现货市场边际回暖，IPO 环比正增长 主要数据 行业 交易所 股价 231.8 港元 目标价 286.7 港元 股票代码 388 已发行股本 12.68 亿股 市值 2938.9 亿港元 52 周高/低 315.9/212.2 港元 每股净现值 41.6 港元 主要股东 香港特别行政区政 府 5.9% | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|----------| | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | 截至12月31日财政年度 | 2022年实际 | 2023年实际 | 2024年预测 | 2025年预测 | 2026年预测 | 350 | | 总收入(百万港元) | 18,456 | 20,516 | 21,213 | 22,243 | 23,367 | 300 | | 变动(%) | -11.9% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 250 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [7] Core Views - The report indicates that the Hong Kong Exchanges has the basic conditions for recovery in capital market system construction and innovation, supported by a series of connectivity policies. It anticipates a gradual increase in market liquidity due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a revival in market activity and valuations [6][5] - Revenue and other income are projected to reach HKD 218.34 billion, HKD 226.85 billion, and HKD 242.67 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The attributable net profit is expected to be HKD 126.77 billion, HKD 130.63 billion, and HKD 138.60 billion for the same years, corresponding to PE ratios of 22.86, 22.19, and 20.91 [6][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue and other income of HKD 106.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.43%. The attributable net profit was HKD 61.25 billion, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2024 showed a strong performance with net profit increasing by 8.64% and 6.23% quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The breakdown of revenue sources shows that trading and trading system usage fees increased by 3.39%, while listing fees decreased by 7.64%. Other fees such as settlement and custody services also showed varied growth rates [5][6] Market Activity - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity in the commodity market, with the average daily trading volume of LME metal contracts rising by 29.1%, leading to a 42.7% increase in trading fees from the commodity segment [6][5] - The report notes a decline in IPO activity, with listing fees dropping by 3.8% and the number of new listings at 30, raising HKD 11.3% less than the previous year [5][6] Future Projections - The report projects that the company will see a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next three years, with specific figures outlined for each year [6][5] - The anticipated growth in revenue is supported by expected improvements in market liquidity and overall market activity, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions [6][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 303.4 HKD per share, reflecting a potential upside based on expected market recovery and valuation adjustments [3][13]. Core Insights - The company reported stable overall performance for the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 10.621 billion HKD, remaining flat compared to the same period last year. The core average daily turnover (ADT) was 1,104 billion HKD, down 3% year-on-year, indicating a stagnation in trading activity [6][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for LME contracts, which offset declines in spot market revenues. The investment income continued to provide a hedge against market fluctuations, with net returns from margin and settlement funds rising to 1.64% [6][13]. - The ETF and benchmark derivatives segments showed continued growth, with average daily trading volumes for ETPs reaching a new high of 144 billion HKD, up 4% year-on-year. The report also notes the introduction of new ETPs, including the first covered call options ETF and the first virtual asset spot ETF in Asia [6][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million HKD): - 2022: 18,456 - 2023: 20,516 - 2024E: 22,177 - 2025E: 23,682 - 2026E: 25,452 - Growth Rate (%): - 2023: 11.2% - 2024E: 8.1% - 2025E: 6.8% - 2026E: 7.5% [2][6]. - Net Profit (million HKD): - 2022: 10,078 - 2023: 11,862 - 2024E: 12,798 - 2025E: 13,669 - 2026E: 14,694 - EPS (HKD/share): - 2022: 7.96 - 2023: 9.37 - 2024E: 10.11 - 2025E: 10.80 - 2026E: 11.61 [2][6]. Business Segment Performance - The report indicates a decline in trading fees and listing revenues, with trading fees from stock products at 1.424 billion HKD, down 7% year-on-year. However, LME trading fees increased significantly, with a 30% rise in trading volumes for fee-based metal contracts [8][10]. - The derivatives segment saw a 16% decrease in trading fees, but the average daily contract volume for key products like the Hang Seng Tech Index futures increased by 15% [10][12]. - The investment income from the company's projects rose from 4.80% in 2023H1 to 5.33% in 2024H1, contributing positively to overall financial performance despite a decline in margin levels [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) with a target price of HKD 253.8 [1][2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the trading activity is showing marginal improvement, demonstrating resilience in performance despite a slight decline in net profit [1][2]. - The core drivers of the company's performance are linked to the trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market, with expectations of improved liquidity as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of HKD 10.621 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of HKD 6.125 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [1]. - In Q2 2024, the revenue was HKD 5.420 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2%, while net profit was HKD 3.155 billion, up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The revenue structure shows a decrease in the proportion of listing fees and net investment income, with trading and transaction system usage fees, settlement and clearing fees, and custodian services accounting for 56.1% of total revenue [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The average daily trading volume for stock products in H1 2024 was HKD 100.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.5% in Q2 2024 [2]. - The average daily trading volume for northbound trading reached RMB 130.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, while southbound trading averaged HKD 37.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [2]. - The listing fees for H1 2024 were HKD 431 million, down 3.8% year-on-year, with 29 new listings on the main board, a decrease of 4 from the previous year [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be HKD 9.76, HKD 10.59, and HKD 11.45 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 22, and 20 times [2][6]. - The report anticipates that the unique monopolistic position and diversified business model of the exchange will continue to drive growth in various business segments [2].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 52周内股价走势图 -26% -19% -13% -6% 0% 7% 香港交易所 恒生指数 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/8 本报告导读： 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.22 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 吴浩东(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | | | 021-38676647 | 010-83939780 | 021-38031024 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wuhaodon ...

上 市 公 司 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 非银金融 证 券 研 究 报 告 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -22% -2% 18% HSCEI 香港交易所 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 21 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 228.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6141.78 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 319.80/212.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,898.28 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,267.84 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0923 | 财务数据及盈利预测 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 18456 ...

非银行金融 2024 年 8 月 22 日 香港交易所(0388.HK) 现货市场边际回暖，24H1营收同比转增 推荐（维持） 事项： 股价：228.60 港元 主要数据 行业 非银行金融 公司网址 www.hkex.com.hk 大股东/持股 香港特别行政区政府./5.90% 实际控制人 总股本(百万股) 1267.84 流通 A 股(百万股) 流通 B/H 股(百万股) 总市值（亿港元） 2,898 流通 A 股市值(亿元) 每股净资产(港元) 41.57 资产负债率(%) 86.47 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】香港交易所（0388.HK）*季报点评*业绩 高基数下 承压 ，互联 互通功 能有望 更好 发挥*推荐 20240424 【平安证券】香港交易所（0388.HK）*年报点评*业绩 符合预期，投资收益亮眼*推荐20240216 【平安证券】香港交易所（0388.HK）*季报点评*投资 驱动业绩高增，高基数下交易延续承压*推荐20230427 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------| | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资 ...

非银行金融 2024 年 8 月 22 日 香港交易所(0388.HK) 现货市场边际回暖，24H1营收同比转增 推荐（维持） 事项： 股价：228.60 港元 主要数据 行业 非银行金融 公司网址 www.hkex.com.hk 大股东/持股 香港特别行政区政府./5.90% 实际控制人 总股本(百万股) 1267.84 流通 A 股(百万股) 流通 B/H 股(百万股) 总市值（亿港元） 2,898 流通 A 股市值(亿元) 每股净资产(港元) 41.57 资产负债率(%) 86.47 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】香港交易所（0388.HK）*季报点评*业绩 高基数下 承压 ，互联 互通功 能有望 更好 发挥*推荐 20240424 【平安证券】香港交易所（0388.HK）*年报点评*业绩 符合预期，投资收益亮眼*推荐20240216 【平安证券】香港交易所（0388.HK）*季报点评*投资 驱动业绩高增，高基数下交易延续承压*推荐20230427 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------| | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) [4] Core Views - HKEX's Q2 2024 performance was strong, driven by a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market [1][6] - Q2 2024 revenue and other income reached HKD 5.42 billion, up 8% YoY and 4% QoQ [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2024 was HKD 3.155 billion, up 9% YoY and 6% QoQ [6] - The company's investment income from funds increased by 37% YoY in Q2 2024, reaching HKD 366 million [6] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 7%, 8%, and 11% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue and other income were HKD 10.621 billion, up 0.4% YoY [2][6] - Core business revenue in H1 2024 was HKD 9.69 billion, down 0.4% YoY [2] - EBITDA for H1 2024 was HKD 7.661 billion, down 3% YoY [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2024 was HKD 6.125 billion, down 3% YoY [2] Segment Performance - Trading and transaction system usage fees in H1 2024 were HKD 3.29 billion, up 3% YoY, driven by increased derivatives trading [6] - Clearing and settlement fees in H1 2024 were HKD 2.125 billion, up 5% YoY, due to higher average daily turnover in Stock Connect [6] - Listing fees in H1 2024 were HKD 725 million, down 8% YoY [6] - Investment income net in H1 2024 was HKD 2.521 billion, down 6% YoY, mainly due to reduced investment income from margin and clearing funds [6] Market Performance Spot Market - H1 2024 average daily turnover (ADT) in the spot market was HKD 1.104 trillion, down 4% YoY but up 17% compared to H2 2023 [6] - Q2 2024 ADT in the spot market was HKD 1.216 trillion, up 18% YoY and 22% QoQ [6] - Northbound ADT in H1 2024 was RMB 1.302 trillion, up 19% YoY, while Southbound ADT was HKD 375 billion, up 11% YoY [6] ETP Market - H1 2024 ETPs ADT reached HKD 14.4 billion, up 4% YoY, marking a half-year high [6] IPO Market - H1 2024 saw 30 new listings on HKEX, raising HKD 13.4 billion, down 25% YoY [6] - Q2 2024 IPO market showed recovery with 18 new listings, up 50% QoQ, raising HKD 8.6 billion, up 79% QoQ [6] - As of June 2024, there were 107 IPO applications in the pipeline [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is forecasted at HKD 21.927 billion, HKD 23.768 billion, and HKD 26.393 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 11% [6][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at HKD 12.398 billion, HKD 12.98 billion, and HKD 14.324 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 5%, 5%, and 10% [6][7] - EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is estimated at HKD 9.78, HKD 10.24, and HKD 11.30, respectively [6][7] Valuation Metrics - P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.38x, 22.33x, and 20.23x, respectively [7] - P/B ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.51x, 3.75x, and 3.16x, respectively [7]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·其他金融(HS) 香港交易所（00388.HK） 2024 年中报点评：业绩符合预期，交投活跃 度持续改善 2024 年 08 月 21 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | | | | | | | 同比（%） | -11.90% | 11.16% | 7.27% | 7.91% | 5.58% | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | | | | | | | 同比（%） | -19.60% | 17.70% | 4.39% | 9.49% | 6.84% | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 7.95 | 9.36 | 9.77 | 10.69 | 11.43 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.26 | 24.86 ...