Summary of China Shenhua's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited - **Industry**: Coal and Energy Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, China Shenhua reported a net profit of 13.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18% [4][2] - Operating revenue decreased by 21% to 69.6 billion yuan, primarily due to falling coal sales volume and prices, as well as reduced electricity sales [4][2] - The net cash flow from operating activities fell by 26% to 20.5 billion yuan [2][4] Coal Market Dynamics - The coal industry is facing significant performance challenges, with net profit declines ranging from 20% to 90% across different companies [2][6] - Coal prices at pitheads and ports are inverted, with coastal imported coal suppressing average prices [2][9] - China Shenhua's coal production decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while sales volume dropped by 15.3% [2][10] Cost and Pricing Trends - The annual long-term coal price increased by 2.4% to 502 yuan/ton, despite a decline in trade coal prices [2][11] - Production costs for self-produced coal rose, with labor costs increasing by 6.7% and repair costs by 15.5% [2][14] - The company anticipates a minimum 6% increase in overall production costs for the year [2][14] Strategic Initiatives - China Shenhua plans to continue its capital expenditure program, focusing on new mining areas, railways, and power plants to enhance resource and transportation advantages [3][18] - The company is committed to improving operational efficiency and maintaining cash flow stability despite market challenges [18][20] Market Sentiment and Investor Engagement - Investor interest in the coal sector has diminished, as evidenced by a significant drop in questions during annual online communications [2][8] - The company emphasizes the importance of detailed information disclosure to help investors understand data fluctuations and assess operational conditions [17][22] Future Outlook - Despite a weak overall market environment, China Shenhua remains optimistic about its long-term value and competitive advantages [23][22] - The company is expected to face challenges in the second quarter due to increased port inventory and lower demand during holidays, but it aims to manage costs effectively [15][20] International Projects - The Zashulan project, a 5 million ton cooperation initiative, is progressing but faces challenges due to tariffs and sanctions [21][21] - Collaboration on the Ganquan Railway with Mongolia is expected to enhance resource security in the long term, despite limited short-term contributions [21][21] Additional Important Insights - The coal market is expected to remain under pressure, with ongoing price volatility and structural changes in sales impacting overall performance [12][13] - The company is focusing on enhancing its long-term contracts to stabilize revenue amidst fluctuating market conditions [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance has declined due to falling coal prices and electricity sales, but its high dividend yield and stable earnings present long-term investment value, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.95 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year and 5.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The adjusted net profit was 11.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16.9% [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's coal production was 8.25 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Coal sales volume was 9.93 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year and 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, with self-produced coal sales at 7.85 million tons, down 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Electricity Business Performance - The company's electricity generation in Q1 2025 was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year [2] - Electricity sales volume was 47.47 billion kWh, also down 10.7% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of electricity was 0.4393 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Dividends - The company has three major coal mines under construction, expected to enhance production capacity by 2028 [4] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is projected to be 76.53%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from 2023, with a current dividend yield of 5.8% [4] - The company plans to increase the minimum cash dividend payout ratio to 65% for 2025-2027 and consider increasing the frequency of dividends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, down 21.07% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan, down 17.96% year-on-year, primarily due to a 26.6% year-on-year drop in long-term contract prices, impacting revenue by approximately 5.4 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's coal business experienced a decline in both volume and price due to reduced demand from thermal power generation, with coal consumption at coastal and inland power plants decreasing by 5.6% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively [2] - In Q1 2025, the company produced 83 million tons of commodity coal, down 1.1% year-on-year, and sold 99 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with an average price of 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The company's power generation volume decreased by 10.7% year-on-year to 50.42 billion kWh, and sales volume also fell by 10.7% year-on-year to 47.47 billion kWh, but the selling price remained relatively stable, only decreasing by 1.3 cents per kWh [3] Group 2: Business Segments - Other business segments, including railways, ports, shipping, and coal chemical industries, also saw revenue declines, with respective revenues of 10.526 billion, 1.576 billion, 716 million, and 472 million yuan, down 10.5%, 7.2%, 41.0%, and 2.3% year-on-year [3] - Despite the revenue decline, the gross margins for railway and coal chemical segments improved by 1.9 and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating potential resilience in these areas as coal demand recovers [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 50.1 billion, 50 billion, and 50.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.4%, 11.2%, and 11.3% from previous estimates [4] - The company maintains a high historical dividend payout ratio, and the importance of dividend returns in market expectations has increased, leading to a stable valuation [4] - Using the DDM valuation method, the target price for A-shares is set at 45.5 yuan, down from 46.1 yuan, while the target price for H-shares is set at 40.0 HKD, up from 37.9 HKD [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for Q1 2025, with A-share net profit at 11.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.1% [1] Financial Performance - A-share net profit was 11.9 billion yuan (EPS 0.60 yuan), with a year-on-year decline of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.1% [1] - H-share net profit was 13.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 19% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [1] - The decline in profits was attributed to falling prices and volumes in coal and electricity businesses, as well as weaker coal demand affecting transportation [1] - The gross profit margins for coal, electricity, railway, port, shipping, and chemical segments were 15.5 billion, 3.2 billion, 4.2 billion, 747 million, 60 million, and 117 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 23%, 21%, 6%, 9.5%, 56%, and an increase of 23% for shipping [1] Production and Sales - Coal production and sales volumes decreased, with production at 82.5 million tons and sales at 78.5 million tons, reflecting year-on-year declines of 1.1% and 4.7% respectively [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 484 yuan per ton, down 8.4% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Electricity sales volume decreased by 11% to 47.47 billion kWh, with an average selling price of 386 yuan per MWh, down 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 20.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26% [1] Development Trends - The company is advancing construction projects, including the New Street Taige Temple mining area and the Huanghua Port Phase V project, while planning new asset injection actions [2] - The company is expected to strengthen its coal business advantages and enhance integrated industry chain collaboration [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged, with A-share P/E ratios at 14.7 and 14.6 times, and H-share P/E ratios at 10.2 and 10.1 times [3] - The target price for A/H shares remains unchanged, with implied upside potential of 8.6% for A-shares and 16.9% for H-shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to decreased coal sales and lower electricity generation, reflecting challenging market conditions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year - Cash flow from operating activities was 20.538 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.9% year-on-year - Total assets reached 672.307 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% from the end of the previous year [1][6]. Coal Business - Coal production was 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons (down 4.7%) and purchased coal sales at 20.8 million tons (down 40.4%) - Average coal sales price was 506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The coal segment's gross profit was 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8%, with a gross margin of 30.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year - The electricity segment's gross profit was 3.21 billion yuan, down 21.2%, with a gross margin of 15.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Electricity Business - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year - Average electricity selling price was 386 yuan/MWh, down 5.6% year-on-year [3][4]. Transportation Segment - Railway transportation volume was 72.5 billion ton-km, down 11.6% year-on-year - Port loading volume was 49.7 million tons, down 8.8% year-on-year - Overall profitability in the transportation segment was pressured due to declining volumes [4]. Chemical Business - Polyethylene sales were 92.0 thousand tons, up 2.8% year-on-year - Gross profit for the chemical segment was 117 million yuan, an increase of 23.2%, with a gross margin of 7.9%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Quality - Cash flow from operating activities weakened, but the company maintained a high dividend commitment - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were 155.401 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% from the beginning of the year [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 54.335 billion yuan, 55.976 billion yuan, and 56.059 billion yuan respectively - The company maintains a strong performance outlook due to integrated operations in coal, electricity, and transportation, with a recommendation to "buy" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, reflecting challenges in the coal and electricity markets, but maintains a strong dividend outlook due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11.71 billion yuan, a decline of 28.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 82.5 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.7% [1] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 519 yuan/ton, down 12.2% year-on-year, with self-produced coal priced at 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.4% [1][2] Cost and Margin Summary - The cost of coal per ton was 363 yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the cost of self-produced coal increased slightly to 195.8 yuan/ton, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Total coal revenue was 51.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.7% year-on-year, with operating costs at 36.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% [2] - Total gross profit from coal was 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8% year-on-year [2] Electricity Generation Summary - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year, with total electricity sales at 47.47 billion kWh, also down 10.7% [2] - The average electricity price was 0.386 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while the cost per kWh was 0.354 yuan, down approximately 3.1% [2] - Total electricity revenue was 18.3 billion yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year, with electricity costs at 16.8 billion yuan, down 13.5% [3] Dividend and Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of 5.8% based on the April 25 closing price [3] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 65% for 2025-2027, an increase from the previous 60% [3] - The acquisition of Hangjin Energy is expected to enhance resource capabilities, with significant coal and power generation assets [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 297.6 billion yuan, 289.5 billion yuan, and 289.4 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 12.04%, 2.73%, and 0.03% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 48.5 billion yuan, 47.5 billion yuan, and 47.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.4%, -1.9%, and +0.12% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 15.86, 16.17, and 16.15 for the respective years, with price-to-book ratios of 1.75, 1.70, and 1.66 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, attributed to weak downstream demand across its coal and power segments, despite the acquisition of Hanjin Energy contributing to its consolidated financials [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, down 21.1%, and a net profit of 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% [1]. - The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, was 11.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 28.9% [1]. Coal Business - The company produced 8.25 million tons of coal in Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales fell by 15.3% to 9.93 million tons [2]. - The average selling price for self-produced coal was 484 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan, and for purchased coal was 586 yuan per ton, down 91 yuan [2]. - The coal business generated a gross profit of 15.2 billion yuan, a decline of 22.5% year-on-year [2]. Power Business - The company’s power generation and sales volumes were 50.42 billion kWh and 47.47 billion kWh, respectively, both down 10.7% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of electricity was 386 yuan per MWh, down 5.6%, while the gross profit margin for the power segment was 15.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [3]. Transportation Business - Revenue from the transportation segment, including rail, port, and shipping, declined due to reduced coal sales and structural adjustments, with total profits down significantly [3]. - Rail revenue was 10.5 billion yuan, down 10.5%, while port and shipping revenues were 1.6 billion yuan and 0.7 billion yuan, down 7.2% and 41% respectively [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims for stable growth in 2025, with targets set for coal production at 334.8 million tons and electricity generation at 227.1 billion kWh, exceeding 2024 levels [4]. - The board has received authorization for share buybacks to enhance market confidence, and discussions for new asset injections from the controlling shareholder are ongoing [4]. Investment Perspective - The company maintains an "outperform" rating, with projected net profits of 53.6 billion yuan, 54.4 billion yuan, and 55.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company is recognized as a leading integrated energy enterprise with strong stability and growth potential [5].

Group 1 - HSBC downgraded China Shenhua's A-shares rating to "Reduce" with a target price of 31 RMB [1] - HSBC downgraded China Shenhua's H-shares rating to "Reduce" with a target price of 25 HKD [1]

Core Insights - On April 28, China Shenhua made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 15.56 billion HKD and a net buy of 5.18 billion HKD, despite a closing price drop of 4.22% [2] Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 292.53 billion HKD, accounting for 37.87% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of 27.15 billion HKD [2] - The top traded stock was CanSino Biologics, with a trading volume of 51.75 billion HKD, followed by Alibaba and Tencent, with trading volumes of 37.36 billion HKD and 32.09 billion HKD, respectively [2] - Alibaba and Tencent were the most frequently listed stocks in the past month, each appearing 18 times on the active trading list, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect investors [2] Individual Stock Performance - The trading data for selected stocks on April 28 includes: - Tencent Holdings: 32.09 billion HKD, net sell of 5.97 billion HKD, last closing price 478.20 HKD - Alibaba: 37.36 billion HKD, net sell of 14.25 billion HKD, last closing price 115.20 HKD - China Shenhua: 15.56 billion HKD, net buy of 5.18 billion HKD, last closing price 29.50 HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19][24] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 69.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 21.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% [1][9] - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy was completed in February 2025, contributing to the company's consolidated financial statements [1][9] - The company aims for stable growth in 2025, with plans to repurchase H-shares to enhance market confidence and continue asset injections [4][18][19] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The coal production in Q1 2025 was 8.25 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 9.93 million tons, down 15.3% [2][10] - The average selling price for self-produced coal was 484 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan, and for purchased coal was 586 yuan per ton, down 91 yuan [2][10] - The coal business achieved a gross profit of 15.2 billion yuan, a decline of 22.5% year-on-year [2][10] Power Business - The company generated and sold 50.42 billion and 47.47 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in Q1 2025, both down 10.7% year-on-year [3][16] - The average selling price of electricity was 386 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 5.6% [3][16] - The gross margin for the power segment was 15.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][16] Transportation Business - Revenue from the railway, port, and shipping segments in Q1 2025 was 10.5 billion, 1.6 billion, and 0.7 billion yuan, respectively, showing declines of 10.5%, 7.2%, and 41% [4][16] - The total profit for the railway, port, and shipping segments was 3.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 0.03 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year decreases [4][16] Financial Forecast - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 53.6 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][19] - The company is recognized as a leading coal-based integrated energy enterprise with strong operational stability and a high dividend rate [5][19]