Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.50 [7]. Core Views - The company emphasizes that despite short-term performance pressure due to a warm winter and tariff impacts leading to a slight decline in retail gas volume, it aims to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [1]. - The report suggests that the increase in sustainable profit contribution and improved free cash flow will lead to a revaluation of the company's value, indicating a potential buying opportunity after recent price corrections [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Gas Volume and Margin Improvement - From January to April, the company's retail gas volume experienced a slight year-on-year decline, which was less than the national average decline of 2.2%. Industrial gas volume decreased due to tariff impacts on the export industry, while residential gas volume grew, supported by an increase in connected users. However, the average household gas consumption declined due to the warm winter [2]. - The overall gross margin improved slightly year-on-year, with better recovery in residential gross margin compared to the overall margin, and stable gross margin in industrial and commercial sectors. LNG spot prices have decreased, which is expected to further lower procurement costs in 2025 [2]. Impact of Real Estate Downturn and Service Segmentation - The company reported a year-on-year decline in new residential connections from January to April, with expectations of a 20% decrease in new home connections for 2025. The proportion of old home renovations is expected to rise to 30%, which may continue to suppress profit margins [3]. - There is a divergence in performance between comprehensive energy and comprehensive services, with comprehensive energy revenue growing year-on-year, while comprehensive services remained flat due to public sentiment impacts and government oversight [3]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure Optimization - The company has officially launched a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 3% of its shares, which would require approximately HKD 1.5 billion based on the closing price on June 4. The company has also committed to increasing the dividend payout ratio for 2025, with total dividend expenditure expected to be no less than HKD 2.1 billion if the DPS remains flat year-on-year [4]. - Capital expenditures are being optimized, with regular expenditures directed towards comprehensive energy, while there is limited room for reducing expenditures related to pipeline replacement and new connections [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at HKD 4.4 billion, HKD 4.9 billion, and HKD 5.5 billion respectively, and EPS projected at HKD 1.90, HKD 2.13, and HKD 2.38, reflecting a CAGR of 10% over three years [5]. - The target price of HKD 28.50 is based on a 15x PE for 2025E, which is above the five-year historical average of 12x PE. The increasing contribution of sustainable business profits is expected to reduce performance uncertainty and lead to a revaluation of the company's value [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and natural gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][10]. Core Insights - The Shandong provincial government has introduced its first local guidelines for the marketization of renewable energy pricing, which is expected to stabilize returns for existing projects and provide a model for other provinces [5][7]. - Global natural gas prices have seen a slight rebound due to tightening supply and increased demand for LNG exports, with specific price movements noted in various regions [10][19]. - The report highlights the potential for LNG import prices to decrease further in the second half of 2025, benefiting downstream gas companies [11][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Shandong's New Energy Market Guidelines - Shandong's new energy pricing reform outlines that existing projects will participate in market pricing at a rate of 0.3949 yuan per kWh, aligning with the provincial coal benchmark price [5][6]. - The guidelines emphasize strong connectivity with existing policies, ensuring stability for existing projects while introducing competitive elements for new projects [6][7]. - The implementation of these guidelines is expected to serve as a model for other provinces, enhancing the operational efficiency and market strategies of renewable energy companies [7][8]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Demand and Price Rebound - As of May 9, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $3.22/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.84%, while European prices also saw a rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [10][19]. - The report notes that the overall LNG import cost in China has remained below 4000 yuan per ton, with a significant decrease of 18.4% from the year's peak [11][29]. - The anticipated decline in international oil prices is expected to further lower LNG import prices in China, benefiting city gas companies [11][29]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utilities, environmental protection, power equipment, and gas sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the review period [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the issuance of competitive configuration announcements for renewable energy projects in various provinces, indicating ongoing investment and growth in the sector [44][46]. - The report also highlights significant corporate announcements, including financing and profit distribution plans from key players in the energy sector, reflecting a proactive approach to capital management and shareholder returns [48][49].

Business Performance - At the end of 2024, CR Gas's portfolio consisted of 276 city gas projects across 25 provinces, including 15 provincial capitals and 76 prefecture-level cities, with an annual gas sales volume of approximately 39.9 billion cubic meters and 60.62 million customers[8][12]. - The total connectable population reached 99.98 million households, indicating significant market penetration and growth potential[12]. - The Group's total natural gas sales volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 39.91 billion cubic meters, with revenue rising by 1.4% to HK$102.68 billion[23]. - The annual gas sales volume of 39.9 billion cubic meters reflects a robust demand for natural gas in the regions served by CR Gas[12]. - The total gas sales volume rose by 2.9% from 38.78 billion m³ to 39.91 billion m³[72]. - The total number of newly connected residential users in 2024 was 2.693 million[77]. - The Group's gas sales volume from 2008 to 2024 is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.45%[43]. - The Group's natural gas consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2000 to 2024, while production is expected to grow at 9.64%[34]. Strategic Initiatives - CR Gas aims to leverage favorable operating conditions to expand through both organic and external growth, enhancing its position as a leader in the gas industry[10]. - The company is committed to delivering safe and reliable clean energy while providing efficient services to customers, contributing to sustainable performance for shareholders[10]. - The Group's focus on urban gas core business development has solidified its leading position in the market[31]. - The Group's proactive exploration of the gas value chain and customer base aims to identify new business opportunities[20]. - The Group plans to adhere to a "1+2+N" business strategy in 2025, focusing on clean energy development and enhancing its natural gas resource pool[65]. Financial Performance - The Group achieved a turnover of HK$102.68 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[53]. - Profit for the year decreased by 18.6% to HK$5,748,294 from HK$7,058,886 in 2023[123]. - The attributable profit to the owners of the Company decreased by 21.7% to HK$4.09 billion compared to HK$5.22 billion in the previous year[137]. - Operating profit declined by 15.9% to HK$7.74 billion, and cash generated from operations fell from HK$10.16 billion in 2023 to HK$7.00 billion in 2024[71]. - The overall gross profit margin was 17.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in the share of revenue from gas connection from 10.8% to 9.0%[53]. - The average gas tariff decreased to RMB 3.42 per cubic meter from RMB 3.50 in 2023[130]. - The Group's debt to capitalisation ratio improved to 26.4% from 29.5% in 2023[126]. Operational Efficiency - The Group's operational strategy includes a commitment to professional development opportunities for employees, fostering a skilled workforce to support its growth objectives[10]. - The management team is focused on improving operational efficiency to achieve sustainable organic growth[74]. - Benchmarking initiatives have been implemented across all business sectors to enhance performance and identify gaps[82]. - The Group has 84 regional centers to manage daily operations of city gas projects, enhancing service and operational efficiency[86]. - Centralized procurement accounted for 85.54% of total material procurement expenditure by the end of 2024, leading to cost reductions while ensuring quality[89]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The Chinese government emphasizes the promotion of green and low-carbon development, which aligns with CR Gas's strategy to enhance operational efficiency and provide clean energy solutions[9][10]. - The Group's ESG rating was maintained at A by MSCI, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development and compliance with environmental standards[49]. - As of the end of 2024, the Group's carbon dioxide emission intensity decreased by 61.28% and comprehensive energy consumption per RMB 10,000 of revenue decreased by 35.59% compared to the end of 2020[118]. - Total charitable donations amounted to HK$3,103,600, with cumulative volunteer services of 74,100 persons/times in 2024[119]. Governance and Management - The Group is committed to enhancing its corporate governance standards by adopting best practices and a Corporate Governance Handbook[58]. - The Group's management team consists of professionals with significant expertise in financial, legal, commercial, and engineering disciplines[108]. - The Group has established 6 audit centers nationwide to enhance audit and risk control functions[112]. - Mr. WANG Gaoqiang has over 30 years of experience in corporate finance, internal audit, internal control, risk management, and corporate governance[183]. - Ms. GE Lu has over 30 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry, specializing in supply chain management and logistics management[188].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - Concerns over economic recession due to tariffs have led to a significant drop in US gas prices, while tariffs have temporarily halted the recovery of European gas prices, with domestic prices remaining stable [1][10] - The report highlights a supply-demand analysis indicating a 2.1% week-on-week increase in total gas supply in the US, while total demand increased by 7% week-on-week [15][17] - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand in the domestic market [50][51] Price Tracking - As of April 17, 2025, US HH gas prices decreased by 20.6%, European TTF prices increased by 6.8%, and domestic LNG prices remained stable with a week-on-week change of -0.5% [10][12] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US reached 1,124 billion cubic feet per day, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the US gas market is experiencing a week-on-week price drop of 20.6% due to tariff-induced inflation concerns, while total demand has increased by 7% [15][17] - In Europe, gas consumption for March 2025 was 60.5 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [17] Pricing Progress - The report indicates that 61% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.20 yuan per cubic meter [39] - The pricing mechanism is expected to continue evolving, with potential for further adjustments in the future [39] Important Events - The report details the increase of tariffs on US LNG to 140%, noting that the impact on supply is limited due to the small proportion of US LNG in China's total imports [46] - Ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict are highlighted as a significant factor influencing European gas supply dynamics [49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the evolving pricing mechanisms, particularly highlighting New Energy and China Gas as key players [50][51] - It suggests monitoring companies with strong long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao [51]

Macro Strategy - The March PMI data indicates three characteristics of economic recovery: the pre-positioning of work due to the Spring Festival, better recovery of manufacturing demand compared to supply, and weak consumer service consumption [1][30]. - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the service PMI is at 50.3%, also up by 0.3 percentage points [1][30]. - The new order index for manufacturing increased by 0.7 points to 51.8%, indicating stronger demand recovery compared to supply [1][30]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the need for macro policies to be adjusted in response to potential economic pressures in the second quarter, particularly in exports and real estate [1][30]. - The construction industry PMI rose to 53.4%, reflecting seasonal recovery, but remains at a historically low level for this time of year [1][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of tariff increases on exports and the ongoing trends in the real estate market [1][30]. Company Analysis - The report provides insights into various companies, including their performance forecasts and investment ratings, such as the significant growth in sales for Lao Pu Gold and the strategic partnerships for Jianghuai Automobile [9][15]. - Companies like Yubiquitous and Geli Pharmaceutical are noted for their innovative product developments and market potential, with investment ratings maintained at "buy" [11][12]. - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals reported a revenue of 275.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.75% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 4.553 billion yuan, up 20.82% [14]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the overall financial performance of companies is under scrutiny, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for several firms based on market conditions and operational challenges [15][19]. - Companies such as China Communications Construction Company and Orient Securities are highlighted for their revenue growth and strategic adjustments in response to market dynamics [22][23]. - The report also notes the importance of cash flow management and cost control in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating market conditions [22][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with a reported revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.90%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.74% to HKD 4.09 billion [7] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for the year, corresponding to a payout ratio of 53% of core profits and a dividend yield of 4.1% [7] - The report highlights that the company's core profit growth was below expectations, primarily due to slower growth in retail gas volume and revenue from integrated energy and services [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue is projected at HKD 102,676 million, with a slight increase of 0.90% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 4,088 million, reflecting a decrease of 21.74% [1][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 1.77, with a P/E ratio of 13.13 [1][8] Business Segments - **City Gas**: Revenue increased by 3.4% to HKD 88.80 billion, with retail gas volume up by 2.9% to 39.91 billion cubic meters [7] - **Connection Services**: Revenue decreased by 15.0% to HKD 9.25 billion, with new residential connections down by 15.8% [7] - **Integrated Services**: Revenue grew by 4.0% to HKD 4.21 billion, with a projected growth rate of 20%-30% for 2025 [7] - **Integrated Energy**: Revenue increased by 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion, with energy sales volume up by 27.2% [7] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a free cash flow of HKD 2.58 billion for 2024, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year [7] - The total capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at HKD 4.42 billion, a decrease from the previous year [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 4.46 billion for 2025 and HKD 4.90 billion for 2026, with a new estimate of HKD 5.38 billion for 2027 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with a reported revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.90%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.74% to HKD 4.09 billion [7] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for the year, corresponding to a payout ratio of 53% of core profits and a dividend yield of 4.1% [7] - The report indicates that the company's core profit growth is not meeting expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected retail gas volume growth and revenue from integrated energy and services [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue is projected at HKD 102,676 million, with a slight increase of 0.90% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 4,088 million, reflecting a decrease of 21.74% [1][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 1.77, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.13 [1][8] Business Segments - **City Gas**: Revenue increased by 3.4% to HKD 88.80 billion, with a segment profit margin of 65.1%. Retail gas volume grew by 2.9% to 39.91 billion cubic meters [7] - **Connection Services**: Revenue decreased by 15.0% to HKD 9.25 billion, with a significant drop in new connections for residential users [7] - **Integrated Services**: Revenue grew by 4.0% to HKD 4.21 billion, with a projected growth rate of 20%-30% for 2025 [7] - **Integrated Energy**: Revenue increased by 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion, with energy sales volume rising by 27.2% [7] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a free cash flow of HKD 2.58 billion for 2024, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year. Capital expenditures are projected at HKD 4.42 billion [7] - The dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.95 per share, with expectations to increase the dividend amount or payout ratio in 2025 [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 4.46 billion for 2025 and HKD 4.90 billion for 2026, with a growth rate of approximately 9.2% to 9.9% for the following years [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - On March 31, 2025, Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 6.14 billion, 4.18 billion, and 4.06 billion respectively [1][2] Group 1: Southbound Trading Performance - In the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the top three companies by trading volume were Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 6.14 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 4.18 billion, and SMIC (00981) with 4.06 billion [1][2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the top three companies were Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 3.89 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) with 2.67 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with 2.48 billion [1][2] Group 2: Net Inflow and Outflow - In the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 132 million, Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 371 million, and SMIC (00981) had a net inflow of 40.28 million [2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 209 million, while Alibaba-W (09988) and Tencent Holdings (00700) experienced net outflows of 585 million and 253 million respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 20.80, representing a potential downside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 28.20 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's operational and profit growth for 2024 is under pressure, necessitating a rebalancing of its future profit structure [2]. - The core profit for 2024 is expected to be significantly below market expectations, with a forecast of HKD 4.15 billion, which is 30% lower than the previous expectations [7]. - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year decrease in residential connections, which is a major factor contributing to the lower-than-expected profitability [7]. - The retail gas volume growth for the year is projected at 2.9%, below the anticipated 5%, influenced by a warmer winter [7]. - The dividend policy appears irregular, causing confusion among investors, with a projected decline in the full-year dividend payout ratio to 52% from 2023 [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 101.27 billion in 2023 to HKD 102.68 billion in 2024, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decline from HKD 5.22 billion in 2023 to HKD 4.09 billion in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year decrease of 21.7% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain flat at HKD 1.79 for 2024, with a slight increase to HKD 1.89 in 2025 [3][18]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2025, indicating a declining valuation trend [3][18]. Operational Data - The residential gas sales volume is expected to increase from 9.44 million cubic meters in 2023 to 10.04 million cubic meters in 2024, representing a growth rate of 2.9% [10]. - The company anticipates a decrease in new residential connections, with projections of 2.69 million in 2024, down from 3.37 million in 2023 [10]. - The retail gas margin is expected to slightly improve to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter by 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The core profit was HKD 4.15 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, while the profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.7% to HKD 4.09 billion [1]. - The gas sales business demonstrated resilience with a total gas sales volume of 39.91 billion cubic meters, up 2.9% year-on-year. The average gas sales cost decreased to HKD 2.89 per cubic meter, leading to a gross margin of HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, an increase of 0.02 year-on-year [2]. - The new user connection growth slowed down due to a decline in new construction in the real estate sector, with new residential users decreasing by 15.8% to 2.791 million. The profit from the connection business fell by 27.6% to HKD 2.93 billion [3]. - The comprehensive service business achieved a revenue of HKD 4.21 billion, with a profit of HKD 1.4 billion, while the comprehensive energy business saw a revenue increase of 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion [4]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, proposing a core dividend of HKD 0.95 per share, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 53% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was HKD 102.68 billion, a 1.4% increase year-on-year. Core profit was HKD 4.15 billion, with a slight increase of 0.02%. Profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.7% to HKD 4.09 billion [1]. Gas Sales Business - Total gas sales volume reached 39.91 billion cubic meters, up 2.9% year-on-year. The average gas sales cost was HKD 2.89 per cubic meter, down by HKD 0.1, resulting in a gross margin of HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, an increase of HKD 0.02 year-on-year. The profit from gas sales was HKD 7.975 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase [2]. User Connections - New residential user connections decreased by 15.8% to 2.791 million due to a decline in real estate construction. The profit from the connection business fell by 27.6% to HKD 2.93 billion, with a profit margin of 31.6%, down approximately 5.5 percentage points [3]. Comprehensive Services and Energy - The comprehensive service business generated HKD 4.21 billion in revenue, with a profit of HKD 1.4 billion. The comprehensive energy business saw a revenue increase of 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 360 million, a 33.6% increase [4]. Dividend Policy - The company proposed a core dividend of HKD 0.95 per share, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 53% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects pressure on connection business in 2025, but growth in gas volume and gross margin indicates resilience. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are HKD 4.33 billion, HKD 5.02 billion, and HKD 5.87 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 5.9%, 15.9%, and 17% respectively [5].