海外再传鸽派信号，美联储官员近期称鉴于劳动力市场走弱，短期内仍有进一步降息的空间，降息预期 的提升显著提振市场信心，近期持续调整的港股市场迎来反弹行情。 据美国劳工部数据，美国9月失业率回升至4.4%，升至2021年10月以来最高。从芝商所美联储观察工具 的数据来看，美联储于12月降息25bp的概率当前接近70%，而该数据在一周前一度低至30%。 港股创新药产业：恒生医药ETF（159892） 港股市场AI主线：恒生科技指数ETF（513180） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 展望后市，美联储降息节奏虽在短期内有所扰动，但在美联储降息背景下，外资回流或超预期，叠加南 向资金持续增持，港股市场有望迎来流动性的进一步宽松，对于流动性更敏感的科技、医药板块或持续 受益。 【相关ETF】 ...

申万宏源表示，经过10余年的发展，中国创新药临床实验数量已稳居全球第一，在从"快速跟随"向"创 新引领"的研发风格的转变中，国内药企凭借研发效率上的巨大优势，在新靶点、新技术平台、高难适 应症上均有大量布局。 11月18日早盘，港股关键指数再度调整，聚焦创新药产业的恒生生物科技指数逆势上涨，百济神州盘中 涨超4%，信达生物、先声药业、亚盛医药、药明生物等涨幅靠前，恒生医药ETF（159892）一度涨超 1%。 港交所于10月14日公告计划推出恒生生物科技指数期货，进一步优化其不断拓展的衍生产品生态圈，该 新期货合约将于2025年11月28日开始交易，将为投资者提供精准的风险管理工具，恒生生物科技也将成 为港股医药、医疗板块当前唯一有指数期货的指数。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has diminished, leading to significant adjustments in key indices of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index experienced a rapid rebound [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, launched by the Hang Seng Index Company in 2019, reflects the overall performance of the biotechnology sector in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The index not only focuses on innovative drugs but also incorporates upstream CXO companies, providing a more comprehensive view of the entire innovative drug industry chain [1] - Notable stocks leading the index's performance include Kingsoft Biotech, JD Health, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and 3SBio [1] Group 2: Derivative Products - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced plans to launch futures for the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index on October 14, 2023, enhancing its expanding ecosystem of derivative products [1] - The new futures contract is set to begin trading on November 28, 2025, offering investors precise risk management tools [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index is the only index in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical and healthcare sector that has index futures available [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Medical Health R Index (480016) closed at 7616.59 points, up 0.5%, with a trading volume of 25.943 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.88% on November 12. The index saw 27 stocks rise, led by BeiGene with a 5.62% increase, while 21 stocks fell, with Tigermed leading the decline at 1.68% [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Medical Health R Index reported a net inflow of 537 million yuan from main funds, while retail and speculative funds experienced net outflows of 264 million yuan and 273 million yuan, respectively [1]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include WuXi AppTec, Hengrui Medicine, and Mindray Medical, with respective weights of 13.66%, 11.00%, and 7.57% [1]. Group 2: Stock Details - BeiGene (688235) had the highest increase at 5.62%, closing at 293.62 yuan with a market capitalization of 452.37 billion yuan [1]. - Hengrui Medicine (600276) saw a 1.70% increase, closing at 62.10 yuan with a market capitalization of 412.17 billion yuan [1]. - WuXi AppTec (603259) experienced a slight decrease of 0.16%, closing at 92.35 yuan with a market capitalization of 275.55 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Hengrui Medicine had a main fund net inflow of 2.74 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 60.98 million yuan [2]. - BeiGene also experienced a main fund net inflow of 1.81 million yuan, with speculative funds facing a net outflow of 172 million yuan [2]. - The overall fund flow indicates a mixed sentiment among investors, with main funds showing some interest while retail and speculative funds are withdrawing [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.51% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83%. Notable stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor and BeiGene showed mixed performance, while the market anticipates a positive long-term outlook for innovative drugs despite recent adjustments in the healthcare insurance directory [1]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.51% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83% [1]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor opened down 3.87%, reporting Q3 sales revenue of $635 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [1]. - BeiGene opened up 3.02%, with total revenue for the first nine months approximately $3.845 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43% [1]. - The Hang Seng Biotech Index opened lower but showed narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF experiencing a slight decline [1]. Healthcare Insurance Directory Adjustment - This year marks the 8th adjustment of the healthcare insurance directory since the establishment of the National Healthcare Security Administration, with the notable addition of a commercial health insurance innovative drug directory [1]. Innovative Drug Market Outlook - The innovative drug sector has experienced a significant correction over the past three months, but the market expectations have lowered without impacting the fundamentals [1]. - There are multiple catalysts expected in the short term, including continued growth in Q3 performance and ongoing business development (BD) opportunities [1]. - Long-term prospects for innovative drug companies are expected to improve, maintaining a high level of enthusiasm for overseas expansion [1]. Investment Thesis - Dongwu Securities believes that innovative drugs will remain a key investment theme through 2026 due to their rising international status, explosive growth in overseas business development, significant market capitalization potential, and a transition to profitability [1]. - Key focus areas for innovative drugs include the next generation of ADC+2.0 IO and small nucleic acids [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.2% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.2%, indicating mixed performance in the Hong Kong stock market as it enters a year-end adjustment phase, but remains in a long-term upward trend [1] Market Performance - Bank stocks led the gains, with Huishang Bank rising over 3% [1] - Gold stocks experienced declines, with WanGuo Gold Group and LingBao Gold dropping over 5%, and Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining falling more than 4% [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite a hawkish stance from Powell regarding interest rate cuts, the market's expectations differ, particularly with ongoing government shutdowns and data shortages [1] - The Fed's data-dependent approach suggests that a rate cut in December remains a high probability, especially with weak employment trends and moderate inflation [1] Long-term Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of Hong Kong tech stocks is seen as attractive, with expectations of marginal recovery in EPS for Q1 next year [1] - The end of intense competition among tech leaders is anticipated, with continued optimism for AI technology [1] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector shows a clear upward trend, with future business development expected to catalyze stock price increases [1] Related ETFs - AI Full Industry Chain: Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) [1] - Leading Pharmaceuticals: Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting, with a 99.9% probability according to the CME's FedWatch tool, and a 91.0% chance of further cuts in December [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a rate cut in its October meeting, with significant market consensus [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are highlighted, with some officials advocating for cautious cuts to avoid inflation rebound, while others support more aggressive cuts to address economic downturn risks [1] Group 2: Impact on Emerging Markets and Assets - If the rate cut pace exceeds expectations, emerging market assets, such as Chinese stocks (A+H) and bonds, may benefit from increased capital inflows due to narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. [1] - The anticipated rate cuts may lead to a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market to foreign investors, which could improve liquidity [1] Group 3: ETFs Benefiting from Market Trends - ETFs focusing on high-growth and high-resilience sectors, such as the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), and Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (159892), are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions created by the anticipated rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, represented by the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, experienced a significant increase, nearing a 3% rise, driven by active trading in the largest ETF, the Hang Seng Medicine ETF (159892) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index showed strong performance with a nearly 3% increase in the afternoon session [1] - The Hang Seng Medicine ETF (159892) is the largest in its category, demonstrating active trading and good liquidity [1] - Notable individual stocks include MicroPort leading the gains, along with significant increases in WuXi AppTec, Ascentage Pharma, Kelun-Biotech, and JD Health [1] Group 2: Catalysts and Future Outlook - Data disclosure from the ESMO conference (October 17-21) is anticipated to be a key catalyst, with the potential for innovative drug data to exceed expectations, further boosting the sector [1] - Huafu Securities indicates that Chinese innovative drugs are undergoing a "quantitative change leading to qualitative change," with a positive outlook on the industry trend over the next 5-10 years [1] - Factors such as business development overseas, continuous data catalysts, and the ramp-up of new product sales are expected to drive the rise of innovative drugs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to overseas news such as tariffs and the U.S. government shutdown, impacting the performance of the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector which has seen a decline over the past four days but is now experiencing a technical rebound [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) rose over 2% during the technical rebound, while the AI Medical Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (520510) increased nearly 3% [1] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF has seen three consecutive days of fund subscriptions, accumulating over 200 million in subscriptions [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Dongwu Securities indicates that the impact of tariff policies on China's pharmaceutical industry is limited, as the capital market has already anticipated the drug tariffs, leading to a sufficient price response [1] - Long-term prospects for domestic CRO/CDMO companies remain strong, with global competitiveness expected to continue despite short-term tariff policies [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. heavily relies on Chinese raw material drug supplies, making it difficult to decouple in the short to medium term [1] - The impact of tariffs on medical devices is minimal, with a positive outlook for domestic substitution and self-sufficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector experienced a rapid surge, led by MicroPort Robotics, with significant gains in various healthcare stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment towards innovative drugs and healthcare technology [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector saw a strong rally, with MicroPort Robotics leading the gains [1] - Other notable performers included JD Health, WuXi AppTec, Kingstar Bio, and Crystal International, with the CXO + AI healthcare-focused Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (520510) rising over 2% [1] - The Hang Seng Medical ETF (159892), which focuses on innovative drugs, increased by more than 1.5% [1] Group 2: Company Developments - MicroPort Robotics announced that its core product, the Tumi surgical robot, has accumulated over 100 commercial orders globally, with nearly 80 units installed, maintaining its position as the leading domestic brand [1] - The commercialization process for the Tumi robot is entering a phase of full acceleration [1] Group 3: Upcoming Events and Collaborations - The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting will take place from October 17 to 21 in Berlin, Germany, with a focus on business development (BD) collaborations among Chinese pharmaceutical companies [1] - Previous large transactions, such as the one between 3SBio and Pfizer, have validated the potential for domestic innovative drugs to enter international markets, positioning ESMO as a potential window for new authorizations [1] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the upward trend in the innovative drug industry remains unchanged, with a historically dense period for global innovative drug product authorization collaborations occurring towards the end of the year [1] - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to see continued market activity driven by ongoing BD catalysts [1]