Core Insights - The relocation of China Resources Snow Beer headquarters to Shenzhen is viewed as a strategic move amid a significant industry adjustment, marking a shift from "scale expansion" to "value competition" in the Chinese beer market [1][10] Industry Overview - The Chinese beer industry has entered a prolonged period of declining production, with national beer output in November 2025 at 1.596 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, indicating the end of the "volume growth" era and a shift towards "price growth" as a survival strategy for market participants [2][4] Company Performance - China Resources Snow Beer reported a slight revenue increase of 0.8% to 23.942 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant profit growth of 23% to 5.789 billion yuan and a record high gross margin of 48.9%, driven primarily by high-end product sales, which grew over 10% year-on-year [4] - Other companies in the industry, such as Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, also reported revenue growth, with Qingdao Beer achieving 29.37 billion yuan in revenue, a 1.4% increase, and Yanjing Beer’s mid-year report showing a 9.32% increase in revenue from mid-range products [4] Market Dynamics - The relocation of the headquarters to Shenzhen is part of a broader strategy to optimize resources and align with national strategies, while also reflecting a changing market landscape, with the eastern region contributing over 40% of revenue and showing the highest profit growth [6] - The South China market is becoming increasingly competitive for high-end beer consumption, with major players like Budweiser and Qingdao Beer making significant investments in the region [6] Channel Transformation - The beer industry is experiencing a profound transformation in distribution channels, with traditional retail and dining channels growing steadily, while online platforms for instant retail are rapidly expanding, becoming a new engine for reaching younger consumers [7][9] - Companies are leveraging consumer data to drive product development, with China Resources Snow Beer launching an exclusive product in collaboration with Meituan, and other brands like Qingdao Beer and Budweiser enhancing their online presence and delivery efficiency [9]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer’s premium brand Augerta has formed a strategic partnership with the Australian Open, becoming the official partner for the event in China, highlighting a blend of quality lifestyle and sports [1][3] Group 1: Brand and Event Collaboration - The partnership between Augerta and the Australian Open represents a fusion of two century-old brands, emphasizing a shared pursuit of high-quality and elegant experiences [3][5] - Augerta aims to create a new social experience that combines tennis with the enjoyment of beer, appealing to urban consumers who view tennis as a modern lifestyle choice [2][7] Group 2: Product Quality and Innovation - Augerta’s product line, including Augerta Classic, A3, and A6, reflects a commitment to quality, with the Classic series winning a gold medal at the World Beer Cup in 2019 [5][6] - The Augerta A6, with a unique 258ml bottle design, is crafted using a special blend of European malts and hops, showcasing both aesthetic appeal and high-quality brewing techniques [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Marketing Strategy - The collaboration with the Australian Open allows Augerta to engage consumers through promotional activities, including a chance to win tickets to the event, aligning with the festive atmosphere of the Chinese New Year [7][8] - Augerta’s marketing strategy focuses on appealing to young consumers' desire for an upgraded lifestyle and social experience, integrating the brand into everyday social settings [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The 23rd China International Wine Expo was successfully held from October 17 to 19, showcasing a variety of Qingdao Beer products and new offerings, emphasizing a health-conscious approach to beer consumption [1] Product Highlights - Qingdao Beer introduced key products aligned with modern consumer trends, particularly highlighting "Qingdao Beer Light Dry," which focuses on low calories, low sugar, and high quality to cater to health-conscious consumers [2] - The "Qingdao Beer Light Dry" contains only 29 calories per 100ml and has a sugar content as low as 0.1g, promoting a lighter drinking experience [4] - The 0.0% alcohol white beer from Qingdao Beer won a gold medal at the 2025 Beer World Cup, utilizing advanced vacuum distillation technology to maintain the original flavor while reducing alcohol content to less than 0.05% [6] Awards and Recognition - Qingdao Beer showcased a full array of products at the expo, including award-winning items such as classic 1903, pure draft, white beer, and various high-end specialty beers, all of which have received gold medals in domestic and international competitions [10] Consumer Engagement - The expo featured interactive activities that combined "wine experience" with "fun interaction," enhancing audience participation and adding joy to consumers' quality of life [12]

网球与啤酒相遇，跃动的激情与氤氲的醇香交织。10月14日，青岛啤酒旗下高端品牌奥古特于上海举办"奥古特之夜"活动，并宣布与澳大 利亚网球公开赛（澳网）达成战略合作，奥古特正式成为澳大利亚网球公开赛中国官方合作伙伴。 双方将持续开展在中国市场的深度联动，为消费者提供融合网球运动与啤酒社交文化的独特体验。奥古特也为广大消费者开启直击澳网的 大门，消费者购买奥古特促销装产品，开盖扫码即有机会赢取亲临澳网现场的观赛大奖，体验与世界同步的网球激情。 奥古特携手澳网：质感共生 一拍即合 澳网作为网球四大满贯最具年轻活力的赛事，以其独特的竞技魅力、深厚的文化底蕴以及广泛的全球影响力，吸引着世界顶尖选手和亿万 球迷，传递着竞技、优雅、创新并重的体育精神。奥古特作为青岛啤酒旗下高端品牌，传承百年酿造技艺，以全新姿态诠释社交内涵，二 者皆在经典中焕发新锐力量，于传承中书写极致追求。 从青岛啤酒的百年酿造匠心，到澳网的百年赛事荣耀，双方同样秉持着对极致品质和优雅格调的共同追求，两者质感共生、一拍即合，成 就了品牌与赛事的跨界合作。 双方不仅在精神内核一拍即合，奥古特的"A"元素、奥古特蓝与澳网标志同样完美适配，构成一道极具高级美学 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer market is experiencing a significant shift, with domestic giants gaining ground against foreign competitors, particularly in the context of the "takeout war" that has revitalized the industry [4][6][30]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the Chinese beer market is changing, with domestic brands outperforming foreign giants in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. - In the first half of 2025, China’s beer market saw a decline in overall production by 0.3%, continuing a trend of stagnation [18]. - Despite the overall market decline, domestic giants like China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer achieved over 2% growth in sales [19][20]. Group 2: Performance of Major Players - China Resources Beer surpassed Budweiser APAC to become the market leader, with a revenue of approximately 239.42 billion RMB, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of 31.36 billion USD (approximately 224.5 billion RMB), a 5.6% decline year-on-year, marking the worst performance among the top five [9]. - Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are in a tight race for the fourth position, with Yanjing Beer achieving a net profit growth of 45.45%, surpassing Chongqing Beer [13][14]. Group 3: Impact of Instant Retail - The "takeout war" has provided a new growth driver for the beer industry, with instant retail becoming a significant channel for sales [17][21]. - Qingdao Beer reported a nearly 60% increase in sales through instant retail platforms, significantly outperforming the industry average [26]. - China Resources Beer noted a nearly 40% growth in its online business and a 50% increase in its instant retail business [27]. Group 4: Foreign Brands' Struggles - Foreign brands, particularly Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer, are facing challenges, with Budweiser's sales in China declining by 8.2% [10][30]. - The high-end beer market, once dominated by Budweiser, is seeing its advantages eroded by the growth of domestic brands [30][33]. - Both Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer are shifting focus to non-immediate channels in response to declining performance in traditional immediate consumption venues [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer is facing unprecedented pressure with a decline in revenue for 2024, marking the first drop in three years, and the lowest net profit growth in nearly eight years [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qingdao Beer achieved a slight revenue increase of 2.91% year-on-year, while net profit grew by 7.08%, still below historical growth rates [2] - The stock price of Qingdao Beer has been on a downward trend since 2023, closing at 67.76 yuan per share on August 8, down nearly 50% from its peak of 119.65 yuan [2] - The beer production in China for 2024 was 35.213 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, representing about 70% of the production in 2013 [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Competition - The high-end beer market has slowed down in 2024, with many companies experiencing a decline in sales of mid-to-high-end products [3] - Qingdao Beer has launched several high-end products since 2009, but by 2024, sales of high-end products decreased by 2.65% year-on-year [3][4] - Competitors like Yanjing Beer have successfully launched popular products, such as Yanjing U8, which saw over 30% revenue growth, contrasting with Qingdao Beer's declining main brand price [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Challenges - Young consumers are increasingly favoring craft brands and value-for-money products, leading to a decline in demand for traditional industrial beers [5] - Qingdao Beer faces structural challenges, including a shrinking consumer base aged 18-49 and increased competition from low-alcohol and tea-flavored beverages [8] - The company struggles with brand recognition and market penetration in southern China, where revenue from key markets like South China and East China remains low [8] Group 4: Sales Channels and Strategies - Instant retail is emerging as a significant channel for Qingdao Beer, with sales on platforms like Meituan increasing by 24.8% in 2024 [6] - Despite rapid growth in instant retail, it still represents a small portion of total revenue, with Meituan's 10 billion yuan sales accounting for only about 3% of total revenue [7] - Qingdao Beer is enhancing its online and offline integration, launching new products through instant retail channels [6] Group 5: Brand Image and Quality Issues - Recent food safety incidents have negatively impacted consumer trust in Qingdao Beer, highlighting vulnerabilities in supply chain management [9] - The company has faced complaints regarding product quality, which further erodes brand reputation [9] Conclusion - Qingdao Beer is at a critical juncture, needing to develop a standout product to avoid falling into a dual crisis of failing high-end strategies and losing its core market [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is showing significant structural characteristics and phase pressure, with a notable trend of concentration among leading brands. The demand side is currently impacted by external policy shocks, particularly a new round of alcohol prohibition affecting both public and private consumption scenarios. However, there is potential for policy adjustments in the future. In the medium to long term, consumption is expected to concentrate on leading brands and high-cost performance products, with resilient companies likely to gain advantages during industry adjustments. Recommendations include seeking low-position investments in leading white liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [3][12][13]. Market Performance - From July 28 to August 1, the food and beverage index fell by 2.2%, ranking 16th among 28 first-level sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. Other food (+0.0%), meat products (-0.0%), and dairy products (-0.6%) performed relatively better [12][14]. Upstream Data - As of July 15, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,928 per ton, up 1.8% month-on-month and 25.0% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram as of July 24, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 5.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short to medium term [19][22]. Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Short-term demand pressure but focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Facing short-term demand pressure but with high mid-term growth certainty. - Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business with improving raw material costs. - Wancheng Group: Continuous expansion in the snack retail sector targeting young consumers. - Bairun Co.: Improvement trends in pre-mixed drinks and whiskey distribution [5][13].

Group 1 - Guizhou's retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 7.4% in the first half of 2025, with a total retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, the production of liquor in Lüliang City decreased by 0.8%, while the overall industrial added value grew by 3.9% [2][3] - The city of Renhuai is exploring the establishment of a "express train" for liquor delivery to enhance export trade and market promotion [4][5] Group 2 - Moutai launched a promotional event for its products, offering discounts and prizes, running from July 28 to August 3 [5] - Moutai's distributor association in Henan held a re-election meeting, emphasizing the need for transformation and technology integration to meet consumer demands [5] - Moutai Fund has invested in Leju Robotics, increasing its registered capital by approximately 19.5% [5][6] Group 3 - Qingdao Beer expects its transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase to exceed 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, driven by significant growth in key products [7] - Huazhi Youxuan focuses on a new retail model combining products and services, aiming for rapid turnover and customer engagement [7] - Fenggu Liquor is strategizing for the second half of 2025, emphasizing quality and sustainable development in its operations [8] Group 4 - A compliance notice for the production and operation of sauce-flavored liquor was issued, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the reputation of Guizhou liquor [8][9] - The National Standardization Technical Committee for Winemaking announced plans to revise standards for mountain grape wine and ice wine [10] - Shanzhuang Group's new brewing base project, with an investment of 2.34 billion yuan, is set to be operational by the end of the year, significantly increasing production capacity [10] Group 5 - Rémy Cointreau reported a 5.7% organic sales growth in the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, with a slight decline in the Chinese market [10]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer is expected to achieve over 1.5 billion yuan in transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase by 2025, making it one of the largest online sales channels for the brand [1] - In 2024, Qingdao Beer surpassed 1 billion yuan in transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase for the first time, driven by the rapid growth of key products [1] - The partnership has led to a nearly 60% year-on-year increase in sales volume for Qingdao Beer on Meituan Flash Purchase in the first half of this year [1] Group 1 - Qingdao Beer launched the "Night Owl" series of new products on Meituan Flash Purchase, marking a significant breakthrough in the industry for high-end products to quickly penetrate core urban markets [2] - The collaboration has enabled Qingdao Beer to significantly reduce the product launch cycle through flagship stores and lightning warehouses [2] - Meituan Flash Purchase is helping Qingdao Beer optimize product design and expand new product sales momentum through data insights and efficient fulfillment capabilities [2] Group 2 - Based on previous successful cooperation, both parties have decided to deepen collaboration by expanding store numbers and launching new products [5] - By 2025, the number of Qingdao Beer flagship stores on Meituan Flash Purchase is expected to exceed 1,000 [5] - Meituan Flash Purchase will continue to enhance unique services like "No Ice, No Pay" to meet the increasing demand for chilled beverages during summer and sports events [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is focused on deepening its domestic and international market presence, with a primary goal of increasing sales volume. It employs a strategic approach that includes consolidating its market position along the Yellow River, expanding its coastal market strategy, and leveraging opportunities in the southern market [4][6] - The company is implementing a product development strategy that includes a combination of classic, pure draft, and white beer as core products, alongside premium and fresh products to capture market trends [5] - New market opportunities are being pursued through the development of diverse products catering to consumer preferences, new channel partnerships, and targeting new demographics [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from a low base in 2024, with projected revenues of 331.81 billion, 339.14 billion, and 344.16 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3.25%, 2.21%, and 1.48% [7][10] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 47.24 billion, 51.25 billion, and 54.76 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.73%, 8.48%, and 6.85% [7][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.46, 3.76, and 4.01 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 18, and 17 times [7][10]