合併資產負債表 （續） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或 因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 青島啤酒股份有限公司 （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 之 中 外 合 資 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份編號：168） 2024年度業績公告 青島啤酒股份有限公司（「本公司」或「公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此公告本公司及其附屬公 司（「本集團」）截至2024年12月31日止年度（「報告期」）的初步綜合業績，該綜合業績摘錄自 按照中國企業會計準則編製並已經審計的本集團合併財務報表。 一、財務資料 （除特別註明外，金額單位為人民幣元） 合併資產負債表 | 資產 | | 2024年 | 2023年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 附註 | 12月31日 | 12月31日 | | 流動資產 | | | | | 貨幣資金 | | 17,978,772,896 | 19,282,104,642 | | 交易性金融資產 | | 2,02 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Tsingtao Brewery-H (168 HK) with a target price of HK$56.20 [2][4] - The target price represents a 7% upside from the current price of HK$52.55 [3] - The rating was downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" due to a weaker macro environment and lower growth expectations [4][10] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's sales decline is expected to narrow in 4Q24, with a projected year-on-year drop of 2.7%, compared to a 5.1% drop in 3Q24 [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs, with a 1.6% year-on-year decline in cost per ton [8] - Adjusted net loss is expected to narrow slightly to RMB 625 million in 4Q24 from RMB 714 million in 4Q23, driven by better gross margins and operating expense control [8] - The new chairman is expected to continue the current strategy, focusing on efficiency improvement and margin expansion [9] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a single-digit rate in 2025, with free cash flow increasing from RMB 1.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.6 billion in 2024, providing room for shareholder returns [9] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 29.527 billion, a 6.4% decline from 2023A, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 3.0% to RMB 30.418 billion [12] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 3.16, a 3% decline from the previous estimate of RMB 3.25 [4] - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to grow by 7.7% to RMB 4.662 billion, with free cash flow increasing significantly [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 35.9% in 2024E and 36.2% in 2025E, driven by stable raw material prices [15] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The target price of HK$56.20 is based on a 7.6x 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with global peers [10] - Tsingtao Brewery-H's 2025E P/E ratio of 14.3x is comparable to its domestic peers, such as China Resources Beer (12.2x) and Budweiser APAC (13.9x) [16] - The company's 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.9x is slightly lower than the global peer average of 7.6x [16] Market and Industry Outlook - The domestic beer market is expected to stabilize, with Tsingtao Brewery's sales volume projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025, while the average price per ton is expected to increase by 2.0% [9] - The government is expected to continue introducing consumption stimulus plans to aid market recovery [9] - Competition in the high-end beer market may ease, potentially benefiting Tsingtao Brewery's revenue growth [23] Key Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were lowered by 1.8%/3.1%/3.1% due to weaker-than-expected domestic consumption recovery [14] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were revised down by 2.8%/7.1%/6.9% [15] - Gross margin forecasts for 2025E/2026E were reduced by 1.0/0.9 percentage points, reflecting lower-than-expected price growth [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Qingdao Beer, as a leading beer company in China, is expected to see revenue exceed expectations due to multiple catalysts including policy-driven consumption recovery, inventory destocking in 2024, potential management changes, and the recovery of the dining sector [2][3] - The recovery of the dining chain is highly certain, with expectations for volume and price to rise from a low base in 2025 [2] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a management change, which may bring more positive initiatives and goals [3] Summary by Sections Sales and Price Drivers - Volume: The recovery of the dining chain driven by consumption vouchers is expected to lead to sales exceeding expectations, particularly in the 6-10 RMB price range [3] - Price: The upgrade in the 6-10 RMB price range is expected to continue, with room for further price increases as Qingdao Beer has positioned its classic products at the 8 RMB price point [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth rates are projected at 6.05% for 2024, 3.18% for 2025, and 3.22% for 2026 [4] - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 1.27% for 2024, 11.26% for 2025, and 9.77% for 2026 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.17, 3.52, and 3.87 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target valuation for Qingdao Beer H shares is based on a 70% discount to the A-share valuation of 25x, with the current discount at approximately 63.7%, indicating high elasticity [4] - The report maintains that the current valuation offers good value for investment [4]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the third quarter was RMB 8,890,980,567, a decrease of 5.28% compared to the same period last year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1,348,236,830, down 9.03% year-on-year[3] - The revenue from high-end products increased by 0.49%, contributing to a total revenue of RMB 28.96 billion for the first three quarters, which is a 1.67% increase year-on-year[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 4,686,182,141, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.96%[4] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 6,230,708,571, an increase of 22.55% year-on-year[3] Sales and Market Strategy - The cumulative product sales for the first three quarters reached 6.785 million kiloliters, with the main brand "Tsingtao Beer" accounting for 3.835 million kiloliters[4] - The company has increased its market sales expenses and promotional efforts to actively explore new markets amid a sluggish domestic beer market[4] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 50,371,239,687, an increase of 2.26% from the previous year[3] - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased by 8.55% to RMB 29,797,280,806 compared to the previous year[3] Shareholder Information - The largest shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing (Agent) Limited, holds 614,001,319 shares, representing 45.01% of total shares[7] - Qingdao Beer Group Limited holds 443,467,655 shares, accounting for 32.51% of total shares, with no restricted shares[7] - The top ten shareholders collectively hold significant stakes, with the smallest among them, China Construction Bank, holding 5,456,400 shares, or 0.40%[8] - The total number of unrestricted circulating shares held by the top ten unrestricted shareholders is 614,001,319 shares[8] - Qingdao Beer Group's holdings include 405,132,055 shares of RMB ordinary shares and 38,335,600 shares of overseas listed foreign shares[9] - The company has not disclosed any known relationships or concerted actions among the top ten shareholders[9] Governance and Compliance - The company’s board of directors includes several key executives, ensuring governance and oversight[12] - As of September 30, 2024, the company has not audited its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, which are available on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website[12] - The report indicates no participation in margin financing and securities lending by Qingdao Beer Group during the reporting period[9] - China Construction Bank and China Industrial Bank have exited the securities lending business, resulting in zero shares lent out at the end of the reporting period[10] Performance Metrics - The weighted average return on net assets decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 4.63%[3]

Financial Position - As of June 30, 2024, total assets reached RMB 52.81 billion, an increase from RMB 49.26 billion as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of approximately 5.2%[2] - Current assets totaled RMB 31.80 billion, up from RMB 29.61 billion, indicating a growth of about 7.4%[2] - Total liabilities amounted to RMB 23.59 billion, compared to RMB 21.00 billion, marking an increase of around 12.3%[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company rose to RMB 28.39 billion from RMB 27.45 billion, showing an increase of about 3.4%[4] - As of June 30, 2024, total shareholders' equity amounted to RMB 16,348,128,723, a decrease from RMB 16,702,249,600 at the beginning of the year[14] Revenue and Profitability - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 20,068,307,930, a decrease of 7.06% compared to RMB 21,591,789,633 in the same period of 2023[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased to RMB 3,641,652,772, up 6.31% from RMB 3,425,652,286 in the first half of 2023[5] - The company reported a total profit of RMB 4,909,634,563, which is an increase of 6.63% from RMB 4,604,120,036 in the same period last year[5] - Total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was RMB 3,721,343,256, an increase from RMB 3,487,105,492 in the same period last year[6] Cash Flow - Total cash inflow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 21,463,081,709, a slight decrease of 1.06% compared to RMB 21,693,753,265 in the same period of 2023[7] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased to RMB 5,713,872,510, up 24.2% from RMB 4,600,493,439 year-on-year[7] - Cash outflow from investing activities totaled RMB 12,020,320,545, an increase of 24.0% compared to RMB 9,673,707,119 in the first half of 2023[9] - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,959,172,830, down from RMB 13,366,555,181 at the end of June 2023[9] Expenses - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 29,405,848, an increase of 32.83% compared to RMB 22,160,455 in the first half of 2023[5] - Financial expenses increased to RMB (290,996,043), compared to RMB (223,129,607) in the first half of 2023, indicating a rise in interest expenses[5] - The company’s sales expenses decreased to RMB 2,169,269,528, down 9.15% from RMB 2,387,993,047 in the first half of 2023[5] Inventory and Receivables - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.21 billion from RMB 3.54 billion, a reduction of approximately 37.5%[2] - Accounts receivable totaled RMB 317,493,819 as of June 30, 2024, representing a 14.3% increase from RMB 277,721,354 on December 31, 2023[115] - The company has recognized a bad debt provision of RMB 177,789,186, which is 55.8% of the total accounts receivable as of June 30, 2024[116] Investments and Assets - The total amount of non-current financial assets increased to RMB 2,492,382,750 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,425,485,550 at the end of 2023[138] - Long-term equity investments in Hebei Jiahe Brewery amounted to RMB 220,762,244 as of June 30, 2024, with an investment loss recognized under the equity method of RMB 3,696,494[136] - The total value of right-of-use assets is RMB 266,109,014, an increase from RMB 129,355,155 as of December 31, 2023[161] Taxation - The corporate income tax rate applicable to most subsidiaries in mainland China is 25%, while the Hong Kong subsidiary is subject to a rate of 16.5%[106] - The company reported a total tax payable of RMB 1,030,681,162 as of June 30, 2024, significantly up from RMB 343,503,981 on December 31, 2023[181] - The total amount of unrecognized deductible losses due to uncertainty in future taxable income was RMB 318,951,000 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 296,357,000 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting an increase of about 7.5%[171] Employee Benefits - The present value of the defined benefit plan obligations as of June 30, 2024, is RMB 663,939,329, showing a slight increase from RMB 663,935,553 at the beginning of the period[192] - The total service cost for the current period is RMB 3,830,499, while the net interest amount is RMB 8,969,000[192] - The defined benefit plan net liability as of June 30, 2024, is RMB 663,939,329, compared to RMB 667,048,477 as of June 30, 2023, indicating a decrease in net liability[194] Compliance and Governance - The financial statements were prepared in accordance with the accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance, ensuring compliance and accuracy[17] - The company has maintained its continuous operation capability without significant doubts regarding its ability to continue as a going concern[18] - The company’s accounting period aligns with the calendar year, running from January 1 to December 31[24]

Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the company's operating revenue was RMB 21.59 billion, an increase of 7.6% compared to RMB 20.07 billion for the same period in 2023[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was RMB 3.43 billion, a decrease of 5.9% from RMB 3.64 billion in the previous year[4] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 20,068,307,930, a decrease of 7.05% compared to RMB 21,591,789,633 for the same period in 2023[9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3,641,652,772, compared to RMB 3,425,652,286 for the same period in 2023, representing an increase of 6.32%[15] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 2.672, up from RMB 2.516 for the same period in 2023, indicating a growth of 6.19%[15] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 52.81 billion, up from RMB 49.26 billion as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of 7.1%[3] - The total liabilities increased to RMB 23.59 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 21.00 billion at the end of 2023, marking an increase of 12.3%[3] - Accounts receivable as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 4,332,956,446, an increase from RMB 2,939,758,192 as of December 31, 2023[8] - The total liabilities of the company stood at CNY 24.99 billion, with significant liabilities in the Shandong region at CNY 14.03 billion[20] Cash Flow and Investments - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 24.47 billion from RMB 19.28 billion, representing a growth of 27.2%[1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed a positive trend, with significant cash reserves available for future investments and expansions[6] - Non-current asset additions amounted to CNY 539.12 million, indicating ongoing investment in asset growth[20] Market and Product Development - The company plans to continue its market expansion strategies and invest in new product development to enhance its competitive position in the industry[6] - The company has expanded its international market presence, with products now sold in over 120 countries and regions, and has seen rapid growth in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the South Pacific[24] - New product launches in the first half of 2024 included "Nika Xi White Beer," "Whole Wheat August A6 and A3," and "Non-Alcoholic White Beer," enhancing the product portfolio to meet diverse consumer demands[24] - The company is accelerating its digital transformation, investing in smart manufacturing, big data analysis, and IoT to enhance production capabilities and efficiency[25] Corporate Governance - The company is listed on both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, adhering to the corporate governance codes applicable in both regions[29] - The term of the current board of directors and supervisory board will expire on June 28, 2024, with the re-election and appointment process being delayed to ensure continuity and stability[29] - The company is committed to maintaining a high level of corporate governance and has complied with the relevant codes, except for deviation from code B.2.2[29] - The board consists of four executive directors and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a balanced governance structure[29] Dividends - The company declared a cash dividend of RMB 2.00 per share for the fiscal year 2023, totaling RMB 2,728,393,576 based on 1,364,196,788 shares issued[9] - The company has not declared an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to no interim dividend declared for the same period in 2023[9] - The company will not distribute interim dividends for the six months ended June 30, 2024[23] Tax and Expenses - The company reported a total tax expense of RMB 1,188,505,811 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,122,838,779 for the same period in 2023, an increase of 5.85%[11] - Main business costs for the same period were RMB 11,719,203,916, down from RMB 13,126,371,443, reflecting a decrease of 10.73%[9] - The company recorded a total of CNY 1.12 billion in income tax expenses for the period[20]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. [3][27] Core Views - The beer industry is experiencing structural upgrades, cost reductions, and a stable competitive landscape, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns gradually. The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.48% in profits from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasts of 3.66, 4.16, and 4.71 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16X for 2024 [3][27]. Summary by Sections 1. State-Owned Control and Enhanced Shareholder Returns - As of Q1 2024, the Qingdao State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission indirectly holds 32.51% of the company's shares, demonstrating strong state-owned control. The management team is experienced, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio from 40.2% in 2022 to 63.9% in 2023, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4% [10][27]. 2. Strategic Focus on "Qingdao Main Brand" and Price Increase Potential - The company is concentrating on the "Qingdao Main Brand" while phasing out local brands. The strategic focus includes a product upgrade and the "1+1+N" product combination to strengthen the mid-to-high-end market. The average price per ton is expected to rise from approximately 3,500 yuan to around 5,000 yuan [12][18][20]. 3. Cost and Competitive Advantages Leading to Potential Record Profit Margins - The company is benefiting from a cost reduction cycle, with a gross margin of 40.4% in Q1 2024, marking a historical high. The overall expense ratio has decreased, contributing to a net profit margin of 14.91% in Q1 2024, also a record high. The strategic focus on market development along the Yellow River is expected to release ongoing profits [20][21][23]. 4. Financial Summary - The financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue from 32,172 million yuan in 2022 to 35,172 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 7% in 2022 and 5% in 2023. The operating profit is expected to rise from 3,727 million yuan in 2022 to 5,420 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 4,988 million yuan for 2024 [7][27].

Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 10.15 billion, a decrease of 5.19% year-on-year[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.60 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.06%[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 1.51 billion, up 12.11% year-on-year[5] - The basic earnings per share were RMB 1.175, an increase of 9.71% year-on-year[5] Cash Flow and Assets - The operating cash flow net amount increased by 57.29% to RMB 2.85 billion, driven by higher cash receipts from sales[7] - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 50.46 billion, an increase of 2.44% from the end of the previous year[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 29.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.89% year-on-year[4] Sales and Market Performance - The cumulative product sales reached 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao beer accounting for 1.322 million kiloliters[5] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to enhance brand optimization and product structure upgrades to achieve sustainable high-quality development[5] Government Support and Shareholding - The company received government subsidies amounting to RMB 94.92 million related to daily operations[6] - Qingdao Beer Group holds a total of 38,335,600 H shares and 405,132,055 A shares of the company[10] - The company acquired 20% equity of Qingdao Beer (Anshan) Co., Ltd. for RMB 18.065 million, increasing its ownership to 80%[12] - The report indicates that there were no changes in the top 10 shareholders due to margin trading or stock lending activities[11]

Brand Value and Market Position - Tsingtao Beer brand value reached RMB 240.689 billion in 2023, maintaining the top position in the Chinese beer industry[8] - The total brand value of Tsingtao Brewery's brands, including Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, and Hans Brewery, surpassed RMB 380 billion[9] - Tsingtao Brewery has launched several new products, including "Century Legend" and "Tsingtao IPA," which cater to market demands and lead trends in high-end beer consumption[11] - The company operates 57 wholly-owned and controlling breweries and 2 associated breweries across 20 provinces in China, solidifying its leading market position[6] - Tsingtao Brewery's products are sold in over 120 countries and regions worldwide, reflecting its extensive market reach[13] - The company has strengthened its marketing network and improved customer service capabilities to enhance its competitive edge in both established and emerging markets[13] - Tsingtao Beer has received multiple awards for quality in domestic and international competitions, reinforcing its reputation for high product quality[10] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 33,936,523 thousand, an increase from RMB 32,171,566 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 5.5%[17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the Company was RMB 4,267,851 thousand, up from RMB 3,710,629 thousand in 2022, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 15%[17] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 was RMB 3.139, compared to RMB 2.736 in 2022, marking an increase of about 14.7%[17] - Total profit for the year was RMB 5,746,407 thousand, which is an increase from RMB 5,006,141 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 14.8%[17] - The weighted average return on net assets for 2023 was 16.12%, up from 15.30% in 2022, indicating improved efficiency in asset utilization[17] - The Company’s total equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 27,449,478 thousand from RMB 25,494,822 thousand in 2022, showing a growth of about 7.7%[17] - The Company recognized government grants in profits amounting to RMB 391,134 thousand, contributing positively to the overall profit figures[15] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company continued to enhance operational efficiency and cost management, contributing to sustainable growth[26] - The revenue per kiloliter increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating improved pricing power in the market[28] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and innovation management to drive high-quality development[24] - The company is accelerating the construction of large-scale, intelligent, and green plants, including a high-end beer production base with an annual capacity of 1 million kiloliters and a malt raw material base with an annual capacity of 250,000 tons[31] Shareholder and Equity Information - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB2.00 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, subject to approval at the annual general meeting[39][41] - The company aims to maintain a stable profit distribution policy, ensuring that cash dividends are not less than 30% of the distributable profits for the year[39] - The total number of ordinary shares is 1,364,232,790, with a decrease of 36,002 shares[54] - The substantial shareholder, Qingdao State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, held 405,132,055 A-shares, which is 29.70% of the total issued capital[62] Employee Management and Development - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had a total of 30,687 full-time employees, with 13,716 in production, 9,714 in sales, and 2,368 in technical roles[82][83] - The company implemented a differentiated assessment and distribution mechanism for total wages linked to performance, aiming to enhance employee income levels in line with operational results[84] - The company has adopted an annual performance appraisal system for executive directors and senior management, focusing on position responsibilities and annual operating results[75] - The proportion of highly skilled talents within the Company continued to increase, with over 70 skill awards received at national, provincial, and municipal levels[88] Governance and Compliance - The Company has complied with the disclosure requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules regarding continuing connected transactions[130] - The Company’s internal control procedures regarding transactions have been deemed adequate and effective by the Board[130] - The internal control and risk management system aims to ensure legal compliance, asset security, and the authenticity of financial reporting[194] - The company has established a robust management system for information insiders, with no regulatory issues reported during the Reporting Period[153] Environmental Sustainability - The company is committed to environmental sustainability, focusing on low-carbon management and circular economy practices to achieve a balance between production efficiency and ecological civilization[40] - The Company has improved its environmental management system and aims for sustainable development through low-carbon management and circular economy practices[44] - The environmental performance has been continuously improved, ensuring stable and compliant pollutant discharge during production[46] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its global market presence, particularly in traditional advantageous markets, as part of its strategy along the "Belt and Road" initiative[29] - The Company implements a profit distribution policy, ensuring cash dividends are no less than 30% of distributable profits for the current year[42] - The Company is leveraging its position as the world's first industrial internet "Lighthouse Brewery" to drive innovation and high-quality development in the beer industry[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of HK$101.00, slightly down from the previous HK$101.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that despite a significant increase in sales and distribution expenses in Q4 2023, the profit margin expansion trend is expected to continue into 2024, driven by product upgrades and a decrease in the sales and distribution expense ratio [1][2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 40.87 billion, which is 7.7% lower than previous forecasts due to increased brand investment following negative news in November 2023 [1][3]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of beer increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2023, while sales volume decreased by 0.8%, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 31.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 33.40 billion, maintaining the same growth rate [2][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 34.0%, expected to rise to 36.1% in 2024, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix and cost management [2][10]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 3.64, down from RMB 3.82 previously forecasted, indicating a 5% decrease [1][3]. Valuation - The report uses a 15x adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple for valuation, which is higher than the current multiples of 9.0x for Chinese beer companies and 12.8x for liquor companies, reflecting the company's positive revenue structure changes and profit margin improvements [4][5]. - The target price of HK$101.00 is based on updated earnings forecasts and a revised exchange rate assumption of 1.10 for RMB/HKD [4][5]. Market Comparison - Qingdao Beer is compared with peers such as China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC, showing a competitive position in terms of valuation metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA [5]. - The report notes that Qingdao Beer trades at a P/E of 12.6x for 2024E, which is attractive given the expected growth in profit margins and revenue [5][10].