港股内房股走强，融创中国(01918.HK)涨超10%，富力地产(02777.HK)涨超9%，世茂集团(00813.HK)、 越秀地产(00123.HK)、龙湖集团(00960.HK)等跟涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company has secured a total of HKD 650 million in term loans from two banks, reflecting its strong financing capabilities as a state-owned developer in Guangzhou [1]. - Revenue for 2024 reached CNY 86.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, while core net profit significantly declined by 54.4% to CNY 1.59 billion due to impairment losses [1][2]. - The company has a robust land bank, with a total area of 19.71 million square meters across 25 cities, primarily in first and second-tier cities [2]. - The financing cost has improved, with a weighted average borrowing rate of 3.49% for 2024, down 33 basis points year-on-year [3]. - The company projects revenue growth of 1.2% to CNY 87.4 billion in 2025, with a target of CNY 120.5 billion in sales [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financing and Loans - The company has successfully signed term loans totaling HKD 650 million, indicating continued access to financing [1]. - The weighted average borrowing rate has decreased to 3.49%, showcasing improved financing costs [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 86.4 billion, a 7.7% increase from the previous year [1]. - Core net profit fell to CNY 1.59 billion, a decline of 54.4%, primarily due to significant impairment losses totaling CNY 39 billion [1][4]. Land Bank and Sales - The company holds a land bank of 19.71 million square meters, with a focus on major cities, and has added 24 new land parcels in 2024 [2]. - Sales volume decreased by 12% to 3.92 million square meters, with sales revenue down 19% to CNY 115.4 billion [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth of 1.2% in 2025, with a sales target of CNY 120.5 billion, indicating expectations of market stabilization [2][4]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are CNY 87.4 billion, CNY 91.4 billion, and CNY 97.0 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12X, 9X, and 7X [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Views - The company has successfully secured a total of HKD 650 million in term loans from two banks, reflecting its strong financing capabilities as a state-owned developer in Guangzhou [1]. - Despite a 54.4% year-on-year decline in core net profit to CNY 1.59 billion due to impairment losses, the company reported a 7.7% increase in revenue to CNY 86.4 billion for 2024 [1][2]. - The company has a robust land bank of 19.71 million square meters, primarily located in first- and second-tier cities, which supports its future sales and revenue growth [2]. - The financing costs have been optimized, with a weighted average borrowing rate of 3.49% for 2024, down 33 basis points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 86.4 billion, a 7.7% increase from the previous year, while the gross margin decreased to 10.5%, down 4.8 percentage points [1][4]. - The core net profit for 2024 was CNY 1.59 billion, a significant drop of 54.4% due to impairment provisions totaling CNY 2.27 billion for development properties and CNY 1.63 billion for long-term assets [1]. Land Bank and Sales - As of the end of 2024, the company added 24 plots of land with a total construction area of approximately 2.71 million square meters, bringing its total land bank to 19.71 million square meters across 25 cities [2]. - The sales area for 2024 was 3.92 million square meters, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with sales revenue of CNY 115.4 billion, down 19% [2]. Financing and Cost Structure - The company has diversified its financing channels, successfully issuing a total of CNY 2.5 billion in bonds and debt instruments at competitive rates [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of CNY 87.4 billion, CNY 91.4 billion, and CNY 97.0 billion, representing growth rates of 1.2%, 4.6%, and 6.1% respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 12X, 9X, and 7X, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings are expected to recover [4].

4月7日，越秀地产（0123.HK）发布公告称，今年1—3月，公司累计合同销售金额约308.27亿元，同比 增长42%，其中于3月份实现合同销售额180亿元，同比增长58.7%。 上海静安天玥项目开盘即售罄，销售额达23亿元；北京海淀和樾望雲、和樾玉鳴双盘同日开盘，当日成 交额152亿元，成交套数超1000套，开盘去化率超90%；广州"广府系"珑悦西关、熙悦江湾等项目吸引 上千人购买……2025年开局，越秀地产在多地楼市掀起的热浪，将这家"稳健派"房企推到了行业中突出 的位置。 2024年业绩公告显示，报告期内，越秀地产实现合同销售额1145.4亿元。根据克而瑞统计，越秀地产位 列2024年房企销售排行榜第八位。公告显示，一线城市在报告期内销售贡献超过五成，有力支撑了越秀 地产2024年的经营业绩。 事实上，房地产行业进入深度调整期的这些年，土地市场亦呈现明显分化格局。一线城市和核心二线城 市由于市场潜力大、投资吸引力强，销售表现较好，头部房企扎堆一线城市拿地、卷产品。越秀地产亦 不例外，且因长期深耕北上广，其在当前市场环境下优势愈发凸显。 "销售力"表现不俗背后，越秀地产近年坚定践行"四好企业"战略，把"产 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月09日 越秀地产（00123.HK） 优于大市 业绩承压，销售目标积极 归母净利润-67%。2024 年公司实现营业收入 864 亿元，同比增长 8%；归母 净利润 10 亿元，同比下降 67%；核心净利润 16 亿元，同比下降 54%。公司 增收不增利的是由于结算毛利率约为 10.5%，同比下降 4.8pct，且公司计提 存货减值共计 23 亿元。 土储充沛，销售目标积极。2024 年公司实现销售面积 392 万平方米，同比下 降 12%；实现销售金额 1154 亿元，同比下降 12%，完成全年销售目标的 78%。 分区域看，公司大湾区、华东、中西部、北方地区销售占比分别为 43%、29%、 17%、11%。公司 2025 年可售货值 2354 亿元，销售目标 1205 亿元，若完成 则全年销售将同比增长 5%。2024 年新增 24 幅土地，总建筑面积约 271 万平 方米，其中 71%位于一线城市。截至 2024 年末，公司总土储 1971 万平方米， 其中大湾区占比 37%，一二线占比 96%，在建项目占比 69%，土储结构保持优 质。 财务稳健，融资渠道畅通。公司财 ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 公司研究 聚焦核心城市，销售保持增长信心 ——越秀地产（0123.HK）动态跟踪 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年业绩公告和 2025 年 1-3 月销售资料。 点评： 开发业务结算放量，毛利率下滑明显：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 864 亿元， 同比增长 7.7%，营收增长主要受房地产开发业务结算收入增长带动，年内房地 产开发业务实现营收 806 亿元，同比增长 7.2%；公司综合毛利率为 10.5%，同 比下降 4.8pct，主要因计提 22.7 亿元存货减值损失（同比增长 44.4%）及前期 低毛利项目集中结算等影响；公司归母净利润 10.4 亿元，同比下降 67.3%，其 中核心归母净利润为 15.9 亿元，同比下降 54.4%，主要受毛利率下降等影响。 截至 2024 年末，公司已售未结销售额约 1701 亿元，同比下降 14.7%，合同负 债覆盖营收 0.97 倍，预计后续开发业务结算增速或有所放缓。 2024 市场排名提升，2025 销售保持增长信心：2024 年，公司实现销售额 1145 亿元，同比下降 19.4%，年度销售首次进入全国前 10，位列第 8， ...

Summary of Yuexiu Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuexiu Property - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points 2024 Performance - **Sales Performance**: In 2024, Yuexiu Property's sales decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, totaling 114.5 billion yuan, outperforming the average decline of 24% among the top 100 developers in China, achieving a ranking of 8th nationally [2][3] - **Focus on High-Energy Cities**: The company concentrated investments in high-energy cities, with over 80% of investments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, and over 70% of new land reserves in first-tier cities [2][3] 2025 Sales Goals and Outlook - **Sales Target**: For 2025, the sales target is set at 120.5 billion yuan, representing a growth of approximately 5.2% [4] - **Available Resources**: The total available resources are estimated at 235.4 billion yuan, with about half located in the Greater Bay Area [4] - **Construction Plans**: Plans include starting construction on 2.73 million square meters and completing 7.78 million square meters [4] Financial Health - **Cash Flow**: The company reported a net operating cash inflow of 21.7 billion yuan in 2024, with year-end cash reserves exceeding 50 billion yuan, marking an 8.6% increase [5] - **Debt Management**: Yuexiu Property maintains a net debt ratio of 51.7%, with a weighted average financing cost reduced to 3.49% [5] Long-term Strategy - **Sustainable Development**: The company emphasizes long-termism and aims to build a "Four Good Enterprises" model, focusing on good products, brands, services, and teams [6] Q1 2025 Performance - **Sales Growth**: In Q1 2025, sales increased by approximately 41% year-on-year, with a national ranking improvement to 7th place, particularly strong performance in the Beijing market [7] Investment Strategy - **Investment Goals**: The company aims for a total equity investment of 30 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on eight core cities [9] - **Profitability Standards**: Investment standards include a projected net profit margin of 6%-8% and an internal rate of return (IRR) typically around 20% [10] Inventory Management - **Dynamic Gross Margin**: The current dynamic gross margin is estimated at 13%-15%, reflecting sales from properties acquired in the past two years [11] - **Old Inventory Strategy**: A dedicated team has been established to manage slow-moving projects, with flexible pricing strategies based on regional demand [13][15] Land Acquisition and Government Relations - **Land Recovery**: The company successfully recovered approximately 12 billion yuan from the government for undeveloped land, which will be used to acquire higher-quality land [16] - **Government Cooperation**: Strong relationships with local governments facilitate smoother negotiations regarding land and inventory management [17] Future Profitability and Dividends - **Profit Margin Expectations**: The company anticipates a gross margin of no less than 10% for 2025, with expectations for improvement in 2026 and 2027 [19][24] - **Dividend Policy**: The dividend policy aims to distribute 30%-40% of core net profits, maintaining a payout ratio of 44% for the past year [25] Market Conditions - **Market Dynamics**: The real estate market is experiencing significant differentiation, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities face challenges [9][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Yuexiu Property's performance, strategic focus, and outlook in the real estate sector.

进入4月，越秀地产继续在一线城市"攻城略地"。 继以底价2.54亿元拿下杭州临安区锦城单元LA040301-27地块后，4月1日，越秀地产再以总价11.01亿元 竞得杭州原运河新城单元GS1004-08-1地块。两宗地块累计斥资13.55亿元。 此前2月，越秀地产联合华润置地以50.9亿元成功竞得浦东新区新杨思地块，成交楼面地价为7.47万平方 米，溢价率33.4%。据公告披露，越秀地产于该宗地块实际应占利益为51.00%。 以及1月底，越秀地产在广州大本营竞得海珠区新侨地块，实际应占利益为95.48%，涉及实际权益的土 地价款约8.39亿元。 按照越秀地产的铺排，2025年总体投资目标为300亿元，重点聚焦在北上广深一线城市，以及杭州、成 都等强二线城市，以"换仓"来完成今年1205亿元的销售目标。 然而，规模扩张的同时，利润承压也是困扰越秀地产的难题。2025年，越秀地产趋向何方？ 据2024年财报，公司去年核心净利润约15.9亿元，同比下降54.4%；权益持有人应占盈利约10.4亿元， 同比下降67.3%；毛利率约10.5%，同比下降4.8个百分点。 | . | 董事會建議不予分派二〇二四年末期股息,全 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Property is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on the shift in the real estate market from a focus on speed to a focus on quality, aiming to lead in the "good housing" segment as new regulations are introduced [1][4][7] Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - In 2024, Yuexiu Property achieved a revenue of approximately 86.4 billion yuan and a contract sales amount of about 114.5 billion yuan, ranking eighth in the industry [2] - The company has successfully launched several projects in major cities, with notable sales performances, such as the Guangzhou Pazhou South TOD project generating a sales volume of 8.6 billion yuan [2] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 120.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the previous year [4] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - Yuexiu Property has introduced the "4×4 good product concept," focusing on four key attributes: quality, warmth, intelligence, and growth, to enhance its product offerings [3] - The company emphasizes that "good products" are dynamic and evolve based on deep insights into urban, land, and customer needs [3] Group 3: Financial Health and Investment Strategy - As of the end of 2024, Yuexiu Property maintained a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.1% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% [5] - The company successfully issued bonds totaling 2.5 billion yuan domestically and 2.39 billion yuan in offshore markets, with a weighted average borrowing cost of 3.49%, positioning it favorably within the industry [5] - In 2024, Yuexiu Property acquired 24 premium land parcels with a total construction area of approximately 2.71 million square meters, focusing on first-tier and strong second-tier cities [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Plans - The company is committed to a strategy of "investment to promote stability," focusing on eight strategically important cities and enhancing investment management to secure high-quality land [6][7] - With the ongoing transformation in the real estate market, Yuexiu Property is poised to enhance its market competitiveness through improved product and service quality [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][14] Core Views - The company has shown revenue growth but experienced a significant decline in profit due to pressure on gross margins. The investment strategy is diversified and focuses on high-energy cities, with progress in TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) and urban renewal projects. The company has sufficient unrecognized revenue, and a recovery in performance is expected [6][7][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 86.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.3% year-on-year. The gross margin was 10.48%, down by 4.80 percentage points, and the net margin was 1.70%, down by 3.99 percentage points [7][10]. - The company had cash on hand of 50.05 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 8.6% from the beginning of the year, and declared a final dividend of 0.189 HKD per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 44% of core net profit [7][10]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company reported a contract sales amount of 114.54 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.4% year-on-year, but its sales ranking improved to 8th place. The Greater Bay Area and Guangzhou accounted for 42.7% and 37.9% of sales, respectively. By the end of 2024, the company had unrecognized sales amounting to 170.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7% from the beginning of the year [8][10]. - In 2024, the company acquired 24 plots of land across 8 cities, with a total construction area of 2.71 million square meters, over 70% of which were in first-tier cities. The total land reserve by the end of 2024 was 19.71 million square meters, with significant portions in the Greater Bay Area and East China [8][10]. Strategic Developments - The company has deepened its strategy of integrating commercial and residential developments, achieving a rental income of 668 million yuan from directly held commercial properties, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%. The company maintained a green status under the "three red lines" policy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.1% and a weighted average borrowing cost reduced by 33 basis points to 3.49% [9][10].