Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Since July, the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has cooled down the Middle East situation, weakening the impact of geopolitical conflicts on precious metal prices. The US tariff and trade policies are erratic, and Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has led to concerns about the Fed's independence. The COMEX gold futures price reached a maximum of $3451.7 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price reached a maximum of $39.91 per ounce. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future [2]. - Last month, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold [2]. - The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. The price of Shanghai silver is slightly rising in the short - term, and it is advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In terms of price changes, the spot price of London gold decreased by 0.06%, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.97%, and the Shanghai gold main contract price decreased by 0.69%. The spot price of London silver decreased by 0.04%, the COMEX silver futures price increased by 2.37%, and the Shanghai silver main contract price increased by 1.23%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.5%, and the total position increased by 1.74%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.09%, and the total position increased by 4.13% [4]. - Since July, the gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets has been continuously declining, but it is still significantly higher than the long - term average, indicating that the silver price is undervalued and has the opportunity to make up for the increase in the future [5]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals has decreased compared with last month. Affected by tariffs and interest rate cut expectations in July, precious metal prices showed a volatile trend [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index rose and then fell in July. The strong non - farm payrolls report in June strengthened the US dollar, but the uncertainty of trade agreements and Trump's pressure on the Fed weakened the US dollar. The weak non - farm payrolls report in July further weakened the US dollar [11]. - The real yields of the US 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds rose and then fell last month. Affected by the changing US tariff policies and the revised expectations of the Fed rate cut, precious metal prices fluctuated [13]. - In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year, both higher than expected. The inflation rebound, combined with the weakness in consumer spending and the labor market, has intensified the policy differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [18]. - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. Except for energy, the prices of other CPI sub - items increased year - on - year. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed maintained the interest rate in July [21]. - In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, lower than expected and below the boom - bust line. In June, the ISM service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than expected. In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, both exceeding expectations [24]. - In July, the US ADP employment increased by 104,000, but the proportion of consumers thinking that "jobs are difficult to obtain" reached a nearly four - and - a - half - year high. The non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a weak labor market [27]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July. There were two dissenting votes, indicating increased internal differences. The US tariff policy is erratic, and the trade progress has boosted the US dollar and market risk sentiment, while the uncertainty has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals [30]. - According to the World Gold Council's survey, 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which helps to hedge risks and promote RMB internationalization [31]. 3. Position Analysis - As of July 29, 2025, the net long position of CMX gold speculators increased by 21,600 lots to 223,600 lots, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold. The net long position of CMX silver speculators decreased by 4,000 lots to 59,400 lots [34]. - As of August 1, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.85 tons to 953.08 tons, and the holdings of SLV silver ETF increased by 187.66 tons to 15,056.66 tons. Overall, the capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs accelerated last month [35]. 4. Other Elements - As of August 1, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 38.7156 million ounces, a 4.5% increase from last month, and the COMEX silver inventory was 506.6616 million ounces, a 1.09% increase from last month [39]. - In July 2025, the global gold reserve was 36,305.84 tons, an increase of 31.55 tons from last month. China's gold reserve was 2,296.35 tons, an increase of 1.86 tons from last month. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver shortage is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [42]. - As the tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policy changes on precious metal prices will gradually weaken. The US economic data shows that inflation is moderate, and the weak non - farm payrolls data in July provides an opportunity for the Fed to restart a moderate rate cut. The precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43].

正信期货研究院 黑色小组 研究员：杨辉 宏观预期降温， 8月双焦阶段性回调 煤焦月度报告 20250804 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 7月大幅反弹，8月面临阶段性回调；现货提涨落地四轮，8月初落地第五轮 | | | 供给 | 焦企供应恢复缓慢 | | | 需求 | 铁水维持高位，原料刚需支撑较强；投机情绪先强后弱，出口利润下滑，建材成交阶段性改善后再走弱 | | | 库存 | 焦企、钢厂降库，港口增库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 吨焦盈利改善不明显，焦炭盘面利润回落 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水收敛，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 焦炭方面，现货提涨落地四轮，但原料煤反弹，焦企盈利改善不明显，供应端变化不大。需求方面，铁水小幅下滑，尚在高 位，刚需支撑较强，近期北方降雨运力不畅，钢厂到货相对吃力。 | | | 价格 供应 | 7月大涨大跌，8月面临阶段性回调；现货大幅反弹 7月产地煤矿复产较慢，洗煤厂开工率略有回升；蒙煤通 ...

理性投资，风险自担 股指月报：宏观利多预期褪去，经济在弱现实中缓慢回升 正信期货股指期货周报 202508 研究员：蒲祖林 宏观：短期来看，宏观扰动悉数落地，美国和重要国家关税谈判达成一致，未来海外宏观变量关注俄乌问题是否升级所 带来的地缘冲突，国内政治局会议未释放超预期利多内容，为提出新的地产提振政策，反内卷基调有所降温，力求不一 刀切，但大方向扭转通缩的目标不变，总体来看短期宏观预期兑现后有调整压力，但中长期的政策指引仍然偏向利多。 中观：地产销售新房和二手房都回到低位，总体旺季不旺淡季更淡，刚需支撑下限，服务业结构分化且高位有韧性，6月 实体经济中生产和投资持续退坡，7月PMI延续收缩，但生产端显著降温，对未来企业盈利有提振，消费国补重启，社会 福利政策刺激生育，制造业抢出口近入尾声，国内经济仍将维持弱现实，关注扭转通缩的周期性行业改善机会。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，海外流动性在美联储9月降息预期下趋于宽松，金融条件延续改善，国内股市将获得增量资 金，被动ETF大幅流出，两融资金高位降温，IPO等股权融资延续和解禁压力边际增大。 估值：各指数短期大幅上涨后估值近入历史中性偏高水平，国内外股债溢价率偏低 ...

注重政策持续性 猪价稳定运行 正信期货生猪月报 2025-8-4 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 生猪 | 中期观点 | 月度评级 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 本月样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重降幅放缓、标肥价差先抑后扬、大猪出栏占比大幅增加。 | 7月30日召开政治局会议，会议在部署下半年经济工作重点的同时，更加侧重于长期规划部署。对于反内卷会议要 | | | | 供应 | 求"依法依规治理企业无序竞争"，相比7月1日中央财经委会议要求少了"低价"二字。长期来看，价格由供需决 | 偏多 | 定，人为管控价格，对经济反而不利。未来对于市场充分竞争的行业，估计价格上涨的空间不大，而对于国家管控 | | 能力强的行业，价格的提升空间可能相对大一些。 | | | | | 本月屠宰开工小幅上升，鲜效率明显下降，冻品库存小幅走高仍处于近4年历史同期低位。 | | | | | 需求 | 偏空 | | | | 近期高温抑制居民猪肉消费，多处工地停工导致集中采购锐减，需求季节性淡季凸显。 | | | | | 利润 | 自繁自养养殖利润处于盈亏平衡附近，猪粮比价低于近4年同期平均水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the egg industry this month is bearish [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, under the background of high inventory, the pace of capacity reduction is significantly insufficient, so the traditional peak consumption season for eggs may not see a strong price increase [3]. - The current high price difference between large - and small - sized eggs, along with the strong price of culled hens, indicates more new additions and fewer eliminations, which may suppress the price elasticity during the traditional consumption peak season [3]. - The acceptance of high - priced eggs in the terminal market is low, and high - temperature and high - humidity weather restricts circulation efficiency, leading to a slowdown in the movement of eggs in the production areas [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - This month, the egg basis has risen significantly, and the near - month futures contracts are slightly at a discount. The spread between near - and far - term egg futures has decreased significantly and is at a medium level. From a position perspective, the institutional net position of the main egg futures contract shows a bearish and volatile state [3]. Supply Analysis - The price of culled hens from sample breeding enterprises has risen significantly this month, and the average age of culled hens has decreased. The price of chicks has continued to decline, indicating an increase in new supplies and a decrease in eliminations [3]. Demand Analysis - This month, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas have increased slightly. The inventory in the circulation and production links first decreased and then increased, reaching a high level compared to the same period in history. The terminal market's acceptance of high - priced eggs is low, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase has declined [3]. Profit Analysis - This month, the breeding profit first declined and then rose, and is currently around the break - even point. The egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point are also analyzed [3]. Strategy - The strategy is bearish. As the futures price has rapidly caught up with the decline, the premium on the futures has been repaired to near par. It is expected to follow the spot price later, but due to high inventory this year, the peak season may not be prosperous. Short - term trading is advised to wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the pulp supply side is abundant while the improvement on the demand side is limited. With the policy and fundamentals presenting a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors, there is a lack of a single - sided driving force. It is expected that the main futures contract will operate in a wide - range oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: In July, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong decreased, while the prices of hardwood pulp like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine increased. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, sugarcane pulp, and bamboo pulp were stable, and the price of reed pulp in Northeast China decreased [11][12]. - **Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis**: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has generally shown a converging triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to oscillate above the lower track of the converging triangle in August [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: In July, the main pulp futures contract increased, and the overall increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures, so the basis discount margin decreased [19]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: In July, the log futures contract 2509 showed a continued oscillating rebound. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: It is estimated that the pulp production in August will be 2.126 million tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase, and the total supply will be 7.326 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase [23]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of hardwood pulp increased, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased [25][30]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased. The import volume of natural pulp decreased month - on - month, and that of chemimechanical pulp increased [31][34][37]. - **Pulp Import Average Price**: In June 2025, the average import price of pulp continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The average import price of hardwood pulp was basically flat month - on - month, and that of natural pulp increased slightly [39][44]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp increased [45]. - **Wood Pulp Usage**: In July 2025, the wood pulp usage in household paper and white cardboard increased month - on - month, while the wood pulp usage in offset paper and coated paper increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [49][52]. - **Downstream Paper Production**: In July 2025, the monthly production of downstream household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard all increased month - on - month [56][57][59][63]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In July, the spot prices of household paper and cultural paper continued to decline month - on - month, the prices of whiteboard paper and white cardboard decreased slightly month - on - month, the price of boxboard paper remained stable, and the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly [66][67][69]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: In July, the overall port inventory showed a de - stocking trend, but the inventory in Qingdao Port increased. The inventories in Changshu Port and Gaolan Port decreased [71][75]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: In July, the pulp futures warehouse receipts increased [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices are oscillating at a high level. Overseas, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with the drought - affected area of US cotton remaining at 3% as of July 22, and the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton at 57% as of July 20, higher than last week and last year. Also, the net export sales of US cotton last week were only 100,000 bales, which put pressure on US cotton. However, the high - temperature and low - rainfall weather in the western US cotton - growing areas in the coming week is unfavorable for cotton growth, and the strong performance of US crude oil and US grains provides support for US cotton. With these mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. - In the domestic market, on the supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively low. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the operating rate of spinning mills is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is constantly accumulating. Currently, the new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, the soil moisture is fair, and the high - temperature situation in the growing areas has recently eased. - Strategy: With mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. In China, the low import of cotton and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory lead to a relatively fast inventory - reduction speed. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. In addition, the downstream demand is still weak, combined with the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, which will limit the upward range of Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - US cotton is affected by both positive and negative factors and is oscillating. In China, due to low cotton imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory, the inventory - reduction speed is fast. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. The weak downstream demand, increased new - season cotton planting area, and alleviated Xinjiang high - temperature will limit the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. 3.2 Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 68.23 cents per pound, down 0.53 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.77%. The CF2509 contract closed at 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.70% [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Growth**: As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. The boll - setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week and compared with 40% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 33%. The budding rate was 71%, up from 61% the previous week and compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 75% [14][18]. - **US Cotton Exports**: In the 2024/2025 season, the net export sales of US upland cotton were - 32,700 bales, significantly lower than the previous week and the four - week average. In the 2025/2026 season, the net export sales were 132,600 bales. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 184,800 bales, a week - on - week increase of 18% but a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average [14][22]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills**: As of July 24, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 67.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%. The operating rate continued to decline this week. The cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 27.90 days of storage, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.63% [14][26][29]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of July 24, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 353,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [14][31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions cotton basis, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but no specific data or analysis is provided [36].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices were in a low - level oscillation. Abroad, as of July 22, the drought - affected area of US corn remained at 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate remained at 74%, in line with expectations. As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn were 1.38 million tons, also in line with expectations, and the US corn futures oscillated weakly. Domestically, wheat harvesting is basically over, and reserve depots in many places have entered the market to purchase, supporting wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season between harvests. Recently, auctions of imported corn have continued, but the transaction rate has gradually declined. Meanwhile, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises is generally low, and the short - term corn spot price has stopped falling. In terms of demand, current feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking. Feed enterprises purchase as needed. Corn processing is also entering the off - season, and processing profits remain at a low level. The strategy is that with multiple factors at play, the US corn market oscillates weakly. In China, the purchase by reserves supports the firm wheat price. The short - term low supply of corn supports the spot price, while the continued auction of imported corn and the existing bearish sentiment in the market lead to an oscillating corn futures market. In the medium - to - long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter. However, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high, and corn prices may rise first and then fall [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 419.00 cents per bushel, down 9.00 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 2.10%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,311 yuan per ton, down 3 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.13% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 External Market - Weather: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is average, and the temperature is low [14] - Growth: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 67% in the same period last year. As of the same week, the silking rate was 56%, up from 34% the previous week but lower than 58% last year and the five - year average. The dough stage rate was 14%, up from 7% the previous week, lower than 16% last year but higher than the five - year average of 12%. As of the week ending July 22, about 9% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 4% last year [23] - Export: As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 643,000 tons, up from 98,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 734,000 tons, up from 566,000 tons the previous week [27] 3.2.2 Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises: As of July 24, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.87 days, down 0.47 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 0.68% [31] - Deep - processing Enterprises: From July 17 to July 23, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. Affected by weak downstream demand, the processing profit of corn starch weakened again. As of July 23, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [36][40] - Port Inventory: As of July 18, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 340,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 940,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 10,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 395,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the starch - to - corn spread, the corn basis, and the wheat - to - corn spread are mentioned [45][46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, soybean meal prices first rose and then fell. On the cost side, recent rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has been good, but some areas have faced high - temperature threats. As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, slightly higher than the previous week and last year. As of July 17, the soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than expected, which supported US soybeans. Last week, the net export sales of US soybeans were 400,000 tons, in line with expectations but down from the previous week. With the approaching of August 1, the slow progress of tariff negotiations between the US and other countries has increased market concerns about US soybean demand. Amidst the mix of positive and negative factors, US soybeans have been oscillating downward. In the domestic market, recent soybean arrivals have been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Meanwhile, recent downstream restocking has weakened, but the spot price of soybean meal has remained stable due to the influence of the futures market. Additionally, oil mills' soybean and soybean - meal inventories are in an accumulation cycle, with short - term soybean inventories slightly decreasing and soybean - meal inventories continuously increasing. The strategy is that US soybeans are oscillating downward due to the mix of positive and negative factors; in the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient in the third quarter, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level compared to the same period, the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and current downstream restocking has weakened, so the spot price will remain oscillating. In the short term, as Sino - US economic and trade consultations are approaching, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US tariffs; in the long term, US soybeans have entered the weather - sensitive period. Favorable weather in the early - stage production areas has limited speculation, and the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be high first and then low in the next two weeks, so attention should be paid to potential weather - related speculation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the CBOT soybean closed at 1021.75 cents per bushel, down 13.25 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.28%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 3021 yuan per ton, down 35 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.15% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and low temperatures in US soybean - producing areas [12] - **US soybean growth**: As of the week of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The US soybean flowering rate was 62%, up from 47% in the previous week, compared with 63% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 63%. The US soybean pod - setting rate was 26%, up from 15% in the previous week, compared with 27% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 26%. As of the week of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 7% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [12][21] - **US soybean exports**: As of the week of July 17, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were 161,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 239,000 tons, compared with 530,000 tons in the previous week [12][25] - **Brazilian soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in July are 12.11 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. Recently, the Brazilian real has been stable, US soybeans have been oscillating, and the near - month soybean premium has stopped rising and adjusted [12][31] Supply - **Imports**: In the 29th week (July 12 - July 18), the total arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was 31.5 ships, about 2.0475 million tons of soybeans [12][35] Demand - **Pressing**: In the 30th week (July 19 - July 25), the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%, 380 tons higher than the estimate [12][35] - **Transactions**: In the 30th week, soybean - meal transactions increased to 692,600 tons, an increase of 4.51%; pick - up increased to 942,100 tons, an increase of 1.72% [12][39] Inventory - **Oil - mill inventory**: In the 29th week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, the soybean - meal inventory increased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. Among them, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week; the soybean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week [12][44] 3. Spread Tracking - No specific spread - tracking analysis content was provided except for listing items such as soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, oil - to - meal ratio, soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [47][51][52]