公司研究丨深度报告丨爱旭股份（600732.SH） [Table_Title] 再看爱旭股份——勇立 BC 光伏技术潮头， 破局行业周期先锋 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 26 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 光伏行业处于周期底部，新技术或将成为重要破局路径。爱旭股份 ABC 产品 2022 年即正式推 出，凭借着较高的功率优势以及稳步的市场拓展，2024 年进入收获期。2025Q1 公司业绩超预 期，组件销售量达 4.54GW，基本实现了满产，毛利率与经营活动现金流均实现了转正。展望 后续，公司 ABC 盈利优势有望逐步体现，资金压力亦有望进一步降低。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SFC：BQK482 任佳惠 SAC：S0490524070005 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 爱旭股份（600732.SH） cjzqdt ...

6月以来，碳酸锂期货、现货先后跌破6万元/吨关键价位后，资本市场对其价格触底的预期再次升温。 经过二季度持续下跌后，锂价中短期确实不排除反弹的可能性。 仅以能够反应市场预期的期货市场为例。6月以前，期货价格持续低于现货价格，显示出期货市场对远 期价格看跌的价格预期。 而在上周，期货价格已经转为"升水"状态。截至6月9日收盘，反应今年7月价格预期的主力合约结算价 为6.07万元/吨，高于上海有色、百川盈孚追踪的同期市场均价6.02万元/吨和6.03万元/吨。 同时，从各个期货合约组成的远期价格曲线来看，代表今年10月、11月价格预期的碳酸锂期货合约也普 遍超过6.1万元/吨以上，显示出市场看好下半年锂价。 一方面，期货主力合约结算价较现货转为"升水"，其中远期锂价又要高于近期锂价，另一方面相关个股 亦有小幅反弹，花旗也对天齐锂业开启90天的上行催化观察。 该机构认为，估计未来三个月应会削减更多供应，令锂市场由供过于求转为勉强达致平衡的状态。 上述对中短期市场的预判，确实具备一定产业逻辑作为支撑。首先，6万元/吨的价位十分敏感，仅就A 股上市公司而言，除了少数盐湖企业、"一体化"矿石提锂企业外，其他公司的锂盐业务 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yichin Photovoltaic, a well-established solar energy company, is undergoing significant changes due to the judicial auction of 200 million shares held by its controlling shareholder, Shenzhen Weizhi Energy Co., Ltd, which may lead to a change in control and impact the company's governance and operations [2][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - The judicial auction involves 200 million unrestricted shares, representing 100% of the shares held by the controlling shareholder and 16.90% of the total share capital of Yichin Photovoltaic [4][6]. - This auction follows a history of unsuccessful attempts to auction shares, with the previous auction in April resulting in no bidders and a starting price that had been halved from 268 million yuan to 114 million yuan [4][8]. - The reason for the auction stems from Weizhi Energy's debt defaults related to external guarantees, totaling approximately 5.803 billion yuan across seven lawsuits, leading to legal proceedings and the need to liquidate shares to settle debts [8][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yichin Photovoltaic reported a revenue of 3.478 billion yuan for 2024, a decline of 57.07% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.09 billion yuan, marking a staggering drop of 3192.48% [12][13]. - The company's first-quarter performance also showed a revenue drop of 39.5% year-on-year, with a net loss of 53.14 million yuan, indicating ongoing financial distress [14][15]. - The company's total assets decreased by 46.56% to approximately 6.15 billion yuan, while net assets attributable to shareholders plummeted by 82.78% to around 434.65 million yuan [13][12]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company has halted production at its Changzhou and Chuzhou facilities, which has exacerbated its operational challenges amid a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [12][16]. - The new chairman, Chen Jiangming, faces significant challenges as the company navigates through a difficult market environment and internal governance issues [10][12]. - Industry experts suggest that Yichin Photovoltaic must urgently address capacity resumption, debt restructuring, and stabilization of control to survive [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese credit market is experiencing a significant shift as credit risks and spreads have reached historical lows, driven by a combination of value imbalance, policy changes, and debt cycle dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Value Imbalance - The ratio of credit spreads to LPR spreads fell below 50% in the second half of 2024, leading to a disappearance of capital gain expectations [1]. - Institutional investors, such as banks and insurance companies, are shifting towards long-term interest rate bonds due to the imbalance in value, resulting in a sharp adjustment in the credit bond market [1]. - This institutional behavior has intensified the differentiation within the credit market, highlighting the severe inadequacy of overall credit spread value [1]. Group 2: Policy Dynamics - Since the initiation of the debt reduction policy in 2015, credit spreads have been on a long-term decline, but the policy focus has shifted towards urban investment transformation rather than debt reduction itself as of September 2024 [2]. - The next three years will see the completion of implicit debt replacement, leading to a reduction in policy support and a transition into a policy bottom phase for the credit market [2]. - The decrease in debt reduction funds and the advancement of urban investment transformation are gradually diminishing the factors that mitigate credit risk, necessitating attention to the survival pressures of tail-end entities [2]. Group 3: Debt Cycle Context - In the context of a global debt crisis, China has adjusted earlier due to pressures from real estate and local government debt, with credit risk pricing at historical lows [2]. - However, the pressures from external demand contraction and urban investment transformation are increasing actual tail-end risks [2]. - As the largest industrial nation globally, China’s reliance on external demand is facing challenges, while the push for urban investment transformation exacerbates credit risks for tail-end entities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 9.39 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 0.4% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 618 million yuan, up 2.61% [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit margin reached over 28% in Q1 2025, reflecting significant improvements in cost control and management capabilities [1]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sector - The excavator market in China saw a total sales volume of 201,131 units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, with domestic sales increasing by 11.7% [2]. - The domestic market shows strong growth momentum, particularly in sectors such as water conservancy projects and rural revitalization, which are driving demand for small excavators [2]. - The traditional peak season for the engineering machinery industry occurs from March to May, with revenue recognition expected in Q2 [2]. Screw Rod Business - The screw rod business is currently in a phase of temporary scale disadvantage due to ongoing investments in electric drive strategies and linear actuator projects [3]. - The company has invested 1.4 billion yuan in the linear actuator project, which is now entering the mass production phase [3]. - Early investment periods may exert pressure on the company's performance, as significant expenditures are required without immediate revenue generation [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.8 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 3.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 12% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34, 31, and 27 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4].

不过，公司还在盈利，净资产没有减少。 此时市净率并不会被动提高，反而会因为 净资产增加,市净率降低,市净率的百分 位还是比较低。 市净率=股价/净资产。 大多数时候，指数的净资产还是稳定的。 所以，在盈利大幅波动的时候，我们一般 可以参考市净率指标，作为过渡。 经济周期底部，容易遇到市盈率比市净率 的位置言。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 市盈率分母盈利下降，会带动市盈率数值 提高，也会让市盈率所处的百分位提高。 换句话说，过去两年，有的股票股价下跌 了，但是公司的盈利下降更多，导致市盈 率反而被动提高，市盈率所处的位置也提 高了。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...