Stock Data and Market Performance - The stock closed at HKD 21.10 on April 9, with a 52-week price range of HKD 13.12-21.40 [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 47.9 billion, with 2.27 billion shares outstanding [1] - Over the past 3 months, the stock has shown an absolute return of 40.11% and a relative return of 36.17% compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Company Overview and Competitive Advantages - The company is a leading OTA platform in China, formed through the merger of Tongcheng Network and eLong in 2018 [3] - It has strong partnerships with Tencent and Ctrip, with 80% of MAU coming from WeChat mini-programs [4] - The company has a dominant position in lower-tier cities, with 86.9% of registered users from non-first-tier cities as of 2023 [3] Financial Performance and Growth - Revenue in 2023 reached RMB 11.896 billion, an 80.7% YoY increase, surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 60.9% [2] - Net profit turned positive at RMB 1.554 billion in 2023, compared to a loss of RMB 146 million in 2022 [5] - The company expects revenue to grow to RMB 23.931 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 19.1% from 2023-2026 [5] Business Segments and Expansion - The platform offers over 420,000 flight routes, 2.5 million hotels, 430,000 bus routes, and 10,000 attraction tickets [4] - Domestic hotel room nights sold in Q4 2023 exceeded 70% of 2019 levels, while international room nights fully recovered [4] - The company completed acquisitions of Tongcheng Tourism Group and Yalong Bay Tropical Paradise in 2023 to expand its tourism business [4] Valuation and Investment Rating - The stock is trading at 19.25x 2023 P/E and 1.69x P/B, with an EV/EBITDA of 14.88x [9] - Analysts forecast 2024-2026 adjusted net profits of RMB 2.73 billion, RMB 3.065 billion, and RMB 3.655 billion respectively [6] - The target price range is HKD 23.38-29.88, representing 18-23x 2024 P/E, with an "Outperform" rating [6] Industry Trends and Growth Drivers - The company benefits from China's tourism market recovery, with strong demand for domestic and outbound travel [6] - It has launched a "Global Destination Plan" to capture growth in cross-border travel [6] - The company's focus on lower-tier cities and WeChat ecosystem integration provides a competitive edge [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an increased target price of HKD 24 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that during the Qingming Festival, the average spending per tourist exceeded 2019 levels, with a total of 539.5 billion RMB spent, marking a 12.7% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1]. - For the upcoming May Day holiday, there is a strong booking trend, with domestic flight prices rising above those during the Qingming Festival, indicating continued confidence in the tourism sector [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the tourism industry, particularly through the appeal of trendy cities attracting younger consumers [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenue of 37.2 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a 44% year-on-year growth, with accommodation revenue expected to reach 9.4 billion RMB [1][2]. - Transportation revenue is anticipated to be 17.0 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at 2.546 billion RMB, with an adjusted target PE of 20.0x for FY24E [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its strong operational performance, strategic acquisitions, and growth potential in the travel industry [1][2] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2023, with revenue reaching 11.896 billion RMB, up 80.7% YoY, and adjusted net profit of 2.199 billion RMB, up 240.3% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 73.5%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, while the adjusted net margin increased to 18.5%, up 8.8 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's transaction volume surged to 241.5 billion RMB, up 96.8% YoY, driven by strong performance in accommodation booking and transportation ticketing services [1] - The company's strategic focus on lower-tier cities and WeChat traffic has been successful, with 86.9% of registered users coming from non-first-tier cities [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company's revenue reached 3.145 billion RMB, up 109.6% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 483 million RMB, up 1188.3% YoY [1] - The company's annual paying users increased to 235 million, up 25.2% YoY, while average monthly paying users reached 41 million, up 39.1% YoY [1] - The company's EPS is projected to grow from 0.69 RMB in 2023 to 1.49 RMB in 2026, with P/E ratios expected to decline from 19x in 2024 to 12x in 2026 [2][5] Strategic Initiatives - The company deepened its strategic cooperation with Tencent, with 80% of average monthly active users coming from WeChat mini-programs [1] - The company expanded its offline customer acquisition channels, which contributed to the growth of monthly paying users in Q4 2023 [1] - The company enhanced its membership system, particularly the Black Whale membership program, which saw a significant increase in cumulative members in Q4 2023 [1] - The company completed the acquisition of Beijing Tongcheng Travel Industry Group in Q4 2023, strengthening its position in the travel industry supply chain [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.062 billion RMB, 2.723 billion RMB, and 3.369 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 17.028 billion RMB in 2024 to 23.728 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.6% [2][5] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 8.78% in 2023 to 13.03% in 2026, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [7] Market Position - The company's focus on lower-tier cities and rural tourism projects has been a key driver of user growth, with 72.7% of new paying users on WeChat coming from non-first-tier cities [1] - The company's integration of Tongcheng Travel and the launch of offline store franchising plans have expanded its customer base and market reach [1] - The company's strategic acquisitions and partnerships are expected to further enhance its competitive advantage and market influence in the travel industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic and outbound tourism, with a positive cycle of improving profit margins [2] - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been raised to 2.715 billion and 3.291 billion RMB respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 4.002 billion RMB [2] - The target market capitalization is set at 53.3 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 25.90 HKD, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023Q4 reached 3.145 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 109.63% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 716 million RMB, up 193% year-on-year [2] - The adjusted net profit for 2023Q4 was 483 million RMB, compared to 37 million RMB in 2022Q4, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.3% [2] - The company experienced a significant reduction in sales expense ratio from 37.9% in 2022Q4 to 35.8% in 2023Q4, and a decrease in management expense ratio from 6% in 2023Q3 to 3.6% in 2023Q4 [2] Business Outlook - The company has integrated travel agency operations, which are expected to contribute to the tourism business segment, potentially accounting for 15% of total revenue [2] - The outbound tourism business is projected to grow faster than domestic tourism in 2024, with the company actively expanding its international supply chain [2] - The company is currently in a phase of improving market conditions, with increased online travel engagement in lower-tier cities and enhanced profit margins [2]

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 同 程 旅 行 （00780.HK） GMV 和付费用户数创新高，首次派息回报股东 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（本文除特殊说明外均采用人民币为货币单位） ⚫ 同程旅行公布 4Q23 财报。公司 23Q4 GMV 同比增长 110.6%至 535 亿元，收入同比增长 109.6%至 31.4 亿元。公司 23Q4 non-IFRS 净利 润同比增长 1188.3%至 4.8 亿元，non-IFRS 净利率同比增长 2.5pct 至 15.3%。公司 23Q4 的 MPU 同比增长 54.3%至 3750 万人。 ⚫ 公司 2023 年 non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 240.3%至 22.0 亿元，non- IFRS 净利率同比增长 9.8pct 至 18.5%，基本恢复至 2019 年同期水 平。公司首次派息，2023 年每股派 0.15 港元，总共派息 3.4 亿港元。 ⚫ 分业务来看：（1）23Q4 公司的交通票务收入同比增长 94.9%至 14.7 亿元。其中，机票票量较 19Q4 增长 16%，远超行业整体表现。（2） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 22, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 18.78 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance exceeded expectations, with Q4 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%, and a 61% increase compared to the same period in 2019, surpassing market expectations by 11% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 480 million, exceeding market expectations by 1.9%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.3% [2]. - The company announced a dividend of HKD 0.15 per share [2]. Revenue and Growth - Q4 2023 saw strong travel demand, with transaction volume reaching RMB 53.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 111%, and a 30% increase compared to 2019 [2]. - The average monthly paying users grew by 54% year-on-year to 37.5 million, solidifying the company's market position in lower-tier cities [2]. - Accommodation booking revenue was RMB 880 million, up 73% year-on-year, driven by diversified accommodation scenarios and cross-selling opportunities in transportation services [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue reached RMB 1.47 billion, a 95% year-on-year increase, attributed to increased ticket volume and value-added services [2]. - Other revenue surged by 236% year-on-year to RMB 790 million, mainly from tourism services, advertising, and hotel management services [2]. Market Outlook - The report highlights strong travel demand during the Spring Festival, with national travel volume increasing by 34% year-on-year and total domestic travel expenditure rising by 47% [2]. - The company is optimistic about the 2024 tourism industry, noting trends in experiential consumption among younger consumers [2]. - The company completed a 100% acquisition of Tongcheng Travel, which is expected to contribute an additional RMB 2.7 billion in revenue in 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a 45% year-on-year revenue growth for 2024, reaching RMB 17.2 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to grow by 16% to RMB 2.5 billion [3]. - The adjusted profit margin is projected to be 14.8% for 2024 [3].

Table_Title Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 03 月 21 日 公司动态分析 同程旅行（0780.HK） 证券研究报告 4 季度业绩超预期，关注度假业务增量及用户价值释放 xxxx 在线旅行 同程旅行4季度收入/经调整净利润超市场预期11%/2%，4季度国内酒店间夜量/机 投资评级： xx 买入 票预订量较4Q19增70%/16%，APU创新高至2.35亿人。收购同程旅业加码度假业 xx 务，我们看好公司业绩稳健增长前景、度假业务增量贡献、用户价值释放，给予18 倍2024年市盈率，上调目标价至23.3港元，维持“买入”评级。 目标价格： 23.3 港元 报告摘要 现价 (2024-03-20)： 19.48港元 4 季度业绩超预期：总收入同比/较 4Q19 增 110%/61%至 31.4 亿元，超出市场预期 11%，主要因并表同程旅业（自2023年12月起）使得其他收入超预期。交通票务/ 住宿预订收入同比增95%/73%，交通票务仍贡献最大增量。经调整净利润4.8亿元， 总市值(百万港元) 44,045 略高于市场预期2%，净利润率15.3%，较3季度（18.8%）环比回落，主要因 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月21日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 增持 国内继续挖潜下沉市场流量变现，海外逐步加码布局 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年公司收入较2019年增长61%，经调净利润增长42%，首次宣布派息。 社会服务·旅游及景区 2023年公司收入119.0亿元，同比增长80.7%，较2019年增长60.9%；经调 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 整净利润22.0亿元，同比增长240.0%，较2019年增长42.4%，经调整净利 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 率18.5%。其中，Q4公司收入31.4亿元，同比增长109.6%，较2019年增长 S0980511040003 S0980513100003 60.7%；经调整净利润4.8亿元，同比增长1188.3%，较2019年增长45.8%， 证券分析师：张鲁 联系人：杨玉莹 经调整净利率15.3%。整体而言，2023年公司收入增速领先行业表现，彰显 010-88005377 0755-81982942 zha ...

2024 年 03 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 需求高涨，收入利润及付费用户规模均再创新高 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 ——同程旅行（ ） 年财报点评 0780.HK 2023 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 罗婉琦 S0350122040042 luowq@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年3月19日公司公告2023Q4及全年财报，①2023全年整体实现 营业收入119亿元（YoY+80.7%），归母净利润15.7亿元（2022年为 -1.6亿元）实现扭亏为盈，Non-GAAP净利润22亿元（YoY+240.3%）， 2023全年公司实现总交易额同比增长96.8%至2,415亿元。②2023Q4 公司实现收入31.4亿元（yoy+109.6%），超彭博一致预期9.7%；实现 经调整净利润4.8 亿元，超彭博一致预期1.9%，实现经调整净利润率 15.3%（yoy+12.8pcts）；实现总交 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.8% from the current price of HKD 18.78 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, driven by the consolidation of travel business, with revenue reaching RMB 3.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110% [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was RMB 480 million, with a net profit margin of 15%, slightly above expectations [1][2]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 20-25% for the full year, with a profit increase of 23% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 11.896 billion, a year-on-year growth of 80.7% [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 2.199 billion, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is forecasted at RMB 0.98, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 236.7% [3][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue is expected to be driven by the traditional OTA business, with a projected 22% year-on-year growth in Q1 2024 [2][3]. - The travel segment, including transportation and accommodation, is anticipated to see significant growth, with accommodation nights increasing by 70% compared to 2019 levels [2][3]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 17.458 billion, with a growth rate of 46.8% [3][8]. Valuation and Market Position - The report has adjusted revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 upwards by 28% and 7% respectively, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in domestic travel demand and has a competitive advantage in lower-tier markets [2][3]. - The integration of the travel business is expected to enhance resource synergy and provide long-term growth opportunities [2][3].