Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies and the results of US-Iran negotiations are uncertain, which intensifies market volatility. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 82.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 17.3%. [6] - On the supply side, Iran's nuclear negotiations with the US are "difficult but productive," and OPEC plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, almost offsetting the compensatory production cuts of 431,000 barrels per day by seven countries. [6] - On the demand side, the US and the UK have reached a trade framework agreement, and China and the US are holding talks, which may ease tariff conflicts and boost market sentiment. [6] - In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and recover, but in the medium term, the center of gravity may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities before the June OPEC meeting and focus on the WTI range of $55 - $65 per barrel. [6] Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From May 5 - 9, international oil prices rebounded and recovered. As of May 9, WTI settled at $61.02 per barrel (+4.68%), Brent at $63.91 per barrel (+4.27%), and INE SC at 493.9 yuan per barrel (+2.34%). [9] - The week-on-week price changes and spreads of various crude oil varieties and arbitrage indicators are detailed in the report, including price increases for WTI, Brent, and Oman, and decreases for SC. [12] 1.2 Financial Aspects - The tension in the trade war has eased, but there is no further positive progress. The S&P 500 index is oscillating within a range, and the VIX volatility has further slowed down. However, due to potential changes in some US policies, financial market volatility may not continue to decline. [14] 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - As of May 9, the crude oil ETF volatility was 39.82, and the US dollar index was 100.42. After the release of the negative impact of OPEC+ production increases before May Day, the volatility in the crude oil market has decreased. The market is currently focused on the impact of US tariff policies and geopolitics on oil prices, and the US dollar index is under pressure. [18] 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of May 6, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 11,500 contracts to 128,600 contracts, a weekly decline of 8.2%. The speculative net long positions increased by 9,700 contracts to 37,200 contracts, a weekly increase of 26%. [21] 2. Crude Oil Supply Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In March, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day. Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria had significant production cuts, while Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait had slight increases. [27] - According to the IEA's statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in March was 21.94 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant overproduction. [31] - In March, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 40,000 barrels per day to 8.964 million barrels per day, and Iran's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.335 million barrels per day. [34] 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistics, Russia's crude oil production in March was 8.963 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. According to the IEA, it was 9.07 million barrels per day, also a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. In March, Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports totaled 7.38 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. [44] 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of May 2, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 479, a decrease of 4 from the previous week and 20 from the same period last year. The efficiency of drilling and oil wells has improved, allowing producers to maintain record production while controlling capital expenditures. [48] - As of the week of May 2, US crude oil production decreased to 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease of 98,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%. [52] 3. Crude Oil Demand Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 19.872 million barrels per day, an increase of 718,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. [56] - The gasoline crack spread in the US has stabilized and rebounded, while the heating oil crack spread has been relatively weak. As of May 9, the gasoline crack spread was $27.53 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $25.77 per barrel. [65] 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of May 9, the ICE diesel crack spread was $18.18 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $22.88 per barrel. The impact of cold weather on oil product demand has weakened, and the crack spreads of ICE diesel and heating oil are expected to decline slightly in the second quarter. [69] 3.3 Chinese Oil Product and Refinery Situation - In March, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 718,000 tons year-on-year to 63.06 million tons (-1.13%), and imports increased by 2.36 million tons year-on-year to 51.41 million tons (4.81%). Since March, state-owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased their purchases from the Middle East, West Africa, and South America. [73] 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - In April, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rates for this year would be 900,000 barrels per day (down), 726,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (down), respectively. For next year, the growth rates are expected to be 1 million barrels per day, 692,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day. [78] 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of May 2, the EIA's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. The SPR inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.12 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels to 24.96 million barrels. [79] - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the net imports of US crude oil increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day. The refinery processing volume increased by 325,000 barrels per day to 15.889 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 89%. [81] - As of May 9, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.71 per barrel. The Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.48 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.23 per barrel. Both WTI and Brent spreads showed signs of decline due to concerns about OPEC+ production increases. [84][87] 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Analysis 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In April, the EIA predicted that the global oil supply would be 104.1 million barrels per day this year, and the demand would be 103.64 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 460,000 barrels. The IEA predicted that the supply would be 104.2 million barrels per day and the demand would be 103.5 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 700,000 barrels. [91] 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the crude oil market has oscillated upwards amidst uncertainties. The increase in OPEC production may continue until June, and the compensatory production cut plan may not be implemented, weakening the fundamental support. The term structure may change in the short term. [95]

产区上量偏少支撑现货，盘面大幅走高 玉米周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 CBOT07玉米 C2507玉米 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies are gradually showing their impact, which may accelerate the recession process. The Fed is still reluctant to cut interest rates, and its expected management direction is unclear, causing market concerns that the Fed will only act after a recession occurs, putting pressure on copper prices from a valuation perspective. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. - The main logic at the industrial level is whether smelting production cuts actually occur. Under the triple pressure of eroded profits, tight ore supply, and poor copper price performance, smelting difficulties are more severe than last year. Prices may fall to eliminate some production capacity, but copper prices will regain price elasticity after supply contraction [5][82]. - Before the holiday, driven by strong domestic buying sentiment, copper prices filled some gaps and maintained a relatively strong oscillating trend. However, due to continuous capital outflows from the market, the rebound space may be limited, with resistance seen at the 77,500 yuan level. After the holiday, copper prices may decline. Attention should be paid to changes in the US economy. The macro - logic has shifted, and recession trading has inertia, but there is still room for short - to medium - term games. The main price range after the holiday is expected to be between 70,000 and 77,000 yuan. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the price decline after the US economy reaches an inflection point [5][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - **PMI of Major Economies**: In April, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded. The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7%, up 0.1% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3% to 48%, and France's decreased by 0.3% to 48.2%. The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but the service level dropped 3 percentage points to 51.4%. In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the seasonal rebound trend. However, external demand dragged down the overall recovery, and the second quarter will face the pressure of seasonal off - peak and the withdrawal of macro - policies [12]. - **Economic Situation and Copper Price Impact**: The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies may accelerate the recession process. The Fed's unclear interest - rate policy makes the market worried, putting pressure on copper prices. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In 2024, the global copper concentrate market was in surplus. In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In February 2025, global copper mine production was 1.803 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29%, and the refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. China's copper concentrate imports also increased. In December 2024, imports were 2.522 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, cumulative imports were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In March 2025, imports were 2.394 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to March were 7.108 million tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous year [21][24]. - **TC (Treatment and Refining Charges)**: As of April 25, the average domestic copper concentrate TC was - 42.52 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 7.81 US dollars from the previous week. The spot TC for scattered orders became negative and the situation worsened, but copper concentrate port inventories began to increase to 750,000 tons [28]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In March 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production increased by 63,900 tons month - on - month, a 6.04% increase, and a 12.27% year - on - year increase. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 274,500 tons, a 9.4% increase. In April, some smelters had maintenance plans, but the overall production remained stable through adjustments in raw material input [33]. - **Refined Copper Import and Export**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%, and exported 457,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. From January to March 2025, China imported 842,600 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.06%, and exported 117,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 156.25% [39]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of scrap copper, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The annual cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import was 382,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.86% [42]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The average spread between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 993 yuan per ton, up 489 yuan month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises improved marginally, and the weekly sample finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises was 2,600 tons, up 850 tons month - on - month. After the tax - related issues are resolved, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Consumption - end Demand**: - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power infrastructure investment increased by 12.14% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 15.26% year - on - year. From January to March 2025, power infrastructure investment decreased by 2.5% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year [50]. - **Air - conditioner Production**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the cumulative production from January to December was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to March 2025, the air - conditioner production was 74.4576 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [55]. - **Automobile Production**: In March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. From January to March, automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 3.182 million and 3.075 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 50.4% and 47.1% [57]. - **Real - estate Market**: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In March 2025, the real - estate completion area was 131 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 24.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 452,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 203,500 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 54,800 tons to 116,800 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,850 tons to 132,000 tons. As of April 24, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 88,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous week [62]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of April 22, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,765 lots, an increase of 5,288 lots week - on - week. Non - commercial long positions were 78,607 lots, up 3,145 lots week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 53,842 lots, down 2,143 lots week - on - week. Although the non - commercial long position reached a four - month low, it remained in a net - long state [66]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of April 25, the LME copper spot discount was 16.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot premium and discount fluctuated. In China, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The domestic spot premium is expected to rise above 200 yuan per ton before the May Day holiday [76]. - **Basis**: As of April 25, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 840 yuan per ton [78].

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

原油：多空交织反复，油价震荡反弹 正信期货原油周报 20250428 研究员：付馨苇 从业资格编号：F03101045 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国关税政策仍存不确定性，美伊谈判结果的反复也加剧市场波动。据CME"美联储观察" ：美联储5月 维持当前利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为8.3%。美联储6月维持当前利率不变的概率为37.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为57.8%，降息50个基点的概率为4.9%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，美国对伊朗制裁措施还未完全落地，关注美伊暂定于5月3日举行的高级别会议，其结果将决定 制裁力度。欧佩克方面，欧佩克及其减产同盟国希望考虑在6月份继续加快石油产量增长，虽有成员国根据前期超产 情况提交补偿计划，但哈萨克斯坦称产油国利益大于同盟国利益，补偿减产或难落地，关注5月5日欧佩克会议。 Ø 需求端：美国油品即将进入季节性旺季，炼化端因提前备货开工率回升，美汽油裂解价差季 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, PTA is expected to continue its cost - driven market. The supply is expected to shrink due to multiple PTA device overhauls next week, and the polyester load remains high, maintaining a tight balance in supply and demand. However, trade disputes have led to a continuous decline in the terminal weaving load, increasing the negative feedback and the expectation of polyester production cuts [6]. - In the short - term, ethylene glycol is expected to continue its oscillating pattern. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped to around 60%, and the polyester operating rate remains high. There was inventory reduction in April from a marginal supply - demand perspective. But macro - uncertain factors affect the market, and the negative feedback from the terminal weaving industry is intensifying, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: Terminal demand was sluggish, but the negative impact of the new US tariff policy weakened significantly. Crude oil prices rose, and PX prices increased slightly. As of April 25, the closing price of Asian PX was $752/ton CFR China, up $12/ton from April 17 [16]. - **PX Supply**: The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 77.17%, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week. The PX supply was at a low level under the overhaul process [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of April 25, the PX - naphtha spread was $170.3/ton, down $2/ton from April 17. The additional tariffs had a significant impact on the terminal textile and clothing industry, and the PX processing fee continued to decline during the week [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the restart of previously overhauled devices, domestic supply increased. The polyester end was operating at a high load, and the supply - demand remained in a tight pattern. At the beginning of the week, the terminal performance was poor, polyester sales were mediocre, and the market center weakened. In the middle of the week, there was an expectation of easing in the tariff dispute, the commodity sentiment recovered, and the PTA spot center strengthened. As of April 18, the PTA spot price was 4,428 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2505 + 18 or 09 + 43 [26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate reached 80.04%, a 3.30% increase from the previous week. Yisheng Dahua and Fujian Baihong restarted as scheduled, and other devices remained stable, resulting in a significant increase in domestic capacity utilization. In April, there were overhaul plans for Yisheng Hainan, Baihong, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Jiayuan Energy, and there were restart plans for Yisheng Dahua, Baihong, and Taihua within the month. There was an expectation of capacity utilization recovery for domestic PTA in April [31]. - **Processing Fee**: Due to the increase in domestic supply and the spread of pessimism on the demand side, the PTA processing fee decreased significantly compared to the previous period. The average PTA processing fee was 281 yuan/ton, a 11.8% decrease. Next week, the supply will shrink significantly, but the terminal and downstream are pessimistic, and the probability of polyester load reduction is high. The PTA processing fee may remain at a low level [34]. - **Inventory Expectation**: In April, some PTA devices had overhaul plans, and there would be no new PTA device put into production. Downstream polyester new devices were continuously being put into production, and the demand for polyester bottle chips increased during the peak season for soft drinks in the second quarter. There was still an expectation of inventory reduction in April [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Fluctuation**: After briefly breaking through the support level of 4,200 yuan in Zhangjiagang, bargain - hunting buyers entered the market, and ethylene glycol stabilized and rebounded. However, due to the unstable external economic environment, the upward momentum was insufficient, and the fluctuation of ethylene glycol narrowed. As of April 25, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,184 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,380 yuan/ton [40]. - **Production**: The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.93%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.01%, a 2.06% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 53.17%, a 3.53% increase. In April, the downstream and terminal were in the consumption peak season, and there was still an expectation of further increase in the operating rates of polyester and weaving. With multiple ethylene glycol devices having overhaul plans, there was an expectation of inventory reduction in the ethylene glycol supply - demand structure [45]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China was 68.77 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons from April 21 and a decrease of 1.9 tons from April 17. The inventory increased due to the slowdown in port shipments and relatively stable arrivals this week. As of April 30, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 24.82 tons, including 9.92 tons in Zhangjiagang, 7.7 tons in Taicang, 6 tons in Ningbo, and 1.2 tons in Jiangyin [48]. - **Production Profit**: With ethylene glycol operating weakly, the production profits of various processes declined. The profit of naphtha - based production was - $121.49/ton, a decrease of $24.47/ton from the previous week, and the sample profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 269.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.25 yuan/ton from the previous week [52]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.75%, a 0.67% increase from the previous week. There were both device overhauls and restarts during the week. Although the Sanfangxiang device was overhauled and Sheng Hong reduced production, devices such as Wankai, Xingbang, and Yihua restarted, and Jingwei increased its load. The overall supply increase was slightly higher than the decrease, resulting in a slight increase in weekly production and capacity utilization [55]. - **Polyester Production**: In April, there were both overhauls and restarts within the month, and there was an expectation of new device commissioning. It was expected that the monthly polyester production would decline slightly [56]. - **Product Inventory**: This week, downstream rigid - demand replenishment led to a surge in polyester sales, and the inventory of polyester products decreased [62]. - **Polyester Cash Flow**: Downstream textile enterprises mostly planned to shut down for overhauls during the May Day holiday, and the terminal outlook was pessimistic. Polyester factories mainly promoted sales with price concessions [65]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of April 24, the operating load of the weaving industry was 55.15%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.65 days, a decrease of 0.30 days from the previous week. The recent US reciprocal tariff policy has dragged down market demand, and the demand in the textile and clothing industry has been continuously poor. Factories mainly produced based on actual orders, and raw material procurement was more cautious due to poor orders, with purchases made as needed [70]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost End**: Terminal demand was sluggish, but the negative impact of the new US tariff policy weakened significantly. Crude oil prices rose, and PX prices increased slightly [72]. - **Supply End**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate reached 80.04%, a 3.30% increase from the previous week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.93%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week [72]. - **Demand End**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.75%, a 0.67% increase from the previous week. As of April 24, the operating load of the weaving industry was 55.15%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.65 days, a decrease of 0.30 days from the previous week [72]. - **Inventory**: There was an expectation of supply reduction for PTA, and the polyester load remained high, maintaining a tight balance in supply and demand. As of April 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China was 68.77 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons from April 21 and a decrease of 1.9 tons from April 17 [72].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Zhengxin Futures Palm Oil Weekly Report 20250428 - **Analyst**: Zhang Cuiping - **Investment Consulting License Number**: Z0016574 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Long holidays approaching lead to capital risk - aversion, making it difficult for oils and fats to rebound further. Last week, the price centers of domestic and international oils and fats and oilseeds moved up overall. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3 - 15% in the first 25 days of April, and production increased by 9 - 20% in the first 20 days. Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. As of April 20, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%. In China, the spot demand for soybean oil is good, and the inventory has dropped to a low level of around 650,000 tons; there are purchases for both near - and far - term contracts of palm oil, and the inventory has stopped decreasing; the direct import level of rapeseed oil is high, and the inventory remains at a high level of over 800,000 tons. [7] - The sowing of new - season US soybeans has begun with a good initial progress, and weather - related trading has not started yet. However, the recovery of US biodiesel consumption and the improved outlook have driven the CBOT soybean price back above 1050. There is a lack of news about Indonesia's B40. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has ended an eight - month inversion, and recent purchases by China and India have continued to improve Malaysia's palm oil exports. But Malaysia's palm oil production in April continued the significant increase trend in March, and the producer quotes have dropped significantly. The producing areas have entered the production - increasing cycle, and the inventory has reached an inflection point, putting pressure on BMD crude palm oil. [7] - In terms of operation, as the tariff sentiment is released, the three major oils and fats have further recovered their previous declines. The palm oil is generally slightly weaker than soybean and rapeseed oils both at home and abroad. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of expanding the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil should be maintained. And as the May Day holiday approaches, attention should be paid to the short - term volatility risks caused by capital outflows. [8] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Main Views - Palm oil: With the approaching long holiday, capital is seeking safety, and it is difficult for oils and fats to rebound further. The prices of domestic and international oils and fats and oilseeds moved up last week. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased in April, and Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. In China, the inventory of soybean oil has decreased, the inventory of palm oil has stopped decreasing, and the inventory of rapeseed oil remains high. [7] - Strategy: The sowing of new - season US soybeans has started, and the CBOT soybean price has rebounded. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has ended the inversion, and Malaysia's palm oil exports have improved, but production has increased significantly. The producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle, and the inventory has reached an inflection point, putting pressure on BMD crude palm oil. The long - term strategy is to expand the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and pay attention to short - term volatility risks during the holiday. [7][8] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybean oil reached a new high in nearly one and a half years, the prices of CBOT soybeans and China's three major oils and fats moved up, while Malaysia's palm oil was under pressure and tested the support level of 4000. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The global tariff trading sentiment has further cooled down. [12] - **US Soybeans**: As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, slightly faster than expected. The trading related to weather has not started yet. The consumption outlook of biodiesel is promising, and both the soybean crushing volume and biodiesel consumption in the US increased in March. [12][13] - **Palm Oil**: From April 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3 - 14%, and production increased by 7 - 20% from April 1 - 20. Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has recovered, and China and India's purchases have increased. SEA estimates that India's palm oil imports from May to September will be 500,000, 0, 700,000, 700,000, and 700,000 tons respectively. [12] - **Import and Crushing**: From January to March 2025, China's cumulative imports of soybeans were 17.109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; palm oil imports were 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%; rapeseed oil imports were 730,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%; and rapeseed imports were 898,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. The crushing rates of soybeans and rapeseed are low, the soybean inventory in oil mills has reached a nearly three - year high, and the rapeseed inventory is 300,000 - 350,000 tons. [12] - **Inventory**: As of mid - April 2025, the soybean oil inventory has decreased to 650,000 tons, the palm oil inventory has stopped decreasing at 350,000 - 360,000 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory remains above 800,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils and fats is 1.73 million tons, compared with 1.68 million tons in the same period in 2024. [12][41] - **Spot**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats increased. As of April 25, the price of soybean oil was 8,407 yuan/ton, a 4.24% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,288 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase; and the price of rapeseed oil was 9,586 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase. [12][45] - **Demand**: As the prices recovered from previous declines, the spot trading volume of oils and fats decreased significantly last week. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 86,700 tons, compared with 282,300 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 959 tons, compared with 766 tons in the previous week; and the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, the same as in the previous week. [12][48] 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text.

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250428 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Zinc Inter - period Arbitrage**: With the continuous and rapid increase in TC, smelters have turned profitable. Affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to loose. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance tends to move towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in zinc inter - period positive arbitrage on a dip - rolling basis [4]. - **Aluminum - Zinc Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The output of refined zinc in China has marginally recovered, and the newly commissioned zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental production throughout the year. Due to capacity restrictions in China, the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on a dip - rolling basis [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper increased by 1.87% from $9,188.5 to $9,360; LME aluminum rose by 3.04% from $2,365.5 to $2,437.5; LME zinc climbed by 2.66% from $2,577 to $2,645.5; LME lead advanced by 1.20% from $1,922 to $1,945; LME nickel decreased by 0.84% from $15,622 to $15,490; LME tin went up by 4.35% from $30,643 to $31,975. SHFE copper increased by 2.19% from 75,780 to 77,440; SHFE aluminum rose by 1.96% from 19,645 to 20,030; SHFE zinc climbed by 3.46% from 21,990 to 22,750; SHFE lead advanced by 1.16% from 16,750 to 16,945; SHFE nickel decreased by 0.18% from 126,030 to 125,800; SHFE tin went up by 1.97% from 257,770 to 262,840 [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years, with a significant increase in aluminum's unilateral open interest recently. This week, copper's unilateral open interest increased by 1.4% month - on - month, while those of aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin decreased by 3.9%, 8.2%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively. Except for aluminum, the main non - ferrous metals experienced net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 4.66% to 203,450; LME aluminum inventory dropped by 2.90% to 421,575; LME zinc inventory declined by 7.83% to 180,050; LME lead inventory decreased by 2.68% to 274,075; LME nickel inventory fell by 1.01% to 202,470; LME tin inventory decreased by 1.40% to 2,810 [22]. - **Profit**: Copper smelters' losses widened to 2,651 yuan/ton as processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,069 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,031 yuan/ton. Zinc's domestic processing fee remained flat, and the theoretical smelting profit from domestic ore was 936 yuan/ton [40]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: The copper basis was 840, with a basis premium rate of 1.08%, a one - year basis quantile of 96.28%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.54%. The aluminum basis was 70, with a basis premium rate of 0.35%, a one - year basis quantile of 87.19%, and a three - year basis quantile of 70.04%. The zinc basis was 490, with a basis premium rate of 2.15%, a one - year basis quantile of 85.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.26%. The lead basis was 175, with a basis premium rate of 1.03%, a one - year basis quantile of 81.40%, and a three - year basis quantile of 90.98%. The nickel basis was 910, with a basis premium rate of 0.72%, a one - year basis quantile of 54.75%, and a three - year basis quantile of 24.72%. The tin basis was 340, with a basis premium rate of 0.13%, a one - year basis quantile of 55.17%, and a three - year basis quantile of 49.17% [43]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. Copper's spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract was - 210, a decrease of 130 from last week. Aluminum's spread was - 60, an increase of 30 from last week. Zinc's spread was - 220, an increase of 30 from last week. Lead's spread was - 5, an increase of 35 from last week. Nickel's spread was 160, an increase of 20 from last week. Tin's spread was 70, an increase of 90 from last week [58]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The domestic - to - overseas ratios of base metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.14 for aluminum, 1.17 for zinc, 1.19 for lead, 1.11 for nickel, and 1.15 for tin. The import profits and losses of copper, zinc, lead, and nickel were 591, 142, 706, and 447 respectively this week, while those of other major metals were negative [75]. - **Arbitrage Considerations**: Cross - market arbitrage can take into account factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [75]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The report provides detailed ratio and spread data for various cross - variety combinations (e.g., copper - aluminum, copper - zinc) at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago, along with their respective quantiles [92].

豆粕现货由紧转松，连粕冲高回落 豆粕周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 主要观点 本周豆粕冲高回落。 成本端，当前美豆产区天气良好，截至20日种植率录得8%高于预期；不过上周美豆出口净销售录得27.7万 吨符合预期，叠加美豆油强势反弹，拉动美豆震荡走高。 国内，近期现货市场持续炒作缺货，叠加五一备货刺激下游成交转好，油厂大豆库存触底反弹，而豆粕大 幅去库至12.55万吨，为近10年同期低位。 策略：短期随着油厂开机逐渐增加，豆粕现货或将迎来回调，连粕整体面临压力；不过美豆强势对连粕形 成支撑，多空交织连粕或震荡运行；同时中长期新季美豆面积减少仍存在支撑，建议连粕09逢低做多。 当周CBOT大豆收于109.25美分/蒲，较上周收盘上涨12.50点，周涨幅1.19%； 当周M2509豆粕收于3031元/吨，较上周收盘上涨10点，周涨幅0.33%。 CBOT大豆 M2509豆粕 行情回顾 数据来源：文华财经，正信期货 CBOT大豆与M2509豆粕 截至4月25日收盘， 基本面分析 | 类别 | 关键词 | 描述 | | ...

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