Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on July 29, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.15% to 25,524.45 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.35% to 5,644.38 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.34% to 9,145.92 points [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks remained strong, while major tech and financial stocks showed weakness. Notable individual stock movements included Alibaba and BYD rising slightly, while Xiaomi dropped over 2.5% and Meituan and Kuaishou fell over 0.5% [1] Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has significantly increased its investment in the Hong Kong stock market this year, with a net purchase of HKD 12.72 billion on July 29. Cumulatively, southbound capital has net inflows exceeding HKD 840 billion this year, marking a historical high for annual net inflows [2] Key Messages 1. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported that the average daily trading volume for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 240.2 billion, a substantial increase of 118% year-on-year. The trading volume for ETFs surged to HKD 33.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 184% due to the expansion of the ETF interconnection plan and the continuous launch of new ETF products [3] 2. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the implementation of a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, with the first licenses expected to be issued early next year. The stablecoins backed by offshore RMB must clearly define their use cases and reserve assets [3] 3. Major banks in Hong Kong have begun integrating Alibaba's AI technology, with Alibaba Cloud winning a project with China Construction Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China applying Alibaba's Qwen model for smart risk control. This marks the first deep collaboration between national financial institutions and Alibaba in five years [3] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that the mid-year earnings for Hong Kong stocks will be concentrated in release around mid to late August 2025. The overall revenue growth rate for the Hang Seng Index is expected to significantly increase compared to the same period last year, although profit growth may moderate. There is an enhanced confidence trend in certain sectors such as new consumption, technology, and pharmaceuticals, with upward revisions in earnings expectations prior to financial disclosures [4]

Group 1 - The macro environment is improving, with growth sectors becoming market focal points, and the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its upward trend due to multiple supportive factors [1] - Despite uncertainties in the short-term US-China trade negotiations affecting risk appetite and profit expectations, positive factors are accumulating to support further upward movement in the Hong Kong market [1] - The mid-term perspective indicates that policy efforts will drive fundamental recovery, and with continuous improvement in liquidity, the valuation center of Hong Kong stocks may rise, particularly in the technology sector benefiting from accelerated AI applications [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry selection, high dividend sectors and essential consumer goods can serve as defensive positions amid expected market volatility in the third quarter [2] - The third quarter may provide good opportunities for positioning, especially if the trend of expansion and increased allocation in Hong Kong stocks is established [2] - There is potential for increasing allocations in technology and consumer sectors, focusing on recovery opportunities in the second half of the real estate cycle, including internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, and mass consumer goods [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) for internet AI, the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) for innovative pharmaceuticals, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) for new consumption paradigms [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on May 19, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.81% at 23,156.27 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.02%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.82% [1] - Technology stocks generally declined, while gold stocks saw an increase. The biopharmaceutical sector showed mixed performance [1] - The Hang Seng Index Company announced changes to its indices, adding Midea Group and ZTO Express to the Hang Seng Index, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 83 to 85 [1] Group 2 - Cathay Securities noted that economic factors, liquidity, and technical aspects are crucial for the rise of the Hong Kong stock market. With substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations and a series of policy implementations, macroeconomic recovery is expected [2] - Domestic monetary easing measures have been implemented, maintaining liquidity, which may lead to continued inflows of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market. Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at historically low levels, indicating high medium to long-term investment value [2] Group 3 - Notable investment targets include: - Core broad-based Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng ETF (159920) - AI and platform economy: Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) - Core consumer assets in Hong Kong: Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) - Global pharmaceutical industry representation: Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) - Chinese AI technology concept companies: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) [3]

Group 1 - Geely Auto plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr, which will lead to Zeekr's privatization and delisting from the New York Stock Exchange [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission supports the return of quality Chinese concept stocks, indicating the start of a new wave of Chinese stock returns [1] - If all Chinese concept stocks that have achieved dual listings return, it could contribute an average daily trading volume of HKD 39.6 billion to the Hong Kong stock market, accounting for 37.2% of the overall daily trading volume [1] Group 2 - Three major sectors expected to benefit significantly include: 1. Technology and Internet leaders, such as Pinduoduo, which have high growth potential and innovation capabilities [2] 2. New biopharmaceutical companies that possess high technical barriers and long-term growth potential [2] 3. Consumer and new economy sectors, with successful listings of brands like Mixue Ice City validating the acceptance of emerging consumption in the Hong Kong market [2] Group 3 - Despite facing liquidity challenges from the return of large enterprises, the Hong Kong stock market is seen as the preferred choice for the return of Chinese concept stocks [3] - The Hong Kong market is expected to achieve an average daily trading volume of over HKD 300 billion in the next 3-5 years [3] - The return of Chinese concept stocks will not only shift capital market space but also drive the restructuring of the valuation system in the Hong Kong stock market [3]

值得关注的标的： 港股核心宽基：恒生ETF（159920） AI+平台经济：恒生科技指数ETF（513180） 网罗港股消费核心资产：港股消费ETF（513230） 5月12日，港股主要指数集体大幅高开，恒生指数高开1.38%，恒生科技指数高开2.15%。板块方面，消 费板块涨幅靠前，中证港股通消费主题指数高开1.66%。相关热门ETF中，港股消费ETF（513230）现 已涨1.05%，成交额突破3000万元，盘中交投持续活跃。 全球医药全产业链代表：恒生医药ETF（159892） 政策组合拳落地，并重总量与结构，旨在稳市场、稳经济。近日高层召开介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳 市场稳预期"有关情况的新闻发布会。总量政策主要针对活跃资本市场、降低融资成本、释放地产需 求。结构性政策主要致力于推动科技产业升级、促进消费、提振股市、稳定楼市、稳定金融体系、以及 为困难企业纾困。类平准基金相关表述积极，有望夯实A股和港股的股指下沿，支撑资金对大中华资产 的风险偏好。 汇集中国AI科技概念公司：恒生互联网ETF（513330） 华泰证券认为，港股或仍具相对收益，关注进口替代方向。（1）产业上，港股板块中，关税敏感性较 高 ...