智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，根据克而瑞的初步数据，2025年7月全口径销售总额由6月 3707亿元人民币(下同)环比减38.1%至2294亿元。该行追踪的20家主要上市开发商7月销售额环比下降 40.2%，由于季节性因素，销售均价和销售面积分别环比下降21.4%/21.8%。 根据国家统计局公布的70大中城市商品住宅价格指数，6月新建商品住宅价指数同比跌3.7%，环比跌 0.3%，二手商品住宅价格指数较去年同期降6.1%/环比跌0.6%。交银国际预期二级市场的需求将持续改 善并优于一级市场。中长期继续看好华润置地(01109)和越秀地产(00123)，二者评级均为"买入"，这两 家公司在过去几年的销售表现优异，且在销售方面执行能力更强。 近日中央政治局会议提出，"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活预见性"，预计更多政策仍有加力空间， 未来围绕城中村和危旧房改造、"好房子"建设、优化土地供给、强化金融支持等相关政策可望持续推 进。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a significant decline in total sales in July 2025, with a 38.1% month-on-month decrease to 229.4 billion RMB, attributed to seasonal factors affecting sales prices and areas sold [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The total sales amount for July 2025 dropped from 370.7 billion RMB in June, marking a 38.1% decrease [1] - The sales figures for 20 major listed developers tracked by the company fell by 40.2% month-on-month in July [1] - The average sales price and sales area decreased by 21.4% and 21.8% respectively on a month-on-month basis [1] Group 2: Policy Outlook - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with expectations for further policy support in the future [1] - Policies related to urban village and dilapidated housing renovation, construction of "good houses," optimizing land supply, and strengthening financial support are anticipated to continue [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the new commodity residential price index for June showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [1] - The second-hand commodity residential price index fell by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - CMB International expects demand in the secondary market to continue improving and outperform the primary market [1] Group 4: Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123), both rated as "Buy" [1] - These companies have demonstrated strong sales performance over the past few years and possess superior execution capabilities in sales [1]

里昂发布研报称，憧憬明年起越秀地产(00123)销售将逐步回稳，可推动盈利回升，维持其"跑赢大 市"评级。基于其销售表现强韧、融资渠道畅通及土储持续改善，将目标价从4.2港元上调至5.1港元，对 应2025年预测市盈率约14倍。里昂指出，越秀地产近日获批准发行96亿元人民币的公司债券，子公司亦 获授14.5亿港元定期贷款，反映其作为国资内房开发商，仍具有融资优势，该行目前预测越秀地产核心 盈利将于明年恢复增长。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，憧憬明年起越秀地产(00123)销售将逐步回稳，可推动盈利回升， 维持其"跑赢大市"评级。基于其销售表现强韧、融资渠道畅通及土储持续改善，将目标价从4.2港元上 调至5.1港元，对应2025年预测市盈率约14倍。里昂指出，越秀地产近日获批准发行96亿元人民币的公 司债券，子公司亦获授14.5亿港元定期贷款，反映其作为国资内房开发商，仍具有融资优势，该行目前 预测越秀地产核心盈利将于明年恢复增长。 ...

里昂发表研究报告指，憧憬明年起销售将逐步回稳，可推动越秀地产盈利回升，因此维持"跑赢大市"评 级。越秀地产近日获批准发行96亿元的公司债券，子公司亦获授14.5亿港元定期贷款，反映其作为国资 内房开发商，仍具有融资优势。基于其销售表现强韧、融资渠道畅通及土储持续改善，该行将其目标价 从4.2港元上调至5.1港元，对应2025年预测市盈率约14倍。 ...

每经AI快讯，8月11日，港股内房股普遍上涨，龙湖集团、华润置地、融创中国涨2%，建发国际集团、 中国金茂、越秀地产、万科企业、碧桂园、富力地产均涨超1%。 ...

中信建投证券研报指出，北京进一步优化限购和公积金政策，京籍居民及社保或个税满2年的非京籍居 民购买五环外住房不再限制套数；同时无公积金贷款或有1次且已结清的家庭可执行首套公积金贷款政 策，且公积金二套家庭贷款额度由60万元提升至100万元。北京作为一线城市，此次出台楼市新政信号 意义重大，楼市止跌回稳态势有望持续巩固。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00960 | 龙湖集团 | 10.360 | 2.07% | | 01918 | 融创中国 | 1.500 | 2.04% | | 01109 | 华润置地 | 30.380 | 2.01% | | 01908 | 建发国际集团 | 17.420 | 1.46% | | 00817 | 中国余茂 | 1.520 | 1.33% | | 00123 | 越秀地产 | 4.850 | 1.25% | | 02202 | 万科企业 | 5.080 | 1.20% | | 02777 | 富力地产 | 0.880 | 1.15% | | 02007 | 碧桂园 | 0.470 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The overall housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but the recovery of residents' balance sheets may take around two years, leading to a continued downward trend in volume and price [4]. - The report anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing the market will be introduced, with core cities expected to lead the recovery due to healthier supply-demand dynamics [4]. - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities with lower penetration rates [4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 2-8, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 cities totaled 1.758 million square meters, a decrease of 24.3% week-on-week [5]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in August (up to August 8) fell by 14.2% compared to July [5][8]. - The transaction-to-launch ratio for new housing was 1.1 times, indicating a slight increase in inventory absorption [22]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 2-8, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.021 million square meters, down 5.2% week-on-week [14]. - Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year [14]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of August 8, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 89.04 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [22]. - The average months of inventory absorption increased to 20.7 months, indicating a slower pace of sales [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The China Real Estate Association has issued a notice to enhance connections with small and medium-sized real estate companies to support their healthy development [32]. - Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast for new home sales in 2025, reducing the expected decline from 15% to 7% [32]. - Beijing has relaxed purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road and introduced supportive policies for first-time homebuyers [32][33]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales for July, with notable declines: - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a monthly sales figure of 11.9 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year [4]. - Greentown China announced a projected 90% decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. - Huafa Group's convertible bond application has been approved by the regulatory authority [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy changes in Beijing, which relax restrictions on home purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road, are expected to aid in inventory reduction in suburban areas, although the overall impact may be limited [11][12]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a key focus for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land management and disposal of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Changes - Beijing's new policy allows residents with two years of social security contributions to purchase homes without quantity restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, differing from other cities that have fully lifted purchase limits [11][12]. 2. Market Review - The real estate index increased by 2.2% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.93 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 120.5 million square meters, down 35.0% month-on-month and 19.3% year-on-year [22]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities totaled 171.1 million square meters, down 7.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [32]. 3. Credit Market - A total of 22 corporate bonds were issued this week, raising 228.70 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 159.94 billion yuan [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, including both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation period, leading to significant personnel adjustments as companies adapt to a new competitive landscape [1][2][3] - From January to July 2025, over 50 executive changes occurred within real estate companies, with a notable focus on the marketing sector due to its direct impact on performance and market responsiveness [1][2][3] - Companies are increasingly hiring versatile talents who possess both product design and marketing experience to enhance the synergy between product development and marketing efforts [1][7][8] Executive Changes - Major real estate firms, including Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Merchants Shekou, have experienced significant executive turnover, particularly in city management roles [2][3] - China Overseas has entered a phase of frequent executive changes, with multiple city managers being reassigned in June 2025 [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, 31 out of 65 monitored real estate companies executed 47 executive changes, with a notable increase in adjustments during the second quarter [3][4] Marketing Sector Focus - The "Chief Marketing Officer" position has seen increased turnover due to performance pressures and strategic shifts, with companies like China Jinmao and China Overseas consolidating marketing functions at headquarters [5][6] - China Overseas reported a significant decline in sales and profits, with its Northern region's sales halving from 911.2 billion to 559.4 billion yuan, prompting leadership changes [5][6] - The departure of key marketing executives often correlates with underperformance, as these roles are critical for driving revenue growth [6][7] Strategic Adjustments - Companies are streamlining their organizational structures and enhancing management capabilities to adapt to the evolving market landscape [4][7] - The integration of product and marketing functions is becoming a common practice among real estate firms to meet the rising demand for quality and differentiation in products [7][8] - The shift towards a focus on product quality is essential as the new home market transitions from a demand-driven phase to one centered on improvement needs [8]