Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index, which has shown significant growth in recent months, indicating a positive trend in the non-bank financial sector within the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index increased by 2.9% to 3900.59 points, with a trading volume of 61.334 billion yuan on July 11 [1] - Over the past month, the index has risen by 7.55%, by 38.24% over the last three months, and by 30.42% year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The index comprises up to 50 listed companies that meet the non-bank financial theme criteria, reflecting the overall performance of this sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index include China Ping An (15.49%), Hong Kong Exchanges (14.08%), AIA Group (13.98%), China Life (8.51%), and others, indicating a concentration in major financial institutions [1] - The index is fully composed of financial sector companies, with a 100% allocation to this industry [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as removing companies that are delisted or adding new companies that meet the criteria [2] - The handling of mergers, acquisitions, and other corporate actions is governed by specific calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

Core Insights - On July 11, 2025, Zhongzhou Securities (01375), Guotai Junan International (01788), and Juxing Legend (06683) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 85.75 billion, 83.76 billion, and 51.63 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Guotai Junan International (01788), Zhongzhou Securities (01375), and Alibaba-W (09988) led the trading volume, with amounts of 31.31 billion, 31.15 billion, and 22.84 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai-Hong Kong) - Top active trading companies included: - Zhongzhou Securities (01375): 85.75 billion, net buy of +2.29 billion - Guotai Junan International (01788): 83.76 billion, net sell of -131.407 million - Juxing Legend (06683): 51.63 billion, net sell of -127.556 million - Alibaba-W (09988): 37.09 billion, net sell of -9.13 billion - Meituan-W (03690): 23.18 billion, net buy of +4.02 billion [2] Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen-Hong Kong) - Top active trading companies included: - Guotai Junan International (01788): 31.31 billion, net buy of +1.84 billion - Zhongzhou Securities (01375): 31.15 billion, net sell of -45.3737 million - Alibaba-W (09988): 22.84 billion, net buy of +7.30 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700): 18.63 billion, net sell of -66.2962 million - Juxing Legend (06683): 15.78 billion, net buy of +1.48114 million [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) announced the appointment of a new listing committee for the Main Board and GEM on July 4, 2025 [1] - Mr. Fang Yuan has been appointed as a member of the listing committee, marking him as the first member from the fund of funds industry [1] Group 2 - The "2025 Investment Institutions Soft Power Ranking" evaluation has been launched [3] - The "2025 Fund of Funds Annual Forum" is set to commence, gathering significant Chinese influence [3] - There is a growing trend among listed companies to engage in merger and acquisition funds this year [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 11, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 1.744 billion HKD from northbound trading, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net outflow of 2.197 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showing a net inflow of 3.941 billion HKD [1] - The most bought stocks by northbound investors included Meituan-W (03690), Ping An of China (02318), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) [1] - The most sold stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Alibaba-W (09988), and Tencent (00700) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of 715 million HKD, while Alibaba-W (09988) faced a net outflow of 183 million HKD [4] - Ping An of China (02318) saw a net inflow of 523 million HKD, benefiting from the Ministry of Finance's enhanced long-term assessments for state-owned commercial insurance companies [5] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) experienced a net inflow of 255 million HKD, supported by continued inflows from southbound funds and increased IPO activity [5] Group 3: Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw net inflows, with Zhongzhou Securities (01375) and Guotai Junan (02611) receiving net inflows of 183 million HKD and 2.06 million HKD, respectively [6] - The IPO market remains robust, with June seeing 150 IPO applications, accounting for 85% of the total for the first half of the year [6] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a significant net outflow of 738 million HKD, despite reporting over 300,000 cumulative deliveries of its electric vehicles [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has reduced its stake in Bilibili-W from 6.25% to 6.07% as of July 8 [1] Company Summary - The reduction in Bank of America's holding indicates a slight decrease in confidence or a strategic shift regarding Bilibili-W [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is expected to report strong earnings growth in Q2 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [1] - For Q2 2025, total revenue is anticipated to reach HKD 68.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27% and a flat quarter-on-quarter performance, while the main fee income is expected to be HKD 54.8 billion, up 30% year-on-year [1] - The trading activity in spot and commodity markets remains high, while derivatives trading shows a marginal decline; spot trading ADT is projected to be HKD 2,381 billion, a 96% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The IPO market is expected to remain active, with 27 IPOs completed in Q2 2025, raising HKD 884 billion, which is a significant increase of 932% year-on-year [1] - The investment income is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to HKD 13.9 billion, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and increased margin requirements in a high volatility market [1] - The long-term growth potential for HKEX is supported by the expected increase in daily trading volume, with a projected CAGR of 14% for the next decade, leading to a profit CAGR of 12% [2] Group 3 - The current valuation of HKEX is at 34x/32x P/E for 2025/2026, with a target price of HKD 465, indicating an 11% upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoints - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported a significant increase in market activity, with the average daily turnover (ADT) reaching HKD 2,376.77 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 95.46% [1][2][3] - The influx of southbound capital has contributed to high trading volumes, with a total net purchase of HKD 2,728.63 billion from April to June 2025, marking a 24.77% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The number of new IPOs in Q2 2025 rose to 27, up by 9 from the same period last year, with total IPO fundraising amounting to HKD 880.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 906.67% [1][3][5] Market Performance - As of June 2025, the market capitalization of the Hong Kong securities market stood at HKD 42.68 trillion, reflecting a 6.84% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 32.82% increase year-on-year [2] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 4.12% in Q2 2025, while the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a slight decline of 1.70% [2] IPO and Trading Activity - The surge in IPO activity was driven by major A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, including notable firms like CATL and Hengrui Medicine, which collectively raised HKD 737.72 billion, accounting for 83.79% of the total IPO fundraising in Q2 [3][5] - Derivatives and commodity contracts saw increased trading volumes due to heightened demand for risk hedging, with average daily trading volumes for futures and options reaching 1.54 million contracts in Q2, a 15.34% increase year-on-year [3][4] Investment and Future Outlook - Despite a decline in investment returns due to lower HIBOR rates, the overall yield remains high, with expectations of continued growth in Q2 performance [4][5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting a target price of HKD 480.08 per share based on a 40x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for future market activity and valuation recovery [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$450, indicating an upside potential of 10.2% from the current price of HK$408.20 [3][2]. Core Insights - The report revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Hong Kong Exchanges for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E down by -1.8%, -1.5%, and -1.2% respectively, based on updated volume data for June 2025 and July 2025 [1][2]. - The investment income estimates have also been updated to reflect the latest HIBOR forecasts, but the overall investment thesis remains unchanged [1]. - The target price is derived from a 3-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), implying a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37X for 2026E [2][3]. Financial Projections - Market capitalization is reported at HK$517.5 billion (approximately $65.9 billion) [3]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024E at HK$22,374 million, 2025E at HK$25,351.9 million, 2026E at HK$26,573 million, and 2027E at HK$28,025.7 million [3]. - EPS estimates are revised to HK$10.32 for 2025E, HK$11.49 for 2026E, and HK$12.04 for 2027E [3]. - The report indicates a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$9.26 for 2025E, with a projected dividend yield of 3.5% [3]. Risks and Methodology - The report identifies potential downside risks including increased competition from onshore capital markets, lower trading velocity in the cash market, fee pressure from reduced fees in China, and a sustained deflationary environment in China [2]. - The methodology for the target price is based on a 3-stage DDM approach, which is a standard valuation method used in the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting significant liquidity improvements and potential for valuation recovery, particularly in the small and mid-cap sectors [1][5][18]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a notable increase in liquidity, primarily due to the rising proportion of new economy companies and increased participation from southbound funds and retail investors, which now account for approximately 40% of the market [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and brokerage sectors will benefit from high market activity and robust earnings support, with IPO financing expected to reach HKD 107 billion in the first half of 2025, a sevenfold increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The potential return of Chinese concept stocks to the Hong Kong market could significantly enhance trading volume and total market capitalization, with estimates suggesting an increase of 17% to 20% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active in the second half of 2025, with an increase in the number of listings and trading volume, particularly in the fourth quarter [2][9]. - The market's appeal for new economy assets has been bolstered by reforms at the HKEX and geopolitical factors [2][18]. Liquidity Improvement - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to both asset and funding sides, with a notable increase in the proportion of new economy companies enhancing tradability [3][5]. - The report emphasizes that improved liquidity has led to a revaluation of companies, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap stocks [5][18]. Impact of New Economy Companies - New economy companies have significantly influenced the market, with their market capitalization increasing from 27% in 2015 to over 51% by the end of 2024, and their trading volume now exceeding 70% [16][17]. - These companies are expected to drive higher turnover rates and valuations compared to traditional sectors [17]. Future Growth Potential - The report outlines that the future growth of the Hong Kong stock market will be supported by the influx of new assets and the revaluation of existing companies, driven by domestic enterprises seeking overseas financing and foreign companies returning to avoid geopolitical risks [18][19]. - The HKEX is projected to see substantial profit growth, with estimates suggesting a 31% year-on-year increase in Q2 earnings, reaching HKD 15.4 billion for the year [4][22]. Brokerage Sector Outlook - Key Chinese brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan are expected to benefit significantly from the development of the Hong Kong market due to their strong overseas revenue and competitive edge [4][25]. - The overall outlook for the Chinese brokerage industry is positive, with expected profit growth of nearly 20% for the year [28].

智通财经7月10日电，香港交易所信息显示，贝莱德在药明生物的持股比例于07月04日从5.26%降至 4.91%。 ...