格隆汇12月26日｜西部证券研报指出，兖矿能源资源丰富，产销量居全国前列。公司拥有煤炭储量464 亿吨、可开采储量60亿吨，可开采年限超过40 年，公司煤炭主业规模居于全国前列。市场认为煤炭行 业已开始呈现过剩的格局，供需宽松下煤价可能出现较明显下滑；公司分红比例存在不确定性。但是该 行认为在供需基本平衡格局下，预计2025-2027年现货采购价格中枢依旧维持700-800元/吨的位置。公司 业绩稳健，若经营环境未现重大变化，有望继续保持较高分红比例。考虑DDM估值方法，给予公司目 标价16.27元/股。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) with a target price of 16.27 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 9.448 billion, 12.019 billion, and 14.171 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.20, and 1.41 CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -39.61%, 27.21%, and 17.91% respectively [1][20]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a stable price range of 700-800 CNY per ton from 2025 to 2027, despite market concerns about oversupply [2][16]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 464 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 60 billion tons, positioning it among the top coal producers in China [2][59]. - The company has a strong track record of cash dividends, with an average payout ratio of 49.82% since its listing, and a projected payout ratio of 53.58% for 2024 [2][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 120.47 billion, 127.92 billion, and 131.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of -13.4%, 6.2%, and 2.7% respectively [3][20]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 15.644 billion CNY, down 23.9% from the previous year, while the 2025 net profit is projected to decline significantly before recovering in subsequent years [3][20]. Business Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company operates as a comprehensive energy operator with a diverse business layout, including mining, high-end chemical materials, and renewable energy [27]. - The coal segment is expected to contribute 66% of total revenue and 83% of total profit in 2024, highlighting its critical role in the company's financial health [12][29]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with domestic coal production projected to stabilize around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [55]. - The demand for coal is anticipated to remain robust due to the ongoing reliance on thermal power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of electricity production in China [48][49].

Core Insights - In 2025, coal prices significantly declined, leading to a return of sector profitability to the lowest levels in the past decade. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests potential demand improvement and limited supply capacity utilization, which may lead to a recovery in coal price levels [2][5][6]. - The report emphasizes that with a clear supply-demand improvement and the presence of both defensive and offensive investment opportunities, the likelihood of success for selected stocks is high. If demand is strong and coal prices improve beyond expectations, attention should be given to currently undervalued stocks with low liquidity and lower profit margins [2][7]. Industry Overview - The coal industry faced a challenging year in 2025, with thermal coal prices dropping from 855 CNY/ton in 2024 to 697 CNY/ton, an 18% decrease. The profitability of the sector fell to the 30th percentile of the past decade due to weak demand driven by warm weather and sluggish manufacturing electricity consumption [5][16]. - Coking coal prices also saw a significant decline, dropping 26% from 2024's 2022 CNY/ton to 1502 CNY/ton, with profitability at the 10th percentile of the past decade. This was primarily due to strong supply, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in coking coal supply in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][16]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - For thermal coal in 2026, demand improvement is anticipated, with limited supply growth expected. The report identifies three key questions regarding market resilience: whether negative growth in thermal power will become the norm, if domestic supply can be controlled, and whether rising coal prices will increase imports [6][30]. - The report suggests that the central government's focus on controlling "involution" competition will continue to limit supply growth in 2026, despite some new production capacity coming online. Long-term resource depletion may also exert upward pressure on domestic coal prices [6][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for investment in the coal sector in 2026, highlighting the potential for a bottom reversal. It suggests that the timing for investment should align with capital flows, particularly in the first quarter when there is often a demand for increased allocation to dividend-paying sectors [7][30]. - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from a recovery in coal prices to a range of 750-800 CNY/ton. Additionally, stocks with significant growth potential and low valuations, such as Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry, are highlighted as potential targets if demand and price improvements exceed expectations [7][30].

Group 1: Company Overview - Yancoal Energy, a subsidiary of Shandong Energy Group, operates across multiple regions in China and internationally, focusing on mining, high-end chemical materials, equipment manufacturing, smart logistics, and new energy [2] - The company reported a revenue of 104.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant quarterly profit increase of 17.82% in Q3 [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The South Tun Coal Mine, a flagship project, has transitioned to intelligent and automated mining, significantly reducing the workforce needed for operations while increasing production efficiency [4][5] - Advanced technologies, such as real-time data transmission and automated cutting systems, have been implemented, achieving 100% automatic cutting rates and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5] Group 3: International Expansion - Yancoal Australia, established through the acquisition of a struggling coal mine, has become a leading coal producer in Australia, with a total recoverable reserve of 1.5 billion tons and an annual production capacity exceeding 70 million tons [6][8] - The company has successfully integrated its governance structures with international standards, enhancing its operational efficiency and market presence [9] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Yancoal Energy maintains a high dividend payout ratio, consistently distributing around 60% of its annual net profit, with cash dividends totaling 7.73 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.81 billion yuan in mid-2025 [10] - The company’s total assets reached 431.9 billion yuan by the end of Q3, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 19.6 billion yuan, ensuring robust financial health for future investments and shareholder returns [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - Recent coal prices have been declining, raising concerns about future price trends. The supply side is expected to remain tight due to year-end production cuts and the imposition of export taxes by Indonesia, while demand may improve with the new year's long-term contracts and seasonal increases in consumption [2][7] - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the short term due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the coal sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries [6][22] - As of December 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 703 CNY/ton, down 42 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 CNY/ton, up 110 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of December 18, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 580.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 9.8% year-on-year. The inventory at power plants was 134 million tons, with a usable days count of 23.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days week-on-week [17][36] - The supply side is influenced by production cuts at coal mines and the impact of export taxes from Indonesia, which could tighten supply further [7][17] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal has seen a significant decline, with a monthly drop of 105 CNY/ton (-13%), nearly erasing gains from October [7][43] - The report suggests that while coal prices are currently under pressure, improvements in supply and demand dynamics could provide a floor for prices in the near term [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal sector investments, particularly as the first quarter is typically a period of increased insurance capital inflow, which may enhance the attractiveness of coal stocks [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote industry self-discipline and capacity verification, leading to a stable increase in coal prices, with the coal industry transitioning towards high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - The coal price is anticipated to recover from its lows, with a projected stable increase in 2026. In 2025, coal prices are expected to fluctuate, with the lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 610 CNY/ton in mid-June and recovering to 813 CNY/ton by December 1 [2]. - The China coking coal price index is projected to fluctuate between 1100-1570 CNY/ton in 2025, with a significant recovery of 37.14% from its lowest point [2]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to break low-price competition and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to quality improvement. The National Energy Administration has initiated capacity verification for coal mines in several provinces, which may lead to a decline in production due to stricter safety regulations [3]. - The coal import tax reinstated on January 1, 2024, and the emphasis on controlling low-quality coal imports are expected to reduce the volume of imported coal, with a notable 11% decrease in coal and lignite imports from January to November 2025 [3]. Group 3: Demand Side Insights - Thermal power generation is expected to remain resilient, with a projected increase in demand driven by AI computing power, which is anticipated to significantly boost electricity consumption in data centers [4]. - The cumulative thermal power generation from January to October 2025 was 52,130.5 billion kWh, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but thermal power is expected to play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand during peak periods [4]. Group 4: Dividend and Investment Outlook - The coal industry is witnessing a shift towards higher dividend payouts, with companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal aiming to maintain or increase their cash dividend ratios, reflecting a broader trend of enhancing shareholder returns [5]. - The introduction of market value management assessments and the emphasis on cash dividends are expected to strengthen the investment value of coal companies, with a focus on stable and sustainable returns [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also considering companies with growth potential like Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [6].

Core Insights - The coal market is expected to gradually improve as November raw coal production continues to decline year-on-year, while daily consumption has room for growth [5][79] - The report indicates that the coal industry is rated as a "Buy" with expectations of improved profitability in Q4 2025 and 2026 [5][6] Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has continued to decline, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 716 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton week-on-week [11][80] - In the main production areas, thermal coal prices have generally decreased, with Shanxi region prices dropping by 70 RMB/ton [11][80] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate was reported at 88.3%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [21][38] - Coal inventory at major ports increased by 2.8% week-on-week, reaching 7.261 million tons [21][24] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in coal demand in 2026, while supply is expected to have limited upward potential, leading to an upward adjustment in coal prices [5][79] - The report highlights that the coal industry’s total profit for the first ten months of 2025 was 257 billion RMB, a 49% year-on-year decline [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2026 long-term contract policy, which aims to ensure stable supply and pricing in the coal market [82][85] Key Companies - Companies with stable dividends in the thermal coal sector include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [5][6] - High elasticity companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [5][6] - Companies with long-term growth potential highlighted in the report include Baofeng Energy and China Qinfa [5][6]

Core Points - The Shandong Provincial Government has announced the list of 150 individuals selected as Qilu Chief Technicians for the year 2025, following a structured selection process [1] Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement was made by the Shandong Provincial Organization Department, Human Resources and Social Security Department, and Finance Department [1] - The selection process involved recommendations, evaluations, and public announcements [1] Group 2: Selected Individuals - Notable individuals include Meng Jing from Shandong Jiuyang Group Co., Ltd., Li Xiaolei from State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, and Gao Wei from Shandong Tobacco Industry Co., Ltd. [2][3] - The list includes a diverse range of professionals from various sectors such as electric power, automotive, and manufacturing [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, emphasizing potential investment opportunities in the U.S. energy sector driven by AI and market dynamics [5][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dual weakness in supply and demand for coal in November 2025, with a year-on-year decline in raw coal production of 0.5% and a projected annual increase in thermal coal production to approximately 3.88 billion tons, albeit with a narrowing growth rate of 1.4% [1][13]. - Coal imports in November 2025 decreased by 19.9% year-on-year, totaling 44.05 million tons, with an expected annual import level of around 38 million tons, reflecting a 6.4% decline [2][19]. - The report notes a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 2.7% increase in overall industrial power generation [3][22]. - The U.S. coal market is anticipated to experience a historic reversal due to low inventory levels, explosive demand growth, and a rigid supply decline, with coal demand driven primarily by electricity generation [41]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the raw coal production was 430 million tons, showing a 0.5% year-on-year decline, while the daily average production was 14.23 million tons [1][13][12]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative raw coal production reached 4.4 billion tons, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1][13]. Imports - Coal imports in November 2025 were 44.05 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous year, with a total of 431.68 million tons imported from January to November, marking a 12.0% decline [2][19][20]. Demand - The report indicates a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation in November, with total industrial power generation increasing by 2.7% [3][22]. - The crude steel production in November 2025 was 6.987 million tons, down 10.88% year-on-year [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in the energy sector driven by AI, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [40][8]. - It also highlights the potential for significant growth in U.S. coal demand due to the increasing electricity needs of data centers, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2024 to 2030 [41].

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced a significant increase in share prices during the closing hours of trading, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the coal industry [1] Company Summaries - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) saw its stock rise by 2.23%, reaching HKD 10.09 [1] - China Shenhua Energy Company (中国神华) increased by 1.98%, with shares priced at HKD 39.22 [1] - China Coal Energy Company (中煤能源) reported a 1.56% gain, trading at HKD 10.4 [1] - Yida International (易大宗) experienced a 1.1% rise, with shares at HKD 0.92 [1]