Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,600 tons week-on-week, with a slight increase in the production of spodumene and mica. In July, Chile exported 13,600 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons to 142,400 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has stopped production, creating a short - term supply - demand gap [6]. - Demand side: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the terminal market were 987,000 units, a 12.0% increase year-on-year and an 11.2% decrease month-on-month [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine will create a supply - demand gap of thousands of tons, and it is expected that the lithium price will be strong. If the mine resumes production quickly, the lithium price may fall. If the scope of mine shutdowns expands, the lithium price center will further increase [6]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In June, the import volume was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month-on-month. In May, imports from Australia decreased by 31% month-on-month, from South Africa increased by 87% month-on-month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 3% month-on-month [10]. - **Lithium concentrate price**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [13]. - **Domestic lithium carbonate production**: In July, China's monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a 4% increase month-on-month and a 26% increase year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling increased by 14% and 10% respectively month-on-month, while that from lepidolite and salt lakes decreased by 8% and 2% respectively [16]. - **Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China**: From January to June, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a 11.3% increase year-on-year. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, also with a slight week-on-week increase [23]. Demand Side - **Positive electrode factory capacity utilization**: From January to June, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes was 1.48 million tons, a 47.8% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of ternary positive electrodes was 278,000 tons, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. In May, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.8%, and that of ternary materials was 49.5% [30]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to May this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million units, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million units, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and US sales were 517,000 units, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [34]. - **China's new energy vehicle market**: From January to June, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 6.934 million units, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. From July 1st to July 20th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% decrease month-on-month [37]. - **Power battery production**: In June, China's total production of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase month-on-month and a 51.4% increase year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase year-on-year [42]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [47]. - **New energy storage installation**: From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% increase in power and a 112.94% increase in capacity year-on-year. In June, the installed capacity was 2.33 GW/5.63 GWh, a significant decrease year-on-year and month-on-month [50]. - **August downstream production scheduling**: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side [56]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt factory cost**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene is 79,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,201 yuan/ton week-on-week. The theoretical production profit is - 11,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 201 yuan/ton week-on-week [53]. - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 5,060, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The basis of the contract turned negative [59]. - **Contract spread**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, with the spread increasing by 920 compared to last week [64].

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250811 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - In the macro - aspect, copper prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation within 78000 - 78500. After the copper tariff was implemented, the first stage of COMEX copper's sharp decline to narrow the price difference ended. US "hard data" started to weaken, with the manufacturing level hitting a 9 - month low and three - month non - farm payroll data being sluggish. The market anticipates a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear. In China, risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [4][91]. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, the term structure continued to flatten, and China's copper output in July reached a new high. The key lies in overseas fundamental changes, especially the future flow of 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (a 170,000 - ton increase this year). It may flow back to the LME copper market, and the price may be adjusted through COMEX copper's continued decline and a subsequent strength reversal [4][91]. - Regarding the strategy, the domestic copper price game has become dull with both long and short positions reducing. Since the main price variables are overseas and it is currently in a window of macro - expectation changes with a flat fundamental situation, some put - option positions can be added in the low - volatility environment [4][91]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI and Economic Data**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, and China declined. The US manufacturing PMI hit a 9 - month low, and China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders decreased, raw material prices rose, and finished - product inventory declined [13][14]. - **Interest - rate Expectations**: The US "hard data" weakened, and the market expects a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear [14]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [14]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - **Global Production**: In 2024, the global copper mine output was 22.835 million tons, a 2.54% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative output was 9.524 million tons, a 3.27% increase. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus in 2025 [22]. - **China's Imports**: In 2024, China imported 28.114 million tons of copper concentrate, a 2.1% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative import was 14.7543 million tons, a 6.4% increase, but the import data in June declined [26]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - The SMM import copper concentrate index on August 8 was - 38.06 dollars/ton, up 4.03 dollars/ton from the previous week. The PT Gresik smelter's extended maintenance and the approaching expiration of Indonesia's export quota led to a rise in spot TC [31]. Refined Copper Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 3.94 tons month - on - month. It is expected to decline by 0.6 tons in August due to supply shortages [37]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper and exported 457,500 tons. In 2025, from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons (an 8.6% decrease), and exports were 307,900 tons (a 1.97% increase) [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 2.25 million tons of copper scrap. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.1454 million tons, a 0.5% decrease. The import source structure changed [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power investment increased by 12.14%, and grid investment increased by 15.26%. In 2025, from January to June, power investment increased by 5.9%, and grid investment increased by 14.6% [53]. - **Wire and Cable**: Related to grid investment, no detailed new data provided [55]. - **Air - conditioning**: In 2024, the air - conditioning output increased by 9.7%. In 2025, from January to June, it increased by 5.5%, and the industry entered the off - season [58]. - **Automobile**: From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, real - estate completion and new - start areas declined. In June 2025, the completion area declined by 14.3%, and the decline narrowed [66]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the three exchanges was 502,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 79,000 tons, a 2,100 - ton decrease [72]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of August 5, the CFTC non - commercial long net positions were 20,686 lots, a 16,661 - lot decrease. Both long and short positions decreased [74]. Premiums and Discounts - As of August 8, the LME copper spot was at a discount of - 69.55 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium first declined and then rose. Imported goods will suppress the premium in the future [85]. Basis - As of August 8, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 210 yuan/ton [87]. Strategy - In the current situation of dull domestic copper - price game, with major price variables overseas, in the window of macro - expectation changes and flat fundamentals, add some put - option positions in the low - volatility environment [4][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Short - and medium - term strategy: The anti - involution trading is over, and the market returns to the fundamental reality. The expectation that zinc will shift from balance to surplus remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out short positions on rallies [6]. - Macro aspect: As of August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 9.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 46.5% [7]. - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market eased, and zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Inventory showed a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventories continued to decline while domestic inventories continued to accumulate, which is the result of the geographical differentiation of refined zinc output. Overseas smelters face high costs. With the long - term treatment charge (TC) at a record low, high - cost overseas smelters are under great loss pressure, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization and production cuts. In contrast, domestic smelters have low costs and currently enjoy good smelting profits from both long - term and spot TCs. As a result, domestic smelting output has increased significantly, with the output in July having a year - on - year growth rate of over 20%. The trend of an expanding import loss of refined zinc also reflects the different situations of smelting at home and abroad. It is expected that the import loss will continue to widen, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the refined zinc export window opening. From a global perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore has gradually become looser, and the increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. Although the transmission from mine - end production increase to smelting output expansion has been delayed due to production cuts by overseas smelters, considering the sufficient existing and new smelting capacities in China, which can absorb the incremental output from the mine end, the increase in global zinc ore output will ultimately translate into an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden concern of a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the current level. Whether the demand is estimated to be relatively optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will put downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Output - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% [8]. - The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80 per ton, the lowest in history and halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed as shown by the change in spot TC [8]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Import Volume and Treatment Charge - From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has boosted the TC [11]. - As of August 8, according to SMM, the TC for imported zinc concentrate was reported at $82.3 per ton, and the TC for domestic zinc concentrate was reported at 3,900 yuan per ton. Both domestic and imported ore TCs have been raised several times recently [11]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - As the TC has been continuously raised, the smelter's profit has been continuously improved [14]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Output - In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18% [18]. - In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc output was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As the profit recovers, the output is gradually increasing [18]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons [20]. - The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part II: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side 3.1 Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31% [25]. - The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. 3.2 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) slowed down [27]. - The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [27]. 3.3 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic automobile output was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [30]. - In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted in stages, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. Part III: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc has been continuously accumulating. With the continuous increase in domestic smelter output, the trend of social inventory accumulation will continue [32]. 4.2 Spot Premium or Discount - As of August 8, the LME 0 - 3 premium or discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.23 per ton [35]. - With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [35]. 4.3 Exchange Position - As of August 1, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 25,513 lots [38]. - The weighted position volume of SHFE zinc has declined recently [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased; the reported meeting between Trump and Putin is expected to have a significant short - term impact on the market; China's July CPI data beat expectations, and under the influence of "anti - involution" and positive policy expectations, the probability of macro funds entering the market to go long has increased [6]. - After the Fed's July FOMC meeting and China's mid - year economic meeting, the short - term macro environment is in a window period, but the Trump - Putin meeting may increase market volatility. Currently, the Shanghai aluminum industry is in the off - season, with a slightly wider spot discount, general overall trading, and still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The 21,000 level is an important resistance level. Considering that social inventory is still relatively low compared to the same period, and the sentiment in China's capital market remains strong under expectation guidance, it has a strong driving effect on the Shanghai aluminum price. Therefore, the market is likely to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [8]. Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In June, the in - production capacity increased by 3.65 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly. The weekly domestic arrival volume of ore increased, but the shipment volume from Guinea decreased significantly. In June 2025, China's net alumina exports were 68,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease, with 15 consecutive months of net exports, and the export profit margin slightly narrowed [9]. - In July 2025, China's total alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.65% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.37% and a month - on - month increase of 1.5 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.7493 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cumulative output this year was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In July 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 83.75%, at a moderately high level in history, returning to the same level as last year, with a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. There is still significant upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Cost - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $77 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the CIF average price of Australian bauxite remained unchanged at $69 per ton [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,640 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.27% [30]. Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,847.8 yuan per ton, with a profit of 418 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The alumina export profit was 73 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 26 yuan per ton [9][33][36]. Inventory - As of August 7, the port inventory of alumina was 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [39]. Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply situation. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In July 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% and a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 98.40, with a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the cumulative output this year was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24][48]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. It is at a historically high level, and there is limited upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's net electrolytic aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58,600 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 18,300 tons; the cumulative net imports from January to June were 1.1635 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,700 tons. The import channel for electrolytic aluminum has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - As of August 7, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,275 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan per ton. The scrap - to - primary aluminum price differential was 1,545 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 90 yuan per ton [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative imports from January to June were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88%. The monthly import volume is currently increasing year - on - year but has declined significantly month - on - month and is approaching the level of the same period in 2024. Future imports may still be affected by tariff policies [61]. Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.8737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the cumulative output this year was 32.7679 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the cumulative output this year was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. Cost - The domestic spot price of alumina was relatively stable, while the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The latest price of pre - baked anodes was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. Profit - The recent smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum was 16,899 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan per ton. Based on cost calculations and the spot aluminum price, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum was 3,850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 122 yuan per ton [79]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum was 1,533 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week widening of 156 yuan per ton [82]. Inventory - As of August 7, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 566,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons, with no change during the week. The overall inventory increased week - on - week, but the rate of increase slowed significantly during the week, indicating off - season characteristics in the downstream [85]. - In July 2025, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 545,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons. The absolute value is currently at a historically low level, returning to the level of the same period in 2023 [88]. - As of August 7, the domestic inventory of aluminum rods was 138,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons and a decrease of 56,000 tons during the week. The current inventory of aluminum rods remains relatively high compared to the same period in history [91]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China ranged from 20,460 to 20,710 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan per ton. The spot price was quoted against the August contract. The spot price increased with the market, the spot discount widened, and the off - season deepened. The downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was general [94].

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：上周关税方面，美国关税正式落地，将美国的平均进口关税提高到一个世纪以来的最高水平，瑞士、巴西、印度等国家正 在研究应对措施以寻求更有利的协议，国际贸易局势仍然复杂，提高贵金属避险需求。美国发出征收金条关税的消息，随后又进行澄 清，黄金价格短时间内冲高回落。美国非农就业数据疲软，且ISM非制造业PMI数据不及预期，服务业经济疲软，令市场预期美联储9 月降息概率大幅提升，叠加特朗普提名鸽派经济顾问委员会主席担任美联储理事，进一步强化美联储降息预期，对金银价格带来提振 。 资金面：上周C O M E X黄金和白银库存减少；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，中国央行连续第九个月增持黄金；黄金ETF 资金流入有所增加，白银E T F资金流入放缓；上周对冲基金多头增加在黄金的增持力度，白银的非商业净多头头寸略 有减少。总体来看，央行购金趋势延续，黄金E T F投资保持强劲。 策略：美国新一轮关税落地，国际局势不稳推升贵金属避险需求，叠加美联储降息预期显著升温，多重因素利多贵金 属，预计短期偏强运行，但仍需关注关税对市场的扰动。沪金价格长期看多，短期有上行趋势，中期建议持多或高抛低吸； 沪银短 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: This week, the supply - demand structure of steel products continued to weaken. The market sentiment was still volatile due to the continuous speculation of production cuts by Tangshan rolling mills. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position in the short - term and focus on the callback space [5]. - **Iron Ore**: This week, the supply of iron ore was relatively stable, and the demand changed little. The supply - demand structure change was neutral. In the short - term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the decline may be smaller than that of steel products. The recommended strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The spot price of steel products decreased slightly, and the futures market fluctuated. The Shanghai rebar futures contract 10 rose 10 to close at 3213, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 to 3340 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Supply**: The blast furnace operation rate increased slightly, while the EAF production decreased slightly. The total supply of the five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons to 869.21 tons this week. Rebar production increased by 10.12 tons, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons [13][25]. - **Demand**: The demand for building materials decreased, and the demand for plates weakened slightly. The national concrete shipment volume decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. In July, the domestic demand for plates weakened significantly due to the unexpected decline in automobile sales [26][31]. - **Profit**: The profit of long - process production remained high, while the profit of EAF production decreased. The blast furnace profit rate was 68.4%, and the average profit of independent EAF construction steel mills was - 35 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of building materials continued to increase, and the inventory of plates accumulated at an accelerated pace. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons to 1375.36 tons [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis of building materials narrowed significantly, and the basis of plates widened. The rebar 10 basis narrowed by 30 to 117, and the hot - rolled coil basis widened by 23 to 12 [42][44]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread was - 73, and the inversion deepened by 19 compared with last week. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread [45][47]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread widened. The current spread is at a moderately high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity for the 01 spread to narrow [48][50]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The spot price of iron ore fluctuated, and the futures market had a narrow - range movement. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB fines rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [54][56]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased, and the supply from distant sources tightened. The 47 - port arrival volume increased by 303 tons to 2622.4 tons [57][65]. - **Rigid Demand**: The pig iron production decreased slightly, and the demand declined slightly. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with last week [66][68]. - **Speculative Demand**: The port trading volume decreased, and the downstream restocking was weak. The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared with the previous week [69][72]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly. As of August 8, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14267.27 tons, an increase of 45 tons compared with the previous week [73][75]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 74.41 tons to 2756.28 tons [76][78]. - **Shipping**: The shipping freight rates showed mixed trends. The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.31 dollars/ton to 9.98 dollars/ton, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.27 dollars/ton to 24.075 dollars/ton [79][81]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread narrowed, and the futures and spot prices were basically at parity. The 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 9.5 to 16.5, and the 09 contract was at a discount of 3.3 [83][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp market lacks clear guidance, and pulp prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the ongoing deadlock in the supply - demand fundamentals, high port inventories, abundant spot market supplies, no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates, the price of the pulp 2511 contract is predicted to fluctuate between 5110 - 5320 this week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices declined. Among them, broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai decreased by 0.97%, 1.22%, and 1.22% respectively. Chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, natural pulp declined, and sugarcane pulp increased. The chemical mechanical pulp Kun He in Shandong was quoted at 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the natural pulp Jin Xing was quoted at 4900 yuan/ton, down 2.0%; the sugarcane pulp in South China was quoted at 4000 yuan/ton, up 2.56% [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated horizontally within a 100 - point range last week, closing at 5192 yuan/ton on the weekly line, with no change from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 122.0 million lots, a decrease of 49.9 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 29.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 million lots [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The contango of the futures - spot basis widened slightly. The basis contango between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 688 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton wider than the previous week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, up 1.1% from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 12.2 million lots, a decrease of 0.879 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 3.15 million lots, an increase of 0.43 million lots [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week's pulp production was 47.9 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons (0.21%) compared to the previous week. It is expected that the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp will be about 20.7 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.5 tons [21]. - **Weekly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.3%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 86.7%, a decrease of 1.2% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a 2.51% increase compared to the previous month [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp**: In July 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 89.6 tons, a 4.8% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, a decrease of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 91.7 tons, a 2.92% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, an increase of 2.4% [31]. - **Monthly Production Margin of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production margin of broad - leaf pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a 3.87% increase compared to the previous month. The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.0306 million tons, a 0.48% increase compared to the previous month and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 18.5777 million tons, a 4.2% increase compared to the same period last year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 27.86 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons (0.14%) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, a decrease of 0.1% [41]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.28%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, a decrease of 1.3%. Offset paper production was 21 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (6.06%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.0%, an increase of 1.6% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, white cardboard production was 30.7 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (3.02%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.74%, a decrease of 1.94%. Corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a decrease of 0.91 tons (1.93%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.9%, a decrease of 1.22%. Boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons (1.51%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.68%, an increase of 1.32% [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Tissue paper prices remained stable, while cultural paper prices declined. Whiteboard paper and white cardboard prices were basically stable. Corrugated paper prices increased slightly, and boxboard paper prices remained stable [51][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, an increase of 2.33% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, an increase of 1.29% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, an increase of 1.25% compared to the previous month [58][60]. - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the predicted domestic demand was 3.23 million tons, the predicted consumption was 3.215 million tons, and the actual pulp consumption was 3.321 million tons, an increase of 3.94% compared to the previous month and 3.3% compared to the same period last year [64]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (2.71%) compared to the previous week. Among them, Qingdao Port's inventory is 1.385 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.42%); Changshu Port's inventory is 485,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (5.64%); Tianjin Port's inventory is 60,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (3.23%) [67][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 244,200 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.69%) compared to the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 225,000 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.75%) [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks new drivers and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to limited changes in domestic installations, a slight warming in the terminal atmosphere, and a lack of significant contradictions between supply and demand [1][5]. - MEG is in a de - stocking cycle, with limited downside space. The supply - demand structure is relatively optimistic, and it is expected to undergo narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support. As of August 8, the Asian PX closing price was $831.67 per ton CFR China, down $14 per ton from August 1 [17]. - **PX Device Status**: There were no device changes during the week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35%, unchanged from the previous week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.95%, a decrease of 0.03% [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Difference**: As of August 8, the PX - naphtha price difference was $261.2 per ton, up $19.38 per ton from August 1. The downstream market was in the off - season, and the terminal market support was poor, but with the commissioning of new PTA devices, there was an expected increase in demand, resulting in narrow - range fluctuations in the PX - naphtha price difference [23]. 3.2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, some installations in East China were shut down for maintenance or reduced production due to efficiency issues, leading to a significant reduction in overall supply. The terminal was in the traditional off - season, and demand changes were minimal. The supply - demand balance sheet shifted to de - stocking. However, due to the impact of OPEC production increase on crude oil prices, the PTA price center oscillated downward. As of August 8, the PTA spot price was 4,670 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 17 [26]. - **Device Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a decrease of 3.75% compared to the previous week. Multiple installations in East China were shut down or under maintenance, and some enterprises reduced production due to efficiency issues, resulting in a significant reduction in domestic production this period. In August, with the mass production of Hailun Petrochemical and maintenance plans of Tongkun, Yisheng, and Hengli, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA devices may drop to around 74% [29]. - **Processing Fees**: The processing fees of PTA decreased significantly this week due to increased long - term supply pressure, active sales by major producers, and tight supply of raw material PX. With an expected increase in supply and average demand, the supply - demand balance sheet shows narrow - range de - stocking. However, due to efficiency issues, some enterprises reduced production. PTA is expected to rebound at a low valuation, and the processing fees may be slightly repaired [30]. - **Supply - Demand Balance in August**: In August, with the mass production of new PTA devices and multiple planned maintenance installations, and considering the potential reduction in polyester load due to continuous losses, the supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - range balance [33]. 3.3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: At the beginning of the week, influenced by crude oil and macro factors, the price of ethylene glycol declined. However, the de - stocking of supply and demand provided positive support, limiting the market decline. When the price dropped to around 4,450 yuan, it stabilized and rebounded. As of August 8, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4,456 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,480 yuan per ton [39]. - **Device Utilization**: The overall capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 58.28%, a decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 66.47%, an increase of 2.59%. In August, for domestic production, some existing devices will restart and undergo maintenance simultaneously, and the restart of a major factory in Jiangsu is postponed, resulting in a slight increase in overall production [42]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons compared to August 4 and an increase of 5.85 tons compared to July 31. As of August 13, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 10.17 tons, including 3.57 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5.9 tons in Taicang, and 0.7 tons in Jiangyin [45]. - **Processing Profits**: The supply - demand de - stocking logic still exists. After a decline this week, ethylene glycol rebounded. The prices of the raw material market fluctuated, resulting in both increases and decreases in the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process. As of August 8, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $98.67 per ton, a decrease of $14.29 per ton compared to the previous week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 21.33 yuan per ton, a decrease of 93.53 yuan compared to the previous week [48]. 3.4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. After the commissioning of Youshun's new device, the load gradually increased, and Huaya's device restarted after a short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight increase in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will increase slightly next week [51]. - **Terminal Impact on Polyester**: In July, polyester factories were affected by terminal restrictions and poor profit levels, resulting in a decline in the polyester operating rate, but the decline was limited. In August, with both maintenance and restart plans and new device commissioning, but considering the poor demand outlook, it is expected that the monthly polyester production will decline slightly [52]. - **Differentiation in Polyester Product Capacity Utilization**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 90.66%, a 0.85% decrease compared to the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.49%, a 1.81% increase compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.36%, a 1.85% increase compared to the previous week [57]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to pre - replenishment, the factory sales data was average this week, and the finished product inventory increased slightly [58]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased slightly. Polyester products were mostly in a wait - and - see state this week, with limited downward space and partial cash - flow repair [62]. - **Textile Industry Situation**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. In August, the inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but due to high inventory in fabric production factories and sufficient supplies from middlemen, there was no significant improvement in domestic and foreign orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [67]. 3.5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost End**: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support [68]. - **Supply End**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a 3.75% decrease compared to the previous week, and domestic production decreased significantly. The total capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week [69]. - **Demand End**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. The inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but there was no significant improvement in orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [69]. - **Inventory**: PTA was in a de - stocking state this week. As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase compared to the previous period [69].

煤矿供应端扰动持续，焦煤依旧易涨难跌 煤焦周度报告 20250811 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | | | 报告主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 上周盘面再度拉涨，短期易涨难跌；现货第五轮提涨落地、第六轮提涨开启 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利小幅改善，独立焦企供应微增 | | | 需求 | 铁水维持高位，刚需支撑较强；投机货源增加，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量略有改善 | | | 库存 | 港口微增库，钢厂、焦化厂去库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利略有改善，焦炭盘面利润持续回落 | | 焦炭 | 基差价差 | 焦炭01升水扩大，1-5价差震荡走弱 | | | 总结 | 上周煤矿查超产再度发酵，山西部分煤矿收到按276工作日组织生产的通知，焦煤做多情绪不减，再度大幅拉涨，并带动焦炭走强。截至周五收盘，焦 炭01合约涨4.55%至1734，焦煤01合约涨10.04%至1227。焦炭方面，现货五轮提涨落地、六轮提涨开启，原料煤价格趋稳，焦企盈利小幅 ...