Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer reported a revenue of 23.94 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23.04% to 5.789 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.464 RMB per share, up 24.4% from the same period last year [1] - The unaudited revenue from beer operations reached 23.161 billion RMB, marking a 2.6% increase year-on-year, with beer sales volume rising by 2.2% to approximately 6.487 million kiloliters [1] - High-end beer products saw significant growth, with sales of premium and above beer increasing by over 10% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategy - The entry of companies like Wuliangye and Zhenjiu into the beer market indicates the attractiveness of the beer industry, with the company believing that all enterprises can leverage their strengths in competition [1] - The company is focusing on high-end product expansion as a primary strategy, with brands like "Heineken" and "Old Snow" showing substantial sales growth [1] - The company has ceased operations at two breweries as part of its capacity optimization strategy, maintaining 60 operational breweries with an annual capacity of approximately 19.2 million kiloliters by June 2025 [1] Group 3: Product Development and Consumer Trends - The company is embracing new consumer trends by developing a variety of specialty beers, including German wheat beer, tea beer, and fruit beer, to meet personalized and differentiated consumer demands [2] - Online business is rapidly growing, with overall GMV for online and instant retail businesses increasing by nearly 40% and 50% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The company plans to strengthen partnerships with leading companies in the instant retail sector, recognizing its significant growth potential and consumer stickiness [2] Group 4: White Spirit Business - The white spirit business reported revenue of 0.781 billion RMB, down from 1.178 billion RMB in the previous year, with the major product "Abstract" contributing nearly 80% of this revenue [3] - The company is focusing on long-term strategies to strengthen its white spirit business, including price restructuring and cost control measures [4] - The company aims to enhance the coverage and sales of mid-range and light bottle products through its established beer distribution channels [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 35.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current price of HKD 28.28 [1][6][15]. Core Insights - The company has successfully implemented a high-end strategy and the "Three Precision" approach, resulting in a revenue of RMB 239.42 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. EBIT grew by 20.8% to RMB 76.91 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23.0% to RMB 57.89 billion [3][8]. - The beer segment continues to focus on high-end products, with revenue reaching RMB 231.61 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year, and sales volume increasing by 2.2% to 6.487 million tons. The average selling price rose by 0.4% to RMB 3,570 per ton, driven by the growth of premium products [4][10]. - The white wine segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 33.7% to RMB 7.81 billion, and EBITDA dropping by 47.1% to RMB 2.18 billion. The company is actively adjusting its strategy to enhance the performance of its white wine products [5][14]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 48.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 24.2%, up 4.4 percentage points [8]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be RMB 56.46 billion, with projections of RMB 57.02 billion and RMB 62.14 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][15]. - The financial outlook includes a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to one-time contributions and ongoing adjustments in the white wine business [6][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [6][11]. Core Views - The beer business has shown growth in both volume and price, with a revenue increase of 2.5% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by the company's embrace of new retail channels and strong consumption during the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The white liquor business has faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 33.7% year-on-year in 1H25, primarily due to industry adjustments and policy impacts [2][10]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% in the beer segment, aided by cost reductions and operational efficiency measures [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a total revenue of 239.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57.9 billion CNY, up 22.8% [1][9]. - The core EBIT for the same period was 71.1 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue rose by 2.5% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 2.2% and price per ton rising by 0.4% [1][9]. - The growth in sales volume was attributed to the company's strategic focus on non-traditional retail channels and effective inventory management [1][9]. - High-end products like Heineken maintained strong growth, with sales growth exceeding 20% despite a high base from the previous year [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated 7.8 billion CNY in revenue, down 33.7% year-on-year, with a significant impact on profitability due to fixed cost dilution [2][10]. - The white liquor business accounted for only 3.3% of total revenue, limiting its overall impact on the company's performance [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 388.2 billion CNY, 398.6 billion CNY, and 409.6 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 2.7%, and 2.8% [3][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 59.0 billion CNY, 59.6 billion CNY, and 64.1 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 1.0%, and 7.6% respectively [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to China Resources Beer with a target price of HK$33.50 [7][10][12] Core Insights - In 1H25, China Resources Beer reported total revenue of RMB23,942 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, which aligns with expectations. Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit rose to RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, marking increases of 11.2% and 23.0% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations [8][11] - Beer sales increased by 2.6% year-on-year to RMB23,161 million, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of 0.4% and volume growth of 2.2%. The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, driven by stabilized ASP due to premiumization and lower raw material prices, which saw an average unit cost decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [9][11] - Baijiu sales, however, declined by 34% year-on-year to RMB781 million, falling short of expectations. Despite the GPM remaining unchanged year-on-year, EBIT turned negative at RMB152 million, compared to a profit of RMB48 million in 1H24, reflecting the impact of anti-extravagance policies starting from 2Q25 in China [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 was RMB23,942 million, up 0.8% YoY [8] - Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit were RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, up 11.2% and 23.0% YoY, respectively [8] - Beer sales increased 2.6% YoY to RMB23,161 million, with ASP up 0.4% and volume up 2.2% [9] Margin Analysis - GPM improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% due to premiumization and lower raw material costs [9] - Baijiu sales dropped 34% YoY to RMB781 million, with EBIT turning negative at RMB152 million [9] Valuation and Forecast - The target price is set at HK$33.50 based on a 17.0x average P/E for 2025-26 [10][12] - Bottom-line forecasts for 2025-27 have been revised up by 12%, 3%, and 2% respectively [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [2][8] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in its high-end segment, with earnings exceeding expectations and significant growth in profitability [2][8] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23.0% [2][4] - The interim dividend was set at 0.464 yuan per share, reflecting a 24.4% increase, with a payout ratio of 26% [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth: The company’s revenue for 2025H1 was 23.94 billion yuan, with EBIT at 7.69 billion yuan, marking a 20.8% increase, and net profit at 5.79 billion yuan, up 23.0% [2][4] - Beer sales volume reached 6.487 million kiloliters, a 2.2% increase, with an average price of 3,570.4 yuan per kiloliter, up 0.44% [8][10] - The beer business's EBIT margin improved, with a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [8][10] Business Segment Analysis - High-end product performance: Sales of premium and above products grew over 10%, while mid-to-low-end products saw slight increases due to a high base [8][10] - Cost management: The beer business achieved a cost reduction of 4.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [8][10] - White wine segment under pressure: Revenue from the white wine business fell by 34.0% to 0.781 billion yuan, primarily due to policy disruptions affecting consumption [8][10] Future Outlook - The company is focused on high-end product development and operational efficiency improvements through digitalization and cost management strategies [8][10] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 5.87 billion yuan, 6.40 billion yuan, and 6.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [8][10] - The target price is set at 40.00 HKD, with a corresponding PE ratio of approximately 20X for 2025E [4][8]

高盛发布研报称，高盛预期华润啤酒(00291)的啤酒业务在2025下半年将实现温和连续加速，政策影响 逐步正常化;而白酒业务在下半年可能仍构成潜在拖累。高盛对润啤12个月目标价现为37港元(之前为35 港元)，基于不变的19倍2026年预估市盈率，折现0.5年;重申"买入"评级。 高盛将润啤2025至2027年经常性每股盈利预测上调5%至6%，以反映以下因素：1)啤酒业务上，将2025 至2027年啤酒销售预估上调0.4%至2.3%，因原材料成本持续缓解及销售费用控制得宜，毛利率展望更 佳。高盛预期经常性销售及行政费用降低，销售费用减少，但经常性行政费用增加。因此，高盛将润啤 2025至2027年经常性息税前利润预估上调6.1%至6.3%;2)白酒业务：因政策负面影响，高盛下调销售预 估2%至6.7%，但预期毛利率将改善，也预期销售及行政费用增加，因行政费用上升，但被销售费用下 降所抵消;3)集团整体：高盛现预期2025年销售增长3.2%，经常性息税前利润增长11.9%(啤酒经常性息 税前利润增长18.2%)。 报告指，润啤今年上半年核心息税前利润超出预期，因成本利好及营运效率提升;该行又参加了润啤的 财报简 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，高盛预期华润啤酒(00291)的啤酒业务在2025下半年将实现温和连 续加速，政策影响逐步正常化;而白酒业务在下半年可能仍构成潜在拖累。高盛对润啤12个月目标价现 为37港元(之前为35港元)，基于不变的19倍2026年预估市盈率，折现0.5年;重申"买入"评级。 报告指，润啤今年上半年核心息税前利润超出预期，因成本利好及营运效率提升;该行又参加了润啤的 财报简报会，表示虽然宏观环境仍不稳定且通缩风险持续存在，但对润啤在高端化、市场份额增长及效 率提升方面的强劲执行力保持乐观。 高盛将润啤2025至2027年经常性每股盈利预测上调5%至6%，以反映以下因素：1)啤酒业务上，将2025 至2027年啤酒销售预估上调0.4%至2.3%，因原材料成本持续缓解及销售费用控制得宜，毛利率展望更 佳。高盛预期经常性销售及行政费用降低，销售费用减少，但经常性行政费用增加。因此，高盛将润啤 2025至2027年经常性息税前利润预估上调6.1%至6.3%;2)白酒业务：因政策负面影响，高盛下调销售预 估2%至6.7%，但预期毛利率将改善，也预期销售及行政费用增加，因行政费用上升，但被销售费用 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，华润啤酒(00291)2025上半年啤酒销量增长优于行业，预期增长趋 势在下半年持续，尽管白酒复苏可能需要时间。该行亦预期下半年利润率继续扩张，并将2025年净利预 测上调7%，反映更好的毛利率趋势及一次性土地处置收益。里昂将润啤目标价从30.4港元上调至33.2港 元，采用啤酒业务9倍12个月远期EV/EBITDA及白酒业务10倍市盈率估值(倍数不变);维持跑赢大市评 级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，华润啤酒(00291)上半年业绩胜预期。次高档及以上啤酒销量 以中高单位数增长，带动平均售价提升。在十五五规划中，润啤将继续以喜力为核心，同时强化次高档 市场作为另一增长动力。该行预期白酒业务在下半年的调整阶段不会进一步恶化，但任何潜在减值仍须 视乎业务营运而定。维持对其"买入"评级;目标价由35港元降至33.8港元，以反映白酒业务疲弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais reports that China Resources Beer (00291) is expected to outperform the industry in beer sales growth in the first half of 2025, with a continued upward trend anticipated in the second half, despite the recovery of the liquor market taking time [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - The firm anticipates continued expansion of profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 7%, reflecting better gross margin trends and one-time land disposal gains [1] Group 2: Valuation and Ratings - Credit Lyonnais has increased the target price for China Resources Beer from HKD 30.4 to HKD 33.2, using a 9x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA for the beer business and a 10x P/E for the liquor business, with multiples remaining unchanged [1] - The firm maintains an "outperform" rating for the stock [1]