Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The company achieved record high semi-annual performance with total revenue and other income reaching HKD 141 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 85 billion, up 39% year-on-year [7] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved investment sentiment supported by mainland policies, leading to increased participation from mainland investors in offshore markets, which boosted trading volumes in the Hong Kong stock market [7] - The report forecasts continued strong growth for the company, with expected shareholder profits of HKD 174.19 billion, HKD 192.62 billion, and HKD 207.88 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to growth rates of 33%, 11%, and 8% respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected at 20,516, 22,374, 27,785, 30,524, and 32,970 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.16%, 9.06%, 24.18%, 9.86%, and 8.01% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) for the same years is expected to be 11,862, 13,050, 17,419, 19,262, and 20,788, with growth rates of 17.70%, 10.02%, 33.48%, 10.58%, and 7.92% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 9.36, 10.29, 13.74, 15.19, and 16.40 for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 441.20, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 559.37 billion [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.16 for 2023, decreasing to 26.91 by 2027 [1][5] - The company has a book value per share of HKD 44.89 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 9.83 [6][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal and mining industry [10]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the metal market is currently at a cyclical bottom, with commodity prices experiencing fluctuations and equities leading the way. The first half of the year saw a "strong reality, weak expectations" scenario for copper and aluminum, while the second half is expected to see a decline in demand due to reduced wind and solar installations and export factors. However, supply elasticity is limited, and the extent of supply-demand deterioration is expected to be manageable. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased domestic stimulus policies, a "weak reality, stable expectations" state is anticipated, leading to continued fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices until demand enters a strong expectation or reality phase, projected by the end of this year or early next year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Commodity Market - In the commodity market, copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of strong reality and weak expectations in the first half of the year. The second half is likely to see a decline in demand, but supply constraints will limit the deterioration of the supply-demand balance. The report suggests that the market will stabilize as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and domestic stimulus measures are implemented [6][7]. Equity Market - The equity market is positioned to lead the recovery as the cyclical bottom is reached. The report highlights that the current equity valuations have already factored in a significant amount of pessimism, making it an opportune time for investment in copper and aluminum sectors. The influx of long-term capital is expected to enhance pricing power and support the recovery of copper and aluminum values [7][8]. Precious Metals - The report maintains a bullish outlook on precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts. It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The recommendation is to increase allocation to gold stocks, especially after gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce [5][6]. Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, noting that the value of these metals is being reassessed. The government is intensifying control over resources and smelting, which is expected to enhance the long-term strategic value of rare earths amid ongoing trade tensions. The report also highlights the potential for price increases in tungsten due to supply constraints and improving macroeconomic expectations [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Hong Kong Exchanges achieved record high annual and quarterly performance, driven by increased trading activity due to economic stimulus measures in mainland China [7] - The report projects continued growth in trading volumes and revenues, with significant increases in both the cash and derivatives markets [7] - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with expected shareholder profits for 2025 and 2026 at HKD 149.34 billion and HKD 156.73 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 14% and 5% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue reached HKD 22,374 million, a year-on-year increase of 9% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 13,050 million, up 10% year-on-year [7] - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of HKD 63.81 billion, a 31% increase year-on-year, and net profit of HKD 37.8 billion, up 46% year-on-year [7] Trading Volume and Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the cash market increased by 26% to HKD 1,318 billion [7] - The Northbound and Southbound trading under the Stock Connect saw average daily trading volumes of HKD 1,502 billion and HKD 482 billion, representing increases of 39% and 55% respectively [7] - The report notes that the derivatives market also experienced growth, with average daily contract volumes reaching a historical high of 1.55 million contracts, up 15% year-on-year [7] Revenue Breakdown - The cash segment generated revenue of HKD 94.22 billion, a 15.4% increase, accounting for 42% of total revenue [7] - The derivatives segment reported revenue of HKD 62.04 billion, a decrease of 5% due to increased interest rebates for certain contracts [7] - The commodities segment saw revenue of HKD 27.88 billion, up 27% year-on-year [7] Future Projections - The report anticipates continued strong performance, with projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 at HKD 25,538 million and HKD 27,058 million respectively [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are HKD 11.78 and HKD 12.36 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30.99x and 29.53x [1]