Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to hit the market, and peanut prices are oscillating weakly. The overall peanut prices this week showed a weak adjustment. With the drought in Henan's production area alleviating, traders are accelerating inventory clearance, and there is a strong willingness to clear out lower - quality supplies. The demand side remains weak, with sluggish transactions in the domestic market and strong wait - and - see sentiment among demanders. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue. In the short term, the spot price is likely to remain oscillating weakly, and the long - term market mainly depends on the impact of weather on the growth of new - season peanuts and whether there is a significant improvement in market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating in the range of 7800 - 8400 for nearly a year. Given the continuous growth of peanut planting area in the past two years and no obvious change in the demand side, the short - term price trend is more likely to oscillate weakly within the range. Trend traders can construct an insurance strategy by combining long futures contracts and buying out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 levels lower. Band traders can buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the upper end, but should pay attention to position management [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints - New peanuts are about to be launched, and the short - term spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. The long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Suggestions for different types of traders are provided [7]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Peanut and Oilseed Sector - The peanut weighted index maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with the buying and selling sides in a relatively balanced state, waiting for the price to break through the small - range. The oilseed sector has encountered some pressure at the upper end of the range, and the key is to see if there is follow - up selling [9][10]. 2.2 Peanut 2510 Contract - Last week, the price of the 2510 contract rose to near the upper end of the range, and then the buying power weakened. This week, the price回调 to near the lower end of the range, showing a short - term weak oscillation pattern [14]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate - The weekly inventory of peanut oil is 39,160 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills is 4.29%, a decrease of about 0.34% compared to last week [17]. 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha) - The drought in Henan has eased, and the upcoming launch of new peanuts has accelerated the clearance of lower - quality supplies. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue [20]. 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend - The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main production areas this week is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week [24]. 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend - The prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have fallen back after hitting resistance at the upper end of the range, while the peanut meal price maintains an oscillating pattern [28]. 3.5 Imported Peanuts - The new - crop Sudanese imported refined peanuts are priced at about 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and the old - crop at about 8500 yuan/ton, with a slightly weakening price and low inventory and few transactions. Senegalese oil peanuts are priced at about 7800 yuan/ton, and refined peanuts at about 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton, with weak prices and few transactions. African supplies will have few subsequent arrivals. Brazilian high - oleic peanuts of 34/38 specification are priced at 12,000 yuan/ton, and 38/42 specification at 11,500 yuan/ton, with average sales [32]. 3.6 Market Price Index Compared to Last Month - The prices in some domestic markets are slightly weak, with low arrival volumes. Traders mainly consume their previous inventories, and the terminal market sales are slow [35]. 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis Spread - Not elaborated further in the provided content, only the basis chart and data source are given [37][38]

正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格大幅上涨， 淘鸡日龄小幅增加，大小码价差大幅走高，鸡苗价格持 | | | | 续下降。 近年来，养殖设备的升级会减少高温导致蛋率下降比例，但仍呈现季节性特征。高温天气的持续， | | | 供应 | 产蛋率有望进一步下滑，同时随着时令蔬菜逐渐减量，鸡蛋的替代效应将凸显。但今年以来，淘 | 偏空 | | | 鸡价格与鸡蛋比价居高不下，且一直处于近年同期最高，表明淘鸡力度不足，或将限制季节性反 | | | | 弹幅度。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅增加，主产区发货量小幅增加，流通库存和生产环节库存持续处于低位。 随着中秋节备货启动，蛋商采购意愿有所回升，各环节库存持续大幅下降，需求边际明显改善。 | | | 需求 | 近期现货经过快速拉涨后出现企稳，但并未下跌，说明终端抵触情绪并不太浓，高价蛋进入市场 | 偏多 | | | 初期会有过渡期，在过渡期价格会有所反复。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走高，处于近4年同期最低水平。 | 中性 | | | 本周 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-7-28) [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bullish [3] - Demand: Bearish [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Sideways [3] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing issues such as over - capacity and suggesting measures like culling sows and controlling fat pig weights [3]. - In the short term, the average weight of commercial pig sales by sample breeding enterprises increased slightly, the price difference between standard and fat pigs continued to decline, and the proportion of large pig sales increased significantly [3]. - Slaughter starts increased slightly this week, with narrow - fluctuating slaughter profits and a slight increase in frozen product inventory, which is at a low level in the same period of the past 4 years. High temperatures have suppressed pork consumption, and concentrated procurement has decreased due to construction site closures [3]. - Self - breeding and self - raising profits are near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level of the same period in the past 4 years. The basis of live pigs has decreased rapidly, and the near - month contracts are at par [3]. - The price difference between near - and far - term live pig futures contracts is oscillating downward, at a normal level in the same period of history. The net short position of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract is oscillating [3]. - With policy support and corporate actions, it is expected that the market path in the second half of the year may be similar to that in 2023, with pig prices rising moderately and weights decreasing significantly. The operation strategy is to dynamically construct a bullish call spread for the September live pig futures contract [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Analyzes aspects including live pig spot prices, basis, price differences between contracts, and institutional net positions [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers sows in stock, piglet supply, pig sales, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs [16][19][21][23] Demand Analysis - Includes pig slaughter, frozen product inventory, and substitutes [25][28][32] Profit Analysis - Focuses on breeding profits and the pig - grain ratio [35][37]

反内卷持续发酵，黑色高位运行 钢矿周度报告 2025-07-28 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货大幅上涨，盘面低位反弹 | | | 供给 | 高炉产量小幅回落，电炉产量继续增加 | | | 库存 | 建材社库增速放缓，板材库存小幅累积 | | | 需求 | 建材投机需求回升明显，板材需求下滑 | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润高位运行，电炉谷电扭亏 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅收窄，反套全部止盈 | | | 总结 | 反内卷范围进一步扩大，市场情绪继续发酵；产业变化：上周高炉开工基本持平，电炉开工继续回升，但铁水产量微降，总体供应边际下滑，建材短流程 开工增加，螺纹供应止跌回升，板类产量下降；需求方面，随着高温天气延续，终端需求回落明显，建材直接需求下降，投机需求受涨价带动继续走高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the US made progress in tariff trade, reaching tariff agreements with countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. China and the US will hold the third round of economic and trade consultations, and market risk sentiment has declined, weakening the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, tariff trade policies still carry risks, leading to an oscillatory adjustment in precious metal prices. US President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates during a visit to the Fed building for renovation, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence. COMEX gold futures rose and then fell, while COMEX silver futures maintained an oscillatory trend [2]. - Capital: Last week, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold and silver [2]. - Strategy: The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, continuing to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver has a slight upward trend in the short - term, and it is advisable to look for long - entry opportunities. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy when the price drops sharply to the lower edge of the oscillatory range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key indicators' price changes: The spot price of London gold decreased by 0.35% to $3343.50 per ounce, COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 0.39% to 777.32 yuan per gram. The spot price of London silver increased by 1.22% to $38.74 per ounce, COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose by 1.28% to 9392 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Gold - silver ratio: The gold - silver ratios of both the domestic and international markets decreased compared to last week, and both continued to repair to around 80 - 85, but were significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper in the US may drive enterprises to use silver as a substitute, increasing silver demand [10]. - Price spreads between domestic and international markets: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and international markets increased compared to last week. Affected by the US tariff trade policy and the Fed's independence, precious metals showed an oscillatory trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - US dollar index: Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, causing a slight decline in the US dollar index, which supported the precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury real yields: Last week, the real yield of the 5 - year US Treasury increased slightly, while that of the 10 - year US Treasury decreased. Affected by the changing expectations of US tariff policies and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metal prices oscillated [17]. - Inflation and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.8% and slightly lower than the expected 3%. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term, and the market expects a 62.4% probability of an interest - rate cut in September [22]. - Key US economic data: - PMI: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, slightly higher than the expected 48.8, and the service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than the expected 50.6 [25]. - Retail sales: In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, reversing the decline in May. Core retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.5% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [25]. - Employment data: In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, far lower than the expected increase of 95,000. Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000 [31]. - Fed's independence: Trump's visit to the Fed and pressure on Powell to cut interest rates, as well as a lawsuit against the Fed and the criticism from the US Treasury Secretary, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [34]. - US tariff trade: The US has made progress in tariff trade, but the policy remains uncertain. The US has reached tariff agreements with some countries, and is approaching the August 1 tariff deadline. The 50% tariff on copper may bring positive factors to silver [34]. - Central bank gold purchases: 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold investments in the next 12 - 24 months. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks net - purchased 244 tons of gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which supports the price of gold in the long - term [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge funds: As of the week ending July 22, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 39,900 lots to 253,000 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 12,000 lots to 60,600 lots [38]. - ETFs: As of July 25, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons to 957.09 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 572.22 tons to 15,230.43 tons, indicating an accelerated inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - Gold and silver inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 37.7624 million ounces, a 1.53% increase from the previous week, and COMEX silver inventories were 500.3207 million ounces, a 0.62% increase. The 50% tariff on copper may drive up the price of silver due to its industrial demand [43]. - Gold and silver demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, global total gold demand increased slightly year - on - year. The global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [46]. - Key events to watch this week: This week, important events include the third round of China - US economic and trade consultations, the release of US economic data such as PCE, core PCE, and the July non - farm payroll report, the Fed's July interest - rate meeting, and the approaching August 1 tariff deadline [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of commodities is driven by macro - sentiment. PTA may experience a short - term decline from high levels under the expectation of a fall in commodity sentiment due to new device production and poor terminal performance. MEG is expected to mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with its cost support limited and supply pressure postponed [6]. - The cost side shows that crude oil continues to fluctuate widely, and PX is expected to run warmly in the short term. The supply side of PTA remains stable, while the total supply of MEG is expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is expected to change little, and the terminal demand is weakly declining [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: OPEC+ is still in the process of increasing production, and geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil. PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment despite limited support from cost and a weakening naphtha [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Tianjin Petrochemical's maintenance led to a narrow decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.81%, down 0.35% from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 72.87%, down 0.28% [21]. - **Price Spread**: The PX - naphtha price spread rebounded slightly as naphtha prices weakened and commodity sentiment was good in China. As of July 25, the PX - naphtha price spread was 292.5 dollars/ton, up 30.55 dollars/ton from July 18 [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro factors, PTA had a weak rebound. The supply was stable, demand shrank slightly, and the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory. As of July 25, the PTA spot price was 4900 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 5 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices this week, and the capacity utilization fluctuated narrowly at 80.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In July, Helen Petrochemical plans to start production, and Hengli has a maintenance plan, so the PTA capacity utilization is expected to fluctuate slightly [30]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee was significantly repaired. Although the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory and downstream procurement enthusiasm was blocked, there was an expectation of increased maintenance at low processing fees, so the processing fee is expected to continue to be repaired at a low level next week [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, with the commissioning of new PTA devices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, the supply - demand of PTA turned to inventory accumulation [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro and cost factors, ethylene glycol rebounded significantly. After breaking through and rising, it entered a high - level volatile trend. As of July 25, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4579 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4580 yuan/ton [40]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Some devices reduced their loads, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization decreased slightly. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 59.20%, up 0.71% compared to the previous period. In July, domestic production is expected to increase, and overall supply will increase slightly [44]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to weak terminal demand, the ethylene glycol port inventory fluctuated at a low level. As of July 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was 47.5 tons, up 1.57 tons from July 21 [46]. - **Processing Profit**: Ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level, and processing profits increased across the board. As of July 25, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 81.9 dollars/ton, up 20.69 dollars/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 75.2 yuan/ton, up 35.73 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Side of the Industry Chain Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Due to large - scale production cuts, the polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly to 86.4%, down 0.29% from the previous period. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [54]. - **Production Volume**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and high cash - flow pressure, the polyester monthly output is expected to decline significantly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The capacity utilization of polyester products was differentiated. The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 92.09%, down 0.85% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was 84.78%, down 1.64% from the previous period; and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.58%, up 0.22% from last week [61]. - **Inventory**: Due to downstream centralized replenishment, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly [62]. - **Cash - Flow**: With the significant increase in raw material prices, the cash - flow of polyester products was compressed, and the cash - flow loss expanded [67]. - **Weaving Market**: The off - season atmosphere in the weaving market deepened, and the start - up rate continued to decline. As of July 24, the comprehensive start - up rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.59%, down 0.24% from the previous period, and the average terminal weaving order days were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.33 days from last week [70]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Crude oil declined, and PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment [72]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization remained flat, and the MEG capacity utilization increased slightly [72]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and the weaving industry start - up rate was low with weak terminal demand [72]. - **Inventory**: PTA inventory shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area fluctuated [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Paper pulp futures are mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand fundamentals remain in a stalemate, with high port inventory pressure, abundant supply of circulating goods, limited improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate widely in the range of 5260 - 5590 this week [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices rose slightly. Among them, the price of broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai increased, with increases ranging from 1.22% to 1.74%. Coniferous pulp prices such as Yin Xing, Kai Li Pu, and Bei Mu remained unchanged. Chemical mechanical pulp and bleached kraft pulp prices remained stable, while reed pulp prices dropped significantly by 15.22% [11][14]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 continued to oscillate upwards last week, closing at 5520 yuan/ton, up 4.31% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.936 million lots, an increase of 689,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 305,000 lots, an increase of 28,000 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of softwood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 400 yuan/ton, and the discount decreased by 228 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.18% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 164,000 lots, a decrease of 23,900 lots, and the weighted open interest was 31,500 lots, a decrease of 9900 lots [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, pulp production was 482,000 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week. Among them, broad - leaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp production was 210,000 tons, both showing a decline [22]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - Leaf Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 75.8%, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 88.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous week [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 3.36% from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 7.69%, and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 2.69% [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 85.0%, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate of broad - leaf pulp was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous month [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.31% from the previous month, and the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction in losses of 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Pulp Imports**: In June 2025, pulp imports were 3.0306 million tons, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and 16.12% from the same period last year. The cumulative imports from January to June were 18.5777 million tons, an increase of 4.2% from the same period last year [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 279,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [39]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the production of coated paper was 79,000 tons, an increase of 1.28% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.0%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The production of offset paper was 196,000 tons, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous week [43]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 311,000 tons, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 462,300 tons, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The production of containerboard was 594,000 tons, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [46][49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained basically stable, the price of white cardboard decreased slightly, and the prices of whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and containerboard remained stable [50][54][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tissue paper decreased by 1.5% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard increased by 2.58% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of offset paper increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of coated paper decreased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption decreased slightly [60][64][67]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend, with a total inventory of 2.143 million tons in mainstream ports, a decrease of 1.74% from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.96%, the inventory in Changshu Port decreased by 5.26%, and the inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 5.36% [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 243,600 tons, an increase of 1.43% from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong area are 224,500 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [74].

近期监管趋严，短期波动加大 目录 玻璃基本面 01 1、玻璃行情回顾 本月玻璃走势整体较强。在原料支撑及持续不断地政策刺激下，玻璃本月持续大幅反弹。月末， 由于短期过快上涨，带来交易所监管，引发大跌。 数据来源： 博易大师 正信期货研究院 900 1400 1900 2400 2900 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 2、估值--套利 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 01-05 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 沙河安全 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1月 2月 3月 4月 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy remains resilient, and expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Wait for the outcome of this week's macro events. Although OPEC+ has completed its voluntary production cut exit plan ahead of schedule, the peak demand season still provides support for oil prices. However, once the increased production is implemented, it will impact the market. In the short term, focus on short - term trading within the WTI range of $60 - 70, and in the medium to long term, look for opportunities to sell high after the peak demand season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - This week (July 21 - 25), international oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical and demand factors remained relatively stable, and short - term oil prices oscillated around the shale oil cost support. However, the support from peak - season demand may gradually weaken. As of July 25, WTI and Brent settled at $65.16/barrel (-1.74%) and $68.44/barrel (-0.38%) respectively; INE SC settled at 508.6 yuan/barrel (+0.9%) [9]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Against the backdrop of the extension of the tariff suspension, tariff negotiations between the US and other countries and favorable AI policies further boosted market sentiment, and US stocks continued to rise. As of July 25, the S&P 500 index reached 6388.64, continuing its rebound since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 14.93, continuing to decline from a low level [13]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - Crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of July 25, the crude oil volatility ETF was 32.88, and the US dollar index was 97.67. Crude oil volatility declined as risks eased, while the US dollar index remained under pressure due to significant macro uncertainties [16]. 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - WTI fund net long positions increased while speculative net long positions decreased. As of July 22, WTI managed fund net long positions decreased by 0.65 million contracts month - on - month to 9.82 million contracts, with a weekly increase of 7%; speculative net long positions decreased by 1.56 million contracts to 5.51 million contracts, a weekly decrease of 22%. Since July, peak - season demand has supported oil prices, which have remained around shale oil costs, and speculative long positions are mainly based on relative valuations for short - term operations [19]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC and OPEC+ Production - OPEC crude oil production increased month - on - month in June, rising by 21.9 million barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Most countries except Iran and Libya have started to increase production. However, the production of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 23,000 barrels per day below the plan in June, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their compensation production cut plans [24]. - According to the IEA's statistical method, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in June was 23.18 million barrels per day, an increase of 930,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, and the over - production margin increased compared to the previous month, possibly due to the gradual implementation of OPEC+'s increased production [28]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 1.73 million barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day in June. Iran's production declined rapidly, decreasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.241 million barrels per day in June, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [31]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistical method, Russia's crude oil production in June was 9.025 million barrels per day, an increase of 410,000 barrels per day month - on - month; according to the IEA's statistics, it was 9.19 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Production is gradually recovering under the production increase plan but remains at a very low level [40]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of July 25, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 415, a decrease of 7 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 67. The efficiency improvement of drilling and wells allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The number of rigs in the Permian Basin has decreased significantly, limiting the potential for increased crude oil production [45]. - As of the week of July 18, US crude oil production showed signs of peaking, dropping marginally to 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year have dampened producers' enthusiasm, reducing the potential for increased US oil production in the second half of the year. However, due to improved drilling efficiency, production will not decline sharply [48]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of July 18, the total weekly demand for US refined oil products and the four - week average rebounded significantly. The average daily demand was 21.77 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.586 million barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [52]. - As of the four - week period ending on July 18, the four - week average demand for US refined oil products decreased. Gasoline demand increased on a weekly basis, but the four - week average decreased by 180,000 barrels per day to 8.814 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.87%; distillate oil average demand decreased by 113,000 barrels per day to 3.619 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04%; kerosene - type average consumption decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 1.742 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.52% [57]. - The US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread oscillated and declined this week. As of July 25, the gasoline crack spread was $22.91 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $35.9 per barrel. The four - week average demand for gasoline and heating oil decreased, and crack spreads declined with the decrease in demand. Gasoline demand was weaker than in previous years, while heating oil demand was better than last year, leading to a divergence in crack spreads between different products [61]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of July 25, the ICE diesel crack spread was $29.14 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.62 per barrel. European diesel, due to low inventory and peak - season restocking demand, performed better than heating oil. The overall oil market was in a relatively warm atmosphere, with crack spreads at a moderately high level. However, diesel inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, cooling market sentiment and causing the crack spread to decline this week [65]. 3.3 China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation - China's crude oil demand is gradually entering the peak season. In June, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.927 million tons year - on - year to 62.245 million tons (+6.73%); imports increased by 3.438 million tons year - on - year to 49.888 million tons (+7.4%). In June, the escalation of the Middle East situation raised concerns about supply, leading to a surge in China's oil imports from the Gulf region. At the same time, the recovery of Russian oil supply was much higher than in previous years, and imports increased month - on - month and remained at a relatively high level [68]. 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - Among international institutions, EIA and OPEC maintained their previous judgments, while IEA continued to lower its forecast for global oil demand growth. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC estimated that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 800,000 barrels per day (-), 700,000 barrels per day (↓), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively. Next year, the growth rates will be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. EIA stated that this year's global oil demand growth is mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially India and China. IEA continuously lowered its forecast because it believes that emerging markets outside Europe and Asia have resilient oil demand, while oil demand in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and the US has decreased significantly due to trade frictions. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of global oil demand will continue in the second half of the year until 2026 when the global monetary and fiscal policies become more accommodative [73]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased. As of July 18, EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316,900 barrels from the previous week to 418.99 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.01%; SPR inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels to 21.863 million barrels [74]. - As of the week of July 18, US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 2.121 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 87,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 16.936 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 1.6% to 95.5% [78]. - The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure, but the indicators began to weaken. As of July 25, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.82 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $2.08 per barrel. As US refined oil demand gradually peaks, the support from the peak season for oil prices is weakening. With OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the month - spread may continue to decline [82]. 4.2 Brent Month - Spread - The Brent month - spread also maintained a backwardation structure, but showed signs of weakening on a weekly basis. As of July 25, the Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.78 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $2.01 per barrel [85]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to EIA's July forecast, this year's global oil supply is 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand is 103.54 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month's surplus. This is mainly because EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and production increases outside the group will continue to drive strong growth in global liquid fuel production [89]. 5.2 Term Structure - This week, US fundamental data showed that peak - season demand is starting to decline, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent, due to strong diesel demand and good crack spreads, can support a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as peak - season demand gradually weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [93].

煤焦周度报告 20250728 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上周盘面多次涨停，短期回调后预计延续偏强走势；现货提涨落地第二轮、第三轮，第四轮已然开启 | | | 价格 供给 | 焦企开工略有回升，供应恢复仍受限 | | | 需求 | 铁水维持高位，刚需支撑较强；投机需求高涨，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量略有改善 | | | 库存 | 焦化厂、港口去库，钢厂增库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利下滑，焦炭盘面利润继续回落 | | 焦炭 | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周煤矿查超产文件流出，叠加反内卷范围扩大、钢材未明显累库、煤焦现货成交火爆，双焦连续涨停。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约环比前一周涨 15.53%至1763，焦煤09合约环比前一周涨35.01%至1259。焦炭方面，现货提涨加快，因原料煤短缺、检修环保等因素焦化产量有一定限制。铁水维持 高位，刚需支撑较强，焦化厂惜售，钢厂到货略偏紧；盘面连续拉涨，投机需求持续分流货源。 | | | | 综合来看，反内卷预期交易持续；双焦供应恢复受 ...