"内卷"终非长久计，创新才是硬道理。所谓"反内卷"，不是不重视价格因素，而是要推动竞争从"卷价 格"到"卷价值"跃迁。政策设计中，"新药不集采、集采非新药"规则更加细化，测算下来，创新药研发 投入回收周期缩短了3—5年。此外，就在集采新规发布前5天，国家医保局启动2025年医保药品目录调 整，首次新增商保创新药目录，创新药产业迎来前所未有的红利期。当然，政策托举之外，关键还是行 业自身以真正的创新打破需求天花板、发现新蓝海，同时也需要贯穿行业上下游、链接产学研各方的系 统性创新布局。 众所周知，创新药研发难度大、投入高，一旦成功，回报也高。作为经营主体，药企不能再满足于通过 仿制和外延式扩张来分食存量市场，而应大力投入原研药、首仿药、高端制剂、创新医疗器械的研发， 奋力跨越技术壁垒。当产品拥有更高的技术壁垒和临床价值，自然就能摆脱低价困局，在市场中赢得主 动。比技术创新更加重要的，是构建一个更健康的创新和竞争生态。这需要加强知识产权保护，让创新 者的投入获得合理回报，激发研发热情；需要深化审评审批制度改革，让创新产品更快惠及患者；需要 促进临床与研究机构的紧密合作，打通成果转化的"最后一公里"；需要强化质量评 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health (00241) shares rose over 5%, reaching HKD 6.14, with a trading volume of HKD 14.52 billion, following an upgrade in revenue and profit growth guidance by Citi [1] Group 1: Financial Guidance - Citi raised Alibaba Health's revenue growth forecast for FY2026 to 10%-20% from the previous 5%-10% [1] - The adjusted net profit growth guidance was also increased to 20%-30% from 10%-20% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The strong sales performance of original and innovative drugs, particularly GLP-1 medications, exceeded expectations [1] - The trend of prescription drug outflow is accelerating and appears sustainable, with Alibaba Health and JD Health being the primary beneficiaries [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the accelerated shift of original drugs from "in-hospital" to "out-of-hospital" markets, Citi adjusted Alibaba Health's net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 upwards by 8% and 12% respectively [1] - The target price for Alibaba Health was raised from HKD 4.8 to HKD 6.5, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Insights - The current global trade environment is characterized by rising tariff barriers and a complex landscape for Chinese companies expanding overseas, leading to significant changes in export structures and logistics demands [1][2][5] Trade Environment and Export Structure - The fluctuation of global tariffs, particularly changes in U.S. trade policies, has notably impacted the export paths and logistics choices for Chinese enterprises, with varying effects across different industries [2][3] - The e-commerce sector has seen a marked decline in exports due to the U.S. cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages valued under $800, which previously fueled rapid growth in Chinese e-commerce exports [2][3] - In contrast, emerging industries such as new energy and biopharmaceuticals are becoming new growth drivers for exports, indicating a shift in China's export structure towards heavier and more specialized goods [1][3] Logistics Demand and Service Requirements - The demand for logistics services is evolving from a price-driven approach to a service-oriented model, as companies increasingly require integrated and resilient logistics solutions to navigate complex international environments [5][6] - Companies are now focusing on "brand export," necessitating higher standards for overseas operations and local delivery, while facing challenges such as policy risks and cultural differences in emerging markets [5][6] Technological Advancements in Logistics - The logistics industry is rapidly advancing towards automation and smart technologies, with innovations such as AI, robotics, and IoT playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency and competitive advantage [6] - DHL is actively investing in technology to improve warehouse operations and last-mile delivery, utilizing automated guided vehicles and AI models to better predict market demand and optimize transportation arrangements [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Credit Lyonnais has raised the adjusted net profit forecasts for JD Health (06618) by 5% and 6% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, reflecting better cost control [1] - The target price for JD Health has been increased from HKD 45 to HKD 56, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1] - JD Health is identified as a major beneficiary of JD Group's investment strategy focused on increasing app user growth [1] Group 2 - JD Health's performance in the first half of 2025 is reported to be strong, with total revenue growing by 23% year-on-year, reaching RMB 34.8 billion [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to the successful 618 shopping festival, particularly in the sales of nutritional health products and medical devices [1] - The outflow of original research drugs from hospital channels continues to support the demand for pharmaceuticals [1] Group 3 - The adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by 57% year-on-year, reaching RMB 2.5 billion, driven by improved gross margins and strict control over investments in immediate demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Suisse has raised the adjusted net profit forecasts for JD Health (06618) for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 6% respectively, reflecting better cost control, and increased the target price from HKD 45 to HKD 56 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD Health's total revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by 23% year-on-year, reaching RMB 34.8 billion, driven by strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, particularly in the sales of nutritional health products and medical devices [1] - The adjusted EBITDA is projected to increase by 57% year-on-year, reaching RMB 2.5 billion, supported by improved gross margins and strict control over investments in immediate demand [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - JD Health is identified as a major beneficiary of JD Group's aggressive investment strategy in app user growth [1] - The continued outflow of original research drugs from hospital channels is further supporting the demand for pharmaceuticals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Suisse expects JD Health to show strong performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue projected to grow by 23% year-on-year to reach 34.8 billion yuan, driven by the successful 618 shopping festival, particularly in the nutrition and medical device categories [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for JD Health is expected to reach 34.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23%, with a 20% increase in Q2 and a 26% increase in Q1 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to grow by 57% year-on-year to 2.5 billion yuan, supported by improved gross margins and strict control over investments in real-time demand [1] Profit Forecasts - Credit Suisse has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for JD Health by 5% and 6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to better cost control [1] - The target price for JD Health has been increased from 45 HKD to 56 HKD [1] Market Position - JD Health is identified as a major beneficiary of JD's aggressive investment strategy in app user growth [1] - The company maintains an "outperform" rating according to Credit Suisse [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tariff policies from the U.S. are increasing economic uncertainty and negatively impacting the global pharmaceutical market, prompting Chinese pharmaceutical companies to seek ways to navigate these challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Chinese Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2024, China's total pharmaceutical import and export volume is projected to reach $199.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with exports amounting to $107.96 billion, up 5.9%, marking the end of a two-year decline [1]. - The export of traditional Chinese medicine products decreased by 3.3% to $5.28 billion, while exports of Western medicine products increased by 5.7% to $53.96 billion, and medical device exports rose by 7.3% to $48.75 billion [1]. - Chinese pharmaceutical companies primarily focus on the domestic market, with limited export scale to the U.S., and the short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies is expected to be minimal due to temporary exemptions [4]. Group 2: U.S. Pharmaceutical Market Challenges - The U.S. pharmaceutical market is facing significant challenges, with a 25% tariff potentially increasing annual drug costs by $51 billion and raising drug prices by up to 12.9% if costs are fully passed on [3]. - The U.S. is experiencing shortages of hundreds of drugs, including critical emergency medications, due to various factors such as increased prescription volumes and manufacturing delays [3]. - The U.S. heavily relies on imports for 80% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients, making it vulnerable to tariff impacts that could disrupt its medical supply chain [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are advised to enhance their independent research and innovation capabilities to maintain competitiveness amid uncertainties [6]. - Companies should optimize their global presence, focusing on stabilizing markets in Europe and the U.S. while also exploring emerging markets [6]. - There is a need to improve product structures and tap into domestic market growth opportunities, such as those arising from the aging population [6].

金十数据4月14日讯，近日，京东买药平台上原研药、海外保健品等多个品类销量倍增。针对部分消费 者对价格的担忧，京东买药相关负责人介绍，依托覆盖全国30个GSP药品仓、90%以上订单次日达的供 应链网络，京东买药全力保障原研药及海外保健品稳定供给，不会涨价。京东买药表示，已有不少医疗 器械的外贸企业正在接洽沟通。 原研药、海外保健品需求大涨，京东买药：全力保障供给，不会涨价 ...