Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - **Macro**: The US tariff exemption extension is entering its final week, and negotiations with countries like the EU, India, and Mexico are in a tense phase, with uncertainties regarding potential tariff counter - measures. Overseas is in a week of intensive macro - events, including the Fed's interest - rate meeting and key economic data releases. China will hold a Politburo meeting, and attention should be paid to economic work guidance and PMI data to confirm economic recovery. The real estate sales remain at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and has declined due to summer heat, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, posing potential downward pressure on the Q3 economy. However, anti - involution policies are expected to gradually reverse deflation [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose but marginally tightening. Bond market redemptions are flowing into the stock market, providing incremental funds. Overseas financial conditions have improved, with a decline in the real interest rate of US bonds, leading to foreign capital inflows into the domestic stock market. Passive ETF shares are being re - increased, equity financing such as IPOs has cooled, margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, and the pressure of restricted - share unlocks has increased, overall favoring liquidity [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral - to - high level. The stock - bond yield spreads at home and abroad have further declined, making the attractiveness of allocation funds average [4]. - **Strategy**: The current valuations of broad - based indices are not cheap, and the foreign - capital risk premium index has dropped to a low level. The pressure of US tariff policies may resurface. Considering that the stock market has prematurely priced in macro - expectations, the market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then correct in the next 1 - 2 weeks when positive factors are realized or fall short of expectations. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices after sharp rallies this week or use out - of - the - money put options to protect against black - swan risks. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Stock Indices**: In the past week, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the gains, while the German stock market led the losses. The week - on - week changes of major indices are as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, among others [8][9]. - **Sectors**: Coal led the gains, and banks led the losses. Coal > Steel > Non - ferrous metals > Building materials... > Electric power and public utilities > Communications > Comprehensive finance > Banks [12]. - **Futures**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.21%, 0.09%, - 0.39%, and - 0.31% respectively, with IH reaching par and the discounts of IC and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (current and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.3%, - 0.25%, - 0.19%, and - 0.25% respectively, and the inter - period discounts of the four major futures began to widen. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.21%, - 0.61%, - 1.32%, and - 1.81% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major futures widening significantly [19]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 39.65 billion yuan, reaching a total of 1.94 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained unchanged at 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.17358 trillion yuan, an increase of 74.43 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 198.619 billion shares, with a net subscription of 290 million shares from the previous week [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In July, the cumulative equity financing was 45.49 billion yuan, with 6 cases. Among them, IPO financing was 20.92 billion yuan, private placement was 24.58 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.79 billion yuan. The market value of stock market unlocks last week was 86.84 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.38 billion yuan from the previous week [26]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse - repurchase matured at 1.7268 trillion yuan, with a reverse - repurchase injection of 1.6563 trillion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 400 billion yuan in July and matured at 300 billion yuan, with continuous monthly net injections for 5 months. Overall, the liquidity supply was neutral but marginally tightening [28]. - **Fund Prices**: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 14.5bp, 6.4bp, and 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.65%, 1.55%, and 1.52%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 2.1bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks rebounded by 4.1bp to 1.67%. The fund supply tightened marginally, debt financing demand declined, but the real - economy financing demand recovered, and the fund prices generally rebounded slightly [34]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bonds changed by 6.7bp, 6bp, and 5.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 8.9bp, 9.5bp, and 6.6bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to steepen, and the credit spreads between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened at both the long and short ends, indicating a return of broad - credit expectations [38]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 25, the US 10 - year Treasury yield changed by - 4.0bp to 4.40%, the inflation expectation changed by 3.0bp to 2.44%, and the real interest rate changed by - 7.00bp to 1.96%. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 10.79bp to - 266.61bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.19% [41]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 24, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.531 million square meters, showing a seasonal improvement from the previous week's 1.372 million square meters but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real estate market sales generally returned to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting will propose signals to boost the real estate market [44]. - **Service Industry Activities**: As of July 25, the daily average subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities dropped significantly to 81.84 million person - times, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last year but a 21.8% increase from 2021. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week, indicating that the service industry's economic activities were cooling down [48]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Due to the anti - involution policy, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry declined. The capacity utilization rates of steel mills, asphalt, cement clinker enterprises, and coking enterprises changed by - 0.08%, - 4%, - 0.26%, and 0.44% respectively. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 0.01% from the previous week. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand trends of the manufacturing industry improved marginally, and it has entered the seasonal peak season [52]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods and people flow remained at a relatively high level. The postal express and civil aviation sectors showed a significant weekly decline, while railway transportation rebounded slightly, which may be related to the rush - to - export. There is a risk of a second seasonal decline from August to September [56]. - **Exports**: As the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is nearing its end, the port cargo throughput and container throughput have increased significantly. There is a risk of a second decline from August to September when the 90 - day tariff exemption period ends [61]. - **Overseas**: With the US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in July falling back into the contraction range and the US durable goods orders data dropping more than expected, the financial market has revised its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. The market expects 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, with a reduction of 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a September rate cut has increased to 61.9% [63]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.07%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week, at the 58.5% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.99%, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week, at the 21.2% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 81.1%, 76.8%, 87.3%, and 71.4% quantiles of the past 5 years respectively, and their relative valuation levels were not low [66][71]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal laws, the stock market is in a period of seasonal shock - driven growth and structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There are opportunities to go long on IC and IM on pullbacks and short on IF and IH on sharp rallies [74]. - **Financial Calendar**: China will release July's manufacturing and service industry PMI and industrial enterprise profits, which will help confirm economic recovery. Overseas, attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll report, job vacancies, manufacturing PMI, PCE inflation data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are weakly adjusted, and futures are oscillating to build a bottom. The overall trading in the producing areas is light this week, with the transaction center moving down. New peanut planting area is expected to increase slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. Spot prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the medium and short term and may enter a bottom - oscillating phase. Appropriate strategies include building a futures - options covered strategy and an insurance strategy for trend traders [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views - The overall trading in peanut producing areas is light, with the transaction center moving down. Some holders are more willing to sell, but downstream procurement is weak. New peanut planting area increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. Spot prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the medium and short term, suitable for building specific strategies [6]. 2. Market Review 2.1 This week - Peanut weighted index oscillates weakly and reaches the lower edge of the range, finding temporary support. The oilseed sector breaks through the upper edge of the range and then oscillates narrowly. In the short - term market, peanuts are stronger than oils [10]. 2.2 2510 Contract - The 10 - main contract rose to the upper edge of the range after falling below the lower edge last week. If the price continues to rise, the market may develop into an uptrend [14]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate - Peanut oil weekly inventory is 39,290 tons, a decrease of 120 tons from the previous month, and the oil mill operating rate is 4.21%, a decrease of about 0.53% from last week [17]. 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha) - The transaction prices of Baisha peanuts in Henan and Northeast China are chaotic. Some low - quality sources have low quotes, while high - quality cold - stored sources are relatively resistant to price drops. The overall trading is light [20]. 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend - The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [22]. 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend - Peanut meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal prices maintain an oscillating pattern [26]. 3.5 Imported Peanut Quantity and Price - There are few imported peanuts. Sudanese refined peanuts are scarce, and no new peanuts have arrived at the port. Import prices are stable, and the procurement of Senegalese sources is limited [28]. 3.6 Market Price Index Compared with Last Month - In the wholesale market, peanut prices are mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [32]. 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis Spread - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only a chart of peanut - Baisha basis is provided [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, spot prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded from a low level. Blast furnace production decreased slightly, and electric furnace production continued to decline. Building material social inventory continued to decrease, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace. Building material speculative demand increased significantly, while plate domestic demand declined significantly. Blast furnace profits remained high, and the loss of electric furnaces narrowed. The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit. The industrial logic accounted for a relatively low proportion, and the expected trading speculation was still fermenting. The probability of the futures market returning to a downward trend in the short - term was low. It was recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. - For iron ore, the ore price rose strongly, and the futures market continued to rebound. Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, while arrivals increased slightly. Blast furnace production decreased, and demand weakened month - on - month. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the total downstream inventory declined. Shipping costs increased slightly, and the futures price spread narrowed. The anti - involution speculation continued to ferment, and the market sentiment was still recovering. The supply was relatively flat last week, and the demand decreased slightly. The change in supply - demand strength was not obvious, and it was expected that news speculation would continue next week. It was also recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The price of rebar rebounded strongly last week, with the 10 - contract rising 77 to 3072. The spot price fluctuated, with rebar in East China reported at 3170 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 0.65 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons week - on - week. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points [16][24]. - The rebar production decreased by 4.42 tons last week, and the hot - rolled production decreased by 5 tons week - on - week [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 2nd to July 8th, the national cement outbound volume was 272.58 tons, down 1.26% week - on - week and 27.41% year - on - year. Speculative demand improved, while terminal demand declined [31]. - The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 873.07 tons, down 1.4%; plate consumption decreased by 1.8% month - on - month [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - For blast furnaces, although the iron ore price rose significantly and the profit per ton of steel declined, it still operated between 160 - 200. The loss of short - process production was repaired, and the valley - electricity production in the Southwest region turned profitable [38]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.58 tons, down 0.35 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.03%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week. The factory inventory increased week - on - week, mainly contributed by medium - thick plates. The social inventory decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar. The rebar factory inventory showed a slight increase, up 0.41 tons week - on - week [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - factory inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. In terms of social inventory, from the perspective of the three major regions, the inventory in the North decreased by 1.61 tons week - on - week, while the inventory in East China and the South increased by 1.84 tons and 0.9 tons respectively [45]. 3.1.6 Basis The current basis of rebar 10 was 107, narrowing 1 compared with last week, and the change in the basis was not significant. All reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread The 10 - 1 spread was - 28, with an inverted spread of 7 compared with last week, and the degree of inversion deepened. The near - month contract faced off - season pressure, and the price was expected to decline. The far - month contract had a better expectation, and the price was relatively high. The inverted spread situation might be repaired after the rebound ended [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 140, widening 11 compared with last week. The spot spread was 70, narrowing 20 compared with last week. The spread was at a moderately high level. The rebar rebound was relatively strong, and the plate faced the off - season of the automotive industry with declining demand. It was expected that there would be no further contraction space in the futures spread, and no operation was recommended [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price rebounded strongly last week, with the 09 - contract rising 31.5 to 764. The spot price also rose, with the PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 27 to 752 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks, leading to a significant increase in port transactions [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current shipment volume was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 363 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in July was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 437 tons compared with last month and an increase of 64 tons compared with last year [64]. - In the long - term, the weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 1764 tons, a decrease of 252 tons compared with last month and an increase of 95 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 181 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 144 tons compared with last year. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global iron ore shipments decreased by 173 tons year - on - year, with Brazil's cumulative shipments increasing by 683 tons year - on - year, Australia's cumulative shipments decreasing by 661 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative shipments decreasing by 196 tons year - on - year [67]. - The arrival volume of 47 ports increased week - on - week, at a moderately low level compared with the same period in the past three years. The current arrival volume was 2535.5 tons, an increase of 122 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in July was 2535.5 tons, a decrease of 59 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 20 tons compared with last year. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 2528 tons year - on - year, with Australia's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 575 tons year - on - year, Brazil's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 392 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative arrivals decreasing by 1560 tons year - on - year [70]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased last week, with an average daily output of 239.81 tons/day, a decrease of 1.04 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 9.22 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.52 tons/day compared with last year [73]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the average daily port transaction volume last week was 90.1 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week. Due to the sharp rise in the previous period, the market's fear of high prices resurfaced, and the overall transaction volume declined. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished stocks as needed, and the procurement volume decreased with the decline in pig iron production [76]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory of 47 ports decreased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14346.89 tons, a decrease of 139 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 1264 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1359 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year [79]. - In terms of downstream inventory, on July 10th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new statistical caliber was 2814.74 tons, an increase of 13.80 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.42 tons, a decrease of 5.81 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 25.04, an increase of 1.35 compared with the previous period. The total steel mill ore powder inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the price was relatively high, and the steel procurement rhythm was slow [82]. 3.2.5 Shipping The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.54 US dollars/ton, rising 0.15 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 19.33 US dollars/ton, rising 0.75 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost increased slightly [85]. 3.2.6 Spread The 9 - 1 spread was 27.5, widening 2 compared with last week, and the overall change was not significant. The 9 - 1 spread was at a moderately low level, and the overall spread structure was relatively flat. The 09 - contract was at a discount of 9, at a moderately low level. The spread narrowed 5 last week. Recently, the futures price rose sharply, and the spot price might follow the decline of finished steel products later. The iron ore basis was expected to expand slightly [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Fundamentally, the Fed's policy shift to easing after its June meeting minutes, with most expecting two rate cuts this year and a high probability in September, boosts precious metal prices. Trade tensions and tariff policies increase the demand and safe - haven premium for gold, while silver benefits from strong industrial demand and financial attributes due to a 50% tariff on copper and Fed rate - cut expectations [2]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories declined, global gold reserves continued to rise, China's central bank increased gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, ETF fund inflows into gold and silver slowed, and hedge funds increased their long - position in gold [2]. - For strategies, the price of Shanghai gold is long - term bullish, with short - term high - level oscillations. Mid - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver shows a slight short - term increase, and mid - term, it is advisable to hold long positions or buy when it dips to the lower edge of the oscillation range [2]. Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: The spot price of London gold increased by 0.61%, COMEX gold futures by 0.71%, while the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 0.33%. The spot price of London silver rose by 1.67%, COMEX silver futures by 5.22%, and the Shanghai silver main contract by 1.36%. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.10% and 0.87% respectively. COMEX gold total positions increased by 1.25%, and speculative net long positions by 0.49%. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 0.47%, and speculative net long positions by 7.70% [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Both the domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios decreased last week, approaching 80 but still significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price is undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper may increase silver demand, and the silver price has upward potential [8]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spread**: The domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver narrowed last week. Affected by US tariff policies, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and precious metal prices were boosted [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rebounded slightly after hitting a low but remained below 98. A stronger US dollar exerts some upward pressure on precious metals, while trade tensions support precious metal prices [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries increased last week. Market expectations of a looser Fed policy provide a lower - bound support for precious metal prices [14]. - **Inflation and Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: In May, the rebound of commodity inflation was lower than expected. The Fed's internal views on tariff - driven inflation are divided, and most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, which supports precious metal prices [19]. - **US Key Economic Data**: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the service PMI was 50.8, both better than expected. Retail and food service sales declined year - on - year. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the PCE price index by 2.3%, and CPI inflation remained stable. In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, non - farm employment increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. In May, job vacancies unexpectedly rose to 7.77 million [22][25][28]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends**: 32% of central banks plan to increase gold investment in the next 12 - 24 months. In Q1 2025, global central banks net - bought 244 tons of gold. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and central bank gold - buying supports precious metal prices [29]. - **Fed June Meeting Minutes**: There were significant differences among participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, with a high probability in September [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US sent tariff letters to trading partners, with a 50% tariff on Brazilian products. The 50% tariff on copper provides an opportunity for silver to make up for lost ground [31]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 10,000 lots to 203,000 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 49,000 lots to 58,500 lots [34]. - **ETF Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14,758.52 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs slowed [35]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 36.7471 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.87% to 494.9197 million ounces. Silver has room for continuous price increases due to industrial demand [39]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased slightly year - on - year, and the global silver shortage is expected to narrow in 2025 [43]. - **This Week's Key Events**: This week, important events include China's press conference on H1 2025 import and export, US CPI, PPI, and other economic data, which will provide more basis for the Fed's monetary policy [45][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The July USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market continues to face pressure. The US corn market is expected to remain in a state of bumper harvest, which will suppress the US corn futures market. In the domestic market, the wheat price is supported by state reserve purchases, but the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply are dragging down the spot price. In the medium to long term, there may be a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, but the supply pressure will be high in the fourth quarter, so the corn price may rise first and then fall [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - This week, the corn price continued to decline. In the US market, the July USDA report showed a decrease in the expected corn production, consumption, and ending inventory. The good harvest outlook will keep the US corn futures market under pressure. In the domestic market, the end of the wheat harvest and state reserve purchases support the wheat price. The corn market is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply at processing enterprises are pressuring the spot price. In terms of demand, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the off - season for livestock and processing industries restricts demand. The strategy is that the July USDA report is bearish, and the domestic corn futures market will remain weak in the short term. In the medium to long term, the corn price may rise first and then fall [6]. 3.2 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 412.25 cents per bushel, down 25 points from last week, a weekly decline of 5.72%. The C2509 corn closed at 2306 yuan per ton, down 47 points from last week, a weekly decline of 2.00% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Balance Sheet**: The US corn planting area was reduced by 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, production was reduced by 115 million bushels to 15.705 billion bushels, feed consumption was reduced by 50 million bushels, and ending inventory was reduced by 90 million bushels to 1.66 billion bushels [12][19]. - **US Corn Weather**: In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low [12]. - **US Corn Growth**: As of the week of July 6, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [12][22]. - **US Corn Exports**: As of the week of July 3, the net sales of US corn for the 2024/2025 season were 1.262 million tons, up from 533,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 889,000 tons, down from 940,000 tons the previous week [12][26]. - **Feed Enterprises**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, down 0.38 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [12][30]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a decrease of 18,500 tons from last week. As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 443,600 tons, an increase of 1.88% [34][38]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 259,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,800 tons; the shipping volume was 41,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 1,300 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 54,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from last week; the imported barley was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week [40]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets had significant rebounds last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The macro - expectation trading remains strong before the Politburo meeting, and the fundamental supply has not fully recovered, while the demand shows certain resilience. The coking coal and coke spot prices have started to increase, and the futures - cash resonance market is expected to continue [4][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to close all previous short positions and wait for the end of the rebound [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The coke futures rebounded significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The first round of spot price increase has started and is expected to be implemented this week. The coke 09 contract rose 5.81% to 1519.5 as of Friday's close [4][7][10]. - The spot prices of coke in different regions showed different trends. Some remained stable, while the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke decreased by 3 US dollars/ton [11]. - The freight rates for coke transportation remained stable [18]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operation rate of coking enterprises continued to decline, and the supply has not recovered. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 64.08 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from the previous week [24][26]. 3.1.3 Demand - Steel mills increased their procurement, and the inventory of coking plants decreased smoothly. As of July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [33][35]. - The speculative sentiment was good, the export profit remained positive, and the daily trading volume of building materials spot slightly improved. Although the export profit of coke will decline slightly after the first - round price increase, it will still remain positive, but the proportion of coke exports in demand is very low [36][38]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills and ports increased their inventories, while the upstream coking plants reduced their inventories, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 930.96 tons, with the port inventory increasing by 8.96 tons to 200.08 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory decreasing by 9.02 tons to 93.08 tons, and the 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 0.31 tons to 637.80 tons [39][41][44]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coking coal futures rebounded more strongly than coke, causing the coking profit on the coke futures market to decline slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous week, and the coking profit of the coke 09 contract decreased by 9.05 yuan/ton to 332.6 yuan/ton [49][51]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 86.5 to - 260.74 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11 to - 28.5 [53][55]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The coking coal futures rose significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The coking coal 09 contract rose 7.41% to 913 as of Friday's close [4][58]. - The spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends. The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian coal at some ports changed, and the CFR price of Australian coking coal decreased slightly [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply in the producing areas recovered slowly, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were still under production cuts. As of July 10, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 62.32%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 52.58 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons from the previous week [64][66][69]. - The import volume of coking coal decreased. The opening of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia led to a 5 - day closure of the port, reducing the import of Mongolian coal. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 43.79 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [70][72]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The upstream inventory decreased, coking enterprises replenished their stocks, port inventory increased, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, the total coking coal inventory increased by 4.53 tons to 25.7117 million tons, with the mine enterprise inventory decreasing by 32.43 tons to 3.7718 million tons, the port inventory increasing by 17.37 tons to 3.2164 million tons, the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants decreasing by 17.91 tons to 1.9707 million tons, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increasing by 44.17 tons to 8.9235 million tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreasing by 6.67 tons to 7.8293 million tons [73][75][78]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 43.5 to - 68 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 16 to - 33 [88][90][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and imports are low. However, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand, making it difficult for cotton prices to improve. The Xinjiang new - season cotton is in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture is acceptable, with the recent high - temperature situation in the production area having eased. The strategy is that the USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while the rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market to fluctuate strongly. But weak downstream demand, increased new - season planting area, and the expected alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - This week, cotton fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, with increased planting area, decreased yield per unit, increased production, unchanged total consumption, and increased ending inventory. Globally, cotton production and ending inventory increased slightly. In China, supply and demand are both weak, with continuous consumption of commercial inventory and low imports. The new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature has eased. The USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market, but weak downstream demand and other factors will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. 2. Market Review - As of the close on July 11, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.48%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,885 yuan per ton, up 105 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.76% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Balance Sheet - U.S. Cotton - For the 2025/2026 season, the expected planting area is 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the expected harvested area is 8.66 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 470,000 acres; the expected yield per unit is 809 pounds per acre, a month - on - month decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the expected production is 14.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 600,000 bales; the expected total consumption is 14.2 million bales, unchanged from the previous month; the expected ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 bales [12][15]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Growth - As of the week of July 6, the U.S. cotton good - to - excellent rate was 52%, up from 51% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 14%, up from 9% the previous week, compared with 18% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 15%; the squaring rate was 48%, up from 40% the previous week, compared with 51% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 49% [19]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Exports - As of the week of July 3, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 75,000 bales, compared with 24,000 bales the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 82,000 bales, compared with 107,000 bales the previous week [23]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Operation - As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. The overall operation changed little. The sales of inland spinning mills were slightly worse than those in Xinjiang. Some small inland spinning mills stopped production to handle inventory, while Xinjiang spinning mills maintained stable operation. Inland spinning mills operated at 50% - 70% capacity, and Xinjiang mills at 80% - 90% [27]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Inventory - As of the week of July 10, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.1 days of storage. As of July 10, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. Currently, downstream fabric mills operate at about 30% capacity, are not active in purchasing raw materials, and inventory is still accumulating. Large mills in Xinjiang have an inventory of 35 - 40 days, and inland enterprises have 20 - 28 days [31]. Domestic - Cotton Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.6063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,300 tons (a decrease of 5.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.7978 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 115,000 tons (a decrease of 6.01%); the commercial cotton in inland areas was 428,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,300 tons (a decrease of 1.68%). As of July 10, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.76% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not elaborated in the content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. The centers of soybean and palm oils moved up, while rapeseed oil declined. The USDA July report reflected the impact on US biodiesel and foreign tariffs. The consumption of US biodiesel from soybean oil was increased, soybean crushing was up, exports were down, and inventory was up. The new crop growth was good, and CBOT soybeans were under pressure. In June, Malaysian palm oil production decreased as expected, but the unexpected drop in exports led to a slight inventory build - up. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production resumed growth in early July, and BMD crude palm oil fluctuated. Operationally, the market traded on the decline in June Malaysian palm oil production last week, and both domestic and foreign palm oils continued their strong trend. However, the increase in July production limited its short - term upside. Seek long - term long opportunities on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. In the producing areas, the MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production and exports in June decreased by 4.48% and 10.52% respectively, and inventory increased by 2.41%. In early July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35% and exports increased by 5 - 12%. The USDA report adjusted the 25/26 US soybean exports, crushing, and inventory. In China, the weekly trading volume of soybean and palm oils was average. New palm oil purchase contracts were added, and soybean oil inventory reached 102 tons while palm oil inventory stopped increasing. The strategy is to seek long - term long opportunities on dips as the short - term upside of palm oil is limited by the increase in July production [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, US soybeans tested the 1000 mark, the centers of domestic and foreign palm oils moved up, Dalian soybean oil stopped falling and rebounded, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil's center of gravity moved down [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA July Report**: The 25/26 US soybean exports were estimated to be down 70 million bushels, crushing up 50 million bushels, and ending inventory up 15 million bushels. The 25/26 US soybean oil biofuel consumption was 15.5 billion pounds [12][13]. - **US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate**: As of the week ending July 6, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as the previous week [16]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium**: Last week, the Brazilian soybean premium rose to a maximum of 155 cents per bushel, hitting an 8 - month high [17]. - **June Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: In June, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.69 million tons (down 4.48% month - on - month), exports were 1.26 million tons (down 10.52% month - on - month), and inventory was 2.03 million tons (up 2.41% month - on - month). In early July, production increased by 35% and exports changed from - 28% to 12% [12][20]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Policy**: Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. The US threat of a 32% tariff may reduce Indonesian palm oil exports to the US by 15 - 20% [25]. - **Indian Palm Oil Import**: It was estimated that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% to 953,000 tons, reaching an 11 - month high [28]. - **Domestic Oilseed Crushing Profit**: The price of by - product protein meal rebounded. The spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed reached 200 - 300. The import profit of palm oil was in a slight deficit [31]. - **Oil Mill Operating Rate and Inventory**: In July, the oil mill crushing operating rate declined, and soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed crushing operating rate stopped falling, and rapeseed inventory decreased. As of early July, soybean oil inventory reached 1.02 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory was 760,000 tons, and palm oil inventory was 520,000 tons [34][39][42]. - **Spot Price and Trading Volume of Oils and Fats**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats diverged. As of July 11, the price of soybean oil rose slightly, palm oil rose, and rapeseed oil fell. The overall trading volume of oils and fats was average [46][49]. 4. Spread Tracking - No specific content provided other than the section title [56]

Report Information - Report Name: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025-7-14 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Overall Rating: Oscillating [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply: National egg spot prices have generally risen recently. The traditional price increase from July to August is driven by factors such as accelerated chicken culling during the rainy season, Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling, and decreased egg production due to high temperatures. However, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is close to National Day, and the limited industry losses have led to insufficient capacity reduction. The seasonal rebound is expected to be delayed and limited in amplitude [3]. - Demand: This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas increased slightly, the shipping volume in the main production areas fluctuated slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links decreased significantly. As the rainy season nears its end, the egg storage conditions have improved, the purchasing意愿 of egg merchants has increased, and the sales speed and trading volume in the sales areas have increased [3]. - Profit: The breeding profit has continued to decline, significantly lower than the comprehensive cost, and at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. This week, the egg basis decreased slightly, and the premium of the near-month futures contract is at a historical high [3]. - Price and Volume: Currently, the spread between the near and far futures contracts of eggs has decreased slightly and is at a moderately high level. From the perspective of positions, the institutional positions of the main egg futures contract show a net short and oscillating state [3]. - Strategy: The premium of the near-month contract is at a historical high, and the near end faces significant spot selling pressure. The far end is expected to gradually improve as the capacity reduction expectation strengthens. Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding profit losses, the pattern of weak near and strong far in the egg futures is expected to continue. Operationally, considering that the spread between the near and far futures contracts is at a relatively high level, 9 - 11 and 9 - 12 reverse spreads can still be considered [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Spot Price: Analyzes the main production area price vs. the main sales area price [4][5] - Egg Basis: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [7][8] - Egg Spread: Analyzes the spread between each egg futures contract [10][11] - Futures Institutional Net Position: Analyzes the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September egg futures contract [13][15] Supply Analysis - Laying Hen Inventory: Analyzes the laying hen inventory and its structure [16][17] - Chicken Culling Situation: Analyzes the chicken culling price and the average culling age [18][19] - Replenishment Situation: Analyzes the price of commercial laying hen chicks and the utilization rate of hatching eggs [21][22] - Large and Small Egg Situation: Analyzes the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of the price difference [23][24] Demand Analysis - Shipping Volume and Sales Volume: Analyzes the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas [25][26] - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - Substitutes: Analyzes the seasonal charts of the price ratios of eggs to pork and vegetables [31][33] Profit Analysis - Breeding Profit: Analyzes the current and expected profits and the comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [34][35] - Egg - Feed Price Ratio: Analyzes the egg - feed price ratio, its equilibrium point, and the seasonal chart [37][38]

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-7-14) [2] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Investment Rating - Overall Strategy: The long - term trend of the live pig industry in 2025 is in a pressure period, with a forecast of price decline, but policy regulation may shorten the pressure period and slow down the decline. The operation strategy is to dynamically construct a bull spread for the September live pig contract, with an overall rating of "oscillation" [3] - Supply: Rated as "偏多" (Bullish) [3] - Demand: Rated as "偏空" (Bearish) [3] - Profit: Rated as "中性" (Neutral) [3] - Price and Volume: Rated as "中性" (Neutral) [3] Core View - In the first half of 2025, listed pig enterprises showed obvious differentiation in scale expansion. Leading enterprises consolidated their positions, and some enterprises sought breakthroughs through radical expansion or regional deep - cultivation. Cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and refined operation are the keys to survival in the industry [3] - The average weight of commercial pig slaughter in sample breeding enterprises has been decreasing, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has increased slightly. The leading enterprise, Muyuan, has taken the lead in reducing weight and production capacity in the industry [3] - High - temperature weather and school holidays have a negative impact on pork consumption, which may limit the upward trend of pig prices [3] - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level in the same period of the past four years. The downward space of futures is limited due to a small discount [3] Section Summary Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: Analyzes the price and seasonal chart of live pigs in Henan [4][5] - **Basis**: Analyzes the basis of each live pig futures contract [7][8] - **Spread**: Analyzes the spread between each live pig futures contract [10][11] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: Analyzes the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September live pig futures contract [13][14] Supply Analysis - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory of breeding sows [16][17] - **Piglet Supply**: Analyzes the price ratio of piglets to live pigs in Henan and the number of newborn piglets [19] - **Live Pig Slaughter**: Analyzes the average weight seasonal chart and slaughter structure of commercial pigs in sample breeding enterprises [22][23] - **Standard - Fat Price Difference**: Analyzes the daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price difference [25][26] Demand Analysis - **Live Pig Slaughter**: Analyzes the daily slaughter rate and seasonal profit chart of key live pig slaughter enterprises [27][28] - **Frozen Product Inventory**: Analyzes the storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of frozen products in key slaughter enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the storage rate [30][32] - **Substitutes**: Analyzes the seasonal price ratio of pork to eggs and vegetables [34] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Profit**: Analyzes the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding, as well as the seasonal profit chart of self - breeding and self - raising [36][37] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: Analyzes the pig - grain ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart [39][40]