore inventory in 47 ports in China showed a fluctuating increase, and the total inventory increased by 7.22 million tons compared with the end of last month. Downstream inventory: As of September 29, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 88.49 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.86 million tons [69][72]. 5. Shipping - In October, the shipping prices from Australia to Qingdao and from Brazil to Qingdao diverged. The price from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.25 US dollars, and the price from Brazil to Qingdao decreased by 1 US dollar [75]. 6. Spread - In October, the iron ore basis showed a trend of fluctuating widening. The 01 contract was at a discount of 47, and the basis was currently neutral with limited space for further widening. The 1 - 5 spread widened from 21 to 23, and the current spread was at a medium level with no obvious trading value [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After the macro events such as the China-US summit and the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's positive factors have been fully realized. However, the Fed has released a hawkish guidance, which exerts downward pressure on risk assets in Q4. The domestic economy still faces significant pressure, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low, indicating insufficient demand. But the incremental fiscal funds are expected to support the economy [4]. - The domestic economic data continues to be weak, especially in the consumption and real estate sectors. The high-frequency real estate sales data has declined significantly without incremental positive policies. The export orders shown by the PMI have dropped sharply, related to the end of the rush to export. The anti-involution policy is being promoted, resulting in a weak supply and demand in the real economy [4]. - The domestic liquidity is generally loose, with the government debt financing rising continuously and the marginal increase in open market money supply. The short-term liquidity is neutral, but the credit impulse in Q4 is marginally tightening. Passive ETF funds continue to be subscribed, and margin trading funds continue to flow in stably. The reduction intensity of industrial capital has slowed down. Overseas liquidity is marginally tightening under the Fed's hawkish guidance, and foreign capital has a marginal outflow tendency. The overall supply and demand of market funds are relatively optimistic, but there are also some differences, so beware of the risk of high-level style switching [4]. - After a sharp short-term rise, the valuations of various indices have reached relatively high levels in history. The stock-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - Currently, the broad-based index market has high valuations, especially the growth style. The risk premium indices at home and abroad have dropped to low levels, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. With the large market scale, the limited liquidity is difficult to drive continuous growth. After the short-term macro positive factors are fully realized, the market enters a policy vacuum period. With the marginal support of fiscal funds for the economy in Q4, the overall macro fluctuations are expected to be small. The market may maintain a high-level range-bound trend, similar to that in Q4 last year. Focus on structural opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a high-sell and low-buy strategy for stock indices in November. Consider shorting IF, IC, and IM stock indices in the high-rebound area and going long on IF and IH stock indices in the sharp-drop low area. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the cyclical style and shorting the growth style [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the past month, among global stock markets, the Nikkei 225 led the rise, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline. Among domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.05% [8][9]. - In the past month, among industries, coal led the rise, while media led the decline [12]. - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.19%, 0.14%, -0.35%, and 0.65% respectively. The discounts of IC and IM widened, while the discounts of IF and IH narrowed slightly. The changes in the inter - period spreads of the four major stock index futures were generally small, but the long - term discounts of IC and IM widened significantly [18]. Fund Flow - In October, margin trading funds flowed in 104.93 billion yuan to reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.58%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.73373 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.81 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 211.724 billion shares, with a subscription of 76.25 billion shares from the previous month, and a subscription of 5.89 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 15.36 billion yuan [21]. - In October, equity financing was 49.44 billion yuan, with 6 companies. IPO financing was 12.16 billion yuan, private placement was 37.27 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 5.48 billion yuan. The equity financing scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the reduction in private placement. The market value of restricted - share lifting in October was 246.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.14 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the one - week less trading time during the National Day holiday. The reduction scale in the recent week decreased marginally, with the monthly - annualized scale dropping to 211.28 billion yuan [24]. Liquidity - In October, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 5.8572 trillion yuan, with a reverse repurchase issuance of 5.2761 trillion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 58.11 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business tightened. The MLF issued 900 billion yuan and expired 700 billion yuan in October, with a net issuance of 20 billion yuan. The MLF has had a net issuance for 8 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is neutral to loose [26]. - In October, the DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 1.7bp, - 12.6bp, and - 5.8bp respectively to 1.46%, 1.41%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 8.5bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 2.1bp to 1.64%. The capital supply tended to be loose, and the debt financing demand was strong. The capital price generally fluctuated at a low level [32]. - In October, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 8.1bp, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 5.6bp, and the 2 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 10.9bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 11.1bp, the 5 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 7.3bp, and the 2 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 6.8bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened slightly in October, and both long - and short - term interest rates decreased significantly, mainly due to the weak economic data and the decline in financing demand. The credit spread between Treasury bonds and CDB bonds narrowed significantly at the long end, indicating a cooling of the broad - credit expectation [36]. - As of October 31, the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate changed by - 5.0bp to 4.11%, the inflation expectation changed by - 6.0bp to 2.30%, and the real interest rate changed by 1.00bp to 1.81%. The risk asset prices were first boosted and then suppressed by the financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 5.00bp to 51.00bp. The inversion of the China - US interest rate spread widened slightly by 1.12bp to - 231.42bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11%. The US dollar against the RMB fluctuated at a level below the mid - point of the three - year range [39]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - As of October 30, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.074 million square meters, a slight decrease from the previous week's 2.101 million square meters, returning to a relatively low level in the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 45.4%. The second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally and significantly from the previous month, returning to a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales showed a weak performance overall, with the sales center oscillating at a low level, and there were signs of marginal acceleration of weakening in the short term [43]. - As of October 31, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities in China remained at a high level, reaching 83.8 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry heated up marginally. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded from the previous week, remaining at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [46]. - In October, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry decreased. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 2.25%, the asphalt capacity utilization rate changed by - 8.6%, the cement clinker enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by 5%, the coking enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by - 1.99%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.5% from the previous month. On the one hand, the implementation of the anti - involution policy led to a decrease in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the weakening of domestic and foreign demand in the manufacturing industry led to a reduction in enterprise operating rates [50]. - In terms of exports, after the tariff policies of the US on major countries have been finalized and the China - US summit postponed the tariff policy exemption for one year, the risk of a full - scale escalation of trade frictions has dropped sharply. After the previous export impulse effect, there is a risk of a pulse decline in Q4. China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, and after the decline in trade friction risks, it is expected to maintain its potential growth rate for a long time, supporting the economic center [58]. - In September, the US CPI inflation continued to rebound, while the core CPI inflation unexpectedly decreased, with a month - on - month decline of 0.1% to 3%. In terms of structure, energy prices contributed the main increase, the growth of food and beverages related to commodity inflation did not expand, and the housing and medical sub - items related to core inflation declined significantly, especially the housing sub - item, which decreased by 0.2% in a single month, indicating that the policy of expelling illegal immigrants began to affect core inflation again. Assuming that the month - on - month growth rate in October remains at 0.3% and drops to 0.2% from November to December, the annualized month - on - month rate at the end of the year will drop to 2.84%, and the Fed has limited room for further interest rate cuts this year [59]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected by the market, but Powell released a hawkish guidance in the press conference, expressing concerns about the lag effect of tariffs on inflation and stating that the overall economic pressure was not large, and the preventive interest rate cuts were expected to end. The financial market significantly revised the overly optimistic market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of another interest rate cut in December 2025 dropped significantly to 63%, and the market will maintain a wait - and - see attitude until next April. The expected terminal interest rate for this year's interest rate cuts is between 3.5% - 3.75% [63]. Other Analyses - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month, at the 44.1% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, at the 16.7% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level [66]. - The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.4%, 86.6%, 95.7%, and 85.3% quantiles respectively in the past five years, with relatively high valuation levels. The quantiles changed by 0.3%, - 1.6%, - 4%, and - 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices increased marginally [70]. - According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in November is in a period of seasonal oscillation and structural differentiation. In terms of style, the growth style takes the lead first, followed by the cyclical style, with an overall high - level oscillation. The profit - making effect of the stock market in November is generally poor, and the style switches frequently. Considering the high valuation of the current growth style, the weak real - economy situation, and the full realization of positive factors, it is prone to high - level adjustments. Since the IF, IH, and IC are highly related to AI technology, all styles have adjustment risks. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the cyclical style's supplementary increase and the switch from the growth style to AI applications. Go long on IF and IH in case of a sharp drop, and conduct high - sell and low - buy operations on IC and IM [74].