证券研究报告 特变电工 (600089 CH) 多业务板块景气共振开启价值重估 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价 33.31 元，对应 26 年 PE 22X。我们认为公司 26 年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有 望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤 炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，我们预计公司 26-27 年具备较强的向上盈利弹性。 输变电：出海有望加速突破，国内主网周期向上 公司是国内民营主变龙头，是国内少数具备"高压电缆+附件+施工"一体 化集成服务能力的企业。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC 进 一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司海外订单 高速增长，23 年、24 年、25H1 公司国际市场产品分别实现签约超 7 亿美 元、超 12 亿美元、11.20 亿美元，25H1 同比增长 65.9%；截至 25H1，公 司输变电国际成套项目在手合同金额超 50 亿美元。25 年 8 月斩获沙特约 164 亿元框架标。伴随海外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格 有望进一步推升，公司变压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The modern coal chemical industry in China is focusing on high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development to enhance competitiveness and ensure energy security amid global supply chain challenges and carbon reduction goals [3][12]. Group 1: Achievements in the Modern Coal Chemical Industry - The industry has made significant progress over the past 20 years, achieving a total production of approximately 31.73 million tons of key products like coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas in 2024, a 19.9% increase from 2020 [5]. - The industry has established a comprehensive technological system that is internationally leading, with a domestic equipment localization rate exceeding 95% [6]. - Resource utilization efficiency has improved significantly, with reductions in energy and water consumption across various projects, such as a 7.5% reduction in energy consumption for coal-to-oil projects [6]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Industry - The approval process for coal chemical projects has become stricter, potentially delaying or adjusting planned projects, which may cause short-term pain but is seen as necessary for long-term high-quality development [9]. - The industry faces increasing competition due to external political and economic factors, leading to market risks as product homogeneity rises [9]. - There is a lack of high-end and green technology supply, with current products primarily being bulk chemicals, limiting profitability and the ability to extend the industrial chain [10]. Group 3: Strategic Directions for Development - The industry should enhance its competitive strength against petrochemical products by developing differentiated strategies and conducting market analyses [12]. - Emphasis on technological innovation is crucial, focusing on high-value chemical products and integrating AI and big data to create advanced smart factories [12]. - Promoting energy integration and low-carbon development is essential, utilizing new technologies to optimize energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions [13].

勘查创新突破之路资源评价与深度利用的学术探索 ——访中国工程院院士、煤炭资源与地质勘查专家王双明 1月11日，煤炭无人化开采数智技术全国重点实验室第一届学术委员会、战略指导委员会第二次会议暨教育部协同创 新中心2025年年会在北京召开，聚焦煤炭行业数智化转型与协同创新发展。中国工程院院士、煤炭资源与地质勘查 专家王双明，围绕煤炭行业战略定位、协同创新路径、技术攻关方向及未来发展等核心内容，深入阐释了煤炭工业 在能源安全与"双碳"目标下的使命与担当。 人开采便无从谈起。目前，实验室已围绕这一方向开展系列攻关，力求突破地质数据采集、建模、动态更新等关键 技术瓶颈。 谈及"煤炭资源开发枯竭"这一认知，王双明院士首先予以纠正："中国的煤炭资源总量是比较丰富的，我们现在面临 的不是'找煤'，而是要在现有煤炭资源中，筛选出能够实现绿色低碳安全开采利用的资源量，这需要经过系统的地 质勘查评价和综合评估才能最终确定。"这一观点直指行业认知误区，也为煤炭行业的转型发展奠定了认知基础。 在能源安全与"双碳"目标双重约束下，煤炭的战略角色被重新定义。王双明院士强调："中国'富煤、相对缺油少 气'的资源禀赋没有改变，现阶段新能源的发 ...

（记者 张明双） 华阳股份（600348.SH）12月19日在投资者互动平台表示，公司始终重视煤炭资源的科学开发与综合利 用，并密切关注行业前沿技术发展。对于资源开发利用，公司坚持在合规前提下，结合矿井地质条件、 技术经济性及环保要求统筹规划。目前公司暂未涉及中深部煤制气技术应用，后续将结合资源禀赋、技 术成熟度及政策导向，审慎评估相关业务的可行性。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：您好！我司一些资源枯竭的矿井在地层深处是否还有 煤碳资源？现深部煤制气技术已攻克，能安全高效产出煤制气，煤制气较煤碳相比碳排放强度低，污染 小，更受欢迎，同这样的公司合作，既资源合理利用，又培育了新的利润增长点，能否推动？ ...

Group 1 - The Xinjiang Changji Coal Trading Conference successfully promoted deep integration of the coal industry chain, resulting in 52 coal purchase and sales projects signed, with a total contract volume exceeding 125 million tons [1] - The Changji region, as a significant energy base in China, showcased its resource endowment and industrial potential, with the predicted coal resource reserves in the Zhuzhong coalfield reaching 390 billion tons, characterized by low ash, low sulfur, low phosphorus, high volatility, high activity, and high calorific value [1][2] - The China Railway Urumqi Bureau Group Company plans to enhance coal transportation efficiency, aiming to transport 142.5 million tons of coal by 2025, while providing approximately 3.68 billion yuan in benefits to local coal enterprises through price reductions [1] Group 2 - The Xinjiang region is experiencing a positive trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the coal industry, with the Zhuzhong Development Zone establishing six major advantageous industrial systems [2] - Significant projects in the Zhuzhong Development Zone include coal-to-gas projects and major coal-to-olefin projects, with an expected industrial output value of 135.98 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - Technological innovation is supporting the green transformation of the coal industry, with projects like coal gas to ethanol and all-vanadium flow energy storage being implemented, promoting a shift from coal as a single fuel to a dual role as both raw material and fuel [2] Group 3 - The successful hosting of the conference highlights Xinjiang's crucial role in the national energy strategy, as the region transitions from a traditional coal production base to a modern energy comprehensive utilization base, contributing to the optimization of China's energy structure and low-carbon development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the coal-to-gas industry is entering a mature development phase due to improved market pricing mechanisms, fair access for coal-to-gas enterprises, and abundant coal resources in Xinjiang, which provide a solid raw material guarantee [1] - There are currently 12 coal-to-gas projects planned in China, with a total capacity of 440 billion cubic meters per year, indicating significant industry growth potential [1] - The cost structure of coal-to-gas production shows that coal and depreciation costs account for 38% and 35% of total costs, respectively, with coal prices and investment costs being critical factors for competitiveness [1] Group 2 - The West-to-East Gas Transmission project has a total natural gas transportation capacity of 770 billion cubic meters per year, with a remaining capacity of 193 billion cubic meters per year, indicating a 25% surplus capacity [2] - The completion of the West-to-East Gas Transmission Phase IV will further enhance capacity, supporting the outflow of coal-to-gas products from Xinjiang and facilitating regional price arbitrage [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices opening high but closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.4% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion, a decrease of 180.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] AI Industry Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts that by 2026, AI investment opportunities will focus on two main areas: 1) Investment opportunities around computing power, emphasizing leading companies, new technology upgrades, and local industrial clusters [2] - The report highlights the rapid growth in revenue from companies like OpenAI, indicating a shift towards commercializing AI applications across various industries [2] Coal-to-Gas Industry - Tianfeng Securities notes that the coal-to-gas sector is entering a new phase of industrial catalysis due to improved market pricing mechanisms and fair access for coal-to-gas companies [3] - There are currently 12 projects planned in China with a total capacity of 44 billion cubic meters per year, supported by abundant coal resources in Xinjiang and advancements in coal chemical technology [3] Automotive Industry Trends - Guosen Securities states that the Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from a growth phase to a mature phase, with annual sales growth slowing down and structural changes occurring due to the rise of new energy vehicles [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand development and globalization as key strategies for automotive companies to navigate the competitive landscape, alongside the significant market potential for smart driving applications [4]

Core Viewpoint - The coal-to-gas industry is experiencing a maturation phase due to improved market pricing mechanisms, equitable access for coal-to-gas enterprises, and advancements in coal chemical technology, alongside reduced investment costs from larger and higher-pressure equipment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market pricing mechanism for coal-to-gas has been refined, facilitating a more competitive environment [1] - The national pipeline network's "X+1+X" model allows for fair access for coal-to-gas companies [1] Group 2: Resource Availability - Xinjiang's abundant coal resources provide a reliable supply of raw materials for coal-to-gas production [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - There have been breakthroughs in the high-end domestic coal chemical technology, enhancing production efficiency [1] - The trend towards larger and higher-pressure equipment is contributing to lower investment costs [1] Group 4: Industry Development - The coal-to-gas sector is at a catalytic development stage, with 12 projects currently planned, totaling 440 billion cubic meters per year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal-to-gas industry in China is experiencing a resurgence due to improved market pricing mechanisms, fair access to pipelines, abundant coal resources in Xinjiang, advancements in coal chemical technology, and reduced investment costs, with 12 projects planned to produce a total of 44 billion cubic meters per year [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development - The coal-to-gas industry is entering a "second spring" as technical and policy barriers are being addressed, moving from 70 planned projects before 2017 to only 4 operational due to various constraints [2] - Current conditions are more favorable for coal-to-gas development, with 12 projects totaling 440 billion cubic meters per year in planning [1][2] Group 2: Cost Competitiveness - Coal and depreciation costs account for 38% and 35% of coal-to-gas costs respectively, with low coal prices in Xinjiang providing a competitive edge [3] - A coal-to-gas project with an annual output of 2 billion cubic meters could achieve a net profit of nearly 1.6 billion yuan under current pricing conditions [3] Group 3: Infrastructure and Capacity - The existing pipeline capacity for natural gas transport from Xinjiang has a surplus of 25%, which supports the export of coal-to-gas products and facilitates regional price arbitrage [3]

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia's energy industry investment increased by 19.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters, accounting for 33.5% of the region's fixed asset investment, becoming a significant driver of investment growth [1] Group 1: Traditional Energy - The production of coal remained stable, with a total raw coal output of 940 million tons from large-scale industrial enterprises [1] - Crude oil production reached 2.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while natural gas production was 23.94 billion cubic meters, representing 12.3% of the national total [1] - Coal-to-gas production increased by 26%, reaching 3.4 billion cubic meters [1] - Key coal power projects, such as the Mengneng Jinshan Phase III (2×1 million kW) and Huineng Changtan Phase II (2×660,000 kW), are progressing rapidly, with total installed power capacity reaching 28.226 million kW by the end of September [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy - Inner Mongolia is accelerating the construction of renewable energy projects, focusing on the progress of ongoing projects and ensuring timely completion of investment and grid connection targets [1] - The installed capacity of renewable energy increased by 12.84 million kW in the first three quarters, with a total renewable energy installed capacity of 147.59 million kW by the end of September, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.9% [1] - Renewable energy now accounts for 52.3% of the total installed power capacity, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]