Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF managed by Huatai-PB has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets in 2025, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) closed at a gain of 0.99% on February 11, with a trading volume of 37.2364 million yuan [1] - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50% annually, while the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - As of February 10, the fund's latest share count is 83.008 million, with a total size of 127 million yuan, reflecting a 12.63% decrease in shares and a 6.16% decrease in size since December 31, 2025 [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 595 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 29.7258 million yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the cumulative trading amount is 775 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 27.6773 million yuan [1] Group 3: Fund Holdings - The current fund manager is Li Qian, who has managed the fund since September 4, 2024, achieving a return of 52.12% during her tenure [2] - Major holdings include Shougang Resources (3.77%), Yancoal Australia (2.68%), and Hang Seng Bank (2.63%), among others, with specific holding values and percentages detailed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal stocks continue their recent upward trend, driven by supply reduction policies in Indonesia aimed at boosting coal prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Mongolian Coal (00975) increased by 5.15%, reaching HKD 12.65 [1] - Yanzhou Coal (01171) rose by 4.38%, reaching HKD 13.36 [1] - Power Development (01277) gained 3.23%, reaching HKD 1.92 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668) increased by 2.36%, reaching HKD 33.78 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 2.11%, reaching HKD 12.58 [1] Group 2: Supply Reduction Policies - Indonesian mining officials announced a significant reduction plan, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports [1] - The production quotas issued to major miners in Indonesia were reduced by 40% to 70% compared to the full-year level of 2025, as part of a strategy to boost coal prices [1] Group 3: Price Trends - Longcheng Securities reported that the logic of supply contraction driving coal prices upward has been validated [1] - Domestic coal supply has rapidly contracted due to inspections of overproduction, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices rising from a low of RMB 609 per ton to RMB 834 per ton [1] - The overall trend of coal prices internationally mirrors that of the domestic market, with exporting countries like Indonesia aiming to raise prices to improve corporate performance and enhance fiscal health [1] - Current coal prices are still considered low, with a significant distance from reasonable price levels, indicating a potential for price increases driven by policy-induced supply reductions [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to rise, with Mongolian Coal (00975) up 5.15% to HKD 12.65, Yanzhou Coal (01171) up 4.38% to HKD 13.36, and others showing similar increases [1] - Indonesian mining officials announced a significant reduction plan, leading to a halt in spot coal exports and a 40% to 70% reduction in production quotas for major miners compared to 2025 levels, aimed at boosting coal prices [1] - Longcheng Securities reported that the logic of supply contraction driving coal prices upward has been validated again [1] Group 2 - Domestic coal supply has rapidly contracted due to inspections for overproduction, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices rising from CNY 609 per ton to CNY 834 per ton [2] - The trend in coal prices overseas is similar, with countries like Indonesia aiming to raise coal prices to improve corporate performance and enhance fiscal health [2] - Current coal prices are still considered low, with a significant distance from reasonable price levels, indicating a policy-driven supply contraction to elevate coal prices [2]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,183 points, with a slight increase of approximately 0.5% [1] - Market sentiment is divided, with bullish investors expecting a rebound to 27,300 points, while bearish investors plan to short at higher levels due to declining trading volume [1] - The overall trading volume has shown a significant decrease compared to previous trading days, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) - HKEX shares experienced a slight decline, with trading volume continuing to shrink, raising concerns about whether the stock has reached a bottom [7][8] - The first short-term support level for HKEX is at 409 HKD, and if this level is breached, the stock may drop to 393 HKD [7] - Investors are advised to consider bull certificates with a redemption price below 393 HKD for better safety [7] Group 3: Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - Sunny Optical's stock closed at 59 HKD, showing a slight increase, but has been in a prolonged low-level consolidation phase [12] - The first short-term support level is at 57.4 HKD, and if breached, the stock may drop to 53.9 HKD [12] - Some investors are adopting a cautious approach by hedging with put options, despite strong buy signals from technical indicators [13] Group 4: Yancoal Australia Ltd (01171.HK) - Yancoal's stock has been performing well, reaching a high of 12.91 HKD, close to the key resistance level of 13 HKD [19] - If the stock successfully breaks through 13 HKD, it may further rise to 14.1 HKD, attracting interest in call options with a strike price of 14 HKD [19] - Investors are advised to choose options based on their expectations of the stock's short-term movements, balancing between high leverage and risk [20] Group 5: Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) - Kuaishou's stock has been in a consolidation phase, with investors optimistic about a potential rise to 80 HKD after the Spring Festival [27] - The first key resistance level is at 76.9 HKD, and if surpassed, the stock may reach 81.8 HKD [27] - Investors are encouraged to consider options with strike prices closer to the current stock price for better competitiveness [27] Group 6: Alibaba Group (09988.HK) - Alibaba's stock rose by approximately 1.65%, but trading volume has decreased, indicating a cautious market sentiment [32] - Investors are optimistic about the stock reaching the 165-170 HKD range this week, supported by the recent surge in demand for its services [32] - The short-term resistance level is around 168 HKD, and if broken, the stock could rise to 173.5 HKD [32]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF managed by Huatai-PB has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year, indicating potential challenges in attracting investment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) closed at a 0.67% increase with a trading volume of 41.35 million yuan on February 9 [1]. - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50% annually, while the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - As of February 6, the fund's latest share count was 83.08 million, with a total asset size of 126 million yuan, reflecting a 12.63% decrease in shares and a 7.15% decrease in total assets since December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the past 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the fund reached 569 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 28.44 million yuan [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, the fund has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 714 million yuan over 26 trading days, averaging 27.45 million yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - The current fund manager, Li Qian, has managed the fund since September 4, 2024, achieving a return of 49.36% during her tenure [2]. - Major holdings in the fund include Shougang Resources (3.77%), Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.70%), and Hang Seng Bank (2.63%), among others, with the total holdings reflecting a diversified portfolio [2].

Group 1: Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) price increased to 692 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 7 [1] - Datong thermal coal price (Q5500) decreased to 567 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [1] - International thermal coal prices: Newcastle NEWC5500 at 76.3 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week; ARA6000 at 101.6 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Prices - Beijing Tangshan port coking coal price decreased to 1700 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] - Linfen coking coal price decreased to 1570 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 6 [2] - Australian hard coking coal price at 265.6 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption - Sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization at 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week; coking coal mine utilization at 86.67%, down 2.5 percentage points [2] - Coastal provinces' coal consumption decreased by 16.3 million tons/day, down 7.22% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] - Inland provinces' coal consumption decreased by 81.8 million tons/day, down 18.1% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Current coal market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy support [4] - Indonesian government reduced coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, impacting global coal supply [4] - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain constrained, with potential for price recovery due to demand resilience [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Coal sector remains attractive due to high performance, cash flow, and dividends; recommended to focus on quality coal companies [6] - Suggested companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia among others [6] - Emphasis on the importance of coal assets as they are undervalued and have high potential for appreciation [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal sector as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2]. - The report anticipates a new upward cycle for coal and downstream thermal power demand starting in 2026, driven by significant production cuts in Indonesia, which are expected to accelerate global coal prices [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [4]. Market Tracking - As of February 5, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 702 RMB/ton, up 2 RMB/ton (0.3%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations of a slight recovery in demand during the off-season [4][6]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the average domestic price is expected to end a four-year decline and begin to rise in 2026, with a projected average price of 683 RMB/ton for Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao [4][26]. - The report highlights that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton (-4.5%) from the previous week [34]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao decreased by 20,000 tons (-3.5%), with total inventories at northern ports down by 184,500 tons (-5.5%) [21]. - The report indicates an increase in railway inflow to Qinhuangdao Port, with a total of 479,000 tons, up 76,000 tons (18.9%) from the previous week [25]. International Coal Prices - The report mentions that the Newcastle coal price has increased by 2 USD/ton (2.3%) as of February 5, 2026, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal [16][41]. - Indonesian coal prices have also seen an increase, with Q4200 coal priced at 48 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton (1.2%) [19].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2]. - The report anticipates that the coal and downstream thermal power demand will enter a new upward cycle starting in 2026, driven by significant production cuts in Indonesia, which are expected to accelerate global coal prices into an upward trend [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [4]. Market Tracking - As of February 5, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 702 RMB/ton, up 2 RMB/ton (0.3%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations of a slight recovery in demand during the off-season [4][6]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the average domestic price is expected to end a four-year decline and begin to recover in 2026, with a projected average price of around 683 RMB/ton for Q5500 coal [4][26]. - The report highlights that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton (-4.5%) from the previous week [34]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 2.663 million tons, down 4.9% from the previous week [51]. - The report indicates a decrease in inventories at major ports, with Qinhuangdao's inventory at 5.55 million tons, down 3.5% from the previous week [21]. International Coal Prices - The report mentions that the Newcastle coal price has increased by 2 USD/ton (2.3%) as of February 5, 2026, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal [16][41]. - Indonesian coal prices have also seen an increase, with Q4200 coal priced at 48 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton (1.2%) [19].

Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the advantage of imported coal narrowing further [7][81] - The overall profitability of the coal mining industry is expected to improve in 2026 after a significant decline in 2025 [7][84] Market Dynamics - The CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 698 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 RMB/ton [13][82] - The average daily consumption of coal in coastal power plants is 208,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [22][28] - The coal inventory at major ports decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [22][28] Industry Insights - The coal mining industry saw a profit total of 352 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 42% [7][84] - The expected supply-demand balance in 2026 is anticipated to support coal prices, with a significant reduction in supply growth [7][84] - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to enhance the fulfillment rate due to increased market factors [84][85] Key Companies - Major companies with stable dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [7] - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy Co., and Baofeng Energy [7]

摩根大通 将 兖矿能源 A股评级上调至中性。 ...