FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 敏實集團有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年12月16日 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 00425 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | | | | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) 2025年11月30日 | | 1,166,904,799 | | 11,130,000 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Global light vehicle sales in October reached approximately 7.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. However, overseas sales totaled about 4.77 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and a month-on-month decline of 1.5% [2]. - North American sales were 1.56 million units, down 5.0% year-on-year but up 1.1% month-on-month. European sales were approximately 1.48 million units, up 2.9% year-on-year but down 7.5% month-on-month. In contrast, Chinese sales reached 3.13 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month [2]. - The report anticipates that overseas light vehicle sales will reach 55.88 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and 56.14 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales data indicates a mixed performance across regions, with North America and Europe facing declines while China shows growth [2][5]. - The report highlights the impact of exchange rates and freight costs on the automotive industry, noting a downward trend in the CCFI (China Container Freight Index) [24]. 2. Market Competition - The competitive landscape is analyzed, showing the market shares of major automotive groups, including Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD, with a focus on their performance in the global market [28][29]. - The report also discusses the dynamics of the global new energy vehicle market, emphasizing the growth of companies like BYD and Tesla [33][34]. 3. Export Situation of Automotive and Parts Companies - The report provides insights into the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, highlighting the monthly growth rates of narrow passenger vehicle exports [39][40]. - It lists companies with significant overseas revenue, indicating their reliance on international markets [42].

小摩预期新关税对敏实影响有限，因其墨西哥业务营运超过15年，已实现本地化物料采购以符合美墨加 协议规则，管理层亦预期本地化生产下成本压力有限，可缓解关税上调的风险。该行又指，潜在的美国 对墨西哥进口加征5%关税影响同样较小，因敏实所有墨西哥生产均符合美墨加协议，指出集团在北 美、欧盟及亚洲15个国家拥有超过50个生产基地，并拥有超过16年的海外工厂管理经验，实际上是处于 去全球化的有利位置。 摩根大通发布研报称，敏实集团(00425)昨日(11日)股价下挫约6%，相信是由于市场对墨西哥参议院批 准对汽车零部件、钢铁等多类中国进口商品加征新关税的担忧，税率最高达50%，新规将于2026年生 效。该行给予"增持"评级，目标价70港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the recent decline of approximately 6% in the stock price of Minth Group (00425) is attributed to market concerns over new tariffs on various Chinese imports, including automotive parts and steel, approved by the Mexican Senate, with rates reaching up to 50% and set to take effect in 2026 [1] Group 1: Impact of New Tariffs - The new tariffs are expected to have a limited impact on Minth Group due to over 15 years of operational experience in Mexico and established local material procurement to comply with USMCA regulations [1] - Management anticipates that localized production will mitigate cost pressures, thereby alleviating risks associated with tariff increases [1] Group 2: Compliance and Production Capabilities - The potential 5% tariff increase on imports from Mexico by the US is also expected to have a minimal effect, as all of Minth's production in Mexico adheres to USMCA standards [1] - Minth Group operates over 50 production bases across North America, the EU, and 15 countries in Asia, leveraging more than 16 years of experience in managing overseas factories, positioning the company favorably in a de-globalization context [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US economy is expected to maintain moderate growth next year, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and AI investments, while remaining strategically bullish on US stocks but cautious of structural differentiation and short-term risks in Q1 [1] - For the Hong Kong stock market outlook, it is anticipated that the market will shift from valuation-driven to profit growth-driven, with valuation expansion likely to weaken but liquidity remaining supportive [1] - The combination of profit-driven growth and liquidity support is expected to emerge by 2026, with new supply creating new demand as a new driving force for the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2 - The technology sector in the US stock market is expected to become more rational, with AI remaining a key driver, and the regulatory environment being favorable for mergers and acquisitions [1] - The AI advancements are projected to continue driving revenue and valuation recovery in the Chinese internet sector's cloud business [1] - The domestic pharmaceutical and innovative drug sectors are likely to benefit from a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions by large multinational pharmaceutical companies, as well as an increase in BD transactions [1] Group 3 - The automotive industry is expected to see flat or slightly declining sales next year, with current market sentiment being sufficiently pessimistic, presenting an opportunity to gradually accumulate stocks of companies with high earnings growth certainty [2] - The consumption sector's recovery remains uneven, suggesting a strategy of "anchoring on earnings while leveraging growth" for investment [2] - The education sector is viewed positively for its resilient growth and expansion opportunities [2] Group 4 - Recommended stocks for Q1 next year include: Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), Netflix (NFLX.US), Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba (BABA.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692), CanSino Biologics-B (02162), Innovent Biologics (01801), and others [2]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain moderate growth in the coming year, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and AI investments [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to shift from valuation-driven to profit growth-driven, with a projected earnings growth rate of 6% to 10% for the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The valuation expansion in the Hong Kong market may weaken, but liquidity will remain supportive, leading to a new supply creating new demand [1] - The dual liquidity easing in both China and the U.S. is expected to increase foreign and southbound capital supply, translating into new demand for Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The U.S. tech sector is expected to become more rational, with AI continuing to be a key driver, while the regulatory environment will favor mergers and acquisitions [2] - The domestic pharmaceutical and innovative drug sectors are likely to benefit from a resurgence in M&A activity from large multinational companies [2] - The automotive sector is projected to see flat or slightly declining sales, presenting opportunities to gradually accumulate stocks of companies with high earnings growth certainty [2] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Top stock picks for the first quarter of next year include Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), Netflix (NFLX.US), Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba (BABA.US), and others [3]

Core Insights - Jiaxing has attracted 41 new projects with over $100 million in investment and utilized foreign capital of $2.497 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase [1] - The city is transforming into an "innovation source" for foreign enterprises, shifting from traditional manufacturing to research and development [5] Group 1: Investment Environment - Jiaxing's business environment has significantly improved project execution efficiency, leading to the establishment of the first overseas production base by South Korea's Samyang Foods, expected to produce 800 to 1,000 million servings of turkey noodles annually by the end of 2026 [1] - The local government's efficient approval processes and professional teams have been highlighted as key factors attracting foreign investment, with a rapid response time exemplified by the "golden 24-hour principle" [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Ecosystem - Jiaxing's industrial ecosystem is characterized by strong collaboration among companies, as seen with the partnership between Meikeweqi and upstream supplier Satellite Chemical, enhancing supply chain efficiency [4] - The city has seen a 52.3% year-on-year increase in foreign investment, reaching $1.135 billion in additional capital from foreign enterprises in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Group 3: R&D and Innovation - Jiaxing is evolving into a central hub for foreign R&D, with companies like Minhui Automotive leveraging AI to reduce development cycles by approximately 30% and save hundreds of thousands of RMB in costs [5] - The city has established over 1,000 foreign-funded enterprises since 1985, with a total foreign investment of nearly $52.5 billion, including 247 projects from Fortune Global 500 companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector continues to rebound, entering an upward channel, with the core company index rising by 5.54%, outperforming the broader market [12][11] - Multiple factors contributed to the unexpected strength of the rebound, including prior adjustments in the sector, advancements in Tesla's Optimus robot, and anticipated supportive policies from the U.S. government [4][12] - The year 2026 is projected to be a milestone for humanoid robot mass production, with significant catalysts expected [4][40] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Sector Performance - The humanoid robot sector index and leading stocks have shown a continued rebound, with the core company index increasing by 5.54% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [12][11] - The top five performers included Hengli Hydraulic (+11.53%), Siling Co. (+10.07%), and Wuzhou Xinchun (+9.24%) [12][14] Optimus Robot Development - Tesla's Optimus robot is progressing towards mass production, with recent demonstrations showcasing its running capabilities, achieving speeds of 2.5-3 m/s [5][16] - The U.S. government is expected to introduce supportive policies for the robot industry, which may accelerate development and enhance market confidence [31][33] - The domestic industrialization process is also speeding up, with leading companies preparing for capital market entry [34][38] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in the supply chain, including components such as head assemblies, bearings, and structural parts [27][30] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Lens Technology, Minth Group, and Wuzhou Xinchun, among others [6][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological upgrades and supply chain integration to support mass production [27][30]

Summary of Minth Investor Day Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Minth - **Industry**: Auto Parts Manufacturing - **Established**: 1992 - **Key Products**: Design, manufacturing, and sales of auto trims, decorative parts, body structural parts, and other auto parts - **Production Facilities**: Over 40 in China and overseas Key Business Targets - **Sales Target**: RMB72 billion for auto-parts business by 2030, representing a 22% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 [2] - Breakdown of sales targets: - RMB30 billion for battery housing (31% CAGR) - RMB20 billion for plastic parts (27% CAGR) - RMB11.5 billion for aluminum parts (17% CAGR) - RMB10.5 billion for trims and metal parts (13% CAGR) - **Emerging Sectors Revenue Target**: RMB10 billion by 2030, including: - RMB5 billion for humanoid robot components - RMB4 billion for liquid cooling products - RMB1 billion for eVTOL components [3] Growth Drivers - **Global Trends**: Accelerating vehicle electrification and intelligence [2] - **Market Expansion**: Growth in Europe for plastic business and sealing systems [2] - **Revenue Distribution**: By 2030, expected revenue distribution is 30% from China, 30% from Europe, and 30% from North America [2] Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth**: Targeting 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 and 15% ROE by 2030 [2] - **Revised EPS Estimates**: Increased by 0.4% for 2025, 0.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [4] - **New Price Objective**: Raised to HKD50 from HKD43, maintaining a Buy rating [4] Revenue and Profitability Insights - **2025 Revenue Estimates**: - Total: RMB26.3 billion - Battery housing: RMB9.7 billion - Legacy business: RMB20.4 billion [20] - **Profit Margins**: Expected improvement in gross margin and operating expenses discipline [16] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Aluminum Parts Market**: Anticipated market share gain due to competitor exits [17] - **Plastic Parts Growth**: Expected 10% revenue growth in 2025, driven by contributions from Chinese and European OEMs [17] Technology and Innovation - **Emerging Sectors**: Highlighted technology advantages in liquid cooling and humanoid robot components [19] - **Partnerships**: Established partnerships with top AI server ODMs in Taiwan for liquid cooling products [19] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Increasing trade tariffs, volatile margins in overseas plants, lower margins in battery housing, and foreign exchange volatility [24] Conclusion - **Investment Rationale**: Positive outlook on Minth's revenue growth from both traditional and new businesses, with a focus on vehicle electrification and intelligence [14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International indicates a weakening in wholesale numbers for some domestic car manufacturers in November, with a forecasted year-on-year decline of 8.7% in retail sales of passenger vehicles due to high base effects and reduced subsidies impacting the industry in Q4 [1] Automotive Sector Summary - The overall retail sales of passenger vehicles in November are expected to remain flat month-on-month but show a significant year-on-year decline [1] - China Merchants Securities International suggests that market sentiment is currently very pessimistic, indicating a potential opportunity for forward-looking investments [1] Stock Recommendations - The firm recommends Geely Automobile as the top pick due to high earnings certainty and undervaluation, with a target price of HKD 32 [1] - BYD and Xpeng Motors are also recommended with target prices of HKD 130 and HKD 115 respectively [1] - In the automotive parts sector, Minth Group and Fuyao Glass are recommended with target prices of HKD 42 and HKD 86 respectively [1] - All five stocks are rated as "Buy" [1] Long-term Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook on the "AI + Automotive" and "AI + Robotics" sectors, highlighting potential catalysts in Q1 of the following year, including the IPO of Yushutech and the release of Tesla's third-generation robot [1] - Recommended stocks in the AI sector include Youbixuan, Horizon Robotics, and Hesai Technology, with target prices of HKD 172, HKD 13.8, and USD 28 respectively, all rated as "Buy" [1] - The report also includes a recommendation for Extreme Wisdom [1]