投资要点 来源：市场资讯 （来源：孙婷非银金融研究） | 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万港元) | 22,374 | 29.161 | 30.582 | 32.734 | 35,332 | | 同比(%) | 9.06% | 30.33% | 4.87% | 7.04% | 7.94% | | 归母净利润(百万港元) | 13.050 | 17.754 | 18.966 | 20.512 | 22.415 | | 同比(%) | 10.02% | 36.05% | 6.83% | 8.15% | 9.28% | | EPS-最新摊薄(港元/股) | 10.29 | 14.00 | 14.96 | 16.18 | 17.68 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 40.36 | 29.66 | 27.77 | 25.68 | 23.50 | 事件：香港交易所发布2025年业绩：1）实现收入及其他收益292亿港元，同比+30%，归母净利润178亿 港 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in performance for 2025, with total revenue and other income reaching HKD 29.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to HKD 17.75 billion, up 36% year-on-year [7] - The strong performance is attributed to increased trading and settlement fees due to record average daily trading (ADT) in the cash and derivatives markets, as well as robust growth in the Hong Kong IPO market, which led to a significant rise in listing fees [7] - The report forecasts continued revenue growth, with projected total revenues of HKD 29.63 billion in 2026, HKD 30.34 billion in 2027, and HKD 31.15 billion in 2028, reflecting growth rates of 1.6%, 2.4%, and 2.7% respectively [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company reported: - Total revenue of HKD 29,161 million, with a growth rate of 30.3% - Net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17,754 million, with a growth rate of 36.0% - Earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 14.00, with a projected PE ratio of 30 [2][8] - The breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Trading and transaction system fees: HKD 10.33 billion, up 44% - Settlement and clearing fees: HKD 7.04 billion, up 49% - Listing fees: HKD 1.79 billion, up 21% - Investment income: HKD 5.11 billion, up 4% [7][8] Market Performance - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's trading activity has improved significantly, which is expected to sustain the company's revenue growth [7] - The average daily trading volume in the cash market reached HKD 249.8 billion, a 90% increase year-on-year, with northbound trading ADT at HKD 212.4 billion, up 42%, and southbound trading ADT at HKD 121.1 billion, up 151% [7] - The IPO market saw 118 companies listed on the main board, raising HKD 286.8 billion, a 227% increase year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) with a target price of HKD 516.9 [2][9]. Core Insights - In 2025, Hong Kong Exchanges achieved a revenue of HKD 29.161 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.754 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year [2][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity, with the average daily turnover in the cash market reaching HKD 249.8 billion, a 90% increase year-on-year, driven by renewed investor interest in Chinese assets and international capital inflow [3][4]. - The number of new listings in 2025 reached 119, an increase of 48 from the previous year, with total fundraising amounting to HKD 286.9 billion, a 227% increase year-on-year, positioning Hong Kong as a leading market for IPOs globally [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of HKD 7.310 billion, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 4.335 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from the cash segment was HKD 14.704 billion, reflecting a 56.1% increase year-on-year, with trading fees and related services contributing significantly [3]. Market Activity - The report notes that the average daily turnover for the Stock Connect northbound and southbound trading increased by 42% and 151% respectively, indicating heightened market activity [3]. - The trading volume in the derivatives market also reached new highs, with an average daily contract volume of 1.6628 million contracts, a 7% increase from 2024 [9]. Revenue Structure - The revenue composition shows that trading and transaction system usage fees, along with settlement and custody fees, accounted for 64.7% of total revenue, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Investment income netted HKD 5.111 billion, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in the scale of margin and settlement fund investments [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in 2026, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 14.77, reflecting a strong market position and the potential for further capital inflow into Hong Kong [9][10]. - The company is expected to enhance its liquidity pool and market efficiency, focusing on developing a diversified asset ecosystem [9].

里昂发表研报指，港交所收入与利润连续第二年创新高，香港资本市场全面复苏带动强劲的营运杠杆效 应。上季港交所收入及净利润分别达72.6亿港元和43.5亿港元，两项数据均超出市场预期。港交所长期 维持高派息比率保持不变。该行将其目标价由374港元上调至500港元，重申"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

瑞银发表报告指，港交所去年第四季业绩优于预期，收入按年增长15%至73亿港元，较市场共识高约 9%，受惠于较强的净投资收益及存管及托管费。净投资收益按年上升2%、按季上升20%至12亿港元， 主要由于股本证券回报较佳及外汇收益。纯利按年增长15%至43亿港元，较市场共识高约15%，得益于 有效的成本控制。展望未来，港交所寻求在维持成本纪律的同时，为增长作出投资。计入第一季至今的 市场活动，以及瑞银对联邦基金利率的最新看法，该行微调2026年、2027年及2028年预测每股盈利，分 别上调3%、下调2%及下调3%至13.3港元、12.9港元及13.8港元。该行将其目标价由471港元下调至462 港元，相当未来12个月预测市盈率35倍，予"中性"评级。 来源：滚动播报 ...

瑞银发表报告指，港交所去年第四季业绩优于预期，收入按年增长15%至73亿港元，较市场共识高约 9%，受惠于较强的净投资收益及存管及托管费。净投资收益按年上升2%、按季上升20%至12亿港元， 主要由于股本证券回报较佳及外汇收益。纯利按年增长15%至43亿港元，较市场共识高约15%，得益于 有效的成本控制。展望未来，港交所寻求在维持成本纪律的同时，为增长作出投资。 计入第一季至今的市场活动，以及瑞银对联邦基金利率的最新看法，该行微调2026年、2027年及2028年 预测每股盈利，分别上调3%、下调2%及下调3%至13.3港元、12.9港元及13.8港元。该行将其目标价由 471港元下调至462港元，相当未来12个月预测市盈率35倍，予"中性"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported a net profit of HKD 4.3 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 12% quarter-on-quarter decline but a 15% year-on-year increase, exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast by 19% [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, the profit is projected at HKD 17.8 billion, a 36% year-on-year increase, which is 2% higher than market expectations [1] - The strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected revenue driven by trading and settlement fees, despite a seasonal decline in trading volume, with average daily turnover in cash equities down 21% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - Non-listed equity investment valuations contributed HKD 163 million in non-recurring income, and improved returns on company funds offset increased rebates to market participants, leading to a strong net investment income of HKD 1.2 billion, a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Even excluding the HKD 163 million gain, the pre-tax profit was HKD 5 billion, still showing a 16% year-on-year increase and exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast by 15% [1] - Cost control was in line with expectations, with total expenses rising by 7% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Despite weak trading volumes in Q4, the earnings performance remains robust, and strong net investment income is a positive surprise that may lead to upward revisions in earnings forecasts for FY 2026 [2] - Trading volumes have rebounded since the seasonal weakness in December 2025, with an average daily turnover of approximately HKD 260 billion year-to-date, even accounting for the weaker Lunar New Year period [2] - As HKEX enters 2026, there are over 400 active initial public offering applications, a significant increase from 297 in the previous quarter [2]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月27日｜高盛发表研报指，港交所2025年第四季盈利表现远高于该行及市场预期，主要是受到 投资收益向好及营运开支下降的带动。撇除投资收益，盈利仍较该行预测高出5%，反映成本控制得 宜。管理层在业绩发布会上重点阐述了中长期发展战略，除锐意捕捉国内机遇外，亦将交易所定位为抓 紧区域性增长机会的枢纽。对于2026年，管理层预期净投资收益将受香港银行同业拆息波动及外部组合 赎回影响，而营运开支的增长速度可能较2025财年加快。该行目前预测港交所2026年每股盈利增长约 4%，撇除投资收益的收入预计将按年增长12%，维持对其"买入"评级，目标价为546港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported a net profit of HKD 4.3 billion for Q4 2025, representing a quarterly decline of 12% but a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding JPMorgan's forecast by 19% [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, the profit is projected at HKD 17.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36%, which is 2% higher than market expectations [1] - The strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected revenue, particularly in trading and settlement fees, despite a seasonal decline in trading volume, with average daily turnover in cash equities down 21% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - The net investment income was robust, reaching HKD 1.2 billion, a quarterly increase of 20%, contributing to the profit exceeding expectations [1] - Even excluding the non-recurring income of HKD 163 million from private equity investments, the pre-tax profit was HKD 5 billion, still showing a year-on-year growth of 16% and surpassing JPMorgan's forecast by 15% [1] - The company maintained cost control, with total expenses rising by 7% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Despite weak trading volumes in Q4, the earnings performance remained strong, and the robust net investment income could lead to upward revisions in earnings forecasts for FY 2026 [2] - Trading volumes have rebounded since the seasonal weakness in December 2025, with an average daily turnover of approximately HKD 260 billion year-to-date [2] - As HKEX enters FY 2026, there are over 400 active initial public offering applications, a significant increase from 297 in the previous quarter [2]

摩根大通发表研究报告指出，香港交易所(00388.HK)公布2025年第四季净利润为43亿元，按季下跌 12%，按年增长15%，较摩通预测高出19%。2025财年利润为178亿元，按年增长36%，较市场预测高出 2%。该行认为，胜预期主要由于收入带动。交易费及结算费表现较预期为佳，按季分别下跌14%及 16%，尽管成交量呈季节性疲弱，现货股票日均成交额按季下跌21%。这些因素抵销了较预期弱的托管 费及市场数据费。对港交所而言，这是强劲的季度，尽管第四季成交量较弱，盈利仍表现坚挺。净投资 收益强劲是正面惊喜，并可能成为2026财年盈测获上调的来源。继2025年12月出现季节性疲弱后，成交 量已重拾强势，年初至今日均成交额平均约2,600亿港元，即使计入上周较弱的农历新年期间。此外， 港交所进入2026年时有超过400宗活跃的首次公开招股申请，较第三季的297宗显着增加。该行预期股价 强势，维持对港交所的增持评级，目标价为540港元。 来源：滚动播报 ...