1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has confirmed the start of a second - round production increase, and the off - peak demand season has arrived as expected. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will boost the enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upside of the oil price. The medium - to - long - term strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, the interest rate cut, one of the bullish drivers, has been implemented. It is expected that WTI will mainly fluctuate between $60 - $65 after a correction, waiting for further drivers to break the range. Seize the rebound trading opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Crude Oil Price Trends**: From September 15 - 19, international oil prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and interest rate cut expectations. After the interest rate cut was implemented, the macro - premium began to be continuously adjusted. As of September 19, WTI and Brent settled at $63.62/barrel (+1.43%) and $67.6/barrel (+1.42%) respectively; INE SC settled at 493.22 yuan/barrel (+2.18%) [9]. - **Financial Aspects**: The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, in line with market expectations. As of September 19, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April and reached a new high; the VIX volatility was 15.45, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first introduced and still at a relatively low level [13]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 19, the crude oil volatility ETF was 30.53, and the dollar index was 97.6519. Although the Fed cut interest rates this week, Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. The market priced in only one interest rate cut in each of next year and the year after, causing the dollar index to fluctuate [17]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of September 16, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 26,800 contracts to 36,800 contracts week - on - week, a weekly increase of 267.9%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 9,900 contracts to 61,900 contracts, a weekly decline of 13.8%. The market bet on the intensification of geopolitical sanctions risks, and the interest rate cut expectations boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in net long positions before the interest rate cut was implemented [20]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Overall Production**: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the way. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 154,000 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their submitted compensation production - cut plans [26]. - **OPEC+ Production - Cut Situation**: According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 23.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still over - produced significantly, but the overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month. Seven countries updated their compensation production - cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [30]. - **Saudi and Iranian Crude Oil Production**: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 9.709 million barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 27,000 barrels per day to 3.218 million barrels per day, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [32]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in August was 9.173 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA statistics, it was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 barrels per day. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but remains at a relatively low level [42]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of September 19, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has significantly decreased, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [46]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of September 12, US crude oil production marginally rebounded to 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year dampened producers' enthusiasm, compressing the potential for US oil production increase in the second half of the year. However, relatively healthy oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter and high well production efficiency will prevent production from a sharp decline [49]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: US petroleum product demand has peaked and declined. The single - week demand for refined oil products has rebounded, but the four - week average demand has decreased. In absolute terms, the current demand level is at the upper end of historical levels, and the peak - season demand has peaked. As of the week of September 12, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 217,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.69% [53]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: From August 12 to September 12, US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day (-0.10%), consumption decreased by 217,000 barrels per day (-1.04%), refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day (-2.34%), and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% (-1.69%). Gasoline production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day (-1.88%), and the implied demand decreased by 8,000 barrels per day (-0.09%). Distillate production decreased by 274,000 barrels per day (-5.24%), and the implied demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day (-2.26%) [57]. - **US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption**: As of September 12, the four - week average demand for gasoline decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.919 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the average demand for distillates decreased by 86,000 barrels per day to 3.727 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.77%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.703 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [60]. - **US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: This week, the US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread fluctuated. As of September 19, the gasoline crack spread was $20.09 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.87 per barrel. The crude oil side was relatively strong due to geopolitical uncertainties, while gasoline demand showed signs of peaking, causing the crack spread to decline seasonally. The heating oil took over the demand baton, but the crack spread also declined due to unexpected inventory builds [61]. - **European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of September 19, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.93 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.87 per barrel. Supported by the seasonal recovery of distillate demand, the crack spreads had rebounded, but the unexpected inventory build of distillates this week raised market concerns, causing the crack spreads to decline slightly [65]. - **China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.391 million tons year - on - year to 63.46 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 392,000 tons year - on - year to 49.492 million tons (+0.8%). Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation this year, China's oil imports from the Gulf region have surged, and Russia's oil supply has also rebounded significantly compared with previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintained last month's forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected the global crude oil demand growth rate this year to be 900,000 barrels per day (↑), 740,000 barrels per day (↑), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively, and 1.28 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day next year [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories declined again to a very low level in the five - year range due to the rebound in exports. As of September 12, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.52%; SPR inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.73 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the week of September 12, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - Spreads**: As of September 19, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.28 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.16 per barrel. The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure but continued to weaken. The Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.64 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.49 per barrel. The Brent month - spread was stronger than the WTI this week due to European sanctions on Russian crude oil, which tightened the supply outlook in Europe [80][82]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, an increase from last month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production - increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, the pressure of supply surplus this year is expected to be greater [85]. - **Term Structure**: This week, the US fundamental data indicated that the peak - season demand had peaked, and the term structure continued to flatten. Due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent was expected to be tighter, supporting a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as the peak - season demand weakens, if OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increase in the near - term, the term structure may change [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 400 tons week - on - week to 20,400 tons, with a slight increase in output from each raw material end. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month - on - month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year, expected to arrive in China from late September to October. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 981 tons week - on - week to 137,500 tons, continuing the de - stocking trend. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory [6]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in September increased by about 5% month - on - month, and overseas energy storage demand was remarkable. Ningde's production schedule guidance for suppliers in 2026 was revised up to 1100GWh, a 46% increase year - on - year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will follow the movement of lithium salt prices. In July, China's spodumene imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.35% increase month - on - month [6]. - Strategy: Boosted by strong peak - season demand, lithium prices are trending upwards. The news of the possible复产 of the Jianxiakeng Mine has been fully priced in, and the expectation of supply contraction has cooled, but there are still news disturbances. The current lithium price is in a relatively balanced range, suppressed by high inventory and hedging demand on the upside and supported by peak - season demand on the downside. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate within the range of [70,000, 76,000]. Pay attention to the progress of issues at the mine end, and enterprises can consider purchasing on demand when prices are low [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **Lithium concentrate imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.496 million tons of spodumene. In July, imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.4% increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in imports from Australia [10]. - **Lithium concentrate prices**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will fluctuate with lithium salt prices [13]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: From January to August this year, China's cumulative lithium carbonate production was 550,000 tons, a 38.9% increase year - on - year. In August, domestic lithium carbonate production was 80,000 tons, a 7.3% increase month - on - month [17]. - **Lithium carbonate imports**: From January to July, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports were 131,600 tons, basically flat year - on - year. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 6.9% increase year - on - year and a 4.8% decrease month - on - month, expected to arrive in China from late September to October [21]. - **Spot prices**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase week - on - week. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a slight increase week - on - week [24]. - **Profitability of non - integrated plants**: After the lithium price correction, the profitability of non - integrated lithium salt plants deteriorated. Non - integrated spodumene manufacturers had a loss of about 664 yuan/ton, and non - integrated lepidolite manufacturers had a loss of 5,011 yuan/ton [28]. Demand Side - **Cathode material plants**: From January to July, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 1.746 million tons, a 46.4% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative production of ternary cathode was 399,000 tons, an 11.9% increase year - on - year. The industry capacity utilization rate was low. In July, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59.7%, and that of ternary materials was 49.4% [34]. - **Downstream production schedule**: It is expected that the downstream production schedule in September will increase by about 5% month - on - month, and energy storage demand is remarkable [37]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to July this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 10.657 million, a 25.0% increase year - on - year. China and the European market had strong growth, while the US growth slowed down [40]. - **Domestic new energy vehicle market**: From January to August, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 9.592 million, a 36.4% increase year - on - year. From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 438,000, a 6% increase year - on - year and a 10% increase month - on - month [43]. - **Power battery production**: In July, China's total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, a 3.6% increase month - on - month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 831.1GWh, a 57.5% increase year - on - year [47]. - **Consumer electronics**: In the second quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 69 million, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year. The production of electronic computer complete machines in the second quarter was 93.7 million, an 8.2% increase year - on - year [51]. - **Overseas energy storage demand**: From January to July 2025, the new installed capacity of new - type energy storage was 25.85GW/67.75GWh, a 48.8% increase in capacity year - on - year. Overseas, the energy storage growth rate was remarkable [56]. Other Indicators - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 460, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week at 2,250 yuan/ton [59]. - **Term structure**: This week, the lithium carbonate contract term structure was in a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - continuous and near - month contracts turned positive, with a spread of 200, an increase of 360 from last week [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices dropped significantly with reduced positions. After the Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations, the positive news was exhausted, and the lack of spot support led copper prices back to a volatile trend. There is still a probability of triggering a recession expectation due to the slowdown of the US economy and the rapid decline of employment indicators. On the industrial fundamental side, the return of the peak season is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether there will be pre - holiday inventory reduction through stocking. The spot premium has fallen from a high level, and social inventory has increased. Although the smelting processing fee is low, the production remains stable. Globally, copper inventory is still not low. The total position of copper has dropped below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan, and spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - **PMI**: In August 2025, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.05% (up 0.7 percentage points month - on - month), while the US manufacturing level declined. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month), hitting a 9 - month low and staying below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4% (up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months [12]. - **Interest - rate cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP after highlighting economic slowdown risks and pressured employment data. The market had fully priced in the cut in advance, and the interest - rate cut path remained cautious, with a weakened impact on inflation expectations. The US economic data continued to slow down, and employment indicators dropped rapidly, increasing the risk of a recession [5][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper concentrate supply**: In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons (up 2.54% year - on - year), with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons (up 3.32% year - on - year), with a surplus of 25.1 million tons. China's copper concentrate imports also showed an increasing trend. In 2025 August, imports were 275.9 million tons (up 7.2% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month), with cumulative imports from January to August at 2005.4 million tons (up 7.9% year - on - year) [22][29]. - **TC**: On September 19, 2025, the SMM import copper concentrate index was - 40.8 dollars/dry ton (up 0.5 dollars/dry ton from the previous period). The 2025 long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [33]. - **Refined copper production**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 0.24%) but increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a growth of 12.30%). It is expected that in September, production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 4.48%) but increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.42%) [40]. - **Refined copper import and export**: In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (up 6.49% year - on - year) and exported 45.75 million tons (up 63.86% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 29.69 million tons (down 1.20% month - on - month but up 7.56% year - on - year), and exports soared to 11.84 million tons (up 49.86% month - on - month and 69.13% year - on - year) [46]. - **Scrap copper supply**: In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (up 13.26% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 19.01 million tons (up 3.73% month - on - month but down 2.36% year - on - year), and from January to July, cumulative imports were 133.55 million tons (down 0.77% year - on - year) [50]. - **Consumption end**: - **Power and grid investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 11687.22 billion yuan (up 12.14% year - on - year), and grid investment was 6082.58 billion yuan (up 15.26% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to July, power investment was 4288 billion yuan (up 3.4% year - on - year), and grid investment was 3315 billion yuan (up 12.5% year - on - year) [54]. - **Air - conditioner production**: In 2024 from January to December, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 26598.44 million units (up 9.7% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to August, it was 19964.62 million units (up 5.8% year - on - year), with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [57]. - **Automobile production**: In 2025 from January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively (up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year). New energy vehicle production and sales were 962.5 million and 962 million vehicles respectively (up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year), with a new - car penetration rate of 45.5% [62]. - **Real estate**: In 2024 from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 7.37 billion square meters (down 27.7% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In August 2025, the completion area was 2.77 billion square meters (down 17% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year [64]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 57 million tons (up 1.17 million tons week - on - week). The LME copper inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 14.77 million tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.17 million tons to 10.58 million tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 6290 tons to 31.68 million tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 7.68 million tons (up 0.41 million tons from the previous week) [69]. - **CFTC non - commercial net position**: As of September 16, 2025, the CFTC non - commercial long - net position was 30348 lots (up 3107 lots week - on - week), with non - commercial long positions at 69370 lots (up 5077 lots week - on - week) and non - commercial short positions at 39022 lots (up 1970 lots week - on - week) [71]. - **Premium and discount**: As of September 19, 2025, the LME copper spot discount was - 64.9 dollars/ton. The Shanghai area's premium stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that next week, if the copper price remains around 80000 yuan/ton, the downstream's pre - holiday stocking sentiment may be better than expected; otherwise, it may decline [80]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - contract was 200 yuan/ton [82]. Market Outlook - The copper price dropped significantly with reduced positions, and the total position fell below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan. Spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86].

Report Title - Glass: Low-level Volatility Continues, Focus on Peak-season Demand; Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains, Adopt Rebound Shorting Strategy [1] Report Core Views - For soda ash, the production remains at a high level, downstream low-price replenishment occurs but overall consumption fluctuates little, and the absolute inventory is high with limited fundamental drivers. In the short term, affected by market sentiment changes, the soda ash futures price rebounds and then falls. Overall, with a supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds. For glass, there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [4][38]. Summary by Industry Soda Ash Price - This week, the spot price remained stable, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas had North China heavy soda ash at 1325 (unchanged) and East China heavy soda ash at 1250 (unchanged). Last week, the prices of heavy and light soda ash slightly decreased, with the national heavy soda ash market price at 1285 and the light soda ash market price at 1245, and the heavy-light soda ash price difference at +40 (unchanged). The futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract was 1318 (+28), the 1-5 spread was -89 (-11), and the basis of the main 01 contract was -32 (-23) (using the national heavy soda ash average price) [5][10]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash production was 74.57 tons (-1.54, -2.02%), including 32.80 tons of light soda ash (-1.14) and 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash (-0.40). The operating rate was 85.53% (-1.76%), with the ammonia-soda method at 88.87% (-1.97%) and the combined soda method at 75.53% (-1.87%) [4][14]. Demand - Last week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 78.76 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.24%; the overall production-sales ratio was 105.62%, a week-on-week increase of +2.39%. Last week, the soda ash demand remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid demand. Next week, the float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. In August, the soda ash imports were 0.03 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -0.29 tons; exports were 21.54 tons, a month-on-month increase of +5.41 tons, resulting in an increase in net exports [4][23]. Inventory - Last week, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons (-4.19, -2.33%), including 74.95 tons of light soda ash (-1.35) and 100.61 tons of heavy soda ash (-2.48). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories decreased [4][30]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined soda method (double tons) was -70.5 yuan/ton (-16); the profit of the ammonia-soda method was -36.75 yuan/ton (-0.45), showing overall stability [4][35]. Strategy - Given the high soda ash production, low-price downstream replenishment with little overall consumption fluctuation, and high absolute inventory, the fundamental drivers are limited. Considering the supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Glass Price - Last week, the glass spot price remained stable with a slight increase. The ex-factory price of Wuhan Changli 5mm glass was 1160 (+40), and the ex-factory price of Shahe Anquan 5mm glass was 1088 (+12). The price difference between Changli and Shahe was +72 (+28). The futures price also rose. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 1216 (+36), the 1-5 spread was -127 (-23), and using the Wuhan Changli ex-factory price as the spot benchmark, the basis of the main 01 contract was -56 (+4) [39][44]. Supply - Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 16.02 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The float glass production was 112.12 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The operating rate of float glass was 76.01%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. Last week, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold-repaired and shut down [38][50]. Demand - As of early September, the order days of deep-processing enterprises were 10.4 days, an increase of +0.75 compared to the previous period. The downstream demand recovery was slow. The real estate end-recovery situation was still weak, with the cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion end from January to August at -17%, and the front-end new construction willingness still low, with the cumulative year-on-year decline from January to July at -19.5%. According to CAAM data, in August, the automobile production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of +8.65% and +10.18% and year-on-year increases of +12.96% and +16.14%, respectively, which were at relatively high levels in recent years [38][59]. Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million weight cases, a week-on-week decrease of -1.10%. Different regions had different inventory changes, with North China increasing by 3.34%, East China decreasing by -1.35%, Central China decreasing by -5.41%, South China decreasing by -1.44%, Southwest increasing by 0.45%, Northeast decreasing by -2.27%, and Northwest decreasing by -6.25% [38][65]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of coal-gas-fired float glass was +94.03 yuan/ton (-6.37); the profit of natural-gas-fired float glass was -164.84 yuan/ton (+9.29); the profit of petroleum-coke-fired float glass was 41.37 yuan/ton (+11.43). The industry profit remained stable in the short term [38][79]. Strategy - There is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [38].

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-09-22): Peak Season Features Emerge, Steel Prices Fluctuate and Rise [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - **Price**: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, while the futures market fluctuates upward [4]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production rises slightly, while electric furnace production continues to decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Building material inventory starts to decline, and plate inventory decreases slightly [4]. - **Demand**: The recovery of building material demand is slow, while the apparent demand for plates accumulates slightly [4]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits are slightly repaired, and electric furnace losses narrow [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 rebar contract expands significantly and is expected to continue expanding [4]. - **Summary**: The supply - demand structure of steel begins to improve, with peak - season features becoming more obvious. The futures market has high expectations for policies. Pay attention to the recovery speed and sustainability of demand. For strategies, stay on the sidelines for single - sided steel trading and consider shorting the rebar - ore ratio [4]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Ore prices rise slightly, and the futures market fluctuates upward [4]. - **Supply**: Shipments from Australia and Brazil increase, while arrivals decline month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: Blast furnace production increases, and demand recovers month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreases slightly, while downstream total inventory accumulates [4]. - **Shipping**: Shipping costs both rise [4]. - **Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread remains basically flat, and the 01 discount narrows slightly [4]. - **Summary**: Last week, the supply of iron ore tightened month - on - month, and demand continued to recover. The supply - demand structure continued to improve. In the short term, the market may still trade on the pre - National Day stockpiling, and ore prices may maintain a current volatile and upward trend. Aggressive investors can continue to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on pullbacks [4]. Market Conditions and Strategies Capital Sentiment and Technical Analysis - For rebar, positions continue to increase, trading volume expands, and the futures market shows a volatile and rising trend, forming a rounded bottom structure. However, it may face resistance around 3200. For iron ore, capital continues to flow in, the price breaks through effectively, and is expected to continue rising [5]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold long positions in iron ore on a single - sided basis. - Continue to consider shorting rebar and going long on iron ore for arbitrage. - For industrial clients in the spot - futures market, hold spot goods and establish a small number of short positions on the futures market when the price rebounds to form a positive arbitrage position. During the peak season, actively sell goods and try to reduce inventory levels [7]. Steel Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar prices fluctuated upward, with the 01 contract rising 45 to 3172. Spot prices also increased, with rebar in East China reported at 3260 yuan/ton, up 40 week - on - week [13]. Supply - **Blast Furnace**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in China is 83.98%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons week - on - week and 17.19 tons year - on - year [16]. - **Electric Furnace**: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China is 54.35%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week and up 14.68 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate is 70.63%, down 1.29 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.59 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - **Building Materials and Plates**: Rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons last week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons. It is expected that rebar production will not decline significantly in the future, and hot - rolled coil production may slightly decline [27]. Demand - **Building Materials**: From September 4th to 10th, the clinker kiln line capacity utilization rate of 274 cement plants was 55.69%, up 14.96 percentage points week - on - week and 8.20 percentage points year - on - year. Infrastructure demand is continuously released, housing construction projects are accelerating the resumption of work, and the demand for rebar is gradually increasing. Speculative demand is also expected to recover [30]. - **Plates**: The downstream industries of hot - rolled coils have gradually started procurement plans. The current orders on hand of steel mills can still last for about 15 days, and rigid demand still supports hot - rolled coil consumption [34]. Profit - The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, down 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and up 48.91 percentage points year - on - year. The profits of steel mills in Tangshan and East China have both recovered by about 30. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace building material steel mills is - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit is - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. Inventory - **Building Materials**: The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 1519.74 tons, up 5.13 tons week - on - week. Building material inventory decreased by 2.78 tons, with rebar mill inventory decreasing by 1.56 tons and social inventory decreasing by 2.02 tons [43]. - **Plates**: Plate inventory increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, with mill inventory increasing by 0.42 tons and social inventory increasing by 4.25 tons [46]. Basis - The basis of the rebar 01 contract rose 25 to 108, and the basis of the hot - rolled coil rose 20 to 66. Currently, the bases of both are at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity of the rebar basis expanding [50]. Inter - period Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is - 60, with the contango deepening by 2 compared to last week. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 10, down 6. In the short term, the far - month expectation of rebar is still strong, and the contango is difficult to reverse [54]. Inter - commodity Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market narrowed by 35 to 202, and the spot spread decreased by 40 to 160. It is recommended to do long - short trading on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and go long when it is below 200 [57]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, the iron ore futures market fluctuated narrowly, with prices rising slightly. The 01 contract rose 8 to 807.5. The spot price was flat, with PB fines at Rizhao Port down 1 to 792 yuan/ton [63]. Supply - **Global Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume is 3573.1 tons, up 817 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in September is 3164.65 tons, down 113 tons month - on - month and 98 tons year - on - year [66]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume of 47 ports is 2392.3 tons, down 181 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in September is 2482.6 tons, down 118 tons month - on - month and 36 tons year - on - year [72]. Demand - **Rigid Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.02 tons/day, up 0.47 tons/day week - on - week [75]. - **Speculative Demand**: The daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports is 109 tons/day, up 5.5 tons week - on - week [79]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of September 19th, the inventory of 47 ports decreased by 74 tons, lower than the same period last year [82]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills is 9309.43 tons, up 316.38 tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore is 297.45 tons, up 0.80 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.3 days, up 0.98 days week - on - week [85]. Shipping - The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao is 10.94 US dollars/ton, up 0.63 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to Qingdao is 24.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.67 US dollars week - on - week [88]. Spread - The 01 contract basis is 17, narrowing by 2 week - on - week. The 1 - 5 spread is 21.5, narrowing by 0.5 week - on - week [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and the pulp price has rebounded slightly. The pulp futures price of contract 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 5180 this week [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp remained stable, while the prices of broad - leaf pulp increased slightly. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained unchanged compared to the previous week [11][14] - **Pulp Futures**: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight up - and - down oscillation and rebounded last week, closing at 5018 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (or + 0.56%) [15] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 632 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing by 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [19] - **Log Futures**: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a slight oscillatory rebound last week, closing at 805.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (or + 0.88%) [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 51.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons (or + 7.69%). The production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased, and it is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 23.2 tons and that of chemimechanical pulp will be about 22.0 tons this week [22] - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rates of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp both increased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will not change much next week [25] - **Monthly Production**: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly, with wood pulp production rising and non - wood pulp production remaining flat [27] - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the capacity utilization rates of chemimechanical pulp and broad - leaf pulp both decreased [32] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp increased month - on - month, and the loss of chemimechanical pulp decreased [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume increased year - on - year [37] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of household paper decreased slightly, while those of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased. It is expected that the production of household paper will be about 27.9 tons, offset paper about 20.6 tons, coated paper about 8.5 tons, and white cardboard about 36.0 tons this week [39][43][46][47] - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: The gross profit of household paper decreased, while that of white cardboard increased slightly. The loss of offset paper decreased slightly, and the gross profit of coated paper increased [49][53] - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In August 2025, the actual pulp consumption increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price**: The prices of household paper and cultural paper remained stable, the price of whiteboard paper increased slightly, and the price of white cardboard remained basically stable [57][60] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port has all increased [61][63] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous week, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.27% [65]

下游节前备货启动，双焦预计偏强运行 煤焦周度报告 20250922 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 1.1 价格：上周盘面大幅拉涨，节前预计维持偏强运行 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1月2日 1月11 日 1月20 日 1月29 日 2月7日 2月16 日 2月25 日 3月5日 3月14 日 3月23 日 4月1日 4月11 日 4月20 日 4月29 日 5月11 日 5月20 日 5月29 日 6月7日 6月16 日 6月25 日 7月4日 7月13 日 7月22 日 7月31 日 8月9日 8月18 日 8月27 日 9月5日 9月14 日 9月23 日 10 月9日 10 月18 日 10 月27 日 11 月5日 11 月14 日 11 月23 日 12 月2日 12 月11 日 12 月20 日 12 月29 日 焦炭主力合约季节性 2025年 2024年 2023年 2022年 2021年 数据来源：东方财富行情软件，Wind，正信期货 | 报告主要观点 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks fundamental support and is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply - demand balance sheet may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but low processing fees, increased maintenance plans, and cost - side support will keep it in this pattern [1][6]. - MEG is in a weak state and is expected to run weakly in the short term. Although there is a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low inventory at the main port provides obvious support below [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: Due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, international crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the postponement of the commissioning time of new downstream PTA plants led to a significant decline in PX prices at the end of the session. As of September 19, the closing price of Asian PX was $815.67 per ton CFR China, down $15.66 per ton from September 12 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The restart of two 160 - million - ton PX units of Fujian Fuhai Chuang and the maintenance of a 70 - million - ton unit of Dalian Fujia led to a narrow increase in the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX to 85.51%, a 0.88% increase from the previous week [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 19, the PX - naphtha price spread was $218.9 per ton, down $13.91 per ton from September 12. Due to the lack of improvement in terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, the PX - naphtha price spread continued to decline [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, PTA device operation was stable, but the restart of Fuhai Chuang was postponed. Terminal orders were average during the traditional peak season, and demand was tepid. With low processing fees, some enterprises added maintenance plans, and PTA mainly oscillated at a low level. As of September 19, the spot price of PTA was 4,555 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [24]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased to 77.29%, a 2.34% increase from the previous week. In September, with the planned restart of some units, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [28][31]. - **Processing Fees**: With the upcoming restart of large - scale East China plants, increased domestic supply, and tepid terminal performance during the traditional peak season, PTA processing fees have been weakening. In the short term, although there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low valuation limits the further downward space, and processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In September, with the restart of maintenance units and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Despite the decline in the main port inventory, the market was generally worried about supply - side pressure. Although there were small rebounds during the week, the confidence to chase the rise was insufficient, and the MEG market remained weak at the weekend. As of September 19, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,352 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,470 yuan per ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of MEG was 67.04%, a 0.48% increase from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 0.19%, and that of coal - based MEG increased by 1.56%. In September, with the restart of some domestic units and the end of the maintenance season, the overall MEG output is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the total expected arrival volume of MEG in East China was 88,100 tons. As of September 18, the total MEG inventory in the main East China ports was 383,700 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from September 15 and an increase of 20,500 tons from September 11 [47][49]. - **Profit**: Due to the expected increase in supply and the rise in raw material prices, the profits of all MEG production processes declined this week. As of September 19, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $115.99 per ton, down $13.59 per ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based MEG was - 141.07 yuan per ton, down 87.68 yuan per ton from the previous week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Production**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.89%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. With the restart of some previously maintained units and the planned commissioning of new units next week, domestic polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, polyester production and sales were relatively good, and new plants were commissioned, resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the polyester operating rate. In September, with the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and maintained units, and the expected commissioning of multiple new plants, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [59]. - **Capacity Utilization of Sub - Products**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.54%, a 0.11% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.01%, a 0.19% increase from the previous week; and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 83.31%, a 1.32% increase from the previous week [62]. - **Inventory**: Due to cautious downstream procurement and weak production and sales, factory finished - product inventories increased slightly this week [63]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decrease in polymerization costs, polyester manufacturers focused on sales, and the average weekly price decreased, compressing cash flow. However, the cash flow of DTY was repaired [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 18, the operating load of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.19%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days, a decrease of 0.13 days from the previous week. The current orders are mainly for autumn and winter cold - proof fabrics, and the industry demand has not improved substantially [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: International crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, due to weak terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, PX prices declined significantly at the end of the session [73]. - **Supply Side**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased, and the total capacity utilization rate of MEG also increased slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based units [73]. - **Demand Side**: The overall supply of polyester fluctuated slightly this week, and the operating load and order days of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [73]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply is expected to increase, and the near - term supply - demand remains tight, while the long - term inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The MEG inventory at the main East China ports decreased compared with September 15 but increased compared with September 11 [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, US inflation data showed that PPI turned negative month - on - month and CPI was slightly higher than expected. The inflation pressure on the production side eased, and consumer - side price increases were mainly driven by cars, clothing, and housing costs. The labor market significantly cooled, and the market increased bets on Fed rate cuts, expecting three cuts this year. Precious metals continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $3,700 per ounce and COMEX silver futures breaking through $43 per ounce [3]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold inventory declined while COMEX silver inventory increased. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs slowed down, and hedge funds increased their long positions in gold and silver [3]. - Geopolitical factors such as the Trump tariff case and Fed personnel changes continued to disrupt the market. If Trump's tariffs are ruled illegal, the US will face huge tax refunds, increasing fiscal pressure. The search for a new Fed chair is ongoing, and future Fed leadership will face major adjustments. Inflation may gradually show the impact of tariffs, and there is uncertainty in the second - half rate - cut path. With the continued Russia - Ukraine conflict, central banks and investors are increasing their holdings of precious metals, providing bottom support for precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward. The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, oscillatory in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. Shanghai silver is oscillatory in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 1.57% to $3,651.10 per ounce, COMEX gold futures rose 1.12% to $3,680.70 per ounce, the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 3.72% to 834.22 yuan per gram, and gold A (T + D) (spot) rose 2.30% to 830.34 yuan per gram. The spot price of silver in the London market increased by 3.72% to $42.26 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 2.82% to $42.68 per ounce, the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 2.27% to 10,035 yuan per kilogram, and silver A (T + D) (spot) rose 2.51% to 10,034 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.11% to 3,891.45 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.75% to 52,742.32 million ounces. COMEX gold total positions increased by 3.39% to 150,000 lots, and COMEX gold speculative net long positions increased by 4.89% to 261,700 lots. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.05% to 156,700 lots, and COMEX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 3.55% to 53,900 lots [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Last week, the domestic gold - silver ratio fell to around 83, and the overseas gold - silver ratio fell to around 86, still higher than their long - term historical averages. Supported by Fed rate - cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, silver continued to rise with gold and has room for catch - up growth due to its industrial attributes and the repair of the gold - silver ratio [7]. - **Domestic - Overseas Price Difference**: The domestic - overseas price difference of gold increased compared to the previous week, while that of silver slightly decreased. Gold and silver continued to rise and broke historical highs last week [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - **Dollar Index**: Last week, US inflation and employment data showed moderate inflation and high employment downside risks, boosting Fed rate - cut expectations. Coupled with the continuous disruption of the Trump tariff case and Fed personnel changes, the dollar index was under pressure, providing bottom support for precious metal prices [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: Last week, the real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds continued to decline, mainly due to moderate inflation and a weakening labor market, further strengthening Fed rate - cut expectations and expecting three rate cuts this year [16]. - **US Key Economic Data** - **CPI**: In August, US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year. Core commodity price increases accelerated, and service - sector price increases were mainly driven by housing costs, indicating moderate inflation [21]. - **PPI**: In August, US PPI was 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and - 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, indicating that inflation pressure on the production side is easing [21]. - **Core PCE**: In July, the US core PCE increased by 2.88% year - on - year, and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with market expectations. The PCE increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, also meeting expectations [25]. - **PMI**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, below expectations, and the service PMI was 52, showing that the manufacturing sector was in contraction while the service sector expanded [28]. - **Retail Sales**: In July, US retail sales increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and core retail sales increased by 0.27% month - on - month, indicating improved consumer activity [28]. - **Employment Data**: In August, US ADP employment increased by only 54,000, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached a nearly four - year high, indicating a significant cooling of the labor market [31]. - **Fed Rate Cuts**: Last week's US inflation data was moderate, and the labor market was weak, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and expecting three rate cuts this year. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Trump tariff case and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to disrupt the market, and the path of rate cuts in the second half of the year remains uncertain [32]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of September 9, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 32,300 lots to 261,700 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 9,700 lots to 53,900 lots [35]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.17 tons to 974.80 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 124.25 tons to 15,069.60 tons, indicating a slowdown in the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [36]. 4. Other Elements - **Inventory**: Last week, COMEX gold inventory was 3,891.45 million ounces, a 0.11% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 52,742.32 million ounces, a 1.75% increase [42]. - **Demand** - **Gold**: In September 2025, global gold reserves increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.87 tons to 2,300.40 tons. In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year, and in August, gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.5 billion [45]. - **Silver**: The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Industrial demand for silver remains strong, and silver has room for catch - up growth [45]. - **This Week's Key Events**: This week, focus on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, expecting a rate cut. Also, pay attention to the release of US August retail sales data to see if consumer demand maintains its resilience [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has confirmed the second - round of production increase, and the EIA weekly data shows a signal of peaking demand. The pressure of crude oil surplus will further increase in the fourth quarter. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, any rise in oil prices will boost OPEC+'s enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upside of oil prices. The medium - to - long - term strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, investors should seize the rebound and building - position opportunities brought about by the volatile geopolitical situation and interest - rate cut expectations [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. International Crude Oil Analysis - **Crude Oil Price Trends**: From September 8 - 12, international oil prices fluctuated widely. Although OPEC+ announced continued production increase, the deadlock in the tri - party negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine and the threat of new sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US almost offset the short - term bearish sentiment caused by the supply surplus. As of September 12, the settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $62.72/barrel (-1.87%) and $66.65/barrel (-1.22%) respectively; the settlement price of INE SC was 482.72 yuan/barrel (-0.72%) [8]. - **Financial Aspects**: The US CPI in August exceeded expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level in nearly four years. The market still anticipates consecutive interest - rate cuts this year. As of September 12, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April and reached a new high; the VIX volatility dropped significantly compared to when the tariff policy was first implemented and remained at a low level [11]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index**: The volatility of crude oil ETF declined this week, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of September 12, the crude oil volatility ETF was 31.77, and the US dollar index was 97.6178. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts continued to rise due to weak employment data and higher - than - expected CPI data, causing the US dollar index to continue to decline [13]. - **Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds**: As of September 9, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 17,300 contracts week - on - week to 10,000 contracts, a weekly decline of 63.4%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 3,300 contracts to 71,800 contracts, a weekly decline of 4.3%. OPEC+ announced continued production increase, high - frequency data indicated the arrival of the off - season, and the unexpected inventory build - up of crude oil further weakened the bullish support, leading to insufficient confidence in going long [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Overall Production**: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 154,000 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their submitted compensatory production - cut plans [21]. - **OPEC+ Production - Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical criteria, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 23.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, but the overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared to the previous month. Seven countries updated their compensatory production - cut plans, and the concentrated production - cut will be extended to the first half of next year [25]. - **Crude Oil Production of Saudi Arabia and Iran**: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 9.709 million barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 27,000 barrels per day to 3.218 million barrels per day. Sanctions and the Israel - Iran war have affected Iran's oil production [27]. - **Crude Oil Supply in Russia**: According to OPEC's statistical criteria, Russia's crude oil production in August was 9.173 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA's statistical criteria, it was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 barrels per day. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but remains at a relatively low level [37]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of September 12, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 416, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 72 year - on - year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian Basin has decreased significantly, which may limit the upside potential of crude oil production [41]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of September 5, US crude oil production rebounded marginally to 13.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 72,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. Although low oil prices in the first half of the year dampened producers' enthusiasm and limited the upside potential of US oil production in the second half of the year, relatively healthy oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter and high well - production efficiency will prevent a sharp decline in production [44]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **Total US Petroleum Product Demand**: There are signs of a decline in US petroleum product demand. Both the single - week and four - week average demand for refined products have decreased. As of the week of September 5, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 394,000 barrels per day but a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [48]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: In the week of September 5, US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day; consumption decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 20.888 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 16.818 million barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% to 94.9%; net imports increased by 668,000 barrels per day to 3.526 million barrels per day [52]. - **US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption**: The demand for refined products has seasonally declined. As of September 5, the four - week average demand for gasoline decreased by 123,000 barrels per day to 8.927 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.58%; the average demand for distillates decreased by 81,000 barrels per day to 3.813 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 2.01%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 1.772 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 4.91% [54]. - **US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: This week, the US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread fluctuated. As of September 12, the gasoline crack spread was $20.7/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.49/barrel. The crude oil side is relatively strong due to geopolitical uncertainties, while the gasoline demand has peaked, causing the crack spread to decline seasonally. The heating oil demand is in a seasonal upward trend [57]. - **European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of September 12, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.28/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.19/barrel. After weeks of diesel inventory build - up, the support for refined products weakened, causing the crack spreads to decline. Recently, the distillate demand has entered a seasonal upward channel, and the crack spreads have recovered [61]. - **Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: China's crude oil demand is in the peak season. In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.391 million tons year - on - year to 63.46 million tons (+7.43%); in July, imports increased by 392,000 tons year - on - year to 49.492 million tons (+0.8%). Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, China's imports of oil from the Gulf region have surged, and Russia's oil supply has also rebounded significantly [65]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth. In August, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 900,000 barrels per day (↑), 740,000 barrels per day (↑), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively, and 1.28 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day next year [69]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have rebounded to within the five - year range. As of September 5, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels from the previous week to 424.65 million barrels, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%; SPR inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.22 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels to 23.857 million barrels [70]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the week of September 5, US crude oil net imports increased by 668,000 barrels per day to 3.526 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 16.818 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% to 94.9% [74]. - **WTI Monthly Spread**: The WTI monthly spread remains in a backwardation structure. As of September 12, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.27/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.7/barrel. The monthly spread indicator continues to weaken. With the peak of US refined product demand and OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may continue to decline [77]. - **Brent Monthly Spread**: The Brent monthly spread also remains in a backwardation structure. As of September 12, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.45/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.15/barrel. The Brent monthly spread is stronger than the WTI monthly spread due to the expected tight supply in Europe caused by sanctions on Russian crude oil [80]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In August, the EIA predicted that the global oil supply would be 105.36 million barrels per day this year, and the demand would be 103.72 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared to the previous month. Although the EIA has raised the demand forecast, the early end of OPEC+'s voluntary production - cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day will lead to greater supply pressure this year [84]. - **Term Structure**: This week, the US fundamental data shows that the peak - season demand has peaked, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent can support a stronger contango structure due to the strong diesel demand and good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain the contango term structure, but as the peak - season demand weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [87].