Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second - round production increase of OPEC+ has been confirmed to start. EIA weekly data shows a signal of peak demand. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will increase OPEC+'s enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upper limit of the oil price. The mid - to - long - term idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, take advantage of the rebound and building opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation and interest - rate cut sentiment [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From September 1 - 5, international oil prices first rose and then fell. By September 5, WTI and Brent settled at $63.92/barrel (-0.38%) and $67.48/barrel (-1.01%) respectively; INE SC settled at 486.22 yuan/barrel (+1.14%) [10]. - Weekly price trends show that from August 29 to September 5, WTI fell by $2.1 (-3.34%), Brent by $2.6 (-3.85%), Oman by $1.1 (-1.61%), and SC by 0.6 yuan/barrel (-0.12%) [13]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - The US August non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, which reignited the sentiment of interest - rate cuts. By September 5, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound, and the VIX volatility remained at a relatively low level [16]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility fell this week, and the US dollar index also declined. By September 5, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 33.33, and the US dollar index was at 97.7357. The crude oil volatility first rose and then fell, and the US dollar index continued to fluctuate downward due to the renewed market expectation of interest - rate cuts [20]. 1.4 Net Long Positions in Crude Oil Funds - As of September 2, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 0.27 million contracts to 2.73 million contracts, a weekly increase of 11%, while speculative net long positions decreased by 0.97 million contracts to 7.51 million contracts, a weekly decrease of 11.5% [23]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in July, rising by 26.2 barrels/day to 2754.3 barrels/day. Most countries have started to increase production, but the production of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 8.4 barrels/day lower than planned in June [29]. - According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries decreased by 32 barrels/day to 2288 barrels/day in July. The over - production of some countries decreased compared with the previous month [33]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 17 barrels/day to 952.6 barrels/day in July, while Iran's production decreased by 1.2 barrels/day to 324.5 barrels/day [35]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in July was 912 barrels/day, a month - on - month increase of 9.5 barrels/day; according to IEA statistics, it was 920 barrels/day, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 barrels/day. The production is gradually recovering but remains at a very low level [42]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of September 5, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 69 year - on - year. The rig count in the Permian Basin decreased significantly, which may limit the growth space of crude oil production [46]. - As of the week of August 29, US crude oil production decreased marginally to 1342.3 barrels/day, a decrease of 1.6 barrels/day from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 0.92% [49]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Petroleum Product Demand - US petroleum product demand showed a signal of decline. The single - week demand for refined oil decreased, but the four - week average demand increased. As of August 29, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 2128.2 barrels/day, a week - on - week increase of 13.2 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 2.47% [53]. - The demand growth rate of refined oil slowed down. The four - week average demand for gasoline increased by 1.9 barrels/day to 905 barrels/day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.78%; the average demand for distillates increased by 1.2 barrels/day to 389.4 barrels/day, a year - on - year increase of 4.23%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 0.1 barrels/day to 179 barrels/day, a year - on - year increase of 4.37% [59]. - This week, the gasoline crack spread in the US declined, while the heating oil crack spread rebounded. By September 5, the gasoline crack spread was $20.63/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.18/barrel [62]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - By September 5, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.71/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $30.55/barrel. The crack spreads have recovered recently as the distillate demand has entered the seasonal upward channel [66]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - China's crude oil demand is gradually entering the peak season. In July, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.998 million tons year - on - year to 63.06 million tons (+6.77%); the import volume increased by 4.864 million tons year - on - year to 47.204 million tons (+11.49%) [70]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - Three major international institutions have different views on this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintains last month's forecast, IEA continues to lower the demand forecast, and EIA raises the forecast for global oil demand growth. In July, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 89 barrels/day (↑), 68 barrels/day (↓), and 130 barrels/day (-) respectively [74]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories rebounded. As of August 29, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 241,500 barrels to 420.71 million barrels, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%; SPR inventories increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.71 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels to 24.222 million barrels [75]. - The net import volume of crude oil rebounded, but the refinery operating rate declined. As of the week of August 29, the US net import volume of crude oil increased by 43.4 barrels/day to 285.8 barrels/day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 1.1 barrels/day to 1686.9 barrels/day, and the refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 94.3% [79]. - The WTI monthly spread maintained a back structure, but the spread indicators continued to weaken. By September 5, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.41/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.93/barrel [82]. 4.2 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread also maintained a back structure. By September 5, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.39/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.93/barrel. The monthly spread continued to shrink on a weekly basis [84]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to EIA's August forecast, this year's global oil supply is 105.36 million barrels per day, and the demand is 103.72 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared with last month. Although EIA raised the demand forecast, due to OPEC+'s early termination of the 2.2 million barrels/day voluntary production - cut plan, the supply pressure this year is expected to be greater [87]. 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the US fundamental data shows that the single - week peak - season demand may have reached its peak, and the term structure continued to flatten compared with last week. Brent can support a stronger positive - carry structure due to the strong diesel demand and good crack profits in the early stage. However, as the peak - season demand gradually weakens and OPEC accelerates production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [90].

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-09-08): Weak Demand in Peak Season, Divergent Trends in Black Commodities [1] Report Author - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group. Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices declined slightly, and the futures market fluctuated weakly [4] - **Supply**: Blast furnace production dropped significantly, and electric furnace production continued to decline [4] - **Inventory**: The accumulation rate of building material social inventory slowed down, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace [4] - **Demand**: Building material demand rebounded, while plate apparent demand declined significantly [4] - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits narrowed, and electric furnace losses widened [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 contract widened slightly, and the 1-5 spread remained inverted [4] - **Summary**: US employment data cooled significantly, China's anti-involution policy caused ripples, and the rumored real estate inventory acquisition policy might provide some support. Overall, industry sentiment was strong. Last week, blast furnace operations decreased, hot metal production dropped significantly, and electric furnace operations declined synchronously. Affected by Tangshan's production restrictions, overall supply decreased. In terms of demand, funds available at construction sites improved, leading to a rebound in building material demand, while plate demand declined due to significant production cuts by rolling mills. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products accumulated at an accelerated pace, mainly dragged down by plates. In general, the supply-demand structure of steel continued to weaken last week, with unobvious peak-season characteristics. However, considering the impact of production restrictions, attention should be paid to the demand recovery speed next week. For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single-sided steel trades and consider shorting the steel-ore ratio [4] Iron Ore - **Price**: Ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the futures market moved sideways [4] - **Supply**: Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and arrivals increased month-on-month [4] - **Demand**: Blast furnace production declined, leading to a month-on-month decrease in demand [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly, while downstream total inventory decreased slightly [4] - **Shipping**: Shipping costs both declined [4] - **Spread**: The 1-5 spread increased slightly, and the discount of the 01 contract narrowed [4] - **Summary**: After the end of Tangshan's production restrictions, there is an expectation of blast furnace复产. Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and arrivals also rose, resulting in a relatively loose supply. In terms of demand, affected by Tangshan's production restrictions, hot metal production dropped significantly, leading to an obvious decline in iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of a rapid recovery. In terms of inventory, the port throughput decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of iron ore increased month-on-month last week, while demand declined significantly, resulting in a looser supply-demand structure. In the short term, the market may still trade on the expectation of steel mill复产 and restocking. Compared with steel products, ore prices may maintain a current oscillating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, aggressive investors can consider short-term long positions on pullbacks [4] Steel Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar prices first declined and then rose, with a significant rebound on Friday due to strong policy expectations, and market sentiment improved. The 01 rebar contract fell 17 to 3143. Spot prices were slightly weak, with rebar in East China quoted at 3240 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 30 [10] Supply - **Blast Furnace**: According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.80 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.77 percentage points. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.19 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 228.84 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.29 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6.23 tons [13] - **Electric Furnace**: As of September 5, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.74%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 23.04 percentage points. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnaces nationwide continued to decline, mainly due to the relatively strong scrap steel prices, which significantly narrowed the profits of short-process steel mills, and some losses further expanded, leading some to choose to reduce production and conduct maintenance [20] - **Building Materials and Plates**: Last week, rebar production decreased slightly, with a cumulative decrease of 1.88 tons. Affected by the military parade, hot-rolled production in North China decreased significantly, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.5 tons in sample steel mills. Three steel mills in Northeast and North China had production line maintenance, which was basically scheduled to resume on the 4th, having a significant impact on short-term production [23] Demand - **Building Materials**: From August 27 to September 2, the national cement delivery volume was 2.5775 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.82%. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.53 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.53%. At the terminal, the impact of typhoon weather in South China was still obvious, and the demand recovery speed of construction sites nationwide was slow, with a simultaneous decline in the trading volume of building materials by traders [26] - **Plates**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from July. Although the month-on-month decline in new manufacturing orders and new export orders narrowed, they were still in the contraction period. Coupled with the decline in the demand for base materials due to North China's production restrictions, the overall domestic demand for plates remained weak [29] Profit - The steel mill profitability rate was 61.04%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 56.71 percentage points. In the short process, as of September 5, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 3332 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton. The average profit was -141 yuan/ton, and the off-peak electricity profit was -44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 1 yuan/ton [33] Inventory - **Building Materials**: As of September 5, the rebar social inventory accumulated slightly, with a cumulative increase of 1.72 tons. In terms of social inventory, except for a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 tons in Northwest China, other regions showed inventory accumulation, with the largest accumulation in East and North China, with week-on-week increases of 5.47 tons and 5.75 tons respectively [37] - **Plates**: In terms of hot-rolled coil social inventory, except for a week-on-week decrease of 0.65 tons in Northeast China, other regions showed inventory accumulation, with the largest accumulation in North and Central China, with week-on-week increases of 3.03 tons and 2.05 tons respectively. In terms of factory inventory, the factory inventory increased slightly by 0.3 tons last week, mainly concentrated in the East China region [40] Basis - Last week, the rebar basis rose 27 to 117, and the hot-rolled coil basis rose 36 to 60. Currently, the basis of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is at a relatively low level. In terms of trading, considering that the peak-season demand for rebar has not fully recovered, attention should be paid to the trading opportunity of the rebar basis widening [44] Inter-period Spread - The 1-5 spread of rebar remained at -48, unchanged from last week, and the inversion continued. In terms of the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coil, the inversion deepened by 4 to -10. In the short term, affected by the pressure of the 10th contract warehouse receipts on the spot market and the poor real demand, continuous inversion occurred, and the inversion situation was difficult to reverse [48] Inter-commodity Spread - The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar on the futures market continued to widen by 9 to 197. In terms of the spot spread, it rose 50 to 140. In terms of trading, attention should be paid to the trading opportunity when the 01 contract spread expands to over 200, choosing to expand the spread on pullbacks and being cautious about chasing long positions [51] Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range and rose slightly. The 01 contract rose 2 to 789.5, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 4 to 783 yuan/ton. Market sentiment improved slightly, and the overall market showed a rebound trend [57] Supply - **Global Shipment**: According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current value was 35.568 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.41 million tons. The weekly average global shipment volume in August was 32.775 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.04 million tons [60] - **Arrival**: The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.83 million tons. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 26.009 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 0.35 million tons [66] Demand - **Rigid Demand**: Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills decreased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills was 228,840 tons per day, a week-on-week decrease of 11,290 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared with the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 6,200 tons per day [69] - **Speculative Demand**: In terms of downstream procurement, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 873,000 tons per day, a week-on-week decrease of 143,000 tons, mainly affected by blast furnace maintenance and production cuts [73] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 144.2572 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 380,000 tons, a decrease of 11.85 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 16.63 million tons lower than the same period last year [76] - **Downstream Inventory**: As of September 5, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills nationwide surveyed by Mysteel was 89.3987 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 673,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8067 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 154,300 tons. The inventory consumption ratio was 31.85 days, a week-on-week increase of 1.43 days [79] Shipping - Shipping prices both declined. The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao was 10 US dollars, a week-on-week decrease of 0.22 US dollars, and the shipping price from Brazil to Qingdao was 23.7 US dollars, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9 US dollars [83] Spread - The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 5 to 16.9. Currently, the basis level is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunity of the basis widening, but it is expected to start in October. In terms of the spread, the 1-5 spread was 24.5, a week-on-week increase of 1.5, and the overall spread was flat [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA has a weak rebound expectation due to low processing fees, with domestic supply having an incremental expectation, terminal load slowly rising, and tight supply - demand leading to continuous de - stocking and low valuation after continuous decline [1][6]. - MEG has a weak rebound under the expectation of new capacity investment. Although the supply - demand structure is marginally improving and it is in the de - stocking cycle, the supply pressure after the new device is put into production is large, and it is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, increasing the risk of supply surplus. The end of the traditional fuel peak season leads to a seasonal decline in demand, and international oil prices are under pressure. PX prices fall due to weak cost support from oil prices and weak downstream market support. As of September 5, the Asian PX closing price is 830 US dollars/ton CFR China, down 18.67 US dollars/ton from August 29 [18]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, flat compared with last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.45%, also flat. Pay attention to the restart rhythm of the Fuhai Chuang device [22]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of September 5, the PX - naphtha spread is 233.8 US dollars/ton, down 17.54 US dollars/ton from August 29. Next week, PX supply - demand changes are limited, and the spread compression this week is obvious, so the short - term downward space is expected to be limited [26]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the overall PTA supply remains at a low level. Although some polyester enterprises that had been under maintenance restarted, due to weak costs and concerns about future supply increments, PTA oscillated weakly. As of September 5, the PTA spot price is 4585 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 2601 - 74 [29]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate drops to 69.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38%. In September, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic PTA device capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [32]. - **Processing Fees**: The short - term PTA supply - demand remains tight, but there is an expectation of device restart and weak demand, so the PTA processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [36]. - **Supply - Demand in September**: In September, with the restart of maintenance devices and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [38]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: Due to the news of new capacity investment, the supply - side pressure intensifies, and the ethylene glycol market shows a weak trend. As of September 5, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang is 4488 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market is 4480 yuan/ton [42]. - **Domestic Output**: The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate is 67.45%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34%. Some integrated devices restart after maintenance, and the domestic output slightly increases. In September, the overall output of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise [47]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports in East China is 37.63 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons from September 1 and 3.69 tons from August 28 [50]. - **Processing Profits**: The processing profits of ethylene glycol vary by process. As of September 5, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol is - 98.42 US dollars/ton, down 10.54 US dollars/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is - 56.7 yuan/ton, down 22.79 yuan/ton from last week [53]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Output Expectation**: The polyester weekly average capacity utilization rate is 87.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. Next week, some previously reduced - production devices are expected to restart, and the domestic polyester output is expected to increase slightly [57]. - **Polyester Capacity Utilization in September**: In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the restart of some devices, and the expected commissioning of new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to rise [60]. - **Polyester Filament Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament drops slightly. The capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber remains stable, and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips increases [63]. - **Product Inventory**: Although some enterprises have high sales volume, the overall sales level is average, and the polyester finished product inventory accumulates slightly [64]. - **Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreases, the polyester filament quotation is relatively firm, and the profits of most models are repaired, but the overall profit level of DTY is poor [67]. - **Terminal Market**: The terminal market sentiment improves, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions rises, the average order days increase, and the inventory is slightly reduced, but the inventory level is still high [72]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: International oil prices are weak, and PX prices fall due to weak cost and downstream support [74]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreases, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increases [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate increases, the terminal weaving starting rate rises, and the order days increase [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and MEG port inventory decreases [75].

纸浆：下游传统旺季不旺，浆价区间震荡为主 正信期货纸浆周报 20250908 研究员：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 供应端：上周纸浆产量为48.7万吨，环比增加0.5万吨（或+1.04%）；其中阔叶浆产量21.1万吨，化机浆 产量21.1万吨；本周浆企装置延续稳定运行，预计国产阔叶浆产量约20.6万吨，化机浆产量约20.9万吨 需求端：生活用纸市场，下游按需入市采买，主力纸企保持正常出货节奏，预计本周生活用纸产量约28.0 万吨；双胶纸市场，行业盈利水平欠佳，本周部分停产企业纸机计划复产，预期双胶纸产量约21.0万吨； 铜版纸市场，开工变化不大，整体消费将延续清淡，预计本周铜版纸产量约8.2万吨；白卡纸市场，本周有 停机纸厂计划复产，新产能稳定释放支撑产量增加，预计白卡纸产量约34.0万吨，将继续小幅增加。 库存端：国内港口库存呈去库走势，库存量为206.6万吨，环比去库1.8万吨（或-0.86%）；其中，青岛港 库存量141.5万吨，环比累库2.5万吨（或+1.8%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of soybean meal first rose and then fell. On the cost side, the USDA in August lowered the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit was raised, the output was still reduced. Meanwhile, the decrease in total demand was less than that in total supply, and the ending stocks were lowered, which was overall bullish for the market. The good rainfall in US soybean - growing areas supported a better pod - setting number this year. The net export sales of US soybeans were average, but China - US trade negotiations continued. With both bullish and bearish factors, US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. In the domestic market, the recent sufficient arrival of soybeans led to a high operating rate of oil mills, resulting in a loose supply of soybean meal. The weak downstream replenishment also put pressure on the spot price. Both the soybeans and soybean meal of oil mills were in the inventory - building cycle, and the short - term inventory increased. [6] - Currently, the spot market of soybean meal has a loose supply - demand situation, while the futures market is dominated by China - US tariff negotiations. A large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in the third and fourth quarters, ensuring sufficient supply of soybean meal. However, due to the possible impact of China - US tariffs, there is an expectation of a supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year. The expected reduction in US soybean output and strong crushing demand strengthen the expectation of rising import costs. As the new round of China - US negotiations did not mention the purchase of US soybeans, it is expected that soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short and medium term. In the long term, there is an expectation of an increase in the planting area of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean procurement in the second quarter of next year is sufficient, so there is still pressure on soybean meal. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of August 29th, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1053.00 cents per bushel, up 62.75 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 6.34%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 3055 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.63%. [12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - side: US Soybean Balance Sheet - The planting area of US soybeans was lowered by 2.5 million to 80.9 million acres. The yield per unit was raised by 1.1 to 53.6 bushels per acre. The output was reduced by 43 million to 4.292 billion bushels. The total supply was lowered by 63 million to 4.642 billion bushels. The export was lowered by 40 million to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending stocks were lowered by 20 million to 290 million bushels. [13][14] 3.2.2 Cost - side: US Soybean - growing Area Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low. [13] 3.2.3 Cost - side: US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 24th, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week of August 26th, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. [21] 3.2.4 Cost - side: US Soybean Export Sales - As of the week of August 21st, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were - 189,000 tons, and in the 2025/2026 season were 1.373 million tons. The cumulative sales this year were 50.8687 million tons, accounting for 99.67% of the August USDA estimated exports. [25] 3.2.5 Cost - side: Brazilian Soybean Export and Premium - ANEC estimated that the soybean export volume of Brazil in August would be about 8.88 million tons, an increase of about 900,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Most of Brazilian soybeans have been sold, reducing the sales pressure. However, due to the strong US soybean futures, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has fallen from a high level. [29] 3.2.6 Domestic: Imported Soybean Arrival - In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons compared with June and an increase of 1.813 million tons (18.4%) compared with July 2024. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans in China was 61.035 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons (4.63%) year - on - year. In the 34th week of 2025 (August 16th - August 22nd), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 2.1775 million tons. [34] 3.2.7 Domestic: Soybean Crushing Volume - In August 2025, the soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 11.46 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons (25.01%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.3048 million tons (12.84%) compared with the same period last year. [37] 3.2.8 Domestic: Downstream Demand for Soybean Meal - In August, the trading volume of oil mills was 4.8503 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 206,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 4.0054 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 313,500 tons. [39] 3.2.9 Domestic: Inventory of Soybeans and Soybean Meal in Oil Mills - In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major national oil mills increased to 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons (0.31%) from the previous week and a decrease of 394,000 tons (5.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (3.80%) from the previous week and a decrease of 445,300 tons (29.71%) year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts decreased. [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No detailed spread - tracking content analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread items such as the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, 01 oil - meal ratio, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, and 01 soybean - rapeseed meal spread are mentioned. [45][46][49][50]

Group 1: Core Views - Short - term macro factors will increase market disturbances, but long - term policy guidance is bullish. In September, overseas focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue, while domestic attention is on the 14th Five - Year Plan and Q4 economic policy guidance [4]. - The real estate market is in a weak state with both new and second - hand housing sales at low levels, but there is potential for improvement during the "Golden September and Silver October". The service industry is structurally differentiated and resilient at high levels, and the manufacturing industry is rebalancing after tariff policy disturbances [4]. - Domestic and overseas liquidity is tending to be loose. The domestic stock market has attracted leveraged funds and household deposits, but the pressure of share unlocks is increasing, and market divergence has emerged [4]. - After a sharp short - term rise, the valuation of each index has reached a relatively high historical level, and the stock - bond premium rate at home and abroad is low, so the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock index futures in September. Consider going long on IF and IH during sharp drops or a short - term arbitrage opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [4]. Group 2: Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, A - shares led the rise, and German stocks led the decline. The performance order is:科创50 index > ChiNext Index > Shanghai Composite Index > Nikkei 225 > Hang Seng Tech Index > NASDAQ > S&P 500 > FTSE Emerging Markets > FTSE Europe > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the communication industry led the rise, and the banking industry led the decline. The order is: communication > electronics > non - ferrous metals > computer > new energy… > transportation > steel > construction > coal > bank [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.07%, 0.34%, - 0.04%, and - 0.23% respectively. The discounts of IF and IH narrowed. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) changed by - 0.09%, 0.21%, 0.33%, and 0.29% respectively, and the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly converged. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.04%, 0.7%, 1.14%, and 1.36% respectively, and the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM converged significantly [21]. Group 3: Fund Flows Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds - In August, margin trading funds flowed in 259.09 billion yuan, and the margin balance accounted for 2.39% of the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, an increase of 0.06%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds increased by 321.65 billion yuan to 3.49364 trillion yuan, with a share redemption of 14.8 billion shares last month and a subscription of 215.2 billion shares in the latest week [24]. Industrial Capital - In July - August, equity financing was 20.78 billion yuan, with 3 companies. IPO financing was 2.56 billion yuan, private placement was 18.21 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.22 billion yuan. In August, the market value of share unlocks was 539.34 billion yuan, an increase of 250.95 billion yuan from the previous month [27]. Group 4: Liquidity Monetary Supply - In August, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 7.235 trillion yuan, and the reverse repurchase was 7.8518 trillion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 61.68 billion yuan. MLF had a net injection of 3 billion yuan, with a continuous net injection for six months and an increasing margin [29]. Monetary Demand - In August, the net monetary demand for national debt was 828.88 billion yuan, local debt was 804.34 billion yuan, and other bonds was 544.59 billion yuan. The total net monetary demand for the bond market was 2177.81 billion yuan [32]. Fund Price - In August, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 3.8bp, - 14.5bp, and - 6bp respectively. The inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate decreased by 0.8bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks rebounded by 4bp. The fund price rebounded slightly at a low level [35]. Term Structure - In August, the yield curve steepened significantly. The long - end yields of national debt and policy - bank bonds rebounded, and the long - end credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened [39]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In August, the US 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 11.0bp, the inflation expectation decreased by 2.0bp, and the real interest rate decreased by 9.0bp. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 20.04bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 1.22% [42]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of August 28, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities seasonally rebounded but was at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally. The real estate market is in a weak state, but rigid demand supports the lower limit [45]. Service Industry Activity - As of August 29, the subway passenger volume in 28 large cities remained high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.5% compared to last year and 51% compared to 2021. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded, and the service industry's economic activity is trending towards a natural and stable growth level [48]. Manufacturing Tracking - In August, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry declined under the anti - involution policy. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand increased by 0.58% [52]. Freight Flow - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The postal express and civil aviation sectors grew strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, and railway transportation rebounded significantly [57]. Import and Export - China's exports continued to grow strongly. After three rounds of Sino - US negotiations, a 90 - day exemption was extended, and Q3 exports were stronger than the season, which may continue [60]. Overseas Situation - In July, US PCE inflation continued to rebound, and the market's optimistic expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year has weakened. The market expects 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp [62][66]. Group 6: Other Analyses Valuation - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.64%, a significant decrease of 0.43% from the previous month. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.63%, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous month. The valuations of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at relatively high levels in the past 5 years [69][74]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to seasonal patterns, the stock market is likely to be in a state of seasonal shock and decline in September, with a growth style that first outperforms and then corrects. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting IC and IM and going long on IF and IH [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the egg industry is bearish, with the supply rating being bearish, demand and profit being neutral, and strategies being bearish [2] Report's Core View - In the context of high egg production capacity, the traditional peak season this year is lackluster. The price of eggs is expected to decline until March next year, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is likely to continue [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: Involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [3][5] - **Egg Basis**: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [6][8] - **Egg Spread**: Focuses on the spreads between different egg futures contracts [9][10] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: Examines the long - short ratios of institutional positions in the October and November egg futures contracts [12][13] Supply Analysis - **Laying Hen Inventory**: Covers laying hen inventory and its structure [15][16] - **Culling Situation**: Includes culling prices, average culling age, and the number of culled hens in sample enterprises [17][18] - **Replenishment Situation**: Analyzes the price and sales volume of commercial layer chicks [19][21] - **Large and Small Egg Sizes**: Considers the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of their price spreads [22][23] Demand Analysis - **Shipping Volume and Sales Volume**: Analyzes the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipping volume in main production areas [24][25] - **Inventory**: Covers the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - **Substitutes**: Examines the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and eggs and vegetables [29][31] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Cost**: Includes the feed cost per catty of eggs and the average price of layer feed [33][34] - **Breeding Profit**: Analyzes the egg - feed ratio, expected profit, and comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [35][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, considering the supply pattern affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to abundant. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend to shift towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage by rolling at low prices [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price. The fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of buying aluminum and shorting zinc by rolling at low prices [5]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From August 15th to August 22nd, 2025, LME copper rose by 0.37% (from 9760 to 9796.5), LME aluminum by 0.73% (from 2603 to 2622), LME zinc by 0.32% (from 2796.5 to 2805.5), LME lead by 0.71% (from 1981 to 1995), LME tin by 0.70% (from 33610 to 33845), while LME nickel fell by 0.63% (from 15195 to 15100). SHFE copper fell by 0.47% (from 79060 to 78690), SHFE aluminum by 0.67% (from 20770 to 20630), SHFE zinc by 1.02% (from 22505 to 22275), SHFE lead by 0.42% (from 16850 to 16780), SHFE nickel by 0.82% (from 120600 to 119610), and SHFE tin by 0.33% (from 266820 to 265930) [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Copper's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, nickel's single - side open interest increased by 9.1% month - on - month, while those of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin decreased by 1.3%, 4.3%, 1.9%, 3.8%, and 3.7% respectively. Except for nickel and tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part Two: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22nd, 2025, compared with August 15th, LME copper inventory increased by 0.11% (from 155800 to 155975), LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.17% (from 479550 to 478725), LME zinc inventory decreased by 10.81% (from 76325 to 68075), LME lead inventory increased by 4.58% (from 261100 to 273050), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.90% (from 211662 to 209748), and LME tin inventory increased by 7.85% (from 1655 to 1785) [28]. - **Smelting Profit Situation**: This week, copper's processing fee decreased slightly month - on - month, and smelters suffered a loss of 2350 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18624 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2126 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 1230 yuan/ton [43]. Part Three: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: On August 22nd, 2025, the copper basis was 320 (compared with 180 on August 15th), the aluminum basis was 120 (compared with - 90 on August 15th), the zinc basis was - 65 (compared with - 45 on August 15th), the lead basis was 60 (compared with - 10 on August 15th), the nickel basis was 1280 (compared with 1220 on August 15th), and the tin basis was 10 (compared with - 810 on August 15th) [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel and tin were in the Contango structure. Copper's spread between the first - nearby contract was - 40, an increase of 70 compared with last week; aluminum's spread was - 20, a decrease of 35 compared with last week; zinc's spread was 0, a decrease of 25 compared with last week; lead's spread was 0, a decrease of 90 compared with last week; nickel's spread was 150, a decrease of 50 compared with last week; tin's spread was 200, a decrease of 410 compared with last week [62]. Part Four: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The Shanghai - to - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - to - London ratios of base metals were copper (1.12), aluminum (1.10), zinc (1.11), lead (1.17), nickel (1.10), and tin (1.09) [78]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper and nickel were 103 and 415 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations [78]. Part Five: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes of Non - ferrous Metals - As of August 22nd, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.81 (79.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - zinc ratio was 3.53 (97.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - lead ratio was 4.69 (89.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - nickel ratio was 1.52 (1.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - tin ratio was 3.38 (68.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.08 (5.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.23 (74.3% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - nickel ratio was 5.80 (0.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - tin ratio was 12.89 (73.7% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - lead ratio was 1.33 (30.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.37 (9.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - tin ratio was 11.94 (88.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - nickel ratio was 7.13 (7.0% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - tin ratio was 15.85 (79.2% in terms of the ratio percentile), and the nickel - tin ratio was 2.22 (98.9% in terms of the ratio percentile) [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The supply increased overall, the construction material demand continued to decline, and the plate demand remained flat. The five major steel products accelerated inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, and the differentiation between varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [6]. - For iron ore, the price fluctuated narrowly, and the futures price was weak. The supply increased month - on - month, and the demand remained basically the same. The supply - demand structure became looser month - on - month. In the short term, the market is waiting and seeing. The strength of the peak - season demand for finished products cannot be verified or falsified, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded. Compared with finished products, the iron ore price may maintain the current oscillating and relatively strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price fluctuated and declined last week. The rebar 10 contract fell 69 points to close at 3119, and the spot price in East China dropped 30 yuan/ton week - on - week to 3290 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate decreased, but the output increased. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons week - on - week. Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month, but the impact time is short [14][18]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week. The short - process supply decreased due to factors such as tight scrap resources and falling rebar prices [21]. - The total output of the five major steel products last week was 878.06 tons, an increase of 6.43 tons week - on - week. Rebar production decreased significantly, while plate production increased [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 13th to 19th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased by 0.6% week - on - week. Although the high - temperature weather still significantly affected the construction material demand, the bottom of the demand may have appeared [28]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in July was 5.7%, and that of the equipment manufacturing industry was 8.4%. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [31]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3336 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that both blast furnace and electric arc furnace profits will continue to shrink [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1441.04 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons week - on - week. The accumulation rate of rebar social inventory slowed down, and the factory inventory increased slightly [39]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons last week, and the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons. The overall inventory level is still relatively low [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 151, an increase of 39 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was 19, an increase of 28 compared with last week. Due to the relatively strong spot price during the peak season, the basis is difficult to repair significantly [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 76, and the inversion narrowed by 5 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread for potential positive - spread opportunities [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 242, a narrowing of 9 compared with last week. The spot spread was 110, a narrowing of 20 compared with last week. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the 01 spread narrowing when the production - restriction policy is fully implemented [51]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly last week. The 01 contract fell 6 points to close at 770, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton to 767 yuan/ton. The market sentiment cooled, and the overall market was in a wait - and - see mode [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume from Australia decreased by 690,000 tons month - on - month, while that from Brazil increased by 710,000 tons month - on - month [59][62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.32 million tons week - on - week [65]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4075 million tons/day, an increase of 900 tons/day week - on - week. The demand for iron ore remained at a high level, showing strong resilience [68]. - The average daily port trading volume was 1.016 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished inventory as needed [71]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 144.442 million tons, an increase of 630,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills was 27.5193 million tons, a decrease of 240,100 tons compared with the previous period. The overall change was not significant [78]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.21 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 23.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 22.5, an increase of 2 compared with last week, and it is at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 20, basically the same as last week, and the basis level is relatively low [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Fundamental: Last week, the Fed's July meeting showed significant internal divergence on interest rate cuts, with most officials' public speeches leaning hawkish, leading the market to lower expectations for a September rate cut and pressuring precious metal prices. However, Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday revived September rate cut expectations. In terms of risk aversion, the US and Europe reached a trade agreement framework, imposing a 15% tariff on most goods, and preparations for a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine were underway, reducing tariff and geopolitical disturbances. Precious metal prices first declined and then rose last week, mainly affected by Fed rate cut expectations [3]. - Capital: Last week, COMEX gold inventories decreased while silver inventories increased. Gold ETF fund inflows slowed, while silver ETF fund inflows increased. Hedge funds reduced their bullish positions in gold, and the non - commercial net long positions in silver slightly increased. Overall, silver ETF and hedge fund investments were relatively strong last week [3]. - Strategy: The US economic policy uncertainty index has remained at a historically high level for a long time. The US tariff and trade policies not only increase US inflation pressure but also lead the global trade system into a stage of turmoil and reconstruction. Meanwhile, the US debt scale continues to expand, and the international community is concerned about the US fiscal sustainability. Precious metals, as strategic assets, have good risk - resistance capabilities, and the hedging demand provides a bottom - support for their prices. Coupled with the continued central bank gold - buying trend, precious metals still have upward - driving opportunities in the future. The Shanghai gold price is bullish in the long - term, oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. For Shanghai silver, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Key Indicator Fluctuations: London spot gold price was $3334.25/ounce, a 0.04% change; COMEX gold futures were $3417.33/ounce, up 0.70%; Shanghai gold main contract was 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.34%. London spot silver price was $38.01/ounce, up 0.73%; COMEX silver futures were $38.88/ounce, up 2.26%; Shanghai silver main contract was 9192.00 yuan/kg, down 0.13% [6]. - Domestic and Foreign Gold - to - Silver Ratios: The domestic and foreign gold - to - silver ratios decreased slightly last week. The domestic ratio repaired to around 84, and the foreign ratio to around 87, significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. Powell's speech boosted September rate cut expectations, and the gold - to - silver ratio will continue to repair, opening up the price elasticity of silver [9]. - Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads: The domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver decreased slightly. Affected by Fed rate cut expectations and tariff - related risk aversion, prices were oscillating [12]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - US Dollar Index: Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, emphasizing concerns about the employment market, significantly increased market expectations for a September rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and precious metal prices to rise [13]. - US Treasury Real Yields: Last week, the 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasury real yields declined, mainly due to Powell's dovish speech. The increased rate - cut expectations led to a drop in Treasury yields and boosted precious metal prices [16]. - US Key Economic Data - CPI: In July, US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.8%), and core CPI increased 3% year - on - year (previous value 2.9%, expected 3%). Core inflation slightly rebounded, with service prices rising significantly and inflation pressure controllable [21]. - PPI: In July, US PPI increased 3.3% year - on - year (expected 2.5%) and 0.9% month - on - month (expected 0.2%), the largest increase since June 2022, indicating a significant increase in corporate production costs, mainly driven by service inflation [21]. - Core PCE: In June, the US core PCE price index increased 2.8% year - on - year (expected 2.7%), a four - month high, and the overall PCE price index increased 2.6% year - on - year (expected 2.5%) [24]. - PMI: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48 (expected 49.5), breaking below the boom - bust line; the ISM services PMI was 50.1 (expected 51.1), approaching the critical point, indicating a significant slowdown in the service industry [27]. - Retail Sales: In July, US retail sales increased 0.51% month - on - month, and core retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) increased 0.27% month - on - month, showing some improvement in consumer activity [27]. - Employment Data: In July, US ADP employment increased by 104,000 (expected 75,000), but the labor market cooled. Non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 (expected 110,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [30]. - Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The Fed remains divided on rate cuts. Before the September meeting, new inflation and employment data will provide more guidance. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium boosted rate - cut expectations [33]. - Tariff and Geopolitical Situation: The US and Europe reached a trade agreement framework, and preparations for a US - Russia - Ukraine meeting were underway, reducing tariff and geopolitical disturbances and alleviating risk - aversion sentiment [33]. 3. Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of August 19, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions decreased by 16,900 lots to 212,600 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 2,300 lots to 46,500 lots [36]. - ETF Positions: As of August 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 8.59 tons to 956.77 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 217.50 tons to 15,288.82 tons [37]. 4. Other Elements - Gold and Silver Inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 38.5638 million ounces, a 0.19% decrease, and COMEX silver inventories were 508.4869 million ounces, a 0.18% increase [44]. - Gold and Silver Demand: In August 2025, global gold reserves increased by 38.65 tons to 36,344.49 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 2.18 tons to 2,298.53 tons. In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased 3% year - on - year to 1,249 tons. The global silver shortage is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, and silver prices are expected to be boosted by loose monetary policy and industrial demand [47]. - This Week's Key Attention: This week, important events include Fed officials' speeches and the release of US economic data such as July PCE price index, Q2 GDP, and July durable goods orders, which may provide new guidance for the Fed's rate - cut path [49][50].