Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to experience weak oscillations in the short - term due to macro - level disturbances, a slight increase in supply, mediocre demand during the traditional peak season, and a pessimistic long - term supply - demand outlook. The industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high prices and pay attention to unplanned production cuts or halts [6]. - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is likely to maintain a weak pattern in the short - term as there is a strong expectation of a weakening in supply - demand balance and inventory is accumulating at the main ports [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: International oil prices declined due to the International Energy Agency's warning of long - term supply surplus and trade disputes initiated by the US. PX prices dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil because of weak cost support and a low PX - naphtha spread. As of October 17, the Asian PX closing price was $783.17/ton CFR China, down $15/ton or 1.88% from October 10 [15]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 0.81% decrease from the previous week. Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month, and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued to be under maintenance, with a planned restart in early November [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of October 17, the PX - naphtha spread reached $246.2/ton, up $24.75/ton from October 10. The spread continued to recover due to low processing fees, low production willingness of enterprises, and a short - term shortage of spot in November [23]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: PTA prices oscillated weakly. Although the supply was tightened by a planned production cut of a major producer in the Northeast, the price was dragged down by lower international oil prices due to tariff disputes and weak long - term industry expectations. As of October 17, the PTA spot price was 4340 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 83 [26]. - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.56%, a 2.28% decrease from the previous week. Hengli Petrochemical carried out a planned production cut, while Yisheng New Materials increased its load during the week. In October, there are maintenance plans for Ineos and Hengli, and the restart time of Yisheng Dahua and Hainan is uncertain, so the monthly PTA output may increase significantly [29]. - **PTA Processing Fees**: PTA processing fees were under pressure as the international oil prices continued to decline due to the ongoing tariff disputes, and there was a lack of positive support in the industrial chain. Next week, with the planned restart of maintenance devices and little change in the polyester sector, the destocking rate in the balance sheet will narrow, and PTA processing fees may continue to be under pressure [31]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of maintenance devices, and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: Ethylene glycol prices declined weakly under the double pressure of cost and supply - demand. Affected by the expectation of increased supply and the decline of international oil prices, upstream raw materials were in a downward trend. Although there was a rebound on Thursday due to the general rise of commodities, it continued to be weak on Friday due to the drag of crude oil. As of October 17, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4096 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4230 yuan/ton [40]. - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.05%, a 0.37% decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 68.93%, a 1.07% decrease, while the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.24%, a 0.75% increase. In October, the inventory accumulation at ports is limited due to cautious import expectations, but there is an obvious expectation of increased domestic production [44]. - **MEG Port Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 893,000 tons. As of October 16, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 493,000 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from October 13 [46]. - **MEG Processing Profits**: The prices of ethylene glycol were weak, and the processing profits of various processes showed both increases and decreases. As of October 17, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol production was - $108.89/ton, an increase of $17.29/ton from the previous week, while the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production was - 470.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. 4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Device Load**: The polyester devices had no clear changes. The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week. Next week, the polyester load is expected to gradually increase as previously commissioned devices and long - shut - down devices restart, and new devices are planned to be commissioned [54]. - **Polyester Capacity Utilization Outlook**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a 1.12% increase from the previous month. After successful destocking before the festival, the polyester inventory in October is under little pressure, and the monthly polyester load is expected to remain stable [55]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Products**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.06%, a 0.03% decrease from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.16%, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.12%, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [60]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the finished - product inventory of polyester factories accumulated slightly during the week [63]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and the price decline of polyester products was less than that of raw materials, so the cash flow of most models was restored [64]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 16, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.06%, unchanged from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.79 days, an increase of 0.50 days from the previous week. In mid - October, the weaving market orders were differentiated, and the order volume increased slightly compared with September, but the overall increase was not significant due to the temperature difference between the north and the south [69]. 5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International oil prices declined. PX prices also dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil due to a low PX - naphtha spread [71]. - **Supply**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate also declined slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based devices [71]. - **Demand**: The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained stable. The weaving orders increased slightly but were still affected by temperature differences [71]. - **Inventory**: PTA is expected to be tight in the near - term but face inventory accumulation in the long - term. The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the de - stocking trend of domestic port inventory, but the absolute inventory value remains high. The spot market shows a situation where the price of coniferous pulp is weak and that of broad - leaf pulp is stable. The wood pulp consumption of downstream products such as household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard has slightly increased, but there is still inventory pressure on finished paper and the industry profit is meager. The futures market is easily affected by macro - sentiment. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2601 contract will fluctuate and rebound in the range of 5050 - 5280 this week [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: The spot market price of pulp last week was stable for broad - leaf pulp and weak for coniferous pulp. Among them, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); the price of broad - leaf pulp Bird increased by 20 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%). The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp were all flat week - on - week [11][14] - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2601 showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and finally slightly rebounding in a range of more than 150 points last week. It closed at 5122 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton (+ 0.87%), with the weighted trading volume increasing by 1069000 lots and the weighted open interest increasing by 18000 lots [15] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of pulp futures and spot decreased last week. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 354 yuan/ton compared with last week [19] - **Log Futures Review**: The log futures contract 2601 showed a trend of first falling, then rising, and finally rebounding last week. It closed at 835.5 yuan/cubic meter, a weekly increase of 7.5 yuan/cubic meter (+ 0.91%), with the weighted trading volume increasing by 499000 lots and the weighted open interest increasing by 18000 lots [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Output**: Last week, the pulp output was 529000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4000 tons (+ 0.76%). It is expected that the domestic broad - leaf pulp output will be about 220000 tons and the chemical mechanical pulp output will be about 235000 tons this week [22] - **Capacity Utilization Rate of Broad - Leaf Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 85.8%, a week - on - week increase of 3.1%; that of chemical mechanical pulp was 89.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of broad - leaf pulp will decline next week due to maintenance plans [25] - **Monthly Pulp Output**: In September 2025, the domestic pulp output was 2.196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69000 tons (+ 3.24%); the wood pulp output was 1.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74000 tons (+ 4.07%); the non - wood pulp output was 306000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons (- 1.61%) [27] - **Capacity Utilization Rate of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Broad - Leaf Pulp**: In September 2025, the domestic chemical mechanical pulp output was 902000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons (+ 1.12%), with the capacity utilization rate at 81.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the broad - leaf pulp output was 988000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64000 tons (+ 6.93%), with the capacity utilization rate at 82.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [32] - **Monthly Production Profit of Pulp**: In September 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 575.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.1 yuan/ton (+ 9.33%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 301.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [35] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.9525 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 299600 tons (+ 11.29%) and a year - on - year increase of 272500 tons (+ 10.17%). The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 27.0608 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.42 million tons (+ 5.6%) [36] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Capacity Utilization Rate of Downstream Products**: The output of domestic household paper last week was 280800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons (+ 0.21%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The output of offset paper was 203000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13000 tons (+ 6.84%), and the capacity utilization rate was 53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.6%. The output of coated paper was 79000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9000 tons (+ 12.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 58.3%, a week - on - week increase of 6.6%. The output of white cardboard was 345000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons (+ 0.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 76.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [40][43][46][47] - **Gross Profit of Downstream Base Paper**: The gross profit of household paper last week was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton (+ 5.33%); the gross profit of white cardboard was 109 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton (+ 3.81%). The average cost of offset paper decreased by 6.6 yuan/ton (- 0.13%), and the gross profit was - 249 yuan/ton, a week - on - week reduction of losses by 6 yuan/ton. The average cost of coated paper decreased by 5.6 yuan/ton (- 0.12%), and the gross profit was 188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton (+ 2.73%) [51][54] - **Actual Consumption of Domestic Pulp**: In September 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp was 3.461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59000 tons (+ 1.75%) and a year - on - year increase of 237000 tons (+ 7.36%) [55] - **Spot Price Analysis of Downstream Base Paper**: The price of household paper remained stable last week, while the price of coated paper decreased. The price of offset paper remained flat, and the prices of white board paper and white cardboard increased slightly [58][62] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: The overall domestic port inventory showed a de - stocking trend, with the total inventory of mainstream ports at 2.074 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3000 tons (- 0.14%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.402 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7000 tons (+ 0.5%); the inventory in Changshu Port was 498000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16000 tons (+ 3.32%); the inventory in Tianjin Port was 78000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3000 tons (- 3.7%) [65][66] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipt**: The current pulp futures warehouse receipt was 230100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3214 tons (- 1.38%); the total warehouse receipt in Shandong was 217500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3110 tons (- 1.48%) [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The US government shutdown and Sino-US frictions before the APEC meeting have led to a RISK OFF trading mode, negatively impacting overvalued and crowded AI technology assets. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and the Fourth Plenary Session in China next week may bring unexpected positive effects; otherwise, the market may face further adjustment risks [4]. - Domestically, economic data remains weak, especially in consumption and real estate. Industrial enterprise capacity utilization has declined marginally, indicating slow progress in anti-involution policies and ongoing efforts to reverse deflation. Leading companies in pro-cyclical industries are expected to have better profit prospects [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally loose, but the central bank has tightened funds in the open market. Passive ETF funds and margin trading funds have continued to attract capital, while industrial capital has increased its reduction, and foreign capital has flowed out significantly recently. Credit impulses have started to decline from their peak, weakening the positive impact of market liquidity [4]. - After a short-term small adjustment, the valuations of various indices remain at relatively high historical levels. The equity-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are at historical lows, and broad-based indices have limited attractiveness to allocation funds, but there are still structural opportunities [4]. - Overall, the limited liquidity in the large-scale market makes it difficult to drive continuous growth. During the window of positive macro-policy implementation, the market will choose a direction, with funds shifting from the aggressive growth style to the cyclical style for year-end valuation switching. It is recommended to adopt a high-selling and low-buying strategy for stock index futures next week, selling short IC and IM index futures on rebounds and buying long IF and IH index futures on sharp declines [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Performance**: In the past week, the Dow Jones Index led the gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the losses. The performance order was Dow Jones Index > FTSE Europe > FTSE Emerging Index > Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 > Nikkei 225 > Germany DAX > CSI 300 > CSI 500 > Hang Seng Tech Index [8]. - **Domestic Stock Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.99%, the ChiNext Index by 5.71%, and the Hang Seng Index by 3.97%, among others [9]. - **Industry Performance**: The banking sector led the gains, while the consumer services sector led the losses [12]. - **Futures Performance**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.47%, 0.63%, 0.9%, and 0.88% respectively, and the delivery discounts of the four major futures converged to par. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.55%, - 0.67%, - 1.05%, and - 0.57% respectively, and the inter - period discounts significantly widened. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.66%, - 0.73%, - 1.27%, and - 0.58% respectively, and the forward discounts of each futures contract widened significantly [20]. 2. Fund Flow - **Margin Trading and Stabilization Funds**: Margin trading funds continued to flow in 15.42 billion yuan last week, reaching 2.46 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.63%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds decreased by 70.07 billion yuan to 3638.85 billion yuan last week, due to the market decline [23]. - **Industrial Capital**: In October, the cumulative equity financing was 13.56 billion yuan, with 1 company involved. Among them, IPO financing was 0.79 billion yuan, private placement was 12.77 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.8 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing decreased significantly. The market value of stock market unlockings last week was 78.4 billion yuan, an increase of 32.6 billion yuan from the previous week. The annualized reduction in October was 248.4 billion yuan, and the scale of reduction continued to increase marginally [26]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired at 1021 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase injection of 67.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 347.9 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection of 300 billion yuan in September, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral to loose but tightened marginally [28]. - **Monetary Demand**: Last week, the net monetary demand from national debt issuance was 16.63 billion yuan, and from local debt issuance was 18.09 billion yuan. The total net monetary demand from the bond market was 557.58 billion yuan. The debt financing demand of local governments and national debt decreased significantly, while that of enterprises increased marginally [31]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 1.4bp, 3.8bp, and 0bp respectively to 1.41%, 1.36%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 8.2bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks increased by 4.4bp to 1.67%. The overall fund price fluctuated at a low level and increased marginally [34]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year national bonds changed by - 1.6bp, - 1.4bp, and - 0.7bp respectively, and the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year national development bonds changed by - 4.6bp, - 2bp, and 0.3bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to flatten, the long - end yields declined slightly due to stock market adjustments and weak economic data, and the short - end yields were relatively strong due to liquidity tightening. The credit spread between national bonds and national development bonds narrowed at the long - end, and the expectation of broad credit cooled down [38]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of October 17, the US 10 - year Treasury yield changed by - 3.0bp to 4.02%, the inflation expectation changed by - 3.0bp to 2.27%, and the real interest rate remained unchanged at 1.75%. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 3.42bp to - 219.43bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.28% [40]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of October 16, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.129 million square meters, a seasonal increase of 0.483 million square meters from the previous week, but a 49.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. The second - hand housing sales rebounded seasonally, but the overall real estate market still showed a weak peak season. The market sales were supported by rigid demand at a low level, and more incremental policies were awaited to boost the recovery [43]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of October 17, the average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.8% year - on - year to 81.44 million person - times, but increased by 24.8% compared to the same period in 2021. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, and the service industry economic activity tended to grow naturally and stably but cooled down marginally [47]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry stopped falling and rebounded. The capacity utilization rates of steel mills, asphalt, cement clinker enterprises, and coke enterprises changed by - 0.22%, 1.3%, - 2.87%, and - 0.94% respectively. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.13% from the previous week. Overall, the internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry cooled down, the capacity utilization rate decreased marginally, and the external demand was under short - term pressure due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions [51]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels but declined marginally beyond the seasonal norm, indicating the pressure on the real economy. The transportation volume of highways and railways decreased beyond the seasonal norm, indicating a cooling of exports [56]. - **Imports and Exports**: In terms of exports, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the approaching expiration of the 90 - day exemption, and the end of the rush to export under tariff disturbances will increase the export pressure marginally in the future [58]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US economic data is strong. Although the US government shutdown has affected the release of CPI and non - farm payroll reports, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in the remaining part of 2025, with a total reduction of about 50bp. The probability of an interest rate cut in October is as high as 99%, and the probability in December has risen to 94%. The expected end - of - year interest rate is between 3.5% - 3.75% [61]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The equity - bond risk premium was 2.68%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week, at the 48.3% quantile, below the central level. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.62%, a rebound of 0.08% from the previous week, at the 18.5% quantile, indicating a low level of attractiveness to foreign capital. The valuations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 90.1%, 83.9%, 93.6%, and 79.7% quantiles respectively in the past five years, at relatively high levels. The quantiles changed by 3.3%, - 3.1%, - 5%, and - 4.1% respectively from the previous week, indicating that the attractiveness of the cyclical style decreased marginally, while that of the growth style index increased marginally [64][69]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in October is in a period of seasonal oscillatory rise and structural differentiation, with the cyclical style dominant and the growth style generally oscillating at a high level. The stock market in October generally has a good profit - making effect, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the relatively weak real economy, but with positive macro - policy expectations in October, it is recommended to buy long stock index futures on sharp declines this week and bet on the oversold rebound opportunities of IC and IM [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - At the transition point between the old and new sugar crushing seasons, the pressure on the supply side is increasing, and the global sugar market is oscillating weakly. The international sugar price has hit the bottom several times. The short - term market trades on the accelerating production rhythm in Brazil. After the end of the Brazilian crushing season, when the market supply returns to being dominated by Asian producers, there will still be pressure on the market. The domestic market is dominated by the pricing logic of imported sugar and is expected to oscillate within a short - term range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - **International Market**: Since August, Brazil's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the gap in cumulative sugar production compared to the previous season has narrowed to 0.08%. Institutions expect an increase in sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 crushing season. The good weather conditions lead to a high expectation of a bumper harvest. The short - term market has a strong bearish sentiment, and the international sugar price is under pressure. However, the narrowing of the sugar - ethanol price difference in Brazil provides some support for the price [5]. - **Domestic Market**: Since the end of September, sugar beet factories in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, kicking off the 25/26 crushing season in China. In the previous season, the national sugar production increased by 12% year - on - year, and the sugar sales increased by 23% year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 89.6%. In August, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the import of syrup and sugar premix was 32,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 238,500 tons. The price of imported sugar has declined, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imports has opened up. It is expected that imported sugar will continue to dominate the domestic market in October, suppressing the sugar price. After November, the main domestic production areas will start crushing, and attention should be paid to the crushing progress [5]. 3.2 Market Review - In September, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained an oscillating and weakening pattern [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Foreign**: From August to the first half of September, Brazil's sugar production increased significantly year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio increased, and the sugar - crushing rhythm accelerated. The cumulative sugar production was slightly lower year - on - year. In September, both the sugar export volume and export price decreased. In the 25/26 crushing season, India has good weather conditions, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the expected export volume is higher than the previous period. Thailand also has good weather conditions, and it is expected to have a high - yield 25/26 crushing season, with an increase in the exportable volume [9]. - **Supply - Domestic**: As of the end of August, the total sugar production in the 24/25 crushing season in China was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of cane sugar was 9.63 million tons, and the production of beet sugar was 1.53 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 89.61% [28]. - **Inventory - Domestic**: As of the end of August, the new industrial inventory of sugar was 1.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 708,700 tons and 336,400 tons respectively [28]. - **Spot - Domestic**: In September, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of September 30, the spot quotation in Liuzhou was 5,845 yuan/ton, in Kunming was 5,810 yuan/ton, and in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton. The spot index price of white sugar was 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [37]. - **Import and Profit - Domestic**: In August, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar and 32,300 tons of syrup and premix. In September, the price of imported sugar declined, the profit for out - of - quota imports was positive, and the imported sugar market had an advantage [36][42]. - **Demand - Domestic**: The consumption side is relatively stable. The production of sugar - containing downstream consumer goods has increased or decreased. In 2025, China's industrial sugar consumption is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons compared to the previous year [44]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - No specific analysis content provided, only the topic of basis spread is mentioned [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, corn prices dropped significantly. Internationally, the estimated production of new-season US corn continued to increase, and export demand was strong, leading to a volatile and slightly downward trend in US corn. Domestically, imported corn auctions continued in September, but the transaction rate was poor. The supply of new-season corn in production areas gradually increased, and the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises was large, putting short-term pressure on domestic corn spot prices. In terms of demand, the inventories of feed and processing enterprises decreased seasonally, and enterprises were cautious about replenishing stocks before the large-scale listing of new grain, continuing to adopt a just-in-time procurement strategy. - As US corn is gradually harvested and enters the market, the futures market is expected to be volatile and weak. With the increasing supply of domestic new grain, corn spot prices will decline, and the short- and medium-term futures market is expected to be volatile and weak. In the long term, the quality of North China corn is poor, and there is support for the price of high-quality corn in the future. Coupled with the expected state reserve purchases stimulated by the large-scale listing of corn, the long-term corn price may first fall and then rise. In terms of operation, short-term unilateral short positions can be taken on the 01 contract, and timely profit-taking should be noted. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT12 corn closed at 416.00 cents per bushel, down 4 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The C2511 corn closed at 2143 yuan per ton, down 48 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 2.19%. [7] Fundamental Analysis International Market - **Balance Sheet**: The planting area was increased by 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres; the yield per acre was decreased by 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels per acre; the production was increased by 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was increased by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was decreased by 7 million bushels to 2.11 billion bushels. [12][20][22] - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, there will be little rainfall and high temperatures in the US corn production areas. [12] - **Growth**: As of the week of September 28, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, the same as the previous week, and higher than 64% in the same period last year. [12][26] - **Harvest**: As of the week of September 28, 2025, the US corn harvest rate was 18%, lower than the market expectation of 20%, up from 11% in the previous week, lower than 20% in the same period last year, and lower than the five-year average of 19%. [12][26] - **Export**: As of the week of September 18, the net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season reached 1.923 million tons, up from 1.232 million tons in the previous week; the net sales of corn for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week. [12][30] Domestic Market - **Feed Enterprises**: As of September 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.01 days, down 0.15 days from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%. [12][34] - **Deep - processing Enterprises**: In September 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 4.5995 million tons of corn, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1201 million tons, a decrease of 19.58%; a year-on-year decrease of 423,100 tons, a decrease of 8.42%. As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. [12][38][42] - **Port Inventory**: As of September 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 729,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week. In Guangdong Port, the domestic trade corn inventory was 333,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 117,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 332,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 877,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week. [12][45] Spread Tracking - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, cotton prices dropped significantly. The September USDA report had a neutral impact on the international market. In the US cotton - growing areas, there was a lack of rainfall. The US cotton had a good rate of high - quality and harvest. As of September 28, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, higher than 31% in the same period last year; the harvest rate was 16%, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The continuous harvest and listing of US cotton put pressure on cotton prices. Also, the US dollar index rebounded after a decline, and US crude oil and grains performed weakly, causing US cotton to fluctuate downward. [5] - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively small. New cotton harvesting has started in some areas, but the listing volume is limited. The downstream demand has improved slightly but remains weak overall. The China Cotton Association shows that this year's domestic cotton output has increased to 7.216 million tons, reaching a new high since 2013. [5] - Due to the drag from the industry and the external environment, US cotton has weakened. The continuous consumption of domestic cotton inventory supports cotton prices. However, the gradual start of new cotton harvesting and the relatively soft downstream demand suppress the short - term decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures. In the medium - to - long - term, Zhengzhou cotton will also perform weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. The recommended operation is to short the 01 contract on rallies. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - As of the close on September 30, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 65.72 cents per pound, down 0.81 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The CF2601 contract closed at 13,215 yuan per ton, down 1,025 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 7.20% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 US Cotton - The US cotton report is neutral. In 2025/26, the planting area increased by 20,000 to 9.3 million acres, the harvest area increased by 10,000 to 7.37 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 1 pound to 861 pounds per acre, the output increased by 10,000 to 13.22 million bales, the total consumption remained flat at 13.7 million bales, and the ending inventory remained flat at 3.6 million bales [14] - The US cotton good - quality rate is acceptable. As of September 28, 2025, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, the same as the previous week and higher than 31% in the same period last year. The harvest rate was 16%, up from 12% the previous week, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 67%, up from 60% the previous week, lower than 71% last year and 69% of the five - year average [17] - US cotton export sales are weak. As of the week of September 18, the export contract volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease compared with the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks. The main buyers are India and Turkey, also including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Italy [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The downstream spinning mill's operation rate has stabilized. As of September 25, the operation load of mainstream spinning enterprises was 66.6%, the same as the previous week. Before the National Day holiday, there was no large - scale stockpiling, new orders slowed down compared with the previous period, market confidence was insufficient, and spinning enterprises continued to maintain a reasonable inventory. The operation rate in the inland was 50% - 60%, and in Xinjiang, it was maintained at about 90% [24] - Downstream spinning enterprises continued to reduce inventory. As of the week of September 25, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning enterprises was equivalent to 27.70 days of storage. As of September 25, the yarn inventory of major spinning enterprises was 30.3 days, a 0.33% decrease from the previous period. This week, the de - stocking of finished yarn slowed down, downstream traders were cautious, and procurement was not active. The inventory of large - scale factories in Xinjiang was about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises was about 15 days [27] - Zhengzhou cotton inventory continued to decline. As of September 26, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.0315 million tons, a decrease of 111,100 tons (a 9.72% decrease) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 505,400 tons, a decrease of 59,200 tons (a 10.49% decrease) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 43,100 tons (a 14.76% decrease) from the previous week. As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.08% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 277,200 tons [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term upward trend of palm oil slows down due to inventory accumulation in Malaysia, but the medium - to - long - term trend continues. In the producing areas, the MPOB reported a 0.73% decrease in September palm oil production, a 7.69% increase in exports, and a 7.2% increase in inventory in Malaysia. From January to August, Indonesia's cumulative exports of crude and refined palm oil increased by 13.56% year - on - year, and the reference price of crude palm oil in October was raised to $963.61 per ton. In July, the consumption of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector was 1.108 billion pounds, and about 9% of Brazil's soybeans were sown. In China, downstream replenishment after the holiday led to good spot sales of soybean oil, but the supply of soybean oil is expected to increase as oil mills resume operations. During the long holiday, 8 new palm oil cargoes were purchased for October - December [7]. - As of September 1, the old - crop soybean inventory in the US decreased by 8% year - on - year, and the biodiesel consumption of soybean oil continued to increase. However, the lack of improvement in US soybean exports to China and the fast - paced sowing in Brazil suppressed the trend of US soybeans. In the short term, CBOT soybeans will continue to fluctuate around 1000. The MPOB report had a negative impact as the decrease in Malaysia's September palm oil production was less than expected, exports increased, and the ending inventory increased more than expected. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased significantly from January to August, the implementation of B40 is progressing well, and the implementation of B50 in the second half of 2026 will drive further growth in palm oil consumption. With strong demand, Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains at a low level. India imported 833,000 tons of palm oil in September, and the absolute volume is still high. After Argentina cancelled the export tax on soy products, which caused a correction in global palm oil prices, China and India made purchases at low prices. It is highly likely that the exports from the producing areas will remain strong in October. Overall, there are both positive and negative factors in the short term in the producing areas, but there is still support in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - In terms of operations, the inventory accumulation in Malaysia and the strong demand in Indonesia are in a game. The upward trend of palm oil at home and abroad is under pressure in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term trend remains unchanged. Ordinary investors should continue to hold long positions in palm oil at low levels and cautiously go long on dips in the medium - to - long - term. Enterprises with low inventory are advised to establish virtual positions by buying call options [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, CBOT soybeans and soybean oil fluctuated weakly, with support levels at 1000 and 50 respectively. Malaysian palm oil fluctuated slightly downward in September, and recovered the previous decline at the beginning of October and approached the previous high again. In China, the trends of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil diverged in September. In early October, soybean oil and palm oil made up for the previous decline [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Recent Policy Review of Soybean - Related Producing Areas - Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on grains and by - products (including soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion. The previous export tariffs on soybeans and derivatives were 26% and 24.5% respectively. Due to the sales reaching the $7 - billion limit on September 24, Argentina resumed the export tax [14]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of some USDA reports. Brazil's antitrust agency CADE voted to suspend the "soybean ban" agreement, which has been followed by grain traders for nearly two decades [15]. 3.2.2 Soybean Harvest and Sowing Progress - As of the week ending September 28, the US soybean harvest progress was 19%, compared with 9% in the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 20%. The good - to - excellent rate was 62%, compared with 61% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year [16]. - As of October 4, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 8.2% according to CONAB, 9.15% according to Patria Agronegocios, and 9% according to AgRural as of October 2. The sowing progress is faster than the same period last year [18]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Quarterly Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop soybeans in the US was 316 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the on - farm inventory was 91.5 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 18%, and the off - farm inventory was 225 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The soybean consumption was 691 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10% [19]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Crushing and Biodiesel Consumption - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, the highest in the same period over the years. The biodiesel consumption of soybean oil continued to increase. In July, 1.108 billion pounds of US soybean oil were consumed in the biodiesel sector [22][24]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Premium - In September, the premium of Brazilian soybeans was in the high - level range of 180 - 210 cents per bushel [25]. 3.2.6 Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory - In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%; imports were 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; and inventory was 2.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2% [27]. 3.2.7 Indonesian Palm Oil Inventory and Export - In July, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.53 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia exported 16.2 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil, a year - on - year increase of 13.56%. In August, the palm oil export volume reached 2.56 million tons [30][34]. - Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026 after completing laboratory tests in August and will conduct road tests. The annual allocation of B50 is 20.1 million kiloliters, higher than 15.6 million kiloliters of B40. The Indonesian government is also considering setting a mandatory standard of 10% for bio - ethanol in gasoline [35]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in October at $963.61 per ton, higher than $954.71 per ton in September. The export tax on crude palm oil in October will remain at $124 per ton, and a 10% special tax is also levied on palm oil [36]. 3.2.8 Indian Palm Oil Import - In September, India imported 833,000 tons of palm oil, a month - on - month decrease of 15.9%, the lowest in the past five months; imported 505,000 tons of soybean oil, a month - on - month increase of 37.3%, the highest since July 2022; imported 272,000 tons of sunflower oil, a month - on - month increase of 5.8%, the highest in eight months; and the total edible oil import was 1.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. India also raised the reference import prices of vegetable oils [37]. 3.2.9 Canadian Rapeseed and Ukrainian Export Policy - Canada's rapeseed production forecast for the 2025/26 season is about 20.028 million tons, with an export forecast of 7 million tons and an ending inventory forecast of 2.5 million tons. Ukraine has approved a tax - exemption mechanism for rapeseed and soybean exports [39]. 3.2.10 Domestic Oilseed Crushing Profit - In September, the domestic situation was better than that in the producing areas. The spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed continued to expand. As of early October, they reached over 1200 and 1000 respectively. There were some new purchase orders in China, and the import profit of palm oil for the October - December shipment was inverted by less than 100 [41]. 3.2.11 Domestic Oil and Oilseed Import - From January to August, China imported 73.312 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 4%; 1.59 million tons of palm oil, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%; 190,000 tons of soybean oil, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%; 1.45 million tons of rapeseed oil, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%; and 2.3306 million tons of rapeseeds, a year - on - year decrease of 31.94% [44]. 3.2.12 Domestic Oil Mill Operation and Inventory - During the National Day holiday in September, the oil mill crushing rate decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The total soybean crushing volume in September was 9.54 million tons, lower than 10.33 million tons in August. As of September 26, the soybean inventory in oil mills was 7.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 370,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14% [50]. - Due to the shortage of rapeseed raw materials, the crushing rate of rapeseed oil mills continued to decline in September, with the weekly crushing volume dropping to a minimum of 20,000 tons and the monthly crushing volume about 170,000 tons, lower than 220,000 tons in August [54]. - As of early October, the soybean oil inventory was stable at around 1.25 million tons, the rapeseed oil inventory decreased rapidly to around 600,000 tons, the palm oil inventory dropped to 580,000 tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons from the previous high, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 2.34 million tons, compared with 1.98 million tons in the same period last year [57]. 3.2.13 Domestic Oil Spot Price and Transaction - In September, the spot prices of oils showed a divergent trend. Soybean oil and palm oil prices first rose and then fell, with an overall decline, while the rapeseed oil price increased. As of September 30, the price of soybean oil was 8348 yuan per ton, a 2.55% decrease from the end of last month; the price of palm oil was 9140 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease from the end of last month; and the price of rapeseed oil was 10544 yuan per ton, a 3.80% increase from the end of last month [62]. - In September, the spot trading volume of soybean oil decreased significantly, while palm oil had a small amount of pre - holiday replenishment. The trading volume of soybean oil was 338,600 tons, compared with 754,400 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of palm oil was 34,592 tons, compared with 19,029 tons in the previous month; and the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 20,000 tons, compared with 3000 tons in the previous month [64]. 3.3 Spread Tracking - No specific content provided in the given text for detailed summary, only the section title "4.1 Basis Spread" is shown [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, geopolitical disturbances and supply surplus will continue to dominate the oil market. With the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine situation, but the extremely low level of crude oil inventories provides bottom support. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate mainly in the range of WTI $60 - $65 per barrel, similar to September. In the medium to long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds caused by geopolitical disturbances. For safety, virtual call options can be used to hedge the risk of upward breakthrough due to sudden geopolitical events. The surplus pattern will further intensify in the next six months, and crude oil is still considered to be in a downward trend. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined its production increase route, once oil prices rise, it will boost OPEC+'s enthusiasm for increasing production, which will always suppress the upside of oil prices [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trend**: In September, the oil market was mainly driven by geopolitical and supply surplus factors, with prices fluctuating between WTI $60 - $65 per barrel. Geopolitical concerns pushed oil prices to challenge the upper pressure level, but they failed to break through effectively. When concerns about surplus intensified, potential geopolitical risks and low inventories supported oil prices above $60. As of September 30, the monthly average settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $63.57 per barrel (-3.21%) and $67.58 per barrel (-3.54%) respectively; the monthly average settlement price of INE SC was 486.19 yuan per barrel (-1.01%) [8]. - **Financial Aspect**: In September, the economic data released by the United States showed that inflation was controllable but employment was weak. At the beginning of the month, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased, and the Fed cut interest rates as scheduled at the September FOMC meeting and sent a dovish signal. As of September 30, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April, reaching 6753.72; the VIX volatility was 16.3, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first implemented and still at a low level this month [13]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 30, the crude oil volatility ETF was 31.53, and the dollar index was 98.849. In September, the drivers of the crude oil market were intertwined with geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fundamental factors. Overall, the crude oil volatility remained at the bottom, lacking a strong driver to break through the oscillation range. The employment data released in September was worse than expected, combined with the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the dollar index to oscillate at a low level [17]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of WTI funds increased, but the speculative net long positions decreased. As of September 23, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 0.19 million contracts month - on - month to 2.65 million contracts, a monthly increase of 7.6%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 0.84 million contracts to 7.65 million contracts, a monthly decrease of 9.9%. There were obvious differences in the market, and the long positions of funds showed characteristics of left - hand side layout. Oil prices generally continued to oscillate within a range, and the trading volume had decreased significantly [20]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 47.8 barrels per day to 2794.8 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 15.4 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were implementing their submitted compensatory production cut plans [25]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 2328 barrels per day, an increase of 19 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Among them, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, but the overall over - production amplitude of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month, perhaps because the organization's requirement to produce according to the quota began to have a certain effect. Seven countries updated their compensatory production cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [29]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 970.9 barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 2.7 barrels per day to 321.8 barrels per day. Sanctions on Iran in late July and the 12 - day war between Israel and Iran in June hindered Iran's subsequent oil production, and the impact of geopolitics has begun to be reflected in its production [33]. - **Russian Supply**: According to OPEC's statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in August was 917.3 barrels per day, an increase of 5.3 barrels per day compared with the previous month; according to the IEA's statistical caliber, its production was 928 barrels per day, an increase of 8 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Under the production increase plan, production is gradually recovering but still at a relatively low level [41]. - **US Production**: As of the week of October 3, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 10 to 422 compared with the previous month, a year - on - year decrease of 57. The high oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter boosted producers' sentiment, and the number of drilling rigs stopped falling. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency enables producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. As of the week of October 3, US crude oil production rebounded, increasing by 12.4 barrels per day to 1362.9 barrels per day compared with the previous week and month, a year - on - year increase of 1.71%. The low oil prices in the first half of the year had suppressed producers' enthusiasm and compressed the increase in US oil production. However, the high oil prices since June seem to have boosted production enthusiasm again, and US crude oil production has continuously refreshed the historical record since last year in September [45][48]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of October 3, the total average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 2089.7 barrels per day, an increase of 55.3 barrels per day compared with the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%. September is a period of seasonal weakening in oil product demand, and the weakening support of demand for oil prices has caused the oscillation center of oil prices to move down. In October, there will be a phased rebound peak in oil product demand [52]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: From September 5 to October 3, US crude oil production increased by 13.4 barrels per day, consumption increased by 0.9 barrels per day, refinery processing volume decreased by 52.1 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. Gasoline production increased by 16.6 barrels per day, and the implied demand decreased by 12.5 barrels per day. Distillate production decreased by 6 barrels per day, and the implied demand increased by 1.7 barrels per day [56]. - **US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Consumption**: As of the four - week period ending on October 3, the average demand for gasoline in the US increased by 10.3 barrels per day to 880.2 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%; the average demand for distillates increased by 24.2 barrels per day to 383 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 1.4 barrels per day to 164 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 6.92% [57]. - **US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of October 8, the gasoline crack spread was $17.65 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.68 per barrel. In September, the crack spread trends were in line with the seasonality of each oil product. Gasoline entered the seasonal off - season as expected, and the spread continued to decline. The demand for distillates was still in the seasonal recovery period, and the crack spread performed better [61]. - **European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of October 8, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.31 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.98 per barrel. In the first half of the third quarter, European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and peak - season restocking demand. The overall oil products were in a relatively warm atmosphere driven by diesel, and the crack spreads continued to rise and remained at a high level in September [65]. - **China's Oil and Refinery Situation**: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 439.1 million tons year - on - year to 6346 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 39.2 million tons year - on - year to 4949.2 million tons (+0.8%). Since the beginning of this year, the escalation of the Middle East situation has raised concerns about supply, leading to a surge in China's oil imports from the Gulf region. At the same time, the recovery of Russian oil supply has been much higher than the same period in previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - **Institutional Forecasts for Demand Growth**: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth. OPEC maintained its previous forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 90 barrels per day (↑), 74 barrels per day (↑), and 130 barrels per day (-) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 128 barrels per day, 70 barrels per day, and 140 barrels per day respectively [73]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: In September, US commercial crude oil inventories first decreased and then increased. As of October 3, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.26 million barrels compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 0.59%; SPR inventories increased by 285,000 barrels to 406.99 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 763,000 barrels to 22.704 million barrels [74]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending on October 3, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 71.3 barrels per day to 281.3 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 52.1 barrels per day to 1629.7 barrels per day compared with the end of the previous month, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded by 1 percentage point to 92.4% last week [78]. - **WTI Monthly Spread**: The WTI monthly spread generally maintained a backwardation structure. As of September 30, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.01 per barrel. The monthly spread indicator continued to weaken. As the demand for refined oil products in the US gradually peaks, the support of the peak season for oil prices begins to weaken. At the same time, with OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may remain at a low level and rebound periodically during geopolitical disturbances [81]. - **Brent Monthly Spread**: The Brent monthly spread still maintained a backwardation structure. As of September 30, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.99 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.88 per barrel. Similar to the WTI monthly spread, the Brent monthly spread also showed a contango pattern but was relatively stronger. This is because the sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict have made the supply outlook in the European region more tense [84]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and the demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, which continued to increase compared with the previous month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast in this period, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, it is expected that the pressure of supply surplus will be greater this year [88]. - **Term Structure**: The US fundamental data indicates that the off - season has arrived, and the term structure continues to flatten. However, due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent still has a tight expectation, and the strong crack spread can support a more robust contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure. However, as the peak - season demand gradually weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report in September showed higher-than-expected yield, production, and inventory estimates for US soybeans, with a neutral to bearish impact. The overall dry and rainy conditions in the US soybean-producing areas were unfavorable for the growth of late-sown soybeans but beneficial for the harvest of early-sown soybeans. The US soybean harvest continued to progress, but US soybean exports remained weak. The Conab report in Brazil indicated that the estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 177.67 million tons. Multiple bearish factors pressured US soybeans to fluctuate lower. In China, the sufficient arrival of soybeans in September supported domestic supply, and the oil mill operating rate remained at a high level. Meanwhile, the recent downstream replenishment was sluggish, resulting in a loose supply and demand situation for soybean meal in the spot market, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills continued to accumulate. The decline in US soybeans led to a weak cost of imported soybeans. Coupled with the large-scale procurement of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal in China in September, the gap in China's soybean meal for the far month decreased, and the soybean meal price fluctuated lower. It is still necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US tariff negotiation situation in the future. China's soybean meal is still bearish, but the short-term decline may be limited, and the Dalian soybean meal will continue the bottoming trend. The strategy is to wait and see temporarily [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1000.75 cents per bushel, down 52.25 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.96%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan per ton, down 127 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.16% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - The US soybean balance sheet is neutral to bearish, with the planting area increased by 200,000 to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 0.1 to 53.5 bushels per acre, the production increased by 9 million to 4.301 billion bushels, the crush increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the exports decreased by 20 million to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased by 10 million to 300 million bushels [10][17]. - The US soybean-producing areas are experiencing high temperatures and little rain. In the next two weeks, there will be a lack of rainfall and high temperatures in the US soybean-producing areas. As of October 3, about 37% of the US soybean-producing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year. As of the week of September 28, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared with 9% in the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 20%. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared with 61% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year [10][20]. - US soybean exports are relatively low. As of the week of September 18, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 724,000 tons, compared with 923,000 tons in the previous week. The net sales of soybeans for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, compared with 2,000 tons in the previous week [10][25]. - Brazilian soybean premiums are oscillating at high levels. The estimated exports of Brazilian soybeans in October are 7.12 million tons, an increase of 2.69 million tons year-on-year. As the Brazilian soybean inventory decreases, the near-month soybean premiums in Brazil are oscillating at high levels [10][30]. - **Supply** - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 609,000 tons from July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year-on-year [10][33]. - **Demand** - In September, the soybean meal crush decreased to 9.359 million tons, a decrease of 18.37% month-on-month and an increase of 789,100 tons or 9.21% year-on-year. The soybean meal transactions decreased to 3.1313 million tons, a decrease of 35.44%, and the pick-up increased to 4.4047 million tons, an increase of 9.97% [10][40]. - **Inventory** - In the 39th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills across the country increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, an increase of 252,500 tons or 3.63% from the previous week and an increase of 905,100 tons or 14.38% year-on-year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons or 4.86% from the previous week and a decrease of 37,300 tons or 3.04% year-on-year [10][45]. 3.3 Spread Tracking - The report mentions the basis and spreads of soybean meal, including the regional basis of soybean meal (Jiangsu), the oil-meal ratio, the 1-5 spread of soybean meal, and the soybean meal-rapeseed meal spread, but specific data and analysis are not provided [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the futures market showed weak performance [4]. - Blast furnace operations first decreased and then increased, while electric furnace production continued to decline [4]. - The de - stocking speed of building materials was slow, and the inventory of plates accumulated more than expected [4]. - The demand for building materials increased month - on - month, while the domestic demand for plates was weak and the external demand was strong [4]. - Both finished products and raw materials prices fell, leading to a continued contraction of profits [4]. - The basis widened significantly, and all long - short arbitrage positions were closed [4]. - In September, blast furnace operations first decreased and then increased, pig iron production declined, and electric furnace production decreased significantly. Overall supply tightened month - on - month. In terms of varieties, electric furnace production decreased significantly, rebar production declined, and hot - rolled coil production increased. In terms of demand, the demand for rebar increased month - on - month, while the manufacturing industry actively reduced raw material inventories, and the domestic demand for plates remained weak. In terms of inventory, the de - stocking speed of building materials was slow, and the inventory of plates accumulated more than expected. Currently, the supply of the black metals sector is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to gradually slow down. Some short positions at low prices in the futures market have stopped profiting, showing obvious resistance to decline. In terms of strategies, it was previously suggested to reduce short positions and take profits before the holiday, wait for short - selling opportunities in the second half of the month, and pay attention to the rebound space brought by policy expectations [4]. Iron Ore - Spot ore prices decreased slightly, and the futures market showed a volatile trend [4]. - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources also declined [4]. - Pig iron production declined, but it may remain at a high level in the future [4]. - Port inventories increased significantly, and the pre - holiday restocking efforts were large [4]. - Shipping prices both increased [4]. - There was no trading space for the futures price spread, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the rebar - to - iron ore ratio for the 01 contract [4]. - In September, global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources also decreased. Overall supply tightened. In terms of demand, blast furnace operations at steel mills declined in September, and pig iron production first decreased and then increased. Currently, the profits of some blast furnace varieties are still good, and the short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient. There may be maintenance pressure in the later period of the fourth quarter. In terms of inventory, port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories increased significantly. Overall, in September, both supply and demand were weak, and the fundamentals were poor. The demand side will remain stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the incremental supply from Simandou. A short - selling strategy should be maintained for single - sided trading, and attention should be paid to the operation opportunity of shorting rebar and going long on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In September, rebar continued to decline after falling in August. The 01 contract of rebar futures fell 88 to 3072, and the price of hot - rolled coil futures fell 93 to 3253. In the spot market, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3230 (down 20), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3310 (down 60). The spot prices of finished products decreased synchronously in September, but the spot prices were stronger than the futures prices. As the peak season approached, the improved demand for building materials supported the relatively strong performance of spot prices [11]. 1.2 Supply - The production of blast furnaces first decreased and then increased, and the supply of electric furnaces tightened. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in China was 84.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The daily average pig iron production was 242.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34 tons. In September, blast furnace production first decreased and then increased, reaching a four - month high in operating rate. Due to the near - full production of blast furnaces, the room for production increase was limited, and the pig iron production in September still hovered around 240 tons [14]. - The short - process supply of rebar continued to decline, and the long - process production also declined, but it was relatively stable. As of the end of September, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China was 50.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.12 percentage points. Although the demand for building steel increased, the increase was late. Against the background of the weakening of finished product prices throughout the month, combined with the tight supply of scrap steel, the profits of electric furnaces continued to narrow, forcing steel mills to reduce production, and the short - process operating rate continued to decline [20]. - In September, the weekly production of national building steel decreased slightly. As of September 26, the weekly production of rebar was 206.46 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1 ton. The average weekly production of hot - rolled coils in September was 322 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons. The supply increased slightly, mainly due to the profit difference. The profit of building materials remained low, while the profit of hot - rolled coils was relatively high, and the supply increased more significantly [24]. 1.3 Demand - In terms of building materials demand, in September, the market trading volume improved month - on - month, and the average daily trading volume of traders increased slightly by 4.3% compared with the previous month, but the year - on - year decline was still around 16.4%. As of the third week of September, the national cement delivery volume was 2.5905 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.32%. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.56 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.02%. Overall, the demand for building materials increased month - on - month in September, but the year - on - year decline was still obvious [27]. - In September, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August. The manufacturing industry showed a continuous improvement trend. The production side remained resilient and showed a moderate expansion. The external demand for hot - rolled coils increased as the domestic - foreign price difference widened again due to the weak domestic prices. However, although the terminal production was good, new orders were still weak, and the intention to actively reduce raw material inventories remained unchanged. The terminal procurement profit was weak, resulting in a slow release of hot - rolled coil demand. Coupled with the withdrawal of subsidies for automobiles and home appliances, the demand for plates was expected to decline significantly month - on - month [30]. 1.4 Profit - Since September, the prices of raw materials showed a slight downward trend, but the prices of finished products weakened more significantly, leading to a further weakening of blast furnace profits. The price of iron ore decreased by 1 yuan/ton month - on - month, the price of coke remained unchanged month - on - month, the price of scrap steel decreased by 10 yuan month - on - month, and the average price of rebar decreased by 65 yuan/ton month - on - month. The profitability of blast furnace steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month. In the short - process sector, the decline in scrap steel prices was also lower than that of finished products, and the profits of electric furnaces shrank significantly. As of the 30th, according to research data, 25.62% of steel mills had small profits, 49.59% of steel mills broke even, and 24.79% of steel mills suffered losses [35]. 1.5 Inventory - As of September 26, the social inventory of rebar was 4.7189 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 181,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.8456 million tons. The de - stocking of rebar in September was later than in previous years, mainly due to the late start of demand and the impact of typhoons in the South China region, which led to weak market purchasing power [39]. - As of September 25, the national social inventory of hot - rolled coils was 2.988 million tons, and the month - on - month increase widened to 130,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 171,800 tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils increased significantly in September, partly due to the increase in supply month - on - month and the weak start of demand, resulting in a more - than - seasonal accumulation of inventory [42]. 1.6 Basis - In August, the basis of rebar showed a volatile widening trend. At the end of September, the basis was 90, and on September 30, it was 138, a monthly increase of 48. For hot - rolled coils, the basis widened from 24 to 57. Currently, the discount of the two varieties was relatively neutral. Considering the weakening of spot prices, the room for further widening of the basis was limited [45]. 1.7 Inter - period Spread - In September, the inversion of the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 48 to - 76. The main reasons for the failure to repair the inversion were the short - term pressure of warehouse receipts and the slower - than - expected recovery of demand. The expectation for the far - month contract was stronger than that for the near - month contract [49]. 1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market narrowed significantly, from 256 to 181, and the spot spread narrowed from 120 to 100. The spread on both the futures and spot markets contracted synchronously. In September, the demand for building materials increased month - on - month, resulting in a narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Considering the significant weakening of the demand for building steel in the later period of October, attention should be paid to the opportunity for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar to widen [52]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In September, the price of iron ore showed a trend of rising first and then falling. After pre - trading the pre - holiday restocking, the futures market began to correct, showing a volatile continuation trend. The 01 contract fell 7 to 780.5, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 2 to 787 yuan/ton [57]. 2.2 Supply - Global shipments of iron ore decreased month - on - month in September, and the overall supply tightened. The daily average shipment volume was 4.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 60,000 tons. The daily average shipment from Australia increased by 220,000 tons month - on - month and 10,000 tons year - on - year, while the daily average shipment from Brazil decreased by 220,000 tons month - on - month and 100,000 tons year - on - year [60]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 19.419 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.52 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 7.514 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 730,000 tons. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global shipments of iron ore increased by 8.83 million tons year - on - year. Among them, the cumulative shipments from Brazil increased by 11.05 million tons year - on - year, the cumulative shipments from Australia increased by 5.47 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative shipments from non - mainstream regions decreased by 7.68 million tons year - on - year [63]. - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in September decreased month - on - month, but it was at a high level in the same period in the past three years. The daily average arrival volume was 3.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 117,000 tons. The increase in resources mainly came from Australia, and the arrival from Brazil decreased month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the pre - unloading volume at the two ports of the 47 ports shrank from 17.999 million tons at the beginning of September to 13.758 million tons. The arrival of resources decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [66]. 2.3 Demand - In September, the blast furnace operating rate first decreased and then increased, and the overall demand decreased slightly. According to Mysteel statistics, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mill samples in September decreased by 23,000 tons month - on - month to 238,200 tons/day, and the cumulative year - on - year increase for the whole year was 88,000 tons [69]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 1.04 million tons/day, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The spot trading volume at ports increased significantly, mainly due to the centralized pre - holiday restocking by steel mills [73]. 2.4 Inventory - In September, the inventory of iron ore at 47 ports in China showed an increasing trend. As of now, the total inventory of iron ore at 47 ports was 145.51 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons from the end of last month, a decrease of 10.6 million tons compared with the beginning of this year, and 1 million tons lower than the inventory in the same period last year. The increase in port inventory was mainly affected by the decline in pig iron production [76]. - As of September 29, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 97.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.292 million tons. Steel mills started restocking earlier and with a larger scale before the holiday, resulting in a significant increase in inventory [79]. 2.5 Shipping - In September, the shipping prices from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Brazil to Qingdao both increased slightly. The price from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.37 US dollars/ton, and the price from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 1.27 US dollars/ton. The overall fluctuations were not large [82]. 2.6 Spread - In September, the basis of iron ore showed a volatile widening trend. The 01 contract was at a discount of 23, and the current basis was relatively low. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for it to widen. The 1 - 5 spread narrowed from 24 to 19.5. Currently, the spread was at a medium level and still had no obvious trading value [85]. - In September, the rebar - to - iron ore ratio closed at 3.92, basically unchanged from the previous month. The futures market showed a synchronous trend of rising first and then falling, with no obvious overall change. The coke - to - iron ore ratio increased slightly to 2.12, mainly due to the relatively strong price of coking coal in September and the low inventory of coke. Currently, attention should be paid to the opportunity for the rebar - to - iron ore ratio to narrow in the off - season, and the direction of the coke - to - iron ore ratio was not clear [88]. Strategy Recommendation - For single - sided trading of iron ore, pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. - Continue to pay attention to the operation opportunity of shorting rebar 01 and going long on iron ore 01 for arbitrage. - In the spot - futures market, it is recommended that industrial customers close all previous long - short arbitrage positions. If there is inventory pressure, actively pay attention to the opportunity to establish short positions on the futures market during the rebound in October for hedging [5].