国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，股指进入击球区。机会总在恐慌中出现，中国股市将逐步企稳与 展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还很大，眼下是增持的良机。 美股AI波动与Google创出新高更似AI结构切换而非走势终结，中国也将在12—2月迎来政策、流动性、 基本面的共振期，市场调整后组合上逐步增加进攻性。看好AI应用，机器人，内需消费，新疆基建等 主题。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 机构看后市 中信证券认为，在增量资金越来越多地以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地 像美股一样出现"急跌慢涨"。对需要增配权益的投资者而言，当下风险的提前释放给了年末重新增配A 股/港股、布局2026年的契机。东方财富证券表示，在日历效应和机构行为影响下，近期增量资金由三 季度的共振转为分歧，净流入趋缓。步入12月，资金流入效应有望再度加强，春季行情或有望抢跑。 A股三大股指集体低开，沪指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.04%。盘面上，商业航天板块表现活跃，培育钻 石、存储芯片、光刻机等板块跌幅居前。 ...

A股三大股指开盘涨跌不一，沪指涨0.08%，创业板指跌0.11%。盘面上，有色金属板块表现活跃，军 工、商业航天、培育钻石等板块跌幅居前。 机构看后市 中信证券认为，在增量资金越来越多地以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地 像美股一样出现"急跌慢涨"。对需要增配权益的投资者而言，当下风险的提前释放给了年末重新增配A 股/港股、布局2026年的契机。东方财富证券表示，在日历效应和机构行为影响下，近期增量资金由三 季度的共振转为分歧，净流入趋缓。步入12月，资金流入效应有望再度加强，春季行情或有望抢跑。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。 美股AI波动与Google创出新高更似AI结构切换而非走势终结，中国也将在12—2月迎来政策、流动性、 基本面的共振期，市场调整后组合上逐步增加进攻性。看好AI应用，机器人，内需消费，新疆基建等 主题。 国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，股指进入击球区。机会总在恐慌中出现，中国股市将逐步企稳与 展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还很大，眼下是增持的良机。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan emphasizes a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite recent volatility, suggesting that the market is entering a favorable phase for investment as it approaches a critical window of policy and liquidity support from December to February [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market has experienced significant declines, with the ChiNext index down 12%, the STAR 50 index nearly 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech index down 22%, indicating that the market has already released much of its risk [1]. - The report highlights that the current pessimism among investors is driven by year-end profit protection, reduced positions, and external factors such as the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in U.S. markets [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Guotai Junan recommends increasing exposure to the Chinese market, particularly in technology, financial services, and consumer sectors, as the market is expected to stabilize and embark on a rally [1][3]. - Specific sectors to focus on include: - **Technology**: Growth in AI applications and infrastructure, with recommendations for internet, media, computing, and manufacturing sectors [3]. - **Financial Services**: Anticipated reforms in the capital market and early bank dividends, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks [3]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks, particularly in food, beverages, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [3]. Future Outlook - The Chinese capital market is positioned for significant growth, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in non-financial sectors by 2026, driven by improved cash flows and reduced debt [2]. - The report suggests that the historical "guaranteed return" mindset is shifting, leading to increased asset management demand and a potential influx of new capital into the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a critical zone after panic selling, presenting a buying opportunity as the period from December to February is expected to see a convergence of policies, liquidity, and fundamentals [1][2]. Market Analysis - The recent panic selling has significantly released market risks, with the Chinese stock market now in a favorable position for recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a 5% pullback, while the ChiNext Index has dropped 12%, the STAR Market 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index 22%, indicating that the adjustment period aligns with previous bull market corrections [2][3]. - The upcoming economic work conference is anticipated to set new expectations for the market, especially given the current economic slowdown and the importance of growth rates for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) signifies an acceleration in capital market reforms, with the rapid approval of 16 hard-tech ETFs reflecting regulatory commitment to stabilize the market [2][3]. Capital Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market is in a significant growth cycle, with substantial upward potential for stock indices. The factors that previously caused valuation discounts have dissipated, leading to a more stable outlook for the Chinese economy and capital markets [3]. - The demand for asset management is expected to surge, with projections indicating that the scale of new market entrants in 2026 may exceed current consensus estimates [3]. Investment Strategy - The focus for the upcoming cross-year market is on technology, financial services, and consumer sectors. Key recommendations include: 1. **Technology Growth**: Increased application of AI and a shortage of domestic computing infrastructure, with recommendations for investments in Hong Kong internet/media/computer sectors and manufacturing [4]. 2. **Financial Sector**: Anticipated reforms in capital markets are expected to boost risk appetite, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4]. 3. **Consumer Sector**: After three years of adjustment, consumer stocks are positioned for structural opportunities, particularly in food, beverage, agriculture, and tourism sectors [4]. Thematic Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and infrastructure investments in Xinjiang, particularly in clean energy and power grid sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The trading heat of hot themes has cooled down compared to October, with a differentiation in technology themes and a rebound in consumer blue chips. The focus is on new opportunities in domestic consumption and the new regional economic landscape, recommending sectors such as domestic consumption, Xinjiang infrastructure, AI applications, and robotics [1]. Group 1: Domestic Consumption - The State Council meeting emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential, fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats. New demands are leading to new supplies, with emerging scenes in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances [2]. - The "Su Super" effect has significantly driven consumption in Jiangsu, exceeding 38 billion yuan. The Northeast Super initiative aims to create a nationally influential football event brand [2]. - The consumption scale of ice and snow sports is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth. Recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion and holiday policy optimization, such as tourism, duty-free, and hotels [2]. Group 2: Xinjiang Infrastructure - Xinjiang's development focuses on western openness, strategic positioning, energy resources, agricultural products, and national security. By 2025, Xinjiang plans to implement 500 key projects with a total investment of 3.47 trillion yuan, increasing the number of projects and annual investment compared to 2024 [3]. - Key projects include comprehensive transportation, efficient water resource utilization, and energy infrastructure, with a total investment of 1.21 trillion yuan in 186 projects. Additionally, 257 projects in oil and gas and clean coal utilization have a total investment of 2.22 trillion yuan [3]. - The aim is to establish a golden passage between Asia and Europe and a bridgehead for western openness, recommending investments in oil and gas extraction, power grids, and transportation infrastructure [3]. Group 3: AI Applications - Alibaba launched the "Qwen App," a personal AI assistant based on its Qwen model. The State Council issued guidelines to accelerate the cultivation and large-scale application of AI scenarios [4]. - The goal is to achieve over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030. The focus is on model iteration, strong capital expenditure, and domestic production [4]. - Recommendations include investments in internet and financial applications, as well as data center power equipment and domestic computing under increased global computing investment [4]. Group 4: Robotics - Yushu Technology completed its IPO counseling report, and Xiaopeng Motors launched a new humanoid robot, IRON, featuring advanced design elements [5]. - Robotics applications are accelerating in industrial scenarios involving repetitive, heavy, and dangerous tasks, as well as personalized home and companionship settings [5]. - The industry is leveraging manufacturing supply chain advantages to build a technological and scalable foundation, with recommendations for investments in key components like dexterous hands, sensors, and lightweight materials [5].

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has weakened in the first three quarters, with a notable decline in the proportion of special bonds used for broad infrastructure, dropping to approximately 31% from 45% in the previous year [5] - The valuation of central state-owned construction enterprises remains low, highlighting the investment value of high-dividend stocks in this sector, with dividend yields for several companies exceeding 4.6% [5] - The Xinjiang region is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure investments, with significant projects underway that will positively impact local leading engineering firms and suppliers [5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - As of October 19, 2025, special bonds issued reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, but the investment growth rates for narrow and broad infrastructure were only 2.00% and 5.42% respectively from January to August 2025 [5] - In August 2025, narrow and broad infrastructure investments saw year-on-year declines of 5.85% and 6.42%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [5] Valuation and Dividend Insights - As of October 17, 2025, several central state-owned construction companies exhibited attractive dividend yields, such as China State Construction at 4.86% and China Railway Construction at 6.06% in the Hong Kong market [5] - The price-to-earnings ratios for these companies are significantly low, with China Railway Construction at 3.61 times, indicating a historical valuation level that presents a potential investment opportunity [5] Regional Investment Opportunities - The Xinjiang region has seen substantial fixed asset investment growth due to the Western Development Policy, with over 2 trillion yuan allocated in transfer payments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - Major transportation infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, such as the New Tibet Railway and Duku Highway, are expected to drive demand for local construction firms and suppliers [5]

Group 1 - The new infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, including the 2000 km New Tibet Railway, 100 billion Duku Highway, and 800 billion coal chemical projects, are expected to create significant investment opportunities for leading companies in the sector [1] - The market for innovative drugs for vitiligo is projected to reach 10 billion, with only 54% of the 22.83 million patients currently receiving treatment, indicating a substantial growth potential for leading pharmaceutical companies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [12] Core Insights - Xinjiang has significant development potential despite its poor infrastructure, with ongoing investments in major infrastructure projects such as transportation, water conservancy, and energy [2][5] - The region's GDP is projected to grow by 6.1% in 2024, with fixed asset investment expected to increase by around 10% by 2025 [5][27] - Major projects in Xinjiang, including coal chemical projects and significant transportation infrastructure, are expected to drive economic growth and create investment opportunities [7][10] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Xinjiang's GDP for 2024 is estimated at 20,534.08 billion yuan, with a per capita GDP of 78,660 yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.1% and 5.4% respectively [5][21] - The region's infrastructure is lagging, with road and rail density significantly below national averages, which constrains economic development [24][26] Infrastructure Investment - The Xinjiang government plans to utilize various funding sources, including central budget investments and local government bonds, to support infrastructure development [27] - By 2025, Xinjiang aims for a GDP growth of around 6% and a fixed asset investment increase of approximately 10% [27] Major Projects - Significant projects include the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, with investments expected to accelerate, and major transportation projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the New Tibet Railway [7][10] - The total investment for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is estimated at 8 billion USD, with construction expected to start by the end of 2024 [7] Strategic Positioning - Xinjiang is positioned as a key hub in the Belt and Road Initiative, with its foreign trade growth rate leading the nation [9] - The region's strategic location and resource advantages are expected to enhance its role in national economic development [44][45] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as China Chemical and China Railway Construction are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the increasing infrastructure investments in Xinjiang [10] - The report suggests monitoring local engineering firms for order releases as infrastructure projects ramp up [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and infrastructure sector, particularly those benefiting from the Xinjiang transportation infrastructure projects [9][26]. Core Viewpoints - The establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company, with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, is expected to catalyze significant investment opportunities in the Xinjiang transportation infrastructure sector [1][12]. - The Xinjiang region is anticipated to receive increased policy support and major project investments, particularly in transportation infrastructure, due to its strategic importance to national energy security and ethnic unity [17][12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for substantial returns from leading construction companies such as China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction, as well as local firms like Xinjiang Communications Construction and Beixin Road and Bridge [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for major construction companies involved in Xinjiang's infrastructure projects, highlighting their strong market positions and expected growth [9][26]. Key Beneficiaries - Major construction central enterprises such as China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction are identified as primary beneficiaries of the Xinjiang infrastructure projects [18][24]. - Local companies like Xinjiang Communications Construction and Beixin Road and Bridge are also highlighted for their significant roles in regional infrastructure development [21][22]. Project Details - The Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, approximately 2010 kilometers long, is projected to require an investment of 96 billion RMB, with construction expected to commence in 2025 [1][12]. - The report outlines the timeline for project milestones, including geological surveys and construction start dates, indicating a structured approach to project execution [13][17]. Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for recommended companies include projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with China Railway and China Railway Construction showing favorable valuations [27][28]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts for these companies, indicating strong potential for growth and returns on investment [9][26].