该行略微下调今年的博彩收入预测至同比增长8%，仍然看好金沙中国(01928)及银河娱乐(00027)，均 予"买入"评级。另外，预期永利澳门(01128)第三季度业绩将超出预期，或在短期内为其股价带来正面 动力。 高盛发布研报称，10月首12日的总博彩收入同比减少5%，较预期为低，对比本月首5日的博彩收入则同 比增加3%。考虑到台风及前往海外国家旅游等因素，该行认为近期正向趋势已经逆转的论调属言之尚 早。该行相信11及12月至明年2月的同比比较基础仍相当有利。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, while the revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent positive trend in gaming revenue has reversed, but it is too early to make definitive statements due to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The firm slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year increase, while maintaining a positive outlook on Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] Group 2 - Expectations for Wynn Macau (01128) indicate that its third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a 5% year-on-year decrease in total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October, which is lower than expected, while the first 5 days of the month showed a 3% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Trends - The recent positive trend in gaming revenue is considered premature to declare as reversed, influenced by factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November, December, and February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts and Company Ratings - The gaming revenue forecast for this year has been slightly adjusted to an 8% year-on-year growth, with a positive outlook for Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) is expected to exceed third-quarter performance expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Industry Overview - Despite the impact of a super typhoon in late September, Macau's total gaming revenue for the third quarter reached MOP 62.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, marking the highest quarterly gaming revenue since the post-pandemic reopening [1] - The industry EBITDA for the third quarter is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 2.07 billion [1] Company Insights - Citigroup's top pick is Galaxy Entertainment, maintaining a target price of HKD 54 and a "Buy" rating [1] - Wynn Macau's rating has been upgraded to "Buy," with a target price of HKD 7.2; although the company has lost market share this year due to the lack of new product launches, improvements are anticipated with the completion of the Chairman's Club expansion in the VIP gaming area at Wynn Palace in the first quarter of next year [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks have rebounded after a continuous decline, with Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau rising approximately 3%, while Sands China and Melco International Development increased nearly 2%, and MGM China rose about 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, but there was a 3% year-on-year increase compared to the first 5 days of the month [1] - The firm believes that the recent reversal of the positive trend is premature, considering factors such as typhoons and overseas travel, and maintains a favorable year-on-year comparison basis for November through February of the following year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year growth, while remaining optimistic about Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, while revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Trends - The recent trend reversal is considered premature by Goldman Sachs, attributing it to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November and December through February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts - The firm slightly lowered its annual gaming revenue growth forecast to 8% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] Group 3: Company Performance Expectations - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed forecasts, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,441 points, down 1.73%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.62%, dropping below the 6,000-point mark [1][2] - Major technology stocks led the market downturn, with semiconductor stocks also suffering substantial losses [2][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with notable drops including Hua Hong Semiconductor down over 13% and SMIC down over 8% [4][5] - Gold and precious metals stocks also fell sharply, with Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold both dropping over 6% [6] - The gambling sector continued its downward trend, with New World Development down over 8% and Galaxy Entertainment down over 5% [11][12] - Conversely, banking stocks showed resilience, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 6% and China Merchants Bank up over 4% [13][14] - The film and entertainment sector performed well, with Huayi Brothers Media surging nearly 20% [15][16] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 8.603 billion HKD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks despite the market volatility [17] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions may increase market uncertainty, but they remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [19]

Group 1 - UBS report indicates that Macau's average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) over the past week was 593 million MOP, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and a 46% drop compared to the first five days of the National Day Golden Week, which is weaker than the market expectation of 700 million MOP [1] - The report highlights a significant slowdown in Macau's GGR since the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, despite various events taking place over the past weekend, including the NBA China Games [1] - For the month to date, Macau's average daily GGR is 804 million MOP, down 5% year-on-year, suggesting that the remaining 19 days of the month may see an average daily GGR of 707 million MOP based on market forecasts [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA forecast valuation of 8.5 times for next year, which is 0.8 standard deviations below the two-year average [1] - UBS identifies Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment as the preferred stocks within the industry [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gaming stocks continue to decline, with New World Development down 5.19% to HKD 4.75 [1] - Sands China decreased by 4.2%, trading at HKD 18.23 [1] - Galaxy Entertainment fell by 3.56%, now priced at HKD 36.3 [1] - MGM China dropped by 3.39%, currently at HKD 13.97 [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks continue to decline, with New World Development down 5.19% to HKD 4.75, Sands China down 4.2% to HKD 18.23, Galaxy Entertainment down 3.56% to HKD 36.3, and MGM China down 3.39% to HKD 13.97 [1] - According to a report from Credit Lyonnais, the Macau gaming industry is expected to see a year-on-year EBITDA growth of 10% to USD 2.063 billion in Q3, driven by a 12.5% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) [1] - The report indicates that adjusted profit margins will be under pressure, with a projected quarterly decline of 0.5 percentage points due to a 33-hour casino shutdown caused by Typhoon Haikui [1] Group 2 - The focus for the market will be on the resilience of gaming revenue post-Golden Week and the reinvestment activities of gaming companies [1] - The firm has revised its EBITDA forecasts for the industry downwards by 1.4% and 0.5% for this year and next year, respectively, expecting a year-on-year EBITDA increase of 7% to USD 8.2 billion this year and an 8% increase to USD 8.8 billion next year [1] - Additionally, the forecasts for gaming revenue have been adjusted upwards by 0.1% and 1.3% for this year and next year, respectively [1]