Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (September 15, 2025): Slow Recovery in Peak - Season Demand, Weak Performance in the Black Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, last week, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken, with the peak - season characteristics not obvious. The market was disturbed by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery speed. For iron ore, the supply tightened last week, while the demand rebounded significantly, and the supply - demand structure improved notably. In the short term, the market may still trade on steel mills' resumption of production and replenishment, and the ore price may maintain a current oscillating and strengthening trend compared with steel products [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products 1.1 Price - The spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of rebar 01 contract dropped by 16 to 3127, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 to 3220 yuan/ton [5][15] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production increased significantly, while electric furnace production continued to decline. The utilization rate of blast furnace production capacity and daily iron - water output increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.48 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.9 tons [5][18][26] 1.3 Demand - The recovery of building material demand in the peak season was slow, and the domestic demand pressure for plates remained. From September 3rd to 9th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 3.16% week - on - week but decreased by 16.44% year - on - year. The domestic demand for plates was still weak due to factors such as the contraction of manufacturing orders [30][32][35] 1.4 Profit - Blast furnace profits narrowed significantly, and electric furnace losses widened. The steel mill profitability rate decreased by 2.60 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of 76 independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 151 yuan/ton [36][39] 1.5 Inventory - The accumulation speed of building material social inventory slowed down, and plate inventory decreased slightly. Rebar total social inventory increased by 18.6 tons to 487.2 tons, and hot - rolled coil sample total inventory decreased by 1 ton to 373.3 tons [41][44][47] 1.6 Basis - The basis narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot was expected to widen. The rebar basis dropped by 34 to 83, and the hot - rolled coil basis dropped by 14 to 46 [48][50] 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The far - month premium continued, and the inverted situation was difficult to reverse. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar deepened to - 62, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 4 [52][54] 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market widened significantly and was expected to remain at a high level. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market widened by 40 to 237, and the spot spread increased by 60 to 200 [55][57] Iron Ore 2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The 01 contract of iron ore increased by 10 to 799.5, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port increased by 10 to 793 yuan/ton [60][62] 2.2 Supply - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply tightened. The weekly average shipment of Australia was 1822.4 tons, and that of Brazil was 507.2 tons. The arrival of resources decreased month - on - month, and the short - term supply tightened [63][65][69] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The iron - water output increased significantly, and the demand for iron ore recovered month - on - month. The daily average iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons week - on - week. Speculative demand: The port trading volume increased significantly, with the daily average trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports increasing by 11.9 tons [72][74][78] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the previous loose supply. As of September 12th, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons month - on - month. Steel mill inventory increased slightly, and downstream actively replenished inventory for the resumption of production [79][81][84] 2.5 Shipping - Shipping prices increased slightly. The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.295 dollars to 10.295 dollars, and that from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.14 dollars to 23.71 dollars [85][87] 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore decreased slightly, and the 01 contract discount widened slightly. The 1 - 5 spread was 22, a decrease of 2.5 month - on - month [88][89] Strategy Recommendations - For steel products, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider the opportunity to short the ratio of rebar to iron ore. For iron ore, aggressive investors can consider short - term long positions on pullbacks. For arbitrage, consider shorting rebar and going long on iron ore. For spot - futures trading, industrial customers are advised to hold spot and establish a small number of short positions on the futures market when the price rebounds, and form a positive arbitrage position [5][9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weak, but the upward movement is still restricted. Although there are speculative factors such as anti - involution, the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in supply after the parade continue to limit the upward movement of the market. It is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying coking coal on dips [4]. - As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.56% to 1625.5, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.51% to 1144.5 [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The first - round reduction of spot prices has been implemented, and the second - round reduction has begun. The trucking freight has increased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi Jiexiu quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price dropped from 1380 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton [7][10][18]. - **Supply**: Most of the previously shut - down or restricted coking plants have resumed production, and coke supply has increased. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of all independent coking enterprises was 75.92%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78 percentage points, and the daily average coke output was 66.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.44 tons [27][29]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, and the rigid demand for raw materials is still supported. However, after the parade, logistics has improved, steel mills' arrivals have increased, and some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Speculative sentiment is average, export profit has changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials is lower than the same period in previous years [35][39][41]. - **Inventory**: Inventories have increased across all sectors, and the total inventory has risen. As of September 12, the total coke inventory increased by 10.96 tons week - on - week to 906.24 tons [42][44]. - **Profit**: The profitability of coking enterprises has been compressed, and the coke futures profit has fluctuated. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [55][57]. - **Valuation**: The premium of coke 01 has expanded, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 11.3 to - 95.88 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28 to - 137 [59][61]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The spot prices have shown mixed trends. For example, the CFR price of Peak Downs hard coking coal from Australia increased by 4.6 dollars/ton to 202.05 dollars/ton [64][67]. - **Supply**: The supply from production areas has increased, the output of coal washing plants has slightly increased, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Mongolian border has remained high, but the cumulative import of coking coal from January to July 2025 has decreased year - on - year. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points, and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [70][75][78]. - **Inventory**: Inventories have decreased across all sectors, and the total inventory has declined. As of September 12, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 62.03 tons week - on - week to 2483.50 tons [79][81]. - **Valuation**: The coking coal 01 is basically at par, and the 1 - 5 spread has weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 increased by 14 to - 13.5 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 9 to - 81 [105][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA is expected to continue its weak oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Although the cost side provides some support and there is a mild recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with an expected increase in domestic supply, the balance sheet may shift from destocking to stockpiling. Also, the processing fee is at a low level [6]. - MEG is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. It is in a destocking cycle, but the total supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning, and the demand side shows a slow increase in polyester load. Attention should be paid to the lower support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. Thus, international oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices. As of September 12, the Asian PX closing price was $831.33 per ton CFR China, up $1.33 per ton from September 5 [16]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: There was no device change this week, and production was stable. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 84.63%, with a 0% week - on - week change. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 74.71%, up 0.27% week - on - week [19]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 12, the PX - naphtha price spread was $232.8 per ton, down $0.92 per ton from September 5. With the increase in downstream PTA operating rate, PX is entering a destocking phase, and the PX - naphtha price spread is expected to rebound [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the restart of previously overhauled PTA devices and mediocre terminal orders during the traditional peak season, the PTA balance sheet is still destocking. However, due to overall poor commodity performance and concerns about future supply increases, PTA oscillated narrowly this week. As of September 12, the PTA spot price was 4,565 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 79 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization reached 74.95%, up 4.30% week - on - week and down 6.33% year - on - year. The restart of previously overhauled devices led to an increase in capacity utilization. In September, with the planned and expected restart of multiple devices, the domestic PTA device capacity utilization is expected to reach around 78% [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee has weakened again due to increased domestic supply and slow terminal recovery. However, with a low valuation, the further downward space is limited, and it is expected to continue its weak pattern in the short - term [30]. - **Supply - Demand in September**: In September, with insufficient PTA device overhauls and the restart of overhauled devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from destocking to a loose balance [33]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has no obvious change, and the main port inventory has reached a new low this year. However, due to new capacity commissioning and high domestic operating rates, the price decline has widened, once breaking through the 4,400 - yuan integer mark. As of September 12, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,378 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,460 yuan per ton [38]. - **Domestic Production**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 66.55%, down 0.90% week - on - week. The integrated device capacity utilization was 66.92%, up 0.09% week - on - week, and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 65.96%, down 2.47% week - on - week. In September, with the restart of some domestic existing devices and the end of the overhaul season, the overall ethylene glycol production is expected to continue to rise [42]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 11.28 tons. As of September 11, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 36.32 tons, down 2.36 tons from September 8 and 1.31 tons from September 4 [43]. - **Processing Profit**: With the ethylene glycol main port inventory remaining at a low level, but new device commissioning and a pessimistic supply outlook, the ethylene glycol price declined this week. With raw material prices showing different trends, the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process showed both increases and decreases. As of September 12, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $102.41 per ton, down $3.99 per ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 53.39 yuan per ton, up 3.31 yuan per ton from last week [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Polyester Production**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization was 87.9%, up 0.56% week - on - week. There is no clear expected change in polyester device supply next week, and domestic polyester production is expected to remain stable [51]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, the polyester operating rate fluctuated narrowly. In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and overhauled devices, and the expected commissioning of multiple new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [54]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Filament**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 91.43%, up 0.15% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was stable at 86.82%, up 0.37% week - on - week. The capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 81.99%, up 1.57% week - on - week [57]. - **Product Inventory**: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the overall sales level is average. The finished product inventory of polyester filament factories has slightly accumulated this week [60]. - **Cash Flow of Polyester Products**: With the decrease in polymerization cost, the transaction center of polyester products has also decreased, but the decline is smaller than that of raw materials, resulting in a partial repair of cash flow [62]. - **Weaving Load**: As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.42%, the same as the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.55 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week. Order recovery is less than expected, and the weaving load is expected to remain stable [67]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. International oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices [68]. - **Supply Side**: PTA capacity utilization has increased this week. MEG total capacity utilization has decreased slightly, with a slight increase in integrated device capacity utilization and a decrease in coal - based capacity utilization [68]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester capacity utilization has increased, and the chemical fiber weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has remained the same. Order recovery is less than expected, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state [68]. - **Inventory**: PTA has a strong expectation of future supply - demand stockpiling. MEG port inventory in the East China main port area has decreased [68].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous de - stocking of port inventory, stable high external quotations, the entry of the downstream white cardboard market into the traditional peak season, and a slight improvement in overall demand, but with low profits for base paper and limited rebound of the futures market due to the sentiment of the chemical sector, it is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 4950 - 5210 this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - Last week, the spot market price of pulp decreased slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star dropped to 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish dropped to 4180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-0.48%). The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained flat [10][14]. - **Pulp Futures Review** - Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated and declined in a 200 - point range, closing at 4990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton (-1.42%). The weighted trading volume was 1.72 million lots, an increase of 345,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 366,000 lots, an increase of 21,100 lots [16]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison** - The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the futures contract widened by 2 yuan/ton to 660 yuan/ton compared with last week [20]. - **Log Futures Review** - The main log futures contract 2511 oscillated in a range last week, closing at 798.0 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 2.0 yuan/cubic meter (-0.25%). The weighted trading volume was 42,300 lots, a decrease of 21,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 22,100 lots, a decrease of 200 lots [21]. 2. Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production** - Last week, pulp production was 481,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons (-1.23%). It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp this week will be about 207,000 tons and 210,000 tons respectively [23]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp** - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%; that of chemical mechanical pulp was 81.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable next week [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production** - In August 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.127 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (0.14%); wood pulp production was 1.816 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (0.17%); non - wood pulp production remained flat [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp** - In August 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 892,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (-0.45%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 924,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons (0.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% [33]. - **Monthly Production Profits of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp** - In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 526 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.3 yuan/ton (2.59%); the production loss of chemical mechanical pulp decreased by 3.3 yuan/ton to - 304.6 yuan/ton [37]. - **Pulp Imports** - In August 2025, pulp imports were 2.6529 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 223,800 tons (-7.78%) and a year - on - year decrease of 154,500 tons (-5.5%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 24.1083 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14 million tons (5%) [38]. 3. Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization** - **Living Paper**: Last week, the production of domestic living paper was 280,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons (-0.25%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the production this week will be about 279,000 tons [40]. - **Offset Paper**: Last week, the production of offset paper was 205,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (5.13%), and the capacity utilization rate was 55.7%, a week - on - week increase of 2.8%. It is expected that the production this week will remain at about 205,000 tons [44]. - **Coated Paper**: Last week, the production of coated paper was 78,000 tons, remaining flat. The capacity utilization rate was 57.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. It is expected that the production this week will be about 82,000 tons [47]. - **White Cardboard**: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 340,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons (0.59%), and the capacity utilization rate was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. It is expected that the production this week will be about 350,000 tons [50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit** - **Living Paper and White Cardboard**: Last week, the gross profit of living paper was 191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton (-2.05%), and the gross profit of social white cardboard decreased by 48% [53]. - **Offset Paper and Coated Paper**: Last week, the average cost of offset paper decreased by 4.3 yuan/ton to 4,889.1 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 38 yuan/ton. The average cost of coated paper decreased by 3.9 yuan/ton to 4,787 yuan/ton, and the gross profit decreased by 82 yuan/ton to 388 yuan/ton [56]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption** - In August 2025, the actual consumption of pulp was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,000 tons (2.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 99,000 tons (3.03%) [57]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis** - **Living Paper**: The prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper in Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangxi remained stable or increased slightly last week [60]. - **Cultural Paper**: The prices of offset paper and coated paper in Shandong decreased last week [60]. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: The prices of white board paper in Shandong and Tianjin remained stable, and most white cardboard prices in Jiangsu remained stable, with one variety decreasing by 2.15% [64]. 4. Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory** - Currently, the overall port inventory is de - stocking. The total inventory of major ports is 2.062 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons (-0.19%). Qingdao Port's inventory increased by 3,000 tons (0.21%) to 1.418 million tons. Changshu Port's inventory decreased by 18,000 tons (3.73%) to 464,000 tons, and Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 8,000 tons (13.33%) to 68,000 tons [67][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts** - Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 234,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,665 tons (-0.71%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 759 tons (-0.35%) to 218,400 tons [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second - round production increase of OPEC+ has been confirmed to start. EIA weekly data shows a signal of peak demand. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will increase OPEC+'s enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upper limit of the oil price. The mid - to - long - term idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, take advantage of the rebound and building opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation and interest - rate cut sentiment [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From September 1 - 5, international oil prices first rose and then fell. By September 5, WTI and Brent settled at $63.92/barrel (-0.38%) and $67.48/barrel (-1.01%) respectively; INE SC settled at 486.22 yuan/barrel (+1.14%) [10]. - Weekly price trends show that from August 29 to September 5, WTI fell by $2.1 (-3.34%), Brent by $2.6 (-3.85%), Oman by $1.1 (-1.61%), and SC by 0.6 yuan/barrel (-0.12%) [13]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - The US August non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, which reignited the sentiment of interest - rate cuts. By September 5, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound, and the VIX volatility remained at a relatively low level [16]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility fell this week, and the US dollar index also declined. By September 5, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 33.33, and the US dollar index was at 97.7357. The crude oil volatility first rose and then fell, and the US dollar index continued to fluctuate downward due to the renewed market expectation of interest - rate cuts [20]. 1.4 Net Long Positions in Crude Oil Funds - As of September 2, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 0.27 million contracts to 2.73 million contracts, a weekly increase of 11%, while speculative net long positions decreased by 0.97 million contracts to 7.51 million contracts, a weekly decrease of 11.5% [23]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in July, rising by 26.2 barrels/day to 2754.3 barrels/day. Most countries have started to increase production, but the production of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 8.4 barrels/day lower than planned in June [29]. - According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries decreased by 32 barrels/day to 2288 barrels/day in July. The over - production of some countries decreased compared with the previous month [33]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 17 barrels/day to 952.6 barrels/day in July, while Iran's production decreased by 1.2 barrels/day to 324.5 barrels/day [35]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in July was 912 barrels/day, a month - on - month increase of 9.5 barrels/day; according to IEA statistics, it was 920 barrels/day, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 barrels/day. The production is gradually recovering but remains at a very low level [42]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of September 5, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 69 year - on - year. The rig count in the Permian Basin decreased significantly, which may limit the growth space of crude oil production [46]. - As of the week of August 29, US crude oil production decreased marginally to 1342.3 barrels/day, a decrease of 1.6 barrels/day from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 0.92% [49]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Petroleum Product Demand - US petroleum product demand showed a signal of decline. The single - week demand for refined oil decreased, but the four - week average demand increased. As of August 29, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 2128.2 barrels/day, a week - on - week increase of 13.2 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 2.47% [53]. - The demand growth rate of refined oil slowed down. The four - week average demand for gasoline increased by 1.9 barrels/day to 905 barrels/day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.78%; the average demand for distillates increased by 1.2 barrels/day to 389.4 barrels/day, a year - on - year increase of 4.23%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 0.1 barrels/day to 179 barrels/day, a year - on - year increase of 4.37% [59]. - This week, the gasoline crack spread in the US declined, while the heating oil crack spread rebounded. By September 5, the gasoline crack spread was $20.63/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.18/barrel [62]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - By September 5, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.71/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $30.55/barrel. The crack spreads have recovered recently as the distillate demand has entered the seasonal upward channel [66]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - China's crude oil demand is gradually entering the peak season. In July, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.998 million tons year - on - year to 63.06 million tons (+6.77%); the import volume increased by 4.864 million tons year - on - year to 47.204 million tons (+11.49%) [70]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - Three major international institutions have different views on this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintains last month's forecast, IEA continues to lower the demand forecast, and EIA raises the forecast for global oil demand growth. In July, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 89 barrels/day (↑), 68 barrels/day (↓), and 130 barrels/day (-) respectively [74]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories rebounded. As of August 29, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 241,500 barrels to 420.71 million barrels, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%; SPR inventories increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.71 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels to 24.222 million barrels [75]. - The net import volume of crude oil rebounded, but the refinery operating rate declined. As of the week of August 29, the US net import volume of crude oil increased by 43.4 barrels/day to 285.8 barrels/day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 1.1 barrels/day to 1686.9 barrels/day, and the refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 94.3% [79]. - The WTI monthly spread maintained a back structure, but the spread indicators continued to weaken. By September 5, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.41/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.93/barrel [82]. 4.2 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread also maintained a back structure. By September 5, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.39/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.93/barrel. The monthly spread continued to shrink on a weekly basis [84]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to EIA's August forecast, this year's global oil supply is 105.36 million barrels per day, and the demand is 103.72 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared with last month. Although EIA raised the demand forecast, due to OPEC+'s early termination of the 2.2 million barrels/day voluntary production - cut plan, the supply pressure this year is expected to be greater [87]. 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the US fundamental data shows that the single - week peak - season demand may have reached its peak, and the term structure continued to flatten compared with last week. Brent can support a stronger positive - carry structure due to the strong diesel demand and good crack profits in the early stage. However, as the peak - season demand gradually weakens and OPEC accelerates production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [90].

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-09-08): Weak Demand in Peak Season, Divergent Trends in Black Commodities [1] Report Author - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group. Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices declined slightly, and the futures market fluctuated weakly [4] - **Supply**: Blast furnace production dropped significantly, and electric furnace production continued to decline [4] - **Inventory**: The accumulation rate of building material social inventory slowed down, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace [4] - **Demand**: Building material demand rebounded, while plate apparent demand declined significantly [4] - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits narrowed, and electric furnace losses widened [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 contract widened slightly, and the 1-5 spread remained inverted [4] - **Summary**: US employment data cooled significantly, China's anti-involution policy caused ripples, and the rumored real estate inventory acquisition policy might provide some support. Overall, industry sentiment was strong. Last week, blast furnace operations decreased, hot metal production dropped significantly, and electric furnace operations declined synchronously. Affected by Tangshan's production restrictions, overall supply decreased. In terms of demand, funds available at construction sites improved, leading to a rebound in building material demand, while plate demand declined due to significant production cuts by rolling mills. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products accumulated at an accelerated pace, mainly dragged down by plates. In general, the supply-demand structure of steel continued to weaken last week, with unobvious peak-season characteristics. However, considering the impact of production restrictions, attention should be paid to the demand recovery speed next week. For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single-sided steel trades and consider shorting the steel-ore ratio [4] Iron Ore - **Price**: Ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the futures market moved sideways [4] - **Supply**: Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and arrivals increased month-on-month [4] - **Demand**: Blast furnace production declined, leading to a month-on-month decrease in demand [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly, while downstream total inventory decreased slightly [4] - **Shipping**: Shipping costs both declined [4] - **Spread**: The 1-5 spread increased slightly, and the discount of the 01 contract narrowed [4] - **Summary**: After the end of Tangshan's production restrictions, there is an expectation of blast furnace复产. Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and arrivals also rose, resulting in a relatively loose supply. In terms of demand, affected by Tangshan's production restrictions, hot metal production dropped significantly, leading to an obvious decline in iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of a rapid recovery. In terms of inventory, the port throughput decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of iron ore increased month-on-month last week, while demand declined significantly, resulting in a looser supply-demand structure. In the short term, the market may still trade on the expectation of steel mill复产 and restocking. Compared with steel products, ore prices may maintain a current oscillating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, aggressive investors can consider short-term long positions on pullbacks [4] Steel Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar prices first declined and then rose, with a significant rebound on Friday due to strong policy expectations, and market sentiment improved. The 01 rebar contract fell 17 to 3143. Spot prices were slightly weak, with rebar in East China quoted at 3240 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 30 [10] Supply - **Blast Furnace**: According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.80 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.77 percentage points. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.19 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 228.84 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.29 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6.23 tons [13] - **Electric Furnace**: As of September 5, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.74%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 23.04 percentage points. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnaces nationwide continued to decline, mainly due to the relatively strong scrap steel prices, which significantly narrowed the profits of short-process steel mills, and some losses further expanded, leading some to choose to reduce production and conduct maintenance [20] - **Building Materials and Plates**: Last week, rebar production decreased slightly, with a cumulative decrease of 1.88 tons. Affected by the military parade, hot-rolled production in North China decreased significantly, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.5 tons in sample steel mills. Three steel mills in Northeast and North China had production line maintenance, which was basically scheduled to resume on the 4th, having a significant impact on short-term production [23] Demand - **Building Materials**: From August 27 to September 2, the national cement delivery volume was 2.5775 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.82%. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.53 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.53%. At the terminal, the impact of typhoon weather in South China was still obvious, and the demand recovery speed of construction sites nationwide was slow, with a simultaneous decline in the trading volume of building materials by traders [26] - **Plates**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from July. Although the month-on-month decline in new manufacturing orders and new export orders narrowed, they were still in the contraction period. Coupled with the decline in the demand for base materials due to North China's production restrictions, the overall domestic demand for plates remained weak [29] Profit - The steel mill profitability rate was 61.04%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 56.71 percentage points. In the short process, as of September 5, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 3332 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton. The average profit was -141 yuan/ton, and the off-peak electricity profit was -44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 1 yuan/ton [33] Inventory - **Building Materials**: As of September 5, the rebar social inventory accumulated slightly, with a cumulative increase of 1.72 tons. In terms of social inventory, except for a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 tons in Northwest China, other regions showed inventory accumulation, with the largest accumulation in East and North China, with week-on-week increases of 5.47 tons and 5.75 tons respectively [37] - **Plates**: In terms of hot-rolled coil social inventory, except for a week-on-week decrease of 0.65 tons in Northeast China, other regions showed inventory accumulation, with the largest accumulation in North and Central China, with week-on-week increases of 3.03 tons and 2.05 tons respectively. In terms of factory inventory, the factory inventory increased slightly by 0.3 tons last week, mainly concentrated in the East China region [40] Basis - Last week, the rebar basis rose 27 to 117, and the hot-rolled coil basis rose 36 to 60. Currently, the basis of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is at a relatively low level. In terms of trading, considering that the peak-season demand for rebar has not fully recovered, attention should be paid to the trading opportunity of the rebar basis widening [44] Inter-period Spread - The 1-5 spread of rebar remained at -48, unchanged from last week, and the inversion continued. In terms of the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coil, the inversion deepened by 4 to -10. In the short term, affected by the pressure of the 10th contract warehouse receipts on the spot market and the poor real demand, continuous inversion occurred, and the inversion situation was difficult to reverse [48] Inter-commodity Spread - The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar on the futures market continued to widen by 9 to 197. In terms of the spot spread, it rose 50 to 140. In terms of trading, attention should be paid to the trading opportunity when the 01 contract spread expands to over 200, choosing to expand the spread on pullbacks and being cautious about chasing long positions [51] Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range and rose slightly. The 01 contract rose 2 to 789.5, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 4 to 783 yuan/ton. Market sentiment improved slightly, and the overall market showed a rebound trend [57] Supply - **Global Shipment**: According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current value was 35.568 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.41 million tons. The weekly average global shipment volume in August was 32.775 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.04 million tons [60] - **Arrival**: The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.83 million tons. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 26.009 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 0.35 million tons [66] Demand - **Rigid Demand**: Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills decreased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills was 228,840 tons per day, a week-on-week decrease of 11,290 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared with the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 6,200 tons per day [69] - **Speculative Demand**: In terms of downstream procurement, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 873,000 tons per day, a week-on-week decrease of 143,000 tons, mainly affected by blast furnace maintenance and production cuts [73] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 144.2572 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 380,000 tons, a decrease of 11.85 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 16.63 million tons lower than the same period last year [76] - **Downstream Inventory**: As of September 5, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills nationwide surveyed by Mysteel was 89.3987 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 673,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8067 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 154,300 tons. The inventory consumption ratio was 31.85 days, a week-on-week increase of 1.43 days [79] Shipping - Shipping prices both declined. The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao was 10 US dollars, a week-on-week decrease of 0.22 US dollars, and the shipping price from Brazil to Qingdao was 23.7 US dollars, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9 US dollars [83] Spread - The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 5 to 16.9. Currently, the basis level is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunity of the basis widening, but it is expected to start in October. In terms of the spread, the 1-5 spread was 24.5, a week-on-week increase of 1.5, and the overall spread was flat [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA has a weak rebound expectation due to low processing fees, with domestic supply having an incremental expectation, terminal load slowly rising, and tight supply - demand leading to continuous de - stocking and low valuation after continuous decline [1][6]. - MEG has a weak rebound under the expectation of new capacity investment. Although the supply - demand structure is marginally improving and it is in the de - stocking cycle, the supply pressure after the new device is put into production is large, and it is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, increasing the risk of supply surplus. The end of the traditional fuel peak season leads to a seasonal decline in demand, and international oil prices are under pressure. PX prices fall due to weak cost support from oil prices and weak downstream market support. As of September 5, the Asian PX closing price is 830 US dollars/ton CFR China, down 18.67 US dollars/ton from August 29 [18]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, flat compared with last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.45%, also flat. Pay attention to the restart rhythm of the Fuhai Chuang device [22]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of September 5, the PX - naphtha spread is 233.8 US dollars/ton, down 17.54 US dollars/ton from August 29. Next week, PX supply - demand changes are limited, and the spread compression this week is obvious, so the short - term downward space is expected to be limited [26]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the overall PTA supply remains at a low level. Although some polyester enterprises that had been under maintenance restarted, due to weak costs and concerns about future supply increments, PTA oscillated weakly. As of September 5, the PTA spot price is 4585 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 2601 - 74 [29]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate drops to 69.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38%. In September, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic PTA device capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [32]. - **Processing Fees**: The short - term PTA supply - demand remains tight, but there is an expectation of device restart and weak demand, so the PTA processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [36]. - **Supply - Demand in September**: In September, with the restart of maintenance devices and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [38]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: Due to the news of new capacity investment, the supply - side pressure intensifies, and the ethylene glycol market shows a weak trend. As of September 5, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang is 4488 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market is 4480 yuan/ton [42]. - **Domestic Output**: The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate is 67.45%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34%. Some integrated devices restart after maintenance, and the domestic output slightly increases. In September, the overall output of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise [47]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports in East China is 37.63 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons from September 1 and 3.69 tons from August 28 [50]. - **Processing Profits**: The processing profits of ethylene glycol vary by process. As of September 5, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol is - 98.42 US dollars/ton, down 10.54 US dollars/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is - 56.7 yuan/ton, down 22.79 yuan/ton from last week [53]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Output Expectation**: The polyester weekly average capacity utilization rate is 87.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. Next week, some previously reduced - production devices are expected to restart, and the domestic polyester output is expected to increase slightly [57]. - **Polyester Capacity Utilization in September**: In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the restart of some devices, and the expected commissioning of new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to rise [60]. - **Polyester Filament Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament drops slightly. The capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber remains stable, and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips increases [63]. - **Product Inventory**: Although some enterprises have high sales volume, the overall sales level is average, and the polyester finished product inventory accumulates slightly [64]. - **Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreases, the polyester filament quotation is relatively firm, and the profits of most models are repaired, but the overall profit level of DTY is poor [67]. - **Terminal Market**: The terminal market sentiment improves, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions rises, the average order days increase, and the inventory is slightly reduced, but the inventory level is still high [72]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: International oil prices are weak, and PX prices fall due to weak cost and downstream support [74]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreases, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increases [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate increases, the terminal weaving starting rate rises, and the order days increase [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and MEG port inventory decreases [75].

Report Title - Paper Pulp: The traditional peak season in the downstream is lackluster, and the pulp price will mainly fluctuate within a range [1] Report Date - Zhengxin Futures Paper Pulp Weekly Report 20250908 [2] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous destocking of port inventories, the acceptable ability to receive new foreign offers, the planned resumption of production of some downstream paper mills that had shut down, and the entry of the white cardboard market into the traditional peak season, the overall demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is less than expected. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 4,950 - 5,210 this week [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star rose by 20 yuan/ton (or +0.35%) to 5,720 yuan/ton, and the price of Northern Wood rose by 50 yuan/ton (or +0.83%) to 6,050 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish and Bird both rose by 50 yuan/ton (or +1.19% and +1.2% respectively) to 4,200 yuan/ton. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non-wood pulp remained flat [11][15]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 rebounded slightly within a 100-point range last week, closing at 5,062 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (or +0.88%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.375 million lots, a decrease of 116,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 345,000 lots, a decrease of 11,600 lots [16]. - **Pulp Futures-Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 658 yuan/ton, a reduction of 24 yuan/ton compared to last week [20]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a downward trend last week, closing at 800.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 20.0 yuan/cubic meter (or -2.44%) compared to last week. The weighted trading volume was 63,200 lots, a decrease of 8,300 lots, and the weighted open interest was 22,300 lots, an increase of 3,300 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 487,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons (or +1.04%). The production of broadleaf pulp was 211,000 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 211,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic production of broadleaf pulp will be about 206,000 tons and the production of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 209,000 tons this week [5][23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broadleaf pulp was 78.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8%, while the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 82.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6% due to the addition of new sample capacity [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.127 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (or +0.14%). The production of wood pulp was 1.816 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (or +0.17%), and the production of non - wood pulp was 311,000 tons, remaining flat [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Broadleaf Pulp**: In August 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 892,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (or -0.45%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%. The production of broadleaf pulp was 924,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons (or +0.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% [33]. - **Monthly Production Margin**: In August 2025, the production margin of broadleaf pulp was 526 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.3 yuan/ton (or +2.59%), and a year - on - year decrease of 757.92 yuan/ton (or -59.0%). The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 304.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [37]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In July 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.8768 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons (or -5.08%), and a year - on - year increase of 552,200 tons (or +23.75%). The cumulative import volume from January to July 2025 was 21.4554 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.295 million tons (or +6.5%) [38]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 281,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (or -0.11%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09% [42]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the production of coated paper was 78,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons (or -1.27%), and the capacity utilization rate was 57.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The production of offset paper was 195,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons (or -4.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 52.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.7% [45]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: - **White Cardboard and White Board Paper**: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 338,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons (or +5.3%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.92%. The production of white board paper was 174,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons (or -3.87%), and the capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.91% [48]. - **Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper**: Last week, the production of corrugated paper was 470,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons (or -0.53%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The production of box board paper was 623,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons (or -1.47%), and the capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04% [51]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: - **Tissue Paper**: The prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper in Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangxi remained flat last week [52]. - **Cultural Paper**: The price of 70g offset paper Chenming Yunbao in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or -1.02%) to 4,850 yuan/ton, and the price of 157g coated paper Chenming Xuelu decreased by 100 yuan/ton (or -1.96%) to 5,000 yuan/ton [52]. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: The prices of white board paper in Shandong remained flat, while the price of 250 - 400g white cardboard Dan顶鹤 in Jiangsu increased by 50 yuan/ton (or +1.35%) to 3,760 yuan/ton [56]. - **Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper**: The prices of box board paper in Shandong remained flat, and most prices of corrugated paper also remained flat, except for the 120g AAA - grade high - strength corrugated paper, which increased by 70 yuan/ton (or +2.47%) to 2,900 yuan/ton [58]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: - **Tissue Paper and White Cardboard**: In August 2025, the domestic tissue paper production was 1.2437 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons (or +0.54%), and the capacity utilization rate was 62.37%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96%. The production of white cardboard was 1.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (or +4.44%), and the capacity utilization rate was 82%, a month - on - month increase of 7.41% [60]. - **Offset Paper and Coated Paper**: In August 2025, the production of domestic offset paper was 917,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons (or +3.73%), and the capacity utilization rate was 60.47%, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The production of coated paper was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons (or -0.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.86%, a month - on - month increase of 6.26% [63]. - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In August 2025, the actual domestic pulp consumption was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,000 tons (or +2.44%), and a year - on - year increase of 99,000 tons (or +3.03%) [65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.066 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons (or -0.86%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port is 1.415 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,000 tons (or +1.8%). The inventory in Changshu Port is 482,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons (or -6.41%), and the inventory in Tianjin Port is 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons (or -7.69%) [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 236,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,853 tons (or -0.78%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 219,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,754 tons (or -0.8%) [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of soybean meal first rose and then fell. On the cost side, the USDA in August lowered the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit was raised, the output was still reduced. Meanwhile, the decrease in total demand was less than that in total supply, and the ending stocks were lowered, which was overall bullish for the market. The good rainfall in US soybean - growing areas supported a better pod - setting number this year. The net export sales of US soybeans were average, but China - US trade negotiations continued. With both bullish and bearish factors, US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. In the domestic market, the recent sufficient arrival of soybeans led to a high operating rate of oil mills, resulting in a loose supply of soybean meal. The weak downstream replenishment also put pressure on the spot price. Both the soybeans and soybean meal of oil mills were in the inventory - building cycle, and the short - term inventory increased. [6] - Currently, the spot market of soybean meal has a loose supply - demand situation, while the futures market is dominated by China - US tariff negotiations. A large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in the third and fourth quarters, ensuring sufficient supply of soybean meal. However, due to the possible impact of China - US tariffs, there is an expectation of a supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year. The expected reduction in US soybean output and strong crushing demand strengthen the expectation of rising import costs. As the new round of China - US negotiations did not mention the purchase of US soybeans, it is expected that soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short and medium term. In the long term, there is an expectation of an increase in the planting area of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean procurement in the second quarter of next year is sufficient, so there is still pressure on soybean meal. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of August 29th, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1053.00 cents per bushel, up 62.75 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 6.34%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 3055 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.63%. [12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - side: US Soybean Balance Sheet - The planting area of US soybeans was lowered by 2.5 million to 80.9 million acres. The yield per unit was raised by 1.1 to 53.6 bushels per acre. The output was reduced by 43 million to 4.292 billion bushels. The total supply was lowered by 63 million to 4.642 billion bushels. The export was lowered by 40 million to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending stocks were lowered by 20 million to 290 million bushels. [13][14] 3.2.2 Cost - side: US Soybean - growing Area Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low. [13] 3.2.3 Cost - side: US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 24th, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week of August 26th, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. [21] 3.2.4 Cost - side: US Soybean Export Sales - As of the week of August 21st, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were - 189,000 tons, and in the 2025/2026 season were 1.373 million tons. The cumulative sales this year were 50.8687 million tons, accounting for 99.67% of the August USDA estimated exports. [25] 3.2.5 Cost - side: Brazilian Soybean Export and Premium - ANEC estimated that the soybean export volume of Brazil in August would be about 8.88 million tons, an increase of about 900,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Most of Brazilian soybeans have been sold, reducing the sales pressure. However, due to the strong US soybean futures, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has fallen from a high level. [29] 3.2.6 Domestic: Imported Soybean Arrival - In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons compared with June and an increase of 1.813 million tons (18.4%) compared with July 2024. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans in China was 61.035 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons (4.63%) year - on - year. In the 34th week of 2025 (August 16th - August 22nd), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 2.1775 million tons. [34] 3.2.7 Domestic: Soybean Crushing Volume - In August 2025, the soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 11.46 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons (25.01%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.3048 million tons (12.84%) compared with the same period last year. [37] 3.2.8 Domestic: Downstream Demand for Soybean Meal - In August, the trading volume of oil mills was 4.8503 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 206,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 4.0054 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 313,500 tons. [39] 3.2.9 Domestic: Inventory of Soybeans and Soybean Meal in Oil Mills - In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major national oil mills increased to 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons (0.31%) from the previous week and a decrease of 394,000 tons (5.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (3.80%) from the previous week and a decrease of 445,300 tons (29.71%) year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts decreased. [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No detailed spread - tracking content analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread items such as the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, 01 oil - meal ratio, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, and 01 soybean - rapeseed meal spread are mentioned. [45][46][49][50]

Group 1: Core Views - Short - term macro factors will increase market disturbances, but long - term policy guidance is bullish. In September, overseas focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue, while domestic attention is on the 14th Five - Year Plan and Q4 economic policy guidance [4]. - The real estate market is in a weak state with both new and second - hand housing sales at low levels, but there is potential for improvement during the "Golden September and Silver October". The service industry is structurally differentiated and resilient at high levels, and the manufacturing industry is rebalancing after tariff policy disturbances [4]. - Domestic and overseas liquidity is tending to be loose. The domestic stock market has attracted leveraged funds and household deposits, but the pressure of share unlocks is increasing, and market divergence has emerged [4]. - After a sharp short - term rise, the valuation of each index has reached a relatively high historical level, and the stock - bond premium rate at home and abroad is low, so the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock index futures in September. Consider going long on IF and IH during sharp drops or a short - term arbitrage opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [4]. Group 2: Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, A - shares led the rise, and German stocks led the decline. The performance order is:科创50 index > ChiNext Index > Shanghai Composite Index > Nikkei 225 > Hang Seng Tech Index > NASDAQ > S&P 500 > FTSE Emerging Markets > FTSE Europe > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the communication industry led the rise, and the banking industry led the decline. The order is: communication > electronics > non - ferrous metals > computer > new energy… > transportation > steel > construction > coal > bank [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.07%, 0.34%, - 0.04%, and - 0.23% respectively. The discounts of IF and IH narrowed. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) changed by - 0.09%, 0.21%, 0.33%, and 0.29% respectively, and the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly converged. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.04%, 0.7%, 1.14%, and 1.36% respectively, and the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM converged significantly [21]. Group 3: Fund Flows Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds - In August, margin trading funds flowed in 259.09 billion yuan, and the margin balance accounted for 2.39% of the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, an increase of 0.06%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds increased by 321.65 billion yuan to 3.49364 trillion yuan, with a share redemption of 14.8 billion shares last month and a subscription of 215.2 billion shares in the latest week [24]. Industrial Capital - In July - August, equity financing was 20.78 billion yuan, with 3 companies. IPO financing was 2.56 billion yuan, private placement was 18.21 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.22 billion yuan. In August, the market value of share unlocks was 539.34 billion yuan, an increase of 250.95 billion yuan from the previous month [27]. Group 4: Liquidity Monetary Supply - In August, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 7.235 trillion yuan, and the reverse repurchase was 7.8518 trillion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 61.68 billion yuan. MLF had a net injection of 3 billion yuan, with a continuous net injection for six months and an increasing margin [29]. Monetary Demand - In August, the net monetary demand for national debt was 828.88 billion yuan, local debt was 804.34 billion yuan, and other bonds was 544.59 billion yuan. The total net monetary demand for the bond market was 2177.81 billion yuan [32]. Fund Price - In August, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 3.8bp, - 14.5bp, and - 6bp respectively. The inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate decreased by 0.8bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks rebounded by 4bp. The fund price rebounded slightly at a low level [35]. Term Structure - In August, the yield curve steepened significantly. The long - end yields of national debt and policy - bank bonds rebounded, and the long - end credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened [39]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In August, the US 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 11.0bp, the inflation expectation decreased by 2.0bp, and the real interest rate decreased by 9.0bp. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 20.04bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 1.22% [42]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of August 28, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities seasonally rebounded but was at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally. The real estate market is in a weak state, but rigid demand supports the lower limit [45]. Service Industry Activity - As of August 29, the subway passenger volume in 28 large cities remained high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.5% compared to last year and 51% compared to 2021. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded, and the service industry's economic activity is trending towards a natural and stable growth level [48]. Manufacturing Tracking - In August, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry declined under the anti - involution policy. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand increased by 0.58% [52]. Freight Flow - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The postal express and civil aviation sectors grew strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, and railway transportation rebounded significantly [57]. Import and Export - China's exports continued to grow strongly. After three rounds of Sino - US negotiations, a 90 - day exemption was extended, and Q3 exports were stronger than the season, which may continue [60]. Overseas Situation - In July, US PCE inflation continued to rebound, and the market's optimistic expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year has weakened. The market expects 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp [62][66]. Group 6: Other Analyses Valuation - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.64%, a significant decrease of 0.43% from the previous month. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.63%, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous month. The valuations of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at relatively high levels in the past 5 years [69][74]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to seasonal patterns, the stock market is likely to be in a state of seasonal shock and decline in September, with a growth style that first outperforms and then corrects. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting IC and IM and going long on IF and IH [77].