稀有金属ETF基金（561800）跟踪的CS稀金属指数作为目前市面上能源金属含量（"锂"和"钴"）最高的 指数之一，有望持续受益。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 基本面方面，自从去年5-6月碳酸锂期货触及6万元/吨左右的低位以来，过去半年多时间里，在国内碳 酸锂相关矿企停产检修以及储能行业高景气带来的对碳酸锂需求快速增长的背景下，碳酸锂期货持续上 涨，去年年底已收至12万元/吨上方。今年开年以来，碳酸锂期货在多重因素的催化下继续快速上涨。 随着碳酸锂供给端资本开支高峰期的过去，再叠加新能源及AI产业链的高景气度，市场普遍认为2026 年有望成为碳酸锂的供需转折之年，蛰伏多年的碳酸锂板块有望重新表现。 至于另一能源金属"钴"，过去一年时间在主要资源国刚果金持续加强出口管控的背景下，钴价持续上 涨。当前在刚果金"钴"出口配额受限的背景下，未来大概率仍维持供不应求的供需格局，钴价仍有向上 空间。 截至2026年1月7日，稀有金属ETF基金近1年累计上涨105.92%。该基金紧密跟踪中证稀有金属主题指 数，指数前两大权重占比为锂（33.67%）、稀土（24.63%）。 资料显 ...

北京时间12月13日，江西铜业（600362.SH）将收购英国上市公司SolGold Plc的要约价格提高至每股28便士，整体估值达8.42亿英镑（约11.3亿美元），标志 着这场备受瞩目的全球资源争夺战取得决定性进展。 这不仅是2025年末全球矿业领域最重磅的交易之一，更被市场解读为"打响2026全球铜矿争夺战第一枪"的战略宣言。 其核心逻辑在于，在全球能源转型导 致铜需求激增、优质资源日益稀缺的背景下，中国企业正以前所未有的决心和策略，争夺未来核心资源的控制权。 冶炼产能与资源自给率的巨大反差：江西铜业作为全球领先的铜冶炼巨头，2024年阴极铜冶炼产能高达230万吨/年，但其自有矿山年产铜精矿含铜量仅约20 万吨，原料自给率严重不足。 这种"来料加工"模式导致其主营产品阴极铜的毛利率长期在3?%的低位徘徊，盈利能力远低于以自有资源驱动的同行。 行业盈利压力加剧：2025年以来，全球铜精矿供应紧张而冶炼产能扩张，导致加工费（TC/RC）现货价格持续下滑甚至出现负值，极大挤压了以冶炼为主的 企业的利润空间。 这迫使江西铜业必须从源头，矿产资源上寻求根本性突破。 "资源为王"的长期战略：公司管理层明确表示坚持" ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Gold International's IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant event in the global gold market, reflecting strong investor interest in resource-based assets and setting a new record for mining sector financing in 2023 [4][5]. Group 1: IPO Details - Zijin Gold International debuted on September 30, 2023, with an opening price of HKD 111.5 per share, a 55.75% increase from the offering price of HKD 71.59, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding HKD 290 billion [4]. - The IPO raised over USD 3 billion, making it the largest global IPO since May 2023 and the second-largest in the Hong Kong market this year, following CATL [4][5]. - Over 20 top-tier institutional investors, including GIC, Hillhouse Capital, BlackRock, and Schroders, subscribed to approximately USD 1.6 billion worth of shares, indicating strong long-term confidence in the company's fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Company Overview - Zijin Gold International operates as an independent platform for Zijin Mining, focusing on the entire gold value chain from exploration to sales, with assets in key gold-rich regions including Central Asia, South America, Africa, and Oceania [5][7]. - The company holds interests in eight high-quality mines, including the Gilar/Talor mine in Tajikistan and the Buriticá mine in Colombia, positioning it as a "growth engine" in the global gold mining industry [5][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Zijin Gold International's revenue is projected to grow from USD 1.818 billion to USD 2.99 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.2%, while net profit is expected to surge from USD 184 million to USD 481 million, reflecting a CAGR of 61.9% [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of USD 1.997 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, and net profit of USD 520 million, up 142.6% year-on-year [9]. - The company's all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for 2024 is projected to be USD 1,458 per ounce, ranking it among the lowest in the top fifteen gold producers globally [8]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global gold market is experiencing a "golden era," with demand expected to grow at a steady rate of 3.2% annually over the next three years, driven by central banks and investment in gold as a safe haven [10]. - Zijin Gold International's listing is seen as a milestone for capitalizing on its resources and expanding globally, with plans to invest IPO proceeds into existing mine expansions and new resource explorations [10]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising gold prices, which are projected to reach USD 2,386.4 per ounce in 2024 and USD 3,387.7 per ounce by 2026 [9].

Group 1 - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's strong rhetoric towards China regarding rare earth supplies has garnered international attention, using rare earths as leverage against China [1] - China holds an unassailable dominant position in the global rare earth industry, controlling approximately 70% of the market share and possessing advanced technology in rare earth processing [3][5] - The European attempt to establish a "rare earth alliance" to bypass China has not made substantial progress and appears ineffective against China's established rare earth traceability management [7] Group 2 - Von der Leyen's shift in attitude after meeting with the U.S. government highlights deep-seated rifts between Europe and the U.S., as the Inflation Reduction Act attracts significant investments to North America [9] - The reality of "resource dependence" exposes the EU's lack of strategic autonomy and its inability to effectively counter U.S. economic pressures while being unable to challenge China's core resource advantages [9][11] - China's resource advantages and strong market appeal create a solid defensive barrier, revealing the fragility of the so-called "alliance" between the U.S. and Europe when faced with individual interests [11]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining, led by Chen Jinghe, is facing challenges due to recent seismic events at its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in Africa, while simultaneously planning to spin off its gold subsidiary to capitalize on rising gold prices and enhance its financial position [1][4][5]. Group 1: Copper Mining Challenges - The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine has experienced multiple seismic events, leading to temporary halts in mining operations, although no injuries have been reported [2][10]. - The mine's production guidance for 2025 has been revised down from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons due to the flooding caused by the seismic events, which is expected to impact Zijin's copper output by approximately 44,000-93,000 tons this year [13]. - The Kamoa-Kakula mine contributed 1.72 billion yuan in profit last year, accounting for only 5% of the company's total profit, indicating that while the impact is significant, it is manageable [13]. Group 2: Gold Business Expansion - Zijin Mining is planning to spin off its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with net assets exceeding 20 billion yuan, aiming to strengthen its gold business [4][14]. - The gold market is thriving, with Zijin Gold reporting a net profit of 4.46 billion yuan last year, nearly doubling year-on-year [16]. - The planned spin-off will include eight large gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania, with a total resource volume of 1,800 tons and an annual production of 46 tons [18][20]. Group 3: Financial Strategy and Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its financial foundation by leveraging the rising gold prices through the spin-off, which could raise significant capital to support its operations [34]. - As of March 31, Zijin Mining had a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.89% and cash reserves of 40.22 billion yuan, indicating a solid financial position despite the challenges faced [34]. - The management is focused on improving efficiency and reducing costs, with a goal to recover lost profits from the copper segment while expanding its gold assets [34].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" for 2024 [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see profit improvement in 2024, with the characteristic of "resource supremacy" becoming more pronounced. Supply from the mining sector remains rigid, while companies are cautious with capital expenditures amid increasing macroeconomic volatility and export policy restrictions from various countries, leading to enhanced supply constraints. The demand side shows a fragmented demand landscape under the backdrop of de-globalization, with re-industrialization in Europe and the US and economic growth in emerging markets being the main demand drivers. Revenue and net profit for the non-ferrous sector are projected to grow slightly, indicating a gradual improvement in industry prosperity. Resource-based companies, particularly in copper, gold, aluminum, tin, and tungsten, are expected to perform better, with a growing focus on resource scarcity and strategic importance [19][22][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3.47 trillion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.86%, and a net profit of CNY 138.41 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.77% [22][26]. 2. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that industrial metals experienced significant price fluctuations due to US trade tariffs in early April, but prices have since rebounded as negotiations exceeded market expectations. Small metals continue to perform well, with tungsten prices reaching new highs amid strengthened domestic export controls [20][21]. 3. Policy Changes - Domestic measures to tighten resource export controls have been noted, alongside international collaborations for mineral investment and development. Key actions include China's crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling, Australia's commitment to establishing strategic reserves for critical minerals, and various agreements between countries to enhance mining cooperation [20][21]. 4. Company Performance - Chinese listed copper companies have shown a significant increase in resource and reserve volumes, with a 27% year-on-year increase in resource volume and a 25% increase in reserves. Notable companies like Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources have made substantial acquisitions and exploration investments to secure resource safety [22][28][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 30.31 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year and down 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The coal business is on track to reach a production capacity target of 300 million tons [4] - The chemical business is experiencing a recovery in gross profit, with ongoing advancements in high-end chemical new materials [3] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company reported a coal production of 36.8 million tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year and a slight increase of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The self-produced coal sales volume was 30.49 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year and down 9.1% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The average selling price of coal (excluding trade) was 545 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14.4% quarter-on-quarter and 18.5% year-on-year [9] - The comprehensive cost of coal was 318 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year [9] - The company is progressing with several projects to increase coal production capacity, including the Shandong Wanfeng coal mine and the Xinjiang Wucaiwan open-pit mine [9] Chemical Business - The company produced 2.41 million tons of chemical products in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year and an increase of 8.3% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The sales volume of chemical products was 2.02 million tons, up 7.3% year-on-year and up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The comprehensive selling price of chemical products was 3,122 yuan per ton, down 6.2% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The gross profit margin for chemical products increased by 29.4% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 723 yuan per ton [9] Financial Projections - The company plans to produce 155-160 million tons of commercial coal and 8.6-9 million tons of chemical products in 2025 [10] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 9.9 billion, 11.9 billion, and 13.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.6X, 10.5X, and 9.1X [10] - The company aims to reduce the sales cost per ton of coal by 3% year-on-year and to lower the debt-to-asset ratio to below 60% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is progressing towards its target of "300 million tons" production capacity in coal business [4] - The chemical business is experiencing a recovery in gross profit, with ongoing advancements in high-end chemical new materials [3] - The company is actively expanding its multi-mineral development strategy, securing high-quality potassium chloride resources in Canada [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Coal Business - The company achieved a coal production of 36.8 million tons in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [9] - The average selling price of coal (excluding trade) was 545 RMB/ton, down 14.4% quarter-on-quarter and 18.5% year-on-year [9] - The company is set to increase its coal production capacity by 25 million tons per year through various projects, including the Shandong Wanfeng coal mine and Xinjiang Wucaiwan open-pit mine [9] Chemical Business - In Q1 2025, the company produced 2.41 million tons of chemical products, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.3% [9] - The comprehensive gross profit for chemical products was 723 RMB/ton, up 29.4% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The company is advancing projects in high-end chemical new materials, including a 60,000-ton melamine project in Xinjiang and a 3000-ton OMB gasification furnace in Lunan [9] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 30.31 billion RMB, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year and 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.71 billion RMB, down 27.9% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company aims to produce 155-160 million tons of coal and 8.6-9 million tons of chemical products in 2025, with a target to reduce coal sales costs by 3% year-on-year [10]