恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至1%。阿里健康、哔哩哔哩跌超4%，百度跌超3%。 ...

证券研究报告 阿里健康 (241 HK) 港股通 自营业务转向高质量发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 阿里健康 2HFY25 总收入 163 亿元，同比+16.0%，增速好于 Visible Alpha (VA，口径下同)一致预期的+12.6%，经调整净利润 9.7 亿元，同比增长 22.2%，逊于一致预期的 11.0 亿元。在广告业务注入带来的基数效应逐渐 消失后，我们预计阿里健康未来的盈利增速将主要依赖内生业务增速驱动。 后续建议关注：1）医药电商各品类需求修复情况及竞争格局演变；2）淘宝 即时零售战略进展及医药品类近场电商发展情况；3）阿里健康医疗 AI 技术 进展及商业化节奏。"买入"。 广告业务并入贡献坚实增量，淘宝闪购业务发展或带来近场电商领域机会 盈利预测与估值 我们调整 FY26-27 经调整归母净利润预测-8.8/-8.4%至 23/26 亿元，并引入 FY28 预测新值 29 亿元。我们给予公司 35x 目标非 IFRS PE，较可比公司 2026 年均值 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. However, the adjusted net profit of RMB 970 million was below the expected RMB 1.1 billion, indicating that future profit growth will rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1][2]. - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with an adjusted net profit growth target of 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in core businesses while exploring new growth avenues in innovative sectors like medical AI [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 33.6 billion in FY26, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.6% [14][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 6.8% in FY26, up from previous estimates, indicating better operational efficiency [14][15]. Business Segments Performance - The self-operated business generated RMB 14 billion in revenue for 2HFY25, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1%. The e-commerce platform business saw revenue of RMB 1.9 billion, growing 43.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% growth [2][3]. - The management highlighted that the integration of advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, which is a premium compared to the average of 16.2x for comparable companies, reflecting the company's ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 5.43 from a previous value of HKD 4.4, indicating a positive outlook based on the company's growth trajectory and market positioning [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported strong financial results for the fiscal year 2025, marking the third consecutive year of revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased user engagement and innovation in its business model [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba Health achieved a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 1.432 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 62.2% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit reached 1.95 billion yuan, up 35.6% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Historical Performance - Alibaba Health's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend, increasing from 9.596 billion yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 30.598 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The net profit has fluctuated but generally trended upwards, from a loss of 6.586 million yuan in fiscal year 2020 to a profit of 1.432 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025 [3]. Business Development - The company has enhanced its one-stop healthcare service capabilities, focusing on improving user experience through better product offerings and services [4]. - The Tmall Health platform has seen steady growth, with a significant increase in annual GMV and active users, and the number of online products grew by over 91% to 133 million [4]. Investment in Innovation - Alibaba Health invested 720 million yuan in product development during fiscal year 2025, focusing on AI technology, business optimization, and digital traceability [5]. - The company’s self-operated pharmaceutical business generated over 26.124 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [5]. Market Position and Stock Performance - Alibaba Health's stock price saw a cumulative increase of over 60% in February and March due to the recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector and interest in AI healthcare concepts, but has since declined [7]. - As of May 20, the stock price was 4.89 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 78.7 billion HKD [7].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical e-commerce giants, such as Alibaba Health and JD Health, are experiencing significant growth in their performance, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by offline pharmacies amid a wave of store closures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, with a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [1]. - JD Health achieved a revenue of 16.645 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, with an operating profit of 1.071 billion yuan, up 119.8% [2]. - Both companies have achieved profitability for three consecutive years, with JD Health also reporting a net profit of 934 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [3][2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Offline pharmacies are facing challenges, with five out of eight A-share pharmacy companies reporting a decline in net profit for 2024, and half of the companies continuing to see profit declines in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. - The total number of pharmacies in China decreased by 0.5% at the end of 2024 compared to the third quarter, marking the first quarterly decline in recent years, with a net reduction of 3,395 stores in the fourth quarter [4]. - The shift towards online pharmaceutical retail is accelerating, with the drug sales scale in China's retail market reaching 501.9 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.8%, while e-commerce drug sales grew by 4.6% [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly focusing on e-commerce channels due to changing patient purchasing habits and the rise of online consultations [6]. - JD Health has solidified its position as a leading platform for the online launch of new specialty drugs, introducing several innovative medications in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. - Alibaba Health continues to leverage its platform for the launch of new drugs, collaborating with well-known pharmaceutical companies to enhance its market presence [7].

Core Insights - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.2% and a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [1][2] - The company's revenue structure is primarily driven by its pharmaceutical e-commerce business, with self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reaching 26.124 billion yuan, a 10.0% increase, while the e-commerce platform revenue surged by 54.0% to 3.588 billion yuan [1][3] - The healthcare and digital services segment saw a decline in revenue, dropping 7.6% to 0.885 billion yuan, attributed to the optimization of certain innovative businesses [3] Revenue Growth - The internet healthcare market in China reached a total market size of 376.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.34% [2] - Alibaba Health's revenue surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, and its net profit exceeded 1 billion yuan for the first time, achieving significant growth for three consecutive years [2] Competitive Landscape - The internet healthcare sector is experiencing intensified competition, with new entrants and evolving business models impacting traditional players like Alibaba Health [4][5] - The rise of instant retail channels is seen as a key driver for growth in the pharmaceutical retail sector, with predictions indicating a sales scale of 48.7 billion yuan for instant retail in 2024, a 31.3% increase from 2023 [5] - Alibaba Health's business primarily focuses on B2C and B2B, maintaining high levels of next-day delivery service while expanding its reach to 13 cities [5] Innovation and Technology - Alibaba Health is actively integrating new technologies, including AI, into its services, with initiatives like the launch of an AI-assisted traditional Chinese medicine diagnostic system [6][7] - The company has partnered with the China Anti-Cancer Association to enhance cancer prevention and treatment awareness through AI technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of online pharmaceutical giants like Alibaba Health and JD Health continues to grow, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by offline pharmacies in the current market environment [2][4]. Company Performance - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [2][3]. - JD Health achieved a revenue of 16.645 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5%. The operating profit was 1.071 billion yuan, up 119.8%, and the net profit was 934 million yuan, a 4.6% increase [3]. Industry Trends - Offline pharmacies are experiencing a downturn, with five out of eight listed pharmacy companies reporting a decline in net profit for 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, half of these companies continued to see a drop in net profit [4]. - The total number of pharmacies in China decreased by 0.5% at the end of 2024 compared to the third quarter, marking the first quarterly decline in recent years. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 10,700 new stores opened while 14,100 closed, resulting in a net decrease of 3,395 stores [4]. - The online penetration of pharmaceutical retail is accelerating, with the drug sales scale in China's retail market reaching 501.9 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.8%. Online drug sales accounted for 64.5 billion yuan, growing at a rate of 4.6%, surpassing the growth of physical pharmacies [5]. New Product Launches - JD Health has solidified its position as the "first station for online launch of new specialty drugs," introducing several innovative drugs in the first quarter of 2025 [6]. - Alibaba Health continues to leverage its platform for the launch of new drugs, collaborating with well-known pharmaceutical companies to facilitate the introduction of multiple new products [6].

智通财经5月19日电，阿里健康2024年营收306.0亿元人民币，预估302.7亿元人民币；调整后净利润19.5 亿元人民币；毛利率24.3％，预估24.1％。 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Health announced a stable revenue growth for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with total revenue reaching 30.598 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - The net profit for the reporting period was 1.432 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 62.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit amounted to 1.95 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with the adjusted net profit margin rising from 5.3% to 6.4% [1] Business Performance - The Tmall Health platform continued to develop steadily, with annual GMV maintaining robust growth [1] - The number of active users on the platform continued to increase during the reporting period [1]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reached RMB 30,598.3 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%[4] - Net profit for the same period was RMB 1,432.0 million, showing a significant increase of 62.2% compared to the previous year[4] - Adjusted net profit amounted to RMB 1,949.7 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.6%, with the adjusted net profit margin rising from 5.3% to 6.4%[4] - Gross profit rose by 26.1% to RMB 7,432.1 million, with a gross margin of 24.3% compared to 21.8% in the prior year[21] - The adjusted net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 1,949.7 million, a 35.6% increase from RMB 1,437.9 million in the previous year[21] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the year was RMB 1,432,427 thousand, a significant increase of 62.1% compared to RMB 883,477 thousand in 2024[52] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 8.91 from RMB 6.29, reflecting a growth of 41.6%[52] - The group's profit before tax for 2025 was RMB 1,432,427,000, a significant increase of 62.2% compared to RMB 883,477,000 in 2024[73] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the pharmaceutical self-operated business reached RMB 26,124,420,000, growing by 10.0% year-on-year, driven by an expanded product range and improved user experience[23] - Revenue from the pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business totaled RMB 3,588,499,000, reflecting a significant increase of 54.0% year-on-year[24] - Revenue from healthcare and digital services decreased by 7.5% to RMB 885,373 from RMB 957,838 in 2024[63] User Engagement and Growth - The annual active user count on the Tmall Health platform continued to increase, contributing to a healthy growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume)[8] - The number of online main merchants on the Tmall Health platform grew by 35% year-on-year to 48,300, while the number of SKUs increased by over 91% to 133 million[8] - The self-operated SKU count rose by 33.6% to 1.23 million, enhancing user experience for chronic disease patients[9] - The annual GMV of the Tmall Health platform increased significantly, with active online merchants growing by 35% to 48,300 and online SKUs rising over 91% to 133 million as of March 31, 2025[12] Operational Efficiency and Technology - The company is actively exploring AI applications in healthcare, aligning with national policies to enhance efficiency and service quality in the healthcare sector[7] - The group is committed to building a smart healthcare ecosystem by integrating AI technology with comprehensive pharmaceutical services[20] - The company is committed to leveraging digital technology and operations to provide accessible and efficient healthcare services to millions of families[10] Healthcare Services and Initiatives - The company has signed contracts with nearly 240,000 healthcare professionals to provide online health consultation services[10] - The group expanded its internet hospital services, successfully diversifying into multiple specialties, enhancing patient management and education[16] - The group actively engaged in social responsibility initiatives, providing medical support to vulnerable groups across 31 provinces and regions in China[19] Financial Position and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were RMB 2,218,296,000, a decrease from RMB 3,490,169,000 as of March 31, 2024[38] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the year ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 1,395,033,000, compared to RMB 1,079,832,000 in 2024, representing an increase of 29.2%[39] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 2,596,482,000 for the year ended March 31, 2025, down from RMB 4,880,900,000 in 2024, indicating a reduction of 46.7%[41] - Net cash used in financing activities was RMB 72,517,000 for the year ended March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 1,982,395,000 in 2024, showing a significant decrease of 96.3%[42] - The company had no outstanding borrowings as of March 31, 2025, maintaining a capital debt ratio of zero[43] Employee and Corporate Governance - The total employee cost for the year was RMB 1,067.9 million, slightly down from RMB 1,097.3 million in the previous year[47] - The company adopted the 2024 Share Award Scheme, which is similar in major aspects to the 2014 Share Award Scheme, ensuring consistency in share reward practices[47] - The company is committed to maintaining high standards of corporate governance to protect shareholder interests and enhance shareholder value[82] - The board has confirmed compliance with the standard code for securities trading during the reporting period[83] Other Financial Information - The company reported no significant investments, acquisitions, or disposals of subsidiaries during the reporting period[49] - The company does not have any significant contingent liabilities or pledged assets as of March 31, 2025[44] - The company had no revenue from any single external customer accounting for 10% or more of total revenue for the year ended March 31, 2025[62] - The company has not experienced any impact on its financial position or performance due to the recent accounting standard amendments[59] - The company has chosen not to disclose remaining performance obligations due to their short-term nature[66]