交银国际研究 公司更新 内地房地产 2024 年 8 月 13 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 4.45 港元 6.60↓ +48.3% 越秀地产 (123 HK) 上半年业绩预览：料毛利率受压，下调目标价 2024 上半年料毛利率将降至 13 – 14%：我们认为房地产开发商的 2024 上 半年业绩毛利率和任何有关调整销售目标的指引都是最为关键的指标，因 为收入受具体项目交付进度的影响更大。我们预计越秀地产 2024 上半年 的毛利率将降至 13 – 14%，与我们全年预测之 13.5%相若。 可能下调销售目标：我们预计越秀地产 2024 上半年合同销售额为 554 亿 元（人民币，下同），同比降 33.8%，仅占全年销售目标 1,470 亿元的 37.7 %。同时，我们预计越秀地产可能会修改其全年销售目标。我们预期 越秀 2024 全年合同销售额为 1,160-1,200 亿元。 物管业务收入增长超过 20%：受惠于过去越秀地产销售增长以及交付稳 定，加上外托项目交付，我们预计物管服务渠道项目转化至在管项目可带 动物管收入同比增长维持 20 %以上。 下调收入及利润预测：我们下调了 2024 和 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuexiu Property [4][12]. Core Views - Guangzhou Assets plans to increase its stake in Yuexiu Property by up to 2%, with a total investment not exceeding 556.5 million RMB, which is approximately 369 million RMB based on recent stock prices [2][3]. - The acquisition aims to strengthen shareholder relations and explore a "bad asset + real estate" business model, leveraging the strategic investment to enhance cooperation [2][3]. - Yuexiu Property has shown resilience, being the only company in the top 30 to maintain positive sales growth since the market downturn in 2021, supported by strong land reserves and favorable policies [2][3]. - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 3.5 billion RMB in 2024 and 4 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10% and 14% respectively, with a reasonable valuation target of 9.12 HKD per share [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 80.22 billion RMB in 2023 to 93.56 billion RMB in 2024, representing an 11% increase [3][9]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3.18 billion RMB, with a forecasted increase to 3.50 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a 10% growth [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.79 RMB in 2023 to 0.87 RMB in 2024 [3][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.5x in 2024 and 5.7x in 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The major shareholder plans to increase their stake in the company, indicating strong confidence in its intrinsic value [4][5] - Despite a decline in sales, the company has improved its industry ranking, focusing investments on core first and second-tier cities [4][5] - The company is classified as a green enterprise, maintaining low financing costs while actively expanding [4][5] Financial Summary - The company reported a sales amount of 30.01 billion yuan from January to April 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5%, with a sales area of 1.023 million square meters, down 38.7% [4] - The company achieved a total sales target completion of 20.4% for the year [4] - The company acquired five land parcels in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hefei, with a total investment of 7.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48% [4] - The company's land reserve at the end of 2023 was 25.67 million square meters, distributed across 29 cities [4] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 3.20 billion yuan, 3.54 billion yuan, and 3.91 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 for 2024 and 5.5 for 2025 [5][6] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 80.22 billion yuan in 2023 to 91.85 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14.5% [6][8] - The net profit is expected to slightly increase from 3.18 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.20 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a minimal growth rate of 0.6% [6][8]

越秀地產股份有限公司 YUEXIU PROPERTY COMPANY LIMITED 股份代號 : 00123 年報 2023 ● IIIm himmann Prister o 成 就 美好生活 /1 H 1000 000 10000 - - P 1:40 3 un In I 目錄 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------| | | | | 董事簡介 | 61 | | 企業管治報告 | 65 | | 董事會報告 | 77 | | 風險管理報告 | 98 | | 獨立核數師報告 | 109 | | 綜合損益表 | 115 | | 綜合全面收入表 | 116 | | 綜合財務狀況表 | 117 | | 綜合權益變動表 | 119 | | 綜合現金流量表 | 121 | | 綜合財務報表附註 | 124 | | 集團架構 | 223 | 公司架構 2 公司資料 3 財務摘要 4 企業可持續發展 6 二○二三年大事記 10 董事長報告 13 管理層討論及分析 24 物業發展 46 投資者關係報告 58 榮譽及獎項 60 43.39% 37.89% 66.92% 100% 廣州 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - Revenue growth is stable with consistent dividends, but profit margins and impairment losses have negatively impacted performance. In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 80.22 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.19 billion RMB, down 19.4% year-on-year. The core net profit was 3.49 billion RMB, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute dividends of 1.4 billion RMB, maintaining a payout ratio of 40% of core net profit [11][12]. - Sales have shown positive growth for two consecutive years, with a strong investment focus on core cities. The total sales amount reached 142 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, achieving 108% of the sales target. The company improved its national ranking to 12th, with sales in first-tier cities accounting for 62%, an increase of 10 percentage points from 2022 [19][21]. - The company has seen a significant increase in interest-bearing debt, with a total of 104.4 billion RMB at the end of 2023, up 18% year-on-year. The weighted average financing cost improved to 3.82%, falling below 4% for the first time [11][12]. - Profit forecasts indicate steady growth in sales and revenue, with net profit projected at 3.5 billion RMB and 4 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 10% and 14%. The report assigns a reasonable valuation of 0.6 times the net asset value at the end of 2023, translating to a target price of 9.14 HKD per share [11][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth and Dividend Stability - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 80.22 billion RMB, a 10.8% increase year-on-year. However, net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 3.19 billion RMB, a 19.4% decline, with core net profit at 3.49 billion RMB, down 17.5% [11][12]. Sales Performance and Investment Focus - The company achieved total sales of 142 billion RMB, marking a 14% increase and surpassing its target by 8%. The sales in first-tier cities rose to 62%, reflecting a strategic focus on high-potential urban areas [19][21]. Debt and Financing Cost - Interest-bearing debt reached 104.4 billion RMB, an 18% increase from the previous year. The financing cost improved to 3.82%, indicating better financial management [11][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Future profit estimates suggest a net profit of 3.5 billion RMB in 2024 and 4 billion RMB in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 4.6x and 4.0x. The target price is set at 9.14 HKD per share based on a valuation of 0.6 times the net asset value [11][12].

Group 1: Company Performance - Yuexiu Property ranked 9th in the "2024 Comprehensive Strength Evaluation of Real Estate Development Enterprises," marking a rise of 5 places from the previous year and entering the top ten for the first time [1] - In 2023, Yuexiu Property achieved a contract sales amount of RMB 142 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, the highest growth rate among the top 20 real estate companies [1] - As of the end of 2023, Yuexiu Property's land reserves in first and second-tier cities accounted for 95%, enhancing its ability to navigate market cycles [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The company maintains a dual development strategy of commercial and residential properties, with a national presence in over 30 core cities [1] - Yuexiu Property emphasizes high-quality product development, integrating modern concepts such as green, low-carbon, and smart living into its projects [2][3] - The company has launched a series of high-end residential products targeting high-end consumers, showcasing its commitment to quality and innovation [3] Group 3: Financial Health - As of December 31, 2023, Yuexiu Property reported cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately RMB 46.1 billion, indicating strong liquidity [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio, and cash short-term debt ratio were 67.4%, 57.0%, and 2.01 times, respectively, maintaining a "green" status under the "three red lines" policy [3] - Yuexiu Property's average borrowing cost decreased by 34 basis points year-on-year to 3.82%, positioning it favorably within the industry [3]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年04月10日 越秀地产（00123.HK） 多元拿地聚焦核心城市，销售增速领先行业 营收维持增长，业绩受结转结构及减值计提有所下滑。公司2023年实现 买入（维持） 主营业务收入802.2亿元（同比+10.8%，下同）；归母净利润31.9亿元 股票信息 （-19.4%）；核心净利润34.9亿元（-17.5%）。毛利率15.3%（-5.2pct）； 归母净利率4.0%（-1.5pct）。公司业绩有所下滑主要是（1）低毛利率项 行业 地产发展商 目进入结转以及继续进行减值计提导致毛利率有所下滑；（2）两项投资 前次评级 买入 性物业重估产生约13.7亿元的亏损。公司目前已售未结金额1993亿元， 4月9日收盘价(港元) 4.05 充足的资源带动营收继续增长的同时，也将一定程度对冲毛利率下行对业 总市值(百万港元) 16,302.84 绩的影响，且随着往年低毛利率项目的逐步出清，公司业绩有望企稳回升。 总股本(百万股) 4,025.39 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 债券融资渠道畅通，财务稳健流动性无忧。期内公司成功发行境内债合计 30日日均成交量(百万股) 12.1 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 越秀地产（0123）公司年报点评 2024年04月09日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 合同销售金额稳步增长，财务稳健安全 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 0[4Ta月b0le8_日S收to盘ck价In（fo港] 元） 4.06 投资要点： 52周股价波动（港元） 3.97-11.87 总股本（百万股） 4025 总市值（亿港元） 163  经营业绩基本保持平稳。2023年，公司实现营业收入人民币802.2亿元，同 相关研究 比+10.8%；归母净利润人民币31.85亿元，同比-19.4%。截至2023年末， [《Ta越b秀le地_R产e（p 0o 1r 2t 3In .Hfo K]） 首次覆盖报告：四十 公司毛利率和归母净利润分别为15.28%和3.97%，同比分别-5.17个百分点 和-1.49个百分点。董事会建议宣派2023年末期股息每股0.148港元，连同 年坚实沉淀，双国资能力加持》2023.11.12 中期股息，23年全年派息每股0.380港元，派息总额约占核心净利润的40%。 ...

2024年4月7日 公司研究 积极调仓核心土储，销售保持增长信心 ——越秀地产（0123.HK）动态跟踪 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：4.01港元 事件：23 年，公司实现营收 802 亿元，核心归母净利润 35 亿元。据克而瑞数 据，24年Q1公司实现全口径销售额217亿元，居克而瑞销售榜第十名。 作者 点评：23年增收未增利，24年销售保持逆势增长信心，土储优质，财务稳健。 分析师：何缅南 23年增收未增利，毛利率延续下滑：2023年，公司实现营收802亿元，同比上 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 升 10.8%，其中房地产开发业务实现营收 752 亿元，同比增长 9.4%（截至 23 021-52523801 hemiannan@ebscn.com 年末，公司已售未结销售额1993亿元，同比增长11.3%，未来结算储备较充足）； 公司实现归母净利润 31.9 亿元，同比减少 19.4%，其中核心归母净利润 34.9 联系人：庄晓波 亿元，同比减少17.5%，主要因公司整体毛利率同比进一步下滑5.2pct至15.3% 021-52523416 （毛利率下滑因低毛利项目结转、计提存货减值 15 ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月3日 00123.HK 越秀地产 买入 在手现金同比增幅超过三成；2024 年销售目标 原评级：买入 1470 亿元 市场价格:港币 4.31 板 块评级:强于大市 摘要：越秀地产公布 2023 年年报，2023 年公司实现主营业务营业收入 802.2 亿元，同比增长 10.8%；归母净利润31.9亿元，同比下降19.4%；核心净利润34.9亿元，同比下降17.5%。2023 年派息每股0.347元人民币，派息比例为40%，与去年持平。  营收规模稳步增长，在结算利润率下滑、投资物业重估价值下跌的影响下，业绩同比负增长。2023年公司主营业务营业 收入同比增长10.8%，主要是因为房地产开发业务竣工结算规模增长，2023年公司竣工面积同比大幅增长37.9%。2023 股价表现 年公司归母净利润同比下降19.4%，主要是因为：1）结算利润率下滑，2023年公司毛利率为15.3%，同比下滑5.1个百 分点。2）其他经营净亏损13.48亿元（2022年为净收益2.11亿元），主要包括投资物业2023年重估净跌值15.02亿元 （主要包括广州萝岗项目及陈头岗 ...