Group 1 - The 41st Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference concluded on November 6, featuring over 2,250 global companies discussing future energy trends and sustainable development [1] - More than 330 Chinese enterprises and institutions participated, showcasing innovations in green low-carbon technologies, intelligent transformation, and international cooperation [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) highlighted innovations in ultra-deep well drilling, artificial intelligence, and carbon capture utilization and storage, emphasizing the integration of oil, gas, heat, electricity, and hydrogen for a sustainable energy future [1] Group 2 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) presented deep-water equipment, new energy technologies, and digital achievements, demonstrating its capabilities in oil and gas development and energy transition [1] - China Petroleum Engineering Corporation made its debut as an independent exhibitor, showcasing advancements in oil and gas engineering, green low-carbon initiatives, and digital transformation [1] - China State Shipbuilding Corporation's Jiangnan Shipyard displayed high-end vessels, including a 175,000 cubic meter LNG carrier and a 99,000 cubic meter ethane-ethylene carrier, highlighting its innovation in shipbuilding [1] Group 3 - China Classification Society focused on green low-carbon and intelligent shipping, showcasing technological achievements in marine engineering, energy development, and ship efficiency [2] - Local exhibition groups, such as 36 enterprises from Jiangsu Jianhu, demonstrated innovations in high-end, intelligent, and green transformation within the oil equipment sector [2] - A representative from a Saudi energy company noted the impressive performance of Chinese enterprises at the exhibition, indicating their leadership in advancing the energy industry's high-end and intelligent development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai recommends a "buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), projecting revenues and net profits for 2025-2027, with a target price of HKD 25.98 based on an 8.5x PE valuation for 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 33.947 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.853 billion, up 6.11% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of CNY 11.350 billion, a decrease of 5.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1.023 billion, down 4.51% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in oil prices, typhoon-related production cuts, and rising natural gas prices were the main factors affecting performance [1]. Production and Discoveries - The company achieved a record high net production of oil and gas for the first three quarters, totaling 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [1]. - In the first three quarters, the average Brent crude oil price was USD 69.91 per barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year, while the realized gas price was USD 7.86 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company made five new discoveries and successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, expanding its reserves significantly [2]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the year 2025-2027, subject to shareholder approval [2]. - The company has healthy operating cash flow under the current oil price environment, with a current dividend yield of 6.7%, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [2].

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has issued a "buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), forecasting revenues of RMB 413.2 billion, RMB 423.8 billion, and RMB 442.9 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of RMB 132.7 billion, RMB 134.3 billion, and RMB 140.9 billion respectively [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 33.947 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.853 billion, up 6.11% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.350 billion in the third quarter, a decrease of 5.75% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.023 billion, down 4.51% year-on-year [1] - The decline in oil prices, typhoon-related production cuts, and rising natural gas prices were the main factors affecting performance [1] Production and Discoveries - The company achieved a record high net production of oil and gas in the first three quarters, reaching 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [1] - In the first three quarters, the average price of Brent crude oil was USD 69.91 per barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year, while the realized gas price was USD 7.86 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [1] - The company made five new discoveries and successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, expanding its reserves significantly [2] Dividend and Cash Flow - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027, subject to shareholder approval [2] - The company has healthy operating cash flow under the current oil price environment, with a current dividend yield of 6.7%, highlighting its high dividend attribute [2]

Core Insights - ADNOC showcased its presence at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) and established multiple collaborations with Chinese companies, including strategic framework agreements with Zhenhua Oil and CNOOC [1] Group 1: Partnerships and Collaborations - ADNOC signed several cooperation agreements with Chinese enterprises during the expo, focusing on both upstream and downstream sectors [1] - The ADNOC delegation included senior leaders from various business units, as well as representatives from Masdar and TA'ZIZ, highlighting the company's commitment to renewable energy and industrial development [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - ADNOC plans to establish an office in Beijing by April 2025, indicating a long-term commitment to the Chinese market [1] - TA'ZIZ awarded a $1.99 billion EPC contract to China National Chemical Engineering Group's 7th Construction Company (CC7) for the construction of one of the world's three integrated PVC production bases [1]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.42%), Gree Power (69.43%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (69.25%) [1] - The largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days were seen in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (+5.118 billion), CNOOC (+2.935 billion), and Xiaomi Group-W (+2.839 billion) [1] - The largest decreases in holdings were recorded for SMIC (-2.428 billion), Tencent Holdings (-1.831 billion), and Alibaba-W (-1.394 billion) [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.913 billion shares, representing 71.42% [1] - Gree Power (01330) has a holding of 281 million shares, representing 69.43% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding of 898 million shares, representing 69.25% [1] - Other notable companies include China Shenhua (67.69%) and Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection (66.73%) [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) saw an increase of 5.118 billion in holdings, with a change of 19,240.45 million shares [1] - CNOOC (00883) increased by 2.935 billion, with a change of 14,057.10 million shares [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) increased by 2.839 billion, with a change of 6,536.38 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include Meituan-W (+2.148 billion) and China Mobile (+1.663 billion) [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - SMIC (00981) experienced a decrease of 2.428 billion, with a change of -31.55 million shares [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a decrease of 1.831 billion, with a change of -2.84 million shares [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) decreased by 1.394 billion, with a change of -844.60 million shares [2] - Other companies with notable decreases include ZTE Corporation (-628 million) and Longi Green Energy (-538 million) [2]

Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows of southbound funds are China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), Xiaomi Group, and Southern Hang Seng Technology, with net inflows of 1.045 billion, 0.998 billion, and 0.766 billion respectively [1] - The top three companies with net outflows of southbound funds are Alibaba Group, Sunny Optical Technology, and Luoyang Molybdenum, with net outflows of -0.873 billion, -0.339 billion, and -0.254 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Qingdao Bank, Dasheng Holdings, and Shougang Resources lead the market with ratios of 86.77%, 70.86%, and 63.91% respectively [1] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios are Pacific Basin Shipping, Yimaitong, and Sichuan Chengyu Expressway, with ratios of -54.77%, -46.94%, and -37.64% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - The top ten companies by net inflow include CNOOC (1.045 billion), Xiaomi Group (0.998 billion), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (0.766 billion) [2] - Other notable companies in the net inflow list are China Mobile (0.752 billion), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (0.531 billion), and China Petroleum (0.431 billion) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - The top ten companies by net outflow include Alibaba Group (-0.873 billion), Sunny Optical Technology (-0.339 billion), and Luoyang Molybdenum (-0.254 billion) [2] - Other significant companies with net outflows are SMIC (-0.240 billion), Jiangxi Copper (-0.220 billion), and Bilibili (-0.200 billion) [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - The top three companies by net inflow ratio are Qingdao Bank (86.77%), Dasheng Holdings (70.86%), and Shougang Resources (63.91%) [2][3] - Other companies with high net inflow ratios include Wanwuyun (61.22%) and Prudential (60.12%) [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - The top three companies by net outflow ratio are Pacific Basin Shipping (-54.77%), Yimaitong (-46.94%), and Sichuan Chengyu Expressway (-37.64%) [3] - Other companies with significant net outflow ratios include Yancoal Australia (-34.65%) and Lens Technology (-33.16%) [3]

Core Insights - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a significant platform for listed companies to showcase their products and technologies, reflecting the vibrancy and attractiveness of the Chinese market [1][8] - Central enterprises play a crucial role in procurement, facilitating deeper connections within global supply chains and showcasing new products and technologies from multinational companies [2][3] Group 1: Central Enterprises and Procurement - A total of 14 central enterprises participated in the "Central Enterprise Procurement Corridor," leading to numerous procurement agreements that enhance global supply chain connections [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) achieved a record signing amount of over $13 billion at the expo, covering oil, gas, and advanced technology services [2] - China Eastern Airlines signed 19 procurement agreements with suppliers from 9 countries, totaling $1.211 billion, focusing on high-tech products in the aviation sector [3] Group 2: Product Showcases and Innovations - Fosun Pharma showcased innovative products in cancer treatment and other medical fields, including the revolutionary Marie® particle therapy system, which reduces costs and allows for rapid deployment in existing medical spaces [4][5] - Rebeca, a leading company in the wig industry, presented a fashion show to highlight its products, aiming to elevate "Xuchang manufacturing" to an international level [6] Group 3: Operational Support and Safety - The smooth operation of the expo relied on comprehensive support services, with companies like Shanghai Construction Group providing maintenance for over 24,000 facilities and equipment [7] - The "Smart City Cloud Aid" emergency system was implemented to ensure safety, featuring real-time monitoring and rapid response capabilities [7] Group 4: Overall Impact and Collaboration - The active participation of listed companies at the expo illustrates a dynamic scene of openness, innovation, and collaboration, contributing to the integration of the Chinese economy with the global economy [8]

Core Insights - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation) have signed significant contracts at the 8th China International Import Expo, indicating a strong commitment to international cooperation in the energy sector [2][3][5] Group 1: Contract Details - China National Offshore Oil Corporation signed contracts exceeding $130 billion (approximately 926 billion RMB), marking a record high for the company at this expo [2] - Sinopec signed agreements with 34 partners from 17 countries, covering 24 product categories with a total procurement amount exceeding $409 billion [3] - China National Petroleum Corporation signed 43 procurement agreements with 41 global partners, totaling $174.85 billion, showing a stable increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Cumulative Agreements - The total contracts signed by the "Three Barrel Oil" companies at this expo reached nearly $714 billion (approximately 5,082 billion RMB) [3] - Since the first expo, China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation have collectively signed contracts worth approximately $5,588 billion (around 39.8 trillion RMB) with international suppliers [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - High-level executives emphasized the importance of open cooperation, energy security, green transformation, and fostering new productive forces in their speeches [5] - The geopolitical landscape, including conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine situations, has impacted the stability of the energy supply chain and investment rhythms in the oil and gas sector [5] - The executives highlighted the need for collaboration in the evolving global energy landscape, focusing on sustainable development and technological innovation [5][6] Group 4: Future Initiatives - The General Manager of China National Petroleum Corporation proposed leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the energy sector [6] - There is a push for the development and utilization of low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, and solar energy [6] - The establishment of a high-level international cooperation system for innovation and the application of artificial intelligence in the energy sector is also a priority [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent China International Import Expo (CIIE) highlighted significant procurement agreements by China's major oil companies, emphasizing the importance of multilateral cooperation, energy security, green transition, and technological innovation in the energy sector [1][4][5] Group 1: Procurement Agreements - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) signed contracts exceeding $130 billion (approximately 926 billion RMB), marking a historical high for a single CIIE [1] - China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) also secured substantial agreements, with Sinopec's procurement amounting to over $40.9 billion and CNPC's agreements totaling $17.485 billion [2] - Cumulatively, the "Three Barrel Oil" companies signed contracts worth nearly $71.4 billion (approximately 508.2 billion RMB) at this year's CIIE, contributing to a total of approximately $558.8 billion (around 3.98 trillion RMB) since the first CIIE [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, have impacted the stability of the international energy market and increased energy supply security risks [4] - The transition from conventional to unconventional oil and gas exploration and the need for technological upgrades in energy equipment are critical challenges facing the industry [4] - The global push for a green low-carbon transition is a pressing issue that energy companies must address [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - CNOOC's chairman emphasized the necessity of open cooperation for energy security and the importance of green transition for sustainable development [6] - The general manager of CNPC advocated for leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the energy sector [6] - There is a focus on advancing low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, and solar energy, alongside fostering international collaboration in innovation and artificial intelligence applications [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry for Q3 2025 [3] Core Insights - Q3 2025 saw a slight recovery in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22] - The upstream oil and gas sector experienced improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector faced challenges from weak terminal demand [34][21] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in high-quality companies within the polyester sector and large refining enterprises [6][34] Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and service industry achieved total revenue of CNY 15,797.5 billion, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21] - The net profit for the sector was CNY 930.5 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23] - The report notes that the recovery in oil prices contributed to improved performance in upstream extraction and sales [21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of CNY 16,702.0 billion in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [34] - The net profit for this sector was CNY 596.9 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [34][36] - The report indicates that while oil prices rose, the downstream refining product margins decreased, particularly in the polyester sector due to seasonal demand fluctuations [35][34] Price Trends and Margins - The report details various price trends, including the average price of Brent crude at $68.2 per barrel and the average price differences for key petrochemical products [16][18] - Specific price differences such as the ethylene-ethylene price difference at $605 per ton and the propylene-propane price difference at CNY 1,464 per ton were noted, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18] - The report emphasizes the concentration of profits in the polyester industry, with the PTA segment under pressure [15][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][34] - It also suggests that the oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with limited downside potential, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6][34]