华西证券发布研报称，首次覆盖给予香港交易所(00388)"增持"评级，港交所业绩有望受益于中国内地 资金对港股配置需求的深化，国际资本对港股科技资产关注度的回升，以及中国内地行业龙头企业赴港 上市进程显著提速。 华西证券主要观点如下： 港交所通过旗下4家交易所(联交所、期交所、伦敦金属交易所LME、前海联合交易中心QME)和5家结算 公司，构建了覆盖交易、清算、结算、存管及数据服务的纵向一体化业务链条。2025年前三季度，现货 分部收入占比达50.8%，衍生品分部占比24.2%，商品分部占比10.4%，数据及连接分部占比7.6%。这种 垂直整合模式显著提升了运营效率与成本管控能力(2025年前三季度EBITDA利润率达79%)，同时通过 多元化的产品布局(涵盖股票、衍生品、商品、ETF、货币等)降低了单一市场波动对业绩的影响。完善 的生态体系使港交所能够持续受益于市场交投活跃度提升与产品创新红利，形成难以复制的竞争壁垒。 风险提示 市场活跃度不及预期;IPO节奏不及预期;政策风险 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 南向交易日均成交额占中国香港现货市场整体成交额的比重呈现持续上升趋势，从2019年的12% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue and other income reaching HKD 21.851 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching HKD 13.419 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year [1][15][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of HKD 7.775 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.73%, and a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 55.80% [1][15]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by increased trading activity, with trading fees and settlement fees contributing significantly to the revenue increase [16][55]. 2. Market Dynamics - The proportion of southbound trading has been steadily increasing, accounting for 53% of the overall trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market by Q3 2025, up from 12% in 2019 [2]. - The average daily trading amount (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock market increased by 126% year-on-year to HKD 256.4 billion, with the southbound trading ADT growing by 229% to HKD 125.9 billion [16]. 3. IPO Activity - The acceleration of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the revenue elasticity of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with over 170 A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong by November 2025 [3][64]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is projected to raise HKD 280 billion (approximately USD 36 billion) in 2025, marking a 137% increase from 2024 [65]. 4. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company operates a vertically integrated business model with multiple exchanges and clearing companies, enhancing operational efficiency and cost control [4][42]. - The diversified product offerings, including stocks, derivatives, commodities, and data services, create a robust ecosystem that mitigates the impact of market volatility on performance [7][50]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 24.81 billion, HKD 26.97 billion, and HKD 28.95 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 14.50 billion, HKD 15.95 billion, and HKD 17.55 billion [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with a recommendation to focus on strong insurance companies such as New China Life Insurance, China Ping An, China Life Insurance H, and China Taiping [2][17] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector (Shenwan) index increased by 2.27%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.99 percentage points, while the insurance sector saw a significant rise of 5.08% [1][9] - The insurance sector's growth is attributed to several factors, including a reduction in long-term stock holding risk factors, expected strong performance in dividend insurance products, and improved global liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [2][16] - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a valuation correction, with a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.36x, indicating potential for recovery in profitability and valuation [2][19] - The banking sector has underperformed, with a decline of 1.18%, and is currently undervalued with a PB ratio of 0.55x, suggesting room for future valuation improvement [3][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance index rose by 5.08%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.80 percentage points, driven by regulatory adjustments that lowered risk factors for long-term stock holdings [1][13] - The sector is expected to benefit from a favorable environment for dividend insurance products, with strong growth anticipated in the coming year [2][16] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like New China Life Insurance and China Ping An, which are positioned for growth [17] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index increased by 1.14%, with a current PB ratio of 1.36x, indicating a potential mismatch between profitability and valuation [2][19] - Regulatory changes are expected to enhance capital efficiency for leading brokerages, creating opportunities for investment in firms with strong fundamentals [2][18] - Recommended stocks include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and Orient Securities, particularly those involved in mergers or restructuring [19] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw a decline of 1.18%, with a PB ratio of 0.55x, indicating that banks are currently undervalued [3][20] - Concerns about asset quality, particularly related to real estate and local government debt, have affected market perceptions, but there is potential for recovery as regulatory support continues [23][24] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality city commercial banks in economically developed regions, such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank [20][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a potential for gradual realization of the sector's rebound logic [3]. Core Insights - The recent speech by the chairman of the China Securities Association has shifted market expectations positively for the brokerage sector, with a strong certainty of an upward adjustment in the long-term ROE central [3]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. The attractiveness of the equity market will benefit wealth management and asset management businesses of brokerages, with a specific recommendation for Dongfang Securities [3]. 2. Companies benefiting from an improved competitive landscape, with key recommendations including Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities [3]. 3. Valuation mismatches in Huatai Securities A+H and strong international business competitiveness in China Galaxy and CICC [3]. Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4,584.54, with a weekly change of +1.28%. The non-bank index closed at 1,975.96, with a weekly change of +2.27%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported changes of +1.14%, +5.08%, and +0.49%, respectively [6]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16,962.89 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 61.08% compared to the previous year [17]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of December 5, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.85%, with a weekly change of +1.14 basis points. The credit spread for corporate bonds was 0.54%, with a weekly change of +3.61 basis points [11]. - The insurance sector's original premium income for the first ten months of 2025 reached 5.48 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [28]. Individual Stock Highlights - In the insurance sector, notable A-share performances included China Pacific Insurance (+8.23%), Ping An (+5.09%), and China Life (+4.32%) [8]. - In the brokerage sector, the top performers included Zhongyin Securities (+7.89%) and Xingye Securities (+6.35%) [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is showing stability with a slight increase in stock price, while various stocks exhibit mixed performance, indicating potential investment opportunities and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - HKEX closed at HKD 406.4, up 0.54%, with a trading volume of HKD 1.699 billion, reflecting a stable trend [1]. - JD.com saw a minor increase of 0.52% to HKD 116.1, with technical indicators suggesting a "strong buy" signal despite an RSI of 41 [1]. - CanSino Biologics surged by 2.06% to HKD 38.56, with support at HKD 36.8 and potential resistance at HKD 41.6 [1]. - Meitu rose by 2.61% to HKD 7.48 but remains constrained by resistance at HKD 8.16 [1]. - Li Auto experienced a slight decline of 0.50% to HKD 69.4, needing to recover above HKD 73.5 to confirm a rebound [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - HKEX's short-term support is at HKD 399, with a critical resistance level at HKD 416; a successful breakout could target HKD 428 [2]. - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 56%, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [2]. - Various oscillators are showing signs of oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bottoming out, although MACD and Bollinger Bands remain weak [2]. Group 3: Product Review - Bear certificates demonstrated significant leverage, with Societe Generale's bear certificate (55993) and JPMorgan's bear certificate (55140) gaining 21% and 25% respectively during a period when HKEX stock fell by 0.93% [4]. - UBS put warrants (19854) also showed a 5% increase, highlighting the effectiveness of selecting appropriate leveraged products during clear market trends [4]. Group 4: Investment Options - For bullish sentiment on HKEX, consider JPMorgan's call warrant (26219) with a leverage of 2.6x and a strike price of HKD 388, noted for its low premium and implied volatility [6]. - Alternatively, Morgan Stanley's call warrant (27272) offers a leverage of 2.5x with relatively low implied volatility [6]. - For bearish outlooks, UBS's put warrant (19854) and Bank of China’s put warrant (19860) provide leverage of 12.5x and 11.6x respectively, with lower implied volatility [6].

Market Overview - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 110.541, down 0.41% from the previous close; Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 608.677, down 0.22% [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 610.000, down HKD 2.000 (-0.33%); ADR price HKD 608.677, down HKD 1.323 [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 111.000, down HKD 0.500 (-0.45%); ADR price HKD 110.541, down HKD 0.459 [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 155.000, up HKD 0.600 (0.39%); ADR price HKD 154.057, down HKD 0.943 [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 78.300, down HKD 0.700 (-0.89%); ADR price HKD 78.371, up HKD 0.071 [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 99.050, up HKD 0.950 (0.97%); ADR price HKD 98.981, down HKD 0.069 [3] - Ping An Insurance: Latest price HKD 60.450, up HKD 3.800 (6.71%); ADR price HKD 60.370, down HKD 0.080 [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 99.150, up HKD 0.750 (0.76%); ADR price HKD 98.086, down HKD 1.064 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Financial R (HKD) Index (483026) closed at 10,527.47 points, up 1.15%, with a trading volume of 51.949 billion HKD and a turnover rate of 0.43% on December 5 [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 65 constituent stocks rise, with Ruida Futures leading at a 10.01% increase, while 22 stocks declined, with Electric Power Investment and Financing leading at a 3.86% decrease [1] - The top ten constituent stocks by weight include HSBC Holdings (15.53%), China Construction Bank (11.08%), and AIA Group (8.37%) [1] Group 2: Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization of the top ten stocks includes HSBC Holdings at 1,733.079 billion HKD, China Construction Bank at 1,897.727 billion HKD, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 2,050.886 billion HKD [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 1.556 billion HKD, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 488 million HKD, and retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.068 billion HKD [3] - Notable net inflows include Dongfang Wealth at 532 million HKD and Guotai Junan Securities at 132 million HKD, while significant outflows were observed in Guangfa Securities and Changjiang Securities [3]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial R Index (483025) closed at 10,743.61 points, up 1.16%, with a trading volume of 47.173 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.43% [1] - Among the index constituents, 65 stocks rose, with Ruida Futures leading with a 10.01% increase, while 22 stocks fell, with Electric Power Investment and Financing leading with a 3.86% decline [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial R Index include major financial institutions such as HSBC Holdings, China Construction Bank, and AIA Group, with respective weights of 15.53%, 11.08%, and 8.37% [1] - The total market capitalization of the index constituents varies significantly, with China Construction Bank at 1,897.73 billion yuan and HSBC Holdings at 1,733.08 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 1.556 billion yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 1.068 billion yuan [3] - Notable net inflows were observed in stocks like Dongfang Wealth and Guotai Junan Securities, with net inflows of 532 million yuan and 132 million yuan respectively [3]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has been operational for 9 years, contributing significantly to the development of an open and inclusive capital market ecosystem, enhancing collaboration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and supporting the growth of new productive forces [1] Group 1: Mechanism Optimization and Trading Growth - The Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has continuously improved its mechanism design, enhancing cross-border trading convenience and market attractiveness [1] - As of December 4, 2023, the total transaction amount of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 131 trillion yuan, with the Shenzhen Stock Connect accounting for 103 trillion yuan and the Hong Kong Stock Connect for 28 trillion yuan [1] - Daily average transaction amounts since 2025 have shown significant growth, with Shenzhen Stock Connect averaging 111.1 billion yuan (73% annual growth) and Hong Kong Stock Connect averaging 46.7 billion HKD (94% annual growth) [1] Group 2: Support for New Economic Development - The Shenzhen market is characterized by a strong focus on technology innovation, with over 70% of companies being high-tech enterprises and nearly 50% being strategic emerging industries [2] - The Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has facilitated the accumulation of cross-border funds in new economic sectors, with net purchases of high-tech and strategic emerging industry stocks reaching 630.7 billion yuan and 478.8 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Since the reform and pilot registration system of the ChiNext board, the proportion of ChiNext stocks in the Shenzhen Stock Connect trading volume has increased to 38%, indicating a clear trend of international funds flowing into innovative sectors [2] Group 3: Financial Integration in the Greater Bay Area - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is leveraging its geographical advantage to deepen cooperation and innovate collaboration models, aiming to enhance the connectivity of capital markets in the Greater Bay Area [3] - Initiatives such as the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Advanced Manufacturing Index and the Green Low-Carbon Index are aimed at optimizing resource allocation in the capital market [3] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and other partners, is actively promoting the development of financial technology in the Greater Bay Area, contributing to the establishment of a global financial technology center [3]

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 48.0 trillion by the end of November 2025, a 41% increase from HKD 34.0 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading amount in November 2025 was HKD 230.7 billion, up 43% from HKD 161.5 billion in November 2024 [1] - For the first eleven months of 2025, the average daily trading amount was HKD 255.8 billion, a significant increase of 95% compared to HKD 130.9 billion in the same period last year [1] Derivative Products - The average daily trading amount for warrants in the first eleven months of 2025 was HKD 8.0 billion, a 54% increase from HKD 5.2 billion in the previous year [2] - The average daily trading amount for bull and bear certificates was HKD 10.6 billion, up 58% from HKD 6.7 billion year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading amount for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was HKD 34.1 billion, representing a 116% increase from HKD 15.8 billion in the same period last year [2] - The average daily trading amount for leveraged and inverse products was HKD 3.5 billion, a 21% increase from HKD 2.9 billion year-on-year [2] IPO and Fundraising - There were 93 new listings in the first eleven months of 2025, a 52% increase from 61 new listings in the same period last year [2] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) was HKD 259.4 billion, a remarkable increase of 228% compared to HKD 79.1 billion in the previous year [2] - The total fundraising amount for the first eleven months of 2025 reached HKD 575.0 billion, a 240% increase from HKD 169.0 billion year-on-year [3] Futures and Options Market - The average daily trading volume for futures and options in the first eleven months of 2025 was 1,692,878 contracts, an 8% increase from 1,571,189 contracts in the same period last year [4] - The average daily trading volume for stock options was 895,548 contracts, up 23% from 728,430 contracts year-on-year [5] - The average daily trading volume for Renminbi currency futures was 106,121 contracts, a 15% increase from 92,280 contracts in the previous year [5] - On November 25, 2025, the trading volume for Hang Seng Tech Index futures options reached a historical high of 80,803 contracts [5]