Report Title - Stock Index Monthly Report: The AI technology wave is still spreading, and domestic macro policies are worth looking forward to [2] Core Views - **Macro**: In the short term, macro disturbances at home and abroad will continue in October. Overseas, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of October and whether employment and inflation data support rate cuts. In China, there will be a series of macro events in October, and overall, short - term macro disturbances to the market will increase, but medium - to - long - term policy guidance is still bullish [4]. - **Mesoeconomics**: New home sales in the real estate market have recovered under policy stimulus and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The service industry is structurally differentiated and remains resilient at high levels. The profitability of cyclical enterprises recovers weakly, consumer subsidies restart, and manufacturing exports re - balance after tariff policy disturbances. The domestic economy remains in a weak reality stage, and attention should be paid to weak recovery opportunities under anti - involution and domestic demand - boosting policies [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity tends to be loose under the optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. The stock market has obtained leveraged funds and funds from the transfer of household deposits, but the pressure of restricted stock sales continues to increase, market divergence emerges, and it is more difficult to push the market higher after reaching a high level [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term sharp rise, the valuations of various indices have entered relatively high historical levels. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad is low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the valuation of the broad - based index market is high, especially for the growth style. The risk premium index at home and abroad has dropped to a low level, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. However, excess liquidity has accelerated the entry of speculative funds. In October, with macro - policy expectations and the valuation switch in the fourth quarter, the cyclical style has room for a supplementary rise. Without significant macro - negatives, the market is expected to rise inertia - ally, but volatility and risks at high levels will increase. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock indices in October, buy IF and IH on sharp drops, or focus on short - term arbitrage opportunities by going long on IH and IF and short on IM and IC [4]. Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, the Hang Seng Tech Index led the rise, while the German stock market led the decline. The performance order is Hang Seng Tech > ChiNext Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Dow Jones Index > Nikkei 225 > CSI 300 > NASDAQ > FTSE Europe > Shanghai Composite Index > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the new energy sector led the rise, while the comprehensive finance sector led the decline. The order is new energy > non - ferrous metals > electronics > real estate > automobiles... > commercial retail > non - bank finance > military industry > banks > comprehensive finance [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.04%, 0.15%, 1.15%, and 1.36% respectively, with the discounts of IC and IM narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.05%, - 0.08%, - 0.09%, and - 0.12% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM expanding slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) changed by 0%, 0.15%, 0.77%, and 0.73% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IC and IM converging significantly [20]. Fund Flows Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds - In September, margin trading funds inflowed 167.39 billion yuan to reach 2.43 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly by 0.13% to 2.54%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3,696.29 billion yuan, an increase of 190.78 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 2062.01 billion shares, with a net subscription of 73.41 billion shares from the previous month, and a net subscription of 21.02 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 88.37 billion yuan [23]. Industrial Capital - In September, equity financing was 155.34 billion yuan, with 8 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 10.63 billion yuan, private placement was 144.71 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.5 billion yuan. The equity financing scale rebounded significantly to a neutral level. The market value of restricted stock sales (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, and equity incentives) in September was 305.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.77 billion yuan from the previous month, and it was the second consecutive month of reduction this year, with a cumulative reduction of 2,586.82 billion yuan this year [26]. Liquidity Monetary Injection - In September, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 6,949.4 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 7,339.6 billion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 39.02 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business remained loose. The MLF injection in September was 600 billion yuan, and the maturity was 300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 7 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is relatively loose [28]. Monetary Demand - In August, the issuance of national bonds was 1,490.49 billion yuan, and the maturity was 762.12 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 728.37 billion yuan. The issuance of local bonds was 851.9 billion yuan, and the maturity was 405.9 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 446 billion yuan. The issuance of other bonds was 5,760.34 billion yuan, and the maturity was 5,825.27 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 64.92 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 8,102.74 billion yuan, and the maturity was 6,993.29 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 1,109.44 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market is strong, driven by the front - loading of financing demand for national and local government bonds [31]. Fund Prices - In September, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 7.8bp, 11.4bp, and 4.8bp respectively to 1.44%, 1.53%, and 1.38%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 10.3bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 1bp to 1.66%. The fund rate is significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly higher than the policy rate DR007 of 1.44%. The fund supply is loose, the debt financing demand is strong, and the fund price generally rebounded slightly at a low level [34]. Term Structure - In September, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by 1.9bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 2.4bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by 8.6bp. The yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by 16.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by 3.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by 4.7bp. Overall, the yield term structure flattened significantly in September. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened significantly at both the long and short ends, highlighting a strong expectation of broad credit [38]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In September, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 7.0bp to 4.18%, the inflation expectation changed by - 5.0bp to 2.34%, and the real interest rate changed by - 2.00bp to 1.84%. The price of risk assets strengthened due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 8.00bp to 58.00bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 8.92bp to - 232.30bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.1%. The US dollar against the RMB returned to a level slightly below the central range of the past three years and was supported [41]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of October 2, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.4702 million square meters, a seasonal rebound from 1.906 million square meters in the previous week, returning to the neutral level of the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, it decreased by 17.1%. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally, with a significant month - on - month decline, and were at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales have generally recovered, and attention should be paid to whether macro policies in October will further boost the real estate market [44]. Service Industry Activities - As of August 29, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities across the country remained at a high level, reaching 84.23 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% and a 51% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activities in the service industry remained at a high level, mainly driven by the peak of the tourism season. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, at a relatively high neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activities in the service industry tend to grow naturally and steadily, with a slight strengthening in monthly changes [47]. Manufacturing Tracking - In September, the capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry rebounded comprehensively. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.63%, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt changed by 10.8%, the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker enterprises changed by 21.23%, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises changed by 1.77%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 1.44% from the previous week. On the one hand, the anti - involution policy led to an increase in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the domestic and external demand of the manufacturing industry continued to recover [51]. Freight and Passenger Flows - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The weekly marginal decline was observed in the fields of postal express delivery dominated by e - commerce and civil aviation flights dominated by tourism consumption. Highway transportation was relatively weak with limited growth, while railway transportation rebounded significantly, highlighting the re - balance of the manufacturing industry after the implementation of tariff policies, showing certain resilience [56]. Import and Export - In terms of exports, the tariff policies of the US against major countries have been finalized, and global trade has entered a re - balance stage. China's exports have continued to grow strongly. China and the US are expected to negotiate again at the end of October or early November to discuss whether to extend the tariff exemption period. After the counter - seasonal strength of exports in the third quarter, there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [59]. Overseas Situation - US inflation remained resilient in August, and high - frequency data in September showed that it may continue to be resilient. Although Fed officials mentioned preventive rate cuts, the financial market still maintains an optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp, at the points of October and December. The probability of a rate cut in October has increased to a high level of 92.5%, and the probability in December is also as high as 81.4%. The end - of - year interest rate after rate cuts is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. If the core inflation remains around 2.8%, the real interest rate is expected to drop to 1%, which will be beneficial to risk assets [66]. Other Analyses Valuation - The stock - bond risk premium was 2.56% last month, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous month, at the 43.9% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.42%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous month, at the 16.8% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.8%, 86.7%, 98.9%, and 84.4% quantiles of the past five years respectively, and their relative valuations were not low. The valuation quantiles changed by - 3.7%, 2.4%, 4.5%, and 1.9% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of each broad - based index continued to decline [68][70]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to the seasonal law analysis, the stock market is in a stage of seasonal volatile rise and structural differentiation in October. The cyclical style is dominant, and the growth style generally fluctuates at a high level. Overall, the stock market has a good profit - making effect in October, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the bullish macro - policy expectation in October, attention should be paid to the supplementary rise of the cyclical style and the opportunity of the growth style switching to AI applications. Buy IF and IH on sharp drops, and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for IC and IM [75].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro: On October 9th, some senior Fed officials preferred to keep interest rates unchanged last month, highlighting concerns that high inflation still threatens the US economy. Despite a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, the Fed meeting minutes showed that "a few" FOMC members would have supported keeping rates unchanged as inflation might stay above the target. The rise in inflation this year has "stalled" progress towards the 2% target, and some members worried about a rise in long - term inflation expectations if inflation doesn't return to the target in time [6]. - Fundamentals: Driven by LME zinc, SHFE zinc has risen slightly recently, mainly due to optimistic macro sentiment and continuous inventory reduction overseas. In the short - term, domestic smelters prefer domestic zinc concentrates due to better profits, leading to a decrease in domestic concentrate processing fees and an increase in imported concentrate processing fees. The large inventory difference between domestic and overseas has widened the refined zinc import loss, and attention should be paid to the opening of the refined zinc export window. In the long - term, on the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc output has expanded, leading to a rapid increase in domestic social inventories. Overseas, high - cost smelters are under great loss pressure due to the record - low long - term processing fees, resulting in production cuts and continuous reduction of LME inventories. The widening import loss of refined zinc reflects the different situations between domestic and overseas smelting. Globally, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming looser. Although the transmission from ore production increase to smelting expansion is delayed by overseas smelter production cuts, considering the sufficient domestic smelting capacity, the increase in global zinc ore output will eventually lead to an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing volume. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency of oversupply in the long - term zinc supply - demand balance [6]. - Strategy: The pattern of a stronger overseas and weaker domestic market continues. The import loss of refined zinc has widened close to the point of opening the export window. The outflow of domestic refined zinc can help stop the LME inventory reduction. It is still advisable to consider short - selling on rallies for long - term positions [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Table of Contents Part 2: Industrial Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In July 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price is set at $80/ton, a record low and half of the previous year. However, the 2024 long - term TC was overestimated, and the marginal loosening trend of zinc ore supply remains unchanged [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrates were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. The increase in imports has pushed up processing fees. As of September 26th, the imported concentrate processing fee was reported at $115.9/ton, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 3,650 yuan/ton, showing a differentiation between domestic and imported processing fees [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic smelters using domestic concentrates is still good, while that of using imported concentrates has turned into a loss due to the domestic - overseas price ratio [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In July 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1963 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In September 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 587,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The poor profit of imported concentrates and the tightening of recycled zinc raw materials led to a month - on - month decrease in output [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Imports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed, and the import loss has widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window [20]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - Stage Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.52%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding power) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidies, home appliance consumption is expected to remain resilient [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: There is a differentiation in absolute inventory levels between domestic and overseas. Attention should be paid to the outflow of domestic inventory to supplement LME inventory [32]. - **Spot Premium**: As of October 8th, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was reported at a premium of $59.11/ton. Due to low LME inventory, the spot premium has increased. The domestic spot premium is low. On September 30th, abnormal trading of the near - month contract (Contract 10) near the closing led to abnormal price differences [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of October 3rd, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,894 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The intense game between the two parties in the US has led to the suspension of important economic data release, with no sign of alleviation. Meanwhile, there will be major adjustments in the Japanese political arena. Overall, the high uncertainty has caused the US dollar index, precious metals, and metal prices to run strongly in sync. It is expected that the domestic market will open higher after the holiday, but considering the departure of most long - position funds in the Shanghai aluminum market before the holiday and the average overall open interest, the upside space is estimated to be limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the upper limit of the range at 21,000. On the fundamental side, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to high - level hedging opportunities [6][9] Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In September, the in - production capacity increased by 3.5 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased month - on - month. The weekly arrival volume of domestic ores decreased month - on - month, and the shipment volume from Guinea decreased month - on - month. The overall supply is stable with minor fluctuations, and the in - production capacity shows a slight overall increase [9][11] Import - In August 2025, China's net export of alumina was 85,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 17 consecutive months of net exports. The import profit converged week - on - week [9][21] Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level. In the short term, the demand for alumina was relatively stable [9] Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan, with a profit of 196.7 yuan/ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased significantly. The caustic soda price was 3,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [9] Inventory - Warehouse receipts continued to increase significantly. Weekly production and weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and production remained in surplus. The spot price declined but was still at a premium to the futures price. As the supply gradually becomes looser, it is expected that the spot price will continue to converge downward [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - The in - production capacity increased slightly. In August, the net import was 191,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43,300 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,900 tons. The current import loss was 1,765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week widening of 121 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the premium of primary aluminum over scrap aluminum converged by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week. In August, the import of scrap aluminum was 172,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 12,100 tons [9][56][61] Demand - In August, the output of aluminum products was 5.5482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 64,500 tons. The output of aluminum alloy was 163,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 99,000 tons [9] Profit - The smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the current smelting cost was around 16,463 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4,387 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] Inventory - The social inventory was 591,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 tons and an in - week decrease of 24,000 tons. The spot price fluctuated weakly at a high level with the futures price. The discount of the spot price converged during the week, and downstream buyers still had some resistance to high prices [9]

核心观点 基本面： 9月以来，受美联储降息预期和避险情绪提振，共同推升贵金属板块的投资需求，贵金属连续多个交易日维持涨势，屡创历史新高， COMEX黄金期货突破4080美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货突破49美元/盎司。随着美联储9月正式开启降息周期，美元指数承压，为黄金和白银价格带来 显著支撑。此外，俄乌冲突、特朗普关税案、美联储独立性等地缘政治因素持续扰动市场，美国政府于10月1日正式关门，关键经济数据延迟发布 ，避险情绪升温。驱动此轮贵金属上涨的核心因素在于美联储宽松货币政策、地缘政治风险扰动以及央行购金趋势，白银受益于工业属性，具备较 大补涨空间。 资金面：上月COMEX黄金和白银库存增加；黄金和白银ETF资金流入有所增加；对冲基金多头增加贵金属的增持力度。全球黄金 需求量和储备量维持增长态势，ETF投资需求保持强劲，央行增储黄金的长期趋势不变，资金持续涌入贵金属板块，为其价格提 供底部支撑。 策略：综合来看，美国政府关门持续时间未知，非农就业报告等关键经济数据延迟发布，美联储 1 0月议息会议将依赖于私营机构 的数据，市场对美国经济走向和美联储降息路径的判断难度增加，为市场注入不确定性因素，叠加全球地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the weak supply - demand situation, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging on rallies in the fourth - quarter inventory accumulation pattern. MEG is expected to maintain a weak pattern, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high levels [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Market Review**: In September, although oil prices rose and cost support was strong, PX downstream demand was sluggish, terminal inventory replenishment was cautious, and the new downstream device commissioning was postponed. The MX - PX spread remained high, and the PX absolute price declined. By September 30, the Asian PX closing price was $808.83/ton CFR China, a decrease of $39.84/ton or 4.69% from August 29 [15][17]. - **Maintenance and Restart**: In September, Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton unit and two units of Fuhai Chuang totaling 1.6 million tons restarted after maintenance, while Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton unit was under maintenance. The PX operating rate in September was 89.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: By September 30, the PX - naphtha spread was $217.1/ton, a decrease of $34.21/ton from August 29. The high PX - MX spread led to high enterprise operating rates, but weak terminal demand and postponed new device commissioning reduced the PX - naphtha spread [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In early September, with increasing crude oil production and weak upstream reality, combined with high PTA supply expectations and limited growth space for polyester demand, PTA prices declined. In the middle of the month, due to the Palestine - Israel conflict and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, PTA prices recovered intermittently but then fell again. In late September, low processing fees and typhoon - affected device shutdowns in South China, along with weak crude oil, led to a decline in PTA prices. By September 30, the PTA spot price was 4,545 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 55 [24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. In October, Ineos and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the monthly PTA output may increase significantly, but attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts in existing devices [30]. - **Processing Fees**: In September, the PTA monthly average processing fee was 156.94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.65%. The reduction in the destocking range and lower - than - expected terminal performance limited the improvement of PTA benefits, even with PX price concessions [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In September, although the cost side was stable to strong, concerns about future supply - demand inventory accumulation led to a significant decline in MEG prices. Despite the low port inventory and the mid - month inventory reaching a five - year low, the new production affected the futures market, resulting in a pattern of strong basis and weak prices. By September 30, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,275 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,410 yuan/ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95%, with the non - coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 66.85% and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 67.1% [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 9, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 443,100 tons, an increase of 88,000 tons or 24.8% from September 29. As of October 8, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of domestic MEG in East China was 203,000 tons [45]. - **Processing Profits**: By September 25, the naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to $129/ton, reaching the lowest level of the year, and the profits of other processes also declined to varying degrees due to weak prices, limited terminal order improvement, and new device commissioning [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the restart of some devices and new device commissioning. In October, after successful destocking before the festival, the polyester monthly load is expected to remain stable, but there is a risk of a decline in the second half of October as autumn and winter orders are delivered [49][51]. - **Inventory**: Before the festival, aggressive promotions led to low inventory levels, but inventory increased after the festival as downstream textile manufacturers had holidays. The overall inventory of polyester products is currently in a relatively good state [56]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decline in polymerization costs, polyester product manufacturers offered promotions, compressing local cash flows [59]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%, a 0.93% increase from the previous period. The average terminal weaving order days were 15.42 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Due to the National Day holiday and factors such as tariffs and new order supplements, the overall demand is lower than in previous years [64]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: In September, rising oil prices provided strong cost support, but weak PX downstream demand, cautious terminal inventory replenishment, and postponed new device commissioning led to a decline in the PX absolute price [66]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, and the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95% [67]. - **Demand Side**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years due to various factors [67]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand was in a tight balance before the festival and is expected to move towards a loose balance after the festival. As of October 9, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 24.8% from September 29 [67].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. However, due to the coexistence of inflationary upside and employment downside risks, there are significant differences within the Fed regarding interest rate forecasts. Powell indicated that this is a risk management-type rate cut, and his hawkish remarks have brought uncertainty to the rate cut path in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the market still places high bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly. [3] - In the short term, affected by the realization of the Fed's rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar index, precious metals will experience a brief correction. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, it is expected that the transmission of tariffs to inflation will gradually become apparent. If inflation significantly heats up and the employment market shows signs of recovery in the second half of the year, it may affect the Fed's rate cut rhythm, which will be negative for precious metals. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the investment demand for precious metals from central banks and investors remains strong, providing bottom support for precious metals prices. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of Shanghai Gold is long-term bullish, short-term oscillating, and investors should pay attention to correction opportunities. In the medium term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai Silver is short-term oscillating, and in the medium term, it is recommended to buy on dips. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 0.33% to $3663.15 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 1.05% to $3719.40 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 0.47% to 830.56 yuan per gram, and the price of Gold A (T+D) decreased by 0.52% to 826.00 yuan per gram. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 1.41% to 3946.35 million ounces, and the total COMEX gold position increased by 1.29% to 520,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.78% to 266,400 lots. The spot price of silver in the London market decreased by 0.06% to $42.24 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price rose by 1.60% to $43.37 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 0.64% to 9971.00 yuan per kilogram, and the price of Silver A (T+D) decreased by 0.94% to 9940.00 yuan per kilogram. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.64% to 52404.33 million ounces, and the total COMEX silver position increased by 3.99% to 163,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX silver decreased by 4.45% to 51,500 lots [5]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The domestic gold-silver ratio fell to around 83 last week, and the overseas gold-silver ratio fell to around 85, still higher than its long-term historical average. After the Fed cut interest rates in September, in line with market expectations, precious metals prices rose and then corrected due to profit-taking by investors [7]. - **Domestic-Overseas Price Spread**: The domestic-overseas price spreads of gold and silver both decreased compared to the previous week. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Dollar Index**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% at its September FOMC meeting, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index plunged and remained at a low level, boosting precious metals prices. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals prices oscillated strongly [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: After the Fed announced its September interest rate decision, the real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds declined. However, subsequent hawkish remarks by Powell and a decrease in the number of unemployment benefit claims announced on Thursday indicated a slowdown in the weakening trend of the labor market, causing the real yields of US Treasury bonds to rebound [16]. - **Key US Economic Data**: In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The PPI was 2.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, and -0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time in four months. The core PCE price index in July increased by 2.88% year-on-year, and the PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year. The ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and the ISM services PMI was 52. Retail sales in August increased by 0.63% month-on-month. The ADP employment number in August increased by only 54,000, and non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial unemployment benefit claims last week decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 [20][24][27]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Geopolitical Factors**: The Fed's September interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish. The market still has high expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Sino-US negotiations have made progress, while the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to disrupt the market [34]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the speculative net long position of CMX gold increased by 47,000 lots to 266,400 lots, while the speculative net long position of CMX silver decreased by 24,000 lots to 51,500 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased last week [38]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 3946.35 million ounces, a 1.41% month-on-month increase, and the COMEX silver inventory was 52404.33 million ounces, a 0.64% month-on-month decrease [42]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In September 2025, the global gold reserve increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons. China's gold reserve increased by 1.87 tons to 2300.40 tons, the 10th consecutive month of increase. In the second quarter of 2025, the global total gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with strong industrial demand for silver [45]. This Week's Key Focus - **Fed Officials' Speeches**: Fed officials will deliver speeches on the US economic outlook this week. Pay attention to the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [46]. - **Key US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index for August and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September will be released this week. Pay attention to the US inflation situation [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, copper prices fluctuated within a range, and prices were boosted by macro - factors at the end of the month. The implementation of US copper tariffs led to a narrowing of price spreads. COMEX copper ended a more than half - year tariff - expected trading with a 24% weekly decline, and the $3000 premium spread between COMEX and LME copper disappeared overnight. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts in September, and domestic policy expectations are strengthening with a bright performance in the equity market. In the industrial fundamentals, although it was the off - season in China in August, the spot premium was strong, smelting profits did not improve significantly, and production declined month - on - month. After the tariff implementation, global visible inventories increased further. The flow of the 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (with a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons this year) is crucial, and it may flow back to the LME copper market. During the re - balancing process, the emergence of invisible inventories due to demand shocks may affect the international copper price pricing center. In August, the copper price game was dull, with no obvious signs of long or short position increases and a low overall position level. However, the main price variable is still overseas. With the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the expectation of the peak season, copper prices may oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level [4][5][83][84]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Macro - level - In August, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded (the preliminary value in August was 50.05%, a 0.7 - percentage - point month - on - month increase), while the US manufacturing level declined (the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5%, a 3.4 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, hitting a nine - month low and remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months). China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The manufacturing industry was in a passive de - stocking stage under weak recovery, with a slight expansion in supply, a further decline in inventory, and a price increase, indicating an increase in apparent demand due to macro - policy stimulus. The implementation of US tariff policies and whether there will be incremental fiscal policies in China in the fourth quarter to promote the manufacturing industry into an active inventory - replenishment stage need to be continuously monitored. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts. Under the continuous pressure from the Trump administration, Powell may change his monetary policy stance and not prioritize inflation control. After the marginal weakening of the US economic "hard data", the probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased significantly. Domestic policy expectations are strengthening, and the equity market is performing well [11][12]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global copper mine production: In 2024, the annual production was 2283.5 million tons, a 2.54% year - on - year increase, with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons, a 3.32% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 25.1 million tons in the first half of the year. In June, the production was 191.6 million tons, a 3.57% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons [21]. - China's copper concentrate imports: In 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. In 2025, in July, the import was about 256 million tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative import from January to July was 1731.4 million tons, an 8% year - on - year increase [25]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On August 29, the SMM import copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 41.48 dollars/dry ton, a 0.33 - dollar decrease from the previous period. The 2025 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [29]. Refined Copper Production - In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a 0.24% decrease) and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a 12.30% increase). It is expected that in September, domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a 4.48% decrease) and increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an 11.42% increase). From January to September, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 109.35 million tons (a 12.20% increase) [36]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (a 6.49% year - on - year increase) and exported 45.75 million tons (a 63.86% year - on - year increase). In 2025, in July, the import of electrolytic copper was 29.69 million tons (a 1.20% month - on - month decrease but a 7.56% year - on - year increase), and the export soared to 11.84 million tons (a 49.86% month - on - month increase and a 69.13% year - on - year increase) [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (a 13.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative import was 133.55 million tons (a 0.77% year - on - year decrease), and in July, the import was 19.01 million tons (a 3.73% month - on - month increase but a 2.36% year - on - year decrease) [46]. Scrap - refined Copper Price Spread - The average price spread between refined and scrap copper rods was 862 yuan/ton, a 138 - yuan month - on - month increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 11.80%, a 5.03 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 1.46 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [49]. Consumption - end - Power and grid investment: In 2024, power investment was 1168.722 billion yuan (a 12.14% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan (a 15.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, power investment was 428.8 billion yuan (a 3.4% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 331.5 billion yuan (a 12.5% year - on - year increase) [50]. - Air - conditioner production: In 2024, the annual production was 265.9844 million units (a 9.7% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the production was 183.4554 million units (a 5.1% year - on - year increase), and the monthly production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, entering the production off - season [53]. - Automobile production: In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative production of automobiles was 18.235 million units (a 12.7% year - on - year increase), and the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.243 million units in July (a 26.3% year - on - year increase), accounting for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales [58]. - Real - estate: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters (a 27.7% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In 2025, in July, the completion area was 250 million square meters (a 16.5% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 29, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 516,400 tons, a 51,100 - ton monthly increase. The LME copper inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 158,900 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 7205 tons to 77,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 277,800 tons. As of August 28, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 75,000 tons, a 6000 - ton decrease from the previous week [66]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of August 26, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,230 lots, a monthly decrease of 11,117 lots. The non - commercial long position was 56,762 lots (a 17,888 - lot monthly decrease), and the non - commercial short position was 30,532 lots (a 6771 - lot monthly decrease) [68]. Premium and Discount - As of August 29, the LME copper spot discount was - 80.26 dollars/ton, and the discount pattern expanded. The domestic spot premium first decreased and then increased. It is expected that the SHFE copper spot premium will remain firm [77]. Basis - As of August 29, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [79]. Market Outlook - In the macro - level, copper prices may be boosted by the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the peak - season expectation, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level. In the industrial fundamentals, the flow of COMEX copper inventory and the impact of invisible inventory emergence on the international copper price pricing center need to be closely monitored [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates in September, which was in line with expectations and neutral. In the short term, the positive news has been exhausted, and in the long term, a new interest - rate cut cycle has begun. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - data guidance [6]. - Before the holiday, with the Fed's September FOMC meeting outcome in line with expectations and neutral, the short - term macro positive news has landed. The long - position funds in the market have left, and the market has returned to range - bound trading. It is expected that the price will fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000. It is recommended to go long on dips and bet on the peak - season expectations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In August 2025, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11,462 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% and a month - on - month increase of 160 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.32% and a month - on - month increase of 40 million tons [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina output was 792.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 6,052.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In August 2025, China's alumina开工率 was 82.93, slightly lower than the same period last year and a month - on - month decline of 0.82%. The smelting profit declined slightly compared with the end of July. The in - production capacity continued to recover, but the开工 rate declined slightly month - on - month [17]. - In August 2025, China's alumina net exports were 8.56 million tons, showing a net - export pattern for 17 consecutive months, with a slight month - on - month decline. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative alumina net exports were 126.16 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The prices of domestic and foreign bauxite remained unchanged week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5 per ton, and that of Australian bauxite was reported at $70 per ton, both unchanged from last week [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan per ton, or 1.35% [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The current full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 196.7 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 72.6 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina import profit was 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 126 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina was 3 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.2 million tons [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In August, the oversupply volume increased slightly month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and unchanged month - on - month. The in - production capacity was 4,437.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99% and a month - on - month increase of 15 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.61, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [48]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.11, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% and a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, at a historically high level with limited upside space [51]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 19.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 million tons. The import channel has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - On September 18, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,930 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 60 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap spread was 950 yuan per ton, a week - on - week convergence of 50 yuan per ton [58]. - In August 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 1.21 million tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 134.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%. The current import volume is at a relatively high level compared to historical data, but may decline after August due to tariff policies [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 6.45 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 4,378.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. A seasonal rebound is expected later [64]. - In August 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 163.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 9.9 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 1,232.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The spot prices of domestic and foreign alumina continued to decline week - on - week [70]. - The price of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged week - on - week at 5,627.5 yuan per ton [73]. - The prices of dry - process aluminum fluoride and cryolite remained unchanged week - on - week, at 9,580 yuan per ton and 8,390 yuan per ton respectively [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,575 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 4,385 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton [79]. - The current electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,644 yuan per ton, a week - on - week significant widening of 265 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumption areas was 64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons and an increase of 0.2 million tons during the week. The overall social inventory level was still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [85]. - In August 2025, the monthly electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 62.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.7 million tons, at a relatively low historical level [88]. - As of September 18, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods was 13.02 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.01 million tons and a decline of 0.54 million tons during the week. The current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical data [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,720 and 20,920 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 210 yuan per ton. The spot discount converged, and downstream buyers were still somewhat resistant to high prices [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].