恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至1%。阿里健康、哔哩哔哩跌超4%，百度跌超3%。 ...

证券研究报告 阿里健康 (241 HK) 港股通 自营业务转向高质量发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 阿里健康 2HFY25 总收入 163 亿元，同比+16.0%，增速好于 Visible Alpha (VA，口径下同)一致预期的+12.6%，经调整净利润 9.7 亿元，同比增长 22.2%，逊于一致预期的 11.0 亿元。在广告业务注入带来的基数效应逐渐 消失后，我们预计阿里健康未来的盈利增速将主要依赖内生业务增速驱动。 后续建议关注：1）医药电商各品类需求修复情况及竞争格局演变；2）淘宝 即时零售战略进展及医药品类近场电商发展情况；3）阿里健康医疗 AI 技术 进展及商业化节奏。"买入"。 广告业务并入贡献坚实增量，淘宝闪购业务发展或带来近场电商领域机会 盈利预测与估值 我们调整 FY26-27 经调整归母净利润预测-8.8/-8.4%至 23/26 亿元，并引入 FY28 预测新值 29 亿元。我们给予公司 35x 目标非 IFRS PE，较可比公司 2026 年均值 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. However, the adjusted net profit of RMB 970 million was below the expected RMB 1.1 billion, indicating that future profit growth will rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1][2]. - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with an adjusted net profit growth target of 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in core businesses while exploring new growth avenues in innovative sectors like medical AI [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 33.6 billion in FY26, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.6% [14][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 6.8% in FY26, up from previous estimates, indicating better operational efficiency [14][15]. Business Segments Performance - The self-operated business generated RMB 14 billion in revenue for 2HFY25, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1%. The e-commerce platform business saw revenue of RMB 1.9 billion, growing 43.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% growth [2][3]. - The management highlighted that the integration of advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, which is a premium compared to the average of 16.2x for comparable companies, reflecting the company's ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 5.43 from a previous value of HKD 4.4, indicating a positive outlook based on the company's growth trajectory and market positioning [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported strong financial results for the fiscal year 2025, marking the third consecutive year of revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased user engagement and innovation in its business model [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba Health achieved a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 1.432 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 62.2% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit reached 1.95 billion yuan, up 35.6% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Historical Performance - Alibaba Health's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend, increasing from 9.596 billion yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 30.598 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The net profit has fluctuated but generally trended upwards, from a loss of 6.586 million yuan in fiscal year 2020 to a profit of 1.432 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025 [3]. Business Development - The company has enhanced its one-stop healthcare service capabilities, focusing on improving user experience through better product offerings and services [4]. - The Tmall Health platform has seen steady growth, with a significant increase in annual GMV and active users, and the number of online products grew by over 91% to 133 million [4]. Investment in Innovation - Alibaba Health invested 720 million yuan in product development during fiscal year 2025, focusing on AI technology, business optimization, and digital traceability [5]. - The company’s self-operated pharmaceutical business generated over 26.124 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [5]. Market Position and Stock Performance - Alibaba Health's stock price saw a cumulative increase of over 60% in February and March due to the recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector and interest in AI healthcare concepts, but has since declined [7]. - As of May 20, the stock price was 4.89 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 78.7 billion HKD [7].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical e-commerce giants, such as Alibaba Health and JD Health, are experiencing significant growth in their performance, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by offline pharmacies amid a wave of store closures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, with a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [1]. - JD Health achieved a revenue of 16.645 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, with an operating profit of 1.071 billion yuan, up 119.8% [2]. - Both companies have achieved profitability for three consecutive years, with JD Health also reporting a net profit of 934 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [3][2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Offline pharmacies are facing challenges, with five out of eight A-share pharmacy companies reporting a decline in net profit for 2024, and half of the companies continuing to see profit declines in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. - The total number of pharmacies in China decreased by 0.5% at the end of 2024 compared to the third quarter, marking the first quarterly decline in recent years, with a net reduction of 3,395 stores in the fourth quarter [4]. - The shift towards online pharmaceutical retail is accelerating, with the drug sales scale in China's retail market reaching 501.9 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.8%, while e-commerce drug sales grew by 4.6% [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly focusing on e-commerce channels due to changing patient purchasing habits and the rise of online consultations [6]. - JD Health has solidified its position as a leading platform for the online launch of new specialty drugs, introducing several innovative medications in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. - Alibaba Health continues to leverage its platform for the launch of new drugs, collaborating with well-known pharmaceutical companies to enhance its market presence [7].

Core Insights - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.2% and a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [1][2] - The company's revenue structure is primarily driven by its pharmaceutical e-commerce business, with self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reaching 26.124 billion yuan, a 10.0% increase, while the e-commerce platform revenue surged by 54.0% to 3.588 billion yuan [1][3] - The healthcare and digital services segment saw a decline in revenue, dropping 7.6% to 0.885 billion yuan, attributed to the optimization of certain innovative businesses [3] Revenue Growth - The internet healthcare market in China reached a total market size of 376.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.34% [2] - Alibaba Health's revenue surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, and its net profit exceeded 1 billion yuan for the first time, achieving significant growth for three consecutive years [2] Competitive Landscape - The internet healthcare sector is experiencing intensified competition, with new entrants and evolving business models impacting traditional players like Alibaba Health [4][5] - The rise of instant retail channels is seen as a key driver for growth in the pharmaceutical retail sector, with predictions indicating a sales scale of 48.7 billion yuan for instant retail in 2024, a 31.3% increase from 2023 [5] - Alibaba Health's business primarily focuses on B2C and B2B, maintaining high levels of next-day delivery service while expanding its reach to 13 cities [5] Innovation and Technology - Alibaba Health is actively integrating new technologies, including AI, into its services, with initiatives like the launch of an AI-assisted traditional Chinese medicine diagnostic system [6][7] - The company has partnered with the China Anti-Cancer Association to enhance cancer prevention and treatment awareness through AI technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of online pharmaceutical giants like Alibaba Health and JD Health continues to grow, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by offline pharmacies in the current market environment [2][4]. Company Performance - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [2][3]. - JD Health achieved a revenue of 16.645 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5%. The operating profit was 1.071 billion yuan, up 119.8%, and the net profit was 934 million yuan, a 4.6% increase [3]. Industry Trends - Offline pharmacies are experiencing a downturn, with five out of eight listed pharmacy companies reporting a decline in net profit for 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, half of these companies continued to see a drop in net profit [4]. - The total number of pharmacies in China decreased by 0.5% at the end of 2024 compared to the third quarter, marking the first quarterly decline in recent years. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 10,700 new stores opened while 14,100 closed, resulting in a net decrease of 3,395 stores [4]. - The online penetration of pharmaceutical retail is accelerating, with the drug sales scale in China's retail market reaching 501.9 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.8%. Online drug sales accounted for 64.5 billion yuan, growing at a rate of 4.6%, surpassing the growth of physical pharmacies [5]. New Product Launches - JD Health has solidified its position as the "first station for online launch of new specialty drugs," introducing several innovative drugs in the first quarter of 2025 [6]. - Alibaba Health continues to leverage its platform for the launch of new drugs, collaborating with well-known pharmaceutical companies to facilitate the introduction of multiple new products [6].

截至2025年5月20日 09:35，恒生医疗保健指数(HSHCI)强势上涨2.69%，成分股三生制药(01530)上涨33.93%，欧康维视生物-B(01477)上涨7.44%，再鼎医药 (09688)上涨6.39%，石药集团(01093)，诺诚健华(09969)等个股跟涨。恒生医疗ETF(513060)高开高走上涨2.48%，冲击3连涨。最新价报0.50元。流动性方 面，恒生医疗ETF盘中换手2.6%，成交2.66亿元。拉长时间看，截至5月19日，恒生医疗ETF近1月日均成交12.37亿元，居可比基金第一。 湘财证券指出，近期在国家鼓励创新大背景下创新药产业链表现活跃，虽然医药工业复苏仍有待验证，行业受医保控费压力仍在，但多层次的支付体系正在 建立，医疗需求的刚性将共同推动行业企稳回升，建议关注高成长及预期改善两大方向，具体而言：（1）高成长：医药外包服务中的ADCCDMO、减肥药 产业链多肽CDMO等方向公司。（2）预期改善：盈利能力有望触底回升的第三方检验医学实验室，消费医疗中的眼科及口腔等方向的公司。 恒生医疗ETF紧密跟踪恒生医疗保健指数，恒生医疗保健指数提供一项市场参考指标，反映在香港上市、主要 ...

金十数据整理：每日港股市场要闻速递（5月20日 周二） 2. 阿里健康(00241.HK)：截至2025年3月31日止，实现营收305.98亿元人民币，同比增长13.2%；经调整 后利润净额19.5亿元人民币，同比增幅35.6%。 3. 零跑汽车(09863.HK)：一季度收入100.2亿元人民币，同比增长187.1%；毛利率创历史新高，达 14.9%。 重要新闻 1. 中国央行将一年期、五年期LPR均下调10个基点。 个股新闻 1. 宁德时代(03750.HK)今日港交所挂牌，昨日的暗盘收涨8.29%，报284.8港元，成交4.6亿港元。按一手 100股算，账面赚2180港元。 6. 顺丰控股(06936.HK)4月速运物流业务、供应链及国际业务合计收入为239.15亿元，同比增长 12.42%。 7. 交个朋友(01450.HK)与百度优选战略合作，罗永浩5月23日晚首播。 8. 中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司增持农业银行(01288.HK)7446.738万股，每股作价5.0717港元，总 金额约3.78亿港元。 4. 阿里影业(01060.HK)：截至2025年3月31日止，实现营收67.02亿元人 ...

截至2025年3月31日，在线自营店有效GMV(商品交易总额)保持健康增长，年度活跃用户数和自营会员 数量持续提升，自营SKU同比增长33.6%至123万。同时，我们持续提升慢病用户体验，慢病用户数持 续提升的同时，人均DOT时长同比增长9%。报告期内，我们进一步整合优化药品物流网络布局，致力 于提升整体物流体验。药品次日达水平持续保持高位的同时，次日送货上门服务逐步拓展至覆盖广州、 宁波、金华、嘉兴、绍兴、湖州、台州和温州等13个城市。 报告期内，本集团收入实现稳定增长，总收入为305.98亿元，同比增长13.2%。报告期内净利润额为 14.32亿元，同比增长62.2%。调整后净利润额为19.5亿元，同比增长35.6%，调整后净利润率从5.3%提 升至6.4%。报告期内，天猫健康平台业务持续稳健发展，年度GMV(商品交易总额)保持稳健增长，年 度活跃用户数(过往于十二个月内在天猫健康平台实际购买过一次或以上商品的消费者)持续提升。报告 期内，本集团积极运营天猫健康类目的广告业务，持续赋能商家，提升品牌商经营服务能力，其收入实 现高速增长。在医疗大模型应用领域，医药电商业务场景下，从流量、供给和服务承接等实现 ...