Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, with supply surplus, weak demand, and no new intensification in geopolitical situations, international crude oil is expected to run weakly. For PX, its load has recovered to a relatively high level, and with few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, the rebound space for the PX - naphtha spread is limited [6]. - For PTA, multiple plants have maintenance expectations, so the supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Although there are expectations for new polyester plant launches, demand will gradually decline after the traditional peak season, and polyester monthly output will decline. With the weak outlook for crude oil, the seasonal weakness of PTA in the distant end is hard to change, and it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in November [6]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with the weakness of international crude oil, the supply - demand situation is expected to lead to inventory accumulation. However, the inventory at the main ports is at a low level, so MEG may continue to be under pressure, and the industry will continue the high - level hedging strategy [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **1.1 Market Review**: In October, although the oil price dropped and cost support was weak, the downstream demand for PX showed a slight improvement. Terminal inventory - building enthusiasm increased, and the downstream was in the destocking stage. Coupled with the relatively low PX - naphtha spread at the end of September, the PX price rose slightly compared to the end of September. As of October 31, the closing price of Asian PX was 820.33 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 12 US dollars/ton from September 30, with a decline rate of 1.42% [12]. - **1.2 Maintenance and Restart**: In October, the Fuguidaohua 1.4 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and the Urumqi Petrochemical was under maintenance for about half a month. The PX industry's operating load reached 90.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4% [15]. - **1.3 Demand and Spread**: As of October 31, the PX - naphtha spread reached 239.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.75 US dollars/ton from September 30. With the continuous destocking of downstream PTA, good polyester sales, reduced inventory, and enhanced terminal restocking enthusiasm, the PX - naphtha spread was significantly repaired [18]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **2.1 Market Review**: Drag from both cost and supply - demand factors led to a downward shift in the PTA price center. In the second half of the month, positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks repaired market expectations for demand prospects, boosting market sentiment and causing the price to rebound from a low level. As of October 31, the PTA spot price was 4,510 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 71 [19]. - **2.2 Capacity Utilization**: In October, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.77%. In November, plants such as Dushan Energy, Honggang Petrochemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Ineos, Yisheng Ningbo, and Hengli Petrochemical have maintenance plans, and PTA monthly output is expected to decline [23]. - **2.3 Processing Fee**: In October, new plants were under trial operation, and previously maintained plants restarted. The destocking amplitude of supply - demand decreased, and terminal performance was below expectations, causing the PTA processing fee to continue to weaken. The average monthly PTA processing fee in October was 145.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.06% [28]. - **2.4 Supply - Demand Inventory**: In November, with the expected significant increase in supply from new PTA plants, and with plants under maintenance and restarting, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [29]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Market Review**: In October, the sharp decline in international oil prices dragged down the cost of ethylene glycol. Maintenance enterprises restarted one after another, and new production capacity was released. With stable imports, the overall supply increased significantly. Terminal orders were mediocre, and downstream polyester inventory remained high. The East China spot price dropped below 4,100 yuan/ton from 4,214 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly to around 4,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. As of October 31, the closing price of MEG in Zhangjiagang was 4,111 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,210 yuan/ton [34]. - **3.2 Production Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was about 66.82%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non - coal - based ethylene glycol was about 65.28%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was about 69.42% [35]. - **3.3 Port Inventory**: As of October 30, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 49.9 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons from October 27. As of November 6, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 15 tons, including 6 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5 tons in Taicang, 2 tons in Ningbo, and 1.9 tons in Jiangyin [41]. - **3.4 Processing Profit**: With the increase in international oil prices, the cost - end support moved up. The domestic supply decreased briefly, and downstream polyester demand was stable. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were expected to be weak, and the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the sample profits of each process remain in a loss state. As of October 30, the naphtha profit dropped to - 116.86 US dollars/ton, and the integrated plants were still in a loss state, while the profits of other processes also maintained varying degrees of losses [44]. 4. Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **4.1 Polyester Output**: In October, polyester output was 6.87 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The polyester production capacity base increased to 87.635 million tons, and the polyester capacity utilization rate was about 87.66%, also a slight increase compared to September [47]. - **4.2 Polyester Load**: In November, there are expectations for new plant launches, but as the traditional peak season ends, demand will gradually decline, and polyester monthly output will decline [49]. - **4.3 Polyester Product Inventory**: At the end of the month, downstream continued to replenish inventory, and the overall sales of polyester products increased. The finished - product inventory of polyester factories decreased in the latter part of the month [52]. - **4.4 Polyester Cash Flow**: With the increase in polymerization costs and limited increases in polyester filament prices, the cash flow of most models was compressed [57]. - **4.5 Weaving Industry**: As of October 30, the operating load of the weaving industry was 69%, a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The average number of days for terminal weaving orders was 17.86 days, an increase of 2.18 days from the previous week. As the temperature drops, the market mainly focuses on winter orders for Double Eleven, but the export volume of stretch yarns has declined. Most manufacturers are cautious about November demand and are currently focusing on inventory digestion. If terminal orders cannot continue to increase, manufacturers may still reduce production to avoid risks [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, there will still be a differentiation phenomenon in the spot market. Hardwood pulp will be relatively firm under cost support, while softwood pulp will be weaker than hardwood pulp due to high inventory and demand substitution. Downstream base paper issued price increase letters in November, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The overall demand has slightly improved, and it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: In October, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and stable hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood decreased, while the price of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish remained stable, and the price of Bird increased slightly. The price of chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, while the price of natural color pulp and bagasse pulp increased [11][14]. - **Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis**: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has basically shown a convergent triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to fluctuate and rebound within the convergent triangle in November [17]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: In October, the main - continuous contract of pulp futures increased, while the overall increase of wood pulp spot price was less than that of pulp futures, so the basis discount decreased significantly [20]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: In October, the main - continuous contract of log futures first rose and then fell, with a monthly decline of 3.61%. The weighted trading volume increased, and the weighted open interest decreased [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: It is expected that the total pulp production in November will be 231.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The total supply will be 736.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The demand is expected to increase slightly [24][25]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In October 2025, the domestic pulp production increased. It is expected that the pulp production will decrease in November [26]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volumes of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp increased, while the import volume of natural color pulp decreased. The import average price of pulp continued to decline [32][35][38][40]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In October 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp continued to rise [46][48]. - **Wood Pulp Usage**: The wood pulp usage of household paper and white cardboard increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The wood pulp usage of offset paper increased slightly, while that of coated paper decreased slightly [50][53]. - **Downstream Paper Production**: In October 2025, the production of household paper, offset paper, and white cardboard increased, while the production of coated paper decreased slightly. It is expected that the production of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard will increase in November [56][58][60][64]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In October, the price of household paper remained stable, the price of cultural paper continued to decline, the prices of white board paper and white cardboard increased, and the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper also increased [67][69][71]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: In October, the overall port inventory increased, with Qingdao Port reducing inventory, Changshu Port increasing inventory, and Gaolan Port reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decrease in November [73][77]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: In October, the pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated. The supply structure improved, with stable blast - furnace operation and potential decline in EAF production. Demand showed an increase in building materials and a pattern of weak domestic and strong foreign demand for plates. Inventory was decreasing, but the demand's sustainability was uncertain. The strategy is for conservative investors to stay on the sidelines and consider shorting the rebar - iron ore ratio [3]. - For iron ore, the spot price rose slightly, and the futures price remained stable. The supply structure also improved, with increased global shipments and tightened near - term supply due to reduced arrivals. Demand was resilient despite a slight decrease in hot - metal production. Inventory continued to accumulate, and the market sentiment was bearish due to potential supply increases from the Simandou project. Aggressive investors can consider short - selling with a light position and watch for opportunities to add positions due to favorable policies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Price - The Shanghai rebar spot price fluctuated, with the rebar 01 contract rising 9 to close at 3046. The spot price in East China was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week [10]. - The Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price also fluctuated [9]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operation of 247 steel mills in China was basically stable. The blast - furnace operating rate was 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average hot - metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [13]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 52.3%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week. It is expected that the EAF production will decline slightly [21]. - The supply of five major steel products was 865.32 tons, up 8.37 tons week - on - week. Rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly by 0.62 tons [24]. 3.1.3 Demand - The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products was 892.73 tons, up 2.2% week - on - week. Building materials consumption increased by 4.4%, and plate consumption increased by 1.1%. The demand for building steel increased due to faster construction progress, but there may be a weakening pressure in the off - season [27]. - For hot - rolled coils, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was strong. After the National Day, the demand for derivatives such as cold - rolled and galvanized coils was weak, but overseas orders were still strong [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, strengthening cost support. The average profit of 76 independent EAF building steel mills was - 151 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 55 yuan/ton [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar mill inventory was basically flat, with a cumulative decrease of 0.01 tons. Social inventory decreased by 18.93 tons week - on - week [39]. - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory decreased by 0.5 tons, and social inventory decreased by 3.77 tons [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 01 contract basis was 144, narrowing 29 from last week. The hot - rolled coil 01 basis was 30, narrowing 16 from last week. The basis of both products showed a narrowing trend [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread - The rebar 1 - 5 spread was - 63, with the inversion deepening by 7. The hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread was - 15, with the inversion narrowing by 5. Both products basically maintained an inverted level [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened significantly, from 167 to 204 for the main contracts. The spot spread in Shanghai widened from 40 to 90, mainly due to the more obvious rebound of hot - rolled coil spot prices [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore futures price fluctuated, with the 01 contract closing flat at 771. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 3 to 781 yuan/ton [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, reaching 3333.5 tons. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 1960.2 tons, and from Brazil were 833.7 tons. The arrivals at 47 ports were 2676.3 tons, down 468 tons week - on - week [60][66]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 239.9 tons, down 1.1 tons week - on - week. The daily average spot trading volume at major Chinese ports was 125.3 tons, up 15.7 tons week - on - week [69][73]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 15109.49 tons, up 148 tons week - on - week, lower than the same period last year [76]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - As of September 29, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 9079.2 tons, up 96 tons week - on - week [79]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to Qingdao was 23.695 dollars, down 0.87 dollars week - on - week. The freight from Australia to Qingdao was 10.405 dollars, down 0.08 dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The iron ore 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, down 0.5 week - on - week. The 01 contract basis was 53, widening 4 week - on - week [85]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Keep holding short positions in iron ore futures - Consider shorting rebar 01 and going long on iron ore 01 for arbitrage - Pay attention to the opportunity of the hot - rolled coil 01 basis widening and increase short positions on the futures market appropriately. No need to focus on the iron ore 01 basis widening as the upside is limited [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by environmental issues in some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai, the decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance due to political turmoil in Mongolia, and better - than - expected steel production and inventory data, coking coal and coke prices rose significantly. As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 4.46% to 1757.5, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 5.4% to 1248.5 [4][9]. - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are healthy. However, after the macro - level meeting, expectations have weakened. With the approaching off - peak and peak season transition, steel mill profits are compressed, and hot metal production may not maintain its high level. There is limited upward momentum in the futures market in the short term, and there may be a risk of a callback. In the long term, coking coal maintains a bullish outlook under the expectations of anti - involution and strict coal mine safety supervision [4][9]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take profits on single - sided long positions and not to chase the upswing. Those with empty positions should wait and see and look for buying opportunities after a callback. The 1 - 5 reverse spread has poor trend characteristics, so it is advisable to exit and wait and see [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - Last week, coke prices rose significantly, but there is limited upward momentum in the short term. The second - round spot price increase has been implemented. The coke 01 contract rose 4.46% to 1757.5. The prices of coke in different regions and at different locations (such as origin, steel mills, and ports) have shown varying degrees of increase [4][7][9][10]. - The freight for coke transportation by truck has remained stable. For example, the freight from Xiaoyi to Rizhao, Jiexiu to Fengnan, and Wuhai to Tangshan has not changed compared to last week [17]. 3.1.2 Supply - Due to factors such as environmental protection, maintenance, and losses, some coking plants have reduced production, leading to a tightening of the supply side. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coking enterprises' full - sample was 73.47%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 64.61 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 85.03%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 46.11 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous week [28][33]. 3.1.3 Demand - The hot metal production is still at a high level, providing strong support for the raw material demand. As of October 24, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily hot metal output was 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points from the previous week [36]. - The speculative sentiment is positive, but the export profit is expected to decline slightly. The daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market is lower than the same period in previous years [37][39]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills' coke inventory has decreased, coking plants' inventory has increased, and the total inventory has remained basically unchanged. As of October 24, the total coke inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 891.89 tons. Among them, the port inventory increased by 4.94 tons to 200.09 tons, the independent coking enterprises' full - sample inventory increased by 1.35 tons to 58.64 tons, and the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 6.28 tons to 633.16 tons [42][45]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises has been compressed. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking enterprises was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan from the previous week. The 01 contract's coke futures profit decreased by 8.85 yuan/ton to 134.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [52]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 has expanded, and the 1 - 5 spread has strengthened. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 40.5 to - 122.39 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.5 to - 129.5 compared to the previous week [56]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but there is limited upward momentum in the short term. The spot price mainly increased. The coking coal 01 contract rose 5.4% to 1248.5. The prices of coking coal from different origins and regions (such as domestic mines, Australia, Mongolia, and Russia) have shown varying degrees of increase [4][9][60][62]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply from domestic coal mines is tight due to environmental inspections and underground issues in some mines. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the 288 port has decreased to a low level due to political turmoil in Mongolia, but it is expected to return to normal this week. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.87%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily output of clean coal was 26.67 tons, an increase of 0.56 tons from the previous week. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative imports of coking coal were 8357 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 6.03%, an improvement of 1.56 percentage points from the previous month [61][70][73][74]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Independent coking enterprises have replenished their inventory, while coal mines' inventory has decreased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. As of October 24, the total coking coal inventory increased by 13.25 tons to 2567.47 tons. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises decreased by 15.87 tons to 189.54 tons, the port inventory increased by 2.94 tons to 275.65 tons, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants decreased by 0.79 tons to 289.62 tons, the full - sample inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 32.33 tons to 1029.70 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 5.36 tons to 782.96 tons [78][81]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The basis of coking coal 01 has weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to strengthen. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 31.5 to - 23.5 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.5 to - 64 compared to the previous week [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Fundamentally, precious metals retreated from highs last week and showed a volatile upward trend. The easing of Sino-US trade relations reduced risk aversion, but geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict still drove the safe-haven demand for precious metals. The suspension of CFTC data and possible speculative long positions led to a significant correction in precious metals. With the decline of COMEX silver inventory, the squeeze in the London silver market gradually eased. In the short term, precious metals face correction pressure and will remain volatile and strong [3]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories continued to decline, and the tightness of London silver inventory gradually eased. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased. Overall, ETF funds continued to flow into the precious metals sector last week [3]. - In terms of strategy, in the short term, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade consultations and the negotiations at the APEC summit at the end of the month. The market has basically digested the expectation of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in October. In the long term, the US government shutdown continues, and the US national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, increasing the fiscal burden. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization and global political turmoil, central banks continue to buy gold, and precious metals still have allocation value. The prices of Shanghai gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to buy in batches on dips and hold long positions in the medium term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices in both the spot and futures markets declined last week. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market dropped by 0.95%, and the COMEX silver futures price fell by 0.49%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased, while total positions and speculative net long positions increased [5]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The domestic gold-silver ratio rebounded last week. Due to the smaller market size, weaker liquidity, and lack of central bank buying support in the silver market, its decline was greater than that of gold, driving up the gold-silver ratio [7]. - **Price Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets**: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and overseas markets decreased compared with last week. The decline in domestic precious metal prices was more significant. The improvement in Sino-US trade relations and the positive outlook of the 15th Five-Year Plan reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals [12]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index strengthened slightly last week, suppressing precious metals. The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the possible implementation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in Japan boosted the US dollar [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yield**: The real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasuries declined last week. The high debt scale and the government shutdown increased market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability, driving investors to buy US Treasuries and pushing down real yields [16]. - **US Key Economic Data**: - **CPI**: In September, the US CPI and core CPI increased year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. The inflation pressure of core commodities and services eased, and it is expected to open up space for the Fed to cut interest rates in October [20]. - **PPI**: In August, the US PPI was lower than expected year-on-year and turned negative month-on-month for the first time in four months, indicating a relief of inflation pressure at the production end [21]. - **Core PCE**: In August, the US core PCE and PCE increased year-on-year and month-on-month, in line with market expectations. Due to the slowdown in core inflation and employment risks, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [27]. - **PMI**: In September, the US ISM manufacturing and service PMI were lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service industries [30]. - **Retail Sales**: In August, the US retail sales increased month-on-month, higher than expected, mainly driven by online sales, clothing, and sports goods [30]. - **Employment Data**: In September, the US ADP employment decreased significantly, and the August non-farm payrolls were far lower than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high. The government shutdown affected the release of employment data, increasing uncertainty [33]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government shutdown is likely to continue until November, becoming the second-longest in history. It has a negative impact on the economy and society, increasing the fiscal burden and employment pressure. However, the easing of Sino-US trade relations and the geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have different effects on precious metals [35][36]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of September 23, 2025, CMX gold and silver speculative net long positions increased compared with the previous month, indicating that hedge funds increased their holdings of gold and silver [39]. - **ETF Positions**: As of October 23, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF increased compared with last week. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased significantly last week and then declined, remaining at a high level [40]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: As of October 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased compared with last week. The return of silver inventory from New York to London eased the squeeze in the London silver market [45]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In October 2025, the global gold reserve decreased slightly, while China's gold reserve increased. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased year-on-year, mainly driven by ETF investment. The global silver market is expected to be in short supply in 2025, with strong industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic industry [49]. - **Key Events This Week**: This week, focus on the Fed's October interest rate meeting, with a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, and the APEC summit, where the meeting between Chinese and US leaders may affect Sino-US trade negotiations [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical factors are on the rise, leading to an upward correction in oil prices. However, due to the repeated attitude of Trump and macro - instability, there is a risk of a sudden decline, so participation should be cautious. In the medium - term, geopolitical factors continuously cause disturbances, making it difficult to grasp the trading rhythm. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on price rallies due to the oversupply issue, with the WTI price expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From October 20th to 24th, international oil prices rebounded significantly. WTI returned above $60. As of October 24th, WTI settled at $61.5/barrel (+6.92%), Brent at $65.94/barrel (+8.08%), and INE SC at 466.2 yuan/barrel (+6.17%) [7]. - Various price - related data such as cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, and financial attribute data of crude oil are presented, showing different percentage changes [10]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Trump's remarks eased market pessimism. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index recovered after last week's decline, and the VIX volatility fell to a low level [12]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility rebounded, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of October 24th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 38.7, and the US dollar index was 98.9417 [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC - Related Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in September, rising by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. Most countries started to increase production, and the eight core OPEC+ countries accelerated their production increase [19]. - According to the IEA, the production of 9 OPEC member countries increased by 760,000 barrels per day in September. The overall over - production of these 9 countries decreased compared to the previous month, and the core 7 countries postponed their compensation cuts to the first half of next year [23]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 248,000 barrels per day to 9.961 million barrels per day in September. Iran's production also increased month - on - month, rising by 45,000 barrels per day to 3.258 million barrels per day [26]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - OPEC data shows that Russia's crude oil production in September was 9.321 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 148,000 barrels per day. IEA data shows a production of 9.21 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day. With increasing sanctions, Russia's production may remain at a relatively low level [34]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Supply - As of the week of October 24th, the number of active US oil rigs was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous month and a decrease of 60 year - on - year. The efficiency improvement in drilling and wells allows producers to maintain high - level production while controlling capital expenditure [38]. - As of the week of October 17th, US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. High oil prices since June have boosted production enthusiasm [40]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of October 17th, the total daily demand for US refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 288,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. End - of - year demand may improve slightly [44]. - In the four - week period ending on October 17th, the average daily demand for US gasoline decreased by 126,000 barrels to 8.587 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The average daily demand for distillates increased by 28,000 barrels to 4.011 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The average daily consumption of kerosene - type products increased by 55,000 barrels to 1.712 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [48]. - As of October 24th, the gasoline crack spread was $19.64/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $39.43/barrel. The crack spreads of gasoline and heating oil showed different trends [52]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 24th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $32.12/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.99/barrel. In the third quarter, European diesel performed better due to low inventory and restocking demand [56]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - In September, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.963 million tons year - on - year to 62.69 million tons (+6.75%), and imports increased by 1.76 million tons year - on - year to 47.25 million tons (+3.87%). Currently, China's oil demand is in the off - season, with processing volume, imports, and refinery operating rates declining [60]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - In October, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 1.1 million barrels per day (up), 0.7 million barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.1 million, 0.7 million, and 1.4 million barrels per day [64]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 17th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels to 422.82 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. SPR inventories increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.56 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels [65]. - As of the four - week period ending on October 17th, US crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day to 1.715 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate increased by 2.9 percentage points to 88.6% [69]. - As of October 24th, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.54/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.37/barrel. The WTI spread maintained a back structure [71]. 4.2 Brent Spread - As of October 24th, the Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.74/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.98/barrel. The Brent spread also maintained a back structure, stronger than the WTI spread due to supply concerns in Europe [74]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - According to the EIA's October report, in 2025, the global daily oil supply is 105.85 million barrels, and the daily demand is 103.99 million barrels, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.88 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month. The supply - demand surplus pattern is clear this year [78]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamentals indicate the arrival of the off - season, and the term structure continues to flatten. Brent may maintain a stronger contango structure due to geopolitical supply concerns. However, if OPEC accelerates production in the near - term as the peak - season demand weakens, the term structure may change [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With cost support and peak - season restocking, PTA inventory reduction continues. It is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation at a low valuation. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is weakening, and the rebound momentum is limited. Attention should be paid to crude oil dynamics [6]. - MEG: The cost side of ethylene glycol performs well. With some device maintenance and blocked arrival of imported goods, it is expected to continue the short - term rebound trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Market Trend**: Due to the US increasing sanctions on Russia, the ongoing stalemate in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, combined with the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil rebounded from a low level. For PX, with cost support, many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, and terminal restocking enthusiasm increased, leading to a recovery in the absolute price of PX. As of October 24, the closing price of Asian PX was $815/ton CFR China, up $32/ton from October 17 [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The 1 million - ton device of Urumqi Petrochemical continued maintenance and was planned to restart around October 29; two 1.4 - million - ton devices of Fushun Dahua continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PX was 86.33%, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week [19]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 24, the PX - naphtha price difference was $233.9/ton, a decrease of $12.3/ton from October 17. Although many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, the cost side was significantly driven up by crude oil, resulting in a narrow decline in the PX - naphtha price difference [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: In the first half of the week, affected by the weakening of oil prices, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was low, and the pessimistic sentiment in the industrial chain spread. The spot price of PTA continued to weaken. In the middle of the week, as oil prices rebounded from a low level, the overall sentiment in the commodity market improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries in the traditional peak season increased. The spot price rebounded from a low level. As of October 24, the spot price of PTA was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA reached 75.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%. Although the load of Yisheng Ningbo's device decreased, due to the load increase of Yisheng New Materials last week, the increase was more than the decrease, and the overall domestic production this period increased. In October, Ineos and Hengli both had maintenance plans, and the restart times of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan were not yet determined. The monthly production of PTA may increase significantly. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more - than - expected production cuts in existing devices [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The terminal performance was mediocre, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries was hindered, and the spot price trend was sluggish. However, the raw material supply was tight, and the price trend was strong. This week, the PTA processing fee continued to decline. Next week, there is an expectation of a rebound in the PTA spot price, but the maintenance devices have restart plans, and the polyester end changes little. The inventory reduction amplitude in the balance sheet narrows, and the PTA processing fee may be slightly repaired [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, there was insufficient PTA device maintenance, and the maintenance devices restarted one after another. With little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be in a loose balance [32]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: At the beginning of the week, the market continued to worry about the supply - demand pattern. In the middle of the week, affected by factors such as the continuous rise of crude oil, the reduction in supply, and the decrease in imported goods, the price of ethylene glycol rose from a low level. As of October 24, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang reached 4,183 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market remained stable at 4,280 yuan/ton [37]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 68.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In October, due to cautious import expectations, the inventory accumulation amplitude at ports was limited, but the domestic production increase expectation was obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of unexpected device changes [38]. - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China was 127,000 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to October 16 [42][44]. - **Profit**: With the stable operation of newly invested domestic devices, the overall supply continued to increase. The terminal orders were mediocre, and the downstream polyester demand was lackluster. The trend of weakening supply - demand could not be reversed. The raw material prices fluctuated, and the sample profits of each ethylene glycol production process showed both increases and decreases. As of October 24, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $95.04/ton, up $13.85/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 610.44 yuan/ton, down 140.24 yuan/ton from last week [46]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. Some domestic polyester devices were shut down for maintenance during the week. Next week, the previously shut - down and maintained devices have no clear restart expectations, and the commissioning of new devices is postponed. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will decline slightly next week [51]. - **Capacity Utilization of Each Product**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.04%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 85.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%; among them, the average capacity utilization rate of conventional staple fiber was 88.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The Fujian Shanli plant shut down during the period. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [57]. - **Inventory**: Downstream industries carried out centralized restocking during the week, the overall sales of polyester increased, and the finished product inventory of factories decreased [58]. - **Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost increased, and polyester filament manufacturers sold products at discounted prices. The cash flow of most varieties was compressed [63]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 15.68 days, an increase of 0.88 days compared to last week. As the weather gets colder, the demand for domestic autumn and winter fabrics is good, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is relieved. However, the market lacks confidence in future orders, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis. It is expected that the operating rate will still face downward pressure in the future [64]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International crude oil rebounded from a low level, and the absolute price of PX recovered [68]. - **Supply**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA increased slightly, and the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate decreased [68]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased [68]. - **Inventory**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the near - term supply remains tight, while the long - term supply - demand inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China decreased [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rebound slightly. Although the inventory at domestic ports is decreasing, the supply is abundant. There is still inventory pressure on finished paper, and industry profits are meager. Affected by policy expectations and macro - emotions, the price of the pulp 2601 contract is expected to oscillate and rebound in the range of 5150 - 5420 this week [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp remained stable, while the price of natural pulp increased by 3.09% month - on - month, and the prices of chemimechanical pulp and non - wood pulp remained stable. For example, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the price of natural pulp Venus increased by 150 yuan/ton (or + 3.09%) [11][13]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2601 oscillated and rebounded steadily last week, closing at 5240 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton (or + 2.3%) week - on - week. The weighted trading volume was 1.3 million lots, a decrease of 199,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 355,000 lots, a decrease of 41,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The discount of the futures - spot basis continued to shrink. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 250 yuan/ton, a reduction of 128 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The log futures contract 2601 showed a trend of rising first and then falling with slight oscillations. It closed at 829.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.78%) week - on - week. The weighted trading volume was 69,200 lots, a decrease of 9700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 25,100 lots, an increase of 3700 lots [20]. 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 535,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6000 tons (or + 1.13%). The production of broad - leaved pulp was 235,000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons (or + 1.29%), and the production of chemimechanical pulp was 236,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons (or + 0.85%). This week, the production of domestic broad - leaved pulp is expected to be about 237,000 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp about 237,000 tons [22]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaved pulp was 84.9%, a decrease of 0.9%, and that of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 89.8%, an increase of 0.6%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaved pulp is expected to rise due to the resumption of some sample enterprises [25]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In September 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69,000 tons (or + 3.24%); the wood pulp production was 1.89 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons (or + 4.07%); the non - wood pulp production was 306,000 tons, a decrease of 5000 tons (or - 1.61%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In September 2025, the production of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons (or + 1.12%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, an increase of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaved pulp was 988,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons (or + 6.93%), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.0%, an increase of 1.1% [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In September 2025, the production profit of broad - leaved pulp was 575.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.1 yuan/ton (or + 9.33%), and a year - on - year decrease of 585.46 yuan/ton (or - 50.45%). The production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 301.3 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.9525 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 299,600 tons (or + 11.29%) and a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons (or + 10.17%). The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 27.0608 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.42 million tons (or + 5.6%) [36]. 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: - **Household Tissue Paper**: Last week, the production was 284,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3800 tons (or + 1.35%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.2%, an increase of 1.63%. This week, the production is expected to be about 286,000 tons [40]. - **Offset Paper**: Last week, the production was 207,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4000 tons (or + 1.97%), and the capacity utilization rate was 53.9%, an increase of 0.9%. This week, the production is expected to increase to about 210,000 tons [43]. - **Coated Paper**: Last week, the production was 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6000 tons (or + 7.59%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, an increase of 4.8%. This week, the production is expected to be about 85,000 tons [46]. - **White Cardboard**: Last week, the production was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons (or + 4.35%), and the capacity utilization rate was 79.65%, an increase of 3.32%. This week, the production is expected to be about 362,000 tons [49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: - **Household Tissue Paper**: Last week, the gross profit was 151 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton (or - 4.43%). - **White Cardboard**: The social gross profit was 110 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton (or + 0.92%). - **Offset Paper**: The average cost was 4887.0 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 yuan/ton (or - 0.09%), and the gross profit was - 244 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 5 yuan/ton. - **Coated Paper**: The average cost was 4781.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton (or - 0.10%), and the gross profit was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton (or + 2.66%) [52][55]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In September 2025, the actual domestic pulp consumption was 3.461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons (or + 1.75%) and a year - on - year increase of 237,000 tons (or + 7.36%) [56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: - **Household Tissue Paper and Cultural Paper**: The prices remained stable. For example, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: The price of white board paper remained stable, while the price of white cardboard increased slightly. For example, the price of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g red - crowned crane white cardboard increased by 50 yuan/ton (or + 1.30%) [59][64]. 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: The overall port inventory is decreasing. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons (or - 0.92%). Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.39 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 0.86%); Changshu Port's inventory was 505,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons (or + 1.41%); Tianjin Port's inventory was 75,000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons (or - 3.85%) [67][68]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% month - on - month to 228,400 tons. The warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.83% to 215,700 tons [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price continues to decline, and the futures market shows weak performance. The blast furnace operation remains stable, while the electric furnace production increases. Building materials inventory is decreasing faster, but plate inventory accumulates unexpectedly. The demand for building materials rebounds month - on - month, with weak domestic and strong foreign demand for plates. Steel mill profits decline, and the basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar diverges. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel has improved recently, with short - term price rebound potential, but the sustainability is unclear and the amplitude is weak due to macro - impacts. - For iron ore, the spot price of ore drops slightly, and the futures price falls significantly. Global shipments decline month - on - month, while the arrival of resources at ports increases substantially. Iron ore demand remains stable, and port inventory accumulates significantly. Shipping prices decline, and the basis spread on the futures market has no operation space. Recently, the supply - demand structure of iron ore has weakened slightly, and the market is bearish due to the expected supply increase from the Simandou project. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Price - The Shanghai rebar spot price and the hot - rolled coil spot price have both declined. The rebar 01 contract dropped 66 to 3037, and the spot price in East China decreased by 70 to 3180 yuan/ton week - on - week. [7][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production is basically stable. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide is 84.27%, unchanged from last week, and the ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons week - on - week. - Electric furnace supply increases. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide is 53.2%, up 2.13 percentage points week - on - week. - Rebar production decreases slightly, with a cumulative reduction of 2.24 tons to 201.16 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreases slightly by 1.45 tons to 321.84 tons week - on - week. [11][13][19][22] 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials demand rebounds month - on - month. The weekly consumption of five major steel products is 873.10 tons, up 16.2%. The consumption of building materials increases by 35.6% month - on - month, and the construction site demand rebounds significantly. - For plates, domestic demand is weak, while foreign demand is strong. The production schedule of three major white - goods in October continues to decline, and the domestic consumption data in September is weak. However, due to the decline in domestic steel export quotes and the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the export orders are acceptable. [23][25][28] 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace profits continue to narrow, and electric furnace losses expand. The steel mill profitability rate is 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace building material steel mills is - 153 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit is - 57 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week. [29][32] 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar inventory: The total inventory of rebar in steel mills decreases by 7.7 tons, and the social inventory decreases by 10.89 tons week - on - week. Currently, the inventory of rebar in steel mills and social inventory face significant year - on - year pressure. - Hot - rolled coil inventory: The inventory in steel mills decreases by 5.75 tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increases by 12.04 tons. The total inventory is still accumulating. [34][38] 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 01 contract basis closes at 173, up 16 from last week, and the hot - rolled coil 01 basis closes at 46, narrowing by 29. The basis of the two contracts diverges, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of the hot - rolled coil basis to widen. [39][41] 3.1.7 Inter - term Spread - The rebar 1 - 5 spread closes at - 56, basically unchanged, and the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread closes at - 20, with the inversion deepening by 7. Currently, the two varieties basically maintain an inverted level, and the short - term change direction is unclear. [42][44] 3.1.8 Inter - commodity Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market narrows significantly. The spread of the main contract narrows from 178 to 167, and the spread of the mainstream brands of hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai narrows from 90 to 40, mainly due to the supplementary decline of the hot - rolled coil spot price. [45][48] 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore drops significantly, and the spot price also declines. The 01 contract drops 24 to 771, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port drops 11 to 778 yuan/ton. [51][53] 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments decline slightly month - on - month. The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3207.5 tons, down 72 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in October is 3243.25 tons, down 39 tons month - on - month. - The arrival of resources at ports increases for two consecutive weeks. The current arrival volume at 47 ports is 3144.1 tons, up 368 tons week - on - week. [54][56][62] 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: Pig iron production is basically stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 240.95 tons/day, down 0.59 tons/day week - on - week. - Speculative demand: The average daily spot trading volume at major Chinese ports is 109.6 tons/day, up 70 tons week - on - week, but recently shows a weakening trend. [63][65][68] 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports accumulates, with a total of 14961.87 tons, up 321 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the increase in arrivals and the decline in port clearance. - Steel mill inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills is 8982.7 tons, down 63 tons week - on - week. Steel mills are mainly consuming inventory and have weak procurement enthusiasm. [69][71][74] 3.2.5 Shipping - Shipping prices decline. The freight from Brazil to Qingdao is 24.213 dollars, down 1 dollar week - on - week, and the freight from Australia to Qingdao is 10.555 dollars, down 1.6 dollars week - on - week. [75][77] 3.2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrows in a volatile manner, closing at 21, down 2.5 week - on - week. The 01 contract basis closes at 49, widening by 14, and is expected to widen to over 60. [78][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot transaction of coking coal improved. With the news of the upcoming central safety production assessment and inspection in 2025 and better - than - expected steel production reduction and inventory depletion data, both coking coal and coke fluctuated strongly. As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.87% to 1676, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.2% to 1179 [8]. - In the context of anti - involution expectations and over - production inspection policies, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of coal mines. Pig iron production remains at a high level, and the spot transaction of coking coal is acceptable. The upward space of coking coal depends on the macro situation and the sustainability of steel inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and continue to pay attention to the reverse spread of coking coal 1 - 5. In the long term, coking coal maintains a bullish outlook under the expectations of a strict macro environment and coal mine safety supervision [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Last week, the futures market fluctuated strongly. The second - round price increase of spot coke started but has not been implemented yet. The spot price remained stable, and attention should be paid to this week's macro and steel data. The freight for coke transportation remained stable [6][9][16]. - The coke 01 contract rose 0.87% to 1676 as of Friday's close [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - Profit compression and production reduction in some coking plants led to a slight tightening of coke supply. As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.24%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 65.29 tons, a decrease of 0.83 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 45.94 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week [27][32]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. However, after the holiday, due to logistics, weather and other reasons, the inventory - building pace of steel mills was slow. As of October 17, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons from the previous week; and the profitability rate of steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points from the previous week [35]. - Speculative sentiment was average, export profit changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials was lower than the same period in previous years [37]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total coke inventory decreased by 17.87 tons to 891.88 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the port inventory increased by 0.06 tons to 195.15 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 6.55 tons to 57.29 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 11.38 tons to 639.44 tons [42][45]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the futures market profit of coke weakened slightly. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan from the previous week. The futures market profit of coke 01 decreased by 9.4 yuan/ton to 143.3 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 44.3 to - 81.86 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4 to - 148 compared with the previous week [57]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Most of the spot prices increased [60][63]. - The coking coal 01 contract rose 1.2% to 1179 as of Friday's close [8]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas continued to recover, the output of coal washing plants was basically flat, the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Mongolian Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, and the year - on - year decline in imported coking coal from January to August 2025 narrowed [66][74]. - As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.79%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average clean coal output was 26.11 tons, an increase of 0.45 tons from the previous week [71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories appropriately, coal mines did not accumulate obvious inventories, and the total inventory increased. As of October 17, the total coking coal inventory increased by 42.95 tons to 2554.22 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises increased by 9.55 tons to 205.41 tons, the port inventory decreased by 22.28 tons to 272.71 tons, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 10.18 tons to 290.41 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 38.31 tons to 997.37 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased by 7.19 tons to 788.32 tons [77][80]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The basis of coking coal 01 weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 33 to 8 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14 to - 82.5 compared with the previous week [101].